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Thursday, 28 September 2017

NFL Week 4 Picks 2017 (September 28-October 2)

I didn't have any NFL Picks in Week 3 due to the lack of time to research them and it sounds like I was fortunate to miss out on what has been a really poor week for most.

Games saw a number of surprising performances from teams, but we should begin to see more settled outcomes going forward as the season is beginning to take shape. We are almost at a time where the bye weeks start kicking in with the first of those coming in Week 5 and teams will be looking to keep their Play Off ambitions alive by avoiding defeats in three of their first four games.


Last weekend the big news going into the Sunday games was the words coming from President Trump against those who had kneeled during the National Anthem in NFL games. An attack from the President saw the NFL rally together and a number of teams and, more importantly perhaps, a number of owners join their players in either locking arms or kneeling during the Anthem.

It has sparked something of a backlash from those who feel it is disrespecting the flag and the nation, while others have made it clear they will #TakeAKnee alongside those players who did.

My main issue is that the whole reason Colin Kaepernick first did this was to raise discussions about social injustices and now it feels like the whole stance has been taken over by those who perhaps are unsure why they are taking a knee or are doing it as a direct reaction to the President's words.

Sports Illustrated have a cover out about the athletes who have been involved and didn't even have Kaepernick on the cover which shows you how far this discussion has moved away from the real reason behind it.

Now it is between two camps who feel they as Americans have the freedom to protest how they want compared with those who think you should stand for the National Anthem no matter what rather than any discussion about social injustices that Kaepernick was hoping to provoke. It saddens me that the issue has been lost as much as it has and I really hope those who were at the forefront before this became a 'trend' can remind others as to WHY taking a knee has been so important for them.


The above issue is sure to rumble on in the weeks and months ahead and I fully expect the NBA players to do the same when the regular season begins on October 17th. It is an important issue as long as the reason behind it is discussed but I am not holding my breath as that has been lost in the furore and ever since this became a lot more of a prominent thing around the Stadiums on Sunday.


The NFL looks much more competitive through the first few weeks of the new season and I don't think there is a stand out team that you would pick with confidence to win the Super Bowl. Only a couple of teams remain unbeaten and there are a host of teams at 2-1, but this is not the time of the season when teams want to create separation, but instead build up towards January and February.

My current top five teams would be:

1. Atlanta Falcons- I thought there may be a Super Bowl hangover, but instead this is a team that looks desperate to show they belong at the very top of the NFL.

2. Kansas City Chiefs- They may be the best balanced team in the AFC, but I do wonder if Alex Smith can raise his game to a high enough level to take the Chiefs to the Super Bowl.

3. Philadelphia Eagles- This might be a surprising place for many to see the Eagles as high as I have them, but their sole loss came on the road at Kansas City. They have talent on both sides of the ball and have players who will come back and improve them further.

4. New England Patriots- While Tom Brady is around, the New England Patriots will always be there or thereabouts, but there are holes Defensively that need to be fixed.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers- The Steelers haven't hit top form yet, but they have the talent on both sides of the ball and I can only see Ben Roethlisberger improving his play as 2017 develops which will help them get very close to taking the next step.

These positions will change over the course of the season and I wouldn't be surprised if my top five are much different in a month from now. That will all depend on injuries and the way teams play and so only time will tell how things will go for teams as we move through the weeks.

Now onto the NFL Week 4 Picks in a week which includes the second of four games in London this season.


Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The Green Bay Packers (2-1) and the Chicago Bears (1-2) both needed to go into Overtime in Week 3, but both were able to rally for important wins. There isn't much time for either team to prepare for the Week 4 Thursday Night Football game in what has been an age-old rivalry and the only hope is that some of the injuries both teams are dealing with can clear up in the three days between Week 3 and Week 4.

This has been a series the Green Bay Packers have tended to dominate in recent years and it would be a surprise if that doesn't continue on Thursday. The Packers were beaten at Lambeau Field two years ago by the Chicago Bears in what was a big upset, so there has to be some respect paid to the Bears here.

Injuries on both sides of the ball are hurting the Green Bay Packers and the lack of time between this game and the one they played on Sunday means they are unlikely to have too many players return. That may not be the case in Week 5 with the additional rest that will come before that next game, but this week it will mean this is perhaps a more difficult game for the Packers than it would be if both teams were fully healthy.

Despite having one of the best Quarter Backs in the NFL, Green Bay have to give Aaron Rodgers more time than they have been able to do behind this makeshift Offensive Line. Key pieces are set to miss out again in Week 4 which should mean the Bears Defensive Line are able to win up front and at least stall some drives by pressurising Rodgers.

It will likely come down to Rodgers showing off all his experience at Quarter Back by making the Bears mistime snap counts and also his ability to get outside of the pocket and make plays on the run. His Wide Receivers are still a solid group even if Randall Cobb is not able to go and Rodgers will feel the likes of Jordy Nelson and Devante Adams can find the spaces when he does have or make the time to throw downfield.

Rodgers is unlikely to receive much help from a ground game which has struggled thanks to the injuries on the Offensive Line. The Bears have been able to slow down the run which should mean they keep Green Bay in downs and distances where their pass rush can be unleashed, but Rodgers is likely able to move the chains against a Bears Secondary that is going to struggle to stay with the Receivers he has.

It will mean it is down to Mike Glennon and the Chicago Offense to try and keep up with the Green Bay Packers and they certainly will feel they have some chances to do that. The Bears will feel they can give the ball to Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen at the Running Back positions to move the chains on the ground especially against a Green Bay Defensive Line that may be missing Mike Daniels and who have given up 4.5 yards per carry early in the season.

That would be a huge boost for the Bears who just trampled the Pittsburgh Steelers Defensive Line on Sunday and it will be key for the Chicago Bears Offense to stay in third and manageable spots in this one. They should be able to sustain some drives on the ground behind Howard and Cohen, while the latter is also likely to catch a few passes out of the backfield and make some huge plays.

Teams may look to expose the injuries in the Secondary that the Green Bay Packers are dealing with, but I am not sure Glennon and this Bears Receiving corps are capable of doing that. He hasn't been given a lot of time in passing downs, so the game plan may be to simply lean on the Running Backs for as long as possible, while Glennon did not play well in the one road start he has had in 2017.

The Bears should have their successes in this one, but I think the Packers are the better team and may have a few of their injured faces back which could be a huge boost. The most notable could be Mike Daniels who may help to slow down the Bears rushing the ball to enough of an extent to force Chicago to rely on their Quarter Back to move the chains with his arm.

That is where I think Glennon may make a couple of key mistakes which allows the Green Bay Packers to pull away in this one. The Bears are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games following a straight up win, and they are 3-10 against the spread in their last thirteen against the Green Bay Packers.

I will look for Rodgers and the Green Bay Offense to do enough to cover the spread in this one in what could be a fairly low-scoring game. I was hoping the spread would come down off the key number 7, but I do think Green Bay will win by double digits as they do enough to slow down Chicago on the ground and give Rodgers just enough time to carve up the Secondary.


It's been a long weekend and I am attending the Miami-New Orleans game in London on Sunday which means I will be putting down the picks for the Sunday games in the section below.

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 8 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 2 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 13 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Tuesday, 26 September 2017

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (September 26-28)

We are just days away from the second international break in the 2017/18 season, but there is plenty of football to come over the next six days.

It all begins with Match Day 2 in the Champions League and Europa League over the coming three days before the final round of domestic football before the final World Cup Qualifiers begin next Thursday.

The next few months are going to be very busy for all the teams in the top European Leagues and that makes trying to earn Qualification out of the Groups as quickly as possible the key for the clubs playing in the Champions League and Europa League.

That is exactly what the managers of the English clubs will be preaching over the next month as Match Day 2, Match Day 3 and Match Day 4 are completed before the November international break.


APOEL v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is a really big game for Tottenham Hotspur who would love to put another three points on the board before having to face Real Madrid twice and then visit Borussia Dortmund. The 3-1 home win over Dortmund has given Tottenham Hotspur a boost of confidence in this tough Group, but it would be for naught if they are not able to back that up in Nicosia.

That should not mean overlooking APOEL who have come through three Rounds to make the Group Stage and who have won 8 of 9 home European ties. That includes beating the likes of Olympiacos and Athletic Bilbao and it is clear that APOEL are much stronger at home than on their travels.

Temperatures in Cyprus can be surprising to visiting teams and that has to be a concern for Tottenham Hotspur, although they may be visiting APOEL at the right time.

APOEL have started poorly domestically in the 2017/18 season and they are facing a Tottenham Hotspur team who have won 5 straight away games and have scored plenty of goals in that time. Losing Jan Vertonghen and Dele Alli to suspensions is a blow for Tottenham Hotspur, but they still head to Cyprus looking the more confident team having scored three times at West Ham United over the weekend.

This is still going to be a tough game for Tottenham Hotspur, but I do think they will prove to be too good for APOEL who have to raise their game significantly if they are going to win this one. Losing 2 of 3 at home is not the kind of form that APOEL would have wanted to be in ahead of this one and I am going to back Tottenham Hotspur to hand APOEL a rare home European loss and do that while covering the Asian Handicap.


Besiktas v Leipzig Pick: This is the first season Leipzig are playing European Football and I have to say I am surprised they are favoured to win at a tough venue like Besiktas. The 1-1 home draw with Monaco shows there is a gap to bridge for Leipzig and I can't have them as favourites to win here.

Besiktas have been a strong team at home and have lost just 1 of 15 here in all competitions. They are also unbeaten in 9 home European ties and Besiktas have won 3 in a row which makes backing them with the start on the Asian Handicap look appealing.

This is also a Leipzig team who have lost 2 of their 3 away games in the Bundesliga this season and I think backing the home team with the start should at least return a portion as a win.


Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: September has been a really good month for Manchester City with the goals flowing and the plaudits being handed out to Pep Guardiola's men, but they have to keep the momentum going as they get set to visit Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

Stopping Manchester City is going to be a really difficult task for Shakhtar Donetsk considering the goals the home side have been scoring. The layers don't want to take any chances either as they are asking Manchester City to win by another wide margin for the full pay out.

That could happen, but I do think Shakhtar Donetsk are a better side than people may expect as they showed by getting to the Europa League Quarter Final last season. They have experience in the Champions League and while not expecting to be a challenger to win this competition, they showed against Napoli that Shakhtar Donetsk won't be intimidated by the bigger names in the Group.

They did win plenty of away games at the lower level in the Europa League, but Shakhtar Donetsk have lost their last 4 away Champions League games they have played. That includes a loss at Young Boys last season and Manchester City should have enough to secure the three points.

Instead of looking for them to cover the Asian Handicap, Manchester City could be worth backing to win another game with a clean sheet, which has been an underrated feature of their performances this past month. While not being completely dominant at the back, Manchester City have enough possession to limit the chances that teams will create against them and I think they may just be a little too good for Shakhtar Donetsk on the day.

It might not be the flood of goals that have been featuring in recent Manchester City games, but Pep Guardiola's only concern will be getting up to 6 points ahead of the double header with Napoli and I think his team will do that. Backing them to win with a clean sheet is odds against and is worth a back here.


Monaco v Porto Pick: In 2004 this was the Champions League Final, but both Monaco and Porto look some way short of being able to go all the way this time around. Monaco have lost some key players over the last transfer window from the team that were in the Semi Final in the 2016/17 season, while Porto are not the powerhouse they were under Jose Mourinho.

The three points on offer is very important on Match Day 2 as both Monaco and Porto are looking for their first win in the Group Stage of the Champions League.

Monaco might have lost some key players, but they have been playing well enough at home domestically to think they can have the edge in this one. Porto are playing well too, but they have not been able to take that form into the Champions League where they have lost 2 of their last 4 away games in the competition and I think the home team can be backed at odds against in this one.

It will likely be a tight match that will come down to which team will be more clinical in front of goal, but I think Monaco can earn the edge at home.


Spartak Moscow v Liverpool Pick: This could be an important game for Spartak Moscow and Liverpool after draws on Match Day 1 with the winning team likely to feel pretty good about their chances of progressing to the Last 16. It does feel like the game could be more important to the hosts having dropped two points in Maribor earlier this month, but this is a big test for Spartak Moscow having been a little inconsistent throughout this new season.

They will always feel like they will get a chance against the Liverpool defence, but the worry for Spartak Moscow has to be in their own final third. This is the first time in the 2017/18 season that Jurgen Klopp can play all four of his attacking players as Sadio Mane returns from a suspension to join Philippe Coutinho, Mohammed Salah and Roberto Firmino.

All four could start on Tuesday and that will put Spartak Moscow under pressure considering they have conceded at least twice in 2 of their last 3 home games.

When Liverpool go forward they do look very dangerous and having Coutinho in the line up gives them a bit more creativity when things are tighter in the opponent's half of the field. I do think Liverpool will be the stronger team on the day, but you always have to consider how poor they can be defensively which should give Spartak Moscow their chances.

However Spartak Moscow could be missing Quincy Promes which would take away a big threat they have and I think Liverpool will take advantage. A long trip to Moscow is always difficult, but Liverpool should be experienced enough to deal with that having won 0-1 at Rubin Kazan in their last Europa League campaign.

I will look for Liverpool to earn the three points in this second Champions League game and I think they can win by a couple of goals on the day to cover the Asian Handicap set. Even a one goal win will earn a profitable return and I do expect Liverpool to win here.


Atletico Madrid v Chelsea Pick: This is the kind of Champions League fixture that you may expect to see much later in the competition, but Atletico Madrid and Chelsea have to face one another in the Group Stage this time around.

It could be a big game for the two teams who are battling Roma to find their way into the Last 16 and so caution might be the order of the day. That perhaps comes a little naturally to both Diego Simeone and Antonio Conte although both managers have players who can create the magic to win games.

A new Stadium makes it European debut on Wednesday when Atletico Madrid host Chelsea, but they have been strong at home in the Champions League with 9 wins from their last 11 home games in the competition. They are very tough to beat in front of their own fans, but you do have to wonder if the players will have some issues in their new environment.

That hasn't shown up in the League though as Atletico Madrid have won both games played in their new home.

Chelsea have been in fine form themselves, but this is a significant step up in level of opponent compared with games at Leicester City and Stoke City. It is a fixture from which a point would be appreciated and I think that is what Chelsea will be looking for and perhaps trying to stun Atletico Madrid on the counter attack.

Ultimately I don't think there will be much between the teams because Atletico Madrid are not really a team that will ever blow an opponent away. Chelsea defend really well with the three at the back, but they will be tested by the quality Atletico Madrid have and I think the home team at odds against is a big price that has to be backed.

The home record in the Champions League is the reason Atletico Madrid have come so close to winning the competition in recent years and I think they will do enough to find their way to the three points in this one.


CSKA Moscow v Manchester United Pick: Not many would have picked CSKA Moscow to win in Lisbon on Match Day 1 and that surprise result means two clubs with 3 points meet in this fixture. Manchester United were as comfortable as most predicted when seeing off Basel at Old Trafford but this is a tough looking away game for them.

However this is also the kind of fixture where Jose Mourinho knows exactly how to set up his side to earn the victory. I would expect Mourinho to make sure Manchester United are tough to beat with the belief that his team are going to be capable of creating some chances of their own to put themselves in a position to make it two wins from two in the Group Stage.

Last season Manchester United showed they can perform very solidly away from home in the Europa League after losses to Feyenoord and Fenerbahce. Following those early Group setbacks, Manchester United beat Zorya, Saint-Etienne and Celta Vigo without conceding a goal, and earned 1-1 draws in Rostov and Anderlecht too.

The game in Anderlecht looked to be the perfect away performance from Manchester United before a late goal was conceded and I think this is a squad of players who will head to Moscow with plenty of confidence. The Europa League success has given the players a shot in the arm and Manchester United have looked solid defensively this season which is likely to be the foundation for any success here.

CSKA Moscow have been playing well to get into the Champions League Group Stage, but they haven't been dominant at home and have found the step up to the European level a tough one to bridge. The win in Benfica may have improved CSKA Moscow's own confidence, but they were beaten 0-1 by Tottenham Hotspur in the Group Stage last season and I think Manchester United can match that.

It won't be easy and I do wonder if Jose Mourinho will break up the Phil Jones-Eric Bailly partnership that has been so solid for Manchester United this season. If they do start I think Manchester United can keep CSKA Moscow at arm's length and there is enough quality in the squad to find a breakthrough here.

September isn't a bad time to play in Moscow and I expect the playing surface to be one that Manchester United can get the ball down and try to dictate things. Backing Manchester United to be solid defensively and win here with a clean sheet looks a big price.

Winning away from home in European competition has not been something Manchester United have done too frequently in recent years, but their last 6 wins on their travels in the Champions League and Europa League have come with a clean sheet. I will back that to be the outcome of this one as Manchester United move into a strong position to try and win this Group as early as possible.


BATE Borisov v Arsenal PickThis is easily the kind of fixture you could have seen in the Champions League in recent years, but BATE Borisov and Arsenal have to settle for a clash in the Europa League Group Stage this time around.

You would have to say that while Arsenal are going to be making changes, they should still be starting a strong enough team who can get the win here in Belarus. It won't be easy with how well BATE Borisov can play at home, especially when you consider they are unbeaten in 6 home European games and in the last Champions League Group Stage they did beat Roma and draw with Bayer Leverkusen.

However this is an Arsenal side who have looked better over the last few weeks and who should have a number of players on the fringes of the first team who will start here. They showed against FC Koln that those players will be enough in the early games in the Europa League and I think Arsenal will be able to create the chances to win here.

You can't always know what a manager will decide to do in this competition, but Arsene Wenger has players like Mesut Ozil, Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud in the final third who should earn the start. Those players should be good enough to create chances against this BATE Borisov team and I would expect Arsenal to be in a position to win this game by a couple of goals.

BATE Borisov have shown it won't be easy here in recent years, but they have not played too many teams of the level of Arsenal and I will back the latter to cover the Asian Handicap in the victory.


Nice v Vitesse Pick: There would have been a lot of hope for Nice that they could find their way into the Champions League Group Stage this season, but they exited in the Qualifiers during what has been an inconsistent start to the campaign.

Things have looked to be improving of late during a 4 game unbeaten run, but Nice have struggled to find the right performances in their European games. 1 win from 5 home European ties since the beginning of last season is a big disappointment for Nice, but their 1-5 win at Zulte-Waregem will have given them a shot of confidence.

They should be too good for Vitesse despite the side coming in with an impressive 1-2 win at Ajax which is part of a good start to the new season.

However Vitesse are lacking experience in European football and that naivety may have been a reason they were beaten 2-3 by Lazio on Match Day 1. Playing away from home is another challenge for Vitesse and I will look for Nice to have a little too much for them in this on and will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Ostersund v Hertha Berlin Pick: There is clearly a difference in quality in the Swedish and German top flights and that is a big reason Hertha Berlin will be the favourites to win in Ostersund.

They are capable of doing that, but Hertha Berlin are not a team who have travelled very well in recent months with 10 losses from their last 15 away games in all competitions. Hertha Berlin did recently win a German Cup game at Hansa Rostock, but teams have underestimated the challenge of coming to Ostersund and that may see the favourites come unstuck here.

You have to respect Ostersund have only lost 1 of their last 15 home games in all competitions, but the majority of those have been in the Swedish domestic League. However they have also won all 3 home Europa League games this season with wins over Galatasaray and PAOK very strong results.

Ostersund have goals in their side at home and their 0-2 win in Zorya was a really good result already in the Group. Beating Hertha Berlin won't be easy, but I will back the home team with the start here which will at least provide a positive return as long as Ostersund can avoid defeat.


Everton v Apollon Limassol Pick: Winning back to back games at Goodison Park over the last eight days will have done Ronald Koeman and Everton the world of good and they will be confident they can get their Europa League Group back on track. The 3-0 hammering in Atalanta means Everton can't afford to drop points at home if they do want to make their way through to the Last 32, especially with a back to back against Lyon to come.

They have beaten Sunderland and Bournemouth here and Koeman will likely pick another strong team against Apollon Limassol.

The Cypriot League is not the toughest around and Tottenham Hotspur's win at APOEL earlier in the week will have shown the difference in the quality between their League and the Premier League in England. Apollon Limassol did show heart to score a late equaliser against Lyon in the Group already, but they may not be as strong when they head out on their travels.

Apollon Limassol have already lost at Aberdeen in the Europa League this season and I think Everton will get the better of them here.

Clean sheets have been a problem for Everton, but they have only conceded 4 goals in 6 home games in the 2017/18 season and three of those came against Tottenham Hotspur. That is going to be the foundation from which Koeman will look to build and I think Everton can be backed to win this one with a clean sheet at odds against.


Ludogorets Razgrad v Hoffenheim Pick: This looks like it will be a difficult Group to come through with three clubs who began in the Champions League making up the quartet, while Sporting Braga are the exception but also the only club with a win through the first round of fixtures.

That makes this game in Bulgaria between Ludogorets Razgrad and Hoffenheim a big one for both clubs.

Ludogorets Razgrad have the extensive European experience to call upon and have won their last 3 home games in European Football, but Hoffenheim have to be respected having continued to surprise in Germany. However Hoffenheim are looking for their first positive result in European competition having lost all 3 games they have played against Liverpool (twice) and Sporting Braga.

Hoffenheim are a team who can get forward and score goals, but they are perhaps a little naive at the back. That is highlighted by the fact they have scored at least least twice in 3 consecutive away games, but at the same time have conceded at least twice in each of those games.

I do think Ludogorets Razgrad have the experience to take advantage of the defensive issues Hoffenheim will have, but I also think the German club will be dangerous in the final third. Picking a winner is therefore tougher than you may think, but picking at least three goals to be shared out looks the obvious play.

Usually it won't work out when everything is pointing to an 'obvious' pick, but I do think these two teams are built to share out goals. I will back at least three to be shared out with all three results on the win-draw-win market a distinct possibility.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Besiktas + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 2.20 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Monaco @ 2.15 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 2.62 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet365 (2 Units)
Nice - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ostersund + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton Win to Nil @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Ludogorets-Hoffenheim Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

September Update: 17-21-3, - 4.28 Units (77 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)

Saturday, 23 September 2017

Boxing Picks 2017- Joseph Parker vs Hughie Fury/Jorge Linares v Luke Campbell (September 23rd)

Are most people over the controversial draw last week in Las Vegas in the super-fight between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin?

In the aftermath of the cards being read out, there was so much anger rightly directed at Adalaide Byrd for what looks like the worst card I have seen for many years as she decided Canelo had won ten out of twelve Rounds in what was clearly a very close fight.

Byrd has been stepped down as a judge and is unlikely to be called upon again in 2017, but I think the wide nature of her scorecard has driven the 'robbery' call.

I scored the fight live and had it 115-113 but did tweet out moments before the decision that a draw wouldn't surprise me with a couple of Rounds here and there that could easily have been scored the other way to my own.

If the cards had been 115-113 and 114-114 as we had seen and Byrd had 115-113 to Canelo, I don't think there would have been as much outrage as we saw. So much was down to the wide decision she gave to Canelo and that is what gives Boxing a black eye more than the overall draw outcome.

Will we see it again? I am not sure Canelo won't want to wait until there is more slippage from Golovkin who didn't take a backward step all night and was untroubled by the power the Mexican threw at him. May 2018 still looks the most likely outcome for the rematch, but I wouldn't be surprised if Canelo doesn't try and push it back to September 2018 or even May 2019 if both fighters remain at the very top of the Middleweight Division as will be expected.


Billy Joe Saunders may have something to say about that, although he looks to be the odd man out after the draw was read out in Vegas. Saunders will be back in December, but the mega-fight he is calling for looks unlikely until 2018 and the hope is that Saunders remains focused and listening to what Dominic Ingle is telling him.

I would be surprised if Amir Khan is the next opponent for Saunders in December with the build they would want to do for that fight, while Daniel Jacobs would be a very dangerous proposition. However that may be the only way to tempt either Canelo or GGG into a fight if they decide to miss out on the rematch next May when Saunders could step in.

Jacobs would have something to say about that with many people believing he beat Golovkin and certainly more than those who think Canelo won last weekend. The American would love the rematch with Golovkin, but picking up a title first may force the issue more than just the first fight and how well he performed in that one.


We move on this week to two British fighters in World Title fights in Manchester and Los Angeles, while the World Boxing Super Series promises a barnstormer in the Cruiserweight tournament. Last weekend also saw a really good fight between Callum Smith and Erik Skoglund in the Super Series and that tournament is certainly providing plenty of interest with the fights they have already put together and those that are upcoming.

The Quarter Finals continue over the next month in the lead up to the two huge Heavyweight World Title fights at the end of October and early November as the Boxing world continues to provide the fans with what they want.

And we may even hear that David Haye and Tony Bellew have agreed to a rematch in December with an announcement expected imminently after both fighters appeared to have signed off on things according to their social media accounts.


Joseph Parker vs Hughie Fury
Most fans of the Heavyweight Division in Boxing will be looking forward to the big defences that Anthony Joshua and Deontay Wilder have signed up for in the coming weeks.

However the final belt in the Heavyweight Division is up for grabs on Saturday evening and it is a chance for Joseph Parker and Hughie Fury to get in line for the huge fights in the Division with a win.

Hughie Fury has long been considered the better of the two Boxing cousins in Tyson Fury and himself, but injury problems have curtailed the progress in his career. Injury also postponed this fight from the original May date and it actually means Fury has been out of the ring since May 2016 and that has to be a factor in this one.

You have to respect the fact that the Fury camp have spoken about this being the best version of Hughie now his issues are behind him and they have proven to be more than bluster when guiding Tyson Fury to the huge upset of Wladimir Klitschko in Germany. I imagine Fury is going to try to be awkward and hard to hit like his cousin proved to be in the win over Klitschko, but the lay off from the ring makes it harder to know if the timing will be right in this one.

10 KOs from 20 fights doesn't suggest Fury has the power to stop Joseph Parker as he has been claiming, but the latter has a lot to prove in this one too.

As the competition has ramped up, Parker has found it much more difficult to stop opponents like he had been doing and some of the reputation has dropped because of that. 3 of his last 5 fights have gone to the cards and Parker was perhaps a little fortunate to have a World Title to his name when earning a Majority Decision win over Andy Ruiz Jr.

Parker didn't look that good in his win in May either, but he has got Rounds under the belt and I think that will hold him in good stead in this Title fight. While Fury can come again, I think this is more important for Parker whose reputation and chances to fight the very best in the Division have to be resting on staying unbeaten and with a World Title to bring to the table.

The layers seem to think that this fight either ends in a Decision win for Fury or a stoppage for Parker, but I think we have seen that Parker is able to use his aggression to pick up enough Rounds to win this one on the cards. It may come down to what you like to see and Hughie Fury is the home fighter which does make things a little grey around what the judges are going to be scoring.

I do think Fury will frustrate Parker by not engaging as much as his talk in the build up has suggested. That making an opponent miss and countering style that Tyson Fury took to Germany to dethrone Klitschko is one that has worked before and Hughie Fury is likely to want to try and go the same route, but I do wonder about eighteen months out of the ring and whether that will be enough to beat a come forward fighter like Parker.

I am questioning whether Parker has the power his early wins suggested, but he might just do enough to win this one and keep the big fight with Anthony Joshua in his future. The lack of recent ring time has to go against Fury but I think he is tough enough to get to the scorecards and I can see a controversial Split Decision being the outcome.

The Champion may just have enough to retain and the Fury's may call for the rematch, but backing Parker to win this on a Decision looks a big price.


Jorge Linares vs Luke Campbell
This is perhaps not the fight that people would have been hoping Jorge Linares would have after the two intense battles with Anthony Crolla, but the big Unification fights will have to wait.

Most are hoping to see Linares take on Mikey Garcia sooner rather than later, but Garcia has been busy and the Lightweight Champion does not want to spend too long out of the ring. That means Linares has decided to take on another British fighter, although it is perhaps a surprise that Luke Campbell is the opponent rather than Terry Flanagan.

Campbell has won 5 fights in a row since his one professional loss and the last three have come by stoppage, but this is a big step up for the Olympic Gold Medalist. He did beat Darleys Perez last time out, the former Lightweight World Champion who had his belt taken away by Crolla, but this is a big, big step up for him to take.

The last two fights for Linares have gone the distance against Crolla to show that he is a boxer who won't gas too late and I do think he is going to win this fight.

The question is how will he win the fight and I do wonder if Campbell will be wanting to take the same sort of punishment Crolla did. Crolla was almost pulled out by his corner in the rematch with Linares and it was only his heart that allowed him to be given the chance to come out for the last Round, but Campbell is younger and his handlers have to think he can come again as long as he isn't taking too much damage.

That may see a decision made in the second half of the fight where Campbell is told to fight another day like Crolla was, especially as Linares should be able to show he is a level above after the first two or three Rounds are in the books.

An Olympic Gold Medalist should be respected, but Campbell may be in above his head here in the professional ranks and I am looking for Linares to break him down and earn a late stoppage to keep the wins going.


Yunier Dorticos vs Dmitry Kudryashov
If you like Knock Outs and you love power punchers, this World Boxing Super Series fight between Yunier Dorticos and Dmitry Kudryashov should be right up your alley.

Knock Outs have been a feature of two fighters known as the 'KO Doctor' and the 'Russian Hammer' and the two fighters have had forty-three combined fights and forty-two of them have ended with someone being sparked out.

Anything less would be a disappointment for the fans who are eagerly awaiting this one to be brutally honest.

I don't think that will be the case and I would be surprised if we need more than eight of the twelve Rounds scheduled. Dmitry Kudryashov missing the weight before making it on a second attempt is a concern, while Yunier Dorticos has the amateur experience to stay away from any danger before perhaps taking control of this one.

That has to be why he is favoured to win the fight and I can't argue with that.

However, the 'Russian Hammer' has the equaliser in his fists and his fights have not tended to last too long and that may be the case here. I think Kudryashov is dangerous early but I do wonder if Dorticos can steer out of trouble in the early Rounds with the superior boxing skills and perhaps wear down his opponent.

That is the feeling I get from this fight and he may just see a tired Kudryashov run into some trouble in the later stages of this fight. Dorticos is someone who can get things done early, but he has gone ten Rounds in two of his last four fights and I think that will aid him in a fight where he may not want to engage early on against a dangerous opponent.

One of those fights was ended in the Tenth Round with a stoppage which shows Dorticos can carry power and I will look for a second half stoppage for the Cuban in what could be a fantastic fight to watch.

MY PICKS: Joseph Parker by Decision/Technical Decision @ 4.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Jorge Linares to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Yunier Dorticos to Win Between 7-12 @ 9.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Friday, 22 September 2017

Weekend Football Picks 2017 (September 23-25)

All of the top managers in the Premier League have been speaking about the final week of fixtures before the next international break and finding the right balance to keep their players fresh for the months ahead.

September has been a loaded month, but looking ahead to December shows how difficult it can be for managers to make the changes but continue to produce the wins.

That's ahead though and the focus for all of the top teams in the Premier League and around the top European Leagues is finding a way to produce three wins over the next eight days to ensure happy faces going into the international break. It is the time of the season when things begin to take shape in the Leagues with at least six League games played in all of the top European Leagues and this is not the time when teams want to get too far behind the leaders.

The next week is important for the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal to just keep in touch with the other three clubs that made up the top six last season especially for the former two clubs. They have difficult looking October fixtures coming up which means falling behind now puts the pressure on Liverpool and Spurs to win bigger games next month or risk being out of the title race by Christmas.

It is the pressure these clubs and managers are dealing with all the time with a busy European schedule set during the week as Match Day 2 of the Group Stages of both Champions League and Europa League are played.


After the fixtures next weekend I am looking to write down a few thoughts about the start to the season for Manchester United and have that ready to go before the World Cup Qualifiers begin the following Thursday. It has been an exciting time for the United fans around the world, but this next week is critical to set them up for what is a rough set of games to come between the next two international breaks.

That is for another day and something to look out for in around ten days time.


Last weekend was the worst one I have had in the 2017/18 season so far as almost nothing went the way I thought it might. Players missing easy chances didn't help my cause, but it was a frustrating weekend and means the remaining three rounds of games this month are important to get things turned back around.

Hopefully this weekend there will be more luck behind me than there was last weekend.


West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The opening game of this Premier League weekend is always a big fixture as West Ham United host Tottenham Hotspur in what is a rivalry game. There is no love lost between the fans and the players at West Ham United certainly seem like they raise their game when they see Tottenham Hotspur come to town.

Arguably the best result that West Ham United have had in their new London Stadium came towards the end of last season when they beat Tottenham Hotspur 1-0 here. This has been a fixture The Hammers have enjoyed in recent years with 3 wins from the last 4 games where they have hosted Spurs and they were also unfortunate to lose 3-2 at White Hart Lane last season.

Tottenham Hotspur have talent in the final third and they have won both away Premier League games they have played this season. Both have come comfortably at Newcastle United and Everton, but this West Ham United team have showed better form in recent games with just a single loss from their last 5 in all competitions.

My worry for West Ham United has to be the heavy losses they suffered to Arsenal, Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool in home games in the League last season. They were more competitive in a loss to Chelsea, and did beat Tottenham Hotspur, but this is also a side that have been beaten easily at Manchester United and Newcastle United this season.

However I do think West Ham United 'get up' for the visit of Tottenham Hotspur and I expect they can cause problems. As well as Tottenham Hotspur have played away from home in the League, this has proven to be a tough fixture for them, although Spurs have to be respected for winning at least 9 of 19 away League games in each of the last three seasons.

Tottenham Hotspur should win here, but they look very short when you consider how they have played against West Ham United in recent years. The improved performances of the home team in the last couple of weeks has to give them confidence though and I think West Ham United can keep this competitive.

West Ham United have defended a little better with the new formation being employed and that may make up for the loss of James Collins. Backing The Hammers with the start on the Asian Handicap in a game where they have every chance of earning the result and also returns stake with a narrow loss is the way to go in this one in my opinion.


Burnley v Huddersfield Town Pick: This has to be the kind of fixture that both Burnley and Huddersfield Town have circled as one where they can't afford to drop points. For Sean Dyche it is perhaps one that Burnley would have targeted for the maximum points and it should be an interesting afternoon in the North West this weekend.

In the last few months it has been more difficult for Burnley to produce the wins at Turf Moor as shown by 2 wins from their last 10 here in all competitions. They were beaten on penalties by Leeds United during the week and Burnley were perhaps a little fortunate when beating Crystal Palace here a couple of weeks ago.

However they are facing Huddersfield Town who have just hit a wall over the last month with losses at West Ham United and Crystal Palace and this has to be seen as a big chance for Burnley to move a quarter of the way to the 40 point mark they are targeting.

Huddersfield Town were really poor when beaten at West Ham United recently and the fast start they have made is important considering the fixtures upcoming for The Terriers. David Wagner will be expecting a better performance in this away game, but Huddersfield Town have lost 3 of their last 4 visits to Turf Moor and I am leaning towards Burnley earning the victory.

It is hard to go in on Burnley for more than the minimum unit simply because they have not been firing on all cylinders at Turf Moor in recent months. Giving up the same chances they did against Crystal Palace two weeks ago will give Huddersfield Town every chance for another away success in the Premier League, but I think Sean Dyche can motivate his squad to a victory.

This feels like it will be a tight game, but I will back Burnley to find the way to the three points although I will keep the stakes down to a minimum.


Manchester City v Crystal Palace Pick: Roy Hodgson has been given a difficult task to turn around Crystal Palace's form and ensure they are in a position to survive in the Premier League for another season. The 0-1 home loss to Southampton is a blow when you think they are heading to Manchester City and Manchester United before the home game with Chelsea.

Crystal Palace did beat Huddersfield Town in the League Cup during the week but Hodgson will be looking to make the side tougher to beat in the coming weeks.

That is going to be put to the test by a rampant Manchester City side who have won 5 in a row in all competitions and have been scoring goals for fun in that time. They have already scored seventeen goals in 4 games in September and Manchester City will be confident they can create the chances in this one to add to that tally.

Kevin De Bruyne, David Silva and Sergio Aguero were all rested during the week when Manchester City beat West Brom 1-2 in the League Cup Third Round, and those players have all been in very good form throughout this month. With Aguero and Gabriel Jesus in the final third, Manchester City will certainly feel they can continue scoring at the rate they have been.

It might not be easy against a Crystal Palace team who have lost their last 3 of their last 4 Premier League games by the same 1-0 scoreline. That includes in back to back away games at Liverpool and Burnley, but Crystal Palace are still working on their defensive shapes under Hodgson which could be a problem at the Etihad Stadium.

This has not been a great ground for Crystal Palace to visit having conceded seventeen goals in their last 4 visits to the Etihad Stadium. They have lost all of those games by at least a three goal margin and Manchester City were 5-0 winners over Crystal Palace last season.

Manchester City only won 2 of their 19 home games in the Premier League by three or more goals last season, but they have done that once already in the 2017/18 season. That is a concern with the Asian Handicap that has been set in this game, but Manchester City have been in very good form and have enjoyed playing Crystal Palace at home.

An early goal will be important for Manchester City to just open the game up in this one, but this is a team that has options off the bench and look very confident. There is plenty of momentum behind Manchester City at the moment and I think they will prove too strong for Crystal Palace and record a comfortable win on the day.

Crystal Palace have suffered a couple of narrow losses away from home in the League this season, but this is as difficult challenge as you can face in the Premier League at this moment. All of the pressure is likely to come from Manchester City and that should see them create enough chances for the likes of Aguero and Jesus to make hay and produce another big win for the club.


Southampton v Manchester United Pick: As much as most Manchester United fans have to be excited about the start made to the new season, realistic fans have to accept that the fixture list has been kind enough to take advantage of. That was an issue for them last season though so there has been improvements made, but Jose Mourinho knows the importance of continuing to make hay while the sun is shining before bigger tests ahead in October and November.

This is a fixture that looks difficult on paper with the inconsistent Southampton team capable of raising their game to challenge the best teams in the Division. They showed that with a really strong performance in the League Cup Final before ultimately coming up short against Manchester United, but hosting this team has been more difficult for them.

Manchester United had won 7 of 8 visits to Southampton before the goalless draw here at the end of last season. With the home team expected to be a little more positive going forward at St Mary's, Manchester United have found the counter attack to be very effective in visits to this ground and that has seen them earn the edge which has led to wins more often than not in recent years.

The current squad has proven they can be very good on the counter attack and defensively Manchester United have looked strong barring a couple of really loose mistakes at Stoke City. Mourinho has to think his side are capable of at least restricting the chances that goal-shy Southampton are able to create here and doing that will give Manchester United every chance of earning a vital three points.

The lack of goals may have contributed to Southampton losing to 4 of the top 5 at home last season. In fact Southampton scored just 1 goal against the top 6 at St Mary's last season and that has to have been a real factor in the prices for Manchester United to win here.

Mourinho's Manchester United beat 10 of the 14 teams that finished below them in the Premier League table when playing them away from home. I will look for Manchester United to earn the three points here and look to use this as the beginning of a strong final week in September.


Stoke City v Chelsea Pick: The results for Stoke City have been decent at home when you think they have beaten Arsenal and drawn with Manchester United, but I don't think they were that impressive in either game. In fact I am convinced Manchester United would have won here if they had held onto the 1-2 lead for a few more minutes than they did, while Arsenal created plenty of chances throughout the ninety minutes but somehow failed to score.

Respect has to be given to Stoke City for the fact they have scored in both games though which will make them difficult to beat. This weekend they will fancy their chances against a Chelsea defence that is missing David Luiz, but Kurt Zouma will be absent for Stoke City which should give Chelsea their opportunities too.

The layers are very much behind a Chelsea win and I do favour The Blues even if I think it may be a tighter game than the oddsmakers do. This is a Chelsea side that have not been as watertight at the back as they were for large stretches of last season and they have not had a chance to play a settled back three which may have contributed to that.

That is the case again this weekend and Chelsea have conceded in both away games at Tottenham Hotspur and Leicester City played in the Premier League. Stoke City have shown they can cause problems for the big clubs when hosting them as Tottenham Hotspur were the only club in the top six that came away with a clean sheet from this ground.

Stoke City have continued that against Arsenal and Manchester United this season, but Chelsea should also have plenty of moments with a returning Eden Hazard expected to be restored to the starting line up.

Both teams may get on the scoreboard on this one, but I am still leaning towards a Chelsea win. There have been plenty of chances created in both Stoke City home games this season and Chelsea have been involved in two high-scoring away games in the League too.

Recent games between Stoke City and Chelsea have not featured a lot of goals at this ground, but last season there were three shared out and I can see that being the case again here. With both teams likely to try and get on the front foot and a couple of key players missing in defence, one on each side, and I think there will be enough opportunity in front of goals to back at least three goals to be shared out.


Swansea City v Watford Pick: There have been plenty of inconsistent results in the Premier League this season which may have something to do with the fact that so many teams that are expected to battle against relegation are much more evenly balanced than in previous seasons.

Swansea City highlight the inconsistencies of teams lower down the League table and they do look tough to back as the favourites in this one. The side have been decent at the Liberty Stadium under Paul Clement which may account for the price this week, although the 0-1 loss to Newcastle United at a similar price a couple of weeks ago has to be a concern.

Another factor may be the 0-6 home defeat suffered by Watford against Manchester City last weekend. That was a stunning result, but Marco Silva will know there are many teams who will take a battering from Manchester City in the form they have been in over the last coupe of weeks.

Silva's Watford team have been playing pretty well in the Premier League prior to that defeat to Manchester City. Wins at Bournemouth and Southampton came behind two very strong away performances from Watford and I do think they are a dangerous team who could perhaps be more effective away from home against teams of a similar level.

Watford also have a decent record against Swansea City in recent fixtures having won 2 and drawn 2 of the last 5 against them. They have scored goals away from home which makes them a threat in this one when you consider that Swansea City are still trying to find their feet in the final third without Gylfi Sigurdsson and Fernando Llorente.

With that in mind I think Watford can be backed with the start on Saturday at the Liberty Stadium. Some may take the draw when you think 3 of the last 4 have ended in stalemate, but Watford's recent away performances make them the more likely winner in my opinion so backing The Hornets on the Asian Handicap is the pick from this fixture.


Leicester City v Liverpool Pick: Anyone who watched the first half of the Leicester City League Cup victory over Liverpool will have been wondering how the game turned as much as it did in the second half. If Liverpool had been leading by two or three goals at half time it may have reflected the first half best, but they were not as effective in the second half.

Much of that will be down to the front three missing Roberto Firmino, Mohammed Salah and Philippe Coutinho, but all three should be involved on Saturday evening. Sadio Mane remains suspended, but a much more familiar Liverpool starting line up will be hoping to make more of the chances they are likely to create here.

Craig Shakespeare could have a better game plan in place having seen the Liverpool style of play first hand on Tuesday, but the majority of the possession is likely to come with Liverpool. A returning Jamie Vardy may give Leicester City a better out ball when they are under pressure, while the likes of Danny Simpson, Harry Maguire and Christian Fuchs should give Leicester City a better base from which to defend.

This has been a fixture the Leicester City players have enjoyed with 3 straight wins over Liverpool at the King Power Stadium, but they did ride their luck during the week. It is much harder to know how they can do that against Liverpool's first choice front three with the quality they clearly have in the final third, even if Mane remains a huge miss for The Reds.

Ultimately the Liverpool defence is going to hold them back from really achieving the kind of goals that the fans were hoping for under Klopp. That isn't to say he won't get that fixed with the players targeted, but whether Klopp gets the time depends on how well Liverpool perform this season with anything other than a top four finish likely not to be good enough without a Champions League trophy to show off.

Games like this one is where you feel Liverpool can be undone by the defence with the pace that Leicester City have as well as their ability from set pieces. However I am surprised that they are still the same price as they were to win here during the week in the League Cup after what was a really good performance before Coutinho was taken off.

Leicester City have been very good at home over the last couple of years with 22 Premier League wins in 40 games here. That coupled with the Leicester City home record against Liverpool has to be respected, but Leicester City were beaten by Chelsea recently and I think Liverpool have the talent to turn around their result from the League Cup tie during the week.

You have to think Liverpool can't miss the same sort of chances they created on Tuesday with the likes of Coutinho, Salah and Firmino back in the line up and I think they can win here. It won't be easy covering for the defensive mistakes they are likely to make, but Liverpool should be better prepared for what they face here and can make the almost odds against quote pay off.


Arsenal v West Brom Pick: August finished really badly for Arsenal but September has proved to be a much better month for Arsene Wenger and he will be keen to end it on a high. Games against West Brom and Brighton before the next international break does give Arsenal every chance of going into that with a lot of momentum behind them and the chance to close on the leading teams.

No one can take this match against West Brom for granted when you think how well The Baggies have started the season. They will also know that Tony Pulis is going to set up with a strong defensive base from which they will look to frustrate the hosts and so Arsenal have to take the chances that come their way.

This has been a fixture that Arsenal have enjoyed with 6 straight wins over West Brom at the Emirates Stadium. They also have a lot less issues facing Tony Pulis guided teams when they are hosting them rather than when they are visiting them and I think that is a real factor in this one.

Arsenal will also have the confidence of having won their last 9 games at the Emirates Stadium in all competitions including all 4 played this season. The Gunners have been firing much better here than on their travels and I do think they are going to be too good for West Brom on the night.

An early goal will be important for Arsenal to try and get West Brom out from the defensive shape they will be looking to employ for the first hour of this fixture. If Arsenal can do that, they should be comfortable on the night, and they have been playing with more confidence at the Emirates Stadium to think they will do that.

West Brom can make life difficult for teams, but I will look for Arsenal to win this one by a couple of goals on the night to keep the momentum of their performances in September behind them.


Derby County v Birmingham City Pick: Heading towards Christmas 2016, Birmingham City looked to be in a position to challenge for the top six places in the Championship under Gary Rowett after coming close the previous May to a Play Off spot. At that point ownership decided to sack Rowett and things have fallen off a cliff since then for Birmingham City.

They barely escaped relegation last season and now they have sacked Harry Redknapp after losing 6 in a row under his watch to drop back into the bottom three.

There are likely to be some envious eyes glanced from the away supporters into the home dugout even if Rowett has not made a great start to the season with Derby County. However he has been respected for the job he did at St Andrews, although Rowett's motivation to get one over on his former club has to be high.

Derby County have been much better at home than away from home so far this season with back to back wins here coming by comfortable margins. Facing a team who have lost all 4 away games should give Derby County the edge, although the change in manager may see a renewed effort from the players which can make Birmingham City dangerous.

In saying that, Derby County should still be too good for a side lacking some confidence even if the first goal is going to be critical for them. The Rams aren't exactly filled with confidence themselves so falling behind would be a tough situation to overcome but I think they have performed better at the iPro Stadium and can win this one.

Gary Rowett can motivate his players to do that and I will back them to win this fixture.


Preston North End v Millwall Pick: There is much to like about the start of the new season for both Preston North End and Millwall and that should mean two positive teams come into the latest League fixture they are going to play.

The difference may be the venue with Preston North End playing well at Deepdale and Millwall being a little more inconsistent when they have gone on their travels this season.

In saying that, I am not anticipating an easy game for either team when goals may come at a premium and that does give Millwall the chance to earn a result here. If they defend well they can trouble Preston North End who don't have a lot of goals in the side despite scoring three times in each of their last couple of fixtures.

Millwall just haven't been easy to dismiss when they have been playing in recent weeks, and they should have won at Queens Park Rangers. They were reduced to ten men before conceding more than one goal for the first time in an away game this season which shows how tough this could be for Preston North End.

However I do think the home team have played well enough to earn the victory at Deepdale. The respect for Millwall means I will recommend a minimum unit on this one, but I do think Preston North End at odds against can be chanced to earn another three points at home as they keep track with the leaders in the Division.


Sheffield Wednesday v Sheffield United Pick: After coming close to promotion in each of the last couple of years, Sheffield Wednesday fans may feel this is a year in which they have to get back into the Premier League or instead make a change in the manager's office.

That is a story for another day, the focus this weekend is all about getting the better of Sheffield United in the first Steel City derby in six seasons and it looks like it could be a good day of football.

Both Sheffield clubs have made a decent start to the new Championship season so searching for confidence shouldn't be an issue. Home form could be the key to the outcome in this one, but Sheffield Wednesday can't take anything for granted against a Sheffield United team who have won their last couple of away games in the League.

Goals have been an issue for Sheffield Wednesday in recent seasons, but they have looked decent enough in that department to open this campaign, especially at Hillsborough. The 2 away Sheffield United wins have also come against teams that are likely to be struggling this season and this is a much different sort of test for them against Sheffield Wednesday who should be challenging for promotion.

Derby games can be difficult to judge with the emotion and tension of the fixtures leading to different reactions from the players. Both teams should be highly motivated for this one, but I am leaning towards Sheffield Wednesday to create the chances to earn the three points in this one.

It's yet another Championship game that won't come easily for the victor, but I will back Sheffield Wednesday to come through for the three points at odds against.

MY PICKS: West Ham United + 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley @ 2.15 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 1.75 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Stoke City-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Derby County @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Preston North End @ 2.05 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Sheffield Wednesday @ 2.15 Sporting Bet (2 Units)