Boxing Picks 2017- Jorge Linares vs Anthony Crolla II (March 25th)

There have been so many good fights already in 2017 and March has been something of a month of upsets beginning with Tony Bellew's win over David Haye.

Last weekend saw Roman Gonzalez lose his unbeaten record, while Gennady Golovkin was a narrow winner over Daniel Jacobs in a fight where GGG was made to look the most human he has in years.

I actually had Jacobs winning the fight, but it wasn't a robbery of a decision because so many of the Rounds were very, very closely contested and it comes down to whether you liked Jacobs' slickness or Golovkin's come forward attitude.


This week the main card that is drawing the attention of the fans will come from the Manchester Arena as Anthony Crolla tries to earn a measure of revenge over Jorge Linares having lost the first fight on a Unanimous Decision back in September. There is a half decent undercard put together too in a week where yet another big fight in England was announced as Kell Brook gets ready to defend his World title against Errol Spence Jr at Bramall Lane in May.

We should hear an announcement from Amir Khan in the next couple of weeks for his next fight and the British boxing scene continues to thrive.

It was also good to hear Dereck Chisora is going to get his chance to earn revenge over Robert Helenius when he travels to Helsinki to take on the home fighter. It has been a few years since Helenius received a very fortunate decision against Chisora, but the latter will head over to get the better of him and line up a World Title shot against Deontay Wilder.

Brian Rose vs Jack Arnfield

There is local rivalry on the line as both Brian Rose and Jack Arnfield are looking to become known as the Number 1 Middleweight fighting out of Blackpool.

Things have become tense between Rose and Arnfield to the point that they had to be separated after the weigh in and during the traditional face off. It had been respectful for a while, but it is clear that Rose feels he is way above Arnfield while Bobby Rimmer has used his familiarity with Arnfield to accuse his former charge of being jealous of Rose.

You can't ignore the resumes of the two boxers as Rose has been in with the bigger names and been involved in the bigger fights. The Majority Decision loss to Matthew Macklin last year might have been the end of the road for Rose, but he still believes he has one more run in him.

Losing this fight isn't an option for Rose if that is the ambition as I am not sure where he can go if he is defeated by Arnfield. The latter is showing improvements in his fights, but I am not sure he is going to be a World Champion although it does feel like Arnfield has perhaps passed by Rose who is on the way down.

Arnfield has won four fights in a row since his loss to Nick Blackwell but this is his toughest test since then. The key question has to be how much Rose has left in the tank because he would have been a big favourite in a fight like this eighteen months ago, but the feeling is that Rose has perhaps seen his best days.

If Rose still has something he can win this fight, but Arnfield is the younger and physically bigger man and I think that will be a difference maker. Neither can really describe themselves as power punchers, but I can see them delving into something of a tear up at times with local pride at stake.

Rose has been stopped in three of his four previous losses, and Arnfield has stopped two of his last four opponents. That might tempt some in to back the younger fighter to earn a big win for his CV with a stoppage, but I think the most likely result is Arnfield winning this one on points.

I like Rose, but I do think this is the end of his career and Arnfield can out-box him from range and stay out of trouble. I did consider Arnfield winning this one late on as perhaps he picks off Rose as the potential for The Lion's corner to prevent him taking too much punishment is high. There is needle from the weigh in too but pride should make sure Rose hears the final bell in what is likely to be a losing decision.

Jorge Linares vs Anthony Crolla II

When these fighters met in September, I picked Jorge Linares to win the fight and was surprised that they were set as a pick 'em.

I can't say much has changed in this one except the fact the layers have understood that Linares is one of the top fighters in this Division and so this time he comes in as a healthy favourite to beat Anthony Crolla.

You have to like Crolla- he is a Manchester United fan, which will always sit well with me, but his recovery from the attack he suffered when preventing a neighbour being burgled is inspiring. Some thought he wouldn't fight again, but instead he became a legitimate World Champion and so you have to root for someone like that.

I'd love to see Crolla win the title and either have the trilogy fight with Linares or head to Vegas to take on Mikey Garcia, the American who will be a keen observer while working for Showtime in the United States. However that means Crolla being able to overturn the clear difference in quality that Linares showed against him in the first fight and I am not sure he can do that.

Some will point to the way Crolla beat Darleys Perez in the second fight after a draw was the outcome of the first, but Crolla should have earned the decision in the first fight and knew he could win the rematch. I am not sure he will really believe he can get the better of Linares without the Venezuelan having an off day, but most who have seen him this week will suggest Linares looks in better shape than he did for the first fight.

The big money fights are there for Linares with a win and I think he is showing plenty of confidence in coming back to Manchester to take on the home fighter again. He looks a little stronger this time and Linares came close to stopping Crolla in Round 6 in the first fight and is definitely someone who could be a threat to close the show early in this one.

Linares has talked up the prospect of the early Knock Out, but he is a smart and wily fighter who won't take unnecessary risks early. For Crolla there has been talk of upping the pressure in the second half of the fight than he did the first time around and looking for that to change a couple of Rounds around to help him secure the upset, but I do think Linares has all the tools to diffuse Million Dollar.

I think this is a fight that Linares will feel comfortable in and he can make his counter shots more telling than they were in the first fight. I think he might be able to catch Crolla a little more cleaner in the second half of the fight this time around and perhaps produce an emphatic win without the need to take the risk of going to the cards.

Anthony Crolla has only been stopped once before and he showed how tough he is when he came back from a terrible Round 6 to reach the cards last time out. However I am looking for Linares to be a little sharper with his shooting this time and I think the Champion will take away the judges with a late stoppage in this one as Crolla is perhaps saved by his corner or caught with something as he tries desperately to close the gap on the cards.

That is likely to happen, if at all, in the second half of the fight as Linares wears down Crolla and I will have a small interest in that happening.

MY PICKS: Jack Arnfield Decision or Technical Decision @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jorge Linares Win Between 7-12 @ 6.00 William Hill (1 Unit)

World Cup Qualifier Picks 2017 (March 23-28)

The final international break of the season gives all domestic clubs the chance to take a breath, keep their fingers crossed that the players return without any injuries and then get ready for the big push over the final two months of the season.

That is when the big trophies are handed out and when other clubs learn their fate as to which Division they will be playing in next season, but first we have to get through the two week gap between games.

I've made my disdain for the internationals clear over the last couple of years and the 'excitement' of seeing the likes of England take on the likes of Lithuania can be hard to contain at times. There is going to be a new 'Nations Cup' in operation in the next eighteen months which is supposed to improve the quality of these breaks, but for now we have to make do with a number of mismatches as teams take another step towards the World Cup Finals in Russia which begin in fifteen months time.

There are not many rounds of Qualifiers left before we make up the next World Cup Finals though and so perhaps the intensity of games will pick up, especially those being played in the South American Qualifying Group. There are six nations who will feel they are good enough to be playing in Russia next year, but only four automatic spots and one Play Off spot for those teams.

With six games left, a big name nation looks set to miss out and so every game has taken on a new importance with two of those six games being played in the next few days. The European Qualifiers seem to be a little more 'boring' with the big nations taking on overmatched opponents, although there are at least a couple of really open looking Groups that will keep fans interested.


The World Cup Qualifiers will be played over the next few days and I will put up any picks from those games in this one thread. That will cover both rounds of games in the South American Qualifiers as well as all the European Qualifiers which are played from Friday through to Sunday.


Colombia v Bolivia Pick: This is a really important World Cup Qualifier for Colombia who can't afford to drop more points if they do want to finish in the top five of a tough section. That is the very least they would have expected when these Qualifiers began, but it does look like one of the bigger nations will miss the trip to Russia as the top six teams in South America all battle for their places.

Beating a poor travelling team like Bolivia has to be the least Colombia expect before a vital game in Ecuador next week.

Bolivia can't be underestimated having proven they can provide a shock result on their travels through previous editions of the Qualifiers having earned draws in Brazil and Argentina. They also drew in Chile earlier in this Group, even if that result was changed in the aftermath of an ineligible player being in the Bolivia line up.

Those results are the exception to the usual rule that Bolivia lose on their travels in these Qualifiers having fallen to a defeat in 28 of their last 32 away Qualifiers. They also have a poor record in Colombia having lost their last 6 games played in that country and I do think Colombia will be a little too good for them.

When Bolivia lose, they do tend to lose by a wide margin and I think Colombia can win this one and cover the Asian Handicap.


Paraguay v Ecuador Pick: This is a really important World Cup Qualifier for both Paraguay and Ecuador as the games begin to run out and the Group takes a more permanent shape. Anything other than a win for Paraguay will surely mean their run to the World Cup Finals in Russia is over, while a defeat for Ecuador will make them vulnerable to the three teams who are currently behind them.

However a win for Ecuador will keep the pressure on Chile, Argentina and Colombia below them and give the nation a huge step towards another World Cup Finals appearance. That should encourage them to get forward, but Ecuador have struggled away from home in recent World Cup Qualifiers and have conceded at least twice in 4 straight Qualifiers on their travels.

It should be something that inspires Paraguay who have won all 7 home Qualifiers against Ecuador in the past, but the fact that Ecuador have scored in their last 8 away World Cup Qualifiers makes them dangerous too.

Both teams should have their chances to score and I would be surprised if either is satisfied with a draw which could produce an exciting game. The last 4 World Cup Qualifiers here between these nations have produced at least three goals shared out and the last 3 overall between Paraguay and Ecuador have done the same.

The 1-1 scoreline is a real player, but I think one of these teams pushes forward for the win and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out at a big price.


Argentina v Chile Pick: Both Argentina and Chile will be hoping they can do enough over their last six games to finish inside the top four of the World Cup Qualifying Group in South America and the winning team in this game will take a big step towards that goal. There is plenty of quality that both Argentina and Chile can call upon which should be good enough to automatically Qualify for the World Cup Finals, but both have had some struggles during this long slog.

Being at home should be an advantage for Argentina, but they have not always capitalised on that. They did, however, crush Colombia in their last World Cup Qualifier here and I think Argentina can back that up with a victory over Chile.

As well as Chile have played in recent Qualifiers to move above Argentina, they have not been as consistent away from home and their last two World Cup Qualifiers in Argentina have ended in routine losses.

The feeling is that something similar will happen here as Argentina exert their quality on a Chile team that might have a hampered and out of confidence Alexis Sanchez in the line up. Chile have lost heavily at Uruguay and Ecuador during this World Cup Qualifying campaign and I will back Argentina to cover the Asian Handicap in a win over them on Thursday.


Venezuela v Peru Pick: These two nations might have regularly become part of the also-rans in the South American World Cup Qualifiers, but this edition might have a different feel for Peru if they can win in Venezuela. That would take them onto the brink in cracking the top five places in a tough Qualifying Group, but Peru have struggled in Venezuela as they have lost their last 4 World Cup Qualifiers here.

Those games have been exciting affairs for the neutrals and this one has every chance of going the same way.

Venezuela will attack at home and they do tend to score and concede plenty of goals in front of their own fans. You have to think Peru will play with a little more caution as they know they have something to gain from this fixture, but this is a team who are not as strong on their travels and have been involved in some high-scoring games in recent away Qualifiers.

The last 4 World Cup Qualifiers here may have been won by Venezuela, but all have seen at least three goals shared out. In fact 5 of the last 6 between Venezuela and Peru in World Cup Qualifiers have resulted in goals and this one feels it could go the same way with both teams likely to have their opportunities in front of goal.

It surprises me that the oddsmakers are offering odds against on this game featuring at least three goals and I will back that to happen.


Georgia v Serbia Pick: The oddsmakers have set Serbia as an odds on favourite to win in Georgia but it is hard to be that excited about those prices when you think they have won 3 of their last 11 away Qualifiers. The Serbian national team have won at Albania and Moldova in recent away Qualifiers, but Georgia will offer them plenty of problems in this one and I think it might be a close game.

The Serbia win in Albania came thanks to two injury time goals and they are now facing a Georgia team who don't usually collapse in home Qualifiers.

Both Poland and Germany won by at least two goals here in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers, but Georgia were narrowly beaten by the Republic of Ireland and have also suffered narrow home losses to the likes of Spain, Finland and Austria in recent years.

While I do think Serbia can match those teams and earn the win here, I don't think it will be an easy game for them and I do think Georgia will make life difficult. It has to be said when Serbia win away from home in these Qualifiers, they tend to do it by a wide margin, but that might not be the case here.

I am leaning towards Serbia earning a vital three points which can put them in a strong position in the Group, but I will back them to win by a one goal margin for a small interest.


Turkey v Finland Pick: The oddsmakers have set Turkey as a pretty strong favourite to win this Qualifier and you have to think home advantage is going to be telling against Finland. However I think it is going to be far from a straight forward game for Turkey who are under pressure to stay with the three teams above them in the Group with little room for error.

A slow start was overcome in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers but that had a lot to do with the additional places being offered in the Finals of that tournament. Those simply don't exist in the World Cup Qualifiers and the likes of Croatia, Iceland and Ukraine are all going to want to get to Russia having reached the Euro 2016 Finals.

Failing to win home games against Finland and matching what Iceland and Ukraine have already done would be a huge blow for Turkey and I do think they will do enough to earn the three points.

However it should be noted that Finland's 3 defeats in the Group have all come by a single goal margin and that includes in those visits to Iceland and Ukraine. Digging a little deeper into their recent away Qualifiers and you will see Finland have earned a draw in Spain and won in Greece, while also narrowly losing at Euro 2016 participants Northern Ireland and Hungary.

I have every faith Finland make this a tough day in the office for Turkey and I think the home team will have to be patient and wait for the chances to come their way. While I do think Turkey will just about edge the game, I will have a small interest on them winning this one by a single goal margin instead of looking for Turkey to win this while covering the Asian Handicap.

The oddsmakers have got the Asian Handicap at a good line and so backing Turkey to win by a single goal margin looks a decent angle for this Qualifier.


Croatia v Ukraine Pick: Over the last few years you will have regularly seen Croatia tipped as a dark horse to win a major international tournament, but they have yet to really fulfil their promise in the Finals since finishing 3rd in the 1998 World Cup. Last year was another disappointment as they went out with a whimper against Portugal in Euro 2016 despite showing so much promise in the Group.

They are the favourites to progress to the World Cup Finals in Russia next year, but one of the issues that I think Croatia need to resolve is finding a consistent goal scoring threat. They have a lot to like about their play as they reach the final third, but putting the finishing touch on chances is key to Croatia's chances of taking the next step.

It will be tested in this game against Ukraine who have played well in the Group but might be a position based on the fact that three of four Qualifiers have been played at home. The 2-2 draw in Turkey was a very good result and Ukraine have shown they are a tough team to beat in these away Qualifiers with some solid results over the last two campaigns.

Ukraine suffered a narrow loss in Spain, but they have avoided defeat in Slovakia and Slovenia and that toughness can keep them in this important game.

Ultimately I do think Croatia will be a little better on the day with home advantage important for them. It would be a surprise if it is a comfortable win though and I think backing Croatia to win by a single goal margin at minimum stakes might be the best call in this one.


Republic of Ireland v Wales Pick: As we reach the halfway stage of the European World Cup Qualifiers, this Group looks like one that might be a lot clearer by the end of this round of games. The Republic of Ireland have made a really positive start to the Group and a win on Friday night over Wales will put them in a very strong position to make it to Russia next summer.

The pressure does feel like it is on Wales to produce something having played three of their five home Qualifiers and returned just 6 points overall. While they have become harder to beat, teams have learnt that you don't want to give Wales the space to counter attack and that has made it more difficult for them to win games.

That was highlighted in the 1-1 home draw with Georgia as Wales struggled to put together the system that sees them dominate possession and break down opponents. It is likely to be a little more positive from the Republic of Ireland being at home, but Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane have shown a pragmatic approach to games and the draw definitely suits them more than Wales.

Ireland have won 4 home Qualifiers in a row which will give them plenty of confidence, but this is not a team who will score a lot of goals and so opponents always have a chance against them. The injuries won't be used as an excuse for O'Neill or Keane, but it might make the draw even more appealing as it will keep the Republic of Ireland in a very strong position in the Group going into the second half of the Qualifiers.

Wales did play well away from home in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group, but I don't think there will be a lot between these teams. It is likely to be a tight game that might not feature a lot of goals either, but I think the draw could be the result that suits the home team and it may be the most likely outcome of this one.


Sweden v Belarus Pick: The retirement of Zlatan Ibrahimovic at the end of the Euro 2016 tournament means a new era for Sweden, but the players have responded in the right way by producing some solid performances in the World Cup Qualifiers. They are unlikely to catch France in this Group, but Sweden have every chance of finishing above the Netherlands and earning a Play Off spot.

That goal can only be achieved if they win Qualifiers like this one and I do think Sweden will be too good for Belarus when they host them on Saturday.

You can't completely discount Belarus as they have shown they are capable of producing a surprise result or two. They won in Slovakia in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers, which is an impressive result, but defeats to the Netherlands and Bulgaria in this Group won't inspire a lot of confidence.

The side have also 'only' managed a home draw with Luxembourg and Sweden tend to be very tough to beat at home. Sweden crushed Bulgaria 3-0 here and they have won 5 of their last 7 home Qualifiers with all but one of those wins coming by a two goal margin at the least.

At odds against I will look for Sweden to continue that run by asking them to cover the Asian Handicap in a home Qualifier win to keep the pressure on their two main rivals for the World Cup berths in this section.


Belgium v Greece Pick: This game could determine the outcome of this Group with Belgium and Greece leading the way in the section, although Bosnia-Herzegovina will still believe they can finish in the top two in the Group.

The points earned by Greece are off the back of a nice portion of their schedule with none of the wins they have earned unlikely to be matched by the other two big nations in the Group. Three of the next four games for Greece sees them take on Belgium twice and also visit Bosnia-Herzegovina and that might determine whether they are capable of making the top two in the section and a third straight World Cup Finals.

Belgium certainly look like they are going to win the Group and a win on Saturday will put them in firm control of the section. They have been playing very well in the Qualifiers as Roberto Martinez has found a way to get the attacking side of their game working to the point of scoring plenty of goals.

The home wins have been important to the foundation of their Qualifying campaigns over the last few years and Belgium have already hammered both Bosnia-Herzegovina and Estonia at home while scoring at least four goals in each game. They should have most of the attacking play in this one and can beat Greece with something to spare.

Greece have a decent away record in recent Qualifiers, but they were beaten in the Faroe Islands and Northern Ireland in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers and I would expect Belgium to match that. With the goals in the squad, I will look for Belgium to win this one by a couple of goals.


Azerbaijan v Germany Pick: An impressive start to the World Cup Qualifying campaign has to have given the Azerbaijan fans some excitement that they might be able to gate crash the party being hosted by neighbours Russia next summer. It would be a real stunner if Azerbaijan were able to reach the World Cup Finals, but their win over Norway and draw in the Czech Republic will have given them a lot of confidence.

That would have been dented some by the 4-0 loss in Northern Ireland, but an upset of Germany on Sunday would reignite the Azerbaijan belief in achieving a miracle over the next several months.

That upset looks unlikely and I think Germany will prove to be too good in this one as they should be able to pull away for a comfortable win. All 4 Germany wins in the Qualifiers have been very comfortable and it will be difficult for Azerbaijan to contain a team that should have a more familiar look than the one that started the friendly with England last week.

Azerbaijan have to be respected in the fact they have challenged teams when they have visited Baku and they have not been beaten by more than two goals at home since 2011 in a Qualifier. Even the German wins here have both come by a two goal margin in their two visits during the 2010 World Cup and Euro 2012 Qualifiers.

However Germany have looked very strong in this set of Qualifiers and have won both away Qualifiers played by at least three goals each time. I will back them to reach that margin again in this one, but will back Germany on the Asian Handicap with the option of getting at least half the stakes returned in case of a two goal margin of victory.


England v Lithuania Pick: Most of the play is going to be made by England and they should prove to be too good for a Lithuania team they beat 4-0 in the last set of Qualifiers and who have suffered a 4-0 loss in Slovakia and a 3-0 loss in the Czech Republic in their last couple of away games.

This was a team that were also beaten 4-0 in Switzerland in the last set of Qualifiers and England have won 11 straight home Qualifiers with all of those coming by at least a two goal margin.

England have had a couple of 'poor' results in that time when you think they have 'only' beaten Estonia and Malta by the same 2-0 scoreline, but the majority of the weaker teams they have played have been brushed aside. They have won by at least three goals against the likes of San Marino (twice), Moldova, Montenegro, Lithuania and Scotland.

It should be England who have the chances and the possession to win this one at a canter and I will back them to record a comfortable win on Sunday and cover the Asian Handicap.


Northern Ireland v Norway Pick: A few years ago Northern Ireland would likely have been the underdog when facing Norway in a Qualifier, even in a game that was going to be played at Windsor Park. That is not the case at this time with Northern Ireland playing in the Euro 2016 Finals and looking like a team that has real ambitions of getting through to the World Cup Finals compared with Norway who are looking to earn experience they can use to good effect going forward.

It is a tough game to get a read on because Northern Ireland are not really a team you would associate with a lot of goals. That just means a Norway goal could be enough to avoid a defeat, but Northern Ireland have played well in home Qualifiers and I think they may just do enough to win this one.

Their home form has been strong in the Qualifiers, while Norway have been really poor in their most recent away Qualifiers. The 1-0 loss to Azerbaijan was a terrible result for Norway and it is going to be as tough in this environment where Northern Ireland have thrived.

Northern Ireland do have a terrible home record against Norway down the years, but the teams look to be in much different places now. While Northern Ireland are now a team that does look to make the major tournament Finals, Norway are just struggling to put wins on the board consistently.

It won't be easy for Northern Ireland but I do think they can earn the three points by a narrow margin in this one. I will simply look for the home team to win this one and keep the pressure on those nations chasing 2nd place in the Group.


Bolivia v Argentina Pick: This is a very important game for Argentina in their bid to make it to the World Cup Finals in Russia next summer. A tight Group means you can't really afford to drop points in a bid to finish in the top four especially not with games in Uruguay and Ecuador to come later in the Group for Argentina.

Visiting La Paz has been anything but routine for Argentina and it is hard to back them at odds on to win here this time. The side have only won 2 of their 6 away World Cup Qualifiers in the Group and playing in the altitude of Bolivia has proven to be an equaliser for the home team who clearly don't have the talent that other South American sides can call upon.

Bolivia have been able to trouble teams when they have visited here and the fact they have 2 wins to Argentina's 1 over their last 5 World Cup Qualifiers in La Paz indicates this will be a tough game for the away team.

However this is quite a poor Bolivia team who have conceded at least twice in 4 of their last 6 home World Cup Qualifiers. On the other hand they had scored at least twice in 4 consecutive home Qualifiers before the 1-0 win over Paraguay and I do think Bolivia can cause some problems for an Argentina team that have struggled for goals.

Then again, Argentina had scored at least twice in 3 consecutive away World Cup Qualifiers before the 3-0 loss in Brazil, a result which means they have conceded at least twice in 3 consecutive away Qualifiers including in Venezuela and Peru.

This does feel like a game that both teams will have their chances and I am expecting both teams to score. The 1-1 is a clear scoreline that could be a player, but I think there might be enough opportunities for more and backing at least three goals to be shared out at close to odds against is a tempting enough price.

The last time these teams played here it did end 1-1, but the previous 4 World Cup Qualifiers between Bolivia and Argentina in La Paz had produced at least three goals each time.


Ecuador v Colombia Pick: One of the harder teams to get a read on in the South American Qualifying Group has to be Colombia who have shown they are capable of some big results when fully focused. However they have also shown they can struggle under the weight of expectation for a nation that loves their football and the inconsistent results makes them dangerous.

This is a tough away game for Colombia as Ecuador have used their home form as a foundation for success in the Group. Ecuador have scored plenty of goals at home in the World Cup Qualifiers and have won half of their last 4 home World Cup Qualifiers against Colombia.

Uruguay, Brazil and Argentina have been the only teams to beat Colombia at home during the World Cup Qualifiers, but Ecuador have played well at home and can match those teams.

Colombia have only once scored more than one goal in their away World Cup Qualifiers in the Group and that gives Ecuador a real chance of winning this one. This is an Ecuador team who have scored at least twice in every home game in the Qualifiers except for the when they played Group leaders Brazil and I think the home advantage could be key in a narrow win for Ecuador which takes them back into the top four in this Group.


Peru v Uruguay Pick: Nothing has been decided in the South American World Cup Qualifying Group outside of Bolivia and Venezuela being out of contention. The Peru fightback in Venezuela last week has kept them within touching distance of a place in the World Cup Finals next summer, but this is almost a must win game.

While not quite as desperate for the visitors, Uruguay have suffered heavy losses in back to back World Cup Qualifiers which has seen the gap close between them and the nations below them. Uruguay remain 2nd in the Group, but they are just 3 points clear of Chile in 6th place and they need to bounce back immediately, especially as the next two Qualifiers are against Argentina and Paraguay.

This is a tough game for Uruguay considering they have won none of their last 5 away Qualifiers and have lost 3 of those games. They have conceded at least twice in 4 of the games and will be tested by a Peru team who had scored in every home Qualifier, at least twice in 4 of 5, before the 0-2 defeat to Brazil.

Both teams will feel they have enough in the final third to get on the scoreboard in this one and the onus is on Peru to keep pushing forward and try to win the game with the three points imperative for their World Cup hopes. 4 of the 6 Peru home Qualifiers and Uruguay away Qualifiers have produced at least three goals and there looks like a real potential for this game to go the same way.

The last World Cup Qualifier between Peru and Uruguay here did end with three goals shared out and I am going to back goals in this World Cup Qualifier.

MY PICKS: Colombia - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paraguay-Ecuador Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Argentina - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Venezuela-Peru Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serbia to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Turkey to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 William Hill (1 Unit)
Croatia to Win by One Goal @ 3.40 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Republic of Ireland-Wales Draw @ 3.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Sweden - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.94 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belgium - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)
Germany - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
England - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Northern Ireland @ 2.45 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Bolivia-Argentina Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Ecuador @ 2.15 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Peru-Uruguay Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)

March Update: 31-32-3, + 1.50 Units (129 Units Staked, + 1.16% Yield)

February Final: 31-50, - 29.34 Units (157 Units Staked, - 18.69% Yield)
January Final: 32-47-1, - 30.88 Units (164 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 243-272-9, - 57.45 Units (1029 Units Staked, - 5.58% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

NBA Picks March 2017 (March 20-26)

The regular season is winding down at a rapid rate which means we are not too far away from the First Round of the Play Offs.

In fact we are only a month away from that and that means you have to be careful at this time of the season as players begin to focus on the bigger picture, while other teams are more interested in earning the best Draft position possible.


Tuesday 21st March
I didn't have any picks from the last three days of the NBA because I didn't really like any of the angles of the games. It's been a difficult month so far with some bad breaks not helping, but there are still enough days to get this turned around heading into the final couple of weeks of the regular season.

I have been a little short of time on Tuesday so I will place my picks from the games in the 'MY PICKS' section and I will be back with fuller picks the rest of the week, if I do find the right games to back.


Wednesday 22nd March
It's remarkably irritating that I have backed two teams in the last few days who have completely and utterly collapsed from a winning position. The Detroit Pistons blew a huge Fourth Quarter lead last Friday and it was Memphis doing that on Tuesday as they allowed a 10 point lead to evaporate in the Third Quarter when they were out-scored 30-6.

Those two picks going my way would have made the totals for March look much better, but both have fallen apart when they should have won.

Indiana Pacers @ Boston Celtics Pick: The Boston Celtics have admitted that they are not overly concerned about chasing down the Cleveland Cavaliers for the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference. The win over the Washington Wizards on Monday has given the Celtics a real edge when it comes to the Number 2 Seed and the rest of the season will be about making sure they at least finish with that Seed behind them and ensure their starting players have enough rest to take into the Play Offs.

The same can't be said for the Indiana Pacers who are still in a battle to simply get them in a position to be playing in late April and it is their inconsistent results which have prevented them securing a spot in the Play Offs already. This is a team who have been very good at home and poor on the road, a recipe that isn't going to produce a deep Play Off run even if they do secure a spot in the post-season.

The Pacers have won and lost half of their last eight games and they have not won or lost two in a row in that run. A concern for Indiana has to be the fact they are likely to be beaten on the boards by the Boston Celtics who have Isaiah Thomas back in the line up even if their star player is not at 100%. That means Thomas is likely to be given a chance to rest at times in the remaining weeks of the regular season, but he should be good to go in this one.

Backing the Boston Celtics as a big favourite has not been a good decision this season but the sharps have been on the Indiana Pacers which has brought this number down to a more manageable level for the home team. However Boston are just 2-5 against the spread when hosting a team who have been poor on the road and they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games following a win.

Indiana don't have a very good recent record against Boston, but they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against a team with a winning record. I will take the points with the road underdog in this one as I look for Indiana to finally produce a decent road performance against a team who invested a lot in beating Washington last time out.


Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards Pick: Both the Washington Wizards and Atlanta Hawks look like they will be making it into the Eastern Conference Play Offs at the end of this season, but their Seeding is still to be decided. Recent form for both teams leaves a lot to be desired as the Wizards have lost four of their last five games and the Hawks have lost four in a row to slip away from some of the momentum they have had.

You would have to say the Atlanta losses have been a little more disappointing as they have come by wide margins and in half of those games they would have been favoured. That isn't the case for Washington who have lost three of four games where they were the underdog and they have been much more competitive in those games which also suggests they are perhaps in a better position to turn things around.

The absences of the likes of Kent Bazemore and Paul Millsap will be hurting the Hawks who could see their Number 5 Seed in the Eastern Conference slip in the coming weeks. The feeling is that the likes of Bradley Beal and John Wall will help Washington break out of their current slump a little better than the Atlanta Hawks who are a little shorthanded and I do think the Wizards can begin that here.

However there has to be a concern with asking Washington to cover this number when you think how poor they have been when favoured by 7 or more points this season. The Hawks have also been a solid team to back as soon as they are given 5 or more points as the underdog.

I'm just not sure they have enough shooting to keep up with the Wizards in this one as both teams look to bounce back from some tough losses of late. While this will be a tight game going into the Fourth Quarter, I will back the Wizards to just have a little too much consistency at the Offensive end of the court to pull away from the Hawks and record a big win at home.


Cleveland Cavaliers @ Denver Nuggets Pick: I have to admit I am going to be going with the squares in this one and that is backing the Cleveland Cavaliers to get the better of the Denver Nuggets on the road. Both teams will be desperate for the win as they battle to keep ahead of rivals either as the Number 1 Seed, as the Cavaliers are, or as the Number 8 Seed, as the Nuggets are.

The Nuggets have not slowed down despite injuries to the likes of Danilo Galinari and Wilson Chandler, but both are on the road back. A key for Denver has been the size they are able to put out on the court which gives them an edge over most teams when it comes to the rebounding battle and that is going to be very important to them in this one.

Both Cleveland and Denver have been able to shoot the ball efficiently in their recent games, but the Nuggets are off back to back losses to the Houston Rockets because of their porous Defensive unit. That is where the Cavaliers have an edge in the contest and it is the better Defensive numbers that should give the road team the chance to pull away from Denver even if the home team will dominate the stats on the boards.

You have to respect Denver because they are 10-4 against the spread when set as an underdog of less than 4 points this season while they are 12-2 against the spread in their last fourteen games off a loss and 13-6 against the spread in their last nineteen home games. However, the Cavaliers should feel well rested with the their top names all sitting on Saturday night and having a couple of days since they last played.

Cleveland are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games in Denver and they can get the better of their hosts in this one.


New York Knicks @ Utah Jazz Pick: This has been an incredibly disappointing season for the New York Knicks fans who had some excitement coming into the season. The mood won't be helped with talk from Kristaps Porzingis that the Knicks were always going to be a bad team and that he didn't have as much hope as the fans clearly had in their potential.

Any hope of a Play Off spot has disappeared over the last month and the Knicks are now playing a lot of their role players to see who can help moving forward. It won't be a big surprise if Carmelo Anthony is one who moves on in the off-season, while Derrick Rose is unlikely to be signed to a long-term deal here.

It all adds up to another disruptive summer coming up for the Knicks who have not improved under the watchful eye of Phil Jackson and James Dolan is another who is feeling the wrath of the fans. Even with that in mind, the Knicks have a chance of covering the spread in Utah against a Jazz team who have lost three in a row and who are trying to fight off a number of teams trying to take their Number 4 Seed in the Western Conference.

New York are not likely to win the game with Utah dominating the boards and being more efficient shooting the ball from the three point range. However this is still a big number for a team like Utah to cover because they are more focused on the Defensive side of the court and I think the Knicks can make the points count.

The Jazz have a huge game with the LA Clippers in a couple of days and may be focused on that one and they are 4-9 against the spread when favoured by 7 or more points this season. Utah are also 2-6-1 against the spread in their last nine games against a team with as poor a record as the Knicks and I will take the double digits and look for New York to remain competitive.


Thursday 23rd March
I have to criticise myself for taking on two teams that I was not entirely convinced about on Wednesday and the fact both disappointed only exasperated by frustration with myself. I switched sides with one of those, which is a big no-no for me, but I will take the shot on the chin and look to get back up off the canvas.

Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat Pick: There are some big Play Off implications on the line when the Miami Heat host the Toronto Raptors on Thursday and both are hoping to improve their position in the Eastern Conference standings. The Toronto Raptors will be looking to chase down the Washington Wizards and finish with the Number 3 Seed in the Conference at the least, while the Miami Heat are hanging onto the Number 8 Seed with a 1.5 game lead over both the Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons.

The bottom half of the Eastern Conference Play Offs is a tight race and the Heat will know a strong end will see them move up the standings and they could even finish as high as Number 5 in the Conference. The Heat have won seven of their last nine games as they have continued fighting hard in the second half of the season when the first half offered up the promise of a really strong lottery pick in the Draft.

Earlier this month they beat the Raptors easily at home and the Miami Heat will be looking to make it four home wins in a row against this opponent. However the likes of Dion Waiters have been ruled out and Hassan Whiteside could be limited which may see the Raptors, even without Serge Ibaka, have an edge on the boards.

It is the Toronto Raptors who have been producing the better Defensive efforts of late, but they did invest a lot of energy in coming back from a big deficit to knock off the Chicago Bulls a couple of nights ago. That might play a part in this one, while the favourite has covered the spread in the last six in the series between these teams.

A reduced Whiteside would be a big blow for Miami though and I think that is the reason this spread is perhaps a little shorter than it may have been. It might mean the Raptors are getting enough points to at least stay within the number and I will back the road underdog to find a way to make those count.


LA Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: The games are beginning to run out for the Dallas Mavericks who have a 3.5 game gap between themselves and the Number 8 Seed Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference. Another loss on Thursday might just start putting the final touches on a difficult season for the Mavericks who look set to miss the Play Offs again, while the LA Clippers come into this game still tracking the Utah Jazz for the Number 4 Seed in the Western Conference which will give them home court advantage in the First Round of the Play Offs.

The Dallas Mavericks got close to the Denver Nuggets, but they have lost four of their last six games and they have got to bounce back from a disappointing blow out loss to the Golden State Warriors. Dallas have played well at home in recent weeks, but they have lost their last couple of games here and are under pressure to stay with the Nuggets who had an impressive win on Wednesday.

It has been an up and down few months for the LA Clippers thanks to injuries, but they are getting healthier and the team have responded with three straight wins ahead of this one. They are only 1 game behind the Utah Jazz for a top four spot in the Western Conference, and that makes every game they have left very important.

In a couple of days the Clippers actually host Utah in a very big game for the Seedings, but Doc Rivers will want them to maintain some momentum going into that one. The Clippers have been shooting the ball with more efficiency than the Mavericks in recent games and they have the kind of size and energy to win the battles around the boards which should give them an edge in this one and a chance to pull away for the win.

The Clippers are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games in Dallas and I will look for them to have a little too much for the Mavericks in this one while matching the Golden State Warriors with a win and cover here.


Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The San Antonio Spurs are trying their best to chase down the Golden State Warriors for the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference, but they won't allow it to consume them. Gregg Popovich has plenty of top Play Off experiences that means he will be resting players over the next couple of weeks to keep his players ready for the post-season, but the Spurs will see the 2.5 game gap between themselves and the Warriors as one they can close.

There will be some revenge on the minds of the Spurs when they host the Memphis Grizzlies who have beaten them twice over the last couple of months. Those wins have been part of a limited highs this season for the Grizzlies who are currently the Number 7 Seed in the Western Conference, but a strong run could see them move up the standings.

However they saw their four game winning run come to an end in embarrassing fashion when beaten at the New Orleans Pelicans a couple of nights ago and the Grizzlies have been so inconsistent through the course of the season. A part of that four game winning run saw the Grizzlies beat San Antonio at home as the underdog, but they have not been as strong on the road as they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five in San Antonio.

The Defensive side of their game has improved and Memphis know they need to keep things tight to give themselves a chance to win any game. Doing that will give them a chance, but San Antonio have been shooting the ball efficiently enough to think they can pull away from the Grizzlies in this one.

San Antonio are 4-1 against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record on the road and Memphis have not been a great team to back when set as a big underdog. It would be a surprise if San Antonio are able to blow out Memphis from tip off to the end of the game, but I do think they will eventually have a little too much consistency Offensively in the second half which allows them to win and cover this spread.


Friday 24th March
I'm seriously not impressed with my picks this week as they've been surrounded by some crappy play at just the wrong time. The Memphis Grizzlies decided they can make some big shots unlike the other day when they were outscored 30-6 once moving into a 10 point lead (those jerks won't make it to six games in the First Round, a terrible team) and the LA Clippers basically allowed the Dallas Mavericks to shoot what they like from the field and even then barely lost.

It's been a frustrating week to this point as I don't think I've had too many breaks down the stretch, plus it makes those two picks I didn't like stand out even more. After the positives of February, March has been much harder work.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers have some real questions to answer after suffering a disappointing loss at the Denver Nuggets last time out. That has opened the door for the Boston Celtics to take the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference, which is not actually the main concern for Cleveland.

Instead they have been described as being soft both mentally and physically and LeBron James has admitted that the team need to improve Defensively. To their defence it should be remembered that Cleveland have only just got all of their pieces in the rotation back, but that isn't going to make them feel much better about themselves.

The slippage from the Defensive performances from last season which led to the NBA Championship has to be a concern and teams simply don't win titles with the Defensive inefficiency that the Cavaliers have been showing.

At least Cleveland have a Play Off berth wrapped up compared with the Charlotte Hornets who have 11 games left to play this season and are still 2.5 games behind the Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference. The Hornets have won three games in a row, but they don't have a lot of room for error and only one of their remaining games is against a team that is currently outside of the top eight of either Conference.

Neither team has been playing that well Defensively of late and you have to think the Cavaliers are going to bounce back from their loss a couple of nights ago. They are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games with the Charlotte Hornets and the Hornets are 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen home games. Charlotte are also 1-8 against the spread this season when set as the underdog of less than 5 points and I will back Cleveland to get back to winning ways despite being the start of another back to back.


Denver Nuggets @ Indiana Pacers Pick: The Indiana Pacers continue to produce up and down performances depending whether they are playing at home or on the road. It has been a strange portion of the schedule which has seen the Indiana Pacers play at home on one day and then play on the road in the next game, but they have shown they can beat anyone here.

Wins over the likes of the Miami Heat and Utah Jazz at home will give Indiana plenty of confidence, but during the same portion of the season they have been beaten at the Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics which has kept the Pacers looking over their shoulders when it comes to their Play Off place.

Now they have to host a tough Denver Nuggets team who have just crushed the Cleveland Cavaliers at home and are hanging on to a Play Off spot in the Western Conference despite the likes of Portland, Dallas and New Orleans closing in on them. It is the Nuggets who will have the edge on the boards again with their size, and they have shot the ball very efficiently of late.

However it is the Denver Defense which can be a problem and it will be up to the Indiana Pacers to expose those problems. The Nuggets do have a solid 4-1 record against the spread in their last five games in Indiana, but the Pacers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games overall and have gone 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games following a loss.

On the other hand Denver have not been able to back up wins as effectively as they like as they have gone 4-9 against the spread in their last thirteen games following a win. In what will likely be a close game, Indiana can continue riding their home form to another win which can keep them clear of the chasing pack in the Eastern Conference and I will back them to cover the spread.


Atlanta Hawks @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: There is every chance that the Milwaukee Bucks could finish as high as Number 5 in the Eastern Conference after coming through a sticky patch in their season where they looked like they might fail to make the Play Offs. No one in Milwaukee is going to booking their Play Off hotels just yet though as they are only 2.5 games clear of the Number 9 position in the Conference, but Milwaukee are playing with momentum.

It had looked like a season where the Atlanta Hawks could be looking for home court advantage at least through the First Round of the Play Offs, but they have struggled with their consistency. A run of five consecutive losses has put their Number 5 Seed in the Eastern Conference under threat and there is still a possibility that the Hawks will miss out completely if they don't reverse form soon.

This is a huge test for the Hawks who blew a big lead against the Washington Wizards last time out and they had previously been beaten by large margins against Memphis, Portland and Charlotte. The absence of Paul Millsap has meant Atlanta have struggled for consistent scoring in recent games and that could be a big problem against the Offensive minded Milwaukee Bucks.

Millsap's absence has also seen the Hawks begin to struggle on the boards and they are facing a Milwaukee team who have been strong at home against teams with a winning record. The Hawks have dominated the recent series between these teams, but Milwaukee won't have too many better chances to snap that run and move level with the Hawks in the standings.

Milwaukee have covered in their last five home games and even my concern about coming off a long road trip has been lessened by the fact the Bucks are 19-7 against the spread in their last twenty-six home games following a road trip of seven or more days. The Hawks have just been struggling at the moment and I will back the home team to cover.


New Orleans Pelicans @ Houston Rockets Pick: Both the New Orleans Pelicans and the Houston Rockets should be well rested for this regular season game which is much more important to the road team than the Rockets. With just eleven games left to play, it is almost certain the Houston Rockets are going to finish with the Number 3 Seed in the Western Conference, while the New Orleans Pelicans are trying desperately to close the 4 game gap between themselves and Number 8 Seed Denver Nuggets in the West.

That is a gap that is likely too much to bridge with games running out, but the Pelicans have given themselves a chance by winning three games in a row. They have begun to understand what they want to do on the court with DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis, although we may not see the best of the Pelicans until next season.

This is a very difficult game for the Pelicans against a Houston team who have won five of their last six games and who have one of the most high-powered Offenses in the NBA. Stopping the Houston Rockets scoring points is very difficult, but the Rockets Defensive numbers have not been that great of late and that gives the Pelicans a chance to cover with the number of points they are getting in this one.

New Orleans can challenge Houston on the boards and the Pelicans have shown some tough Defensive schemes of late, although I am not sure they have enough to win the game outright. They are still getting a lot of points though and New Orleans are 6-1 against the spread when given between 7 and 9.5 points as the underdog. At the same time Houston are 2-10 against the spread when favoured by between 7 and 9.5 points.

The underdog is 18-8-1 against the spread in the last twenty-seven games in this series and Houston are 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games against a team with a losing record on the road. The Rockets are also 6-13 against the spread in their last nineteen games following a win and I am going to back the road underdog to cover.


Saturday 25th March
This has been a tough week with some late baskets going against the picks, the New Orleans Pelicans failing to cover with the points in the final two minutes the latest in that regard. That has made it a tough month, but there are still a few days to build some momentum to take into the final couple of weeks of the regular season and the Play Offs.

Utah Jazz @ LA Clippers Pick: There are 2.5 games between the Number 4 Seed Utah Jazz and the Number 6 Seed Oklahoma City Thunder as the Western Conference boils down towards the end of the season. Between those teams are the LA Clippers who are a game behind the Utah Jazz with a chance to move above them in the standings with a win on Saturday.

The Clippers saw their three game winning run come to an end in disappointing fashion as they blew a late lead against the Dallas Mavericks, but the focus will be on improving for this game. They are facing a Utah team who have recently snapped a losing run of their own, but there is a feeling these teams might be trending in opposite directions.

A problem for Utah going forward will be finding the consistent Offensive threat to challenge the very best teams in the Western Conference. Earning home court advantage in the First Round is going to be key for their chances too, but this isn't the best match up for them as the Clippers have a high powered Offense which is getting healthier by the game.

A big key for the Clippers is they are able to match Utah on the boards and that takes away some of the big advantages the Jazz have over many teams. The LA Clippers have won two of the three previous games between these teams and can secure the tie-breaker with another win as well as being able to get some revenge for a defeat to Utah earlier this month.

Utah have a poor 6-11 record against the spread in their road games against a team with a winning record this season and they are 3-11 against the spread when they are set as an underdog getting less than 8 points. With home advantage in this one, I am looking for the LA Clippers to bounce back in this one and record a valuable win which gives them the inside track to the Number 4 Seed in the Western Conference.


Toronto Raptors @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: This is a big game for the Toronto Raptors and the Dallas Mavericks as both are very keen on picking up another win on the road to their Play Off ambitions. The Raptors are almost certainly assured of at least the Number 4 Seed in the Eastern Conference, but they have every chance of overturning the Washington Wizards for the Number 3 Seed and arguably an easier First Round Play Off series.

For the Dallas Mavericks it is all about trying to chase down the Denver Nuggets for the Number 8 Seed in the Western Conference, but that looks to be a losing battle. There are still 3.5 games between those teams, but the Nuggets are continuing to put the big wins together and that is keeping them clear of the Mavericks.

Rick Carlisle has made some changes to his starting line up with the preparation for next season beginning already. That means extended minutes for the likes of Noel Nerlens and Seth Curry which is coupled with Dallas trying to close the gap on the Play Off places.

It is the Mavericks who have just been a little inconsistent of late while the Toronto Raptors have won four in a row in the absence of Kyle Lowry and have some momentum behind them. The Raptors have been a little better at both ends of the court and I think that might give them the edge in this one as they look to keep the momentum going from their recent wins.

The superior Toronto size is going to give them a real edge on the rebounding and the Raptors are 10-5 against the spread when set as an underdog of less than 6 points. I like the fact the Raptors are going to get the points in this one and I do think Toronto can win this one outright, but I will take the points on offer.


Minnesota Timberwolves @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: The Minnesota Timberwolves are almost certainly out of Play Off contention and suffered a heartbreaking overtime loss on Friday night. Games are running down in the regular season and the Timberwolves might be focussing on improving draft picks.

They head to the Portland Trail Blazers on Saturday night with the hosts trying to close on the Number 8 Seed Denver Nuggets.

The momentum is with the Trail Blazers who have been shooting the ball efficiently while playing some stellar Defense in recent games. The expectation is Portland will be able to expose the vulnerabilities in the Minnesota Defensive unit who have allowed teams to shoot at 53% over the last 5 games. With Damien Lillard and CJ McCollum in the back court, the Trail Blazers should be able to continue hitting the 3 point shot at their current 41% they have shown in recent games.

Recent games have seen Portland display their size around the boards and that could be a real advantage if the Minnesota Timberwolves are displaying some fatigue from playing on Friday night. They do have a decent record on a back to back, but a long game with the Lakers and then having to travel here is a tough ask for a team who are no longer in Play Off contention.

Minnesota are 2-6-1 against the spread in their last nine games in Portland and they have not covered in any of their last five games on the road overall. I will look for the Timberwolves to show the effects of an overtime game and the Portland Trail Blazers to pull away for an important win in the second half.


Sunday 26th March
Saturday was a better day for the NBA Picks with all three made coming back as winners and I am looking for Sunday to keep that trend going and put a significant dent into what has been a difficult week and a difficult month.

The games are all very important at the moment with teams beginning to run out of chances to make the Play Offs, while the Seeding does matter to teams more than they like to admit.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers Pick: The Indiana Pacers are trying to keep themselves together, but there are some wear and tear at the seams of this team as they try and book a Play Off place. That is far from an easy task for the Pacers who have lacked consistency down the stretch and they are just 2.5 games clear of the Chicago Bulls and the Detroit Pistons on the outside of the top eight in the Eastern Conference.

The misfiring of the Bulls and Pistons has eased some of the pressure on the Pacers, but they won't want to back their way into the post-season, while there is still a chance for Indiana to finish higher up the standings and avoid the likes of Boston and Cleveland in the First Round.

They have at least been playing better at home before the shellacking at the hands of the Denver Nuggets last time out. Indiana can't afford to drop another game here and at least face the Philadelphia 76ers who are heading towards the lottery again, but in a much more positive frame of mind than they have in recent seasons with plenty of positives to take away from the 2016/17 season.

The 76ers are still fighting hard despite the season coming to an end and that is highlighted by their 8-1 record against the spread over their last nine games. Even teams chasing Play Off spots have been surprised by the Philadelphia 76ers in recent games and the Pacers are not playing well enough to be laying as many points as they are being asked to.

Indiana are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against a team with a winning record and they are 2-2 against the spread when favoured by 8 or more points this season. Things seem a little uncertain inside and out the Indiana Pacers locker room at the moment and I will take the points with the 76ers.


Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Pick: There are a couple of concerns that a stomach bug has been working its way through the Boston Celtics roster, but this is a team that is firing on all cylinders heading into the post-season. They have every chance of finishing with the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference as the Celtics are 0.5 games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers, but also keeping an eye out on the Washington Wizards and Toronto Raptors who have continued piling up the wins.

It is an important game for the Miami Heat too who are desperate to get into the Play Offs after a terrible start to the season has been replaced with win after win over the last three months. The Heat might only be 1.5 games ahead of both the Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons, but they have bigger ambitions with just 2 games between the Heat and the Number 5 Seed in the Eastern Conference.

The Celtics have shown a little more consistency of late which makes them the favourites in this one, while they are at home and Hassan Whiteside may be limited for the Miami Heat. That will mean Boston could have the edge on the rebounding and the Celtics are playing hard Defensively which is keeping them moving in a positive direction.

They haven't been perfect Defensively, but I expect Boston to make enough plays to move clear of the Heat in this one and improve their 15-5 record against the spread from the last twenty games where they have hosted the Miami Heat.

I like the fact that the Celtics have a 17-10 record against the spread when favoured between 4 and 7.5 points this season and I do think they are catching the Heat at the right time. With Whiteside a little hurt, Boston should have enough of an edge around both boards and Miami may just raise the white flag in anticipation of the big game at Detroit in a couple of days time.


New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets Pick: The Denver Nuggets have knocked off the likes of the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Indiana Pacers over the last week which has helped keeping them in front of the chasing pack in the Western Conference. They have yet to see off the Portland Trail Blazers, but the New Orleans Pelicans look to have run their course for the season.

The Pelicans have been preparing for next season as soon as they traded for DeMarcus Cousins and there are some clear signs Cousins and Anthony Davis are getting on the same page. They have been playing well in recent games and they will be a challenge for the Denver Nuggets.

However Denver have plenty of size to match the New Orleans Pelicans on the boards and they have been playing aggressively Offensively which has seen the Nuggets put opponents under pressure. That aggressiveness is likely to be a key factor for the Nuggets in this one and I think the return of the full rotation will allow them to play at a tempo which will make it difficult for any team heading to the altitude of Colorado in the coming weeks.

I am expecting New Orleans to have their successes in this one too as the Nuggets Defense has not been as strong as they would like. That makes the points appealing, but Denver are a team with good form and motivation behind them and they are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight home games against the Pelicans.

Denver are 8-3 against the spread in their last eleven games hosting a team with a losing record and I am going to look for the Nuggets to make enough plays to see off a challenging team and stay ahead of the Trail Blazers who are heading to the LA Lakers on the same night.

MY PICKS: 21/03 Memphis Grizzlies + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
21/03 Golden State Warriors - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
21/03 Portland Trail Blazers - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
22/03 Indiana Pacers + 8 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
22/03 Washington Wizards - 7 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
22/03 Cleveland Cavaliers - 3 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
22/03 New York Knicks + 12 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
23/03 Toronto Raptors + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
23/03 LA Clippers - 4 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
23/03 San Antonio Spurs - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
24/03 Cleveland Cavaliers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
24/03 Indiana Pacers - 2 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
24/03 Milwaukee Bucks - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
24/03 New Orleans Pelicans + 7 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
25/03 LA Clippers - 5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
25/03 Toronto Raptors + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
25/03 Portland Trail Blazers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
26/03 Philadelphia 76ers + 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
26/03 Boston Celtics - 6 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
26/03 Denver Nuggets - 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

March 20-26 Update: 7-13, - 6.47 Units
March 13-19 Final: 5-6, - 1.32 Units
March 6-12 Final: 7-8-1, - 1.51 Units
March 1-5 Final: 4-5, - 1.28 Units

March Update: 16-19-1, - 4.11 Units
February Final: 32-20-3, + 9.69 Units
January Final: 26-28-1, - 4 Units
December Final: 19-23, - 5.51 Units
November Final: 24-25-1, - 2.92 Units
October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units

Season 2017: 109-105-5, + 1.05 Units

Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units

Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units

Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units

Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units

Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units