NBA Picks 2018- Play Offs First Round Series (April 24-29)

I have split the NBA Play Offs First Round Picks into two threads with the first covering the first four games of each of the Series being played and the remaining games held in this one.

I won't lie, I have been disappointed with my Picks so far but I have also not been afforded a lot of luck with my selections. That was highlighted on Sunday with a couple of teams blowing big leads and missed Free Throws costing me.

It is a long post-season though and plenty of time to get this season back on track beginning with the three picks made from Tuesday's Game 5 action.


Tuesday 24th April
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics Pick: All four games in this First Round Play Off Series have been won by the home team, but both the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks will have felt they could have earned a road in that time too. The Milwaukee Bucks avoided a devastating loss in Game 4 despite blowing a huge lead they held in the middle of the Third Quarter, but the way they rallied together in the Fourth Quarter will have given them a boost in confidence.

The Celtics will feel they could have been in a position to complete a Series win on Tuesday if they had just had a little more fortune go their way in Game 4. However they would have been encouraged by another strong Offensive output from a young roster missing their big time playmakers.

Game 5 looks like one that is going to be tightly contested like three of the four games in the Series have been.

You can understand why that has been the case with the two teams matching up well with each other and the strengths and weaknesses meaning both the Bucks and Celtics have been able to make strong runs. The Bucks continue to be the more effective team from the field, but they have generally lost the turnover battle and also have struggled on the glass with Boston earning plenty of second chance points with their power on the Offensive rebounding.

It has led to four games which have all surpassed the total points line and I think there is every chance we could see the same in Game 5.

The spread looks very difficult to call with a reasonable case being made for both Boston and Milwaukee to cover. That means the better option looks to be to take Game 5 to become the latest to cover the total points line as the last four have done.

Only the first game went to Overtime, but there have been chances for at least one more to go that way. It could be the case in Game 5, but regardless I would think the teams are doing enough Offensively to cover the total points in this one.

The 'over' has been the dominant trend in recent Boston and Milwaukee games and this Series has continued that. With that in mind I will back the 'over' and look for the two teams to continue pushing the pace like they have throughout this First Round Series.


Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: After dropping Game 2, the Philadelphia 76ers have shown the resiliency and confidence this young team have by winning back to back road games at the Miami Heat to move into a 3-1 lead in the First Round Series. Most of the fans attending Game 5 will be expecting their team to make it through to the Conference Semi Finals and the 76ers are not downplaying any expectations.

Joel Embiid returned in Game 3 and he has helped the 76ers, but the continued hot shooting from three point range has made it tough for the Miami Heat to stay with them. The Heat made a big effort in Game 4 to try and level the Series but fell agonisingly short on the day and picking themselves up won't be easy despite the Play Off experience this roster have.

The layers are not expecting much from the Miami Heat if you take the point spread into consideration. The Heat have been set as a double digit underdog in Game 5 which is 3 points higher than they were when visiting here in Game 1 and Game 2 and I think the Miami players have to use that as motivation for a big performance in Game 5.

However the Philadelphia 76ers are feeling good about their chances not only in this Series but they have also been speaking about going all the way to win the NBA Championship. Embiid himself refuses to accept that it is all about the future for the 76ers and believes trusting 'The Process' has given the team enough to win the wide open Eastern Conference and from there anything is possible.

For now the concentration has to be to get through to the Conference Semi Finals and then get a few days of rest while waiting for the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks to complete their own First Round Series.

With the way Philadelphia have continued to shoot from the three point range they are very dangerous and it is hard to back Miami with the points just because the home team are capable of taking it away from them. The pace in all of the games in the Series have seen both teams score at least 102 points in each of them and I can't imagine either team is going to take their foot off the gas in this Game 5.

Miami know they have to try and stay with the 76ers as long as possible and so they will be looking for their own three pointers to land, and we know the home team are going to take plenty of shots from beyond the arc. A chippy Series could also see teams get into foul trouble early in Quarters which could extend this Game 5 and I think the two teams combine to cover the total points line.

There have been at least 216 points scored in the two games in Philadelphia in this Series and I will look for Game 5 to get to that mark too.


San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors Pick: The San Antonio Spurs avoided a sweep at the hands of the Golden State Warriors for the second season in a row, but extending this First Round Series for long enough to get it back to Texas is a big ask for the team.

All credit has to be given to the Spurs for the effort put into Game 4 as they took advantage of a sloppy night in the office for the Golden State Warriors. Steve Kerr was not happy that his team did not match the intensity of their hosts whose desperation to avoid the sweep was clear from the opening tip off.

Kerr won't be overly concerned and may even feel the loss will just get his Warriors to refocus again. Stephen Curry is on the road to recovery, but the Spurs would love to be able to give Curry a few more days to get ready for the Conference Semi Final Series and not have to rush him back if the Spurs have extended the Series.

Game 4 was a poor shooting day for the Warriors but they will be expected to bounce back at home where they have remained dominant. Both wins against the Spurs in this First Round Series have come very easily for the Golden State Warriors and it will take something special for the Spurs to keep themselves competitive in this one.

San Antonio have admitted their struggles from the field and they can't expect Golden State to be as poor as they were in Game 4. There will be moments where the Spurs will have their successes, but I think the Warriors are going to double down on their Defensive play as they look to get past this team and that should also mean more shots in transition up the other end of the court.

All credit has to be given to the Spurs to dig deep and force Game 5, but I think the Golden State Warriors win comfortably at home against them again.


Wednesday 25th April
Honestly I can't put a finger on the kind of weird crap that has gone on at the end of games to cost me a really poor run during the NBA Play Offs. Missed Free Throws, late coldness from the Field or blowing big leads, it has been a frustrating time to say the least.

It can't go on with some many bad breaks, but that doesn't make me feel much better.

Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: This First Round Series has been far more competitive than many thought it would be although the Indiana Pacers were very keen to let everyone know they are not going to lie down for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The strong regular season record against the Cavaliers helped their mental approach to this First Round Series, although Indiana have to show they can cope with dropping home court advantage which had been stolen away in Game 1.

Poor starts have become a feature of the Indiana performances in the last three games in the Play Offs and that has to be a worry. There is only so many times a team can dig deep and fight back before the physical and emotional effort takes a toll, but the Pacers are speaking with plenty of confidence.

They have not been happy with the execution in the Fourth Quarter of their loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 4 though and you have to expect the Pacers will look to attack the rim and force their way onto the foul line. They will need more from Victor Oladipo who has struggled with his shot since Game 1 especially when it comes to efficiency on the court.

Cleveland were able to use Oladipo's shooting issues to get away from the Pacers in the Fourth Quarter of Game 4, and they were encouraged by the performances of some of the younger players on the roster. Getting a boost off the bench is critical for the Cavaliers if they are going to win this Series which has become a best of three.

George Hill could return to give the Cavaliers another boost ahead of Game 5 at home and LeBron James has clearly decided to take this team on his back with the levels he has been producing since Game 1. That alone makes Cleveland very dangerous, but they have struggled to really put Indiana away even when they have gotten into big leads and the Pacers will be holding onto that.

Another close game looks to be the outcome of this one and so taking the points with the road underdog is the sensible play. Indiana have managed to play Cleveland close throughout this Series as well as in the regular season and the only concern is that their players wilt in the road atmosphere.

That hasn't happened in previous visits and they match up well enough with Cleveland to take the points.


Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors Pick: Just when you think the Toronto Raptors are ready to show why they finished with the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference and exorcise some of their Play Off ghosts, the tension ramps up for a Game 5 back in Canada. The Raptors won the first two games at home to move into a 2-0 lead over the Washington Wizards, but the Wizards have responded by holding serve in their two home games to level this First Round Series.

Those two home wins will have given the Washington Wizards a real belief that they go on and stun the Toronto Raptors in the post-season again. The Wizards will know they have benefited from some poor Offensive schemes run by the Raptors in Game 4 where they blew a lead in the Fourth Quarter against a Wizards team who had struggled initially.

One of the key factors was the decision by Toronto to move away from the three point shot which had been key for them throughout the season. You have to expect they are going to go back to basics at home with the ball movement back to the usual standards and you would have to anticipate a high amount of three pointers in this one.

Whether they fall or not is important for the Raptors who can't get away from what has been key for them throughout the regular season. They are looking to avoid a three game losing run for the first time this season and Toronto have to be confident with the Washington Wizards not as strong on the road as they tend to be at home.

John Wall was huge for Washington in Game 4 and it is key for Toronto to make life a little more difficult for the Point Guard if they are going to have success. Wall took over the game as soon as Bradley Beal fouled out, but Washington were aided significantly by the Raptors.

I don't think that happens again and I expect a far better all around performance from Toronto who just got away from what had built their lead in the Series and in Game 4. They have played well off back to back losses all season and teams who have lost a Play Off Game as a favourite and then play the next game at home have a very strong record of covering against the spread.

It could be another fun scoring game despite the poor Field Goal percentage of Game 4, but I am looking for a bounce back from the Raptors as they win and cover.


Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The NBA Play Offs are supposed to be a tough environment in which future stars have to go through a difficult experience that helps them grow. Two players who are in their rookie seasons are tearing up those expectations though and Donovan Mitchell may be able to lead the Utah Jazz into the Conference Semi Finals in the same manner Ben Simmons has with the Philadelphia 76ers.

I like both players and I think they are going to be big names in this League, but the edge for me goes to Mitchell who doesn't have the same supporting cast as Simmons enjoys in Philadelphia.

Mitchell has outplayed the likes of Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George in this First Round Series and that has been a big reason the Utah Jazz are leading 3-1 with a chance to close the show on Wednesday. The Jazz will be expecting a reaction from the Thunder who were blown out in Game 4 especially back in front of their home fans, but Utah are also confident with the way they have been playing.

Surprisingly they have found plenty of creases in the Oklahoma City Defensive schemes and the Ricky Rubio numbers have also been a big help for the Jazz in being able to break down the Thunder.

Some way Oklahoma City have to find a better consistency and they were not impressed with the lack of three pointers made in Game 4 during the blow out. This is a team with some of the finest shot makers in the NBA, but the 'Big Three' have struggled in the Fourth Quarter which is a big reason they are in the hole they are in.

Westbrook is key having struggled with his shot from the Field as he is never going to take a backwards step. The Thunder need more efficiency from their leader if they are going to find a way back into this Series especially if Utah continue shooting as well as they have been.

That shooting suggests this is another game in this First Round Series which can surpass the total points line with three of the four managing to do that. Both teams play fast and they will look to make hay from the three point mark and I think the Offenses have been strong enough to think they can break down the Defensive schemes put in front of them again.


Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Houston Rockets look to have rallied at just the right time to make sure they are not dragged into a deep Series with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Now the Rockets can close out this First Round Play Off Series with another win on Wednesday as they host Game 5 against the Timberwolves.

The shots began falling in the Third Quarter as the Rockets fired away in a blow out win on the road, and much depends on whether the players can find their groove quickly in this one too.

Houston go as far as their three point shooting will carry them as it is very difficult for the Minnesota team to find the same Offensive output from that distance. If Houston are on, Minnesota simply don't have enough to stay with them.

It's hard to know if that will happen but Houston have momentum behind them.

Add in the mental blow Minnesota took when dropping Game 4 and this feels like a Game 5 which is leaning towards a home blow out.

Backing teams to cover double digits in the Play Offs is not an easy choice, but Houston do have the power to pull away and beat Minnesota fairly comfortably. James Harden found his groove in Game 4 and if he can pick up from where he left off, Houston can win a second home game in this Series by a wide margin.


Thursday 26th April
On a day when the NBA Picks went 3-1 to snap what has been a tremendously poor run, you would think I would be pretty satisfied with the way things went.

However my irritation wasn't completely eradicated as more bad breaks affected the Picks which has been a feature of the First Round of the Play Offs.

The Thunder and Jazz had reached 206 points combined with two minutes left and the Thunder up by 8 points. I have never, NEVER, seen a situation where there wouldn't be at least one or two fouls given up by the team chasing to get back into the game, even when they haven't made a couple of shots of their own.

Instead the Jazz allowed the time to run down with neither team scoring a basket in that time which meant Game 5 somehow finished 'under' the total points. That has to be the most ridiculous loss I have suffered in the last couple of weeks without a doubt.


Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: I really don't know how I feel about this First Round Series especially after seeing the return of Marcus Smart stunt the Milwaukee Bucks ability from the field. If the Boston Celtics can restrict the home team to a sub 40% shooting day again they have every chance of closing this Series out, but you have to think the Bucks are going to make some adjustments to get themselves going.

Smart's energy was huge in Game 5 but despite the limiting of the Bucks, Boston still only narrowly won.

Game 6 feels like it has all the makings of another close one although home court has been the key to this Series so far and I am leaning towards Milwaukee finding a way to win.

However I can see this one going right down to the wire and so the spread is right on the money. The Celtics may have the momentum, but I am expecting Milwaukee to make the necessary adjustments to get their scoring back on track and I am finding it very difficult to pick a side.

My lean is that Boston will stay within the number, but I am not convinced so I will make this a zero unit selection.


Friday 27th April
Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards Pick: This First Round NBA Play Off Series has been far closer than most would have anticipated, but the pressure is on the Number 8 Seed Washington Wizards to try and extend it to a Game 7 when they host the Number 1 Seed Toronto Raptors. All five previous games have been won by the home team, but they have all been relatively close with very little determining the outcome.

Sometimes it simply comes down to whether the shots fall at the right time or not and that was the case in Game 5 which was incredibly close until the final five minutes. The Wizards do feel they let one slip as they led in the final Quarter, but their shots went ice cold down the stretch and the Toronto Raptors were able to make the plays to pull away.

Toronto may feel they should have been in with a chance to close the Series in Game 5 as they had a similar ending in Game 4 as the Washington Wizards suffered in Game 5.

It should mean both teams enter Game 6 with a confident frame of mind as they know they have the tools to get the better of the other. The Wizards have a proud recent record at home in the Play Offs and showed their powers of recovery in Game 4, while their dominance of the boards in Game 5 was a major reason they were in a position to steal one on the road.

On the other hand Toronto got back to the basics which helped them finish with the best record in the Eastern Conference and that was moving the ball effectively and making sure they tried plenty of three pointers. The Raptors hit 11/25 from the three point range, but it was the ability to get into those positions which will encourage this team with that shot a key weapon for Toronto.

Picking a winner is difficult and that goes for both straight up and against the spread. I can make a serious case for both teams to do that and so instead I am going to focus on the total points market here.

The last couple of games have seen one of the teams just struggle under the pressure of Play Off Basketball especially in the Fourth Quarter. That has prevented either Game 4 or Game 5 surpassing the total points line and I think Game 6 could follow a similar pattern.

There is likely to be two Quarters where both Washington and Toronto fire up, but I think they have been challenging the shooters to enough of an extent that there will be one Quarter far below the expected points total. That should be enough to see these teams combine for fewer than the line set barring Overtime coming into play and that has been the recent trend.

The pressure on each team might also make the shooters a little tighter at this stage of a Series and I will look for the 'under' to come through.


Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers Pick: The final seconds of Game 5 will stick in the throat of the Indiana Pacers who won't be feeling any better when hearing from the NBA that their officials got a call wrong against them. My immediate reaction to LeBron James' block on Victor Oladipo with 4 seconds left was that it was a goaltending violation, but the officials missed the call and couldn't review it.

The fact LeBron James came out and hit a three pointer to beat the buzzer will only have hurt the Pacers all the more as they fought back to almost steal a 3-2 lead in the Series. Instead Indiana return home knowing it is win or go home as far as the Play Offs go for them this season.

The Pacers have played well throughout the Series, but they have just faltered at critical times. Poor starts have not helped and while getting that sorted out in Game 5, they couldn't maintain the aggressiveness as Cleveland took control in the Third Quarter with a huge run.

Oladipo was unfortunate not to get the call that would have given the Indiana Pacers the lead in Game 5, but he has really struggled in the last three games and it is no surprise his team have lost twice. He has been huge for the Pacers all season, but LeBron James has made it his job to limit Oladipo's impact and that has seen the latter make some questionable decisions.

On the other side of the court James continues to show dominance and he was given just about enough support in Game 5 to help the Cavaliers get over the line. He needs more if Cleveland are going to go deep into the post-season, but James is happy with the way the Cavaliers are developing in what has been an incredibly tough Series for them.

Much of how Game 6 is going to go will depend on how down the Pacers feel after coming so close in the last couple of games and losing twice. Back to back losses in the Play Offs are really difficult to recover from both mentally and physically and I think the Cavaliers have every chance of closing this Series on Friday.

Like every game so far in this First Round Series I expect it will be close with both teams capable of making a strong run. However I think the Cavaliers have the momentum now and the LeBron James three pointer in Game 5 may have been the dagger which could be very tough for Indiana to recover from.

The three point shooting in general looked a little better from Cleveland and Indiana's Offensive schemes have gotten a bit too bogged down at times. With LeBron James playing the way he is, I think the Cavaliers can win as the underdog in Game 6.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz Pick: Blowing a 25 point lead in a close game of the Play Offs would affect the most veteran of teams in the NBA, but it is going to be really difficult for the young Utah Jazz team to recover in a couple of days. The Jazz looked like they had the Oklahoma City Thunder where they wanted them having shut down a raucous home crowd and seen the home team booed at half time, but a collapse for the ages has reignited this Play Off Series.

The sharp money continues to come in on the Utah Jazz who are a big favourite to win Game 6 and the spread indicates that. They have looked the better team for three and a half games of the five games played in this Series and that is something they need to hold onto.

Oklahoma City were obviously impressed with their comeback in Game 5 but have admitted they can't play as poorly again as they did in the first half of that game. The 'Big Three' finally rallied together for a huge Play Off performance and the challenge for the Thunder is getting Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony going again.

Defensively they stepped up in the second half of Game 5, but the key for the Thunder remains the Offensive side of the court because the Jazz have shown they move the ball well enough to find their open shots.

You do have to think they are going to be given the adrenaline boost they will need from the home crowd and that does make Utah dangerous, but I am anticipating another close battle between these teams.

I am also going back to the same market that should have hit in Game 5- I have never seen a team trailing by only 8 points with two minutes to play not make one single foul like the Utah Jazz did and I am attributing that to mentally losing complete focus after blowing their lead.

That game reached 206 points with two minutes left and all it would have needed was a couple of trips to the Free Throw line, like would happen in 999/1000 occasions, and Game 5 would have surpassed the number. The two teams have shown they can get hot from the three point line and aggressive moves to the rim have also extended games.

Both teams have shown they can be broken down Defensively by the other and I am not anticipating either allowing themselves to coast to the loss without trying to force the other to hit Free Throws as happened in Game 5. The total points line has come down a point from Game 5 to Game 6 and I will look for the teams to surpass that total this time.

MY PICKS: 24/04 Boston Celtics-Milwaukee Bucks Over 203 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
24/04 Philadelphia 76ers-Miami Heat Over 215 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
24/04 Golden State Warriors - 11 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
25/04 Indiana Pacers + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
25/04 Toronto Raptors - 7 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/04 Utah Jazz-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 207 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/04 Houston Rockets - 12 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
26/04 Boston Celtics + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (0 Units)
27/04 Washington Wizards-Toronto Raptors Under 214.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
27/04 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
27/04 Utah Jazz-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 206 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

First Round Update: 15-23-1, - 9.35 Units (39 Units Staked, - 23.97% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (April 24-26)

It was a great weekend to be a Manchester United fan after seeing the side recover from a goal down to beat Tottenham Hotspur in the FA Cup Semi Final.

A 2nd place Premier League finish and a Cup success would constitute a better than average season, although Chelsea will be anything but a walkover in the Final on 19th May.

That's for another day and the focus this midweek for general Football fans will be on the four European Semi Final First Legs to be played from Tuesday through to Thursday. All have their own intrigue and it is a big week for the teams involved as they can smell European success now they have reached the last four of the Champions League/Europa League.


Liverpool v Roma Pick: This may be the Semi Final that all Liverpool fans would have been hoping for when the draw was made a couple of weeks ago, but no one at the club will be overlooking a Roma team who have overachieved to get to this stage of the competition.

The 3-0 win over Barcelona in the Quarter Final Second Leg to overturn a 4-1 First Leg defeat will live long in the memory for Roma fans, but they won't want the journey to end.

It is going to be a pivotal opening half hour for Roma in an intense Anfield atmosphere which saw Manchester City crumble in the Quarter Final First Leg. Roma have to make sure they don't give too much away if they are going to have a chance to keep the Second Leg alive.

Unfortunately Roma have not travelled well in the Champions League this season and have conceded at least twice in away games at Chelsea, Atletico Madrid, Shakhtar Donetsk and Barcelona. They are facing a Liverpool team who can score plenty of goals at home and Roma were beaten in the last 3 away games in the Champions League.

However they have scored in all but one away game and came back from 2-0 down at Chelsea to earn a 3-3 draw. Away goals could be critical for Roma and they will be going up against a Liverpool defence which has kept 4 straight home clean sheets in the Champions League.

My lean is that Roma will struggle in Liverpool like they have in recent away Champions League games. They could play a part by getting on the scoreboard though and Roma can be in a position where the Second Leg is the pivotal one in this Semi Final tie.

Realistically though I think Liverpool will win a high-scoring First Leg with Roma's defensive shape not as strong away from home in this competition. Backing the home team to win a game featuring three or more goals at odds against looks a decent price.


Bayern Munich v Real Madrid Pick: Both Champions League Semi Final ties have their intrigue, but the one that will capture the imagination of most fans comes between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid.

It says something about how much Bayern Munich did not want to play Real Madrid that the likes of Arturo Vidal were seen watching the final minutes from Madrid in the Champions League Quarter Final Second Leg rather than his team's own Second Leg against Sevilla.

The disgust at what was initially perceived a controversial decision by Michael Oliver to hand Real Madrid a final minute penalty might have been down to the reminder of the injustice Bayern Munich felt last season. They missed a penalty at half time in the First Leg to move 2-0 ahead before losing 1-2 at home and in the Second Leg a controversial Arturo Vidal sending off meant Bayern Munich were overwhelmed in Extra Time after winning 1-2 in normal time in the Bernebeu.

It will be important for Bayern Munich to use that energy in the right way on Wednesday with the fans likely to be intense and the players fully reminded of how the Quarter Final played out last season. There is plenty of experience to think Bayern Munich will handle the occasion in a positive manner, but the dangers Real Madrid pose will also be clear to all.

Real Madrid are 'all in' when it comes to the Champions League and wins in Borussia Dortmund, Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus underlines the danger they pose to Bayern Munich. Cristiano Ronaldo continues to produce goals in big games and Bayern Munich have lost their last couple of home games against Real Madrid which will be on the minds of everyone associated with the club.

I can't see a low-scoring game here and neither can the layers.

Picking a winner is more difficult but I am going to lean towards Bayern Munich to find a way to get into a lead ahead of the Second Leg. They weren't very good against Sevilla, but I think that was a game they were very comfortable in and I think Bayern Munich will be looking to right the perceived wrongs from last season.

Real Madrid have enough quality to play their part in the First Leg too, but I will back Bayern Munich to earn the lead with the goals they have been scoring. They likely need two goals, at least, to win and I will back them to win a game featuring three or more goals at a big price.


Arsenal v Atletico Madrid Pick: Arsene Wenger is hoping his decision to announce his departure from Arsenal as manager at the end of the season will unify the fan base for one strong push to end the campaign.

Winning the Europa League will give Arsenal a chance to return to the Champions League, but this was the Semi Final opponent they were hoping to avoid.

However it has to be said that Atletico Madrid have not been in the best recent form, especially away from home where they have lost 4 of their last 6 in all competitions. The performance in the 1-0 defeat in Lisbon to Sporting was not good enough from Atletico Madrid and will give Arsenal hope they are perhaps playing them at the right time.

The First Leg at the Emirates Stadium is huge for Arsenal who simply have not turned up on their travels far too often throughout the 2017/18 season. They have been in fine form here in recent weeks with their last 6 all won while scoring at least three times in each.

The concern has to be the continued defensive lapses which have seen the likes of Milan, CSKA Moscow score away goals in the Europa League and Southampton and West Ham United score goals in losses here in the Premier League. Atletico Madrid have more than enough attacking talent to score here too and I think they will get an away goal having scored at Leicester City and Chelsea over the last thirteen months in European away games.

However I also think Arsenal have played with enough confidence at home to score too and I will simply look for both teams to score here.


Marseille v Salzburg Pick: These teams met in two low-scoring games in the Europa League Group Stage earlier this season, but there is a lot more on the line when Marseille and Salzburg meet in the Semi Final tie over the next eight days.

Both teams have shown considerable heart and determination to come through the Knock Out Rounds already and that should mean there is plenty of confidence on display from the players on the field.

Despite the goalless draw between these teams in the Group Stage, I do have to lean towards Marseille having a lead from the First Leg. They have won 7 of their 8 home Europa League games and Marseille have scored 10 goals in their last couple of games here

Marseille have also scored at least three times in their last 3 home Europa League games and they are facing a Salzburg team who do have a tendency to concede plenty of goals on their travels.

I do expect the home team to score at least twice in this one, but Marseille will have to be aware of the threat Salzburg pose on the counter attack. Salzburg have scored twice in Real Sociedad, Borussia Dortmund and Lazio in the Knock Out Rounds and they certainly will feel they can score here.

Both teams should create the chances to get onto the scoreboard, but I will have a small interest in Marseille winning a game in which both teams have their successes.

MY PICKS: Liverpool Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Bayern Munich Win @ Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.62 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Arsenal-Atletico Madrid Both Teams to Score @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marseille Win and Both Teams to Score @ 3.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Boxing Picks 2018- Carl Frampton vs Nonito Donaire (April 21st)

Saturday night is going to be a big evening of Boxing with a couple of big names in action in the United Kingdom before the shift to the Barclays Center in Brooklyn where Adrien Broner and Jesse Vargas headline an interesting card.

The next few weeks have some huge fights set to go which are going to be very interesting both at domestic and world level and it remains a great time to be a Boxing fan even if the GGG vs Canelo 2 fight has been postponed and the much anticipated Anthony Joshua vs Deontay Wilder fight has yet to be announced.

Zolani Tete vs Omar Andres Narvaez

Many consider Zolani Tete the best Bantamweight in the world, although the likes of Ryan Burnett would have something to say about that.

There are rumours that the next World Boxing Super Series tournament will feature the Bantamweights as one of the two Divisions with some top names in this Division.

Tete will want to be involved and he is a big favourite to defend his WBO World Title when he defends against Omar Andres Narvaez in Belfast on the Carl Frampton-Nonito Donaire undercard.

The 42 year old Narvaez has mixed with some good company in his career, but this looks a very difficult fight for him. He gives up seven inches in height and eight inches in reach and I simply don't think he is going to have enough to disrupt Tete who has shown he has considerable power.

Comparisons will be made to Naoya Inoue who blew past Narvaez in two Rounds, while fans will be expectant after seeing Tete win his last fight in 11 seconds with the first punch landed of the fight. I do think Tete will be coming out to make a statement to the rest of the Division and he should be able to control matters very quickly and unleash some powerful shots.

I am not sure Narvaez will be ready to stand up to the early assault and I can see Tete getting this done early so having a small interest in this ending in the first four Rounds looks the call.

Carl Frampton vs Nonito Donaire

The biggest fight taking place in the United Kingdom comes from Belfast where Carl Frampton headlines against Nonito Donaire.

You have to think Frampton has taken this fight because his team believe Donaire is no longer the fighter he once was and there is plenty of confidence in the home camp that their man is not only going to win, but win very impressively.

Donaire has come for anything but a payday as he looks to remain relevant at world level, but I do wonder if Father Time has gotten the better of him. The Filipino has simply not looked up to the level he once showed and he is fighting at an almost unfamiliar weight to take this opportunity.

I do have to say that I am also not sure where I stand about Carl Frampton.

Sometimes I see a world beater, but other times I see a fighter who looks a little underwhelming although the reports all indicate Frampton should be close to his best in this one.

I lean that way too and I can see Frampton producing a huge fight which takes this away from Donaire.

The smartest choice is that Frampton wins on a Decision, but I think he may be able to push past Donaire in the second half of this fight. The talk is that Frampton is fitter than he has been before and that may see him use his stamina to outwork Donaire and perhaps force a stoppage in the second half of the fight.

Amir Khan vs Phil Lo Greco

You may hear different, but Amir Khan has not picked a live opponent for his comeback fight after almost two years away from the Boxing ring.

And I don't blame him to be perfectly honest.

This is the chance to get a few Rounds under the belt and get rid of the rust which would have accumulated in the last two years, while Khan is not going to risk some big paydays which are in front of him if he can get back to winning ways.

Phil Lo Greco hasn't exactly been a really active fighter himself with just two fights since Khan was destroyed by Canelo Alvarez in May 2016 (and one of those was in June 2016). He has been in with the likes of Errol Spence Jr (TKO Third Round), Shawn Porter (Unanimous Decision) and so it is possible that Lo Greco on a full camp can force Khan to put some Rounds in the bank.

That won't be a big issue for Khan, and I expect his speed to be a real problem for Lo Greco who will be likely looking for the one big counter to open the door to some big opportunities of his own.

Ultimately I expect Khan's speed and combinations to be too much for Lo Greco to deal with, although I do think the Canadian will be durable enough to perhaps hear the final bell.

My only fear for Lo Greco would be a premature stoppage from the referee under a barrage of speedy Khan shots, but the latter has not won a fight inside the distance since 2012 even if the majority of those fights have been against better opponents than Lo Greco. However I do think the Canadian will have made use of a full camp to be able to last as long as he is not overwhelmed early and a small interest on Khan winning a comfortable Decision is the call from this one.

Gervonta Davis vs Jesus Cuellar

This is the first time Gervonta Davis has made weight at the first attempt in three fights and that might indicate a new level of professionalism for a fighter who is lined up for a crack at the awesome Vasyl Lomachenko.

Both have to get through a couple of fights in the next three weeks to set that up and Davis will be looking to make a real statement when he faces Jesus Cuellar at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

His opponent Jesus Cuellar has to be respected having taken Abner Mares to a Split Decision in his last fight, but that was eighteen months ago and Cuellar is also being asked to move up in weight for this challenge.

That is going to be the difference between the two fighters and I think Davis will be too strong and be able to bully Cuellar with the prizes that are on offer for him with a strong win. Davis has proven to be very powerful early on and I think he will get on top of Cuellar and be able to hurt his opponent.

Not many men have been able to put a few Rounds in the Davis bank and I am not sure Cuellar will be able to do that here.

Davis winning in the first half of the fight and set himself up for a shot at Lomachenko is my expected outcome of this one.

Jermall Charlo vs Hugo Centeno

The move up to Middleweight has been a good one for Jermall Charlo and I don't think there is much chance he is going to lose his spot as a mandatory challenge to Gennady Golovkin.

Charlo would have loved to have filled in for Canelo Alvarez, but this fight has been long scheduled and the American may be happy to just keep himself ticking along before moving into a position to fight the winner of the expected GGG-Canelo fight that will take place in September.

He should have too much for the game Hugo Centeno, but I worry that the latter was stopped at the Junior Middleweight level. The only times Centeno has stepped up to this kind of level has seen Centeno struggle and I think that may be the case again with Charlo most likely forcing a stoppage with the heavy hitting he has been producing.

Only Austin Trout has seen the Sixth Round in the last five Charlo fights, but Centeno may be able to last a little longer than most. He has shown some durability in his previous fights, but I do think Charlo will eventually have too much power and intensity for him and can earn the stoppage in the mid-Rounds.

Backing the favourite to win anywhere between the Fifth and Eighth Round is the pick.

Adrien Broner vs Jesse Vargas

I don't know what to say about Adrien Broner.

He talks as if he is one of the greatest pound for pound fighters of all time, but has underwhelmed massively in the last few years.

There is no denying the talent and it can seduce you into thinking something big is going to come from Broner, but he flatters to deceive and I think Jesse Vargas is going to become the latest to get the better of him.

Vargas is bigger and his two losses have come against future Hall of Famers but I think his discipline and hard work is going to provide the difference on the day.

Broner hasn't had a top performance in some time and I am not going to buy into the 'best ever feeling' you will hear every Boxer say before every fight they take part in. Broner fooled me with that line against Mikey Garcia.

This time I can't see a pot shotting Broner do enough to win this fight and I think Vargas will outwork him and win a decision by around three or four Rounds. Backing the narrow favourite looks the right play here as Broner's time at the top is perhaps over or very close to the end with another loss.

MY PICKS: Zolani Tete Win Between 1-4 @ 4.33 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Carl Frampton Win Between 7-12 @ 6.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Amir Khan to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.75 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Gervonta Davis Win Between 1-6 @ 2.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Jermall Charlo Win Between 5-8 @ 2.80 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Jesse Vargas @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Boxing Update 2018: 12-15, + 17.38 Units (41 Units Staked, + 42.39% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (April 21-23)

The biggest news in English Football was the decision made by Arsene Wenger to step down as manager of Arsenal after twenty-two years in charge of the club.

While Wenger has rightly been lauded in many quarters since the decision was revealed, I also think it is impossible to ignore the fact that Arsenal have slid massively in the last few years of his tenure at the Emirates Stadium.

Stubbornness has not helped Wenger who has refused to make the signings that everyone has been crying out for which would have made Arsenal more competitive. And it does feel this decision is a few years later than most Arsenal fans would have wanted, although at least Wenger is going to be given a positive send off which is the least he deserves.

Winning the Europa League would be the perfect way to underline his time at Arsenal, but that is for another day with another round of Premier League games to be played this weekend. We also have two FA Cup Semi Final ties to be played on Saturday and Sunday.


West Brom v Liverpool Pick: This is a chance for Liverpool to put the Premier League to the back of their minds and concentrate fully on an assault to win the Champions League if they are able to win on Saturday.

A win would likely be enough to secure a top four spot in the Premier League which is the main goal for Liverpool this season and they are certainly good enough to earn that at The Hawthorns.

You have to consider the fact that Liverpool could make changes to the starting eleven for this fixture as they are facing Roma in the Champions League Semi Final First Leg on Tuesday. If they rest some of the big names for that First Leg then winning at The Hawthorns will be that much more difficult, but I am going to second guess Jurgen Klopp and expect a strong team to be named to secure a top four berth and then rest players the rest of the way.

They will need to be at their best to beat West Brom after the relegation threatened club secured a stunning 0-1 win at Old Trafford last Sunday. That should focus the Liverpool minds, but I also think West Brom were given a lot of belief by a poor Manchester United performance.

In recent weeks West Brom have not had a lot of belief in what they are trying to do and that saw them lose 9 games in a row before sacking Alan Pardew. The players are playing for Darren Moore, but they were poor two weeks ago in a 1-1 draw with Swansea City and this Liverpool team are capable of putting them to the sword and then being able to rest their key men in the second half.

I expect that will be the request from Klopp and Liverpool are capable of winning with some comfort on the day. West Brom can score goals at home, but Liverpool have defended much better in recent weeks and I will back the away side to give themselves a boost for the Champions League with a good looking win on Saturday lunch time.


Watford v Crystal Palace Pick: The end of the last couple of Premier League seasons have seen Watford struggle to maintain their concentration once their relegation battle has been concluded with a success. The same has happened this season as they have been beaten in 4 of their last 5 Premier League games and that won't be good news for those teams still fighting against relegation.

The reason for that is Watford host Crystal Palace this weekend and the away side come in with plenty of motivation and also positive form as they bid for another victory. The three points on offer could be enough for Crystal Palace to ensure they avoid relegation and they are playing well enough to do that.

Wilfried Zaha is in fine form and Crystal Palace have their attacking players back to give them a boost in confidence. They need the goals because Crystal Palace have continued to struggle defensively and Watford have been stronger at home which suggests they could take advantage of those problems at the back.

Watford have scored in their last 13 home games in all competitions and I think they are still showing enough to think they can create chances. However Watford have not looked that convincing defensively which is where Crystal Palace should have their joy and I think the layers are underestimating the chance to see at least three goals in this one.

Both teams could easily score and the three points on offer should mean Crystal Palace are pushing to score the goals to earn those points. With Watford at home they will be pressed by the fans to attack too and I can see there being enough chances in this fixture to see goals arrive.


Arsenal v West Ham United Pick: It has been a long time coming, but Arsene Wenger has finally decided to step down as manager of Arsenal with the team on course for their lowest finish under his tenure. While most Arsenal fans will be happy, the players have a chance to show their appreciation for the manager with a strong end to the season and a possible return to the Champions League.

The team selection did not help Arsenal's cause in their defeat at Newcastle United last weekend, but it was also a real indicator of how they have played away from home. Once again they lost a game in which they had led and that has been a source of frustration for Arsene Wenger all season.

Playing at the Emirates Stadium has been much more positive for the Arsenal players and it has been suggested a strong team will be picked even with the Atletico Madrid Europa League tie in mind.

Wenger wants momentum and he wants his key players to be mentally ready for the Europa League Semi Final so he will also expect a big performance from those players. It can be difficult for players to avoid the distraction of bigger games to come, but the loss last weekend should be enough to keep them focused.

They will need to do that against a West Ham United team who are unbeaten in 3 Premier League games and still searching for one more win to ensure they avoid the drop. David Moyes will look to set his team up to frustrate their hosts, but West Ham United have not been as good at doing that away from home although they have found a way to score goals.

Unfortunately they do concede plenty of chances and a strong Arsenal team can go into the Europa League Semi Final First Leg with some positives behind them. I will look for the home team to have a little too much creativity in the final third and break down this West Ham United team for a win by a couple of goals on the day.


Stoke City v Burnley Pick: The performances from Stoke City under Paul Lambert have not been bad, but a lack of goals and losing winning positions have put them on the brink of being relegated from the Premier League. Anything less than a win on Sunday may be costly for Stoke City who probably need 3 wins from their final 4 League games to have any chance of escaping the drop.

This may be a fixture that represents a good chance to earn the first of those wins after Burnley had a tough evening on Thursday competing against Chelsea. There won't be many changes to the Burnley starting eleven which means tiredness could work against them as this game goes on, but Burnley have proven themselves to be defensively resolute.

The home team have simply not scored enough goals to be warranted as a pretty short favourite to win this game, especially when you think of the lack of wins under Paul Lambert.

Stoke City do get on the front foot and have some talented players that could cause problems for Burnley, but I imagine Sean Dyche will have his players well drilled for this fixture even on the short turnaround from Thursday's game.

Burnley may not have the best recent record at Stoke City, but they have played with a lot more belief than their hosts all season. As long as Burnley remain as tough as they have been defensively, I think they will have an opportunity to at least earn a point here and backing the visitors with a start on the Asian Handicap looks the way to go.


Manchester City v Swansea City Pick: A party atmosphere in the stands can sometimes filter down to the players, but I would be surprised if Pep Guardiola allows his Manchester City team to ease off the throttle in their final League games. Instead I imagine this is a time when he will want this team to lay down a marker for next season and underline their desire for future success too.

The game on Sunday does look a good opportunity for Manchester City to express themselves as they go up against a Swansea City team who have not been as secure defensively as they once looked under Carlos Carvalhal. The Swans have kept the points ticking over to keep their head above water in the Premier League, but they were clearly second best in a 2-0 loss at Manchester United at the end of March and it is a big test for them here.

They don't have anything to lose so Swansea City can try and express themselves, but that might leave them a little open to a Manchester City team who have been in imperious form at home for much of the season.

And it could be dangerous to be too open against a team who are trying to snap a 3 game losing run at the Etihad Stadium, although I am not convinced Swansea City will get much here regardless of the system employed.

If you defend in numbers you can limit the damage done by the home team, but Manchester City are well rested and ready to celebrate and I can see this being a comfortable win for the home team. They have struggled to win their recent home games against Swansea City, but this Manchester City team look much stronger than recent editions and I think it could be a long afternoon for their visitors.

Manchester City won 0-4 at the Liberty Stadium, but they could settle for a margin of one less than that. Regardless, I am going to back Manchester City to cover a big Asian Handicap as they celebrate the title with a stylish win.


Everton v Newcastle United Pick: For most fans the difference between finishing 9th and 10th in the Premier League table may not be here nor there, but for clubs there is a financial reward for a higher League finish. That may be the only thing on the mind of those in the board room when Everton host Newcastle United on Monday Night Football, but the players should be free enough to perform as they would like.

Newcastle United are on a very good run of 4 consecutive wins which has pulled them away from the bottom three, and they won their last away game at Leicester City. That should give them enough belief they can head to Goodison Park and pose problems for an Everton team who have not won any of their last 3 League games.

However you can't ignore the fact that Everton have played 2 of the top four in that time and they have generally performed better at home. Some of the football has been disappointing under Sam Allardyce and that has put the fans off from backing him to stay in charge of the club, but no one can deny it has mainly been effective to make sure Everton were not involved in a relegation battle.

The home form has generally been pretty good under Allardyce and only the 1-1 home draw with West Brom under the former England manager could be seen as a poor result. Everton have beaten West Ham United, Huddersfield Town, Swansea City, Leicester City, Crystal Palace and Brighton at home since Allardyce took over as manager and the other failures to win games here outside of the West Brom game have been against top five clubs.

Everton have a strong record at home against Newcastle United and I think they can win this fixture too. I don't doubt that Newcastle United are playing well enough to earn a result here, but I lean towards Everton and backing them on the Asian Handicap will return half the stake if this does end in a draw.


Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There is a heatwave in the United Kingdom with some unusually high April temperatures in London which could play a real part in this FA Cup Semi Final. The fans will be hoping the football on the pitch can match the weather as Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur meet for a place in the Cup Final on May 19th.

Both Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have some questions to answer having had an up and down week in the Premier League in the chase for one of the top four positions.

At least Manchester United bounced back from a stunning loss to West Brom by beating Bournemouth on Wednesday night whereas Tottenham Hotspur have failed to win either of their last 2 League games.

Losing back to back games at Wembley Stadium will also be on the mind of the Tottenham Hotspur players despite their familiarity with what has been 'home' in the 2017/18 season. That has given Tottenham Hotspur an edge in this Semi Final and has to be considered one of the main reasons they are favoured to beat Manchester United having done the same in the Premier League in January.

That game was changed completely after Tottenham Hotspur scored in the opening seconds, but this time Manchester United may come in with more belief having beaten the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City recently. The loss to West Brom was a strange day, but the bounce back at Bournemouth and 7 wins from 9 games means Manchester United do come in with confidence.

Tottenham Hotspur's familiarity with Wembley Stadium may give them plenty of belief of their own and I think this will be a good Cup Semi Fina.

My lean is that Manchester United do earn the result to take them through to the FA Cup Final for the second time in three years. However Tottenham Hotspur won't go down without a fight either and the attacking players should have opportunities in this one with every chance of seeing three goals shared out by the teams.


Chelsea v Southampton Pick: This FA Cup Semi Final may mean a great deal more to Chelsea than Southampton in the grand scheme of things, but playing at Wembley Stadium with a trophy just two games away is not something to ignore for the Southampton players.

This is a team who reached the League Cup Final last season but things have taken a rapid downward swing since that day. Now it looks like Southampton are destined for relegation down to the Championship as they have slumped in the Premier League and the focus has to be in avoiding the drop.

Of course they won't want to throw away the FA Cup Semi Final, but Mark Hughes has suggested he will freshen things up and I think he may consider resting key players for the final four League games.

Antonio Conte's focus is much easier to understand as he bids to help Chelsea win their remaining fixtures regardless of how that will affect his future as manager of the club. Winning out will give Chelsea an outside chance of a top four finish, but Conte will get the chance to sign off with a trophy and that has to be at the forefront of his mind.

Recent Chelsea performances will encourage Conte with impressive wins over Southampton and Burnley particularly the way Chelsea have rallied under pressure. The win over Southampton gives Chelsea a real mental advantage in this Semi Final and they will feel they can expose what has been a shaky defensive unit to say the least.

Chelsea look more secure with their formation and the team that is likely going to be picked and I would be surprised if they can't make it three wins in a week. The likes of Eden Hazard and Willian are well rested and should be ready to make an impact in this Semi Final and I am going to back Chelsea to win by a couple of goals on the day as they punish Southampton for chasing a way back into this one late in the day.

MY PICKS: Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Watford-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Burnley + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)