Boxing Picks 2017- Anthony Joshua vs Carlos Takam (October 27-28)

The next Anthony Joshua event is ready to go, but I have to say that the overall feeling about the fight card this weekend is underwhelming when you think where we were in April at Wembley Stadium.

I understand AJ is a huge star for Eddie Hearn and Sky Sports, but they can't be really be suggesting this should be a PPV fight. Unfortunately Joshua has transcended the sport and that means I would be surprised to ever see him on a non-PPV event again, although the undercard looks pretty terrible too.

It is not all the fault of Hearn or Sky simply because of the injuries that have affected the card, but this is a PPV that is priced at double that of Gennady Golovkin vs Canelo and I am not sure there is much value for money on the one being shown on Saturday.

I will still watch it, but I won't be paying myself. Instead I will go out to a bar, have a few beers and watch the two fights of real interest for me which both come from the Heavyweight Division.

On Friday we also have the final Quarter Final in the World Boxing Super Series although it is perhaps one of the weakest of the Quarter Finals in what has been a real revelation of a tournament so far. This will set up the final of the four Semi Final fights to come in January and February 2018 and will be an interesting night in Germany.

Juergen Braehmer vs Rob Brant

Both the Super Middleweight and the Cruiserweight World Boxing Super Series have been such a success already that there are plans for other weights to follow suit at the end of next year. Some top boxers have already expressed an interest to being involved next time around and so all credit has to be given to the organisers for putting together a tournament that looks like it will succeed where the Super Six World Boxing Classic did not.

In saying all that, this might not have been the best of the Quarter Finals.

Out of the Super Middleweight tournament, the other Quarter Finals had boxers involved that are considered amongst the favourites to win this tournament, but this one doesn't seem to have the same appeal.

Juergen Braehmer is coming down from the Light-Heavyweight level and was last season calling it a day against Nathan Cleverly over a year ago. There are questions as to how much he has left in the tank and whether this is just a last chance saloon fight for the veteran German.

On the other hand Rob Brandt is an unbeaten American prospect who is coming up in weight from Middleweight to take part in the tournament. This is clearly the biggest test in his career having won his previous twenty-two fights and I am really not convinced the winner is going to have enough to beat Callum Smith in the Semi Final.

Brandt may have a little more room for improvement than Braehmer at this stage of their careers though and I do think the American can step up and make a statement in this Quarter Final. It can be hard to really believe in a prospect, but I am not sure Braehmer has much left having been out of the ring for twelve months.

Perhaps he shows off his veteran experience early in the fight, but I expect Brandt to take control of the fight in the latter stages. I think he may have enough to force the stoppage against an opponent who may struggle to keep the energy going at this weight and I will back the American to see either the corner or the referee end this contest in the second half of the fight.

Robert Helenius vs Dillian Whyte

I think a lot of credit has to be given to the promoters that Dillian Whyte is positioned where he is in the Heavyweight ranks and I don't mean in the official World Rankings but by the casual fan.

Some people genuinely think Whyte is ready for the World level, but I can't say I agree with them just yet.

He went life and death with Dereck Chisora who has been shown to be a step below the World level and I honestly think the push for Whyte to face Deontay Wilder is being fuelled by Eddie Hearn. I think Hearn would expect Wilder to win that fight and thus set up a mammoth fight with Anthony Joshua for all the marbles at some point in 2018, but Whyte himself really believes he belongs.

He is rough and ready and will be an awkward fight at times for anyone, although I do think it will be an upset if he picks up one of the main Heavyweight titles. Perhaps Whyte would be better suited to chase Joseph Parker and try and bring a World title to the table in a unification with Joshua rather than searching for the fight with Wilder.

In saying that, I do think Whyte beats Robert Helenius in this one on Saturday. Remember Chisora lost a controversial one to Helenius a few years ago and the Finn has not really improved much from that point and also seen his undefeated record taken away. Back then many thought Chisora had done enough to win the fight, and this time Helenius won't be getting home judging to bail him out.

Helenius was stopped in his loss and Whyte is expected to put him down for the count in this one. That is the most likely outcome of this one as I am not sure Helenius has much left in the tank, although I am also not convinced Whyte is blessed with the power to beat someone without wearing them down first.

Maybe that is the way he takes down Helenius in this one, but I think the bigger man can try and keep Whyte at length with his jab. The rough house tactics of Whyte may impress the judges more than Chisora did in his own loss to Helenius, and I think there may be something in taking Whyte to win this one on a Decision.

Whyte has stopped three of his last five opponents as he rebuilds after the loss to Joshua, but he needed 10 Rounds against Ian Lewison, and also went 10 with David Allen as well as 12 against Chisora. Maybe he gets Helenius out there late, but I will look for Whyte to record a Decision win here.

Anthony Joshua vs Carlos Takam

You can't blame the PPV company in promoting Carlos Takam as a real threat to Anthony Joshua, but I can't see him upsetting the big favourite coming as a replacement.

I fancied Anthony Joshua would have been too much for Kubrat Pulev, but neither fight was going to get the blood pumping as the April win over Wladimir Klitschko did. That's no concern for Joshua who continues to be the golden child of British Boxing who will know some big fights are coming in 2018 as long as he keeps the focus.

This should be a fight in which he keeps things rolling regardless of what he is saying outwardly.

AJ has been speaking about the toughness of Takam and how this could take getting into the Championship Rounds before he can take out his opponent. Takam is tough, but I won't read much about him going the distance against Joseph Parker as he was stopped by Alexander Povetkin.

Takam has some solid wins behind him, but I am not sure how much he could have prepared for this one regardless of what Eddie Hearn mentioned about having him getting ready in case Pulev pulled out. I do think Takam will show heart but most will be wondering how long he can last in this one.

That is what I am considering as I do think Joshua will find a way to get this stopped.

I will credit Takam for likely giving this his best shot considering he is unlikely to ever have such an opportunity again. I do think Takam can make things awkward, but Joshua hits very, very hard.

Whyte and Dominic Breazeale both lasted into the 7th Round against Joshua and I can imagine the latter not looking to rush this one. Both Whyte and Breazeale were ended in the 7th Round... Takam may get to around the same mark and having a small interest in this one finishing anywhere between 7-9 looks to be worth backing.

MY PICKS: Rob Brant Win Between 7-12 @ 4.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Dillian Whyte by Decision/Technical Decision @ 4.00 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Anthony Joshua Win Between 7-9 @ 6.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)

NFL Week 8 Picks 2017 (October 26-30)

Now I know they say parity if everything the NFL stands for, but sometimes there can be no rhyme or reason as to how teams are playing from week to week.

Week 7 felt like that in what was a really difficult week to make picks as teams struggled to reach the levels they clearly can. Others are so erratic from week to week and this has been a difficult couple of weeks for the picks.

However each week does offer the chance to bounce back and I am more irritated with myself for overcomplicating things which meant I removed a couple of picks that ended up winners. I had both Oakland and Philadelphia on the shortlist but was put off by a couple of key injuries and that turned out to be a big mistake when I think of the teams I did take.

It happens... It is all about recovering and getting back on the saddle this week.


After last week and some of the results that have come through it is difficult picking a top five in the NFL at this moment. It is only Week 8 so others will likely get back into things but at the moment this would be the five teams I would have as the top ones in the NFL.

1) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2): Back to back wins and an Offense that is coming out of what has been an extended hibernation may make the Steelers to beat at the moment.

2) Philadelphia Eagles (6-1): I could have moved Philadelphia up a spot after sweeping the Washington Redskins. The Eagles do look the team to beat in the NFC, but a tough NFC East schedule is still in front of them.

3) Minnesota Vikings (5-2): There are still some questions Offensively, but Minnesota look so good Defensively which can make up for the other side of the ball.

4) New England Patriots (5-2): Beating the Atlanta Falcons was a solid result for the New England Patriots, but there are still some Defensive issues to resolve which has been made worse after news Dont'a Hightower's season has ended.

5) New Orleans Saints (4-2): Improved Defensive performances and the NFC South hurting itself might have opened the door for the New Orleans Saints who have won four in a row.

Now onto the Week 8 NFL Picks beginning with Thursday Night Football.


Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: I didn't have much hope for this season for the Miami Dolphins after Ryan Tannehill went down with an injury and remembering how many close games they won in 2016. You wouldn't think that is sustainable, but a couple of close wins in a row means the Dolphins are up at 4-2.

Beating the Baltimore Ravens will be a huge boost for the Dolphins who are in the suddenly competitive AFC East. The Wild Card Race is all about winning these tie-breaker looking games and wins over Tennessee and Baltimore could be huge for the Dolphins in January.

The Ravens have dominated the Miami Dolphins in recent years with six wins from the last seven games between teams who have played each other often. That run includes blowing out the Dolphins here last December and that does put me off when looking to back the underdog with the points.

An injury to Jay Cutler means the Miami Offense has been turned over to Matt Moore, but Moore has always been a solid back up for the Dolphins. Moore is unlikely to suddenly help this Offensive unit catch fire, but he does tend to stick away from the critical mistakes which have blighted Cutler.

In reality Miami will be looking to find a way to establish the run against a Baltimore team who have been surprisingly poor against the run. The return of Brandon Williams is huge though and the Ravens should have success in at least stalling the Miami Dolphins and forcing punts and Field Goals.

However I said I like the Dolphins here and that is because the Baltimore Offense has looked like it has been stuck in the mud for much of this season. Joe Flacco has not played anything near the level that helped him guide the Ravens to a Super Bowl win and he is playing behind an Offensive Line which has not offered him much protection.

It won't be easier for Flacco when facing a Miami pass rush which should dominate up front and at least offer some protection for the Secondary by forcing Flacco to throw much quicker than he would like. The Dolphins should be able to hit Flacco and that could lead to mistakes, while Sacking the Quarter Back is a surefire way to stall drives.

Baltimore will try and relieve some of the pressure by running the ball, but that is another tough task considering the strength of the Miami Defensive Line. It will mean Flacco is trying to find a way to get the passing back on track, but the Dolphins look capable of becoming the latest team to slow down the Ravens Offensive output.

The underdog is 7-3 against the spread in the last ten in this series, while Baltimore are just 5-15-1 against the spread in their last twenty-one games following a defeat. There won't be a lot of points in this one, but backing the Dolphins with a Field Goal starts looks worth a small investment as the first of the Week 8 picks.


The Week 8 NFL Pick can be seen below.

MY PICKS: Miami Dolphins + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
New Orleans Saints - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 13 Points @ 2.05 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Washington Redskins + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Detroit Lions + 3 Points @ 2.05 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

NBA Picks October 2017 (October 23-31)

The NBA might not be grabbing the headlines in the first week of the new season when it is being opposed by the World Series and the NFL/College Football seasons.

That is always the case during the first three months of the NBA season as teams at this time of the year are still working the kinks out of their performances. It has been said for a long time that the top teams only really focus completely when they get through the All Star break in February (which also coincides with the NBA and NHL being the only sports whose seasons are being played until the Major League Baseball season begins in April).

There are still moments when the NBA is the big show in town like the Christmas Day schedule, but for the most part the headlines are generated by other sports until later in the season.


Last week we saw the NBA season begin and the first major bit of news was the firing of Earl Watson at the Phoenix Suns. Of course injuries have also reared their ugly head already, while teams will be beginning to work out whether they are going to be making trade moves once all the restrictions have been restricted.

With so many teams having new looks, it is perhaps no surprise that there have been inconsistent results, although that has to be expected in a regular season which lasts until April.


The NBA picks had a solid start to the season last week as I put together a 8-2 record, but I won't be fooled into thinking it will always be that good. In a long regular season you are going to have ups and downs and that is just the nature of the way things will go, and I certainly won't be expecting a 80% strike rate every week.

The key is to try not to have a truly terrible week in response to a good week.

This thread will cover the remainder of the October schedule for the NBA and the next thread will cover the first few days of November as the season goes on.


Monday 23rd October
Philadelphia 76ers @ Detroit Pistons Pick: The Philadelphia 76ers are expected to take the next step in their development as they come into the season with their best young talent available for selection. There may be a minutes restriction early in the season for those players, but the 76ers had a surprising 2016/17 and a Play Off spot is the minimum the fans will be expecting.

It has been a difficult start on the schedule for the 76ers though and that has contributed to a 0-3 start to the new season. They have faced three Play Off teams from the Eastern Conference from last season and the 76ers were competitive in back to back games against the Washington Wizards and Boston Celtics before being blown out by the Toronto Raptors.

This is a team that is likely to improve, but it might not come immediately as they travel to face the healthy Detroit Pistons. Much of their issues last season came from the fact that Reggie Jackson was not fully healthy, but he has looked much better in the last week and has been joined by Avery Bradley in the back court to give the Pistons some nice shooting options.

Bradley's biggest impact will always be on the Defensive side of the ball although the Pistons have some real room for improvement on that side of the court in the early games of this season. Where the Pistons look to have the edge in this one is their presence on the boards with Andre Drummond and Tobias Harris likely to give Philadelphia some further problems on the rebounding numbers in this one.

So far the Pistons have also got more out of their bench which is likely to be important in this game and I do like Detroit to win and cover.

Detroit are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven against Philadelphia overall and they are 8-2 against the spread in the last ten when they have hosted them. The 76ers might be a team I am keeping an eye on in the early weeks of this season, but Detroit should be too good for them in this one and I will back the Pistons to cover the number against the 76ers as they have managed to do in recent games in the series.


Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns Pick: The Phoenix Suns are a very young team and they had a difficult 2016/17 season and there were not huge expectations on this team going into the new season. However they have been even worse than most would have expected and that has been highlighted by some really terrible performances which suggested the had lost their patience with the Head Coach.

Management and ownership seem to have seen the same thing and a decision was made to fire Earl Watson over the weekend. That was quickly followed by Eric Bledsoe taking to social media and indicating how much he 'hates' being with the Suns and this is a team that will take some turning around.

Bledsoe joined up with the team on Monday despite the comment he had made, but he has been sent home and won't be taking part in the game with the Sacramento Kings. The latter are also a team in transition having made the decision to trade DeMarcus Cousins before the trade deadline in the 2016/17 season and this is not necessarily a very strong situational spot for the Kings.

They are playing the third time in four days with all of those games being on the road, while Sacramento have New Orleans and Cousins next up on deck which may be taking away some of the focus. The Kings were blown out at Denver last time out, and there are some questions about the Offensive side of the court for Sacramento to deal with.

The Offensive side might be helped by the fact they are facing the Phoenix Suns who have given up an average of 128 points per game in their opening three games of the season. Phoenix have been dominated on the boards and I think that will make a difference in this one for the Kings who have been strong enough in the rebounding numbers even without Cousins.

Sacramento have also shot the three point well enough to expose the holes Phoenix have had Defensively and I do like the Kings despite the negative schedule spot. They are 5-1 against the spread in their last six visits to the Suns and the Kings have covered the spread the last five times they have been off a loss.

With Phoenix being 1-9 against the spread in their last ten games against a team with a losing record and I will look for the road team to cover.


Tuesday 24th October
A couple of sloppy opening halves from the two teams I picked on Monday meant there was no way back despite both Detroit and Sacramento getting close to recovering their positions.

It's disappointing to have my first losing day of the season, but hopefully I can bounce back immediately on Tuesday with these three picks.

Brooklyn Nets @ Orlando Magic Pick: It is too early in the season to know how much to read into the starts teams are making, but the Brooklyn Nets and Orlando Magic are both at a surprising 2-1 after the first week of the season is in the books.

This is already the second time Orlando and Brooklyn are playing one another in the 2017/18 season and it was the Nets who won the first game at the Barclays Center last week. However the Magic have showed they can bounce back from their setback with a really impressive road win at the Cleveland Cavaliers as Orlando look to take a step forward in their development after an underachieving 2016/17 season.

On the other hand it is all about the transition for Brooklyn who are no longer spending lavishly for a quick fix, but instead have turned to a young core who can develop into a strong team. The Nets look likely to be a team with a losing record at the end of the season when the youngsters perhaps hit a wall, but at the moment they are enjoying their basketball and scoring plenty of points.

The fast paced system which leads to plenty of three point shots has really appealed to some of the younger talent on the roster and they are making it work. So far the Orlando Magic have defended the three point arc fairly effectively, but that will be put to the test by the Nets as will the overall Defensive schemes of the home team having see Brooklyn at first hand last week.

As much excitement as there is about the Offensive performances of the Nets, they still look a little weak on the other side of the court and that is where Orlando have to make hay. Much of the focus is on the Nets Offensive stats, but Orlando are averaging 117 points per game and they have been efficient enough to give Brooklyn plenty to think about.

Orlando are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games against the Brooklyn Nets at home and the favourite has been strong in this series.

I like the spot for the Magic in this one too as they are playing with revenge after losing to Brooklyn just last week, while they are rested off a big win over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Speaking about the Cavaliers, the Nets host them on Wednesday and it would not be a big surprise if a young team is looking ahead to that one instead of this as a chance to prove themselves against the defending Eastern Conference Champions.

With the recent trends in the series, I will look for the Magic to win and cover.


New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics Pick: The New York Knicks are looking for a better way to finish games after blowing a huge lead over the Detroit Pistons to fall to 0-2 in the new season. It will be tough to get into that position against the Boston Celtics despite the fact that the latter have been hit with the injury bug early in a campaign where big things were expected of the team.

Kyrie Irving's frustrations came to the boil in the win over the Philadelphia 76ers over the weekend as he was caught abusing one of the home fans. Irving insisted he was provoked and didn't offer an remorse for his actions which resulted in a fine from the NBA although he did avoid any suspension.

Irving is irritated having left the Cleveland Cavaliers to join the Celtics but seen the likes of Gordon Hayward and Marcus Smart go down. Smart isn't a long-term issue, but he may miss this game which means Boston have to lean on some of the younger players that they would have preferred to have built up and developed more slowly.

There is still some considerable talent on the roster so it isn't all doom and gloom for Boston even it feels like the loss of Hayward means they have actually taken a step away from the Cleveland Cavaliers rather than closing the gap like they had wanted.

Getting back to 0.500 is the start for the Celtics who snapped their two game losing run with a win over the 76ers and now they host the New York Knicks who are a roster in transition. Not many Knicks fans have held high hopes for the 2017/18 season and this is clearly a work in progress.

The problems the Knicks have to fix will be on the Defensive side of the court and that may mean Boston have a better shooting day than they have so far this season. There is room for improvement on the Defensive side of the court for the Celtics to produce, but I think their numbers have been manipulated by the schedule over the first three games and I do like the chances of the Celtics to dominate this game.

It will be close at times, but I can see the superior talent of Boston producing a couple of big runs which takes the game away from the New York Knicks. The road team has been dominant in the recent series, but I will back the home favourite to work their way to a double digit win.


New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: The Portland Trail Blazers and the New Orleans Pelicans are both hoping to be a part of the Play Off picture in the loaded Western Conference this season and the season series between the teams could be very important when it comes to tiebreakers in April.

In recent years the Trail Blazers have dominated the Pelicans at home with their eleven game winning run against them only ended in a game at the end of last season. That game had factors which contributed as Portland were gearing up for the Play Offs and rested their starters including Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum who will both be available on Tuesday.

Saying that, New Orleans didn't have either DeMarcus Cousins or Anthony Davis in that win here in April. Those two are very good players but they are still looking to find the right rhythm alongside one another and that has contributed to the Pelicans opening the season 1-2, although they did snap the losing run with a win over the Los Angeles Lakers last time out.

The Pelicans have not been helped by the schedule makers and now they have to take on a Portland team playing in their home opener. The challenge will be for the Pelicans Defensively having had their struggles to open the season and now facing a Portland team who have averaged 116 points per game and who have been shooting the ball efficiently.

Portland have been particularly strong from the three point line which is an area in which the New Orleans Pelicans have struggled to defend. The Trail Blazers will also feel they have the size to challenge Cousins and Davis on the boards, while they have been playing well on the Defensive side of the court.

That will be challenged by the efficient shooting of the Pelicans, but I do give the overall edge to the Trail Blazers in this one. I also do wonder if Cousins returning to Sacramento in the next game is going to be on the mind of the Pelicans who will want to make a statement in that Arena after the way Cousins was traded out of Sacramento last season.

The Trail Blazers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six at home against New Orleans, while the favourite is 7-2 against the spread in the last nine. I will look for Portland to keep those trends going as they play their home opener.


Wednesday 25th October
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and Brooklyn Nets put in a big effort in their Tuesday night games, but it was the Cavaliers who managed to earn a win while the Nets were going down to the Orlando Magic.

Back to backs in the NBA can be difficult to read at this stage of the season, but I do like the Cleveland Cavaliers here. They are just 1-3 against the spread to open the season, but the Cavaliers should take advantage of the poor Defensive performances of the Brooklyn Nets and I think it will be difficult for a young Brooklyn team to keep up.

Brooklyn have been shooting the ball well enough, but they are overly reliant on the three point shot and if that fails them then I do think they could be blown away.

The Nets have performed well against the numbers against Cleveland in recent meetings, but I will look for the Cavaliers to have too much depth for them here.


San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat Pick: The San Antonio Spurs have a 'next man up' mentality which has made them one of the top NBA teams over the last twenty years. No matter what happens you have to expect the Spurs to be there or thereabouts when it comes to determining the NBA Champions, although it would be a big surprise if they could upset the Golden State Warriors over seven games.

Injuries have hurt the Spurs early in the season, but they have fought through those to open the season 3-0. That familiarity to deal with injuries should help the Spurs who face an injury hit Miami Heat team that could be missing the likes of Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic although the latter is hoping to make it back.

Even if Dragic is back, he could be limited and I think the Spurs can continue what has been a recent dominance of the Heat. With the Defensive strength and the ability to dominate the boards should give the San Antonio Spurs the chance to extend their recent trends in the series.

San Antonio are 8-1 against the spread in the last nine against Miami and they have covered in their last five visits to South Beach. Miami are also 0-6-1 against the spread in their last seven at home and I will back the Spurs here.


Washington Wizards @ Los Angeles Lakers Pick: There is some tension around this game after LaVar Ball's comments about his son Lonzo got a response from the Washington Wizards. Both teams should be motivated to play and the John Wall match up with Ball is likely going to make the headlines.

However in reality I think the Washington Wizards are significantly better than the Los Angeles Lakers even if the Wizards are 0-3 against the spread in their unbeaten start to the season.

Neither team has performed as well on the Defensive side of the court as they would have liked, but Washington may have the edge on the boards. They also create more than the Lakers and I think Wall will want to show why he is one of the elite Point Guards in the NBA against a rookie who gets a lot more attention thanks to his father.

Washington are a hard team to trust when they give up as many points as they do, but they are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven visits to take on the Los Angeles Lakers. Both of the Lakers losses have come by at least seven points this season and I will look for the Washington Wizards to cover here.


Monday 30th October
There is nothing wrong with taking a few days off to step back and re-assess during a long regular season like the one the NBA have.

I had a couple of rough picks a few days ago which I felt I had misread and so I decided to step back and review what I have been doing. It probably was a good decision, but I will look to end October with some winners to make sure the first month of the season is a positive one for the NBA Picks.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Miami Heat Pick: There won't be any real panic for teams in the first two weeks of the NBA season, but no one wants to build up a negative momentum at this stage. It can become difficult to get out of the malaise of a poor start unless you are one of the real contenders to win the NBA Championship like the Golden State Warriors or Cleveland Cavaliers, but that is not the case for the two teams in action on Monday.

Both the Miami Heat and Minnesota Timberwolves missed out on the Play Offs last season, but have come into the 2017/18 season with real ambitions of finishing in the top eight of their respective Conferences. While the Heat only missed out on a tie-breaker, the Timberwolves had more work to do and to that end they traded for Jimmy Butler to improve their chances around a young roster.

Neither team has made the start they would have wanted to the new season, although the Minnesota Timberwolves are coming off a big win over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Two of their three wins this season have actually been against the Thunder, but it isn't easy to trust any team who have been blown out by the Indiana Pacers and Detroit Pistons as Tom Thibodeau still struggles to get some consistent performances from his team.

Minnesota will still come in as the favourite against the Miami Heat who have dropped back to back games. The defensive frailties of both teams suggest we could get a high-scoring game here, but I do lean towards the Timberwolves having a slight edge which can see them end up with the victory.

That edge is the absence of Hassan Whiteside who remains questionable to return to the court. Without their big presence in the front court, Miami have could have some difficulties on the boards which could see Minnesota perhaps gaining the extra possessions to win this game and cover the number.

The Heat have also struggled in these small spread games as they are 0-3 against the spread when either favoured or dogged by up to 4 points. It has also been tough sledging for the Miami Heat when playing in South Beach as they have dropped to 1-9-1 against the spread in their last eleven home games, while the road team is also 4-1 against the spread in the last five in this series.

I hate how poorly Minnesota have continued to execute on the Defensive side of the court, but I do think they can do enough Offensively to overcome the stubborn resistance of the Heat. I will back the Timberwolves as the road favourite in Miami on Monday night.


Denver Nuggets @ New York Knicks Pick: The New York Knicks might be one of the weaker teams in the NBA at the moment, but they have a bona fide star to build around in Kristaps Porzingis. The Latvian scored 30 plus points for the fourth time in his first five games which is a record for the New York Knicks and Porzingis is clearly the man who is going to carry the can for the Knicks with Carmelo Anthony gone.

His performance helped New York upset the Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday and that also means the Knicks have won back to back games as they look to push back up to 0.500 for the season. They have a chance to do that on Monday when they return home to host the Denver Nuggets who had a dominating road win at the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday night.

The Nuggets have also won back to back games and both teams should come into this one with some confidence. It should be a close game, but I can't ignore the fact that the Knicks will be coming off an emotional win and one that will be difficult for a young roster to completely put to the back of their minds when they tip off to face the Nuggets.

That looks to make this a difficult spot for the Knicks who will be hosting the Houston Rockets, one of the premier teams in the NBA, on Wednesday. While the Knicks would have had to travel back to New York for this game, Denver were winning in nearby Brooklyn and that is another factor that seems to work in the favour of the Nuggets.

The play on the court will be close with both teams strong on the boards and having very similar shooting numbers. It will be important for the Denver Nuggets to try and get some runs together when they allow their bench players onto the court against the New York rotation and I do think the emotional factor of the win over the Cavaliers plays a part in that.

Denver are 5-0 against the spread in the last five in this series and the favourite is 9-3 against the spread in the last twelve. The Nuggets have also been strong in the second half of a back to back spot in recent months, while New York are just 1-6 against the spread following a win by double digits. I will look for the Denver Nuggets to have too much energy for the home team and make it three wins on the bounce while covering the spread.


Tuesday 31st October
That was an irritating Monday as the Miami Heat made big shot after big shot to stay within the spread for their game against the Minnesota Timberwolves. That happens sometimes but blowing 7 point leads twice in the last ninety seconds of regulation and then in Overtime was annoying to say the least from the Timberwolves.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: The Milwaukee Bucks have showed they could be amongst the best teams in the Eastern Conference by beating the Boston Celtics, but subsequent losses to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Celtics will raise some questions for them. They are a young team with plenty of potential, but the Bucks are looking for another stand out win to prove they are making strides in the right direction.

That isn't taking anything away from a 4-2 start to the season but outside of the win over the Boston Celtics I don't think the Bucks really have beaten any team of note. The Bucks were favoured to win their last three games that they have and so this is a big test for them when they host the Oklahoma City Thunder who are still trying to find their feet with a new look line up.

The Thunder have yet to beat a team that is expected to finish with a winning record on the season, while they have been beaten by two teams who could be contending for Play Off spots. That is not a real surprise when you think Oklahoma City are still trying to find room for Paul George and Carmelo Anthony alongside Russell Westbrook, although the concern is the losses to the Timberwolves and Utah Jazz are against teams who will be at the bottom of the Western Conference Play Offs at best.

Another fact that perhaps won't surprise is that the Milwaukee Bucks have looked more locked in Offensively compared with Oklahoma City. The Bucks have a team that is more settled than the one the Thunder have come in with and that has shown up Offensively, although the Thunder will be feeling confident having looked stronger on the Defensive side of the court.

Turnovers have been an issue for the Bucks and Oklahoma City will also feel they have the size to win on the boards. The game could easily come down to which of the two stars, Russell Westbrook or Giannis Antetokounmpo, can have the more efficient game.

You have to respect the 'Greek Freak' Antetokounmpo and what he has done for the Milwaukee Bucks, but there may be an early over-reliance on the star. At least the Thunder can spread the ball around a little more and they can extend their 5-2 record against the spread in the last seven in the series with Milwaukee.

Oklahoma City have played very well against the Eastern Conference in recent games and the Milwaukee Bucks may be in a tough spot as they play the second of three games in a four day stretch. I will lay the points with the Thunder in this one.


Detroit Pistons @ Los Angeles Lakers Pick: There is so much hype around Lonzo Ball which is not going to be going anywhere any time soon and that means every game, positive or negative, is a headline maker. At the moment Ball has had a couple of rough outings which would be expected of any rookie coming into the NBA, but it does feel like his father's brashness means more people revel in his failures than they should.

I don't care too much about what LaVar Ball has to say for himself, but Lonzo is a good player and is going to be a solid player for the Los Angeles Lakers. He does need time as he learns from the experiences he is having in the NBA and Ball is not exactly surrounded with a huge amount of talent as the Lakers have dropped down to 2-4.

Now they have to host the Detroit Pistons who have made a surprisingly good start to the season and looking to conclude this mini trip to California on a high. The Pistons have already won road games at the Los Angeles Clippers and the Golden State Warriors and will be returning home after going back to the Staples Center.

I do think Detroit will see their record regress back to the mean as they have made some big plays at key times. The raw numbers show that Detroit have been as efficient Offensively as they have Defensively but they have restricted the turnovers which has helped them win games.

Against the Los Angeles Lakers both teams should have their successes at both ends of the court, but the Lakers have been struggling with the three point shot which can make the difference. I do think the Pistons will be able to make their three point plays a little easier than the Los Angeles Lakers and that is likely to lead to the Pistons winning here.

The Pistons don't have a great record when visiting the Los Angeles Lakers, but they have won and covered in the last three in the series against them. Detroit have also covered in their last six road games and I am going to back them to win and cover at the Lakers in this one.

MY PICKS: 23/10 Detroit Pistons - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
23/10 Sacramento Kings - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
24/10 Orlando Magic - 5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
24/10 Boston Celtics - 9 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
24/10 Portland Trail Blazers - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
25/10 Cleveland Cavaliers - 7 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/10 San Antonio Spurs - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/10 Washington Wizards - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
30/10 Minnesota Timberwolves - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
30/10 Denver Nuggets - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
31/10 Oklahoma City Thunder - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
31/10 Detroit Pistons - 4 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

October 23-31: 4-8, - 4.32 Units (12 Units Staked, - 36% Yield)
October 17-22: 8-2, + 5.37 Units (10 Units Staked, + 53.7% Yield)

NFL Week 7 Picks 2017 (October 19-23)

Injuries have been the big news in the NFL this season, or so it feels, with Aaron Rodgers joining superstars like Odell Beckham Jr and JJ Watt in likely being done for the season.

The loss of Rodgers is a huge blow for the Green Bay Packers who I thought could get healthier and peak later in the season, but now I struggle to see them being much better than a Wild Card team. Even that might be a long shot despite liking Brett Hundley at UCLA, although Mike McCarthy and the rest of the Packers seem to believe in the back up Quarter Back.

There were some questions about Anthony Barr's hit on Rodgers with McCarthy suggesting it was 'unnecessary', but I thought it was a fair play and it is just a shame that Rodgers broke his collarbone and is likely out for the season.


One player who is still battling to stay on the field is Ezekiel Elliot and once again his on again/off again suspension has been switched to the off side. The Dallas Cowboys will have Elliot available for at least the next two weeks but this is an issue that will run and run.


Picking the top five in the NFL is a tough position to be in with some many teams looking like they have holes that need to be filled. Injuries are playing their part too and at this stage teams are probably keeping their fingers crossed that they are simply healthy when we get to the back end of December and moving through to the Play Offs.

My current top five has had some big changes after Week 6:

1) Philadelphia Eagles (5-1): They beat my Number 3 team going into Week 6 and the Eagles should have won at Arrowhead which makes them the current team to beat.

2) Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2): They showed Defensive class to shut down Kansas City and the Offense can only get better the more they play with each other.

3) Kansas City Chiefs (5-1): Maybe the Steelers are just Kansas City's kryptonite?

4) Minnesota Vikings (4-2): Favourites to win the NFC North after Aaron Rodgers went down and this Defensive unit is legit. Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford are getting healthier which could spark the Offensive side of the ball.

5) New England Patriots (4-2): I didn't want to pick a team that lost in one of these positions so ruled out the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers. New England still don't look right though and they could be knocked off when I write up the Week 8 post.


It sounds like it was a bloodbath for people picking NFL games in Week 6 with so many of the big favourites underperforming and some of those losing outright. My picks didn't go much better at 2-4, but I know it could have been a lot worse and I am looking to bounce back in Week 7.

This week's picks come below.


New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The injury suffered by Aaron Rodgers looks like one that will rule the Green Bay Quarter Back out of the rest of the season, although any confirmation of that is yet to be forthcoming from the Packers. It was perhaps no surprise that the Packers struggled as much as they did once Rodgers left the game against the Minnesota Vikings last week, but rumours about their demise may have been greatly exaggerated.

It was always going to have been a jolt to the system to see Rodgers go down and the limited work that Brett Hundley would have done during the week would not have been enough to take on an elite Defensive unit like the one the Vikings have. Hundley struggled in the game, but this time he has a whole week to prepare for the New Orleans Saints and that may give the Packers a much better feel for their new Quarter Back.

The game is an important one for Hundley on a personal level too as another outing where he struggles would mean the Packers will likely look for veteran help at Quarter Back in the two weeks before they play again. The bye week would give the Packers time to give someone new a chance to learn their system so it is up to Hundley to show that he is going to be the capable fill in for Rodgers that Mike McCarthy has been grooming behind Rodgers.

Having the Offensive Line back at full strength, if not full health, would be a big bonus for the Packers and you can't ignore the fact that Hundley has some solid Receivers to throw to. If the New Orleans Saints don't respect the Quarter Back and instead look to clamp down on the run, Hundley can find his way to Jordy Nelson, Devante Adams and Randall Cobb and make the plays through the air against a shaky Saints Secondary that have perhaps overachieved of late.

New Orleans are able to get some pressure up front which makes the return of the Offensive Line to peak strength very important, while Hundley was a capable runner from Quarter Back at UCLA and is likely to have a few read-option plays thrown into the mix.

I do think the Packers will be able to move the ball in Week 7, but of course the expectation has to be that New Orleans are able to do the same. Drew Brees remains one of the better Quarter Backs in the NFL and the Green Bay Secondary has had their problems which should mean Brees is able to carve them up through the air.

The Saints have found more balance in their Offensive play this year with a real ability to run the ball with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, while the latter is also a real threat coming out of the backfield. However this may be a big challenge for both Running Backs as the Green Bay Packers Defense is strongest up at the line of scrimmage and they have been able to slow the run down.

It won't shut down an Offense that has Brees throwing the ball, but it may just knock the Saints out of the rhythm they have been in as they have won three games in a row.

Green Bay without Aaron Rodgers are clearly not the same team, but I do like their chances with the points this week. I think Brett Hundley will be much better this week than he was coming in against the Vikings in Week 6 and I also think this is a match up he can exploit.

The Saints might have won three in a row, but they are generally not as good when they are playing outside and they are just 6-13 against the spread when favoured by more than a Field Goal on the road in recent seasons. I expect the Green Bay Packers will rally around their young Quarter Back and I will look for the Packers to cover as the home underdog, a spot in which they have performed very well in recent years.

Backing Brett Hundley over Drew Brees is not an easy decision, but I like the spot for the Green Bay Packers.


Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns Pick: The Tennessee Titans may still be the favourites in the AFC South despite the open nature of the Division and the key for them may be keeping Marcus Mariota free from injury. Mariota was back in Week 6 and while he is not looking like he is completely back to full health, there is no doubt as to how much of an upgrade he is on Matt Cassel and gives the Titans the best chance of making the Play Offs.

Coming of a Monday Night Football appearance and being favoured on the road against a struggling opponent like the Cleveland Browns does not look a great spot for the Titans. However Cleveland might be distracted by the continued upheaval at the Quarter Back position, while they will be travelling to London for a Week 8 game against the Minnesota Vikings which is another potential distraction for Hue Jackson's men.

DeShone Kizer is back at Quarter Back for the Browns this week after Kevin Hogan struggled as the starter in Week 7, but there looks to be so many more questions than answers for the Cleveland Browns. It is the most important position in the NFL yet Cleveland have no real plan for how they can improve their Quarter Back situation having traded out of spots that could have seen them take either Carson Wentz or Deshaun Watson.

Kizer isn't helped by a limited supporting cast at the skill positions which has been underlined by an underperforming running game which has been a surprise. The Titans Defensive Line has been strong when it comes to clamping down on the run and they will likely look for Kizer to beat them through the air, while Dick LeBeau will have some funky looks for the rookie Quarter Back to decipher.

Tennessee have also shown some improvement in the Secondary which makes it difficult to see how the Browns can move the chains with consistency this week. Kizer is also never too far away from throwing an Interception and turnovers could be another killer for Cleveland who have found a way to lose games or stall drives through mistakes of their own.

Where Cleveland could have some success is on the other side of the ball where the Defensive unit have played really well as some of their talented Draft Picks have started to blossom in the NFL. Mariota may be back for the Titans, but DeMarco Murray looks like he will miss out at Running Back, although that may not have made much of a difference if he could play with the the way the Cleveland Browns have been so stout against the run.

Mariota has not looked like he was able to run the ball as he could when fully healthy and that might mean Cleveland are able to stay with the Titans in this one. The Quarter Back is likely to be put under pressure from a significant pass rush the Browns are able to generate, and that has protected the Secondary who have some decent pieces in place to be a very good team.

However I do think turnovers could be the key difference in this one and I like the Titans to do enough on the ground to get into a position to win this one by around a Touchdown. The Browns head to London next and teams have struggled against the spread in their games a week before making that trip and I do think Tennessee are the stronger team and can show that on the day.

Both teams have some awful trends going against them, but I do think this game will mean enough to the Titans to make sure they don't overlook Cleveland. They are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven visits to Cleveland and I will look for the Titans to cover here.


Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: The Dallas Cowboys come out of their bye week with the news that Ezekiel Elliot is going to be able to travel with the team after his suspension that was handed out by the NFL was itself suspended. That story is likely to come up again in a couple of weeks when yet another hearing is going through the courts, but for now the Running Back will be available for Dallas.

This is a big game for the Dallas Cowboys who find themselves in a challenging NFC East and already at 2-3. The Cowboys do travel to the Washington Redskins in Week 8 which is a huge game, but that will lose some meaning if Dallas were to drop to 2-4 at the end of Week 7 when facing the winless San Francisco 49ers.

Any time you play on the road it is difficult, but the Cowboys look healthier coming out of their bye week and I do think they are going to make enough plays on both sides of the ball to help them through this one. Navarro Bowman has gone from the 49ers at Linebacker and they have other key Defensive injuries which is going to make it difficult for San Francisco to stall enough Dallas drives to stay with the Cowboys behind their rookie Quarter Back.

The Dallas running game did not make the best start to the season, but they look to be improving as the health of the Offensive Line has also improved. It will be a challenge for them against the San Francisco Defensive Line which has played the run effectively, but I do think Dallas can establish the run with Elliot as well as Dak Prescott making a few runs from the Quarter Back position to open things up.

Prescott should also have a very big day against a Secondary which has begun to give up plenty of passing yards and I do think the Cowboys will be able to move the ball effectively for much of the afternoon. The Offensive Line has given Prescott the time to find his Receivers downfield and I think the Quarter Back has a very strong day as he puts the Cowboys in a position to win the game.

There will always be a question about the Dallas Defensive unit and whether they are able to make enough plays to ease the pressure on the Offense to keep scoring lots of points to win games. It all starts up front for the Cowboys who have not had much success stopping the run and that should mean Carlos Hyde can get back on track this week despite rumours that he is being offered up for a trade.

Hyde can at least take some of the pressure off of CJ Beathard who came in for Brian Hoyer at Quarter Back for the 49ers last week and is making his first start of his career. While Beathard is going to be able to throw into a Secondary which has given up some plays through the air, he will need the running game to be established to slow down the Cowboys pass rush which is likely going to overwhelm the San Francisco Offensive Line.

Rookie Quarter Backs also go through some serious learning curves, especially on bad teams, and I think the Dallas Cowboys are going to be motivated enough to get back to 0.500 to get the better of the San Francisco 49ers. The Cowboys won here by a Touchdown last season and I think they can match that number coming out of the bye.

The 49ers are just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine home games and I will look for the Cowboys to cover in Week 7.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: The Cincinnati Bengals are coming out of a bye week and will be looking to have used that time to good effect as they face a AFC North rival when they travel to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are fresh off a big win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6 as they ended the last unbeaten record in the NFL, but there are still some questions that need to be answered by Pittsburgh who were one of the pre-season picks to win the Super Bowl that many experts put forward.

There is much to like about the Steelers on paper, especially on the Offensive side of the ball where they have some of the top players in the NFL at the skill position. Both Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown were key to their success over the Chiefs in Week 6, but Ben Roethlisberger still does not look like his old self which has to be a concern.

It is a big test for the Steelers Offensively in Week 7 as the Cincinnati Bengals have performed well on the Defensive side of the ball. The big test is going to be at the line of scrimmage as Pittsburgh try to get Bell established running the ball as they did against Kansas City, although this week they are facing a Defensive Line that has been able to clamp down on the run and are well rested.

Pittsburgh have some health issues on their own Offensive Line which might make it difficult for Bell to rip off the kind of runs he was last week. He is one of the best Running Backs in the NFL so you know he will find some holes, but the Bengals have been very good against the run and Bell's biggest impact might be as a Receiver out of the backfield as Roethlisberger's security blanket.

Moving the ball through the air is also going to be a big test for the Pittsburgh Steelers especially when you think of Roethlisberger's performances so far this season. He might find himself under more pressure than he has faced this season, but Big Ben has also been guilty of missing the throws that made him one of the best Quarter Backs in the NFL, while the Cincinnati Secondary have really been very strong thanks to the pressure they are getting up front.

It looks like this could be a game where the Steelers struggle to move the ball consistently, but the same can be said of the Cincinnati Bengals who have changed Offensive Co-Ordinator. Bill Lazor has at least sparked something from them, but the Bengals have to be considered one of the poorer Offenses in the NFL simply because of the poor Offensive Line play.

Joe Mixon might be the Running Back with the majority of carries going forward, but he is trying to find holes behind an Offensive Line which has not been able to create too many positive run blocks. Even though the Pittsburgh Defensive Line has not been as strong as previous editions, it won't be easy for Mixon considering how poorly the Bengals have been able to run the ball and so Cincinnati may have to rely on Andy Dalton and the passing game to keep the chains moving.

There are some injuries on the Pittsburgh Defensive Line which may help the Cincinnati run blockers, as well as protecting Dalton from the pass rush, but the Secondary remains one of the better ones in the NFL. AJ Green is a match up problem for any team, but Dalton is not going to be able to find his Receivers all day.

Everything is pointing to a low-scoring game as both Offenses could have their difficulties moving the ball in this one. With that in mind it is appealing getting more than a Field Goal start with the road underdog this week and the road team is 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five in the series.

The Steelers can be a poor home favourite to back as shown when they were beaten by the Jacksonville Jaguars a couple of weeks ago and coming off a big win might just see them underperform here. Taking the Bengals with the points looks the right side in this one.


Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: When I put together my shortlist for the picks in Week 7, the Denver Broncos as an underdog at the Los Angeles Chargers leaped off the page. It has been the same for the sharps and the public to the extent that the line has shifted a couple of points and now the Broncos come in as the favourite.

That does change the mindset of the players and you have to be a little ignorant to not know that the players will be well aware of who is favoured and dogged on a weekly basis. Some players have alluded to the spread before games so I am convinced the Broncos and Chargers would have seen the situation this week.

Going in as the underdog would have been a huge spot for the Denver Broncos who were embarrassed by the winless New York Giants at home in Week 6. That game was on national television too which means the Broncos would have been hugely motivated as the underdog especially against a Divisional rival who have won two games in a row.

While being favoured has taken away a little of my enthusiasm for this pick, I still want to back the Denver Broncos to win and cover in Week 7 even though they have a big game against the Kansas City Chiefs on deck. If they had won last week, I would not have been interested in backing the Broncos, but they need to bounce back this week and that should be motivation enough for a full performance.

CJ Anderson had a terrible game for the Broncos last week, but he has a nice chance for a bounce back effort in Week 7. The Broncos have been able to pave the way for some big runs this season and I expect they can establish that side of their Offense against a Chargers team who have given up 158 yards per game over their last three games and those have come at 5.3 yards per carry.

Running the ball makes life much easier for Trevor Siemian who came through an injury in Week 6. The Quarter Back will need the run to at least slow down the Los Angeles pass rush, while he has some wheels which can at least see Siemian take off and scramble for First Downs. The Denver Receiving corps has had some injury problems which might affect the ability to throw the ball against this solid San Diego Secondary, but I think getting the run established will open things up for Siemian and the Broncos.

The other benefit of running the ball is keeping the Denver Defensive unit well rested and able to produce their best. Like the season they won the Super Bowl, the Broncos know the Defensive unit can take them very far in the Play Offs as long as the Offense gives them just enough and I think they play better than they did in Week 6.

Denver struggled to stop the New York Giants ripping off some big gains on the ground in Week 6, but this is one of the strongest Defensive Lines in the NFL and I don't think Melvin Gordon will have as much success. Los Angeles have not been able to run the ball as effectively as they like anyway, but now face this Broncos Line who are looking to show they are a lot better than last week when they were upset by the Giants.

Keeping Los Angeles in third and long will take away some of the effectiveness of Philip Rivers and give this strong Denver Secondary the chance to make some big plays. It will also mean Denver can unleash their pass rush and at least try and put some pressure on Rivers, who while being well protected will also need more time from third and long than he will perhaps get.

Rivers has produced some big numbers through the air in recent games and he has steered clear from the Interceptions which have blighted some of his performance. However it will be a much different challenge facing the Denver Broncos than some of the Secondaries Rivers has been battling and scoring points has continued to be a problem for the Los Angeles Chargers.

I like the Denver Broncos who are 5-1 against the spread in their last six road games against this Divisional rival and who should have more fans in the stands. The road team is 10-3-2 against the spread in the last fifteen in the series while I also like the fact that Denver are 5-2 against the spread coming in off a loss.

Los Angeles have been a poor road team dating back to their time at San Diego and I will look for the Denver Broncos to bounce back from their Week 6 loss with a win and cover in Week 7.


Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots Pick: Everyone will be talking about the Super Bowl and the manner in which the Atlanta Falcons blew a lead that really did not look possible. No one is talking about 'revenge' in the Atlanta locker room, especially not when the Falcons have lost back to back games and simply need to get back to winning ways as soon as possible.

In usual years you would think the New England Patriots as a small favourite at home is an easy play, but the Patriots have not looked right this season and the sharp money is actually with the Atlanta Falcons despite the two game losing run. You can understand why when you see how these two teams have performed this season too.

The Patriots have looked really bad Defensively which was highlighted in the way they made Josh McCown and the New York Jets look more than a competent Offensive unit last week. Now they face an Atlanta team that may have underperformed Offensively in their loss to the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins, but who have the firepower to at least give the Patriots all they can handle.

Matt Ryan has not performed to the level that he and many of the fans would have expected, but this looks a nice chance to bounce back. Ryan has been guilty of one or two mistakes that he didn't make during the run to the Super Bowl last season, but they should be able to get back on track here against a Secondary who have given away too much through the air.

I would expect Ryan to find the likes of Julio Jones downfield, while the Patriots have had a limited pass rush to affect the Quarter Back which should not be a problem for Ryan who is well protected behind this Offensive Line. The whole Offensive unit should be boosted by Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman being able to rip off some chunks of yards on the ground too and I think the Falcons should have plenty of success with the ball in their hands.

That makes it another challenging week for Tom Brady who has not looked like missing a step so far this season. Brady has been under pressure to keep up with Offenses who have been scoring so many points against the Patriots, but he has been able to lead New England into a position to win games even if they have fallen short twice at home already this season.

It may be down to Brady if the Falcons continue to play the run as hard as they have and that does make it tough for the veteran Quarter Back as Atlanta send the pass rush to get to him. The Falcons should be able to get to Brady and at least force some throws under pressure.

While Brady has shown he can deal with that and still make big plays, it can be difficult to keep doing it while knowing the Defensive unit are not making enough plays to stop teams from scoring their points. I do think New England will have their successes because that is what Brady does, but the Falcons with the points should be able to get close to the upset that Kansas City and Carolina have already produced here.

Atlanta are 0-5 against the spread in the last five games against New England, but the road team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five too. The Falcons are 9-2 against the spread in their last eleven road games with both losses they have suffered coming in their new Stadium, and I am going to take the points with the Falcons in this one.

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals + 5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 1 Point @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons + 3 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)