Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (September 26-28)

Two weeks of the Premier League might be in the books, but it has been a much more intense period than the players and the clubs are used to in normal circumstances.

Injuries and players still trying to improve their match fitness is where the majority of clubs feel they are at this stage of the season, although they only have another eight days before the UEFA Nations League returns.

You can't win the title at this stage, but teams won't want to be dropping too many points through the first four weeks of the new season and that does put pressure on the managers to get things right. The same can be said for Fantasy Football managers and I know how quickly things can change after a miserable GW2 following a reasonable start to the campaign.

I will have more thoughts about GW3 below following my thoughts on the Premier League games to be played from Saturday through to Monday.

Brighton v Manchester United Pick: Early goals were key for Manchester United in their 0-3 win at the Amex Stadium in June as they scored twice within the first half an hour and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be hoping for a much more intense start to this fixture than their opening Premier League fixture of the 2020/21 season.

Previous visits to this part of the south coast had been difficult for Manchester United who lost both of their previous games at the Amex Stadium.

Those came against Chris Hughton's Brighton who have tended to be a little more disciplined defensively compared with Graham Potter's team. That isn't to say that Brighton are not enjoying success under Potter, but it also means they are perhaps a little easier to play against for the top clubs who will know that their hosts won't sit deep, but instead will come out and try and get on top of them.

Chelsea punished Brighton 1-3 here, but it was only the extra quality in attacking areas which made them more clinical in a competitive game. The home team missed a big chance to equalise for a second time that day which may have changed the course of the fixture, but you can't ignore the fact that Brighton have lost to Manchester United, Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea at home since June.

The home team will create chances and get forward, but they do leave spaces to exploit at the back and this Manchester United team should be capable of doing that. I don't buy the excuses for the performance last week and I would expect the manager to pick a stronger team than he did for the defeat to Crystal Palace and that pace in the forward areas have benefit from the spaces Manchester United tend to get away from home.

They have created chances in their recent away games and Manchester United have won 4 on a row on their travels in the Premier League and scored at least twice in each. Three of those wins came against clubs that finished in the bottom seven and I do think Manchester United will appreciate the way Brighton will approach this game.

Brighton have created chances of their own in defeats to Liverpool and Chelsea and they might have deserved more in those games. However, they have been porous at the back and I will look for Manchester United to get their Premier League campaign off and running with a win in a game that features at least two goals.

Crystal Palace v Everton Pick: There are only five teams who have won both Premier League games played so far this season and two of them are meeting on Saturday in a big game at Selhurst Park. Both Crystal Palace and Everton would love to keep the momentum going before the international break which will begin at the end of next weekend and I think this could be a better game than the layers think it may be.

The first point I have to highlight is that the last two games between these clubs at Selhurst Park have both ended goalless so there is every chance they cancel each other out again.

We have yet to see a draw in the Premier League, but 5 of the last 7 between Crystal Palace and Everton on this ground have ended that way.

It definitely makes Everton feel plenty short to win here at close to odds on and I do think Crystal Palace will be very confident having deservedly beaten both Southampton and Manchester United. Both of those clubs ended last season in much better form than Everton, while the latter benefited from a first half sending off last weekend in their 5-2 success over West Brom.

Everton are playing well though and they are creating chances, but Jordan Pickford feels like a liability in goal and that will always give opponents a chance... Just ask Fleetwood Town who took advantage of a couple of mistakes to give Everton a scare in the League Cup Third Round during the week.

Crystal Palace were short of goals last season, but Roy Hodgson has moved to try and fix that problem and his team have looked very dangerous going forward in both League games played. Injuries at the back have seen Southampton and Manchester United create chances too, but Hodgson may feel the best form of defence is attack in their current state.

With that in mind I do think Crystal Palace will get forward and look to challenge an Everton backline which has conceded twice in each of their two games played over the last week. Roy Hodgson's team have been resting and preparing for this game and I do think they have enough in the final third to get on the scoreboard in this one despite the poor recent history of goals in this fixture.

The last two may have finished goalless between the clubs at Selhurst Park, but Everton have not been short of chances and their extra quality signed in the summer will feel they can end the barren sequence. Those players have already had an impact on Everton in the first two Premier League games of this season and I do think both teams can find the net in this one with the way their first two fixtures have developed.

Players like Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Wilfried Zaha are in form and scoring goals and I think that will help here.

This may be the first drawn game in the Premier League if recent history between the clubs is anything to go by, but this time I would expect both teams to hit the back of the net.

West Brom v Chelsea Pick: There is a real optimism about the team Chelsea are building having spent as much on young, quality players as they did in the off-season. That expenditure has raised expectations and it was perhaps no surprise to hear some fans being critical of Frank Lampard for the approach and the eventual result against Liverpool last Sunday at Stamford Bridge.

I was a little surprised by the approach myself, but for long periods it looked like Chelsea had got things right before Andreas Christensen was sent off moments before half time. Ultimately that changed the entire game and Chelsea were seen off, while Lampard will also be better judged when he has his first team healthy as possible.

Key players are going to miss out again this weekend, but Chelsea's level of opponent is not as high as it was last week. During the past few days they have hammered Barnsley in the League Cup to show what they can do when they get going and Chelsea also have a win at Brighton under their belt.

Now they are facing a West Brom team that arguably were fortunate to earn promotion to the Premier League in July and who have looked porous at the back. They have conceded eight goals in their two Premier League games, although there are factors that can't be ignored (two penalties against Leicester City and a first half sending off at Everton).

Even then you do have to worry about the defensive approach of this team and I do think Chelsea are more than capable of exposing the West Brom backline. They showed their attacking qualities in winning at Brighton and I do think The Baggies have shown a much greater vulnerability in their opening games.

Leicester City ended up with a comfortable win at The Hawthorns on the opening weekend and ultimately I think Chelsea will be able to do the same. Kai Havertz scored three times during the week, but it may be the turn of Timo Werner to announce himself in England and I think the visitors cover the Asian Handicap in the victory.

Burnley v Southampton Pick: There was a real sense of expectation around Southampton both in reality and in fantasy terms ahead of the new season, but it has been a very poor start for the team. Ralph Hasenhuttl might be bemoaning a bit of poor luck/finishing, but Southampton have to be a lot better defensively if they are not going to be dragged into another relegation scrap this season.

It was some really shoddy work being done by the defenders last week in the 2-5 home loss to Tottenham Hotspur, but Southampton exited the League Cup in the Second Round and that means they have had a week to prepare for this fixture.

The manager will have wanted to make use of all that time having seen his team lose twice to Burnley last season in the Premier League. Burnley did not create a lot of chances to produce five goals, but this has become a feature of Sean Dyche's teams and I do think the performances over the last week shows they are a club that will be safe in the Premier League despite the rumours about the manager not being happy at Turf Moor.

Burnley scored twice at Leicester City last weekend, albeit in a losing effort, and they managed two more goals at Millwall in the League Cup to progress to the Fourth Round. I would be a little concerned by the fact that Burnley have not scored more than a single goal in any of their last 6 games at Turf Moor in all competitions, especially as they have only earned a single clean sheet in that time, and perhaps that is why they are the underdog here.

I can't be having Burnley as an underdog against an opponent that has lost 3 games in a row, but I also think this could be a game that continues the early trend in the Premier League over the first two weeks of the season. That trend has seen a huge amount of goals being scored in the English top flight as teams perhaps struggle with their fitness levels after a shortened pre-season than usual.

Both games between these clubs produced three goals last season and the game at Turf Moor saw both create chances. Neither have defended as well as they would have liked to open the season, but I think the managers will be impressed with some of the attacking elements to their game and that may lead to a higher than expected amount of goals.

Sheffield United v Leeds United Pick: The Yorkshire derby games between Sheffield United and Leeds United were intense and competitive two seasons ago as both chased down a spot in the Premier League.

Both teams earned narrow away wins, but chances were created by both sides and that will encourage Chris Wilder and Marcelo Bielsa. Since their last meeting both clubs have now returned to English Football's top flight and there will be a real belief that both have enough to survive at this level.

The opening games have been more positive for Leeds United than Sheffield United, but Chris Wilder will not be panicking just yet. His Sheffield United team may have lost 5 League games in a row, but The Blades have remained competitive and arguably deserved more from their 1-0 defeat at Villa Park on Monday night.

They were not helped by the relatively early sending off, while Dean Henderson's return to Manchester United is also a blow to the club. A lack of goals will be a concern for Chris Wilder considering Sheffield United have scored once in their last 5 Premier League games and only managed 39 in total through the entirety of the 2019/20 season.

Only four clubs managed fewer goals than The Blades, but they should find spaces to exploit against Leeds United who have conceded seven times in two League games back in the top flight. That will encourage Sheffield United who have created chances and I do think they can pose problems which could make a mockery of the fact that Chris Wilder's men are the home underdog.

You have to respect Leeds United under their current manager though and the week to prepare is something Marcelo Bielsa will have made full use of. Having Pablo Hernandez sidelined is a blow, but Leeds United have shown they have pace and ability in the final third which will give them a chance against any opponent they face in the Premier League.

Defensively there are holes and I do think at the moment Leeds United feel they need to outscore teams to earn points. It should encourage an open and entertaining fixture on Sunday and I think the two teams may surprise the layers by combining for at least three goals.

My very narrow lean is with Sheffield United, but having Henderson return to Manchester United and losing John Egan to suspension tempers the enthusiasm for the home team. We saw The Blades look vulnerable when the key players were not in action for them at the end of last season and I think both teams are likely to hit the net in this one.

Sheffield United and Leeds United should both be pushing for the three points though and I think that will help produce a fixture with at least three goals scored.

Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United Pick: This is an important game for both Jose Mourinho and Steve Bruce as they look to manage their teams through the very busy first month of the 2020/21 season.

Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United have both earned 3 points from a possible 6 in the Premier League and both enjoyed Cup wins during the week. There is another similarity in that both clubs have lost their first home Premier League game of the season, and they have won more away games than at home so far.

That might encourage Newcastle United who beat Tottenham Hotspur 0-1 here last season and who have won 4 of their last 6 visits to a fixture hosted by Spurs. Steve Bruce is likely going to set his deep up to be very cautious defensively and make Tottenham Hotspur work for everything they get, and he certainly won't want to make the same start as last Sunday when his team were 0-2 down to Brighton inside seven minutes.

A strong win in the League Cup and a very winnable tie coming up should give Newcastle United confidence they can put a strong run together before the next international break. However, the defensive injuries are adding up and Newcastle United have allowed their two Premier League opponents to create some very good chances.

Now they have to deal with a Tottenham Hotspur team who were playing in Macedonia on Thursday evening and who are coming off 3 pretty good wins. The travelling is a concern, but Jose Mourinho was able to rotate his squad to some extent and that should mean the players are fresh enough to compete in this Premier League fixture.

Tottenham Hotspur have been creating chances in all of their games played so far this season and they have players like Heung-Min Son and Harry Kane in fine form in front of goal. I think that will give them the edge against something of a bogey team in North London, especially as Tottenham Hotspur won 1-3 at St James' Park in July.

I do think Steve Bruce's men can have an impact on the match too, but my feeling is that Spurs will have a little too much against a team missing their starting goalkeeper. The quick turnaround from the Europa League Qualifier is not ideal for Tottenham Hotspur, but they can edge to the victory on Sunday.

Manchester City v Leicester City Pick: This is one of the big Premier League games of the weekend as Manchester City and Leicester City look to show they are ready for the long and tough schedule of fixtures that are in front of them over the next several months.

Both clubs finished in the top five last season and there will be some feeling in the Midlands that Leicester City can use the experiences of last season to take another step forward this time around. Joining the title race might be too much for Leicester City, but the early season form is encouraging and Brendan Rodgers will want his team to show the rest of the Premier League what they are about in this one.

They were beaten in both Premier League games against Manchester City last season though and Pep Guardiola's men have come out this season with a pretty strong performance in seeing off Wolves at Molineux.

While more signings may yet be made, Manchester City know they have to be a lot more consistent this season if they are going to close the gap to Champions Liverpool. The win at Wolves shows the team are going to be up for the fight and I do think they will largely enjoy playing Leicester City even though the latter are going to be dangerous on the counter attack.

Manchester City did create a lot of chances in their two wins over Leicester City in the Premier League last season and they look like they will have too much for them again. As good as Leicester City have looked in their opening two games, they are now playing a team that is much stronger than West Brom or Burnley.

The home team should be able to come through with a relatively straight forward win by the time this one is in the books.

West Ham United v Wolves Pick: There will be some serious testing done at West Ham United in the coming days after two players and David Moyes came back with positive tests for Coronavirus ahead of their League Cup tie played last Tuesday.

A severe outbreak could see this live game on Sunday cancelled and postponed for another time, but for now the players will be focusing on their training and looking for a first League point of the 2020/21 season.

The Hammers will actually be looking for their first League points against Wolves since the latter returned to the top flight. In fact West Ham United have not scored in any of the 4 games played against Wolves in that time and it won't be easy to change that here.

However West Ham United have to be encouraged by the away performance at Arsenal last Saturday and they are a team that can create chances. They will be going up against a Wolves team that are transitioning the squad a little bit, but who continue to perform at a high level which makes them very difficult to beat.

In saying that, Wolves have not been watertight at the back and that should give West Ham United a chance to at least finally break their streak of failing to score against this opponent. They are a threat from set pieces and there is some pace in the West Ham United ranks, although defensively they remain vulnerable.

Wolves have shown they are certainly capable going forward and I would be surprised if they are not able to score here. They are favourites deservedly, but I do think West Ham United can finally break down the Wolves door for the first time since January 2016 and so expecting both teams to hit the net looks to the be the most likely outcome here.

Fulham v Aston Villa Pick: Two seasons ago Fulham had returned to the Premier League and made huge investments in the transfer market during the off-season to prepare for the top flight.

Things went horribly wrong for them and they were going to be inevitably relegated when Scott Parker was appointed as caretaker manager. He impressed enough to be given the permanent role and has helped Fulham earn promotion back to the Premier League at the firs time of asking, but a shortened off-season and not having the same policy as two years ago has made them favourites for relegation along with West Brom.

The early indications are not good as Fulham have looked miserable defensively, but they deserved more than they got at Leeds United last weekend. Scott Parker will be looking to build on that performance, although Fulham only won 6 of 19 home games at this level two seasons ago and look like one of the weaker teams in the Division.

In saying all that, I am not sure what Aston Villa have done to deserve favouritism in an away game in the Premier League. They were fortunate to eventually beat Sheffield United last week despite their visitors playing with ten men for the majority of the fixture, and I am not going to place a lot of stock in their two League Cup wins at Burton Albion and Bristol City.

Aston Villa have made some decent signings, but this is a team who won just 2 of 19 away games in the Premier League last season and were beaten at Bournemouth and Watford, two teams who eventually were relegated to the Championship.

Since the three month break, Aston Villa have played better all around, but there is still a feeling that they don't score enough goals. They have purchased players to improve on the numbers, but I don't think Aston Villa are deserving of being away favourites at any ground in the Premier League.

Fulham have a strong record at home against this opponent and there was enough to like from them in their 4-3 loss at Leeds United. Defensively there will need to be improvements, but a fixture like this one might not see Fulham fully exploited anyway and being able to get behind the home underdog looks like the right approach.

The draw could be a real player in this one, but I would be surprised if Fulham were to be beaten. A defeat and they might already want to plan on how to prepare for life back in the Championship before the fans are invited back into the Stadiums.

Liverpool v Arsenal Pick: These two teams will become familiar with one another over the coming days having already met at Wembley last month and having two games to come in the Premier League and the League Cup Fourth Round at Anfield.

There are likely to be differing line ups used for the League and League Cup fixtures, but that won't lessen the desire of the two managers to oversee two statement wins.

Arsenal are clearly a side progressing under Mikel Arteta and they have been clinical under the Spaniard, even if the defensive performances have perhaps not been as strong as some of the results have indicated.

Those defensive performances will be tested to the fullest by a Liverpool team that scored 52 Premier League goals at Anfield last season and have already produced four in the win over Leeds United. Their victory over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge underlines why so many believe Liverpool can defend the Premier League title and they were able to rest many of their key players in the 2-7 win at Lincoln City in the League Cup on Thursday.

Mikel Arteta will also restore some key players, and his team are well drilled and can cause problems with the pace they have on the counter attack. Their wins over Liverpool in the Premier League and Community Shield under Arteta will only increase the confidence at a ground where Arsenal have suffered some heavy losses in recent seasons.

I do think Arsenal will be able to get forward and test a Liverpool team that have conceded at least three times in their last 2 Premier League games here. However, I also think Liverpool are not going to be as wasteful in front of goal as they were when losing 2-1 at the Emirates Stadium in July.

On another day Liverpool would have won very comfortably with the level of performance produced and I think that may be the case at the end of this one. While I don't underestimate Arsenal in their current form, Liverpool are still considerably stronger and look to have the goals and the confidence to hurt a team that does give more chances than the overall numbers being conceded will suggest.

Liverpool have scored at least twice in 9 of their last 10 Premier League games at Anfield and I think they will get to that mark in a winning effort on Monday Night Football.

MY PICKS: Manchester United to Win & Over 1.5 Goals

Crystal Palace-Everton Both Teams to Score- YES

Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Burnley-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals

Sheffield United-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals

Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap

West Ham United-Wolves Both Teams to Score- YES

Fulham + 0.25 Asian Handicap

Liverpool & Over 1.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 3

GW2 was pretty brutal for a lot of people, but I have to be most disappointed with my late decision to bring in Marcus Rashford instead of Heung-Min Son.

It might not have changed the week into a really strong one, but it certainly would have made up for the fact that the majority of my starters offered nothing of significance.

In hindsight it looked an obvious miss, but I never would have expected Son to score four goals away from home while Rashford and Manchester United struggled as badly as they did.

After watching much of the Southampton collapse against Tottenham Hotspur I did really consider changing the plan and going with the early Wild Card... But instead of making a rash decision I stepped away, had a coffee and a spot of lunch and ultimately waited to see how the rest of the weekend would go.

It would be very easy to panic that some of my early differentials have not had the impact I would have wanted, but the underlying stats have given me enough belief to stick with the idea of not using the Wild Card this side of the next international break.

One decision I did want to make on Monday evening was removing Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and bring in Kevin De Bruyne and to avoid waiting for the Belgian to increase in price. Fortunately that did end up being a transfer made before that was the case, although the unfortunate part is that De Bruyne picked up a slight worry against Bournemouth in the League Cup and is potentially going to miss out.

I won't lie, I have been frustrated by Che Adams for a second season in a row as he continues to find himself at the end of glorious chances but for some reason is attempting to hit through goalkeepers rather than either side of him. He isn't the best finisher, but the overall performances should mean Adams continues to earn a start for Southampton who have fixtures that can still be taken advantage of.

My patience will be running thin though and I am looking for more consistency from the eleven being picked- my bottom line at the moment is I picked a squad I believed in through the first four GWs which included using my transfers and I am sticking with the plan despite the kick in the teeth I took last week.

Hopefully the restraint will be rewarded over the next three days.

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (September 26-28)

We are just days away from the second international break in the 2017/18 season, but there is plenty of football to come over the next six days.

It all begins with Match Day 2 in the Champions League and Europa League over the coming three days before the final round of domestic football before the final World Cup Qualifiers begin next Thursday.

The next few months are going to be very busy for all the teams in the top European Leagues and that makes trying to earn Qualification out of the Groups as quickly as possible the key for the clubs playing in the Champions League and Europa League.

That is exactly what the managers of the English clubs will be preaching over the next month as Match Day 2, Match Day 3 and Match Day 4 are completed before the November international break.


APOEL v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is a really big game for Tottenham Hotspur who would love to put another three points on the board before having to face Real Madrid twice and then visit Borussia Dortmund. The 3-1 home win over Dortmund has given Tottenham Hotspur a boost of confidence in this tough Group, but it would be for naught if they are not able to back that up in Nicosia.

That should not mean overlooking APOEL who have come through three Rounds to make the Group Stage and who have won 8 of 9 home European ties. That includes beating the likes of Olympiacos and Athletic Bilbao and it is clear that APOEL are much stronger at home than on their travels.

Temperatures in Cyprus can be surprising to visiting teams and that has to be a concern for Tottenham Hotspur, although they may be visiting APOEL at the right time.

APOEL have started poorly domestically in the 2017/18 season and they are facing a Tottenham Hotspur team who have won 5 straight away games and have scored plenty of goals in that time. Losing Jan Vertonghen and Dele Alli to suspensions is a blow for Tottenham Hotspur, but they still head to Cyprus looking the more confident team having scored three times at West Ham United over the weekend.

This is still going to be a tough game for Tottenham Hotspur, but I do think they will prove to be too good for APOEL who have to raise their game significantly if they are going to win this one. Losing 2 of 3 at home is not the kind of form that APOEL would have wanted to be in ahead of this one and I am going to back Tottenham Hotspur to hand APOEL a rare home European loss and do that while covering the Asian Handicap.


Besiktas v Leipzig Pick: This is the first season Leipzig are playing European Football and I have to say I am surprised they are favoured to win at a tough venue like Besiktas. The 1-1 home draw with Monaco shows there is a gap to bridge for Leipzig and I can't have them as favourites to win here.

Besiktas have been a strong team at home and have lost just 1 of 15 here in all competitions. They are also unbeaten in 9 home European ties and Besiktas have won 3 in a row which makes backing them with the start on the Asian Handicap look appealing.

This is also a Leipzig team who have lost 2 of their 3 away games in the Bundesliga this season and I think backing the home team with the start should at least return a portion as a win.


Manchester City v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: September has been a really good month for Manchester City with the goals flowing and the plaudits being handed out to Pep Guardiola's men, but they have to keep the momentum going as they get set to visit Stamford Bridge on Saturday.

Stopping Manchester City is going to be a really difficult task for Shakhtar Donetsk considering the goals the home side have been scoring. The layers don't want to take any chances either as they are asking Manchester City to win by another wide margin for the full pay out.

That could happen, but I do think Shakhtar Donetsk are a better side than people may expect as they showed by getting to the Europa League Quarter Final last season. They have experience in the Champions League and while not expecting to be a challenger to win this competition, they showed against Napoli that Shakhtar Donetsk won't be intimidated by the bigger names in the Group.

They did win plenty of away games at the lower level in the Europa League, but Shakhtar Donetsk have lost their last 4 away Champions League games they have played. That includes a loss at Young Boys last season and Manchester City should have enough to secure the three points.

Instead of looking for them to cover the Asian Handicap, Manchester City could be worth backing to win another game with a clean sheet, which has been an underrated feature of their performances this past month. While not being completely dominant at the back, Manchester City have enough possession to limit the chances that teams will create against them and I think they may just be a little too good for Shakhtar Donetsk on the day.

It might not be the flood of goals that have been featuring in recent Manchester City games, but Pep Guardiola's only concern will be getting up to 6 points ahead of the double header with Napoli and I think his team will do that. Backing them to win with a clean sheet is odds against and is worth a back here.


Monaco v Porto Pick: In 2004 this was the Champions League Final, but both Monaco and Porto look some way short of being able to go all the way this time around. Monaco have lost some key players over the last transfer window from the team that were in the Semi Final in the 2016/17 season, while Porto are not the powerhouse they were under Jose Mourinho.

The three points on offer is very important on Match Day 2 as both Monaco and Porto are looking for their first win in the Group Stage of the Champions League.

Monaco might have lost some key players, but they have been playing well enough at home domestically to think they can have the edge in this one. Porto are playing well too, but they have not been able to take that form into the Champions League where they have lost 2 of their last 4 away games in the competition and I think the home team can be backed at odds against in this one.

It will likely be a tight match that will come down to which team will be more clinical in front of goal, but I think Monaco can earn the edge at home.


Spartak Moscow v Liverpool Pick: This could be an important game for Spartak Moscow and Liverpool after draws on Match Day 1 with the winning team likely to feel pretty good about their chances of progressing to the Last 16. It does feel like the game could be more important to the hosts having dropped two points in Maribor earlier this month, but this is a big test for Spartak Moscow having been a little inconsistent throughout this new season.

They will always feel like they will get a chance against the Liverpool defence, but the worry for Spartak Moscow has to be in their own final third. This is the first time in the 2017/18 season that Jurgen Klopp can play all four of his attacking players as Sadio Mane returns from a suspension to join Philippe Coutinho, Mohammed Salah and Roberto Firmino.

All four could start on Tuesday and that will put Spartak Moscow under pressure considering they have conceded at least twice in 2 of their last 3 home games.

When Liverpool go forward they do look very dangerous and having Coutinho in the line up gives them a bit more creativity when things are tighter in the opponent's half of the field. I do think Liverpool will be the stronger team on the day, but you always have to consider how poor they can be defensively which should give Spartak Moscow their chances.

However Spartak Moscow could be missing Quincy Promes which would take away a big threat they have and I think Liverpool will take advantage. A long trip to Moscow is always difficult, but Liverpool should be experienced enough to deal with that having won 0-1 at Rubin Kazan in their last Europa League campaign.

I will look for Liverpool to earn the three points in this second Champions League game and I think they can win by a couple of goals on the day to cover the Asian Handicap set. Even a one goal win will earn a profitable return and I do expect Liverpool to win here.


Atletico Madrid v Chelsea Pick: This is the kind of Champions League fixture that you may expect to see much later in the competition, but Atletico Madrid and Chelsea have to face one another in the Group Stage this time around.

It could be a big game for the two teams who are battling Roma to find their way into the Last 16 and so caution might be the order of the day. That perhaps comes a little naturally to both Diego Simeone and Antonio Conte although both managers have players who can create the magic to win games.

A new Stadium makes it European debut on Wednesday when Atletico Madrid host Chelsea, but they have been strong at home in the Champions League with 9 wins from their last 11 home games in the competition. They are very tough to beat in front of their own fans, but you do have to wonder if the players will have some issues in their new environment.

That hasn't shown up in the League though as Atletico Madrid have won both games played in their new home.

Chelsea have been in fine form themselves, but this is a significant step up in level of opponent compared with games at Leicester City and Stoke City. It is a fixture from which a point would be appreciated and I think that is what Chelsea will be looking for and perhaps trying to stun Atletico Madrid on the counter attack.

Ultimately I don't think there will be much between the teams because Atletico Madrid are not really a team that will ever blow an opponent away. Chelsea defend really well with the three at the back, but they will be tested by the quality Atletico Madrid have and I think the home team at odds against is a big price that has to be backed.

The home record in the Champions League is the reason Atletico Madrid have come so close to winning the competition in recent years and I think they will do enough to find their way to the three points in this one.


CSKA Moscow v Manchester United Pick: Not many would have picked CSKA Moscow to win in Lisbon on Match Day 1 and that surprise result means two clubs with 3 points meet in this fixture. Manchester United were as comfortable as most predicted when seeing off Basel at Old Trafford but this is a tough looking away game for them.

However this is also the kind of fixture where Jose Mourinho knows exactly how to set up his side to earn the victory. I would expect Mourinho to make sure Manchester United are tough to beat with the belief that his team are going to be capable of creating some chances of their own to put themselves in a position to make it two wins from two in the Group Stage.

Last season Manchester United showed they can perform very solidly away from home in the Europa League after losses to Feyenoord and Fenerbahce. Following those early Group setbacks, Manchester United beat Zorya, Saint-Etienne and Celta Vigo without conceding a goal, and earned 1-1 draws in Rostov and Anderlecht too.

The game in Anderlecht looked to be the perfect away performance from Manchester United before a late goal was conceded and I think this is a squad of players who will head to Moscow with plenty of confidence. The Europa League success has given the players a shot in the arm and Manchester United have looked solid defensively this season which is likely to be the foundation for any success here.

CSKA Moscow have been playing well to get into the Champions League Group Stage, but they haven't been dominant at home and have found the step up to the European level a tough one to bridge. The win in Benfica may have improved CSKA Moscow's own confidence, but they were beaten 0-1 by Tottenham Hotspur in the Group Stage last season and I think Manchester United can match that.

It won't be easy and I do wonder if Jose Mourinho will break up the Phil Jones-Eric Bailly partnership that has been so solid for Manchester United this season. If they do start I think Manchester United can keep CSKA Moscow at arm's length and there is enough quality in the squad to find a breakthrough here.

September isn't a bad time to play in Moscow and I expect the playing surface to be one that Manchester United can get the ball down and try to dictate things. Backing Manchester United to be solid defensively and win here with a clean sheet looks a big price.

Winning away from home in European competition has not been something Manchester United have done too frequently in recent years, but their last 6 wins on their travels in the Champions League and Europa League have come with a clean sheet. I will back that to be the outcome of this one as Manchester United move into a strong position to try and win this Group as early as possible.


BATE Borisov v Arsenal Pick: This is easily the kind of fixture you could have seen in the Champions League in recent years, but BATE Borisov and Arsenal have to settle for a clash in the Europa League Group Stage this time around.

You would have to say that while Arsenal are going to be making changes, they should still be starting a strong enough team who can get the win here in Belarus. It won't be easy with how well BATE Borisov can play at home, especially when you consider they are unbeaten in 6 home European games and in the last Champions League Group Stage they did beat Roma and draw with Bayer Leverkusen.

However this is an Arsenal side who have looked better over the last few weeks and who should have a number of players on the fringes of the first team who will start here. They showed against FC Koln that those players will be enough in the early games in the Europa League and I think Arsenal will be able to create the chances to win here.

You can't always know what a manager will decide to do in this competition, but Arsene Wenger has players like Mesut Ozil, Theo Walcott and Olivier Giroud in the final third who should earn the start. Those players should be good enough to create chances against this BATE Borisov team and I would expect Arsenal to be in a position to win this game by a couple of goals.

BATE Borisov have shown it won't be easy here in recent years, but they have not played too many teams of the level of Arsenal and I will back the latter to cover the Asian Handicap in the victory.


Nice v Vitesse Pick: There would have been a lot of hope for Nice that they could find their way into the Champions League Group Stage this season, but they exited in the Qualifiers during what has been an inconsistent start to the campaign.

Things have looked to be improving of late during a 4 game unbeaten run, but Nice have struggled to find the right performances in their European games. 1 win from 5 home European ties since the beginning of last season is a big disappointment for Nice, but their 1-5 win at Zulte-Waregem will have given them a shot of confidence.

They should be too good for Vitesse despite the side coming in with an impressive 1-2 win at Ajax which is part of a good start to the new season.

However Vitesse are lacking experience in European football and that naivety may have been a reason they were beaten 2-3 by Lazio on Match Day 1. Playing away from home is another challenge for Vitesse and I will look for Nice to have a little too much for them in this on and will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Ostersund v Hertha Berlin Pick: There is clearly a difference in quality in the Swedish and German top flights and that is a big reason Hertha Berlin will be the favourites to win in Ostersund.

They are capable of doing that, but Hertha Berlin are not a team who have travelled very well in recent months with 10 losses from their last 15 away games in all competitions. Hertha Berlin did recently win a German Cup game at Hansa Rostock, but teams have underestimated the challenge of coming to Ostersund and that may see the favourites come unstuck here.

You have to respect Ostersund have only lost 1 of their last 15 home games in all competitions, but the majority of those have been in the Swedish domestic League. However they have also won all 3 home Europa League games this season with wins over Galatasaray and PAOK very strong results.

Ostersund have goals in their side at home and their 0-2 win in Zorya was a really good result already in the Group. Beating Hertha Berlin won't be easy, but I will back the home team with the start here which will at least provide a positive return as long as Ostersund can avoid defeat.


Everton v Apollon Limassol Pick: Winning back to back games at Goodison Park over the last eight days will have done Ronald Koeman and Everton the world of good and they will be confident they can get their Europa League Group back on track. The 3-0 hammering in Atalanta means Everton can't afford to drop points at home if they do want to make their way through to the Last 32, especially with a back to back against Lyon to come.

They have beaten Sunderland and Bournemouth here and Koeman will likely pick another strong team against Apollon Limassol.

The Cypriot League is not the toughest around and Tottenham Hotspur's win at APOEL earlier in the week will have shown the difference in the quality between their League and the Premier League in England. Apollon Limassol did show heart to score a late equaliser against Lyon in the Group already, but they may not be as strong when they head out on their travels.

Apollon Limassol have already lost at Aberdeen in the Europa League this season and I think Everton will get the better of them here.

Clean sheets have been a problem for Everton, but they have only conceded 4 goals in 6 home games in the 2017/18 season and three of those came against Tottenham Hotspur. That is going to be the foundation from which Koeman will look to build and I think Everton can be backed to win this one with a clean sheet at odds against.


Ludogorets Razgrad v Hoffenheim Pick: This looks like it will be a difficult Group to come through with three clubs who began in the Champions League making up the quartet, while Sporting Braga are the exception but also the only club with a win through the first round of fixtures.

That makes this game in Bulgaria between Ludogorets Razgrad and Hoffenheim a big one for both clubs.

Ludogorets Razgrad have the extensive European experience to call upon and have won their last 3 home games in European Football, but Hoffenheim have to be respected having continued to surprise in Germany. However Hoffenheim are looking for their first positive result in European competition having lost all 3 games they have played against Liverpool (twice) and Sporting Braga.

Hoffenheim are a team who can get forward and score goals, but they are perhaps a little naive at the back. That is highlighted by the fact they have scored at least least twice in 3 consecutive away games, but at the same time have conceded at least twice in each of those games.

I do think Ludogorets Razgrad have the experience to take advantage of the defensive issues Hoffenheim will have, but I also think the German club will be dangerous in the final third. Picking a winner is therefore tougher than you may think, but picking at least three goals to be shared out looks the obvious play.

Usually it won't work out when everything is pointing to an 'obvious' pick, but I do think these two teams are built to share out goals. I will back at least three to be shared out with all three results on the win-draw-win market a distinct possibility.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Besiktas + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 2.20 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Monaco @ 2.15 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 2.62 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet365 (2 Units)
Nice - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ostersund + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton Win to Nil @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Ludogorets-Hoffenheim Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

September Update: 17-21-3, - 4.28 Units (77 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)

Weekend Football Thoughts 2015 (September 26-28)

We have just about got through the first two months of the 2015/16 season and the domestic League tables are beginning to make sense now.

This week we will see a number of teams turn their attention back to the Champions League before what looks like a very big weekend of Premier League football and a true 'Super Sunday' for the neutrals to enjoy.

On with the stories that have come out of the weekend football.

Time for an Expanded Video Replay System?

I am sure I am not the only football fan out there that has been enjoying the Rugby World Cup which is currently taking place and it is a sport that has embraced technology to help get the decisions right.

I am not a big fan of going to the video for almost every little detail, I think the referees have to keep the human element in the game, especially as some of the rugby matches seem to last an eternity when the video is employed constantly.

So I don't think I would want technology to ruin the flow of a football game going forward with everything being checked, but it might be time for 'offside' decisions to be reviewed.

The three decisions in the Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester City game that the linesmen got wrong were almost inexcusable, with or without the video technology. Even if it was employed at the moment, the above image saw the linesman directly in line with Kyle Walker yet he still missed it which makes me wonder what exactly he was doing/watching and that has nothing to do with the video technology.

It's not close enough to give the linesman the benefit of the doubt like the Kevin De Bruyne could be argued for, and the later decision allowing Harry Kane's goal to stand was almost as baffling considering he was inside the box and the rest of the players, bar the goalkeeper, were clearly standing outside of the 18 yard line.

Some people will use the 'speed of the game' as an excuse, but the Kane goal came from a direct free kick so there was no 'speed' that could have affected the linesman decision, while the above decision was simply ridiculous.

My biggest concern with video technology has to be slowing down the game and just killing the flow that makes football exciting. Maybe a challenge system like that employed in the NFL or the professional tennis tours can be put into football, especially for these matter of fact incidents like an offside or a goal being scored but anything more than that and you know the Premier League will change a ninety minute game into one that lasts much, much longer.

Manchester United Finally Back on Top of the Premier League

Ever since the formation of the Premier League, Manchester United have been considered a title challenger or a team that will certainly spend time at the top of the Premier League. The earlier result at White Hart Lane on Saturday gave the club the chance to reach the summit of the Premier League for the first time since Sir Alex Ferguson departed in May 2013.

Manchester United weren't going to miss that opportunity against Sunderland and a 3-0 win saw them move to a position fans were very familiar in seeing the side under Sir Alex Ferguson.

I can't deny that it was exciting to see the League table with Manchester United leading the way, but there is a long way to go for a title challenge to really develop.

Firstly I think Manchester United are perhaps a point short in what they should have earned from the opening set of fixtures, the two points dropped against Newcastle United the key. Of course teams will drop points in a competitive League like the Premier League so that isn't a big concern and it is all about finishing above 19 other teams no matter how the points are earned.

Second, I am looking forward to seeing where Manchester United are come November 1st.

Why? The next four Premier League games before that date sees Manchester United travelling to Arsenal, Everton and Crystal Palace while hosting Manchester City and it will give everyone a much truer picture of whether Louis Van Gaal can put a title challenge together.

If Manchester United are still on top of the Premier League on that date in a little over a months time, I will truly begin to believe they can win the title this season.

The Return of Daniel Sturridge comes at a Crucial Time for Brendan Rodgers

After a really positive start to the Premier League season, recent results had left Brendan Rodgers under serious pressure as Liverpool manager with rumours racing that they are looking for his replacement.

Injuries and poor signings haven't helped the cause, but the return of Daniel Sturridge might have come at a critical time for Liverpool and Rodgers.

It was Sturridge who scored twice to help the side beat Aston Villa 3-2 at Anfield on Saturday and finally having someone at the end of the creativity should have Liverpool moving in a positive direction. Sturridge is the best fit up front for what Rodgers is trying to do with Liverpool and his goals might have eased the pressure on the manager, but he has missed chunks of the last twelve months.

Keeping Sturridge fit might be the big link between Rodgers being in or out of the dugout at Anfield in the foreseeable future and I can bet the manager has no intention of making his striker available for the England European Qualifiers that are played in a couple of weeks.

This was always seen as a big week for Rodgers with the Merseyside derby ending it before the international break and Sturridge might just be the man to earn him a reprieve if the rumours of an imminent sacking were to be believed.

Callum Wilson's Injury could be a Major Blow to Bournemouth

When teams come up from the Championship, the hardest task might be finding a player that can consistently score the goals at the Premier League level that can help them avoid relegation.

It doesn't always work as Queens Park Rangers found out despite having Charlie Austin up front, but it is still a huge help for these promoted teams to have someone who they can rely upon.

Bournemouth looked to have their striker in Callum Wilson with some suggesting he might be in line for an England call-up, but unfortunately he suffered what looks like a long-term knee injury on Saturday.

Missing Wilson for considerable time will be a big blow to Eddie Howe and the next two months are critical for Bournemouth to find a way to keep churning out the results in his absence. Glenn Murray has experience at the Premier League level, but he doesn't have the pace of Wilson nor is he a player that wants to get behind the last line of defence by playing on the shoulders of defenders and so Bournemouth have to make some big adjustments.

The winter months are approaching and it could be some dark times for Bournemouth who have a difficult portion of their fixture list upcoming following the game with Watford next weekend. Losing Wilson through those months might be the catalyst to The Cherries slipping into the relegation zone and it will be a big task for Eddie Howe to get them out of trouble barring huge investments in the January transfer window.

I do enjoy the football Bournemouth try to produce, but that isn't enough to survive in the Premier League if there isn't much of an end product there without Wilson.

Can Barcelona Overcome Lionel Messi's Two Month Injury?

Unlike the Premier League in England, the Spanish Primera Division doesn't have the same level of competitiveness and that means any downturn in form from the likes of Barcelona or Real Madrid gives the other a distinct chance to win the title.

Atletico Madrid might have something to say about that considering they were Champions just two seasons ago, but really most people expect either Barcelona or Real Madrid to win the title in Spain.

Losing Lionel Messi for up to two months could be a huge dent for Barcelona despite the form they ended last season. They have struggled to match that to open this season with Lionel Messi and having to do without their talisman might give Real Madrid the impetus to create a lead in the Division that will be tough to overturn in the second half of the season.

Real Madrid haven't exactly been in flying form themselves with injuries to key players in their squad perhaps hindering them from picking up momentum, but this is a great chance for Rafa Benitez to pull away from Barcelona. There is just one point separating Barcelona from Real Madrid and it will be interesting to see where that stands when Messi returns in early December.

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (September 26-28)

The Capital One Cup took centre stage during the week, while the European Leagues had a full schedule of games as their later start than the English Premier League means they are playing catch up in terms of number of games played going into the second international break.

That international break will be after the next round of Premier League games played in early October as the European Championships fills sixteen of the twenty-four places that are up for grabs in France next year.

I had a few comments out of the last weekend's football including Diego Costa, Anthony Martial and North East football troubles which can be read here.


The picks so far this season have been just missing the bit of luck they need which was highlighted by Bournemouth and Sunderland last week where two of the three goals I had predicted were scored in the first nine minutes. Some poor finishing and refereeing prevented the third goal being scored and that means the picks for September are narrowly in the red.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: If this game had been played two weeks ago, I am convinced Manchester City would have been a much shorter price to win at White Hart Lane in the form that both themselves and Tottenham Hotspur had been in.

The losses to Juventus and West Ham United would have knocked some confidence from Manchester City, or at least inspired the opponents, and Tottenham Hotspur have also improved since then. Back to back Premier League wins has Spurs moving in the right direction, but they have been tight wins and I am not sure there is enough character in the team to recover if they were to fall behind.

I can't doubt the talent that Tottenham Hotspur have, but they do look short of the top teams and Mauricio Pochettino hasn't finishing building the squad to his own taste. While they will give Manchester City something to think about with some pacy players in the forward line, I don't know how the Spurs defence is going to cope with what Manchester City can throw at them the other way.

If David Silva is passed fit, Manchester City should have enough creativity to open up the Tottenham Hotspur defence and I do think they have enjoyed the space that the home team offer them in their visits. It was an impressive win for Spurs over Crystal Palace last weekend, but I think the level of opponent increases again and Manchester City have been scoring plenty of goals away from home to think they can come through with a victory here.


Leicester City v Arsenal Pick: How many people would have predicted that Leicester City versus Arsenal would be a top five match up after six games in the Premier League had been played? That is the surprising situation going into the weekend, although Leicester City have had to battle back from 0-2 deficits in their last two Premier League games to remain unbeaten.

One of those came at the KP Stadium when Leicester City didn't just come back from 0-2 down to Aston Villa, but they actually won the game 3-2. Character is not to be questioned, while Leicester City have the pace in the forward areas that is likely to give any team in England problems on their day.

This is a confident team that is clearly having a slight edge when it comes to fitness over opponents with the team finishing strongly in their last four Premier League games and being forced to come from behind in each one. The fact they have done that to remain unbeaten is a real testament to the work being done on the training ground, but three of their last four Premier League games have ended in draws while Leicester City needed extra time to beat West Ham United in the Capital One Cup.

Going behind to Arsenal is a different story than going behind to Aston Villa or Stoke City and I wouldn't fancy the Leicester City chances of recovering that deficit this weekend.

However, they might be able to take advantage if Arsenal are not fully focused considering The Gunners have a must win Champions League game against Olympiacos in just three days time. Defensively there have been some problems for Leicester City and I expect Arsenal will exploit some of those, but this is a team that is also scoring plenty of goals.

It would be a big surprise if both teams don't score on Saturday and this has all the makings of a game that will feature goals. This could easily feature as many as four goals with the way Leicester City have been attacking and defending and the natural way Arsenal approach games, but I will simply look for at least three goals to be shared out this week.


Liverpool v Aston Villa Pick: Liverpool and Aston Villa have both had a difficult time in recent games and there are going to be plenty of nerves and lots of tension in this fixture on Saturday. Both teams are desperate for the three points to ease some of the tension that exists at both clubs and that is going to make this a fascinating watch.

Tim Sherwood is not under pressure in his position as manager, but Aston Villa won't want to see another relegation battle develop in the coming months. He has made a lot of signings and there have been a few goings in the summer so the expectation is that Sherwood will be given the time to turn things around even if the immediate results don't pick up.

The same can't be said for Brendan Rodgers who has seen the likes of Carlo Ancelotti and Jurgen Klopp linked with the top job at Anfield in the last few days. A home draw with Norwich City has extended a poor turn in form and the two wins Liverpool opened the season with feel like they are a lifetime ago.

Liverpool haven't always played badly, but they have struggled to get the consistency in the final third, although a return of Daniel Sturridge could be huge for them. Christian Benteke might not be able to play against his former club, but that might work for Rodgers who can use Sturridge in his natural position and return to the kind of game many of these Liverpool players are more comfortable playing.

This has been something of a bogey fixture for Liverpool in recent seasons, winning just 1 of their last 6 at Anfield against Aston Villa and losing to them last season. Pressure does a funny thing to teams so it won't be easy for Liverpool, although Aston Villa's poor defensive record should give Liverpool a chance to earn the three points.

It is a 'must win' game for Liverpool which also produces funny results, but I think they can do that this weekend.


Manchester United v Sunderland Pick: I really don't know how many more defeats Dick Advocaat can take as manager of Sunderland before either he decides to give someone else a chance of the board makes that decision for him.

After seeing his Sunderland team beaten easily at the hands of Bournemouth and Manchester City during the week, the next two League games at Manchester United and at home against West Ham United are huge for Advocaat before the international break.

Two more losses might see Sunderland cut ties with their Dutch manager and this week he faces a compatriot in the opposite dug-out who was very impressed with the character Manchester United showed in winning 2-3 at Southampton last week.

Louis Van Gaal will be pleased that his side have begun to respond by scoring goals after a fairly slow start in front of goal and back to back Premier League games with three goals scored will please the manager. There is a real possibility that Manchester United can challenge for the Premier League title, but we will know more about them at the end of October once they have played Arsenal, Everton and Manchester City.

Those three games upcoming means Manchester United can't afford to drop points on Saturday and I don't think they will do that. Even the big Champions League game against Wolfsburg is played on Wednesday so there is enough recovery time for Manchester United ahead of that to ensure they are fully focused on the task at hand.

With the goals flowing again and Sunderland looking a mess at the back, I can see Manchester United reaching the three goal mark for the third League game in a row. This is a game I am expecting Manchester United to dominate and put that domination on the scoreboard with a confidence boosting win to take into the Champions League game next week.


Stoke City v Bournemouth Pick: The story out of Stoke City's home draw with Leicester City was the home team were as good in the first half as they were bad in the second and that has to be a concern for Mark Hughes. No one expected Stoke City to be involved in the relegation scrap this season, but they will be a little nervous and looking to finally get the first League win on the board to build some momentum.

The longer they wait for that win, the more nervousness spreads around the squad and it becomes a vicious circle which can be hard to get out of. A home game with Bournemouth is the kind of match that Stoke City would be expecting to win and they will be given the chance to play their game against a team that likes to get the ball down themselves.

It could produce a pretty good game for the neutrals as both Stoke City and Bournemouth have shown they are perhaps better going forward than they have been defensively. That is especially the case for Bournemouth who have found goals at this level, but have struggled at the other end with the clean sheet against Sunderland the first of the season in the Premier League.

Even that clean sheet came thanks to a couple of poor refereeing decisions and I expect Stoke City to create chances as they did against Leicester City.

However, it is the nerves of trying to put the first win on the board that should give Bournemouth a chance to get amongst the goals themselves and I do think both teams will score in this one. The last two Bournemouth away games in the Premier League have produced at least three goals and Stoke City showed last week against Leicester City that they are capable of scoring goals while still a little unsure at the back.

At odds against, backing at least three goals looks to be the call.


West Ham United v Norwich City Pick: I don't think there will be too many teams that win at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City this season, but West Ham United have done that in their first three away games in the Premier League already. You can't take away home impressive some of those performances have been, but Slaven Bilic will be hoping to keep that form going at Upton Park where they have lost 2 of their 3 League games.

The start of that was a 2-0 win over Newcastle United a couple of weeks ago and West Ham United will certainly put the pressure on Norwich City, but they can't take this game for granted.

Despite returning to the Premier League this season, Norwich City have shown they are capable of mixing with teams at this level with some decent results through the first two months of the campaign. A 1-1 draw at Liverpool showed that Norwich City will be tough to beat for any team at the moment, but West Ham United have pace and power in forward areas and can prove too good.

The Hammers have played well against Norwich City at home in recent years and did win their last League game against them at Upton Park two years ago. This game is going to be all about making a positive start as they did against Newcastle United because the counter attack is definitely a tactic that suits West Ham United more than having to do the consistent pressing.

That is part of the reason they have been so much more effective away from home yet have lost home games against Leicester City and Bournemouth. Those losses will give Norwich City confidence, but West Ham United look a decent price at odds against to win this weekend.


Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: Go back ten days and all the stories were about the pressure that Jose Mourinho was under at Stamford Bridge, but three consecutive wins over three competitions have eased those tensions. It doesn't mean Chelsea can exhale now as they continue to try and build up some steam to move up the Premier League table as Mourinho takes his side to St James' Park where he has yet to win as a manager.

The Blues have lost their last two visits to St James' Park and this is clearly a bogey ground for Mourinho, although it is hard to see how Newcastle United lift themselves after the knocks they have taken over the last month. All the positives of the beginning of the Steve McClaren reign are gone and Mourinho was sympathetic to the former England manager who is beginning to feel the pressure at Newcastle United.

Of course the new signings made in the summer means there is going to be a transition period for Newcastle United, but the fans expected much more than being 19th in the League table after half a dozen games. Going out of the League Cup to a side from the Championship and seeing that result drop Newcastle United to a 3 game losing run at home is beginning to turn St James' Park into anything other than the fortress it should be.

A lack of goals is a problem that McClaren has to fix, although Chelsea haven't exactly been watertight for much of the season, and it is hard to see where Newcastle United go from here. A home game with Chelsea followed by a trip to Manchester City might leave McClaren in a nervy spot during the two week international break and it is going to be tough for them to raise their game on Saturday.

Players can be motivated by the fact they are playing the Champions and they have beaten Chelsea twice in a row here, but I think Mourinho's side might have turned a corner. They haven't played too many top teams in their 3 game winning run, but Chelsea look confident although the absence of Diego Costa is a blow.

There are still players capable of winning this game for Chelsea although they look short enough considering recent results in this part of the North East. I do think Chelsea have looked like they have got some defensive organisation back and the fans might just put too much pressure on the home side to get anything consistent going in the final third. Newcastle United have only scored one goal in their last three games at home and I think Chelsea can find their way to the three points while keeping a clean sheet this weekend.

MY PICKS: Manchester City @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Leicester City-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Stoke City-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
West Ham United @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 2.88 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

September Update: 19-22-2, - 0.88 Units (80.5 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)

August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)