The most frustrating element of this tournament for me so far is catching players when they are ill/injured which flares up in matches despite being in a strong position.
It happened again on Day 8 and this has been the worst Grand Slam performance I have had by a long, long way. Sometimes it is the way it goes and I hope this is the low point of the 2016 season for the tennis picks which had opened the new season pretty effectively.
There is some good news and that is four out of four of the outright picks remain on course.
If those can all 'win', it will change the feeling coming out of the tournament, but there is still some way to go before that happens and I will just keep my fingers crossed.
The Quarter Final line up has been completed in both Men's and Women's draws and I think the business end of the Australian Open looks in good shape.
We have some top matches to look forward to, but the potential Finals that we are going to see from here look like they could be a lot of fun to watch. None of the players will be looking beyond the next match up on their schedule, but us fans can begin to get excited about the matches that have already been set and those that are set to go.
Roger Federer Win 3-1 v Tomas Berdych: Roger Federer might have won all three matches against Tomas Berdych very easily in 2015, winning each without dropping a set and losing just sixteen games in six sets played.
That is part of the reason Federer is a big favourite to win this match and move into the Semi Final as well as the stunning performance he produced against David Goffin. With Tomas Berdych needing four sets to see off Nick Kyrgios and five sets to see off Roberto Bautista Agut, the layers are convinced Federer wins this one fairly easily, although I am not so sure it will be that straight-forward.
First off Berdych has enjoyed playing Federer in Grand Slams, winning their last two meetings at this level and before that having a 2-0 lead here at the Australian Open before going down in five sets. Surprisingly this is the first time they are playing in a Grand Slam since the US Open in 2012, but the courts on the Rod Laver Arena might help Berdych get the most out of his game as he did when demolishing Rafael Nadal at this stage last season.
The match up with Federer is one that Berdych has to be confident about if he is serving well and not making a host of unforced errors off the forehand. I expect that will help him give Federer plenty of problems to solve, but I do think the World Number 3 will eventually solve those and get away from Berdych.
If this is ended in straight sets I will be shocked, but Federer is good enough to knuckle down and make enough plays to win in four and potentially set up a blockbuster Semi Final against Novak Djokovic.
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Kei Nishikori: The big question mark surrounding Novak Djokovic is how he is going to be feeling after being pushed to five sets by Gilles Simon in the Fourth Round. However he managed to do the same against Kevin Anderson at Wimbledon last year before going on to win that tournament and it is hard to see Novak Djokovic putting together back to back erratic performances at the Grand Slam level.
I think the other professionals on Tour have made it clear to the media that Simon is one of these frustrating figures on the Tour that can make anyone look bad. He is a hard worker who will use a lot of junk tennis to exploit errors and really Simon is one of the few that is very effective at playing that style.
Kei Nishikori will work hard on the court and his movement will mean he can get a lot of balls back in play, but he is someone that will want to hit his own winners so that is a clear difference between the Japanese star and Simon. He was very good in his win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga but has struggled when playing Novak Djokovic since shocking him in the US Open Semi Final of 2014.
Many of those sets have seen Novak Djokovic knuckle down and earn double breaks of serve to pull away and I think he will be able to do something similar in this one. I wouldn't be surprised if Nishikori stole a set when he hits a purple patch, but Djokovic will pressure him a lot on the return of serve and I think that will help him get enough games on the board to cover this number in a winning effort.
The couple of days of rest is going to be massive for Djokovic who also has the benefit of playing in a night session before on the Rod Laver Arena. He has recovered from five setters and produced his best before and I think Djokovic covers this number in a three or four set win.
Agnieszka Radwanska-Carla Suarez Navarro Over 20.5 games: I was a little surprised that Agnieszka Radwanska has been set as a fairly big favourite to beat Carla Suarez Navarro in this match. It has all the hallmarks of a match that is potentially going to need three sets to decide which of the players is moving through to the Semi Final with neither player having a dominant serve and there likely going to be a number of breaks of serve both ways.
Both players had to dig deep to get through their Fourth Round matches and there are some similarities with the way both will look to play. Both Radwanska and Suarez Navarro have decent movement around the court with the former having a bit more variation in her game, while Suarez Navarro has the stand out shot from the backhand wing.
The last two matches between these players have gone the distance including at the Miami Masters last season and I think there will be some nerves in this one. Radwanska has opened the season in the better form with the set dropped in the Fourth Round the first one she has dropped in the 2016 season, but Suarez Navarro is capable of digging deep and battling back even when she falls behind.
It has all the makings of a tight couple of sets that sees both players take one and the decider could really go either way so backing this match to surpass the total games being asked is the call.
Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Maria Sharapova: I have to give Maria Sharapova some credit- most players who have lost seventeen times in a row to an opponent might feel a little intimidated by facing that player, but Sharapova is said to be the one player that really doesn't take too much notice.
I don't know if I would be able to do that if I am being perfectly honest, but Sharapova will come into this Quarter Final against Serena Williams truly expecting a different result than what we have become accustomed to. I am sure Sharapova believes, but seventeen losses in a row is hard to ignore.
That includes a victory for Serena Williams in the Australian Open Final last year when Sharapova somehow hung on to take the second set into the tie-breaker. However, that match wasn't as close as the 63, 76 scoreline would suggest and it was only Sharapova's heart that kept her in a match where she was constantly under pressure from Serena's power and accuracy.
Since 2011, Serena Williams would be 10-2 in matches against Sharapova when it comes to covering what looks a big number on paper. The match up is a good one for Williams because Sharapova doesn't serve as consistently as she does and doesn't have the power to really match her, but that is the only real plan in her game.
Watch out for Sharapova throwing in a few more drop shots in this one as something she has been working on in the off-season, but she has to raise her performance by three or four levels from her Fourth Round win to make this competitive. If Williams keeps serving as well as she has in this tournament, I think Sharapova will be broken down by the mental pressure of trying to stay in the match and I believe the Number 1 Seed wins this one 63, 64.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer Win 3-1 @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska-Carla Suarez Navarro Over 20.5 Total Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 23-41, - 36.34 Units (124 Units Staked, - 29.30% Yield)
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Monday, 25 January 2016
Sunday, 24 January 2016
Australian Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2016 (January 25th)
We are now getting into the business end of the first Grand Slam of the season as half of the Quarter Final line up for both Men's and Women's draws were put together on Sunday.
The second halves will be decided on Monday and this is the time of a tournament when the big matches start being put together.
It has been a tough tournament for predictions with many surprises through the last eight days and some of the well known players perhaps a little undercooked for a run. However, the cream tends to rise to the top and it is no surprise that the likes of Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are into the last eight.
While my picks have had a poor time of things in a Grand Slam, I have at least kept all of the outright picks intact through to this point.
Both Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic remain the favourites to win the respective titles, while backing Roger Federer to win his Quarter is a far shorter price now than it was when the tournament opened.
You have to also like the chances of Victoria Azarenka coming through the bottom half of the draw with the form she has displayed to open 2016, but that feels 'further' away with her having to negotiate her Fourth Round match on Monday.
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 sets v Milos Raonic: The head to head between Stan Wawrinka and Milos Raonic has been dominated by the former, although some will point out that Raonic won their most recent match in an exhibition tournament to open the new season.
However, I am with Bernard Tomic in saying that exhibition matches are not the same as winning a 'real' tournament match so there are some mental demons for Raonic to work against. He has lost all four matches against Wawrinka and Raonic has failed to take a set in recent matches and has seen his sequence extended to eight sets lost to Wawrinka in a row.
The bigger worry for Raonic has to be the fact he has lost all five previous tie-breakers the pair have played against one another, an area where you think he would be most dangerous. The quicker courts on the main show courts in Melbourne will likely mean one or two tie-breakers in this one with both Raonic and Wawrinka able to produce big serves and heavy groundstrokes.
I have to say that Raonic has looked to improve his return game this season and has played well to win in Brisbane so confidence has to be high. However, he looked a little ropey in his win over Tommy Robredo and Wawrinka loves the courts here and has looked like a very dangerous contender to add to his two Grand Slam wins.
It would be something of a surprise to me if Wawrinka was not able to get enough balls into play to find his way into the Quarter Final from a match up he has seemingly enjoyed. Maybe Milos Raonic can win his first set against Wawrinka since 2012, but I like Wawrinka coming through in either three or four sets.
Bernard Tomic + 2.5 sets v Andy Murray: With Lleyton Hewitt officially retired, the gap at the top of Australian tennis is looking to be filled by the next generation with Nick Kyrgios the most likely to be their next Grand Slam Champion. However, don't tell Bernard Tomic that after he was critical of Roger Federer's comments about his chances of reaching the top 10 of the World Rankings.
I do think Tomic has been inspired by the younger Australian players coming up behind him, and this is a big year for him to take the next step in his career. There has always been an element of Tomic perhaps not giving his all to his craft to improve, but he has looked a more aggressive player this week and will enjoy the faster courts on the Rod Laver Arena.
Even with that in mind, Tomic is still a healthy underdog to beat the Number 2 player in the world in Andy Murray, especially the way the latter has been playing this week. One factor that potentially is in play is how Murray is feeling after his father-in-law collapsed a couple of days ago, but Nigel Sears seems to be over the worst so the British player can concentrate on his game.
The match up has been a good one for Murray in the past having won all three matches and all seven sets against Tomic. That includes a straight sets win in the Davis Cup in Britain, but playing on hostile territory is a different test for Murray, while Tomic suggested the courts in the Davis Cup were too slow for him and being able to be as aggressive as he likes.
Tomic will need to serve well to have any chance because he potentially will have a couple of chances to break the Murray serve in each set. With the way the Australian is playing and with the support behind him, I would be surprised if he crumbled to a straight sets loss and I think the odds against quote with him getting this much of a head start is hard to ignore.
David Ferrer - 1.5 sets v John Isner: I don't believe it is much of a surprise that David Ferrer has such a strong record against John Isner. We all know the American has a huge serve, but you would think that Ferrer becomes a significant favourite in any rally that goes into the five plus shot territory.
That is likely to be the case again on Monday in this Fourth Round match, especially with Ferrer looking in decent form to come through his first three matches without losing a set. He was beaten by Jack Sock in Auckland last week from which Isner can draw some confidence, but on the the hand the latter was beaten by Roberto Bautista Agut at the same event, a player with a similar mindset as Ferrer.
The mental edge is most definitely with Ferrer having last lost to Isner in 2011 and winning six of seven previous matches against him including all three since that loss. One issue is that Ferrer has lost three tie-breakers in a row to Isner which is a concern for me as the quicker courts will likely see us get to at least one and possibly two of those.
I do think Ferrer is capable of getting enough balls in play to give Isner troubles, although the American can be dangerous if he is able to close the net and pressure Ferrer. It's just hard for Isner to do that over three or four hours like he might need to do against a terrier like Ferrer who will chase down everything and drag Isner into some long rallies.
Ferrer is 7-2 in the last nine sets played by these two- the speedy courts will help Isner some, but I think Ferrer moves into the Quarter Final with a three or four set win.
Gael Monfils - 5.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: When the draw was made, if you were to have asked 100 people to name the eight Quarter Finalists, I am not sure many would have picked Gael Monfils or Andrey Kuznetsov to be one of those. However these are the two players that have taken advantage of Rafael Nadal's surprise exit in the First Round and have been given a big opportunity to get into a Grand Slam Quarter Final.
This is a more familiar position for Gael Monfils who has played well this week and quietly made his way through the draw. Injuries and a loss of form have hurt Monfils through his career and I do think he is going to fail to reach the potential heights that many thought he might have had.
The Frenchman might not have had an 'easier' path through to a Fourth Round in a Slam and if he wins this one Monfils will yet to have really been tested. But he won't be worried about that and I do think he will have too much for Kuznetsov who has played well to get into the Fourth Round with just one set dropped.
Kuznetsov has already surpassed his previous best result at a Grand Slam and he has talent as shown by winning the Junior title at Wimbledon. He has yet to really show that consistently on the main Tour and I think someone like Monfils can frustrate him in this one and eventually wear him down.
It was Monfils who won their two matches in 2015 and he has been getting stronger in his matches after relatively slow starts. He can't afford to make one here as it will give Kuznetsov plenty of confidence, but I think Monfils may come through 76, 64, 63 in this one.
Ekaterina Makarova - 2.5 games v Johanna Konta: This has been another special Grand Slam for Johanna Konta who is well on the way to earning a Seeding by the time Wimbledon rolls around. She now has a second opportunity in the space of a few months to become the first British female player to reach the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam in over thirty years, but once again is facing a formidable left-hander.
At the US Open it was Petra Kvitova who proved too strong for Konta in straight sets, but the latter did anything but disgrace herself in that match which was competitive. This time she faces Ekaterina Makarova who has loved playing in Melbourne in her career and who has put together three convincing wins to move into the Fourth Round again.
The mental aspect might edge towards Konta having beaten Makarova last year on the grass of Eastbourne, but this is a different challenge on courts the latter enjoys. The Russian was serving very big in her win over Karolina Pliskova and her best shot instinctively attacks the Konta forehand which I believe is her weaker wing.
I have so much time for Konta and I really think she is capable of producing some great tennis no matter who is standing on the other side of the court. However, I think her run has been helped by playing opponents who have perhaps not been at 100% and she has to raise her game significantly to win this one.
It will be tight and competitive, but ultimately I think Makarova is too good on the day and I like her to progress 64, 64 and move into another Melbourne Quarter Final.
Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Shuai Zhang: The second night match looks a very good one for the neutrals as the underdog story of Shuai Zhang takes on the Semi Finalist from twelve months ago in Madison Keys.
Not many are going to get bored of listening to Zhang's story and her run to the Fourth Round which began in the Qualifiers. She can't be accused of earning a fortunate draw as Zhang beat the World Number 2 in Simona Halep, the Hobart Champion Alize Cornet and then demolished Varvara Lepchenko, another Seed.
The confidence is in such a high place and she has become the latest player coming out of left field to perform wonders at the Australian Open. The fact Zhang is also 2-2 in the head to head with Madison Keys won't reduce that confidence but might actually give her the belief she can win this match, even if the last match was two years ago.
Before this tournament, I wouldn't have said there had been a big improvement in Zhang's game but Madison Keys had improved measurably from that time. However her confidence makes her dangerous and Keys will have to be aware of the player on the other side of the net.
Keys has the big game to blow her off if she is on, but that hasn't always been the case with her bludgeoning style a hindrance if the margins are not quite where they are expected to be. I think the courts suit Keys though and I think she is the better player, but I appreciate the Zhang run although I expect it to end with a 63, 64 defeat on Monday.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic + 2.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 22-36, - 28.34 Units (112 Units Staked, - 25.30% Yield)
The second halves will be decided on Monday and this is the time of a tournament when the big matches start being put together.
It has been a tough tournament for predictions with many surprises through the last eight days and some of the well known players perhaps a little undercooked for a run. However, the cream tends to rise to the top and it is no surprise that the likes of Serena Williams, Maria Sharapova, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer are into the last eight.
While my picks have had a poor time of things in a Grand Slam, I have at least kept all of the outright picks intact through to this point.
Both Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic remain the favourites to win the respective titles, while backing Roger Federer to win his Quarter is a far shorter price now than it was when the tournament opened.
You have to also like the chances of Victoria Azarenka coming through the bottom half of the draw with the form she has displayed to open 2016, but that feels 'further' away with her having to negotiate her Fourth Round match on Monday.
Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 sets v Milos Raonic: The head to head between Stan Wawrinka and Milos Raonic has been dominated by the former, although some will point out that Raonic won their most recent match in an exhibition tournament to open the new season.
However, I am with Bernard Tomic in saying that exhibition matches are not the same as winning a 'real' tournament match so there are some mental demons for Raonic to work against. He has lost all four matches against Wawrinka and Raonic has failed to take a set in recent matches and has seen his sequence extended to eight sets lost to Wawrinka in a row.
The bigger worry for Raonic has to be the fact he has lost all five previous tie-breakers the pair have played against one another, an area where you think he would be most dangerous. The quicker courts on the main show courts in Melbourne will likely mean one or two tie-breakers in this one with both Raonic and Wawrinka able to produce big serves and heavy groundstrokes.
I have to say that Raonic has looked to improve his return game this season and has played well to win in Brisbane so confidence has to be high. However, he looked a little ropey in his win over Tommy Robredo and Wawrinka loves the courts here and has looked like a very dangerous contender to add to his two Grand Slam wins.
It would be something of a surprise to me if Wawrinka was not able to get enough balls into play to find his way into the Quarter Final from a match up he has seemingly enjoyed. Maybe Milos Raonic can win his first set against Wawrinka since 2012, but I like Wawrinka coming through in either three or four sets.
Bernard Tomic + 2.5 sets v Andy Murray: With Lleyton Hewitt officially retired, the gap at the top of Australian tennis is looking to be filled by the next generation with Nick Kyrgios the most likely to be their next Grand Slam Champion. However, don't tell Bernard Tomic that after he was critical of Roger Federer's comments about his chances of reaching the top 10 of the World Rankings.
I do think Tomic has been inspired by the younger Australian players coming up behind him, and this is a big year for him to take the next step in his career. There has always been an element of Tomic perhaps not giving his all to his craft to improve, but he has looked a more aggressive player this week and will enjoy the faster courts on the Rod Laver Arena.
Even with that in mind, Tomic is still a healthy underdog to beat the Number 2 player in the world in Andy Murray, especially the way the latter has been playing this week. One factor that potentially is in play is how Murray is feeling after his father-in-law collapsed a couple of days ago, but Nigel Sears seems to be over the worst so the British player can concentrate on his game.
The match up has been a good one for Murray in the past having won all three matches and all seven sets against Tomic. That includes a straight sets win in the Davis Cup in Britain, but playing on hostile territory is a different test for Murray, while Tomic suggested the courts in the Davis Cup were too slow for him and being able to be as aggressive as he likes.
Tomic will need to serve well to have any chance because he potentially will have a couple of chances to break the Murray serve in each set. With the way the Australian is playing and with the support behind him, I would be surprised if he crumbled to a straight sets loss and I think the odds against quote with him getting this much of a head start is hard to ignore.
David Ferrer - 1.5 sets v John Isner: I don't believe it is much of a surprise that David Ferrer has such a strong record against John Isner. We all know the American has a huge serve, but you would think that Ferrer becomes a significant favourite in any rally that goes into the five plus shot territory.
That is likely to be the case again on Monday in this Fourth Round match, especially with Ferrer looking in decent form to come through his first three matches without losing a set. He was beaten by Jack Sock in Auckland last week from which Isner can draw some confidence, but on the the hand the latter was beaten by Roberto Bautista Agut at the same event, a player with a similar mindset as Ferrer.
The mental edge is most definitely with Ferrer having last lost to Isner in 2011 and winning six of seven previous matches against him including all three since that loss. One issue is that Ferrer has lost three tie-breakers in a row to Isner which is a concern for me as the quicker courts will likely see us get to at least one and possibly two of those.
I do think Ferrer is capable of getting enough balls in play to give Isner troubles, although the American can be dangerous if he is able to close the net and pressure Ferrer. It's just hard for Isner to do that over three or four hours like he might need to do against a terrier like Ferrer who will chase down everything and drag Isner into some long rallies.
Ferrer is 7-2 in the last nine sets played by these two- the speedy courts will help Isner some, but I think Ferrer moves into the Quarter Final with a three or four set win.
Gael Monfils - 5.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: When the draw was made, if you were to have asked 100 people to name the eight Quarter Finalists, I am not sure many would have picked Gael Monfils or Andrey Kuznetsov to be one of those. However these are the two players that have taken advantage of Rafael Nadal's surprise exit in the First Round and have been given a big opportunity to get into a Grand Slam Quarter Final.
This is a more familiar position for Gael Monfils who has played well this week and quietly made his way through the draw. Injuries and a loss of form have hurt Monfils through his career and I do think he is going to fail to reach the potential heights that many thought he might have had.
The Frenchman might not have had an 'easier' path through to a Fourth Round in a Slam and if he wins this one Monfils will yet to have really been tested. But he won't be worried about that and I do think he will have too much for Kuznetsov who has played well to get into the Fourth Round with just one set dropped.
Kuznetsov has already surpassed his previous best result at a Grand Slam and he has talent as shown by winning the Junior title at Wimbledon. He has yet to really show that consistently on the main Tour and I think someone like Monfils can frustrate him in this one and eventually wear him down.
It was Monfils who won their two matches in 2015 and he has been getting stronger in his matches after relatively slow starts. He can't afford to make one here as it will give Kuznetsov plenty of confidence, but I think Monfils may come through 76, 64, 63 in this one.
Ekaterina Makarova - 2.5 games v Johanna Konta: This has been another special Grand Slam for Johanna Konta who is well on the way to earning a Seeding by the time Wimbledon rolls around. She now has a second opportunity in the space of a few months to become the first British female player to reach the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam in over thirty years, but once again is facing a formidable left-hander.
At the US Open it was Petra Kvitova who proved too strong for Konta in straight sets, but the latter did anything but disgrace herself in that match which was competitive. This time she faces Ekaterina Makarova who has loved playing in Melbourne in her career and who has put together three convincing wins to move into the Fourth Round again.
The mental aspect might edge towards Konta having beaten Makarova last year on the grass of Eastbourne, but this is a different challenge on courts the latter enjoys. The Russian was serving very big in her win over Karolina Pliskova and her best shot instinctively attacks the Konta forehand which I believe is her weaker wing.
I have so much time for Konta and I really think she is capable of producing some great tennis no matter who is standing on the other side of the court. However, I think her run has been helped by playing opponents who have perhaps not been at 100% and she has to raise her game significantly to win this one.
It will be tight and competitive, but ultimately I think Makarova is too good on the day and I like her to progress 64, 64 and move into another Melbourne Quarter Final.
Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Shuai Zhang: The second night match looks a very good one for the neutrals as the underdog story of Shuai Zhang takes on the Semi Finalist from twelve months ago in Madison Keys.
Not many are going to get bored of listening to Zhang's story and her run to the Fourth Round which began in the Qualifiers. She can't be accused of earning a fortunate draw as Zhang beat the World Number 2 in Simona Halep, the Hobart Champion Alize Cornet and then demolished Varvara Lepchenko, another Seed.
The confidence is in such a high place and she has become the latest player coming out of left field to perform wonders at the Australian Open. The fact Zhang is also 2-2 in the head to head with Madison Keys won't reduce that confidence but might actually give her the belief she can win this match, even if the last match was two years ago.
Before this tournament, I wouldn't have said there had been a big improvement in Zhang's game but Madison Keys had improved measurably from that time. However her confidence makes her dangerous and Keys will have to be aware of the player on the other side of the net.
Keys has the big game to blow her off if she is on, but that hasn't always been the case with her bludgeoning style a hindrance if the margins are not quite where they are expected to be. I think the courts suit Keys though and I think she is the better player, but I appreciate the Zhang run although I expect it to end with a 63, 64 defeat on Monday.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic + 2.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 22-36, - 28.34 Units (112 Units Staked, - 25.30% Yield)
Saturday, 23 January 2016
Australian Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2016 (January 24th)
It has been a busy day which means the picks for Day 7 at the Australian Open are coming out a little later than anticipated. I will have Day 8 picks out much earlier on Sunday, but for now let us get on with the picks as the Fourth Round commences in the second week of this Grand Slam.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga-Kei Nishikori Under 41.5 Total Games: These two players are very familiar with one another and even a five set match at the Australian Open in 2012 failed to get over this number of games.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was beaten in that match four years ago, but he did beat Kei Nishikori in five sets last year at the French Open and even that match barely went over this number of games.
The feeling is that this would finish under this number of total games as long as one of these players can win this one in three or four sets. My feeling is that Tsonga is going to have the edge by being in a better place from a mental point of view, but I don't want to underestimate Kei Nishikori who has been in strong form this week.
Both players will have their chances to break serve and I will be looking for one of them to get control of the match and prevent this going into yet another decider between them at Grand Slam level.
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: This has been a special week for Roberto Bautista Agut as he has backed up his title win in Auckland with three wins to get into the Fourth Round. It has been particularly impressive when you think the Spaniard has moved through the first two Rounds in five sets, but still looked physically strong in his win over Marin Cilic.
It will need another big effort from Bautista Agut to see off Tomas Berdych who has to be confident he can make another Quarter Final here in Australia. Berdych held himself together for just long enough to see off Nick Kyrgios in the Third Round and that should give him momentum although he has to be careful against Bautista Agut who has frustrated him in the past.
A lot of this match will be down to how well Tomas Berdych serves- if he serves well he will put his opponent under significant pressure and there is no doubting that Berdych will have his chances to break serve.
I think Berdych is in solid enough form to think he will produce a solid serving day and wear down Bautista Agut in a straight sets win which sees him cover this number.
Roger Federer - 7.5 games v David Goffin: There is no doubting that the match up will be a fairly comfortable one for Roger Federer when he faces David Goffin, but that doesn't mean he will win it easily.
The former World Number 1 has made it clear that he needs to pick up his play if he is going to win the Australian Open this week and he can't afford a flat start like he had against Grigor Dimitrov. Even though Federer won the first set of that Third Round match, he didn't really look himself until after he had dropped the second set and can't come out in that manner again.
It was difficult to understand why Federer was feeling the way he was in that match, but Dimitrov has a little more in his game than Goffin. The Belgian player is a very talented one, but he doesn't have a lot of power which means there is no intimidating shot for Federer to face.
The serve is also very, very breakable and I think Federer will likely earn a double break at some point to move into the Quarter Final behind a 63, 64, 62 kind of win.
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games v Belinda Bencic: This might be a surprising pick as so many are out there tipping the upset, but that might put some pressure on Belinda Bencic in this one. She does look like a player with a bright future on the Tour, but Bencic has had a very difficult time when it comes to the latter stages of Grand Slams in the past and Maria Sharapova can use her experience to edge through.
It does feel that Bencic is never too far away from crumbling completely when things are not going right for her. The first serve is a decent shot, but I think Sharapova will have some joy returning the second serve and the power edge is clearly with the Russian.
I do think Bencic will have some returning success too as Sharapova struggles on that front with inconsistencies in her toss and double faults a big problem for her. However I think Sharapova will make use of her tough Third Round win to build confidence and I can see her earning a break more in each set to win this one surprisingly more comfortably than most people are expecting.
Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Margarita Gasparyan: Another bright talent on the WTA Tour in Margarita Gasparyan has a chance to perhaps cause the biggest upset of the Women's draw so far. She takes on Serena Williams this week but I am not entirely sure she is ready to get much closer than the five games she won when playing Serena at Wimbledon last summer.
It does look like Serena Williams is on a mission this week and she has been barely troubled since her First Round win over Camila Giorgi. I expect Gasparyan has played well enough to give Serena something to think about but I am not convinced she can match the power on a consistent basis which will eventually see Williams move clear.
Serena Williams has to serve well to not allow Gasparyan to get comfortable and she will get her own chances to break serve. Gasparyan has won her last two matches in straight sets, but this is a completely different challenge for her and it has all the hallmarks of a 63, 62 win for Serena Williams and potentially setting up a reunion with Maria Sharapova if my first prediction is correct too.
Carla Suarez Navarro-Daria Gavrilova Over 21.5 games: She might be one of the top ten Seeds in the draw, but there hasn't been a lot of attention given to Carla Suarez Navarro who has quietly made it through to the Fourth Round. That will change on Sunday as she takes on home favourite Daria Gavrilova in the night session.
Gavrilova might only recently have become an Australian citizen, but she has plenty of support from her new home crowd and has been made to feel very welcome. That has shown up in her performances, although a different challenge awaits from the ones she has faced in the tournament with Suarez Navarro using all her skills to get Gavrilova moving.
Prior to this, Gavrilova has faced big hitters that will make unforced errors but those might be at a premium in this one. On the other hand, neither player will comfortably get through their service games and it has all the makings of a three set classic as long as Gavrilova is able to physically last that long having won the last match 11-9 in the third.
There is no doubting that Gavrilova feels she is going to be absolutely fine and ready to compete this week and I do think a third set will be needed which makes the total games looking like they will be surpassed.
MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga-Kei Nishikori Under 41.5 Total Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro-Daria Gavrilova Over 21.5 Total Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga-Kei Nishikori Under 41.5 Total Games: These two players are very familiar with one another and even a five set match at the Australian Open in 2012 failed to get over this number of games.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was beaten in that match four years ago, but he did beat Kei Nishikori in five sets last year at the French Open and even that match barely went over this number of games.
The feeling is that this would finish under this number of total games as long as one of these players can win this one in three or four sets. My feeling is that Tsonga is going to have the edge by being in a better place from a mental point of view, but I don't want to underestimate Kei Nishikori who has been in strong form this week.
Both players will have their chances to break serve and I will be looking for one of them to get control of the match and prevent this going into yet another decider between them at Grand Slam level.
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: This has been a special week for Roberto Bautista Agut as he has backed up his title win in Auckland with three wins to get into the Fourth Round. It has been particularly impressive when you think the Spaniard has moved through the first two Rounds in five sets, but still looked physically strong in his win over Marin Cilic.
It will need another big effort from Bautista Agut to see off Tomas Berdych who has to be confident he can make another Quarter Final here in Australia. Berdych held himself together for just long enough to see off Nick Kyrgios in the Third Round and that should give him momentum although he has to be careful against Bautista Agut who has frustrated him in the past.
A lot of this match will be down to how well Tomas Berdych serves- if he serves well he will put his opponent under significant pressure and there is no doubting that Berdych will have his chances to break serve.
I think Berdych is in solid enough form to think he will produce a solid serving day and wear down Bautista Agut in a straight sets win which sees him cover this number.
Roger Federer - 7.5 games v David Goffin: There is no doubting that the match up will be a fairly comfortable one for Roger Federer when he faces David Goffin, but that doesn't mean he will win it easily.
The former World Number 1 has made it clear that he needs to pick up his play if he is going to win the Australian Open this week and he can't afford a flat start like he had against Grigor Dimitrov. Even though Federer won the first set of that Third Round match, he didn't really look himself until after he had dropped the second set and can't come out in that manner again.
It was difficult to understand why Federer was feeling the way he was in that match, but Dimitrov has a little more in his game than Goffin. The Belgian player is a very talented one, but he doesn't have a lot of power which means there is no intimidating shot for Federer to face.
The serve is also very, very breakable and I think Federer will likely earn a double break at some point to move into the Quarter Final behind a 63, 64, 62 kind of win.
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games v Belinda Bencic: This might be a surprising pick as so many are out there tipping the upset, but that might put some pressure on Belinda Bencic in this one. She does look like a player with a bright future on the Tour, but Bencic has had a very difficult time when it comes to the latter stages of Grand Slams in the past and Maria Sharapova can use her experience to edge through.
It does feel that Bencic is never too far away from crumbling completely when things are not going right for her. The first serve is a decent shot, but I think Sharapova will have some joy returning the second serve and the power edge is clearly with the Russian.
I do think Bencic will have some returning success too as Sharapova struggles on that front with inconsistencies in her toss and double faults a big problem for her. However I think Sharapova will make use of her tough Third Round win to build confidence and I can see her earning a break more in each set to win this one surprisingly more comfortably than most people are expecting.
Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Margarita Gasparyan: Another bright talent on the WTA Tour in Margarita Gasparyan has a chance to perhaps cause the biggest upset of the Women's draw so far. She takes on Serena Williams this week but I am not entirely sure she is ready to get much closer than the five games she won when playing Serena at Wimbledon last summer.
It does look like Serena Williams is on a mission this week and she has been barely troubled since her First Round win over Camila Giorgi. I expect Gasparyan has played well enough to give Serena something to think about but I am not convinced she can match the power on a consistent basis which will eventually see Williams move clear.
Serena Williams has to serve well to not allow Gasparyan to get comfortable and she will get her own chances to break serve. Gasparyan has won her last two matches in straight sets, but this is a completely different challenge for her and it has all the hallmarks of a 63, 62 win for Serena Williams and potentially setting up a reunion with Maria Sharapova if my first prediction is correct too.
Carla Suarez Navarro-Daria Gavrilova Over 21.5 games: She might be one of the top ten Seeds in the draw, but there hasn't been a lot of attention given to Carla Suarez Navarro who has quietly made it through to the Fourth Round. That will change on Sunday as she takes on home favourite Daria Gavrilova in the night session.
Gavrilova might only recently have become an Australian citizen, but she has plenty of support from her new home crowd and has been made to feel very welcome. That has shown up in her performances, although a different challenge awaits from the ones she has faced in the tournament with Suarez Navarro using all her skills to get Gavrilova moving.
Prior to this, Gavrilova has faced big hitters that will make unforced errors but those might be at a premium in this one. On the other hand, neither player will comfortably get through their service games and it has all the makings of a three set classic as long as Gavrilova is able to physically last that long having won the last match 11-9 in the third.
There is no doubting that Gavrilova feels she is going to be absolutely fine and ready to compete this week and I do think a third set will be needed which makes the total games looking like they will be surpassed.
MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga-Kei Nishikori Under 41.5 Total Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 7.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro-Daria Gavrilova Over 21.5 Total Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
NFL Conference Championship Play Off Picks 2016 (Sunday 24th January)
After a week in which all of the road teams won their Play Off games, the Divisional Round saw all of the home teams win.
You can't say there have been too many upsets in the post-season so far with all of the games being won by the favourites aside from the Green Bay win in Washington when the home team were favoured by a single point.
Now we have reached the Conference Championship Games and this time we have one small home favourite and one small home underdog as the Number 1 Seeds host the Number 2 Seeds in both the AFC and NFC Championship Games.
I have to say I am looking forward to both games and I have picks from both.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Pick: The Denver Broncos stole the Number 1 Seed in the AFC from under the New England Patriots' noses, but I don't think it was ever a big concern for Bill Belichick to host the Championship Game. That was particularly the case with the injuries New England had been dealing with in the final two weeks of the regular season, but they are a lot healthier now and will be seeking revenge for a loss here in the regular season.
It hasn't been a familiar position for the New England Patriots in recent years as their AFC Championship Games have mainly been held at home during the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. The Patriots haven't really enjoyed the last two times they have had to travel for the AFC Championship Game as they have lost both of those, ironically to the Quarter Back they will be facing on Sunday.
Peyton Manning helped the Denver Broncos beat the New England Patriots here two seasons ago and was also Quarter Back of the Indianapolis Colts when they beat New England at home in 2007. However, I don't think it is really making any grand statement to say that Manning is not the same as even the Quarter Back that played in the Championship Game two seasons ago and his career in Denver is winding down.
He would love to go out on a high, but Manning will have to be better than he was in the win over the Pittsburgh Steelers when only a busted decision from the referees helped Denver come back and win that game. Manning was somehow allowed to get up from a 'self Sack' and then throw the ball for a 40 yard gain, but it was mainly a poor passing day for the future Hall of Fame player, while his Receivers haven't helped with too many drops.
I don't want to be overly critical of Peyton Manning who has had a wonderful career, but I am not sure he has enough to lead Denver to a win in this one. The Patriots have a lot of respect for Manning too, but they will use a fierce pass rush to rattle the Quarter Back and make sure he does not have the time to throw the ball to his Receivers down the field.
The deep ball is gone anyway, but Manning might have some success if the quick passes can be caught by his Receivers and that might be the best way they can get the running game established. Manning is more reliant on the likes of CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman than he has been on other Running Backs over the last few years as he can't move the chains with his arm alone, but the New England Patriots will clamp down on the run like the Steelers did in the Divisional Round and will almost dare Manning to beat them with his arm.
There will be a lot of coverage about Peyton Manning in this one, no less so because he is facing his old adversary Tom Brady who is still playing up to the level he has set for himself. Brady will be very glad that he has got all of his Offensive weapons back and he has had one look at the Denver Defensive unit already this season and has the likes of Julian Edelman in the starting line up this time.
Brady played well in the first game considering the supporting cast, but that shouldn't be an issue this week. The likes of Edelman and Rob Gronkowski create match up problems no matter where they line up, but Denver will have faith in the Defense that has been so important to their success all season.
It will be up to Brady to make the plays because the New England Patriots are not going to have a lot of success lining up and traditionally running the ball. This is the one area that Denver have been strong through the season and it was a big hit against Fitzgerald Toussaint when he tried running the ball that became the key play of their Divisional Round win over Pittsburgh.
Now Josh McDaniels won't want to drop Brady back and have him throw fifty times a game, but I can see New England using a number of players similar to Pittsburgh to move the ball on the ground. That is getting Danny Amendola, Brandon LeFell and Julian Edelman taking some end arounds to find themselves in space, while Brady will be happy to make the short passes to keep the Offensive unit in third and manageable spots through the game.
As much as Denver have enjoyed getting the pressure on the Quarter Backs they have faced, it has been possible to throw the ball against them, while New England's Offensive Line is healthier now. I expect they will give Brady just enough time to make his plays and I do think it will be difficult for Peyton Manning to keep up barring his Defense giving him a couple of short fields with turnovers or big Special Teams plays.
The Patriots will have to change some recent history as eight of the last nine AFC Championship Games have been won by the team hosting. However, favourites in the Conference Championship Game of three points or fewer have a very strong 11-3 record against the spread going back to 1986.
One area New England have thrived in is the revenging a same season loss and they have gone 12-4 against the spread under Bill Belichick in that regards. Add in the fact that teams that won the last regular season game are just 7-11-1 against the spread in the last couple of years in post-season games.
I do think New England will have learned a lot about Denver from their first game and it is hard to see Peyton Manning generating enough points to win this game unless Tom Brady turns the ball over two or three times.
New England are an experienced bunch and I think they are looking healthier while I can see them earning revenge over Denver by beating them in the AFC Championship Game at the same venue they were beaten by the Broncos two seasons ago.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers Pick: This was the game that I always felt was most deserving of the NFC Championship Game and I hope the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals are over their nervy finishes to the Divisional Round.
The Panthers were very close to blowing their 31-0 half time lead to Seattle who might have won the game if they could have pushed it to Overtime with all the momentum behind them. On the other side of the coin was the Arizona Cardinals giving up a Hail Mary pass that forced their game into Overtime before a couple of huge plays from Carson Palmer to Larry Fitzgerald won it for the Cardinals against the Green Bay Packers.
Carson Palmer had a horrible start to the game with the Packers as he couldn't shake the nerves that come for a player that has had zero Play Off success before last week. That win in the Divisional Round should loosen Palmer up and he and Bruce Arians must have been excited to see what the Seahawks were able to do when they were forced to pass in the second half to get back into the game.
It is not the first time the Panthers have allowed a furious comeback this season- the Green Bay Packers and the New York Giants both rallied before ultimately coming up short as Seattle did last week when the time, rather than the Carolina Defense, beat them. This is now a Carolina Secondary that have given up over 300 passing yards per game in their last three games and face an Arizona team that love throwing the ball and are very successful at doing that.
There will be some pressure on Palmer from the pass rush that Carolina generate and he has to be aware of trying to take away the mistakes that have blighted him in recent games. This is a ball-hawking team that looks to create turnover and every possession is going to be key for Arizona to pull the upset.
Bruce Arians will know his team matches up well Offensively with Carolina even if it is unlikely that Arizona will be able to run the ball effectively, but he should also have faith that the Defensive unit can slow down Cam Newton and the Panthers. Newton has been immense when you think of what he has been working with, while Jonathan Stewart looked strong after missing a couple of games through injury.
I do think Carolina can establish the run in this game which is vital for them if they are going to win this game. Both Stewart and Mike Tolbert will be able to find space against Arizona who have struggled against the run in recent games, although that could be down to facing three very good passers and so losing the focus.
Either way I do think Carolina will have some joy running the ball with Newton using the read-option to good effect, but the key will be whether they can make the big plays through the air which has been a feature of their games all through the season. One aspect where Arizona have improved in each passing week is getting some sort of pass rush generated, although getting to Cam Newton is far from easy, but Arizona also know they have a Secondary that can shut down Receivers.
It is a shame that Tyrann Mathieu is out for the Cardinals, but this is still a team that has used the pressure up front to make the Secondary look even more effective. It has been a struggle at times for Carolina to make the plays through the air that they would like to, especially in recent games, and I think Arizona may have learnt something from the way Seattle approached the second half to slow down what the Panthers wanted to do.
As soon as this game was set I knew I wanted to back the Arizona Cardinals if they were given at least three points here, even though the statistic I pointed out in the Denver-New England pick points to a trend that would favour the home favourites. Unlike the AFC Championship Game, hosting the NFC Championship Game hasn't meant all that in recent seasons with those teams going 4-4 straight up, but they were 2-4 before Seattle's two consecutive wins in the last two seasons although just 1-1 against the spread in those wins.
Carolina have been very dominant as the home underdog of three points or fewer as I pointed out when backing them to beat Seattle, but this Arizona team is 15-7 against the spread as the road underdog over the last couple of seasons, while they are 4-0 against the spread when set as the road underdog of three points or fewer.
I also think the time of the game is significant for Arizona as it will match what they might be used to on the West Coast even though this game is played in Carolina. It could be cold which is an issue for an indoor team playing outdoors, but I think Arizona earn some revenge for their Play Off loss to the Panthers last season when injuries bit them hard.
This should be a really fun game to watch but I think enough factors are pointing to the Cardinals in this one and I will take the points being offered.
MY PICKS: New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 3 Points @ 2.o0 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
You can't say there have been too many upsets in the post-season so far with all of the games being won by the favourites aside from the Green Bay win in Washington when the home team were favoured by a single point.
Now we have reached the Conference Championship Games and this time we have one small home favourite and one small home underdog as the Number 1 Seeds host the Number 2 Seeds in both the AFC and NFC Championship Games.
I have to say I am looking forward to both games and I have picks from both.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Pick: The Denver Broncos stole the Number 1 Seed in the AFC from under the New England Patriots' noses, but I don't think it was ever a big concern for Bill Belichick to host the Championship Game. That was particularly the case with the injuries New England had been dealing with in the final two weeks of the regular season, but they are a lot healthier now and will be seeking revenge for a loss here in the regular season.
It hasn't been a familiar position for the New England Patriots in recent years as their AFC Championship Games have mainly been held at home during the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. The Patriots haven't really enjoyed the last two times they have had to travel for the AFC Championship Game as they have lost both of those, ironically to the Quarter Back they will be facing on Sunday.
Peyton Manning helped the Denver Broncos beat the New England Patriots here two seasons ago and was also Quarter Back of the Indianapolis Colts when they beat New England at home in 2007. However, I don't think it is really making any grand statement to say that Manning is not the same as even the Quarter Back that played in the Championship Game two seasons ago and his career in Denver is winding down.
He would love to go out on a high, but Manning will have to be better than he was in the win over the Pittsburgh Steelers when only a busted decision from the referees helped Denver come back and win that game. Manning was somehow allowed to get up from a 'self Sack' and then throw the ball for a 40 yard gain, but it was mainly a poor passing day for the future Hall of Fame player, while his Receivers haven't helped with too many drops.
I don't want to be overly critical of Peyton Manning who has had a wonderful career, but I am not sure he has enough to lead Denver to a win in this one. The Patriots have a lot of respect for Manning too, but they will use a fierce pass rush to rattle the Quarter Back and make sure he does not have the time to throw the ball to his Receivers down the field.
The deep ball is gone anyway, but Manning might have some success if the quick passes can be caught by his Receivers and that might be the best way they can get the running game established. Manning is more reliant on the likes of CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman than he has been on other Running Backs over the last few years as he can't move the chains with his arm alone, but the New England Patriots will clamp down on the run like the Steelers did in the Divisional Round and will almost dare Manning to beat them with his arm.
There will be a lot of coverage about Peyton Manning in this one, no less so because he is facing his old adversary Tom Brady who is still playing up to the level he has set for himself. Brady will be very glad that he has got all of his Offensive weapons back and he has had one look at the Denver Defensive unit already this season and has the likes of Julian Edelman in the starting line up this time.
Brady played well in the first game considering the supporting cast, but that shouldn't be an issue this week. The likes of Edelman and Rob Gronkowski create match up problems no matter where they line up, but Denver will have faith in the Defense that has been so important to their success all season.
It will be up to Brady to make the plays because the New England Patriots are not going to have a lot of success lining up and traditionally running the ball. This is the one area that Denver have been strong through the season and it was a big hit against Fitzgerald Toussaint when he tried running the ball that became the key play of their Divisional Round win over Pittsburgh.
Now Josh McDaniels won't want to drop Brady back and have him throw fifty times a game, but I can see New England using a number of players similar to Pittsburgh to move the ball on the ground. That is getting Danny Amendola, Brandon LeFell and Julian Edelman taking some end arounds to find themselves in space, while Brady will be happy to make the short passes to keep the Offensive unit in third and manageable spots through the game.
As much as Denver have enjoyed getting the pressure on the Quarter Backs they have faced, it has been possible to throw the ball against them, while New England's Offensive Line is healthier now. I expect they will give Brady just enough time to make his plays and I do think it will be difficult for Peyton Manning to keep up barring his Defense giving him a couple of short fields with turnovers or big Special Teams plays.
The Patriots will have to change some recent history as eight of the last nine AFC Championship Games have been won by the team hosting. However, favourites in the Conference Championship Game of three points or fewer have a very strong 11-3 record against the spread going back to 1986.
One area New England have thrived in is the revenging a same season loss and they have gone 12-4 against the spread under Bill Belichick in that regards. Add in the fact that teams that won the last regular season game are just 7-11-1 against the spread in the last couple of years in post-season games.
I do think New England will have learned a lot about Denver from their first game and it is hard to see Peyton Manning generating enough points to win this game unless Tom Brady turns the ball over two or three times.
New England are an experienced bunch and I think they are looking healthier while I can see them earning revenge over Denver by beating them in the AFC Championship Game at the same venue they were beaten by the Broncos two seasons ago.
Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers Pick: This was the game that I always felt was most deserving of the NFC Championship Game and I hope the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals are over their nervy finishes to the Divisional Round.
The Panthers were very close to blowing their 31-0 half time lead to Seattle who might have won the game if they could have pushed it to Overtime with all the momentum behind them. On the other side of the coin was the Arizona Cardinals giving up a Hail Mary pass that forced their game into Overtime before a couple of huge plays from Carson Palmer to Larry Fitzgerald won it for the Cardinals against the Green Bay Packers.
Carson Palmer had a horrible start to the game with the Packers as he couldn't shake the nerves that come for a player that has had zero Play Off success before last week. That win in the Divisional Round should loosen Palmer up and he and Bruce Arians must have been excited to see what the Seahawks were able to do when they were forced to pass in the second half to get back into the game.
It is not the first time the Panthers have allowed a furious comeback this season- the Green Bay Packers and the New York Giants both rallied before ultimately coming up short as Seattle did last week when the time, rather than the Carolina Defense, beat them. This is now a Carolina Secondary that have given up over 300 passing yards per game in their last three games and face an Arizona team that love throwing the ball and are very successful at doing that.
There will be some pressure on Palmer from the pass rush that Carolina generate and he has to be aware of trying to take away the mistakes that have blighted him in recent games. This is a ball-hawking team that looks to create turnover and every possession is going to be key for Arizona to pull the upset.
Bruce Arians will know his team matches up well Offensively with Carolina even if it is unlikely that Arizona will be able to run the ball effectively, but he should also have faith that the Defensive unit can slow down Cam Newton and the Panthers. Newton has been immense when you think of what he has been working with, while Jonathan Stewart looked strong after missing a couple of games through injury.
I do think Carolina can establish the run in this game which is vital for them if they are going to win this game. Both Stewart and Mike Tolbert will be able to find space against Arizona who have struggled against the run in recent games, although that could be down to facing three very good passers and so losing the focus.
Either way I do think Carolina will have some joy running the ball with Newton using the read-option to good effect, but the key will be whether they can make the big plays through the air which has been a feature of their games all through the season. One aspect where Arizona have improved in each passing week is getting some sort of pass rush generated, although getting to Cam Newton is far from easy, but Arizona also know they have a Secondary that can shut down Receivers.
It is a shame that Tyrann Mathieu is out for the Cardinals, but this is still a team that has used the pressure up front to make the Secondary look even more effective. It has been a struggle at times for Carolina to make the plays through the air that they would like to, especially in recent games, and I think Arizona may have learnt something from the way Seattle approached the second half to slow down what the Panthers wanted to do.
As soon as this game was set I knew I wanted to back the Arizona Cardinals if they were given at least three points here, even though the statistic I pointed out in the Denver-New England pick points to a trend that would favour the home favourites. Unlike the AFC Championship Game, hosting the NFC Championship Game hasn't meant all that in recent seasons with those teams going 4-4 straight up, but they were 2-4 before Seattle's two consecutive wins in the last two seasons although just 1-1 against the spread in those wins.
Carolina have been very dominant as the home underdog of three points or fewer as I pointed out when backing them to beat Seattle, but this Arizona team is 15-7 against the spread as the road underdog over the last couple of seasons, while they are 4-0 against the spread when set as the road underdog of three points or fewer.
I also think the time of the game is significant for Arizona as it will match what they might be used to on the West Coast even though this game is played in Carolina. It could be cold which is an issue for an indoor team playing outdoors, but I think Arizona earn some revenge for their Play Off loss to the Panthers last season when injuries bit them hard.
This should be a really fun game to watch but I think enough factors are pointing to the Cardinals in this one and I will take the points being offered.
MY PICKS: New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 3 Points @ 2.o0 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekend Football Picks 2016 (January 23-24)
The Premier League is beginning to heat up at the top and bottom the table and that is making each round of fixtures that much more important as we close in on the final run-in.
Places in the top four are vital for those teams at the top, but simply surviving in the Premier League is arguably a bigger deal with the vast amount of television money that will be coming into the League next season. That makes it exciting at both ends, although I remain convinced that at least three of the vital seven places at the top and bottom are already occupied.
To me it would be a huge surprise if Arsenal or Manchester City are not playing Champions League football next season in their current positions and with the two best teams in the League.
On the other end of the spectrum I think it would be a miracle of seismic proportions for Aston Villa to get out of the bottom three as they have still failed to put back to back League wins together and teams above them keep picking up points. They are 10 points behind Swansea City in 17th place with sixteen games to play and it would take a special turnaround in form for Aston Villa to not just bridge that gap but then surpass Swansea City.
The other places all still look very much up for grabs, although I would fear for Sunderland if they are beaten this week with a ridiculously tough stretch coming up following this game on Saturday.
Norwich City v Liverpool Pick: The opening game of the Premier League weekend is a big one for Norwich City and Liverpool as both managers try and get their team sparking after a couple of results in the Premier League that will have disappointed. It must be a shock to Norwich City that they are only a couple of points clear of the bottom three despite some positive results last month, but that has been the way the Premier League has gone all season.
For Liverpool the last few months will be all about trying to get as many points as possible and getting used to what Jurgen Klopp wants, particularly in the League. This could easily become a Cup team for the remainder of the season with Liverpool on the brink of reaching the Capital One Cup Final while their best chance of getting into the Champions League comes by winning the Europa League.
You know Klopp will make sure his team have the best chance to achieve something special in the final months of the season, but he can't do a lot of rotation for this one. Injuries have dictated that and Klopp will be hoping his side can find some more composure in front of goal after failing to take the chances that came their way against Manchester United.
He will be pleased they did at least had their chances and Liverpool should have some joy at Carrow Road, although 3 defeats in 4 away Premier League games is not good form. That will give Norwich City confidence and they are a team that can score goals at home, although this game could easily head towards a tense and tight one if there isn't a goal early on to just open things up.
Historically this is a game that does produce goals and I think the layers may be surprised in the early lunchtime game on Saturday when this fixture does too.
Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: A few weeks ago this could have potentially been a match that saw the winner move into the Champions League places in the Premier League, but Tottenham Hotspur have just pulled away from Crystal Palace of late. There is no doubt that a win for Crystal Palace would give them some of the momentum back in the race for the top four, but recent form indicates it is Tottenham Hotspur who are more likely to secure a vital three points.
Injuries to Yannick Bolasie and Bakary Sako have taken away some of the pace and creativity Crystal Palace rely upon and the former remains absent. Alan Pardew has also employed counter-attacking tactics, but that has proved harder to do at home and a lack of goals in recent games has to be a big concern against a defensively sound team like Tottenham Hotspur.
Mauricio Pochettino will be confident his team can win this game with that defence if Crystal Palace continue to struggle because Tottenham Hotspur have been finding avenues for goals outside of Harry Kane. That would be huge for Tottenham Hotspur over the coming months as that is the big criticism of the squad, while they have also been very effective away from home in recent games.
You have to say that Tottenham Hotspur look an attractive price to win here, an even higher price than Chelsea were when they left with a 0-3 win. The lack of goals has to be a big concern for Crystal Palace and Spurs can underline their top four credentials by winning here.
It won't be easy, but I am expecting Tottenham Hotspur to earn a narrow win here and keep the pressure on the chasing pack for the top four.
Manchester United v Southampton Pick: Louis Van Gaal is clearly getting fed up by the English media as the stories of an imminent sacking have now been replaced by stories suggesting the Dutchman will leave this summer. It was another spiky press conference, but Van Gaal isn't concerned with pleasing the media who he blames for being highly critical of his Manchester United team and perhaps even riling up the supporters against him.
To be honest, Van Gaal has to take responsibility for an unrest in the stands as Manchester United's negative style continues to frustrate. However, no one will be feeling too downbeat after seeing Manchester United win at Anfield and that means the side have won three of their last four games since the turn of the calendar year.
Even with those results behind them, there is a lack of confidence in backing Manchester United especially when they face a team like Southampton who are defensively sound and have pace in the attacking areas to hurt teams on the counter. That worked perfectly in a 0-1 win here last season and I am concerned that Southampton will get a result this weekend.
However, there are some signs that some of the key players are not so happy at St Mary's these days with Graziano Pelle and Sadio Mane both being linked with moves away from the club. That might have played a part in the inconsistent results Southampton have put together in recent weeks while their most positive results have come at home.
In fact Southampton have lost their last four away games in the Premier League, although this is not a team that is beaten easily when they do lose. I, like many others, play the Super 6 game run by Sky every week and I initially had this game down as a low-scoring draw, but Southampton's poor away record means I think Manchester United can continue their good recent run.
It won't be easy for Manchester United and backing them to win this by a one goal margin for a small interest is my call.
Sunderland v Bournemouth Pick: There are four points between Sunderland in 19th place and Swansea City in 17th place following the results last weekend and Sam Allardyce will know the importance of this fixture.
Following the visit of Bournemouth, Sunderland will play Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, West Ham United, Crystal Palace, Southampton, Everton and Newcastle United and I don't think they are getting too many points from that run.
That means they have to win this weekend to give themselves some momentum to take into that run of games where Sunderland need a couple of surprise results to ensure they are in touch with the teams outside of the bottom three.
Surprise results have helped Bournemouth keep their heads above water and the victories over Chelsea, Manchester United and West Brom in consecutive games in December was huge for Eddie Howe's men. Bournemouth have made some big moves in the transfer market to ensure they are going to be playing in the Premier League next season, while they ended a four game run without a win in the Premier League by beating Norwich City easily at home last weekend.
Like Sunderland, Bournemouth have some tough fixtures coming up which makes this a real 'relegation six pointer'. One issue Bournemouth have had is scoring goals and they have failed in their last couple of away games, while Sunderland have won half of their last six home games.
This is the kind of game that Allardyce will get his players up for even though they continue to look dreadful at the back including in their 4-1 hammering at Tottenham Hotspur last weekend. With Bournemouth buying some new attacking talent I think they will get their goal-scoring boots back on shortly, but I am going to have a small interest in the home underdog securing a narrow win and a vital three points.
West Brom v Aston Villa Pick: These are the kind of games that Tony Pulis has made sure his teams win in recent seasons which has made sure that the manager has never suffered relegation. Another home win would put West Brom in a very strong position as they would move onto 30 points, but Aston Villa have just begun to show some battling qualities.
That is as complimentary I can be towards an awful squad that is unlikely to be good enough to earn an immediate return to the Premier League if they are relegated as expected. The fans are not happy and will be quick to turn on their team and even playing away from home won't help matters as the game at Wycombe Wanderers proved earlier this month.
Of course this is a derby and anything can happen, but West Brom have not had a League double over Aston Villa in over forty years and won't have a better chance than this one. They have played well at home in recent games and West Brom look a team that will be better organised than Aston Villa who will continue to make mistakes defensively in games.
Better finishing from Wycombe Wanderers during the week would have made that FA Cup Third Round Replay very, very awkward for Aston Villa. West Brom had a confidence boosting Cup win themselves and I just feel the home team are the better team and look an attractive price at odds against to win this one.
West Ham United v Manchester City Pick: The first thing that leaps out to me when looking at the weekend prices was that Manchester City look a remarkably short price to win this game considering their struggles away from home. West Ham United are no mugs at Upton Park where they have not lost any of their last 9 games and the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool have lost here this season.
West Ham United play an attractive, attacking band of football and they will have plenty of belief they can become the latest team to expose the soft underbelly of Manchester City. Vincent Kompany remains a big loss for the away team and this really does look like a potential upset in the making.
Of course I do think Manchester City are the best team in the Premier League and they looked much healthier in the 4-0 win over Crystal Palace at home last weekend. David Silva and Sergio Aguero remaining healthy is the key for Manchester City to win the League and those players being around means Manchester City can't be underestimated in any game.
However, I can't shake the feeling that West Ham United are a big price to simply avoid defeat at Upton Park again. Even with that in mind, I am instead going to focus on this fixture giving us more goals as it has in the past as I can see both teams scoring and neither manager is going to think the point is good enough for their individual goals.
I do think we will see a winner on Saturday, but picking that is tough and I will instead focus on there being at least three goals shared out.
Everton v Swansea City Pick: Roberto Martinez was fuming after a controversial goal in the eighth minute of injury time cost his Everton team two points and this is a big game for them this weekend. The chances of Everton finishing in the top four have been diminishing on a weekly basis and the fans would have expected much better than seeing their team in the bottom half of the table.
That has led to some of the fans giving the team a bit of grief in their home games and Everton need to make a strong start to keep them on side in this one. Draws at Manchester City and Chelsea are not bad ones and Everton have won their last couple of home games in all competitions, but failing to win this one will hurt.
It is a winnable game with Swansea City struggling and now getting ready to hear a new voice in the dressing room. They did win their most recent game against Watford, but that was a poor game and it was the one bit of quality that helped Swansea City win that game.
The team remain firmly in trouble at the bottom of the Premier League and they could easily find themselves in the bottom three at kick off if Newcastle United have won at Watford on Saturday. Swansea City have lost five of their last six games away from home in all competitions and this is an Everton time that will test them defensively through the game.
Martinez will be desperate for his team to make a fast start and I do think Everton are the better team taking to the field. With the two wins in a row at Goodison Park, I think Everton have some momentum here and can win this fixture to take some momentum into the Capital One Cup Semi Final at Manchester City during the week.
Arsenal v Chelsea Pick: It might be harsh when looking back, but Chelsea were absolutely awful in a goalless draw at Manchester United at the end of the month, but they did keep another clean sheet away from home. For all the goals they have been conceding at home, Chelsea have 3 clean sheets in their last 4 away games in the Premier League, but expect that record to be tested by the returns of Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez for Arsenal.
This is a big game for Arsenal, make no mistake about that.
Draws at Liverpool and Stoke City are not bad results on their own, but losing their significant lead over Manchester City in the League table is a blow and Arsenal fans might be wondering if they are missing their window to win the title. Beating Chelsea will reignited the belief that Arsenal are capable of going all the way and I do think they are playing enough creative attacking football to do that.
Chelsea have made life tough for Arsenal in recent games at The Emirates Stadium, earning 3 goalless draws in their last 4 League visits here and winning the other, but this is not the same team of those games. This Chelsea team looks fragile and the returns of Ozil and Sanchez gives Arsenal the kind of attacking players that can unlock a defence that is struggling anyway.
The Gunners have also looked much more secure at the back with Petr Cech giving them confidence and that has particularly been seen at The Emirates Stadium. Arsenal have beaten both Manchester United and Manchester City here and I think they look an attractive price on the form to knock off Chelsea and underline their ability to win the Premier League title this season.
MY PICKS: Norwich City-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
Manchester United to Win by One Goal @ 3.60 Stan James (1 Unit)
Sunderland @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
West Brom @ 2.15 Bet Fred (2 Units)
West Ham United-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Places in the top four are vital for those teams at the top, but simply surviving in the Premier League is arguably a bigger deal with the vast amount of television money that will be coming into the League next season. That makes it exciting at both ends, although I remain convinced that at least three of the vital seven places at the top and bottom are already occupied.
To me it would be a huge surprise if Arsenal or Manchester City are not playing Champions League football next season in their current positions and with the two best teams in the League.
On the other end of the spectrum I think it would be a miracle of seismic proportions for Aston Villa to get out of the bottom three as they have still failed to put back to back League wins together and teams above them keep picking up points. They are 10 points behind Swansea City in 17th place with sixteen games to play and it would take a special turnaround in form for Aston Villa to not just bridge that gap but then surpass Swansea City.
The other places all still look very much up for grabs, although I would fear for Sunderland if they are beaten this week with a ridiculously tough stretch coming up following this game on Saturday.
Norwich City v Liverpool Pick: The opening game of the Premier League weekend is a big one for Norwich City and Liverpool as both managers try and get their team sparking after a couple of results in the Premier League that will have disappointed. It must be a shock to Norwich City that they are only a couple of points clear of the bottom three despite some positive results last month, but that has been the way the Premier League has gone all season.
For Liverpool the last few months will be all about trying to get as many points as possible and getting used to what Jurgen Klopp wants, particularly in the League. This could easily become a Cup team for the remainder of the season with Liverpool on the brink of reaching the Capital One Cup Final while their best chance of getting into the Champions League comes by winning the Europa League.
You know Klopp will make sure his team have the best chance to achieve something special in the final months of the season, but he can't do a lot of rotation for this one. Injuries have dictated that and Klopp will be hoping his side can find some more composure in front of goal after failing to take the chances that came their way against Manchester United.
He will be pleased they did at least had their chances and Liverpool should have some joy at Carrow Road, although 3 defeats in 4 away Premier League games is not good form. That will give Norwich City confidence and they are a team that can score goals at home, although this game could easily head towards a tense and tight one if there isn't a goal early on to just open things up.
Historically this is a game that does produce goals and I think the layers may be surprised in the early lunchtime game on Saturday when this fixture does too.
Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: A few weeks ago this could have potentially been a match that saw the winner move into the Champions League places in the Premier League, but Tottenham Hotspur have just pulled away from Crystal Palace of late. There is no doubt that a win for Crystal Palace would give them some of the momentum back in the race for the top four, but recent form indicates it is Tottenham Hotspur who are more likely to secure a vital three points.
Injuries to Yannick Bolasie and Bakary Sako have taken away some of the pace and creativity Crystal Palace rely upon and the former remains absent. Alan Pardew has also employed counter-attacking tactics, but that has proved harder to do at home and a lack of goals in recent games has to be a big concern against a defensively sound team like Tottenham Hotspur.
Mauricio Pochettino will be confident his team can win this game with that defence if Crystal Palace continue to struggle because Tottenham Hotspur have been finding avenues for goals outside of Harry Kane. That would be huge for Tottenham Hotspur over the coming months as that is the big criticism of the squad, while they have also been very effective away from home in recent games.
You have to say that Tottenham Hotspur look an attractive price to win here, an even higher price than Chelsea were when they left with a 0-3 win. The lack of goals has to be a big concern for Crystal Palace and Spurs can underline their top four credentials by winning here.
It won't be easy, but I am expecting Tottenham Hotspur to earn a narrow win here and keep the pressure on the chasing pack for the top four.
Manchester United v Southampton Pick: Louis Van Gaal is clearly getting fed up by the English media as the stories of an imminent sacking have now been replaced by stories suggesting the Dutchman will leave this summer. It was another spiky press conference, but Van Gaal isn't concerned with pleasing the media who he blames for being highly critical of his Manchester United team and perhaps even riling up the supporters against him.
To be honest, Van Gaal has to take responsibility for an unrest in the stands as Manchester United's negative style continues to frustrate. However, no one will be feeling too downbeat after seeing Manchester United win at Anfield and that means the side have won three of their last four games since the turn of the calendar year.
Even with those results behind them, there is a lack of confidence in backing Manchester United especially when they face a team like Southampton who are defensively sound and have pace in the attacking areas to hurt teams on the counter. That worked perfectly in a 0-1 win here last season and I am concerned that Southampton will get a result this weekend.
However, there are some signs that some of the key players are not so happy at St Mary's these days with Graziano Pelle and Sadio Mane both being linked with moves away from the club. That might have played a part in the inconsistent results Southampton have put together in recent weeks while their most positive results have come at home.
In fact Southampton have lost their last four away games in the Premier League, although this is not a team that is beaten easily when they do lose. I, like many others, play the Super 6 game run by Sky every week and I initially had this game down as a low-scoring draw, but Southampton's poor away record means I think Manchester United can continue their good recent run.
It won't be easy for Manchester United and backing them to win this by a one goal margin for a small interest is my call.
Sunderland v Bournemouth Pick: There are four points between Sunderland in 19th place and Swansea City in 17th place following the results last weekend and Sam Allardyce will know the importance of this fixture.
Following the visit of Bournemouth, Sunderland will play Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, West Ham United, Crystal Palace, Southampton, Everton and Newcastle United and I don't think they are getting too many points from that run.
That means they have to win this weekend to give themselves some momentum to take into that run of games where Sunderland need a couple of surprise results to ensure they are in touch with the teams outside of the bottom three.
Surprise results have helped Bournemouth keep their heads above water and the victories over Chelsea, Manchester United and West Brom in consecutive games in December was huge for Eddie Howe's men. Bournemouth have made some big moves in the transfer market to ensure they are going to be playing in the Premier League next season, while they ended a four game run without a win in the Premier League by beating Norwich City easily at home last weekend.
Like Sunderland, Bournemouth have some tough fixtures coming up which makes this a real 'relegation six pointer'. One issue Bournemouth have had is scoring goals and they have failed in their last couple of away games, while Sunderland have won half of their last six home games.
This is the kind of game that Allardyce will get his players up for even though they continue to look dreadful at the back including in their 4-1 hammering at Tottenham Hotspur last weekend. With Bournemouth buying some new attacking talent I think they will get their goal-scoring boots back on shortly, but I am going to have a small interest in the home underdog securing a narrow win and a vital three points.
West Brom v Aston Villa Pick: These are the kind of games that Tony Pulis has made sure his teams win in recent seasons which has made sure that the manager has never suffered relegation. Another home win would put West Brom in a very strong position as they would move onto 30 points, but Aston Villa have just begun to show some battling qualities.
That is as complimentary I can be towards an awful squad that is unlikely to be good enough to earn an immediate return to the Premier League if they are relegated as expected. The fans are not happy and will be quick to turn on their team and even playing away from home won't help matters as the game at Wycombe Wanderers proved earlier this month.
Of course this is a derby and anything can happen, but West Brom have not had a League double over Aston Villa in over forty years and won't have a better chance than this one. They have played well at home in recent games and West Brom look a team that will be better organised than Aston Villa who will continue to make mistakes defensively in games.
Better finishing from Wycombe Wanderers during the week would have made that FA Cup Third Round Replay very, very awkward for Aston Villa. West Brom had a confidence boosting Cup win themselves and I just feel the home team are the better team and look an attractive price at odds against to win this one.
West Ham United v Manchester City Pick: The first thing that leaps out to me when looking at the weekend prices was that Manchester City look a remarkably short price to win this game considering their struggles away from home. West Ham United are no mugs at Upton Park where they have not lost any of their last 9 games and the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool have lost here this season.
West Ham United play an attractive, attacking band of football and they will have plenty of belief they can become the latest team to expose the soft underbelly of Manchester City. Vincent Kompany remains a big loss for the away team and this really does look like a potential upset in the making.
Of course I do think Manchester City are the best team in the Premier League and they looked much healthier in the 4-0 win over Crystal Palace at home last weekend. David Silva and Sergio Aguero remaining healthy is the key for Manchester City to win the League and those players being around means Manchester City can't be underestimated in any game.
However, I can't shake the feeling that West Ham United are a big price to simply avoid defeat at Upton Park again. Even with that in mind, I am instead going to focus on this fixture giving us more goals as it has in the past as I can see both teams scoring and neither manager is going to think the point is good enough for their individual goals.
I do think we will see a winner on Saturday, but picking that is tough and I will instead focus on there being at least three goals shared out.
Everton v Swansea City Pick: Roberto Martinez was fuming after a controversial goal in the eighth minute of injury time cost his Everton team two points and this is a big game for them this weekend. The chances of Everton finishing in the top four have been diminishing on a weekly basis and the fans would have expected much better than seeing their team in the bottom half of the table.
That has led to some of the fans giving the team a bit of grief in their home games and Everton need to make a strong start to keep them on side in this one. Draws at Manchester City and Chelsea are not bad ones and Everton have won their last couple of home games in all competitions, but failing to win this one will hurt.
It is a winnable game with Swansea City struggling and now getting ready to hear a new voice in the dressing room. They did win their most recent game against Watford, but that was a poor game and it was the one bit of quality that helped Swansea City win that game.
The team remain firmly in trouble at the bottom of the Premier League and they could easily find themselves in the bottom three at kick off if Newcastle United have won at Watford on Saturday. Swansea City have lost five of their last six games away from home in all competitions and this is an Everton time that will test them defensively through the game.
Martinez will be desperate for his team to make a fast start and I do think Everton are the better team taking to the field. With the two wins in a row at Goodison Park, I think Everton have some momentum here and can win this fixture to take some momentum into the Capital One Cup Semi Final at Manchester City during the week.
Arsenal v Chelsea Pick: It might be harsh when looking back, but Chelsea were absolutely awful in a goalless draw at Manchester United at the end of the month, but they did keep another clean sheet away from home. For all the goals they have been conceding at home, Chelsea have 3 clean sheets in their last 4 away games in the Premier League, but expect that record to be tested by the returns of Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez for Arsenal.
This is a big game for Arsenal, make no mistake about that.
Draws at Liverpool and Stoke City are not bad results on their own, but losing their significant lead over Manchester City in the League table is a blow and Arsenal fans might be wondering if they are missing their window to win the title. Beating Chelsea will reignited the belief that Arsenal are capable of going all the way and I do think they are playing enough creative attacking football to do that.
Chelsea have made life tough for Arsenal in recent games at The Emirates Stadium, earning 3 goalless draws in their last 4 League visits here and winning the other, but this is not the same team of those games. This Chelsea team looks fragile and the returns of Ozil and Sanchez gives Arsenal the kind of attacking players that can unlock a defence that is struggling anyway.
The Gunners have also looked much more secure at the back with Petr Cech giving them confidence and that has particularly been seen at The Emirates Stadium. Arsenal have beaten both Manchester United and Manchester City here and I think they look an attractive price on the form to knock off Chelsea and underline their ability to win the Premier League title this season.
MY PICKS: Norwich City-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
Manchester United to Win by One Goal @ 3.60 Stan James (1 Unit)
Sunderland @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
West Brom @ 2.15 Bet Fred (2 Units)
West Ham United-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Friday, 22 January 2016
Australian Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2016 (January 23rd)
I have never had a run as bad as the one I have been on in the last couple of days, especially when it comes to the Grand Slam tournaments.
I couldn't pick a single thing right but I am getting really frustrated by the lack of any good fortune I am getting. Kei Nishikori suddenly can't play with his bad wrist and loses the second set before fighting back, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is a break up in every set but loses serve immediately in the last couple of sets, and Belinda Bencic has all the chances but can't make a return get further than the service line to cost her the cover.
All three players won, but it kept going through the day as Marin Cilic blew a healthy second set lead that might have turned his match against Roberto Bautista Agut, Roger Federer missed a 0-40 chance at 5-3 up in the first set and ultimately that costs him with him failing to cover by a single game.
Kristen Mladenovic then played a horrific final few games to go down 11-9 deep in the third set and I was watching some of these things happening and you do get frustrated when those chances have been there.
Instead I have had two of the worst back to back days since I've began making my picks and this Grand Slam is almost certainly going to end with a losing record which just annoys me down to the ground.
And before anyone asks, no I don't think any matches have been fixed but instead it has been a frustrating time.
So what can I do? There is no point making too many changes to the way I am at the moment because I can really point to a lot of poor luck not helping me out, but I really hope that does turn around and get this tournament very much back on track.
Feliciano Lopez + 1.5 sets v John Isner: It was a gruelling five set match for Feliciano Lopez two days ago and the question has to be how much does he have left in the tank following that tough, tough Second Round match. His fitness is not usually something to be overly concerned about and he does have an 8-9 record in Grand Slams following a five set match, but Lopez has enjoyed his previous matches against John Isner.
The big serving American is going to fizz plenty of balls past opponents, but Lopez has the slice return that can nullify that a little, especially if we get to tie-breakers. He is 4-6 in tie-breakers against Isner, but Lopez has found a way to get involved in service games and actually has won their two previous Grand Slam matches at Wimbledon and here at the Australian Open.
I am a little concerned for Isner whose movement didn't look the best in his three set win over Marcel Granollers and that match might have taken on a really different feel if he was pushed into four or five sets. Lopez had to play four tie-breakers in the last Round and it was a long match, longer than he might have figured it to be, but I do think the Spaniard can rally and push this into a fifth set at the least.
In actual fact I think Lopez looks a very live underdog to win this match outright against Isner and he has to be considered to do that. However, I will take the set handicap and look for Lopez to win at least two sets in this one even off the back of his tough Second Round match.
Milos Raonic Win 3-1 v Victor Troicki: This is going to be a tougher Third Round match for Milos Raonic than the layers may be thinking, especially if Victor Troicki can produce the form that took him to the Sydney title last week. That has meant Troicki has played plenty of tennis of late, but the Serb will have every chance of producing a shock if Raonic is playing as ineffectively as he was in the Second Round.
Raonic won in straight sets, but it was a much tougher day in the office against Tommy Robredo than he and many others would have predicted. He blamed not taking a very early chance to break serve which might have made things easier, but that was also against an opponent that hasn't beaten Raonic before.
Troicki won't have to get through those mental battles having beaten Raonic in straight sets in Beijing in the last quarter of 2015, but it is still a big ask to get through and earn the upset. He will have to be at his best to do that, but Troicki hasn't been that strong in the tournament so far to think he will be able to do just that.
It will be close at times with both players able to run through service games, but I think the edge is with the Brisbane Champion in this match between two players who have won titles this season. Milos Raonic has looked after his serve effectively enough to think he will get the better of Troicki but it is hard to imagine it coming in comfortable fashion as a straight sets win would suggest.
Stan Wawrinka - 6.5 games v Lukas Rosol: I am not a big fan of backing Stan Wawrinka as a big favourite, especially with big spreads, but I did it in the Second Round and will go back to him in the Third Round. As dangerous as Lukas Rosol can be on the court, Stan Wawrinka will know what to expect and can dominate the second serve he sees to help him through.
This is an even that will always be close to Wawrinka's heart having won the title here, his first Grand Slam, and he is quietly making his way through the draw. He has looked solid in his first two wins and Wawrinka will know he needs to serve well to not allow Rosol to get too much of a foot hold in this match.
One of the weaknesses in the Rosol game is his return and he has rarely hit the heights he achieved when beating Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon. That is the match where he usually produces some fireworks, but he has rarely been able to do the same against other top ten players.
When they met in the Davis Cup two seasons ago, Wawrinka was a comfortable straight sets winner on an indoor hard court, but they had a tight three set match in Geneva last season on clay. I do think the slower courts favour Rosol a little more as he can get a good wind up on his shots, but Wawrinka is very comfortable on the Rod Laver Arena and I think he will batten down and come through 75, 63, 64.
Andy Murray - 9.5 games v Joao Sousa: At first glance you have to say this is a massive spread for Andy Murray to cover when you think he is playing another Seeded player in this Third Round encounter. However, Joao Sousa has really had a hard time with the match up that Murray gives him and the form of the World Number 2 makes him a clear favourite to put another dominant win on the board.
So far Murray has dropped just eleven games in the six sets he has played and he made the big serving Sam Groth look distinctly average. Of course he will have to get used to the different conditions that players are facing when playing on the night session, but Murray dominated Sousa in previous matches and it is hard to see that changing.
I do love what Sousa has got out of his game and the fact he is Seeded is testament to the hard work he puts into his tennis. He won a title at the back end of 2015 in Valencia, the biggest of his career, and Sousa has also only dropped a single set so far in two Rounds which will give him plenty of confidence.
However, Sousa has lost all six previous matches against Murray including two absolute pastings at the Australian Open in 2013 and 2015 which would have seen the British player cover this number of games. There won't be too many cheap points being earned by Sousa in this one as Murray gets plenty of balls back in play and also is the far superior player off the ground who won't look to push too far and start handing out a bunch of unforced errors.
As long as Murray avoids the sloppy set he threw in at the French Open when the met last season, one that meant he would have missed covering this number of games by one game, I think the World Number 2 continues serene progress through the draw behind a 62, 63, 63 win.
Bernard Tomic - 6.5 games v John Millman: Two Australians will meet in the final match of the night session on the Rod Laver Arena and Bernard Tomic looks a considerable favourite to win the match. He will respect what John Millman brings to the court, but the latter has spent a lot more time on court than Tomic and the superior player should prove far too strong.
It was only a sloppy finish to the third set against Simone Bolelli that prevented Tomic making routine progress into the Third Round and that has to be a concern for me. There are too many times that Tomic seems to just go off the boil when the match is at hand, but I think this match up is a lot more comfortable for him than the enigmatic Italian.
Tomic will know exactly what he is going to get from John Millman and he should be relatively comfortable on the court. Avoiding those mental lapses is the key for Tomic if he is going to get over this number but he should have plenty of chances to do that with his style of play as he frustrates Millman by getting plenty of balls back in play and employing plenty of variation.
This has been a good start to the 2016 season for Tomic and I think he has a chance of coming through this Third Round match in perhaps the most straight-forward fashion he has all week.
Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Denisa Allertova: I am not going to be ashamed of the fact that I was pretty high on the Johanna Konta game for a while, especially now she is living up to the potential she has. Konta has the chance to reach the Fourth Round in back to back Grand Slams with a win on Saturday and I do think she has every chance of beating Denisa Allertova behind the two wins she has already achieved at Melbourne Park.
Last season Konta was beaten in three sets in the French Open First Round by Allertova and she can't underestimate a player that has beaten a Seeded player in Sabine Lisicki to make it through to the Third Round.
Like many on the WTA Tour, Allertova has had some big successes, but finding the consistency in her game continues to elude her. She has beaten the likes of Simona Halep but lost to Misaki Doi, and I think Konta is able to get revenge for the loss she suffered last year in Roland Garros.
There really wasn't much between them back in May as Allertova won four more points to move into the Second Round. I do think the British Number 1 has improved markedly from a mental point of view since that match and she is not going to overawed by the occasion having already reached the Fourth Round at the US Open in September.
Konta handled being the favourite in her win over Saisai Zheng in the Second Round as she backed up her big win over Venus Williams for the loss of just five games. She did show nerves trying to close the show in the same manner she did against Venus Williams, but Konta will be stronger for that and I think she is good enough to break down Allertova and win this one 75, 64.
Ekaterina Makarova v Karolina Pliskova: One of the few players that has come through for me this week is Karolina Pliskova, but her Grand Slam 'failures' might continue as I believe Ekaterina Makarova ends her tournament in the Third Round. Pliskova really had a hard time at this level in 2015 and Makarova is the kind of player that has plenty of experience of going deep into tournaments that can't be dismissed.
The Russian's best Grand Slam successes have come at the Australian Open and she has the making of another deep run if she can see off Pliskova in this one.
I would imagine Makarova is plenty confident having won both previous matches against Pliskova and won all four sets played, including here at the Australian Open in 2015. As big as Pliskova's serve is, Makarova can match that power and it was the latter who dictated the rallies when they met here last year in a very deserved win.
This one is likely to be closer, but Makarova has quietly come through the draw having lost nine games in the four sets she has played this week. I was impressed with how Pliskova dealt with her first two opponents, but this is another level up when it comes to opponents and I believe the lower Ranked player wins the match and moves into another Fourth Round here.
Ana Ivanovic v Madison Keys: The opening match on the Rod Laver Arena for the night session features a player that is beloved in Australia against one that made a lot of friends following her own special run last season. Ana Ivanovic loves playing in Melbourne and the draw has opened up for a big tournament for her, but it is a big task to take on the big hitting Madison Keys who was a Semi Finalist here in 2015.
Keys didn't disgrace herself in a narrow defeat to Serena Williams in that Semi Final, but she hasn't really found the consistency in her game since then. Even coming into this tournament, Keys has admitted she might not be at her best having suffered an unfortunate accident in the off-season and being a little match rusty.
The two tough wins that Keys has had to battle out might actually work in her favour in that regards, giving her some confidence to take on Ivanovic who has plenty of power but is never far away from the serving yips. That could be critical in this match as Keys has been serving pretty effectively with just one break in each of her first two matches.
Ivanovic will feel she has the power and hitting ability to get more chances than the previous two opponents had in their losses to Keys. The second serve Ivanovic possesses is a particular weakness that she has to try and hide as much as possible, but I do think she might have the physical edge in this one which should be close and competitive throughout.
I do feel Keys is looking like a short favourite at this point of her fitness and backing Ivanovic to reach another Fourth Round here thanks to the large crowd support is the call.
Varvara Lepchenko - 2.5 games v Shuai Zhang: I was stunned by Shuai Zhang's win in the Second Round against Alize Cornet and the Qualifier has admitted this has already been a dream run in the Australian Open. She might not be favoured by the layers, but Zhang has to feel this is the first match of the main draw where she 'should' be winning and I am looking forward to seeing how she copes with that different sort of pressure.
Zhang might have the edge over Varvara Lepchenko having already played one match in the night session during this tournament, but I do wonder when all the tennis she has played affects her performance. The Chinese players is playing with plenty of confidence which makes her extremely dangerous, but I can't shake the fact she needed fourteen games to beat Virginie Razzano in the Qualifiers and that overrides her two top wins.
Her opponent Lepchenko is a solid but unspectacular player and she has done just enough to come through her first two matches in the main draw. Lepchenko will give Zhang a different look with the lefty serve and this is a big chance to reach the Fourth Round which would match her career best performance at a Grand Slam having done that previously in the 2012 French Open and 2015 US Open.
As long as Lepchenko stays in the moment and doesn't start looking ahead, I think she has a very good chance of wearing down Zhang in this one. Credit the latter for a very strong tournament, but Zhang has to eventually feel some pressure and physical ailments from a long ten days of tennis. With this being a match that many will tell her she can win, Zhang might feel that pressure on Saturday in the Third Round and I will look for Lepchenko to come through.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez + 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Milos Raonic Win 3-1 @ 3.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Stan Wawrinka - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 9.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic - 6.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova @ 1.90 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic @ 2.38 Bet365 (2 Units)
Varvara Lepchenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 14-29, - 29.12 Units (83 Units Staked, - 35.08% Yield)
I couldn't pick a single thing right but I am getting really frustrated by the lack of any good fortune I am getting. Kei Nishikori suddenly can't play with his bad wrist and loses the second set before fighting back, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is a break up in every set but loses serve immediately in the last couple of sets, and Belinda Bencic has all the chances but can't make a return get further than the service line to cost her the cover.
All three players won, but it kept going through the day as Marin Cilic blew a healthy second set lead that might have turned his match against Roberto Bautista Agut, Roger Federer missed a 0-40 chance at 5-3 up in the first set and ultimately that costs him with him failing to cover by a single game.
Kristen Mladenovic then played a horrific final few games to go down 11-9 deep in the third set and I was watching some of these things happening and you do get frustrated when those chances have been there.
Instead I have had two of the worst back to back days since I've began making my picks and this Grand Slam is almost certainly going to end with a losing record which just annoys me down to the ground.
And before anyone asks, no I don't think any matches have been fixed but instead it has been a frustrating time.
So what can I do? There is no point making too many changes to the way I am at the moment because I can really point to a lot of poor luck not helping me out, but I really hope that does turn around and get this tournament very much back on track.
Feliciano Lopez + 1.5 sets v John Isner: It was a gruelling five set match for Feliciano Lopez two days ago and the question has to be how much does he have left in the tank following that tough, tough Second Round match. His fitness is not usually something to be overly concerned about and he does have an 8-9 record in Grand Slams following a five set match, but Lopez has enjoyed his previous matches against John Isner.
The big serving American is going to fizz plenty of balls past opponents, but Lopez has the slice return that can nullify that a little, especially if we get to tie-breakers. He is 4-6 in tie-breakers against Isner, but Lopez has found a way to get involved in service games and actually has won their two previous Grand Slam matches at Wimbledon and here at the Australian Open.
I am a little concerned for Isner whose movement didn't look the best in his three set win over Marcel Granollers and that match might have taken on a really different feel if he was pushed into four or five sets. Lopez had to play four tie-breakers in the last Round and it was a long match, longer than he might have figured it to be, but I do think the Spaniard can rally and push this into a fifth set at the least.
In actual fact I think Lopez looks a very live underdog to win this match outright against Isner and he has to be considered to do that. However, I will take the set handicap and look for Lopez to win at least two sets in this one even off the back of his tough Second Round match.
Milos Raonic Win 3-1 v Victor Troicki: This is going to be a tougher Third Round match for Milos Raonic than the layers may be thinking, especially if Victor Troicki can produce the form that took him to the Sydney title last week. That has meant Troicki has played plenty of tennis of late, but the Serb will have every chance of producing a shock if Raonic is playing as ineffectively as he was in the Second Round.
Raonic won in straight sets, but it was a much tougher day in the office against Tommy Robredo than he and many others would have predicted. He blamed not taking a very early chance to break serve which might have made things easier, but that was also against an opponent that hasn't beaten Raonic before.
Troicki won't have to get through those mental battles having beaten Raonic in straight sets in Beijing in the last quarter of 2015, but it is still a big ask to get through and earn the upset. He will have to be at his best to do that, but Troicki hasn't been that strong in the tournament so far to think he will be able to do just that.
It will be close at times with both players able to run through service games, but I think the edge is with the Brisbane Champion in this match between two players who have won titles this season. Milos Raonic has looked after his serve effectively enough to think he will get the better of Troicki but it is hard to imagine it coming in comfortable fashion as a straight sets win would suggest.
Stan Wawrinka - 6.5 games v Lukas Rosol: I am not a big fan of backing Stan Wawrinka as a big favourite, especially with big spreads, but I did it in the Second Round and will go back to him in the Third Round. As dangerous as Lukas Rosol can be on the court, Stan Wawrinka will know what to expect and can dominate the second serve he sees to help him through.
This is an even that will always be close to Wawrinka's heart having won the title here, his first Grand Slam, and he is quietly making his way through the draw. He has looked solid in his first two wins and Wawrinka will know he needs to serve well to not allow Rosol to get too much of a foot hold in this match.
One of the weaknesses in the Rosol game is his return and he has rarely hit the heights he achieved when beating Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon. That is the match where he usually produces some fireworks, but he has rarely been able to do the same against other top ten players.
When they met in the Davis Cup two seasons ago, Wawrinka was a comfortable straight sets winner on an indoor hard court, but they had a tight three set match in Geneva last season on clay. I do think the slower courts favour Rosol a little more as he can get a good wind up on his shots, but Wawrinka is very comfortable on the Rod Laver Arena and I think he will batten down and come through 75, 63, 64.
Andy Murray - 9.5 games v Joao Sousa: At first glance you have to say this is a massive spread for Andy Murray to cover when you think he is playing another Seeded player in this Third Round encounter. However, Joao Sousa has really had a hard time with the match up that Murray gives him and the form of the World Number 2 makes him a clear favourite to put another dominant win on the board.
So far Murray has dropped just eleven games in the six sets he has played and he made the big serving Sam Groth look distinctly average. Of course he will have to get used to the different conditions that players are facing when playing on the night session, but Murray dominated Sousa in previous matches and it is hard to see that changing.
I do love what Sousa has got out of his game and the fact he is Seeded is testament to the hard work he puts into his tennis. He won a title at the back end of 2015 in Valencia, the biggest of his career, and Sousa has also only dropped a single set so far in two Rounds which will give him plenty of confidence.
However, Sousa has lost all six previous matches against Murray including two absolute pastings at the Australian Open in 2013 and 2015 which would have seen the British player cover this number of games. There won't be too many cheap points being earned by Sousa in this one as Murray gets plenty of balls back in play and also is the far superior player off the ground who won't look to push too far and start handing out a bunch of unforced errors.
As long as Murray avoids the sloppy set he threw in at the French Open when the met last season, one that meant he would have missed covering this number of games by one game, I think the World Number 2 continues serene progress through the draw behind a 62, 63, 63 win.
Bernard Tomic - 6.5 games v John Millman: Two Australians will meet in the final match of the night session on the Rod Laver Arena and Bernard Tomic looks a considerable favourite to win the match. He will respect what John Millman brings to the court, but the latter has spent a lot more time on court than Tomic and the superior player should prove far too strong.
It was only a sloppy finish to the third set against Simone Bolelli that prevented Tomic making routine progress into the Third Round and that has to be a concern for me. There are too many times that Tomic seems to just go off the boil when the match is at hand, but I think this match up is a lot more comfortable for him than the enigmatic Italian.
Tomic will know exactly what he is going to get from John Millman and he should be relatively comfortable on the court. Avoiding those mental lapses is the key for Tomic if he is going to get over this number but he should have plenty of chances to do that with his style of play as he frustrates Millman by getting plenty of balls back in play and employing plenty of variation.
This has been a good start to the 2016 season for Tomic and I think he has a chance of coming through this Third Round match in perhaps the most straight-forward fashion he has all week.
Johanna Konta - 3.5 games v Denisa Allertova: I am not going to be ashamed of the fact that I was pretty high on the Johanna Konta game for a while, especially now she is living up to the potential she has. Konta has the chance to reach the Fourth Round in back to back Grand Slams with a win on Saturday and I do think she has every chance of beating Denisa Allertova behind the two wins she has already achieved at Melbourne Park.
Last season Konta was beaten in three sets in the French Open First Round by Allertova and she can't underestimate a player that has beaten a Seeded player in Sabine Lisicki to make it through to the Third Round.
Like many on the WTA Tour, Allertova has had some big successes, but finding the consistency in her game continues to elude her. She has beaten the likes of Simona Halep but lost to Misaki Doi, and I think Konta is able to get revenge for the loss she suffered last year in Roland Garros.
There really wasn't much between them back in May as Allertova won four more points to move into the Second Round. I do think the British Number 1 has improved markedly from a mental point of view since that match and she is not going to overawed by the occasion having already reached the Fourth Round at the US Open in September.
Konta handled being the favourite in her win over Saisai Zheng in the Second Round as she backed up her big win over Venus Williams for the loss of just five games. She did show nerves trying to close the show in the same manner she did against Venus Williams, but Konta will be stronger for that and I think she is good enough to break down Allertova and win this one 75, 64.
Ekaterina Makarova v Karolina Pliskova: One of the few players that has come through for me this week is Karolina Pliskova, but her Grand Slam 'failures' might continue as I believe Ekaterina Makarova ends her tournament in the Third Round. Pliskova really had a hard time at this level in 2015 and Makarova is the kind of player that has plenty of experience of going deep into tournaments that can't be dismissed.
The Russian's best Grand Slam successes have come at the Australian Open and she has the making of another deep run if she can see off Pliskova in this one.
I would imagine Makarova is plenty confident having won both previous matches against Pliskova and won all four sets played, including here at the Australian Open in 2015. As big as Pliskova's serve is, Makarova can match that power and it was the latter who dictated the rallies when they met here last year in a very deserved win.
This one is likely to be closer, but Makarova has quietly come through the draw having lost nine games in the four sets she has played this week. I was impressed with how Pliskova dealt with her first two opponents, but this is another level up when it comes to opponents and I believe the lower Ranked player wins the match and moves into another Fourth Round here.
Ana Ivanovic v Madison Keys: The opening match on the Rod Laver Arena for the night session features a player that is beloved in Australia against one that made a lot of friends following her own special run last season. Ana Ivanovic loves playing in Melbourne and the draw has opened up for a big tournament for her, but it is a big task to take on the big hitting Madison Keys who was a Semi Finalist here in 2015.
Keys didn't disgrace herself in a narrow defeat to Serena Williams in that Semi Final, but she hasn't really found the consistency in her game since then. Even coming into this tournament, Keys has admitted she might not be at her best having suffered an unfortunate accident in the off-season and being a little match rusty.
The two tough wins that Keys has had to battle out might actually work in her favour in that regards, giving her some confidence to take on Ivanovic who has plenty of power but is never far away from the serving yips. That could be critical in this match as Keys has been serving pretty effectively with just one break in each of her first two matches.
Ivanovic will feel she has the power and hitting ability to get more chances than the previous two opponents had in their losses to Keys. The second serve Ivanovic possesses is a particular weakness that she has to try and hide as much as possible, but I do think she might have the physical edge in this one which should be close and competitive throughout.
I do feel Keys is looking like a short favourite at this point of her fitness and backing Ivanovic to reach another Fourth Round here thanks to the large crowd support is the call.
Varvara Lepchenko - 2.5 games v Shuai Zhang: I was stunned by Shuai Zhang's win in the Second Round against Alize Cornet and the Qualifier has admitted this has already been a dream run in the Australian Open. She might not be favoured by the layers, but Zhang has to feel this is the first match of the main draw where she 'should' be winning and I am looking forward to seeing how she copes with that different sort of pressure.
Zhang might have the edge over Varvara Lepchenko having already played one match in the night session during this tournament, but I do wonder when all the tennis she has played affects her performance. The Chinese players is playing with plenty of confidence which makes her extremely dangerous, but I can't shake the fact she needed fourteen games to beat Virginie Razzano in the Qualifiers and that overrides her two top wins.
Her opponent Lepchenko is a solid but unspectacular player and she has done just enough to come through her first two matches in the main draw. Lepchenko will give Zhang a different look with the lefty serve and this is a big chance to reach the Fourth Round which would match her career best performance at a Grand Slam having done that previously in the 2012 French Open and 2015 US Open.
As long as Lepchenko stays in the moment and doesn't start looking ahead, I think she has a very good chance of wearing down Zhang in this one. Credit the latter for a very strong tournament, but Zhang has to eventually feel some pressure and physical ailments from a long ten days of tennis. With this being a match that many will tell her she can win, Zhang might feel that pressure on Saturday in the Third Round and I will look for Lepchenko to come through.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez + 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Milos Raonic Win 3-1 @ 3.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Stan Wawrinka - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 9.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bernard Tomic - 6.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Ekaterina Makarova @ 1.90 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic @ 2.38 Bet365 (2 Units)
Varvara Lepchenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 14-29, - 29.12 Units (83 Units Staked, - 35.08% Yield)
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