Another week on the tennis Tour is in the books, but that only means five new tournaments are going to begin their main draws on Monday. We have three on the ATP Tour which is fully returned having also had Davis Cup action last week, while there are two events on the WTA Tour.
Three of the events being played this week are going to be played on the clay courts, but the other two events in Istanbul and in Bogota are hard court events with the biggest names out there this week being Venus Williams, Gael Monfils and David Goffin.
Some times you can look through a draw and players that might be Seeded to see that they are not the strongest and that is the case this week. However, it isn't wise to just dismiss the tournaments as players will be aware of the chance they have to pick up some vital Ranking points in the remainder of the month before the move to the North American hard courts and the return of some of the biggest names in the sport in preparation for the US Open.
Last week also some drama in the Davis Cup as Argentina, Australia, Belgium and Great Britain made it through to the Semi Finals in contrasting manners.
Argentina were comfortable 3-0 winners over Serbia, but had to give a huge amount of credit to Federico Delbonis who came back from 0-2 down in sets against Victor Troicki in the second rubber to put the home team in a commanding position.
Australia were 0-2 down in rubbers going into Saturday, but that is when Sam Groth and Lleyton Hewitt took over from younger compatriots Nick Kyrgios and Thanasi Kokkinakis to lead the team through. After partnering one another in the Doubles, both Groth and Hewitt were drafted in for the fourth and fifth rubbers and responded by winning six of seven sets to move through.
After Canada were missing their two top Singles players, it was no surprise that Belgium moved into the Semi Final with what was described as a 'professional' win by their captain and their Semi Final with Argentina looks a fascinating one to call. Belgium will be at home and have the stand out player in David Goffin, but Argentina look to have the better depth and I like their chances of progressing to another Davis Cup Final.
The final tie of the Quarter Finals saw Andy Murray line up for three straight days to help Great Britain move into the Semi Final and they are now favourites to win the Davis Cup. It will come down to Murray you feel and the home tie with Australia looks to be a brilliant one for everyone to look forward to, although the placement just a week after the end of the US Open is probably not ideal.
You would think it is going to come down to the Doubles again in September with Murray expected to win both rubbers and James Ward a big underdog to even win one, but you would understand Great Britain being a strong favourite right now. Ward has raised his game in Davis Cup in the past and Australia have a mix of players that are all 'inconsistent' to put things mildly and prone to perhaps throwing in a dud of a rubber.
Both Semi Finals should be fun ties though and the crowds should get their moneys worth when they take to the court in the middle of September.
Monday is really a day where the remaining qualifiers dominate, but a few of the main draw matches have been scheduled across the events. Last week looked like it was going to be a really disappointing one the week after Wimbledon, but late winners during the week has restricted the loss, but I will be expecting a much cleaner week this time around.
The tournaments in Bastad, Bogota and Umag on the ATP Tour have only scheduled a couple of main draw matches on the Monday and none of those have really appealed to me, but I have found a couple of matches that have come within my criteria.
However, I will have to wait until the markets are up to confirm that those picks fit with what I am looking for before they are posted here.
EDIT: There might be a few matches today, but none of those have been appealing enough for me to make a pick on Monday, but I am sure there will be a couple of picks from Tuesday once the schedules have been released.
Weekly Final: 12-12, - 2.10 Units (48 Units Staked, - 4.38% Yield)
Season 2015: + 35.25 Units (1146 Units Staked, + 3.08% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Featured post
NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)
We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland ...
Monday, 20 July 2015
Sunday, 19 July 2015
Davis Cup Tennis Picks 2015 (July 19th)
While Argentina and Belgium have booked their place in the Davis Cup Semi Final, the ties between Australia and Kazakhstan and Great Britain and France are going into the last day with their places in the Semi Final on the line.
Great Britain's Doubles win means they are now strong favourites to reach a surprising Semi Final, the first in the Davis Cup since 1981, and they will be hosting that Semi Final in September.
Andy Murray will be expected to beat Gilles Simon or Richard Gasquet on grass, while Great Britain will know who they are going to be playing with the Australia-Kazakhstan tie to be completed in the early hours of Sunday morning.
A Doubles win for Australia keeps them alive in the tie, and you have to make Australia the favourites to win the last couple of rubbers to move into what would be an awesome atmosphere against Great Britain. Both Nick Kyrgios and Thanasi Kokkinakis are going to have to be a lot better than they were on Friday if they are going to help Australia into the Semi Finals and I would be surprised if the captain decides to draft in Sam Groth or Lleyton Hewitt instead of either player.
Kazakhstan might feel their best chance is with Mikhail Kukushkin after an impressive win over Kokkinakis, but they have shown there is a depth of players who raise their game when in Davis Cup duty. It could be a very fun day in Darwin in the final two matches scheduled on Sunday.
Sunday is also going to see the Finals in Bastad, Bucharest and Newport all played, while the draws for next week events will all be ready as well as qualifying getting a little closer to being completed.
Nick Kyrgios-Mikhail Kukushkin Over 37.5 Total Games: The fourth rubber of the Australia-Kazakhstan tie sees the number one players of both nation competing as the home team looks to stay alive in this Quarter Final tie.
They will need Nick Kyrgios to play the big points much better than he did in a stunning loss in the second rubber against Aleksandr Nedovyesov. That match ended up being a four set loss for Kyrgios who served well for the most part, but couldn't really get into any return games and was beaten in four very close sets.
It won't get easier against Mikhail Kukushkin who was in very good form in his straight sets win over Thanasi Kokkinakis as he kept his younger opponent under pressure throughout that match. It wasn't just the decent serving day that Kukushkin produced, but it was his return that was particularly effective and helped him bring up 16 break points through the match.
I would be surprised if Kyrgios is as generous as Kokkinakis was in that match, but I also think he might be put under some scoreboard pressure with the way Kukushkin has been playing.
I have to say I also didn't respect how much Kukushkin has raised his game when representing Kazakhstan and I think this is a player that will feel he has to get this done for his nation to lead them into the Semi Finals. After pushing Andy Murray all the way at Wimbledon and beating Kokkinakis here, I would be surprised if Kukushkin is blown away in this match.
He will have to serve well to keep the pressure on Kyrgios, but this looks a match that is going to go at least four sets with the possibility of at least two tie-breakers pretty high. Backing this match to go over the total games looks a decent price and I am expecting another tight match for Nick Kyrgios but perhaps one he can win the big points and keep Australia alive for the final rubber of the tie.
Thanasi Kokkinakis-Aleksandr Nedovyesov Over 39.5 Total Games: Even if Australia are to tie up this Quarter Final in rubber four, I am still expecting the fifth rubber to be tightly fought. That is especially the case if both Thanasi Kokkinakis and Aleksandr Nedovyesov play in a similar manner to what they produced on Friday as they could have the deciding rubber on their racquets today.
I was severely disappointed by Kokkinakis in his straight sets loss, while I am still not convinced he is fully satisfied with playing on the grass. Instead of aiding his serve, Kokkinakis struggled to really protect that aspect of his game and was under constant pressure from Mikhail Kukushkin, but I think there is more to come from the youngster.
On the other hand, Alexsandr Nedovyesov produced arguably his best win of his career by beating Nick Kyrgios in four sets on a grass court. However, he is outside the top 100 in the World Rankings and it is hard to imagine Nedovyesov playing the big points as effectively as he did on Friday.
He will need to serve as well as he did in the second rubber if Kazakhstan are going to get through the tie and this another match that looks to go at least four sets with each set being tightly contested. I wouldn't be surprised if we need a couple of tie-breakers in this one too and I don't think any of the players go away quietly which should make this another rubber that can go over the total games being offered.
Andy Murray - 6.5 games v Gilles Simon: Great Britain have to win one of the two remaining rubbers in this Quarter Final tie to move into the Davis Cup Semi Finals for the first time since 1981. I don't think it is unfair to anyone to say that Great Britain know it is up to Andy Murray to win another rubber if they are going to win this tie as he is set to take on Gilles Simon in the fourth rubber of the tie.
It is a match to keep an eye on because there are some suggestions that Arnaud Clement is going to pick Richard Gasquet ahead of Gilles Simon, especially as Gasquet has given Andy Murray more problems in matches at Grand Slams.
While Simon did beat Murray in Rotterdam earlier this season for the loss of six gmes and he has also won a set in the two previous matches prior to Rotterdam, it has to be pointed out that Murray has won the two previous Grand Slam matches without dropping a set.
The match up is not a great one for Simon on the grass either as he doesn't have the same penetration on this surface as Murray, although he can make life difficult for a while. Both players had good Wimbledon tournaments until running into Roger Federer, but Andy Murray has the much deeper pedigree on this surface.
I'd imagine Simon keeps it competitive in perhaps two of the sets, but I think the serve can be vulnerable and Andy Murray is capable of earning a couple of breaks in a single set. I'd pick Murray to work his way through some difficult moments to win this match 75, 64, 62 which would give Great Britain the win.
Of course this match is dependent on France keeping Simon in ahead of Richard Gasquet, but I will make an edit here if there are changes in the hour leading up to this tie and if I have a new pick in place.
MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios-Mikhail Kukushkin Over 37.5 Total Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Thanasi Kokkinakis-Alexsandr Nedovyesov Over 39.5 Total Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-12, - 3.92 Units (46 Units Staked, - 8.52% Yield)
Great Britain's Doubles win means they are now strong favourites to reach a surprising Semi Final, the first in the Davis Cup since 1981, and they will be hosting that Semi Final in September.
Andy Murray will be expected to beat Gilles Simon or Richard Gasquet on grass, while Great Britain will know who they are going to be playing with the Australia-Kazakhstan tie to be completed in the early hours of Sunday morning.
A Doubles win for Australia keeps them alive in the tie, and you have to make Australia the favourites to win the last couple of rubbers to move into what would be an awesome atmosphere against Great Britain. Both Nick Kyrgios and Thanasi Kokkinakis are going to have to be a lot better than they were on Friday if they are going to help Australia into the Semi Finals and I would be surprised if the captain decides to draft in Sam Groth or Lleyton Hewitt instead of either player.
Kazakhstan might feel their best chance is with Mikhail Kukushkin after an impressive win over Kokkinakis, but they have shown there is a depth of players who raise their game when in Davis Cup duty. It could be a very fun day in Darwin in the final two matches scheduled on Sunday.
Sunday is also going to see the Finals in Bastad, Bucharest and Newport all played, while the draws for next week events will all be ready as well as qualifying getting a little closer to being completed.
Nick Kyrgios-Mikhail Kukushkin Over 37.5 Total Games: The fourth rubber of the Australia-Kazakhstan tie sees the number one players of both nation competing as the home team looks to stay alive in this Quarter Final tie.
They will need Nick Kyrgios to play the big points much better than he did in a stunning loss in the second rubber against Aleksandr Nedovyesov. That match ended up being a four set loss for Kyrgios who served well for the most part, but couldn't really get into any return games and was beaten in four very close sets.
It won't get easier against Mikhail Kukushkin who was in very good form in his straight sets win over Thanasi Kokkinakis as he kept his younger opponent under pressure throughout that match. It wasn't just the decent serving day that Kukushkin produced, but it was his return that was particularly effective and helped him bring up 16 break points through the match.
I would be surprised if Kyrgios is as generous as Kokkinakis was in that match, but I also think he might be put under some scoreboard pressure with the way Kukushkin has been playing.
I have to say I also didn't respect how much Kukushkin has raised his game when representing Kazakhstan and I think this is a player that will feel he has to get this done for his nation to lead them into the Semi Finals. After pushing Andy Murray all the way at Wimbledon and beating Kokkinakis here, I would be surprised if Kukushkin is blown away in this match.
He will have to serve well to keep the pressure on Kyrgios, but this looks a match that is going to go at least four sets with the possibility of at least two tie-breakers pretty high. Backing this match to go over the total games looks a decent price and I am expecting another tight match for Nick Kyrgios but perhaps one he can win the big points and keep Australia alive for the final rubber of the tie.
Thanasi Kokkinakis-Aleksandr Nedovyesov Over 39.5 Total Games: Even if Australia are to tie up this Quarter Final in rubber four, I am still expecting the fifth rubber to be tightly fought. That is especially the case if both Thanasi Kokkinakis and Aleksandr Nedovyesov play in a similar manner to what they produced on Friday as they could have the deciding rubber on their racquets today.
I was severely disappointed by Kokkinakis in his straight sets loss, while I am still not convinced he is fully satisfied with playing on the grass. Instead of aiding his serve, Kokkinakis struggled to really protect that aspect of his game and was under constant pressure from Mikhail Kukushkin, but I think there is more to come from the youngster.
On the other hand, Alexsandr Nedovyesov produced arguably his best win of his career by beating Nick Kyrgios in four sets on a grass court. However, he is outside the top 100 in the World Rankings and it is hard to imagine Nedovyesov playing the big points as effectively as he did on Friday.
He will need to serve as well as he did in the second rubber if Kazakhstan are going to get through the tie and this another match that looks to go at least four sets with each set being tightly contested. I wouldn't be surprised if we need a couple of tie-breakers in this one too and I don't think any of the players go away quietly which should make this another rubber that can go over the total games being offered.
Andy Murray - 6.5 games v Gilles Simon: Great Britain have to win one of the two remaining rubbers in this Quarter Final tie to move into the Davis Cup Semi Finals for the first time since 1981. I don't think it is unfair to anyone to say that Great Britain know it is up to Andy Murray to win another rubber if they are going to win this tie as he is set to take on Gilles Simon in the fourth rubber of the tie.
It is a match to keep an eye on because there are some suggestions that Arnaud Clement is going to pick Richard Gasquet ahead of Gilles Simon, especially as Gasquet has given Andy Murray more problems in matches at Grand Slams.
While Simon did beat Murray in Rotterdam earlier this season for the loss of six gmes and he has also won a set in the two previous matches prior to Rotterdam, it has to be pointed out that Murray has won the two previous Grand Slam matches without dropping a set.
The match up is not a great one for Simon on the grass either as he doesn't have the same penetration on this surface as Murray, although he can make life difficult for a while. Both players had good Wimbledon tournaments until running into Roger Federer, but Andy Murray has the much deeper pedigree on this surface.
I'd imagine Simon keeps it competitive in perhaps two of the sets, but I think the serve can be vulnerable and Andy Murray is capable of earning a couple of breaks in a single set. I'd pick Murray to work his way through some difficult moments to win this match 75, 64, 62 which would give Great Britain the win.
Of course this match is dependent on France keeping Simon in ahead of Richard Gasquet, but I will make an edit here if there are changes in the hour leading up to this tie and if I have a new pick in place.
MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios-Mikhail Kukushkin Over 37.5 Total Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Thanasi Kokkinakis-Alexsandr Nedovyesov Over 39.5 Total Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-12, - 3.92 Units (46 Units Staked, - 8.52% Yield)
Saturday, 18 July 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (July 18th)
The first day of the Davis Cup Quarter Finals are in the book and you have to say it was a fascinating day with surprises, big comebacks, and teams on the brink of making it through to the Semi Finals. In fact the ties in Australia, Belgium and Argentina could all be completed on Saturday if the leading nation wins the Doubles rubber, although I am convinced that at least one of those ties is going to be surprising most tennis fans.
Australia were hosting Kazakhstan on the grass courts in Darwin and I had them as a pretty strong favourite to progress to the Semi Final, but both Thanasi Kokkinakis and Nick Kyrgios were beaten on the first day to put their nation in a big hole. It is not quite over yet for Australia as they are likely the favourites to win the remaining three rubbers, but Kazakhstan have raised their game when the players join up for Davis Cup duty and they look set to move on to take on France or Great Britain.
With Argentina and Belgium both 2-0 up in their ties too, the closest tie going into the weekend and the only one guaranteed to have at least one match on Sunday is the one between Great Britain and France.
The Doubles rubber does look to be pivotal in the tie assuming Andy Murray is to win his remaining Singles rubber and the French will be big favourites to see off James Ward for a second time.
While the Doubles takes centre stage in the Davis Cup ties being played around the world, the tournaments in Bastad, Bucharest and Newport have reached the Semi Finals as those events come to a close. It is a real chance for some players to improve their Rankings while the 'big names' are having a break and the inconsistency lower down the World Rankings has been highlighted this week with a number of surprising names in the Semi Finals.
None of the players will care though as they have a chance to win a title which can't be taken off the record as those Semi Finals are played through the day.
Johanna Larsson - 2.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: There are only two places in the World Rankings that separate Johanna Larsson from Yulia Putintseva and the two players have both been in decent form to suggest this will be a close match.
Both players were Finalists in clay tournaments last week and have barely been pushed on their runs to the Semi Finals here in Bastad. However, I am giving the edge to Larsson who has enjoyed playing in front of her home fans as her previous results in Bastad have suggested and she has a couple of weapons that may give her the chance to progress to another Final here.
The first of those is the serve where Larsson is capable of getting some very good angles and decent kick from it which could be a problem for Putintseva to deal with. Putintseva is one of the smaller girls out on Tour and the kicker might make it difficult for her to get on the front foot like she likes to do and that might allow Larsson to also dictate points.
The second is the obvious fun that Larsson has playing in Bastad and she is more than capable of winning the title here. She seems to have been in more control of her own emotions and Putintseva never seems that far away from mentally getting down on herself as she showed in her Second Round match with Alize Lim.
It might need three sets to separate the players, but I like Larsson to find her way through to the Final with a 57, 64, 63 win in this Semi Final.
Sara Errani - 2.5 games v Monica Niculescu: Monica Niculescu is the last remaining home favourite in Bucharest having disposed of Andreea Mitu in the Quarter Final but this looks a tough match up for her. The Romanian might be one of the more awkward players on the Tour to play with her variation of play and slice off both wings, but Sara Errani has won the last three matches between them.
Sara Errani is someone who won't mind all the skilful tennis that is likely to be on display as she will feel she can grind down Niculescu in the longer, drawn out rallies that we will likely see.
I am expecting a lot of breaks of serve in this one as neither of the players have a powerful serve that is going to earn a lot of cheap points. However, I think Errani is the better clay court player even if she has slipped from the level she showed a couple of years ago.
I think the Italian has also shown a little better form this week and Errani should be capable of winning this match and moving into the Final if she is not distracted by the crowd or the shot selection Niculescu will use. It could be tight for a couple of sets, but Errani should then break clear by just knuckling down enough on serve and moving to the Final.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 games v Polona Hercog: It hasn't been a great week for the picks, but one player that I have backed with some success is Anna Karolina Schmiedlova. I see no reason to not back her again in this Semi Final against Polona Hercog even if the latter has been in good form this week too.
As impressive as Hercog has been in moving into the Semi Final having lost just fifteen games in three matches, Schmiedlova has been even better with just ten games lost in the same number of matches. Both have had some impressive wins, but I do think Schmiedlova's run has been the better of the two and she may also hold the mental edge having beaten Hercog in Miami as the underdog earlier this season.
It is Schmiedlova who has had the better success on this surface, but this has the makings of a close match where Schmiedlova will have to play the big points as well as she did in the Quarter Final.
The week has been a good one for Hercog, but she had been struggling prior to this time in Bucharest and I think her run comes to an end here. Schmiedlova should note that Hercog is someone that does enjoy playing the drop shots, but dealing with those and being aware of that shot should aid her in a fairly routine win.
MY PICKS: Johanna Larsson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-12, - 9.22 Units (40 Units Staked, - 23.05% Yield)
Australia were hosting Kazakhstan on the grass courts in Darwin and I had them as a pretty strong favourite to progress to the Semi Final, but both Thanasi Kokkinakis and Nick Kyrgios were beaten on the first day to put their nation in a big hole. It is not quite over yet for Australia as they are likely the favourites to win the remaining three rubbers, but Kazakhstan have raised their game when the players join up for Davis Cup duty and they look set to move on to take on France or Great Britain.
With Argentina and Belgium both 2-0 up in their ties too, the closest tie going into the weekend and the only one guaranteed to have at least one match on Sunday is the one between Great Britain and France.
The Doubles rubber does look to be pivotal in the tie assuming Andy Murray is to win his remaining Singles rubber and the French will be big favourites to see off James Ward for a second time.
While the Doubles takes centre stage in the Davis Cup ties being played around the world, the tournaments in Bastad, Bucharest and Newport have reached the Semi Finals as those events come to a close. It is a real chance for some players to improve their Rankings while the 'big names' are having a break and the inconsistency lower down the World Rankings has been highlighted this week with a number of surprising names in the Semi Finals.
None of the players will care though as they have a chance to win a title which can't be taken off the record as those Semi Finals are played through the day.
Johanna Larsson - 2.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: There are only two places in the World Rankings that separate Johanna Larsson from Yulia Putintseva and the two players have both been in decent form to suggest this will be a close match.
Both players were Finalists in clay tournaments last week and have barely been pushed on their runs to the Semi Finals here in Bastad. However, I am giving the edge to Larsson who has enjoyed playing in front of her home fans as her previous results in Bastad have suggested and she has a couple of weapons that may give her the chance to progress to another Final here.
The first of those is the serve where Larsson is capable of getting some very good angles and decent kick from it which could be a problem for Putintseva to deal with. Putintseva is one of the smaller girls out on Tour and the kicker might make it difficult for her to get on the front foot like she likes to do and that might allow Larsson to also dictate points.
The second is the obvious fun that Larsson has playing in Bastad and she is more than capable of winning the title here. She seems to have been in more control of her own emotions and Putintseva never seems that far away from mentally getting down on herself as she showed in her Second Round match with Alize Lim.
It might need three sets to separate the players, but I like Larsson to find her way through to the Final with a 57, 64, 63 win in this Semi Final.
Sara Errani - 2.5 games v Monica Niculescu: Monica Niculescu is the last remaining home favourite in Bucharest having disposed of Andreea Mitu in the Quarter Final but this looks a tough match up for her. The Romanian might be one of the more awkward players on the Tour to play with her variation of play and slice off both wings, but Sara Errani has won the last three matches between them.
Sara Errani is someone who won't mind all the skilful tennis that is likely to be on display as she will feel she can grind down Niculescu in the longer, drawn out rallies that we will likely see.
I am expecting a lot of breaks of serve in this one as neither of the players have a powerful serve that is going to earn a lot of cheap points. However, I think Errani is the better clay court player even if she has slipped from the level she showed a couple of years ago.
I think the Italian has also shown a little better form this week and Errani should be capable of winning this match and moving into the Final if she is not distracted by the crowd or the shot selection Niculescu will use. It could be tight for a couple of sets, but Errani should then break clear by just knuckling down enough on serve and moving to the Final.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 games v Polona Hercog: It hasn't been a great week for the picks, but one player that I have backed with some success is Anna Karolina Schmiedlova. I see no reason to not back her again in this Semi Final against Polona Hercog even if the latter has been in good form this week too.
As impressive as Hercog has been in moving into the Semi Final having lost just fifteen games in three matches, Schmiedlova has been even better with just ten games lost in the same number of matches. Both have had some impressive wins, but I do think Schmiedlova's run has been the better of the two and she may also hold the mental edge having beaten Hercog in Miami as the underdog earlier this season.
It is Schmiedlova who has had the better success on this surface, but this has the makings of a close match where Schmiedlova will have to play the big points as well as she did in the Quarter Final.
The week has been a good one for Hercog, but she had been struggling prior to this time in Bucharest and I think her run comes to an end here. Schmiedlova should note that Hercog is someone that does enjoy playing the drop shots, but dealing with those and being aware of that shot should aid her in a fairly routine win.
MY PICKS: Johanna Larsson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sara Errani - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-12, - 9.22 Units (40 Units Staked, - 23.05% Yield)
Friday, 17 July 2015
Davis Cup Tennis Picks (July 17th)
The Davis Cup Quarter Finals are beginning this Friday and we also have the business end of the tournaments in Bastad, Bucharest and Newport that will be concluded by Sunday.
I have backed Serbia and Australia in the Outright Markets for the Davis Cup earlier this year, but I think the former are looking very vulnerable as they head to Argentina without Novak Djokovic. Victor Troicki has been playing well, but I am not convinced he is as effective on the clay courts and now Serbia will be facing an Argentina team very comfortable on the surface and with the home crowd behind them.
I do think Australia will be alright against Kazakhstan, while Belgium are strong favourites to beat a Canada team without Milos Raonic or Vasek Pospisil.
The remaining tie is perhaps the most evenly matched on paper as Great Britain take on France at Queens Club with Andy Murray in the line up and expected to win two rubbers. The key for Great Britain is either hoping James Ward can produce something special as he has in recent Davis Cup ties, but the bigger opportunity might come in the Doubles where France are missing specialist Julien Benneteau.
However, both Nicolas Mahut and Richard Gasquet have played well as Doubles players in the past too and I do think France are the worthy narrow favourites in this tie.
With the tournaments spread over the day, some of the markets are not up when I am writing this post so any additional picks will be put up during the day if I do find any picks to go with.
Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: Playing on the grass courts should give the young Australian players a chance to build a good lead on the opening day of this Davis Cup Quarter Final and I think Thanasi Kokkinankis can get them off to a good start.
Don't get me wrong, I still think Kokkinakis has to find his feet on this surface having really struggled with his return game in early defeats at Queens Club and Wimbledon. The former loss to Gilles Simon was more forgivable as Kokkinakis had to make a trip back to Australia prior to that to see an ill family member, but the defeat to Leonardo Mayer at Wimbledon was perhaps a disappointment.
He did show his character in winning his first live Davis Cup tie earlier this year from two sets down against Lukas Rosol away from home and I expect Kokkinakis to be inspired in Darwin in front of a full support.
Kokkinakis has to be aware of how well Mikhail Kukushkin has played for Kazakhstan in Davis Cup action, although grass is not his favoured surface. Kukushkin is 15-9 for Kazakhstan in Davis Cup matches, although he is just 3-2 outdoors and more worrying has to be the fact he has lost his last 5 live Davis Cup rubbers on the road.
I expect Kukushkin does cause some problems because he has a decent serve and is a talented player that caused Andy Murray some considerable problems at Wimbledon. His experience of playing away Davis Cup rubbers will help him, but I just think Kokkinakis can put some scoreboard pressure on him with his own service games.
The layers are right in thinking this might be closer than some might think, but I think the long journey to Australia, playing on his weakest surface and Kokkinakis winning a big Davis Cup rubber already this season goes against Kukushkin. It might need four sets, but I like the Australian's to win this one and Kokkinakis to cover this number.
James Ward-Gilles Simon Over 3.5 Sets: Over the last couple of years, James Ward has done his best to raise his level when it comes to Davis Cup rubbers and he is 3-3 in live rubbers in that time. The two defeats in Italy on the clay against Fabio Fognini are forgivable losses for Ward, but he has dug in deep to beat the likes of John Isner, Sam Querrey and Dmitry Tursunov in that time.
Those wins have encouraged Andy Murray to play for Great Britain despite some of the awkward timing of the Davis Cup which has kept many of the top ten players in the World Rankings from taking part. However, Murray recognises that Great Britain have some sort of chance with Ward producing the goods and the entire team will be hoping the Londoner can use previous success at Queens Club to help Great Britain take the lead in this Quarter Final with France.
James Ward reached a Semi Final at Queens in the past and only recently was a Third Round player at Wimbledon which has helped him crack the top 100 in the World Rankings for the first time in his career. He is going to need to be at his best against Gilles Simon who has had a very productive grass court season and was a Quarter Finalist in SW19 earlier this month.
However, I think Ward has a real chance of coming close to an upset in this one as Simon has struggled representing France in the past and is just 5-9 in Davis Cup rubbers. Gilles Simon beat Jan-Lennard Struff earlier this season in France's victory over Germany in the Davis Cup which ended a run of 4 consecutive live rubber losses and was also Simon's first appearance in two seasons.
While he has played well, Simon does have a game which will always give someone a chance of breaking serve. On this surface it might only take one break to settle a set and while I think he might be too consistent for Ward, I'd be surprised if this is a match that is concluded in three sets. James Ward has ended up in some very tough, long matches in Davis Cup in recent years and this could easily be another.
Andy Murray-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Over 3.5 sets: The second rubber on the opening day of this Davis Cup Quarter Final has every chance of at least going three sets too, especially if Jo-Wilfried Tsonga can get some joy out of the Andy Murray second serve.
It is going to be interesting to see how Murray is coping with his surprisingly one-sided defeat to Roger Federer in the Wimbledon Semi Finals, while the British Number 1 will know all about Tsonga. This will be the fifth meeting between the two on grass and while Andy Murray has won the last four, it has to be said that Tsonga has won at least one set in all of those matches.
That includes a couple of three setters at Queens Club in the past and Tsonga is capable of taking the racquet out of Murray's hands if he is serving well and sees enough second serves to attack. His recent form has not been much to write home about as Tsonga had to miss the majority of the grass court season with an injury and was a disappointing Third Round loser to Ivo Karlovic at Wimbledon.
I make Andy Murray a strong favourite to win, but both players have performed very well in Singles duty in Davis Cup and that should inspire Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win at least one set. I think both players will be able to win a set, but Murray is likely to outlast Tsonga from a fitness perspective and eventually come through in four sets. However, I would rather back this match lasting at least four sets which looks a big price considering how previous matches between the two have gone.
Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga have some doubts surrounding them after Wimbledon came to a close and this could be close for a while before Murray takes control.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 games v Danka Kovinic: Both players have been in good form this week in Bucharest and they could be playing late in the evening which is good news for Danka Kovinic. She had a long, tough match against Julia Goerges in the Second Round, but has been given all the time she will need to be ready for this match, although I have to say Anna Karolina Schmiedlova has been looking very strong.
Matches between them in the past have been split two each and it was Kovinic won their most recent match last year on the hard courts in three tight sets. Back to back long weeks for Kovinic might play a part in this match as an accumulation of fatigue is potentially one hindrance to the player from Montenegro in this Quarter Final.
Both players have had the majority of their success on the clay courts this season, but it is a surface that Kovinic spends much more time on than Schmiedlova. I am not sure that will be enough to see her overcome her opponent who has been serving well and hitting the ball sweetly this week.
As much as I respect Kovinic at this level on this surface, I think Schmiedlova breaks her down in a three set win.
Jan Hernych + 3.5 games v Jack Sock: The tournament in Newport has regularly sprung up some surprise results in the past and this year looks to be no different. The first Semi Final was set last night as Rajeev Ram gets set to take on John-Patrick Smith on Saturday and those two names are not exactly renowned for their impact on the Singles Tour.
There is every chance that Jan Hernych could be another surprise Semi Finalist if he continues building on the momentum which has seen him qualify and win two matches in the main draw. My concern for the veteran won't just be his opponent Jack Sock, who looks the best player left in the draw, but also the fact that he had to play a long, long match with Alejandro Falla in the Second Round.
Three tie-breakers were needed for Hernych to see off Falla, but he did get Thursday off which should help him restore some energy. He is an older player, but Hernych should use the fact he beat Sock here two years ago to give him some mental confidence, as well as the fact that the courts seem to be playing very low which is good for someone who will attack the net and look to volley.
Sock has been a mixed bag in his first two performances here and grass is still a surface that he is getting to grips with as a Singles player. He did win the Doubles title at Wimbledon last year, but I am not sure Sock is happiest on this surface and his serve has not been as solid as he would have liked.
If Hernych serves well, I would expect him to keep this close and perhaps steal a set which will give him a good chance to stay within this number.
Federico Delbonis v Victor Troicki: If there is anything to learn from the Kazakhstan performances in the Davis Cup over the last few years, it is that some player really raise their game when it comes to representing their country in this competition. Victor Troicki has done that for Serbia with his 14-9 record in Davis Cup Singles matches, although the leading player for his nation in this tie has a 2-4 record on clay which is arguably his worst surface.
Argentina will be hoping that is a key for their path through to the Davis Cup Semi Finals and Federico Delbonis has been given one of the matches on the opening day of the Quarter Final. He has been rewarded for winning the vital fifth rubber against Brazil and there is little doubt that Delbonis is most at home on the clay courts.
While Delbonis has a lot of Ranking places to make up, it has to be said that he is 26-18 on the clay in main Tour events over the last two seasons while Troicki is just 6-7. That hasn't been missed by the layers who make this a pick 'em contest, but I think Troicki has been playing a lot of tennis over the last month and might struggle with against a decent clay courter.
Delbonis should be set to go having won a Challenger on the clay last month and only playing a single match on grass which means he has been preparing in Buenos Aires for some time. His experience of winning a decisive fifth rubber should help him in this one and I think Delbonis puts Argentina into a commanding position on the first day.
I like what Troicki has done since returning to the Tour and I do think he will be inspired by being the Number 1 Serbian player, but this is his worst surface and I think it will be tough for him to deal with someone as comfortable on clay as Delbonis.
MY PICKS: Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
James Ward-Gilles Simon Over 3.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Over 3.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jan Hernych + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-9, - 7.04 Units (30 Units Staked, - 23.47% Yield)
I have backed Serbia and Australia in the Outright Markets for the Davis Cup earlier this year, but I think the former are looking very vulnerable as they head to Argentina without Novak Djokovic. Victor Troicki has been playing well, but I am not convinced he is as effective on the clay courts and now Serbia will be facing an Argentina team very comfortable on the surface and with the home crowd behind them.
I do think Australia will be alright against Kazakhstan, while Belgium are strong favourites to beat a Canada team without Milos Raonic or Vasek Pospisil.
The remaining tie is perhaps the most evenly matched on paper as Great Britain take on France at Queens Club with Andy Murray in the line up and expected to win two rubbers. The key for Great Britain is either hoping James Ward can produce something special as he has in recent Davis Cup ties, but the bigger opportunity might come in the Doubles where France are missing specialist Julien Benneteau.
However, both Nicolas Mahut and Richard Gasquet have played well as Doubles players in the past too and I do think France are the worthy narrow favourites in this tie.
With the tournaments spread over the day, some of the markets are not up when I am writing this post so any additional picks will be put up during the day if I do find any picks to go with.
Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: Playing on the grass courts should give the young Australian players a chance to build a good lead on the opening day of this Davis Cup Quarter Final and I think Thanasi Kokkinankis can get them off to a good start.
Don't get me wrong, I still think Kokkinakis has to find his feet on this surface having really struggled with his return game in early defeats at Queens Club and Wimbledon. The former loss to Gilles Simon was more forgivable as Kokkinakis had to make a trip back to Australia prior to that to see an ill family member, but the defeat to Leonardo Mayer at Wimbledon was perhaps a disappointment.
He did show his character in winning his first live Davis Cup tie earlier this year from two sets down against Lukas Rosol away from home and I expect Kokkinakis to be inspired in Darwin in front of a full support.
Kokkinakis has to be aware of how well Mikhail Kukushkin has played for Kazakhstan in Davis Cup action, although grass is not his favoured surface. Kukushkin is 15-9 for Kazakhstan in Davis Cup matches, although he is just 3-2 outdoors and more worrying has to be the fact he has lost his last 5 live Davis Cup rubbers on the road.
I expect Kukushkin does cause some problems because he has a decent serve and is a talented player that caused Andy Murray some considerable problems at Wimbledon. His experience of playing away Davis Cup rubbers will help him, but I just think Kokkinakis can put some scoreboard pressure on him with his own service games.
The layers are right in thinking this might be closer than some might think, but I think the long journey to Australia, playing on his weakest surface and Kokkinakis winning a big Davis Cup rubber already this season goes against Kukushkin. It might need four sets, but I like the Australian's to win this one and Kokkinakis to cover this number.
James Ward-Gilles Simon Over 3.5 Sets: Over the last couple of years, James Ward has done his best to raise his level when it comes to Davis Cup rubbers and he is 3-3 in live rubbers in that time. The two defeats in Italy on the clay against Fabio Fognini are forgivable losses for Ward, but he has dug in deep to beat the likes of John Isner, Sam Querrey and Dmitry Tursunov in that time.
Those wins have encouraged Andy Murray to play for Great Britain despite some of the awkward timing of the Davis Cup which has kept many of the top ten players in the World Rankings from taking part. However, Murray recognises that Great Britain have some sort of chance with Ward producing the goods and the entire team will be hoping the Londoner can use previous success at Queens Club to help Great Britain take the lead in this Quarter Final with France.
James Ward reached a Semi Final at Queens in the past and only recently was a Third Round player at Wimbledon which has helped him crack the top 100 in the World Rankings for the first time in his career. He is going to need to be at his best against Gilles Simon who has had a very productive grass court season and was a Quarter Finalist in SW19 earlier this month.
However, I think Ward has a real chance of coming close to an upset in this one as Simon has struggled representing France in the past and is just 5-9 in Davis Cup rubbers. Gilles Simon beat Jan-Lennard Struff earlier this season in France's victory over Germany in the Davis Cup which ended a run of 4 consecutive live rubber losses and was also Simon's first appearance in two seasons.
While he has played well, Simon does have a game which will always give someone a chance of breaking serve. On this surface it might only take one break to settle a set and while I think he might be too consistent for Ward, I'd be surprised if this is a match that is concluded in three sets. James Ward has ended up in some very tough, long matches in Davis Cup in recent years and this could easily be another.
Andy Murray-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Over 3.5 sets: The second rubber on the opening day of this Davis Cup Quarter Final has every chance of at least going three sets too, especially if Jo-Wilfried Tsonga can get some joy out of the Andy Murray second serve.
It is going to be interesting to see how Murray is coping with his surprisingly one-sided defeat to Roger Federer in the Wimbledon Semi Finals, while the British Number 1 will know all about Tsonga. This will be the fifth meeting between the two on grass and while Andy Murray has won the last four, it has to be said that Tsonga has won at least one set in all of those matches.
That includes a couple of three setters at Queens Club in the past and Tsonga is capable of taking the racquet out of Murray's hands if he is serving well and sees enough second serves to attack. His recent form has not been much to write home about as Tsonga had to miss the majority of the grass court season with an injury and was a disappointing Third Round loser to Ivo Karlovic at Wimbledon.
I make Andy Murray a strong favourite to win, but both players have performed very well in Singles duty in Davis Cup and that should inspire Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win at least one set. I think both players will be able to win a set, but Murray is likely to outlast Tsonga from a fitness perspective and eventually come through in four sets. However, I would rather back this match lasting at least four sets which looks a big price considering how previous matches between the two have gone.
Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga have some doubts surrounding them after Wimbledon came to a close and this could be close for a while before Murray takes control.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 games v Danka Kovinic: Both players have been in good form this week in Bucharest and they could be playing late in the evening which is good news for Danka Kovinic. She had a long, tough match against Julia Goerges in the Second Round, but has been given all the time she will need to be ready for this match, although I have to say Anna Karolina Schmiedlova has been looking very strong.
Matches between them in the past have been split two each and it was Kovinic won their most recent match last year on the hard courts in three tight sets. Back to back long weeks for Kovinic might play a part in this match as an accumulation of fatigue is potentially one hindrance to the player from Montenegro in this Quarter Final.
Both players have had the majority of their success on the clay courts this season, but it is a surface that Kovinic spends much more time on than Schmiedlova. I am not sure that will be enough to see her overcome her opponent who has been serving well and hitting the ball sweetly this week.
As much as I respect Kovinic at this level on this surface, I think Schmiedlova breaks her down in a three set win.
Jan Hernych + 3.5 games v Jack Sock: The tournament in Newport has regularly sprung up some surprise results in the past and this year looks to be no different. The first Semi Final was set last night as Rajeev Ram gets set to take on John-Patrick Smith on Saturday and those two names are not exactly renowned for their impact on the Singles Tour.
There is every chance that Jan Hernych could be another surprise Semi Finalist if he continues building on the momentum which has seen him qualify and win two matches in the main draw. My concern for the veteran won't just be his opponent Jack Sock, who looks the best player left in the draw, but also the fact that he had to play a long, long match with Alejandro Falla in the Second Round.
Three tie-breakers were needed for Hernych to see off Falla, but he did get Thursday off which should help him restore some energy. He is an older player, but Hernych should use the fact he beat Sock here two years ago to give him some mental confidence, as well as the fact that the courts seem to be playing very low which is good for someone who will attack the net and look to volley.
Sock has been a mixed bag in his first two performances here and grass is still a surface that he is getting to grips with as a Singles player. He did win the Doubles title at Wimbledon last year, but I am not sure Sock is happiest on this surface and his serve has not been as solid as he would have liked.
If Hernych serves well, I would expect him to keep this close and perhaps steal a set which will give him a good chance to stay within this number.
Federico Delbonis v Victor Troicki: If there is anything to learn from the Kazakhstan performances in the Davis Cup over the last few years, it is that some player really raise their game when it comes to representing their country in this competition. Victor Troicki has done that for Serbia with his 14-9 record in Davis Cup Singles matches, although the leading player for his nation in this tie has a 2-4 record on clay which is arguably his worst surface.
Argentina will be hoping that is a key for their path through to the Davis Cup Semi Finals and Federico Delbonis has been given one of the matches on the opening day of the Quarter Final. He has been rewarded for winning the vital fifth rubber against Brazil and there is little doubt that Delbonis is most at home on the clay courts.
While Delbonis has a lot of Ranking places to make up, it has to be said that he is 26-18 on the clay in main Tour events over the last two seasons while Troicki is just 6-7. That hasn't been missed by the layers who make this a pick 'em contest, but I think Troicki has been playing a lot of tennis over the last month and might struggle with against a decent clay courter.
Delbonis should be set to go having won a Challenger on the clay last month and only playing a single match on grass which means he has been preparing in Buenos Aires for some time. His experience of winning a decisive fifth rubber should help him in this one and I think Delbonis puts Argentina into a commanding position on the first day.
I like what Troicki has done since returning to the Tour and I do think he will be inspired by being the Number 1 Serbian player, but this is his worst surface and I think it will be tough for him to deal with someone as comfortable on clay as Delbonis.
MY PICKS: Thanasi Kokkinakis - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
James Ward-Gilles Simon Over 3.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Over 3.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jan Hernych + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Federico Delbonis @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-9, - 7.04 Units (30 Units Staked, - 23.47% Yield)
Thursday, 16 July 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (July 16th)
Wednesday has proved to be a really miserable day for the picks with the frustration summed up by the vast difference in terms of double faults from the players I picked compared with their opponents.
While double faults aren't going to lose matches on their own, it doesn't help when you are giving your opponent a host of free points and that did make a difference in whether matches and picks were being won or lost.
It truly was a poor day in the office, but Thursday is another day and hopefully one that can produce a lot more positives than Wednesday did.
Any picks from Newport will be put up on Thursday lunchtime, which is still plenty of time before the first match is scheduled to begin, once the markets are up from the layers.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova v Denisa Allertova: A Second Round match in Bucharest is almost a pick 'em contest as Anna Karolina Schmiedlova and Denisa Allertova look for a big win. With both players Ranked inside the top 80 in the World, both will also know this field gives them some chance to really pick up some vital Ranking points if they can get through this Second Round match.
It was Schmiedlova who came through the First Round with more ease, but Allertova's win was impressive too even if it went the distance. The clay courts suit both Schmiedlova and Allertova and they have had considerable success on the Tour at both main Tour level as well as in those events below that tier.
This should be a tough match where both players will be involved in some long rallies, but I think Schmiedlova has the slightly stronger serve which will help produce shorter, more effective points.
It will be hard for Allertova to keep having to win the longer points to stay with Schmiedlova if the latter is serving effectively. While there should be a few breaks of serve for both players, I expect Schmiedlova is the one standing and moving into the Quarter Finals.
Sorana Cirstea v Andreea Mitu: Two home favourites meet in the Second Round, the second time they have met in a little over a week as Sorana Cirstea looks to frank her win over Andreea Mitu from last week.
After her breakthrough years on the Tour in 2012 and 2013, Sorana Cirstea has slipped down the Rankings and it has been a poor season for her. There is talent there, but Cirstea's consistency has completely left her and her win in the First Round is the first victory on the main Tour in 2015, a far cry from her 32 wins in 2013 at this level.
Cirstea failed to qualify for the French Open, but she did beat Mitu in two tight sets last week on the clay and will feel she can beat her compatriot again. Mitu did reach the Fourth Round at Roland Garros but her three wins there account for half of her main Tour wins for the season.
The younger Romanian has had some real success below the main WTA Tour level, but I do wonder if Mitu has an inferiority complex to overcome. While she was building her way onto the Tour, she would have seen Cirstea really enjoying some success and I do wonder if she has the 'belief' to win a match like this.
The couple of wins that Cirstea had last week should have improved confidence if her First Round success is anything to go by. As well as Mitu played at Roland Garros, she has been in poor form since losing in the Fourth Round there and I am looking for Cirstea to frank the victory she had over Mitu last week.
Yulia Putintseva - 4.5 games v Alize Lim: If there is one player that perhaps garners a little more attention than her World Ranking would suggest she should be getting, I would pick Alize Lim as that player. She is dating Jeremy Chardy, a much higher Ranked player on the ATP Tour, but Lim seems to be more popular for social media posts and pictures.
She has had a good week already in Bastad and a place in the Quarter Finals could see a huge improvement in her Ranking, but Alize Lim faces a big task to knock off Yulia Putintseva.
Both players had a decent week last week too with Lim winning an event and Putintseva reaching the Final on another on clay, although tennis is all about tiers and Lim's was much lower than Putintseva's.
Three good wins is impressive from Lim this week, but generally she does play in much weaker events than someone like Putintseva. The latter has had some decent results on clay this season and is beginning to be more comfortable at the highest level of the WTA Tour and I do think she will be a little too consistent for Lim in this one.
A 64, 63 win for Putintseva looks to be on the cards and it looks a big price for her to cover this number of games.
Serena Williams - 7.5 games v Klara Koukalova: There really isn't a lot to say about this Second Round match except it might be a surprise to many to see Serena Williams out on the Tour just days after winning Wimbledon. The fact that she is back at Bastad for the second time in three seasons playing a clay court event should say she really enjoyed the last time she played here as she dominated on her way to winning the title.
Unsurprisingly, Williams was a dominant First Round winner on Wednesday as she was given an extra day to get herself ready after winning the title at SW19 on Saturday. Serena Williams admitted the move from grass to clay is not a troubling one and she should be far too good for Klara Koukalova who is the same age as Williams, but nowhere near as effective these days.
All the talk in the build up was about the tight matches these two played on the clay a few years ago, but the 60, 64 win for Williams against Koukalova here two years ago has been ignored.
This is still a big number for Williams to cover if she is not quite on her game, but she looked confident on Wednesday. It also has to be said that Koukalova has taken some heavy losses this season including a 61, 63 loss to Kristina Kucova last week and I do wonder how she contains the World Number 1.
When Williams played in Bastad two years ago, she hammered her way to the title and I think she is going to be far too good for Koukalova as she was two years ago. This time it might be a 63, 61 win for the World Number 1 and holder of all four WTA Grand Slams.
Anna-Lena Friedsam + 2.5 games v Johanna Larsson: The home crowd are going to be fully behind Johanna Larsson to continue her positive last two weeks as she begins to return to full fitness on the Tour. After reaching the Final at an event in Versmold last week, Larsson was given an extra day before having her First Round match scheduled and responded with a straight forward win.
The match up with Anna-Lena Friedsdam is going to be a very difficult one as the German has shown she is comfortable playing on the clay courts. The most obvious highlight of her season was holding a set lead over Serena Williams at Roland Garros before being defeated, and her best results have come on the surface this season.
Friedsam is still young and that has seen her produce a lot of inconsistent performances which makes me wonder if she can see off Larsson in this Second Round match. However, it also has to be pointed out that Larsson had to dig deep to reach the Final last week and I do wonder how much has been left in the tank for Bastad.
I can understand why Larsson is the favourite though as she has had some positive results on the clay herself. She is also very comfortable playing at home as shown by two previous Finals and a Semi Final in Bastad before a First Round loss last season. I do think Larsson likely wins, but Friedsam has enough to take a set and make this competitive in a match that might be very close.
MY PICKS: Anna Karolina Schmiedlova @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yulia Putintseva - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anna-Lena Friedsam + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-7, - 6.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 30.64% Yield)
While double faults aren't going to lose matches on their own, it doesn't help when you are giving your opponent a host of free points and that did make a difference in whether matches and picks were being won or lost.
It truly was a poor day in the office, but Thursday is another day and hopefully one that can produce a lot more positives than Wednesday did.
Any picks from Newport will be put up on Thursday lunchtime, which is still plenty of time before the first match is scheduled to begin, once the markets are up from the layers.
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova v Denisa Allertova: A Second Round match in Bucharest is almost a pick 'em contest as Anna Karolina Schmiedlova and Denisa Allertova look for a big win. With both players Ranked inside the top 80 in the World, both will also know this field gives them some chance to really pick up some vital Ranking points if they can get through this Second Round match.
It was Schmiedlova who came through the First Round with more ease, but Allertova's win was impressive too even if it went the distance. The clay courts suit both Schmiedlova and Allertova and they have had considerable success on the Tour at both main Tour level as well as in those events below that tier.
This should be a tough match where both players will be involved in some long rallies, but I think Schmiedlova has the slightly stronger serve which will help produce shorter, more effective points.
It will be hard for Allertova to keep having to win the longer points to stay with Schmiedlova if the latter is serving effectively. While there should be a few breaks of serve for both players, I expect Schmiedlova is the one standing and moving into the Quarter Finals.
Sorana Cirstea v Andreea Mitu: Two home favourites meet in the Second Round, the second time they have met in a little over a week as Sorana Cirstea looks to frank her win over Andreea Mitu from last week.
After her breakthrough years on the Tour in 2012 and 2013, Sorana Cirstea has slipped down the Rankings and it has been a poor season for her. There is talent there, but Cirstea's consistency has completely left her and her win in the First Round is the first victory on the main Tour in 2015, a far cry from her 32 wins in 2013 at this level.
Cirstea failed to qualify for the French Open, but she did beat Mitu in two tight sets last week on the clay and will feel she can beat her compatriot again. Mitu did reach the Fourth Round at Roland Garros but her three wins there account for half of her main Tour wins for the season.
The younger Romanian has had some real success below the main WTA Tour level, but I do wonder if Mitu has an inferiority complex to overcome. While she was building her way onto the Tour, she would have seen Cirstea really enjoying some success and I do wonder if she has the 'belief' to win a match like this.
The couple of wins that Cirstea had last week should have improved confidence if her First Round success is anything to go by. As well as Mitu played at Roland Garros, she has been in poor form since losing in the Fourth Round there and I am looking for Cirstea to frank the victory she had over Mitu last week.
Yulia Putintseva - 4.5 games v Alize Lim: If there is one player that perhaps garners a little more attention than her World Ranking would suggest she should be getting, I would pick Alize Lim as that player. She is dating Jeremy Chardy, a much higher Ranked player on the ATP Tour, but Lim seems to be more popular for social media posts and pictures.
She has had a good week already in Bastad and a place in the Quarter Finals could see a huge improvement in her Ranking, but Alize Lim faces a big task to knock off Yulia Putintseva.
Both players had a decent week last week too with Lim winning an event and Putintseva reaching the Final on another on clay, although tennis is all about tiers and Lim's was much lower than Putintseva's.
Three good wins is impressive from Lim this week, but generally she does play in much weaker events than someone like Putintseva. The latter has had some decent results on clay this season and is beginning to be more comfortable at the highest level of the WTA Tour and I do think she will be a little too consistent for Lim in this one.
A 64, 63 win for Putintseva looks to be on the cards and it looks a big price for her to cover this number of games.
Serena Williams - 7.5 games v Klara Koukalova: There really isn't a lot to say about this Second Round match except it might be a surprise to many to see Serena Williams out on the Tour just days after winning Wimbledon. The fact that she is back at Bastad for the second time in three seasons playing a clay court event should say she really enjoyed the last time she played here as she dominated on her way to winning the title.
Unsurprisingly, Williams was a dominant First Round winner on Wednesday as she was given an extra day to get herself ready after winning the title at SW19 on Saturday. Serena Williams admitted the move from grass to clay is not a troubling one and she should be far too good for Klara Koukalova who is the same age as Williams, but nowhere near as effective these days.
All the talk in the build up was about the tight matches these two played on the clay a few years ago, but the 60, 64 win for Williams against Koukalova here two years ago has been ignored.
This is still a big number for Williams to cover if she is not quite on her game, but she looked confident on Wednesday. It also has to be said that Koukalova has taken some heavy losses this season including a 61, 63 loss to Kristina Kucova last week and I do wonder how she contains the World Number 1.
When Williams played in Bastad two years ago, she hammered her way to the title and I think she is going to be far too good for Koukalova as she was two years ago. This time it might be a 63, 61 win for the World Number 1 and holder of all four WTA Grand Slams.
Anna-Lena Friedsam + 2.5 games v Johanna Larsson: The home crowd are going to be fully behind Johanna Larsson to continue her positive last two weeks as she begins to return to full fitness on the Tour. After reaching the Final at an event in Versmold last week, Larsson was given an extra day before having her First Round match scheduled and responded with a straight forward win.
The match up with Anna-Lena Friedsdam is going to be a very difficult one as the German has shown she is comfortable playing on the clay courts. The most obvious highlight of her season was holding a set lead over Serena Williams at Roland Garros before being defeated, and her best results have come on the surface this season.
Friedsam is still young and that has seen her produce a lot of inconsistent performances which makes me wonder if she can see off Larsson in this Second Round match. However, it also has to be pointed out that Larsson had to dig deep to reach the Final last week and I do wonder how much has been left in the tank for Bastad.
I can understand why Larsson is the favourite though as she has had some positive results on the clay herself. She is also very comfortable playing at home as shown by two previous Finals and a Semi Final in Bastad before a First Round loss last season. I do think Larsson likely wins, but Friedsam has enough to take a set and make this competitive in a match that might be very close.
MY PICKS: Anna Karolina Schmiedlova @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Yulia Putintseva - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anna-Lena Friedsam + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-7, - 6.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 30.64% Yield)
Wednesday, 15 July 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (July 15th)
The layers all decided to take their sweet time getting the markets out for the tennis on Wednesday and that has meant I have had to wait until lunchtime to get the picks out.
Alexandra Dulgheru - 5.5 games v Shuai Zhang: This is a match that was rained off on Tuesday, but the layers have finally got the full market out for the match.
Alexandra Dulgheru is the home favourite and comes into the tournament having won a lower level tournament on the clay last week. She should be well adjusted, while the extra day of rest will certainly suit her as she bids to show off her form in front of her home support.
You would expect her to be too good for Shuai Zhang who has struggled on the clay courts at the main Tour level over the last couple of years. In those defeats, there have been plenty of times that Zhang has fallen away and now faces a player who would have covered big spreads regularly with the form displayed last week.
Dulgheru was beaten early in Bucharest this time last season, but I think she has a much better impact in the tournament this time around. Confidence should be on her side and I expect she finds a way to break down Zhang in a 64, 62 win.
Yuichi Sugita + 2.5 games v Rajeev Ram: It was a huge surprise on Tuesday to see Rajeev Ram get through John Isner in three sets and he is going to be expected to back that up in the Second Round. However, Yuichi Sugita is coming in off an impressive win over Ryan Harrison and showed enough form on the grass over the last month to think this anything but a straight forward match for the American.
Aside from a decent run in a Challenger event held in Manchester, Ram has been playing a lot more Doubles matches than Singles in recent weeks and it is hard to ignore that. In fact, the win over John Isner is the first Singles match he has played on the main Tour this season which should highlight the quality of field that has been attracted to Newport.
Backing up a big win over the Number 1 American player is going to be tough for Ram who is looking to progress beyond the Second Round in Newport for the first time since 2012. That year Ram managed to reach the Semi Final and it isn't like Sugita is a regular Singles player on the main Tour so you can understand why Ram is the favourite.
However, I think Sugita makes this a close match having qualified for the main draw at Wimbledon for the second season in a row and having some wins under his belt over the last month. Those did come in qualifiers, but that level is about where Ram is and Sugita has shown he is capable on the grass.
This match could go three sets which makes this number of games appealing as does the fact that Sugita is a live underdog and I will back him to cover.
Steve Johnson - 3.5 games v Tatsuma Ito: There has been an element of misfortune when Steve Johnson and Tatsuma Ito have met one another over the last twelve months as both matches have ended with a retirement. It was Ito who retired during their match in Newport, but Johnson who had to pull out of a match at the US Open so the first thing we have to hope is that this match will have a clear conclusion.
Johnson came through in three sets in his First Round match, but was given a huge helping hand from Michael Berrer, while Ito perhaps made harder work of Noah Rubin than would have been expected.
The match up should be a good one for Johnson as you would think he is has the more secure serve and is also comfortable at the net. The grass court season hasn't been as productive for the American as he may have liked, but Ito is a player that enjoys the majority of his success in the lower level than Johnson.
Ito did have one good run on the grass over the last month, but he was back playing a hard court tournament last week which shows his real appreciation for this surface. As long as Johnson serves with more consistency than he did in the early portion of his First Round match, I expect he wins this 64, 64.
Jan Hernych + 2.5 games v Alejandro Falla: After coming through three qualifiers and a First Round match, Jan Hernych is going to be in very confident form going into the Second Round match with Alejandro Falla. Hernych might not have had a great grass season prior to Newport, but he has previous on this surface and a confident player is going to be tough to stop.
He has won plenty of matches on the surface through his career thanks to a decent serve, while Hernych was a Second Round exit at Wimbledon last year after coming through three qualifiers. Of course Alejandro Falla has had enough experience on grass too to be a dangerous player and also came through with a comfortable First Round win.
Falla has won a lot of matches on the grass over the last month as he fought through some qualifiers and it was only last season that he competed in the Final in Halle against Roger Federer. The Colombian is not as consistent these days and has had some poor losses too, but this is the kind of field where he will expect to make hay as long as he can get through a difficult Second Round match.
Both players are liable to some sloppy play in the latter stages of their careers and that might be a key in deciding who is going to go through. However, I think Hernych's four straight wins might have helped his belief and I expect he can take a set at least if not go on and win this match.
Jack Sock - 3.5 games v Lukas Lacko: Any doubts about the broken finger were erased by Jack Sock in a convincing First Round win over the veteran Radek Stepanek and I expect him to back that up. It was a disappointing Wimbledon for Sock who I don't think is as comfortable on the grass as some of the other American players are, but he can make up for it with a strong run in Newport.
The Second Round match with Lukas Lacko should suit Sock down the ground as Lacko hasn't really enjoyed the grass courts himself. He did take Steve Johnson to five sets as Wimbledon which would have been a surprise to many and Lacko is someone who has never had a lot of success on this surface.
The last couple of seasons has seen Lacko lose a lot of form and slip down the Rankings too and I do think Sock will have a chance to dominate the tempo of this match. He will have to serve well because Lacko does have some talent, but I think the American will just have a little too much about him.
Neither player served that well in a match in Atlanta last year on the hard courts, but you have to expect the grass to aid both. However, I think Lacko is a little looser with his second serve quite vulnerable and that should lead to a 76, 63 win for Sock.
MY PICKS: Alexandra Dulgheru - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units) Rain Delay
Yuichi Sugita + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jan Hernych + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2 Units (10 Units Staked, - 20% Yield)
Alexandra Dulgheru - 5.5 games v Shuai Zhang: This is a match that was rained off on Tuesday, but the layers have finally got the full market out for the match.
Alexandra Dulgheru is the home favourite and comes into the tournament having won a lower level tournament on the clay last week. She should be well adjusted, while the extra day of rest will certainly suit her as she bids to show off her form in front of her home support.
You would expect her to be too good for Shuai Zhang who has struggled on the clay courts at the main Tour level over the last couple of years. In those defeats, there have been plenty of times that Zhang has fallen away and now faces a player who would have covered big spreads regularly with the form displayed last week.
Dulgheru was beaten early in Bucharest this time last season, but I think she has a much better impact in the tournament this time around. Confidence should be on her side and I expect she finds a way to break down Zhang in a 64, 62 win.
Yuichi Sugita + 2.5 games v Rajeev Ram: It was a huge surprise on Tuesday to see Rajeev Ram get through John Isner in three sets and he is going to be expected to back that up in the Second Round. However, Yuichi Sugita is coming in off an impressive win over Ryan Harrison and showed enough form on the grass over the last month to think this anything but a straight forward match for the American.
Aside from a decent run in a Challenger event held in Manchester, Ram has been playing a lot more Doubles matches than Singles in recent weeks and it is hard to ignore that. In fact, the win over John Isner is the first Singles match he has played on the main Tour this season which should highlight the quality of field that has been attracted to Newport.
Backing up a big win over the Number 1 American player is going to be tough for Ram who is looking to progress beyond the Second Round in Newport for the first time since 2012. That year Ram managed to reach the Semi Final and it isn't like Sugita is a regular Singles player on the main Tour so you can understand why Ram is the favourite.
However, I think Sugita makes this a close match having qualified for the main draw at Wimbledon for the second season in a row and having some wins under his belt over the last month. Those did come in qualifiers, but that level is about where Ram is and Sugita has shown he is capable on the grass.
This match could go three sets which makes this number of games appealing as does the fact that Sugita is a live underdog and I will back him to cover.
Steve Johnson - 3.5 games v Tatsuma Ito: There has been an element of misfortune when Steve Johnson and Tatsuma Ito have met one another over the last twelve months as both matches have ended with a retirement. It was Ito who retired during their match in Newport, but Johnson who had to pull out of a match at the US Open so the first thing we have to hope is that this match will have a clear conclusion.
Johnson came through in three sets in his First Round match, but was given a huge helping hand from Michael Berrer, while Ito perhaps made harder work of Noah Rubin than would have been expected.
The match up should be a good one for Johnson as you would think he is has the more secure serve and is also comfortable at the net. The grass court season hasn't been as productive for the American as he may have liked, but Ito is a player that enjoys the majority of his success in the lower level than Johnson.
Ito did have one good run on the grass over the last month, but he was back playing a hard court tournament last week which shows his real appreciation for this surface. As long as Johnson serves with more consistency than he did in the early portion of his First Round match, I expect he wins this 64, 64.
Jan Hernych + 2.5 games v Alejandro Falla: After coming through three qualifiers and a First Round match, Jan Hernych is going to be in very confident form going into the Second Round match with Alejandro Falla. Hernych might not have had a great grass season prior to Newport, but he has previous on this surface and a confident player is going to be tough to stop.
He has won plenty of matches on the surface through his career thanks to a decent serve, while Hernych was a Second Round exit at Wimbledon last year after coming through three qualifiers. Of course Alejandro Falla has had enough experience on grass too to be a dangerous player and also came through with a comfortable First Round win.
Falla has won a lot of matches on the grass over the last month as he fought through some qualifiers and it was only last season that he competed in the Final in Halle against Roger Federer. The Colombian is not as consistent these days and has had some poor losses too, but this is the kind of field where he will expect to make hay as long as he can get through a difficult Second Round match.
Both players are liable to some sloppy play in the latter stages of their careers and that might be a key in deciding who is going to go through. However, I think Hernych's four straight wins might have helped his belief and I expect he can take a set at least if not go on and win this match.
Jack Sock - 3.5 games v Lukas Lacko: Any doubts about the broken finger were erased by Jack Sock in a convincing First Round win over the veteran Radek Stepanek and I expect him to back that up. It was a disappointing Wimbledon for Sock who I don't think is as comfortable on the grass as some of the other American players are, but he can make up for it with a strong run in Newport.
The Second Round match with Lukas Lacko should suit Sock down the ground as Lacko hasn't really enjoyed the grass courts himself. He did take Steve Johnson to five sets as Wimbledon which would have been a surprise to many and Lacko is someone who has never had a lot of success on this surface.
The last couple of seasons has seen Lacko lose a lot of form and slip down the Rankings too and I do think Sock will have a chance to dominate the tempo of this match. He will have to serve well because Lacko does have some talent, but I think the American will just have a little too much about him.
Neither player served that well in a match in Atlanta last year on the hard courts, but you have to expect the grass to aid both. However, I think Lacko is a little looser with his second serve quite vulnerable and that should lead to a 76, 63 win for Sock.
MY PICKS: Alexandra Dulgheru - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units) Rain Delay
Yuichi Sugita + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jan Hernych + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-3, - 2 Units (10 Units Staked, - 20% Yield)
Tuesday, 14 July 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (July 14th)
It was a quiet Monday compared with the last two weeks, but that is usually the case as soon as a Grand Slam finishes that you begin to look ahead to the next one. It is almost two months before the US Open begins and there is going to be plenty of tennis to be played before we even begin the US hard court series.
Monday might not have had a lot of matches from the main draws scheduled, but that isn't the case on Tuesday as the three events in Bastad, Bucharest and Newport have a full day of play with most of the First Round matches all set to be completed by the end of Tuesday.
I have also updated the season statistics below including updating the results from Wimbledon which was completed on Sunday.
Radek Stepanek + 2.5 games v Jack Sock: I do think there is a lot to like about Jack Sock's game as he continues to develop as a Singles player and he could have a decent impact during the hard court season.The US men's tennis scene has failed to really produce the kind of players that they have given the Tour in the past so there will be some pressure on the likes of Sock to start moving up the Rankings, but he has produced some solid tennis to think he can do that.
Of course the ultimate test for any up and coming American player is to make sure they can challenge at the business end of Grand Slams having failed to replace Andy Roddick in that regard. Whether Sock is the man to do that is open to debate, but he looks like someone who can potentially get a lot better in the coming couple of years.
However, he is yet to really produce the goods on the grass courts and now faces a tough situation in Newport where he will play despite breaking a finger during Wimbledon. Sock has had time to recover from that injury, which was on his left hand, but I also believe Radek Stepanek is the kind of player that can frustrate.
Stepanek has tried to return to form since coming back from injury, but he has struggled and suffered an early loss at Wimbledon. However, the Czech player is very comfortable on the grass courts and I think he can expose some of the issues that Sock might have between his finger and getting comfortable on the grass. It isn't a large number of games, but Stepanek is capable of stealing a set if Sock isn't at 100% and that might be enough for him to stay within the number.
John Isner - 3.5 games v Rajeev Ram: I do think it is hard to argue with the fact that John Isner is one of the poorer returners on Tour and his major weapon is his serve. Unfortunately it does mean he is involved in a lot of tie-brekaers which means there is little chance Isner can have a really big impact in a Grand Slam as he is simply physically spent at the end of four Rounds.
The serve is big enough to have helped Isner reach Masters Finals and earn some very big wins, but he needs to be better on the return of serve if he is really going to go the extra steps and become the latest American Grand Slam winner.
It might not matter so much in his First Round match in Newport against Rajeev Ram who is much more likely to be found on the Doubles circuit these days. Ram has a decent serve, but his overall play isn't the best and he struggles to really cope with the pressure that any half decent return can put on him.
One set might go to a tie-breaker, but I think Isner can get enough back in play to get to break point a couple of times in this match and I expect he will be able to take one. The scoreboard pressure on Rajeev Ram won't help his cause and I think Isner will serve well enough to hold onto a 63, 76 win.
Danka Kovinic - 3.5 games v Petra Martic: Any time a player has come through the qualifiers to reach the main draw, you have to respect them for being in form although the challenge presented in the main draw is obviously much higher than usual. Petra Martic has won three matches in Bucharest already but her success in the lower level of the Tour has failed to transfer onto the main Tour.
The clay courts should also favour Danka Kovinic who has beaten Martic twice on this surface over the last two seasons and Kovinic did reach the Semi Final of a clay court tournament last week.
Clay is easily the favourite surface for Kovinic and she has performed very well in the lower levels of the Tour, but that might be the kind of level she needs to beat Martic. Kovinic has had some good results on the main Tour too on this surface and the fact she is not moving straight from the grass into this tournament is also a positive.
The wins earned last week will give her a chance to have gotten used to being back on the clay and I do think Kovinic is the better player on this surface. Martic's wins in the qualifiers are to be respected, but I think Kovinic is another step up from the quality she beat in those qualifying matches and I expect the player from Montenegro to move through with a 64, 64 win.
Julia Goerges - 1.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: Another qualifier in Bucharest is 18 year old Daria Kasatkina, a former Junior winner at Roland Garros and that makes her a dangerous customer for the erratic Julia Goerges. Kasatkina has barely been threatened in her three wins this week to get into the main draw in Bucharest and she showed her quality in a 64, 61 defeat to Garbine Muguruza on this surface earlier this season.
However, it also has to be said that Julia Goerges is a decent enough player on the clay having reached the Fourth Round in Paris and this remains her best surface. Her inconsistencies are still there, but the slower court gives her a chance to hit her penetrating groundstrokes and that might give Kasatkina something to think about.
I know Daria Kasatkina is going to very comfortable in the conditions, but I do wonder if she is going to be able to cope with the power that Goerges certainly brings to the court. The German can't always be trusted simply because her inconsistent play and high risk tennis is never far away from leaving her down a set and a break when she is slightly off form.
I am just not sure if Kasatkina is ready to take advantage of that and whether Goerges' power eventually wears her down and helps Goerges move through 63, 36, 63.
MY PICKS: Radek Stepanek + 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
John Isner - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Danka Kovinic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, + 0 Units (4 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Wimbledon Daily Picks Final: 26-25, - 1.83 Units (101 Units Staked, - 1.81% Yield)
Wimbledon Outright Final: 3-5, + 8.80 Units (19 Units Staked, + 46.32% Yield)
Season 2015: + 37.35 Units (1098 Units Staked, + 3.40% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Monday might not have had a lot of matches from the main draws scheduled, but that isn't the case on Tuesday as the three events in Bastad, Bucharest and Newport have a full day of play with most of the First Round matches all set to be completed by the end of Tuesday.
I have also updated the season statistics below including updating the results from Wimbledon which was completed on Sunday.
Radek Stepanek + 2.5 games v Jack Sock: I do think there is a lot to like about Jack Sock's game as he continues to develop as a Singles player and he could have a decent impact during the hard court season.The US men's tennis scene has failed to really produce the kind of players that they have given the Tour in the past so there will be some pressure on the likes of Sock to start moving up the Rankings, but he has produced some solid tennis to think he can do that.
Of course the ultimate test for any up and coming American player is to make sure they can challenge at the business end of Grand Slams having failed to replace Andy Roddick in that regard. Whether Sock is the man to do that is open to debate, but he looks like someone who can potentially get a lot better in the coming couple of years.
However, he is yet to really produce the goods on the grass courts and now faces a tough situation in Newport where he will play despite breaking a finger during Wimbledon. Sock has had time to recover from that injury, which was on his left hand, but I also believe Radek Stepanek is the kind of player that can frustrate.
Stepanek has tried to return to form since coming back from injury, but he has struggled and suffered an early loss at Wimbledon. However, the Czech player is very comfortable on the grass courts and I think he can expose some of the issues that Sock might have between his finger and getting comfortable on the grass. It isn't a large number of games, but Stepanek is capable of stealing a set if Sock isn't at 100% and that might be enough for him to stay within the number.
John Isner - 3.5 games v Rajeev Ram: I do think it is hard to argue with the fact that John Isner is one of the poorer returners on Tour and his major weapon is his serve. Unfortunately it does mean he is involved in a lot of tie-brekaers which means there is little chance Isner can have a really big impact in a Grand Slam as he is simply physically spent at the end of four Rounds.
The serve is big enough to have helped Isner reach Masters Finals and earn some very big wins, but he needs to be better on the return of serve if he is really going to go the extra steps and become the latest American Grand Slam winner.
It might not matter so much in his First Round match in Newport against Rajeev Ram who is much more likely to be found on the Doubles circuit these days. Ram has a decent serve, but his overall play isn't the best and he struggles to really cope with the pressure that any half decent return can put on him.
One set might go to a tie-breaker, but I think Isner can get enough back in play to get to break point a couple of times in this match and I expect he will be able to take one. The scoreboard pressure on Rajeev Ram won't help his cause and I think Isner will serve well enough to hold onto a 63, 76 win.
Danka Kovinic - 3.5 games v Petra Martic: Any time a player has come through the qualifiers to reach the main draw, you have to respect them for being in form although the challenge presented in the main draw is obviously much higher than usual. Petra Martic has won three matches in Bucharest already but her success in the lower level of the Tour has failed to transfer onto the main Tour.
The clay courts should also favour Danka Kovinic who has beaten Martic twice on this surface over the last two seasons and Kovinic did reach the Semi Final of a clay court tournament last week.
Clay is easily the favourite surface for Kovinic and she has performed very well in the lower levels of the Tour, but that might be the kind of level she needs to beat Martic. Kovinic has had some good results on the main Tour too on this surface and the fact she is not moving straight from the grass into this tournament is also a positive.
The wins earned last week will give her a chance to have gotten used to being back on the clay and I do think Kovinic is the better player on this surface. Martic's wins in the qualifiers are to be respected, but I think Kovinic is another step up from the quality she beat in those qualifying matches and I expect the player from Montenegro to move through with a 64, 64 win.
Julia Goerges - 1.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: Another qualifier in Bucharest is 18 year old Daria Kasatkina, a former Junior winner at Roland Garros and that makes her a dangerous customer for the erratic Julia Goerges. Kasatkina has barely been threatened in her three wins this week to get into the main draw in Bucharest and she showed her quality in a 64, 61 defeat to Garbine Muguruza on this surface earlier this season.
However, it also has to be said that Julia Goerges is a decent enough player on the clay having reached the Fourth Round in Paris and this remains her best surface. Her inconsistencies are still there, but the slower court gives her a chance to hit her penetrating groundstrokes and that might give Kasatkina something to think about.
I know Daria Kasatkina is going to very comfortable in the conditions, but I do wonder if she is going to be able to cope with the power that Goerges certainly brings to the court. The German can't always be trusted simply because her inconsistent play and high risk tennis is never far away from leaving her down a set and a break when she is slightly off form.
I am just not sure if Kasatkina is ready to take advantage of that and whether Goerges' power eventually wears her down and helps Goerges move through 63, 36, 63.
MY PICKS: Radek Stepanek + 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
John Isner - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Danka Kovinic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, + 0 Units (4 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Wimbledon Daily Picks Final: 26-25, - 1.83 Units (101 Units Staked, - 1.81% Yield)
Wimbledon Outright Final: 3-5, + 8.80 Units (19 Units Staked, + 46.32% Yield)
Season 2015: + 37.35 Units (1098 Units Staked, + 3.40% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)