The grass court tournaments before the beginning of Wimbledon continue on Wednesday and there is another full day of tennis as the events make sure they are going to be completed by Saturday. It might not be the case later this week when more rain is due to affect both Eastbourne and Nottingham and that might mean the tournaments are concluded indoors with none of the players likely to be too happy being postponed until Sunday.
At that point winning a title is an obvious goal, but all the players will want to be well rested for the travel to London and being ready to play at Wimbledon.
Qualifying also continues at Roehampton with both the men's and women's events reaching the Second Round of those qualifiers and we are now fast approaching the draw for the Grand Slam which is made on Friday morning.
It wasn't a great day for the picks with a lot of mixed results as a couple of surprise results went against me, but that can be an issue in the week before a Grand Slam. Not many of those in the ATP tournament will really expect they can win at Wimbledon, but the WTA tournament had been loaded with some high Ranking players, although that draw has been decimated by injury, illness and surprising results too.
The tournament in Eastbourne has regularly been seen as an important one on the WTA Tour, but it is clear that the new extended grass court season is still being worked out by the players to make sure they get the best preparation for Wimbledon.
Adrian Mannarino v Simone Bolelli: You may not immediately associate a player like Simone Bolelli with the grass courts, but he has had some decent success on the surface in the past. Bolelli reached the Third Round at Wimbledon last year which is the third time in his career that he has reached that far and Bolelli has a few wins under his belt on grass over the last couple of weeks.
Even with that in mind, I am a little surprised that Bolelli has been set as the favourite to beat Adrian Mannarino who is an improving player on the Tour.
The Frenchman has a Fourth Round appearance at Wimbledon under his belt and also reached the Quarter Final in Hertogenbosch earlier this season. Mannarino has a lefty serve that should cause Bolelli some issues to deal with and I do think he is the more comfortable player on this surface.
It will be a close match I am sure and it might come down to a tie-breaker in which the winner takes control of the match. However, I do think the wrong player is favoured and will look for Mannarino to put another Quarter Final on a grass court on his resume.
Sam Querrey - 3.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: Over the last few years, Pablo Cuevas has showed little interest in playing at Wimbledon- he was beaten in the First Round there last year, but hadn't played at Wimbledon since 2009 when he qualified for the Slam and reached the Second Round.
There might be some more interest in the grass from Cuevas this year as he actually entered a pre-Wimbledon tournament in Halle before heading to Nottingham. Cuevas was beaten in the First Round in Halle, but he did beat Dudi Sela here in two tight sets to give him some confidence to take into the match.
However, Cuevas is now facing a player who is very comfortable on the grass as Sam Querrey is his opponent fresh off a routine win over Santiago Giraldo. Querrey could have won much easier than the 76, 64 score suggested if he took his break point chances in any of three consecutive return games in the first set, but it was still straight-forward for the American.
Querrey is much more comfortable on the grass of these two players and his serve gives him a big edge in the match. You have to feel he will get enough chances to find a way to break the Cuevas serve in each set and that should be enough for Querrey to move through 64, 64.
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 2.5 games v Dominic Thiem: Boris Becker might not believe there are too many 'characters' coming through to replace the likes of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer on the ATP Tour, but I am not exactly sure what he is getting at.
It was in the same interview that he said none of the tennis players are allowed to show off their personalities, while he can't have meant from a talent perspective either. Dominic Thiem is one of those younger players that looks like he could go very far in the sport, although he is yet to really find his feet on the grass.
Thiem has admitted as much himself in the past and he had lost all four professional grass court matches prior to his win over Malek Jaziri this week. He dismissed him without any problems, but Alexandr Dolgopolov is a much better grass court player and can make that difference come off in the match.
However, I am concerned that Dolgopolov had to work so hard to beat Pablo Andujar in the Second Round and he has had a poor grass court season so far even taking into consideration a win over Rafael Nadal. Dolgopolov has had plenty of success on the surface in the past and looks to be the more comfortable of the two and I think he can get a measure of revenge for his loss to Thiem in Paris at the end of last year.
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Yen-Hsun Lu: You have to have respect for the way that Yen-Hsun Lu can play on the grass courts and hard courts, but Feliciano Lopez is the stronger player on this surface and I expect he will be making it through to the Quarter Final.
After a really strong 2014 grass court season which saw Lopez reach the Final in Queens and win the title in Eastbourne, 2015 has seen the Spaniard lose his first match in Stuttgart and in the Second Round at Queens Club. A win over Taylor Fritz in Nottingham was to be expected, but Lopez has to get a little more out of the return game if he is going to see off Lu.
Lu has already put together two good wins this week without dropping a set which includes a straight sets win over Andreas Seppi, the Finalist from Halle last week, in the Second Round. That will give him confidence and Lu has a decent serve and consistent groundstrokes that can be very productive on grass.
However, I think Lopez will get enough returns in play to find his way to the net and put the pressure on Lu, particularly if he is serving well. The backhand remains a weakness on other surfaces, but the slice employed by Lopez is a very effective shot on grass if he follows it to the net. The ball stays lower and players hit up to Lopez who is an effective volleyer and I think that helps him beat Lu 76, 64 in this Third Round match.
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 games v Johanna Konta: When I said I thought Johanna Konta had a lot more potential in her game than she has perhaps shown on the WTA Tour so far, I was still not expecting the British player to beat Ekaterina Makarova in the Second Round. Konta highlighted how good she could be with an impressive straight sets win and I do wonder how she will deal with it from a mental perspective having beaten her first top ten opponent.
If Konta can take the win and be able to move on and concentrate on her next match, she will give Garbine Muguruza something to think about. Konta has already pushed Karolina Pliskova, the Birmingham Finalist, to a three set match this grass court season, and wins over Zarina Dyas and Makarova are impressive this week.
However, it can be tough for the lower Ranked players to produce the same level the day after a huge win like the one Konta had and that is where Muguruza could do some real damage. The Spaniard should have the game that transfers effectively onto the grass, but she hasn't produced consistent results on the surface at this point of her career.
I do wonder if Muguruza has a great feel for the movement on grass and whether the lower bouncing ball just disrupts her timing. She has reached a Quarter Final and Semi Final in Hertogenbosch so Muguruza can clearly play on the grass, but I do think it does bother her mentally to be on the green courts.
However, I think the win she had over Polona Hercog after dropping the first set will help Muguruza and she can perhaps take advantage of Konta if the Brit has just had too much to deal with after the biggest win of her career. It might go three sets, but Muguruza should have enough to find the cover.
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 games v Heather Watson: One of the weird head to head records on the WTA Tour had to be the 4-0 lead Heather Watson had over Sloane Stephens despite the latter achieving a lot more success on the Tour in general. I could understand it when you looked at the match up as Watson had the defence to frustrate someone like Stephens while giving her no pace to work with off the ground, but something may have changed at the French Open.
Watson won a match between the players at the start of the season in Hobart, but she was crushed by Stephens at the French Open and I think the American franks that form.
Both players had solid Second Round wins in Eastbourne and Watson is a former Semi Finalist in Eastbourne, but I do think Stephens is very comfortable on the surface too. She might not have played another grass court tournament prior to this week, but Stephens is a former Quarter Finalist at Wimbledon and I do think she has turned around her form after a poor start to 2015.
If Stephens can continue hitting the ball as she has been over the last couple of months, I think she will have too much for Watson again and I think the number of games is perhaps a couple of games too low. Some may think Watson has the stronger grass court pedigree but she was just 5-7 on this surface over the last couple of years prior to the two wins achieved in Eastbourne and I like Stephens battling through 76, 63.
MY PICKS: Adrian Mannarino @ 2.05 Stan James (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-3, + 1.06 Units (14 Units Staked, + 7.57% Yield)
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Wednesday, 24 June 2015
Tuesday, 23 June 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (June 23rd)
It was a rain affected Monday in the United Kingdom which meant the tournaments in Eastbourne and Nottingham were interrupted through the day and all of the scheduled matches could not be completed.
With Wimbledon beginning next Monday and both of these events hoping to get their tournaments completed by Saturday it does mean that Tuesday is going to see some players having to double duty in Nottingham, while there is also a very full schedule in Eastbourne where the entire Second Round is going to be played.
The rain also meant that only one of the three picks I made on Monday was able to be completed and thankfully came in as a winner. Sam Groth should have made it another winner, but was broken serving for the match despite getting to match point and has to renew his match with Mischa Zverev 7-6, 5-6 and serving to get into a second set tie-breaker.
We are expecting to see a much clearer day for the tennis on Tuesday so all of the picks I make should be completed by the end of the day.
Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: I have made it clear that I think Johanna Konta has some real potential if she can just put together some consistent weeks on the Tour to make her believe a little more about what she is capable of. The grass court season should be a chance for Konta to pick up some valuable points, but she has just come up a little short the last couple of weeks against players who have eventually reached the Final of the events they met at.
Now Konta is going to have to bring her very best form into this Second Round match as she faces Ekaterina Makarova who has shown she is very comfortable on grass over the last few years. She is a former winner in Eastbourne and reached the Quarter Final at Wimbledon last season so Makarova will be confident of what she can achieve over the next three weeks.
Of course it can be tough to play your first match on grass which is the situation for Makarova this week, especially against someone like Konta who has plenty of matches under her belt. Konta will know the conditions having won a match here already, but I think Makarova will give her a very big test.
The lefty serve should give Makarova a chance to ease her way into the tournamanet and I think she has enough to find herself coming through in a tight 64, 64 kind of match.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Marcos Baghdatis: The grass courts should give Marcos Baghdatis his best chance to beat someone like David Ferrer, but the Spaniard is not someone who is overwhelmed by the surface. In fact he has won tournaments on grass prior to Wimbledon in the past and Ferrer will give a full effort in Nottingham as he looks to put some matches together ahead of the next Grand Slam of the season.
Ferrer is the kind of player that will always give his all for every point he plays and he will have a real respect for Baghdatis who pushed Rafael Nadal all the way in a match played in Stuttgart earlier this month. The Cypriot has been very comfortable on the grass through his career, but he isn't the same player of previous years and I think the mental battle of playing someone like Ferrer could hurt Baghdatis.
You have to think Ferrer will be able to get into enough of the Baghdatis service games to cause pressure which can lead to the mistakes to open up the match for him. The Baghdatis first serve is a big shot, but he doesn't usually have a high percentage of those and that will give Ferrer a chance to get involved in rallies where he would expect to win more often than not.
If Baghdatis can shorten the points, he might have a chance to upset the odds, but I think Ferrer will be able to drag enough longer rallies out of the match to move through 64, 64.
Sam Querrey - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Sam Querrey has won the title at Queens Club before so you know this is a player who is comfortable on the grass courts. However, the form has dropped for the American and he had a poor defeat to Grigor Dimitrov last week at Queens having got into a position to win the match.
His game does transfer well onto the grass courts, but being short of confidence hurts Querrey, although I still think he will be too good for Santiago Giraldo. The latter is someone who can perform well on the grass, but he could be put under pressure by Querrey if the American is serving well and that is where Giraldo could potentially be cracked.
Last week Ivo Karlovic was able to do that against Giraldo even though he lost the first set on the tie-breaker and I do think Querrey can be an effective returner on the surface.
The run of losses for Querrey has to be a concern as I think that has dented confidence and was the reason he couldn't finish off Dimitrov last week when he had him down. That would be the biggest concern in backing Querrey in this match, but I think the American will be too good and come through 76, 64.
Victor Troicki - 2.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: The last couple of weeks have been very productive for Victor Troicki and my one concern for him this week in Nottingham is wondering how much fuel he has left in the tank. He looked to hurt his shoulder in the Semi Final loss to Andy Murray at Queens last week, but Troicki looked better on the Sunday and I like his chances to see of Sergiy Stakhovsky.
He might always have a story to tell having been one of the few players to beat Roger Federer at Wimbledon, but that really was the highlight of Stakhovsky's career. It hasn't been a good grass court season for Stakhovsky so far and the form is far below what Troicki has been producing.
The Serb also has a strong record against Stakhovsky having won his last four matches against him, although the last of those was almost three years ago. That isn't that relevant now, but Troicki has been serving very well the last couple of weeks and looks like someone who could make an impact at Wimbledon.
With all the tennis under his belt, I do wonder if there is the same focus for this tournament in Nottingham, but Troicki looks like he is really enjoying his tennis after the long ban hurt his career. I think he will appreciate every opportunity he has and he can be too good for Stakhovsky whose lost a couple of poor matches over the last couple of week.s
MY PICKS: Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victor Troicki - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sam Groth @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units) Leading 76, 56 Rain Delayed
Eugenie Bouchard @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units) Rain Delayed
Weekly Update: 1-0, + 1.70 Units (2 Units Staked, + 85% Yield)
With Wimbledon beginning next Monday and both of these events hoping to get their tournaments completed by Saturday it does mean that Tuesday is going to see some players having to double duty in Nottingham, while there is also a very full schedule in Eastbourne where the entire Second Round is going to be played.
The rain also meant that only one of the three picks I made on Monday was able to be completed and thankfully came in as a winner. Sam Groth should have made it another winner, but was broken serving for the match despite getting to match point and has to renew his match with Mischa Zverev 7-6, 5-6 and serving to get into a second set tie-breaker.
We are expecting to see a much clearer day for the tennis on Tuesday so all of the picks I make should be completed by the end of the day.
Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: I have made it clear that I think Johanna Konta has some real potential if she can just put together some consistent weeks on the Tour to make her believe a little more about what she is capable of. The grass court season should be a chance for Konta to pick up some valuable points, but she has just come up a little short the last couple of weeks against players who have eventually reached the Final of the events they met at.
Now Konta is going to have to bring her very best form into this Second Round match as she faces Ekaterina Makarova who has shown she is very comfortable on grass over the last few years. She is a former winner in Eastbourne and reached the Quarter Final at Wimbledon last season so Makarova will be confident of what she can achieve over the next three weeks.
Of course it can be tough to play your first match on grass which is the situation for Makarova this week, especially against someone like Konta who has plenty of matches under her belt. Konta will know the conditions having won a match here already, but I think Makarova will give her a very big test.
The lefty serve should give Makarova a chance to ease her way into the tournamanet and I think she has enough to find herself coming through in a tight 64, 64 kind of match.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Marcos Baghdatis: The grass courts should give Marcos Baghdatis his best chance to beat someone like David Ferrer, but the Spaniard is not someone who is overwhelmed by the surface. In fact he has won tournaments on grass prior to Wimbledon in the past and Ferrer will give a full effort in Nottingham as he looks to put some matches together ahead of the next Grand Slam of the season.
Ferrer is the kind of player that will always give his all for every point he plays and he will have a real respect for Baghdatis who pushed Rafael Nadal all the way in a match played in Stuttgart earlier this month. The Cypriot has been very comfortable on the grass through his career, but he isn't the same player of previous years and I think the mental battle of playing someone like Ferrer could hurt Baghdatis.
You have to think Ferrer will be able to get into enough of the Baghdatis service games to cause pressure which can lead to the mistakes to open up the match for him. The Baghdatis first serve is a big shot, but he doesn't usually have a high percentage of those and that will give Ferrer a chance to get involved in rallies where he would expect to win more often than not.
If Baghdatis can shorten the points, he might have a chance to upset the odds, but I think Ferrer will be able to drag enough longer rallies out of the match to move through 64, 64.
Sam Querrey - 2.5 games v Santiago Giraldo: Sam Querrey has won the title at Queens Club before so you know this is a player who is comfortable on the grass courts. However, the form has dropped for the American and he had a poor defeat to Grigor Dimitrov last week at Queens having got into a position to win the match.
His game does transfer well onto the grass courts, but being short of confidence hurts Querrey, although I still think he will be too good for Santiago Giraldo. The latter is someone who can perform well on the grass, but he could be put under pressure by Querrey if the American is serving well and that is where Giraldo could potentially be cracked.
Last week Ivo Karlovic was able to do that against Giraldo even though he lost the first set on the tie-breaker and I do think Querrey can be an effective returner on the surface.
The run of losses for Querrey has to be a concern as I think that has dented confidence and was the reason he couldn't finish off Dimitrov last week when he had him down. That would be the biggest concern in backing Querrey in this match, but I think the American will be too good and come through 76, 64.
Victor Troicki - 2.5 games v Sergiy Stakhovsky: The last couple of weeks have been very productive for Victor Troicki and my one concern for him this week in Nottingham is wondering how much fuel he has left in the tank. He looked to hurt his shoulder in the Semi Final loss to Andy Murray at Queens last week, but Troicki looked better on the Sunday and I like his chances to see of Sergiy Stakhovsky.
He might always have a story to tell having been one of the few players to beat Roger Federer at Wimbledon, but that really was the highlight of Stakhovsky's career. It hasn't been a good grass court season for Stakhovsky so far and the form is far below what Troicki has been producing.
The Serb also has a strong record against Stakhovsky having won his last four matches against him, although the last of those was almost three years ago. That isn't that relevant now, but Troicki has been serving very well the last couple of weeks and looks like someone who could make an impact at Wimbledon.
With all the tennis under his belt, I do wonder if there is the same focus for this tournament in Nottingham, but Troicki looks like he is really enjoying his tennis after the long ban hurt his career. I think he will appreciate every opportunity he has and he can be too good for Stakhovsky whose lost a couple of poor matches over the last couple of week.s
MY PICKS: Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victor Troicki - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sam Groth @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units) Leading 76, 56 Rain Delayed
Eugenie Bouchard @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units) Rain Delayed
Weekly Update: 1-0, + 1.70 Units (2 Units Staked, + 85% Yield)
Monday, 22 June 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (June 22nd)
This is the final week of preparation before the third Grand Slam of the 2015 tennis season begins at Wimbledon in seven days time. While the ATP event in Nottingham is missing the majority of those players who will be expected to challenge for the Wimbledon title, the majority of whom are taking part in exhibition events in the London area during the week, the WTA event in Eastbourne is a loaded draw.
Petra Kvitova, the current defending women's Champion at Wimbledon makes her bow on the grass courts this summer and this is a week that the women do tend to take much more seriously than any other time prior to a Grand Slam event. Over the years, the tournament in Eastbourne has enticed some of the big names on the WTA Tour who want to play a grass court event prior to Wimbledon and this year has proved no different.
Of course Eastbourne used to be a mixed event, but the ATP Tour has a new stop in Nottingham instead where it will be interesting to see what kind of grass courts they have created in terms of speed of play.
The favourites for the men's title at Wimbledon made strong cases last week as both Andy Murray and Roger Federer won the big events at Queens and Halle respectively. Of course Novak Djokovic is the defending Champion at Wimbledon and will go in as the favourite, but the draw is going to be key and I really believe Andy Murray has a great chance to win his second Wimbledon title in the next three weeks.
It was without a doubt my worst week making picks on the Tour for some time this season as I went through a really bad run during the middle of the week. Some luck was missing with the way breaks of serve went down, but I can't blame it all on that with some poor picks also playing their part to contribute to an all around negative week.
With Wimbledon fast approaching, picks this week will all depend on whether there is something worth backing as players begin to get ready for the next Grand Slam of the season. At the end of the week the draw for Wimbledon will be made and I will have some outright picks for the tournament put up over the weekend, while picks from Day One at the event will be made by Sunday once the layers have gotten all of their markets ready for Wimbledon.
Sam Groth v Mischa Zverev: Sam Groth is the favourite to win this match, but I have to say I was perhaps expecting him to be a harder favourite than the layers. As well as Mischa Zverev played recently in Stuttgart, Groth won the Manchester Challenger on grass and he also reached the Quarter Final in Stuttgart so is clearly comfortable on the surface.
It isn't much of a surprise that Groth feels good on grass- the Australian has a booming serve that is obviously a huge weapon on most surfaces but one that is particularly effective on grass. Beating someone like Feliciano Lopez on grass is an impressive result and even Groth's loss to Victor Troicki in Stuttgart doesn't look that bad considering how well Troicki has been playing.
As I said, Zverev was playing very well in Stuttgart as he came through the qualifiers to reach the Quarter Final there before losing in three sets to Marin Cilic. The last two sets were both in tie-breakers and it is clear the German player is in good form having also reached the Second Round in Munich on clay after winning three qualifying matches there too.
Neither player has had a lot of success on the grass courts in recent years in main Tour events, but Groth has showed a little more. If he serves well he will be tough for Zverev to deal with, especially if the latter throws in a dodgy service game which is always something he finds hard to avoid.
Tie-breakers are likely to play a big part in this match, but I think Groth could find his way to win those and move into the Second Round.
Tsvetana Pironkova - 2.5 games v Marina Erakovic: Tsvetana Pironkova reached the Semi Final and Quarter Final at Wimbledon in back to back years in 2010 and 2011, but recent years on grass haven't been as successful for her. The grass courts were a time of the season when Pironkova would really find her feet, and there were some positive signs in a close loss to Angelique Kerber last week in Birmingham, a tournament Kerber went on to win.
Last season was particularly disappointing for Pironkova on this surface as she lost the only two matches she played on grass, and a Second Round loss in Birmingham means she is just 1-4 in her last five matches on grass. However, the Bulgarian looks to be on course for her best season on the Tour since 2012 and I think her close loss to Kerber will be seen as a positive to take into the week in Eastbourne.
Pironkova has a former Quarter Final on her record at Eastbourne, but she will know how dangerous Marina Erakovic can be, especially as she has a couple of wins under her belt from the qualifiers. That has seen Erakovic improve to 6-2 on grass this season and she has had some strong performances on this surface in the past, although not last season when Erakovic was 0-3.
She has lost her two previous matches against Pironkova too, but confidence won't be an issue for Erakovic. That confidence comes from her run of decent results over the last couple of weeks heading into this match and I think she will pose Pironkova some problems in the first set.
As long as Pironkova can weather that storm as she works out the conditions in Eastbourne, I can see her coming through 75, 63.
Eugenie Bouchard v Alison Riske: I think you would have had to have had your head in the sand to not know that Eugenie Bouchard is struggling mightily with her confidence at the moment. Sometimes you see signs that she is perhaps getting her act together, but she can quickly lose heart in matches and crumble away which is a real surprise to watch considering her success in big tournaments last year.
Bouchard has lost her way at a time when people are beginning to criticise what is perceived to be a poor attitude from her- whether that is failing to shake hands with opponents prior to Fed Cup duty, or some of her 'quirks' regarding other players or deciding to dine out on her own, but it has seemed to have turned some fans against her.
You can't deny the talent Bouchard has, but a coaching change hasn't seemed to have worked as she looks to turn around what has been a really tough 2015 season. Facing someone like Alison Riske won't be easy considering how confident the American is on the grass courts and she is someone that won't really see too many fluctuations in her play.
With Bouchard being up and down more than a yo-yo in recent weeks, Alison Riske will certainly believe she can snap her run of three consecutive losses to the Canadian. Both players lost to Kristina Mladenovic in their first match in Birmingham last week, but Riske was a Semi Finalist in Nottingham and has a very good looking win over Alize Cornet here in Eastbourne already.
Confidence won't be an issue for Riske, but I am still surprised she is favoured to win this match- forget the Rankings, Bouchard has looked like she was just about to turn her form the last couple of weeks and I don't think she is that far away. She will have some positive memories of beating Riske comfortably last season on the hard courts and that might be the small mental strength to help her overcome here.
It is a risk going against Riske in the form Bouchard has displayed... But I don't think she should be a 2.20 shot in this Second Round match and I will look for her to break her losing streak with a battling three set win.
MY PICKS: Sam Groth @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Picks Final: 12-17, - 11.26 Units (57 Units Staked, - 19.75% Yield)
Season 2015: + 40.02 Units (957 Units Staked, + 4.18% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Petra Kvitova, the current defending women's Champion at Wimbledon makes her bow on the grass courts this summer and this is a week that the women do tend to take much more seriously than any other time prior to a Grand Slam event. Over the years, the tournament in Eastbourne has enticed some of the big names on the WTA Tour who want to play a grass court event prior to Wimbledon and this year has proved no different.
Of course Eastbourne used to be a mixed event, but the ATP Tour has a new stop in Nottingham instead where it will be interesting to see what kind of grass courts they have created in terms of speed of play.
The favourites for the men's title at Wimbledon made strong cases last week as both Andy Murray and Roger Federer won the big events at Queens and Halle respectively. Of course Novak Djokovic is the defending Champion at Wimbledon and will go in as the favourite, but the draw is going to be key and I really believe Andy Murray has a great chance to win his second Wimbledon title in the next three weeks.
It was without a doubt my worst week making picks on the Tour for some time this season as I went through a really bad run during the middle of the week. Some luck was missing with the way breaks of serve went down, but I can't blame it all on that with some poor picks also playing their part to contribute to an all around negative week.
With Wimbledon fast approaching, picks this week will all depend on whether there is something worth backing as players begin to get ready for the next Grand Slam of the season. At the end of the week the draw for Wimbledon will be made and I will have some outright picks for the tournament put up over the weekend, while picks from Day One at the event will be made by Sunday once the layers have gotten all of their markets ready for Wimbledon.
Sam Groth v Mischa Zverev: Sam Groth is the favourite to win this match, but I have to say I was perhaps expecting him to be a harder favourite than the layers. As well as Mischa Zverev played recently in Stuttgart, Groth won the Manchester Challenger on grass and he also reached the Quarter Final in Stuttgart so is clearly comfortable on the surface.
It isn't much of a surprise that Groth feels good on grass- the Australian has a booming serve that is obviously a huge weapon on most surfaces but one that is particularly effective on grass. Beating someone like Feliciano Lopez on grass is an impressive result and even Groth's loss to Victor Troicki in Stuttgart doesn't look that bad considering how well Troicki has been playing.
As I said, Zverev was playing very well in Stuttgart as he came through the qualifiers to reach the Quarter Final there before losing in three sets to Marin Cilic. The last two sets were both in tie-breakers and it is clear the German player is in good form having also reached the Second Round in Munich on clay after winning three qualifying matches there too.
Neither player has had a lot of success on the grass courts in recent years in main Tour events, but Groth has showed a little more. If he serves well he will be tough for Zverev to deal with, especially if the latter throws in a dodgy service game which is always something he finds hard to avoid.
Tie-breakers are likely to play a big part in this match, but I think Groth could find his way to win those and move into the Second Round.
Tsvetana Pironkova - 2.5 games v Marina Erakovic: Tsvetana Pironkova reached the Semi Final and Quarter Final at Wimbledon in back to back years in 2010 and 2011, but recent years on grass haven't been as successful for her. The grass courts were a time of the season when Pironkova would really find her feet, and there were some positive signs in a close loss to Angelique Kerber last week in Birmingham, a tournament Kerber went on to win.
Last season was particularly disappointing for Pironkova on this surface as she lost the only two matches she played on grass, and a Second Round loss in Birmingham means she is just 1-4 in her last five matches on grass. However, the Bulgarian looks to be on course for her best season on the Tour since 2012 and I think her close loss to Kerber will be seen as a positive to take into the week in Eastbourne.
Pironkova has a former Quarter Final on her record at Eastbourne, but she will know how dangerous Marina Erakovic can be, especially as she has a couple of wins under her belt from the qualifiers. That has seen Erakovic improve to 6-2 on grass this season and she has had some strong performances on this surface in the past, although not last season when Erakovic was 0-3.
She has lost her two previous matches against Pironkova too, but confidence won't be an issue for Erakovic. That confidence comes from her run of decent results over the last couple of weeks heading into this match and I think she will pose Pironkova some problems in the first set.
As long as Pironkova can weather that storm as she works out the conditions in Eastbourne, I can see her coming through 75, 63.
Eugenie Bouchard v Alison Riske: I think you would have had to have had your head in the sand to not know that Eugenie Bouchard is struggling mightily with her confidence at the moment. Sometimes you see signs that she is perhaps getting her act together, but she can quickly lose heart in matches and crumble away which is a real surprise to watch considering her success in big tournaments last year.
Bouchard has lost her way at a time when people are beginning to criticise what is perceived to be a poor attitude from her- whether that is failing to shake hands with opponents prior to Fed Cup duty, or some of her 'quirks' regarding other players or deciding to dine out on her own, but it has seemed to have turned some fans against her.
You can't deny the talent Bouchard has, but a coaching change hasn't seemed to have worked as she looks to turn around what has been a really tough 2015 season. Facing someone like Alison Riske won't be easy considering how confident the American is on the grass courts and she is someone that won't really see too many fluctuations in her play.
With Bouchard being up and down more than a yo-yo in recent weeks, Alison Riske will certainly believe she can snap her run of three consecutive losses to the Canadian. Both players lost to Kristina Mladenovic in their first match in Birmingham last week, but Riske was a Semi Finalist in Nottingham and has a very good looking win over Alize Cornet here in Eastbourne already.
Confidence won't be an issue for Riske, but I am still surprised she is favoured to win this match- forget the Rankings, Bouchard has looked like she was just about to turn her form the last couple of weeks and I don't think she is that far away. She will have some positive memories of beating Riske comfortably last season on the hard courts and that might be the small mental strength to help her overcome here.
It is a risk going against Riske in the form Bouchard has displayed... But I don't think she should be a 2.20 shot in this Second Round match and I will look for her to break her losing streak with a battling three set win.
MY PICKS: Sam Groth @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Picks Final: 12-17, - 11.26 Units (57 Units Staked, - 19.75% Yield)
Season 2015: + 40.02 Units (957 Units Staked, + 4.18% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Saturday, 20 June 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (June 20th)
The shocks kept coming on Friday at the three grass court tournaments being played in Birmingham, Halle and Queens and that has shown up in a Semi Final line up that is perhaps a little unfamiliar to casual fans.
Andy Murray and Roger Federer still lead the big names out there as the Semi Finals are played on Saturday, although the weather in London is not looking particularly good for the tournament at Queens.
Rain may delay any beginning to the Semi Finals, but the evening should clear up to make sure the tournament remains on schedule for the Sunday finish and then we are just eight days away from the beginning of Wimbledon.
Roger Federer Win First Set 7-6 v Ivo Karlovic: The weather in Halle might mean this Semi Final is played indoors and that is going to suit Ivo Karlovic just fine if Friday is anything to go by. On that day Karlovic broke the record for most aces in a three set match as he pummelled Tomas Berdych for 45 aces and came through to face Roger Federer.
It was a special win for Karlovic, but Roger Federer is a completely different kettle of fish and someone he doesn't have a winning record against like he did with Berdych. In fact Karlovic has lost 14/15 sets since shocking Federer with his sole victory against him back in 2008.
Roger Federer has been playing pretty well this week, although his return of serve is going to be tested to the fullest by Karlovic, and he has won the two previous matches on grass against the big serving Croatian. Both of those came in straight sets at Wimbledon, but the indoor conditions might make it difficult for Federer if Karlovic is serving anything close to what he produced in the Quarter Final.
It has to be stated that 8/13 of their previous matches has seen the first set go to the tie-break so the service performances of both players suggest that trend can continue. Federer is also 13-3 against Ivo Karlovic in tie-breakers and two of those losses came in the sole defeat in 2008 so you'd have to say that Federer does find a way to get a return or two in play to force the mini-breaks.
Federer will slice the ball back and he will begin to get a feel for where Karlovic wants to go with the serve and a small interest in him winning the first set 7-6 has to be warranted.
Kristina Mladenovic + 2.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: This looks to be an intriguing Semi Final between two players that could be dark horses to have a very strong Wimbledon tournament in the coming weeks. Both players have put together some impressive wins in Birmingham to reach this Semi Final and I think it has the makings of a match that could go the distance and be decided by a couple of points here and there.
Both Kristina Mladenovic and Karolina Pliskova have the serve that should offer them plenty of cheap points on the grass and both should be looking to attack the second serve to try and put pressure on their opponent.
Mladenovic and Pliskova are both comfortable on the Doubles court too so neither is going to be afraid to get forward and put away volleys when they have the other in a difficult place on the court.
There are plenty of similarities about their games, but Pliskova has definitely been the more consistent. However, the last couple of weeks has seen Mladenovic build plenty of confidence and I also feel the Frenchwoman has shown a little more on this surface than Pliskova in recent years.
Of course the Pliskova game is built for the grass courts and faster surfaces in general and she has been dominant this week which has to be respected. Mladenovic has had to dig deeper which would have taken more out of her from a mental and physical standpoint and she also had to deal with the tougher Quarter Final. However, I can see Mladenovic doing enough to keep this close and she has to be the call with the games.
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: This is the first time these two German women will have met since the 2012 Wimbledon Quarter Final which saw Angelique Kerber come through in three sets and extend her head to head to five wins over Sabine Lisicki.
Things have changed in the last three years with Sabine Lisicki improving on the grass courts in each season, but the players that have beaten her look to have something in common. Simona Halep, Marion Bartoli and Alison Riske are the last three players to beat Lisicki on the grass courts and all of those players are pretty solid defenders that can extend rallies to the breaking point of the Lisicki game while also being able to turn defence into attack.
Angelique Kerber is able to do something very similar- she is a very good mover on the grass and can get plenty of balls back in play as she looks to break down Lisicki's game. Players this week have shown you can start extracting the errors from the Lisicki game when you extend the rallies to beyond five shots and Kerber will be capable of doing that.
The lefty serve will be awkward for Lisicki to deal with and I think the match up is simply not a great one for her if Kerber is patient and looks to draw out the rallies. If she can just start getting a feel of what Lisicki is doing with her serve, which is very effective on the grass, then I like Kerber's chances of finding a 76, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer to Win 7-6 in the First Set @ 3.50 Coral (1 Unit)
Kristina Mladenovic + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-16, - 13.76 Units (52 Units Staked, - 26.46% Yield)
Andy Murray and Roger Federer still lead the big names out there as the Semi Finals are played on Saturday, although the weather in London is not looking particularly good for the tournament at Queens.
Rain may delay any beginning to the Semi Finals, but the evening should clear up to make sure the tournament remains on schedule for the Sunday finish and then we are just eight days away from the beginning of Wimbledon.
Roger Federer Win First Set 7-6 v Ivo Karlovic: The weather in Halle might mean this Semi Final is played indoors and that is going to suit Ivo Karlovic just fine if Friday is anything to go by. On that day Karlovic broke the record for most aces in a three set match as he pummelled Tomas Berdych for 45 aces and came through to face Roger Federer.
It was a special win for Karlovic, but Roger Federer is a completely different kettle of fish and someone he doesn't have a winning record against like he did with Berdych. In fact Karlovic has lost 14/15 sets since shocking Federer with his sole victory against him back in 2008.
Roger Federer has been playing pretty well this week, although his return of serve is going to be tested to the fullest by Karlovic, and he has won the two previous matches on grass against the big serving Croatian. Both of those came in straight sets at Wimbledon, but the indoor conditions might make it difficult for Federer if Karlovic is serving anything close to what he produced in the Quarter Final.
It has to be stated that 8/13 of their previous matches has seen the first set go to the tie-break so the service performances of both players suggest that trend can continue. Federer is also 13-3 against Ivo Karlovic in tie-breakers and two of those losses came in the sole defeat in 2008 so you'd have to say that Federer does find a way to get a return or two in play to force the mini-breaks.
Federer will slice the ball back and he will begin to get a feel for where Karlovic wants to go with the serve and a small interest in him winning the first set 7-6 has to be warranted.
Kristina Mladenovic + 2.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: This looks to be an intriguing Semi Final between two players that could be dark horses to have a very strong Wimbledon tournament in the coming weeks. Both players have put together some impressive wins in Birmingham to reach this Semi Final and I think it has the makings of a match that could go the distance and be decided by a couple of points here and there.
Both Kristina Mladenovic and Karolina Pliskova have the serve that should offer them plenty of cheap points on the grass and both should be looking to attack the second serve to try and put pressure on their opponent.
Mladenovic and Pliskova are both comfortable on the Doubles court too so neither is going to be afraid to get forward and put away volleys when they have the other in a difficult place on the court.
There are plenty of similarities about their games, but Pliskova has definitely been the more consistent. However, the last couple of weeks has seen Mladenovic build plenty of confidence and I also feel the Frenchwoman has shown a little more on this surface than Pliskova in recent years.
Of course the Pliskova game is built for the grass courts and faster surfaces in general and she has been dominant this week which has to be respected. Mladenovic has had to dig deeper which would have taken more out of her from a mental and physical standpoint and she also had to deal with the tougher Quarter Final. However, I can see Mladenovic doing enough to keep this close and she has to be the call with the games.
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Sabine Lisicki: This is the first time these two German women will have met since the 2012 Wimbledon Quarter Final which saw Angelique Kerber come through in three sets and extend her head to head to five wins over Sabine Lisicki.
Things have changed in the last three years with Sabine Lisicki improving on the grass courts in each season, but the players that have beaten her look to have something in common. Simona Halep, Marion Bartoli and Alison Riske are the last three players to beat Lisicki on the grass courts and all of those players are pretty solid defenders that can extend rallies to the breaking point of the Lisicki game while also being able to turn defence into attack.
Angelique Kerber is able to do something very similar- she is a very good mover on the grass and can get plenty of balls back in play as she looks to break down Lisicki's game. Players this week have shown you can start extracting the errors from the Lisicki game when you extend the rallies to beyond five shots and Kerber will be capable of doing that.
The lefty serve will be awkward for Lisicki to deal with and I think the match up is simply not a great one for her if Kerber is patient and looks to draw out the rallies. If she can just start getting a feel of what Lisicki is doing with her serve, which is very effective on the grass, then I like Kerber's chances of finding a 76, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer to Win 7-6 in the First Set @ 3.50 Coral (1 Unit)
Kristina Mladenovic + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 10-16, - 13.76 Units (52 Units Staked, - 26.46% Yield)
Friday, 19 June 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (June 19th)
It was one of those days that I haven't had for a while, but every pick went down the toilet on Thursday, some in more unfortunate ways than others to put it frankly.
There were some bad picks, but bad luck on top of that just ruined what had looked to be a really poor week anyway.
We have reached the Quarter Final stage at the various tournaments being played on grass this week, but I am not sure the organisers of the event in Queens aren't quietly disappointed that their draw has been decimated. Instead of Andy Murray v Grigor Dimitrov and Stan Wawrinka v Rafael Nadal we get to see Murray take on Gilles Muller and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez take on Kevin Anderson.
That is obviously no disrespect to the players taking the places of those Seeded to get to this stage, but when Queens are charging the prices that they are, they have to feel they need to offer the best possible product on the court. I'm not sure the draw this week has provided that for much of the week, but Queens remains a top grass court tournament and I think players will prepare for its new slot in the calendar better next year than they perhaps did this season.
There are still some big names out there with the likes of Murray, Milos Raonic, Roger Federer, Kei Nishikori, Tomas Berdych, Simona Halep, Carla Suarez Navarro and Angelique Kerber all top ten players in the World Rankings who are still in action as the Quarter Finals are all played on Friday.
It looks like the weather won't be a factor on Friday, although London and Birmingham are supposed to be very cloudy compared to the recent days at those events. It is supposed to rain in the afternoon in Halle, but they have a roof at that tournament which means the tennis won't be disrupted and can remain on schedule.
Milos Raonic - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: I was a little unsure as to how Milos Raonic would react to his lay off from the Tour, but he has looked comfortable for the most part in London this week. The first match against James Ward saw him struggling for a set and a half, but Raonic looked very good against Richard Gasquet who is a very good grass court player.
Now he takes on another Frenchman as Gilles Simon stands in the way of a Semi Final appearance in his second grass court tournament in a row following his Wimbledon exploits last year. As I said earlier in the week, I am not convinced Raonic is that comfortable on grass, but the wins over Ward and Gasquet are strong wins to give him confidence.
With the serve working effectively, Raonic can keep Simon under scoreboard pressure and he will always get some kind of chance to break serve with the way Simon plays. The movement is an issue as Simon looks to get as many balls back in play as possible which can lead to mistakes from Raonic, but the power of the Canadian will pose plenty of problems for Simon if he is being allowed to tee off on his shots.
Thanasi Kokkinakis made a lot of mistakes in his defeat to Simon earlier this week, but Raonic looks more capable of turning those chances into break points and breaking through with a 64, 75 kind of win.
Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: It was a surprising win for Gilles Muller over Grigor Dimitrov, one that I wasn't expecting him to produce and I do think it may say more about where Dimitrov is with his game at this moment in time than Muller. Take nothing away from the quality of serving that Muller produced in the win over Dimitrov, but Andy Murray's anticipation on the return is far better than the Bulgarian and I expect the British Number 1 to put more pressure on Muller than Dimitrov did.
Murray will change his position slightly, is happy to bounce on a serve once he gets a read on it and has the fortune of playing a lefty on Thursday which should prepare him for what he will see. Beating Fernando Verdasco might not have the same impact as a few years ago, but Murray had to come through some tough moments which will prepare him effectively for the bigger prizes coming up.
He will have to serve well to stop Muller getting any encouragement to cause another shock, while Murray's second serve looks a shot that Muller will look to aggressively attack. I think Murray will be smart enough to perhaps take something off the first serve and hurt Muller that way rather than allowing him to see too many second serves, but that has been the biggest issue for the Number 1 Seed this week.
Of course Muller could serve exceptionally well and prevent Murray from getting any joy in this match, but I think Murray has the return game to force some chances in this Quarter Final. I think he will be smarter than Dimitrov on the return when it comes to the big points by using his slice and variation to give Muller something else to think about and will break him down at least once in each set. That should be enough for Murray to record yet another 64, 75 win this week.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: It is something of a surprise that Tomas Berdych still has a losing record against Ivo Karlovic heading into their eighth meeting, but I can imagine the big serve Karlovic possesses ends up frustrating Berdych.
The grass courts should be the kind of surface that Karlovic loves to perform on and he has had a couple of solid wins under his belt this week. If he serves as well as he can, Berdych seems to feel the pressure of trying to stay ahead of Karlovic on the scoreboard which leads to mistakes that he simply should not be making against a limited returner.
It isn't like Karlovic is a huge player off the ground in the extended rallies, but he is capable of slicing the ball very deep into the court and attacking the net. His frame means it is hard to pass Karlovic once he gets up there, but Berdych has also played well this week and looks set to equal up their head to head.
Berdych has to accept that there will be games when he is unable to get into the Karlovic service, but he has shown he has the range to get enough balls back to force rallies which he should mean more often than not. If he can come through what is likely to be a first set tie-breaker, Berdych can win this 76, 64 and move into the Semi Final.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Florian Mayer: I am not sure what was wrong with Roger Federer in his Second Round win over Ernests Gulbis, but I have rarely seen him so vocal and frustrated in a match he was comfortably WINNING!
He was making some poor mistakes which Federer will know he needs to clean up if he is going to win the tournament in Halle as well as going deep into the draw at Wimbledon, but it was a fairly strong performance all in all. He will be tested by Florian Mayer in this Quarter Final, although the German has not played a lot of tennis of late and who hasn't been serving as well as he would like heading into a match of this size.
They have played some close matches in the past, the last two in particularly being very competitive including here in Halle in 2012, but Mayer's recent return from injury might play against him.
Mayer does have a lot of variation which makes him a threat on grass, while he is also very comfortable at the net and this could be an old fashioned match as Federer will also like to put things away at the net. I would be concerned with the amount of chances Steve Johnson fashioned on the Mayer serve in the last match if I was in the team of the latter and he was also given a bagel by Jan-Lennard Struff in the First Round.
I have mentioned that Federer has been a little loose on the break point chances that have come his way and he played the big points a little poorly against Gulbis. He'll have to tighten up on that, but Mayer's lack of match fitness might be an issue too far for him against an opponent of this quality and Federer can come through 63, 64.
Sabine Lisicki - 4.5 games v Daniela Hantuchova: Daniela Hantuchova has always been very comfortable on the grass courts and she has produced some of her best performances on this surface in her career. However, it does feel like the career his winding down these days for the Slovakian and she is taking on an opponent in Sabine Lisicki who is very comfortable on the grass too.
The grass just seems to match up very well for what Lisicki tries to do on the court and I am going to back her despite her failure to cover the spread on Thursday. One poor service game and an inability to convert a 0-40 situation on the Magdalena Rybarikova serve in the second set meant Lisicki had to settle for a 76, 64 scoreline, rather than the 64, 63 or 76, 62 score it looked like she should have earned.
It has been a very good week for Hantuchova who had come into the tournament having lost 8/9 matches, but this is clearly the biggest test she would have faced in Birmingham. Her serving was just good enough to beat Michelle Larcher De Brito in the Third Round, but Hantuchova did give her opponent a chance to get into those service games and Lisicki is capable of punishing her.
As long as Lisicki doesn't miss the chances that do come her way as she did in her own Third Round match, I think she wins this 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Sabine Lisicki - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-13, - 10.96 Units (42 Units Staked, - 26.10% Yield)
There were some bad picks, but bad luck on top of that just ruined what had looked to be a really poor week anyway.
We have reached the Quarter Final stage at the various tournaments being played on grass this week, but I am not sure the organisers of the event in Queens aren't quietly disappointed that their draw has been decimated. Instead of Andy Murray v Grigor Dimitrov and Stan Wawrinka v Rafael Nadal we get to see Murray take on Gilles Muller and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez take on Kevin Anderson.
That is obviously no disrespect to the players taking the places of those Seeded to get to this stage, but when Queens are charging the prices that they are, they have to feel they need to offer the best possible product on the court. I'm not sure the draw this week has provided that for much of the week, but Queens remains a top grass court tournament and I think players will prepare for its new slot in the calendar better next year than they perhaps did this season.
There are still some big names out there with the likes of Murray, Milos Raonic, Roger Federer, Kei Nishikori, Tomas Berdych, Simona Halep, Carla Suarez Navarro and Angelique Kerber all top ten players in the World Rankings who are still in action as the Quarter Finals are all played on Friday.
It looks like the weather won't be a factor on Friday, although London and Birmingham are supposed to be very cloudy compared to the recent days at those events. It is supposed to rain in the afternoon in Halle, but they have a roof at that tournament which means the tennis won't be disrupted and can remain on schedule.
Milos Raonic - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: I was a little unsure as to how Milos Raonic would react to his lay off from the Tour, but he has looked comfortable for the most part in London this week. The first match against James Ward saw him struggling for a set and a half, but Raonic looked very good against Richard Gasquet who is a very good grass court player.
Now he takes on another Frenchman as Gilles Simon stands in the way of a Semi Final appearance in his second grass court tournament in a row following his Wimbledon exploits last year. As I said earlier in the week, I am not convinced Raonic is that comfortable on grass, but the wins over Ward and Gasquet are strong wins to give him confidence.
With the serve working effectively, Raonic can keep Simon under scoreboard pressure and he will always get some kind of chance to break serve with the way Simon plays. The movement is an issue as Simon looks to get as many balls back in play as possible which can lead to mistakes from Raonic, but the power of the Canadian will pose plenty of problems for Simon if he is being allowed to tee off on his shots.
Thanasi Kokkinakis made a lot of mistakes in his defeat to Simon earlier this week, but Raonic looks more capable of turning those chances into break points and breaking through with a 64, 75 kind of win.
Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: It was a surprising win for Gilles Muller over Grigor Dimitrov, one that I wasn't expecting him to produce and I do think it may say more about where Dimitrov is with his game at this moment in time than Muller. Take nothing away from the quality of serving that Muller produced in the win over Dimitrov, but Andy Murray's anticipation on the return is far better than the Bulgarian and I expect the British Number 1 to put more pressure on Muller than Dimitrov did.
Murray will change his position slightly, is happy to bounce on a serve once he gets a read on it and has the fortune of playing a lefty on Thursday which should prepare him for what he will see. Beating Fernando Verdasco might not have the same impact as a few years ago, but Murray had to come through some tough moments which will prepare him effectively for the bigger prizes coming up.
He will have to serve well to stop Muller getting any encouragement to cause another shock, while Murray's second serve looks a shot that Muller will look to aggressively attack. I think Murray will be smart enough to perhaps take something off the first serve and hurt Muller that way rather than allowing him to see too many second serves, but that has been the biggest issue for the Number 1 Seed this week.
Of course Muller could serve exceptionally well and prevent Murray from getting any joy in this match, but I think Murray has the return game to force some chances in this Quarter Final. I think he will be smarter than Dimitrov on the return when it comes to the big points by using his slice and variation to give Muller something else to think about and will break him down at least once in each set. That should be enough for Murray to record yet another 64, 75 win this week.
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: It is something of a surprise that Tomas Berdych still has a losing record against Ivo Karlovic heading into their eighth meeting, but I can imagine the big serve Karlovic possesses ends up frustrating Berdych.
The grass courts should be the kind of surface that Karlovic loves to perform on and he has had a couple of solid wins under his belt this week. If he serves as well as he can, Berdych seems to feel the pressure of trying to stay ahead of Karlovic on the scoreboard which leads to mistakes that he simply should not be making against a limited returner.
It isn't like Karlovic is a huge player off the ground in the extended rallies, but he is capable of slicing the ball very deep into the court and attacking the net. His frame means it is hard to pass Karlovic once he gets up there, but Berdych has also played well this week and looks set to equal up their head to head.
Berdych has to accept that there will be games when he is unable to get into the Karlovic service, but he has shown he has the range to get enough balls back to force rallies which he should mean more often than not. If he can come through what is likely to be a first set tie-breaker, Berdych can win this 76, 64 and move into the Semi Final.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Florian Mayer: I am not sure what was wrong with Roger Federer in his Second Round win over Ernests Gulbis, but I have rarely seen him so vocal and frustrated in a match he was comfortably WINNING!
He was making some poor mistakes which Federer will know he needs to clean up if he is going to win the tournament in Halle as well as going deep into the draw at Wimbledon, but it was a fairly strong performance all in all. He will be tested by Florian Mayer in this Quarter Final, although the German has not played a lot of tennis of late and who hasn't been serving as well as he would like heading into a match of this size.
They have played some close matches in the past, the last two in particularly being very competitive including here in Halle in 2012, but Mayer's recent return from injury might play against him.
Mayer does have a lot of variation which makes him a threat on grass, while he is also very comfortable at the net and this could be an old fashioned match as Federer will also like to put things away at the net. I would be concerned with the amount of chances Steve Johnson fashioned on the Mayer serve in the last match if I was in the team of the latter and he was also given a bagel by Jan-Lennard Struff in the First Round.
I have mentioned that Federer has been a little loose on the break point chances that have come his way and he played the big points a little poorly against Gulbis. He'll have to tighten up on that, but Mayer's lack of match fitness might be an issue too far for him against an opponent of this quality and Federer can come through 63, 64.
Sabine Lisicki - 4.5 games v Daniela Hantuchova: Daniela Hantuchova has always been very comfortable on the grass courts and she has produced some of her best performances on this surface in her career. However, it does feel like the career his winding down these days for the Slovakian and she is taking on an opponent in Sabine Lisicki who is very comfortable on the grass too.
The grass just seems to match up very well for what Lisicki tries to do on the court and I am going to back her despite her failure to cover the spread on Thursday. One poor service game and an inability to convert a 0-40 situation on the Magdalena Rybarikova serve in the second set meant Lisicki had to settle for a 76, 64 scoreline, rather than the 64, 63 or 76, 62 score it looked like she should have earned.
It has been a very good week for Hantuchova who had come into the tournament having lost 8/9 matches, but this is clearly the biggest test she would have faced in Birmingham. Her serving was just good enough to beat Michelle Larcher De Brito in the Third Round, but Hantuchova did give her opponent a chance to get into those service games and Lisicki is capable of punishing her.
As long as Lisicki doesn't miss the chances that do come her way as she did in her own Third Round match, I think she wins this 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Sabine Lisicki - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-13, - 10.96 Units (42 Units Staked, - 26.10% Yield)
Thursday, 18 June 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (June 18th)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: The first of the four Second Round matches to be played on the Centre Court at Queens Club sees the defending Champion Grigor Dimitrov try and move back into the Quarter Final. Dimitrov has openly spoken of his love for this tournament having been offered Wild Cards before he had made a real impact on the Tour and his game does suit the grass courts.
He will have to be better than he was in the First Round against Sam Querrey, but there were signs in that match that Dimitrov was feeling comfortable on the surface. While his form has been up and down to this point, Dimitrov has a lot of points to protect over the next month to avoid a serious drop down the World Rankings.
The match up with Gilles Muller is far from easy with the big lefty serve likely to cause some real issues for Dimitrov. Muller has had some success on the grass in the past and he did reach the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch last week which will give him confidence he can cause an upset if Dimitrov is not bringing his best form to the court.
However, I don't think Muller protects his serve as effectively as he could, especially if he is having to throw in a lot of second serves. The Dimitrov slice return could be very important against a player that likes to serve and volley and that was how Roger Federer broke down Muller at Wimbledon last year so expect the Bulgarian to try and use the slice on the return of the first serve.
You'd have to favour Dimitrov in the extended rallies, although he will likely need a tie-breaker to also win a set as he moves through 76, 64.
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 games v John Isner: These two players met at Wimbledon last year and it was no surprise that it needed four very tight sets for Feliciano Lopez to eventually get the better of John Isner. The first three sets all went to tie-breakers and the fourth set saw a late break of serve for Lopez to move through and you would think the grass courts would favour him as a better mover on the surface.
Of course the John Isner serve is a huge weapon on any surface and will be very difficult to break if the American continues to bang down a high percentage of first serves.
So even a bare minimum of games being given to John Isner could be huge in a tight match right? Usually I would say yes, but I think Lopez has a couple of weapons that can help him break down the Isner game and help him through in straight sets.
First off Lopez has a huge serve of his own which is very effective on the grass, while he will look to be aggressive and get to the net when he can and force Isner to make the passes.
The other reason is I think Isner's recent aggressive performances of trying to get into the net might not work so well against Lopez. Most attack what is the weaker wing of Lopez and a backhand he rarely hits through, but the Spaniard generates wicked slice which could see Isner having to play the ball much lower than he would like. Isner obviously can take the racquet out of any opponent's hands though if he serves up his 'A' game, but Lopez has the tools to disarm those big weapons and I think he will cover this small number with a break in at least one set and then moving through to the Quarter Final.
Alejandro Falla + 2.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: He might have dropped out of the World's Top 100, but Alejandro Falla is a very competent grass court player and has already won three matches in Halle this week. He is a former Finalist at this event and I think he can give Jerzy Janowicz plenty to think about in this Second Round match.
It has only been two years since Janowicz reached the Wimbledon Semi Final, but his career has failed to really take off from that moment. While he has a big, aggressive game, Janowicz doesn't always make the right choice on the tennis court and that continues to be a big problem for him.
The Pole has a huge serve, but he certainly doesn't protect it well enough with double faults thrown in for fun as well as his sudden decisions to play dropshots which can be picked up by his opponent.
Falla has a decent serve himself and will put pressure on Janowicz with the lefty serve that has given Roger Federer real problems on this surface. The Colombian has enough about his game to win at least a set in this one which will give him a chance to cover even in a losing effort, while Falla will have additional confidence having beaten Janowicz twice before.
Jelena Jankovic + 2.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Jelena Jankovic's best days might be behind her, but she is still a player capable of producing some special tennis when at her best. The consistency that took her to World Number 1 has gone on a week by week basis, but Jankovic is in the midst of some good performances having reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch last week and winning two matches here already this week.
Since reaching the Final here in Birmingham in 2012, Jankovic hasn't really done anything of note as a Singles player on the grass courts so the last two weeks will have been welcomed. Jankovic will certainly need to be at her best if she is going to give Angelique Kerber something to think about.
Kerber has the lefty serve and decent groundstrokes and movement that should make her a threat in any tournament she enters, but it has been an inconsistent 2015 for her. The last couple of months have been better and she has won an impressive first match on grass against Tsvetana Pironkova who is very capable on this surface too.
The German is very happy on the grass as shown by her reaching two Finals in Eastbourne, a Quarter Final and Semi Final at Wimbledon and a Quarter Final at the London Olympics since 2012. She does seem to be the better player on grass than Jankovic, but the form of the latter makes her a threat in this Third Round match and this could go the distance.
It does make the games appealing even if I don't fully trust Jankovic to remain mentally focused if the chips are down, but the last couple of weeks has shown she is comfortable back on the grass for the first time in three years. Her familiarity with Birmingham may help too and I feel this is going to close.
Sabine Lisicki - 4.5 games v Magdalena Rybarikova: I made a point of tweeting about the 27 aces that Sabine Lisicki hit in her win over Belinda Bencic yesterday, but I wasn't aware that was setting a new mark for aces in a women's match. The previous record had been 24 and it is all the more impressive that Lisicki managed that number in a straight sets win.
As I said before, Lisicki loves the grass courts and her serve seems to work particularly well on the surface, but she will need to be at her best to beat Magdalena Rybarikova who is also very comfortable on grass. Lisicki will want to improve on the second serve where Bencic dominated on Wednesday, but getting the first serve going will only put pressure on Rybarikova to make sure she can keep up and not feel the scoreboard on her shoulders.
Rybarikova might not have been able to turn her performances on grass into strong Wimbledon runs, but pre-Wimbledon events have been her forte. She has won the title here before as well as a Quarter Final and Semi Final run, and Rybarikova also reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch last season.
A convincing win over Garbine Muguruza for the loss of just four games shows what Rybarikova is capable of on grass, but Lisicki is arguably in the top three or four women players on this surface. If she can play the big points as well as she did in the win over Bencic, Lisicki can grind down Rybarikova through her power and move through 63, 64.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alejandro Falla + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sabine Lisicki - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-8, - 0.96 Units (32 Units Staked, - 3% Yield)
He will have to be better than he was in the First Round against Sam Querrey, but there were signs in that match that Dimitrov was feeling comfortable on the surface. While his form has been up and down to this point, Dimitrov has a lot of points to protect over the next month to avoid a serious drop down the World Rankings.
The match up with Gilles Muller is far from easy with the big lefty serve likely to cause some real issues for Dimitrov. Muller has had some success on the grass in the past and he did reach the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch last week which will give him confidence he can cause an upset if Dimitrov is not bringing his best form to the court.
However, I don't think Muller protects his serve as effectively as he could, especially if he is having to throw in a lot of second serves. The Dimitrov slice return could be very important against a player that likes to serve and volley and that was how Roger Federer broke down Muller at Wimbledon last year so expect the Bulgarian to try and use the slice on the return of the first serve.
You'd have to favour Dimitrov in the extended rallies, although he will likely need a tie-breaker to also win a set as he moves through 76, 64.
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 games v John Isner: These two players met at Wimbledon last year and it was no surprise that it needed four very tight sets for Feliciano Lopez to eventually get the better of John Isner. The first three sets all went to tie-breakers and the fourth set saw a late break of serve for Lopez to move through and you would think the grass courts would favour him as a better mover on the surface.
Of course the John Isner serve is a huge weapon on any surface and will be very difficult to break if the American continues to bang down a high percentage of first serves.
So even a bare minimum of games being given to John Isner could be huge in a tight match right? Usually I would say yes, but I think Lopez has a couple of weapons that can help him break down the Isner game and help him through in straight sets.
First off Lopez has a huge serve of his own which is very effective on the grass, while he will look to be aggressive and get to the net when he can and force Isner to make the passes.
The other reason is I think Isner's recent aggressive performances of trying to get into the net might not work so well against Lopez. Most attack what is the weaker wing of Lopez and a backhand he rarely hits through, but the Spaniard generates wicked slice which could see Isner having to play the ball much lower than he would like. Isner obviously can take the racquet out of any opponent's hands though if he serves up his 'A' game, but Lopez has the tools to disarm those big weapons and I think he will cover this small number with a break in at least one set and then moving through to the Quarter Final.
Alejandro Falla + 2.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: He might have dropped out of the World's Top 100, but Alejandro Falla is a very competent grass court player and has already won three matches in Halle this week. He is a former Finalist at this event and I think he can give Jerzy Janowicz plenty to think about in this Second Round match.
It has only been two years since Janowicz reached the Wimbledon Semi Final, but his career has failed to really take off from that moment. While he has a big, aggressive game, Janowicz doesn't always make the right choice on the tennis court and that continues to be a big problem for him.
The Pole has a huge serve, but he certainly doesn't protect it well enough with double faults thrown in for fun as well as his sudden decisions to play dropshots which can be picked up by his opponent.
Falla has a decent serve himself and will put pressure on Janowicz with the lefty serve that has given Roger Federer real problems on this surface. The Colombian has enough about his game to win at least a set in this one which will give him a chance to cover even in a losing effort, while Falla will have additional confidence having beaten Janowicz twice before.
Jelena Jankovic + 2.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Jelena Jankovic's best days might be behind her, but she is still a player capable of producing some special tennis when at her best. The consistency that took her to World Number 1 has gone on a week by week basis, but Jankovic is in the midst of some good performances having reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch last week and winning two matches here already this week.
Since reaching the Final here in Birmingham in 2012, Jankovic hasn't really done anything of note as a Singles player on the grass courts so the last two weeks will have been welcomed. Jankovic will certainly need to be at her best if she is going to give Angelique Kerber something to think about.
Kerber has the lefty serve and decent groundstrokes and movement that should make her a threat in any tournament she enters, but it has been an inconsistent 2015 for her. The last couple of months have been better and she has won an impressive first match on grass against Tsvetana Pironkova who is very capable on this surface too.
The German is very happy on the grass as shown by her reaching two Finals in Eastbourne, a Quarter Final and Semi Final at Wimbledon and a Quarter Final at the London Olympics since 2012. She does seem to be the better player on grass than Jankovic, but the form of the latter makes her a threat in this Third Round match and this could go the distance.
It does make the games appealing even if I don't fully trust Jankovic to remain mentally focused if the chips are down, but the last couple of weeks has shown she is comfortable back on the grass for the first time in three years. Her familiarity with Birmingham may help too and I feel this is going to close.
Sabine Lisicki - 4.5 games v Magdalena Rybarikova: I made a point of tweeting about the 27 aces that Sabine Lisicki hit in her win over Belinda Bencic yesterday, but I wasn't aware that was setting a new mark for aces in a women's match. The previous record had been 24 and it is all the more impressive that Lisicki managed that number in a straight sets win.
As I said before, Lisicki loves the grass courts and her serve seems to work particularly well on the surface, but she will need to be at her best to beat Magdalena Rybarikova who is also very comfortable on grass. Lisicki will want to improve on the second serve where Bencic dominated on Wednesday, but getting the first serve going will only put pressure on Rybarikova to make sure she can keep up and not feel the scoreboard on her shoulders.
Rybarikova might not have been able to turn her performances on grass into strong Wimbledon runs, but pre-Wimbledon events have been her forte. She has won the title here before as well as a Quarter Final and Semi Final run, and Rybarikova also reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch last season.
A convincing win over Garbine Muguruza for the loss of just four games shows what Rybarikova is capable of on grass, but Lisicki is arguably in the top three or four women players on this surface. If she can play the big points as well as she did in the win over Bencic, Lisicki can grind down Rybarikova through her power and move through 63, 64.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alejandro Falla + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sabine Lisicki - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-8, - 0.96 Units (32 Units Staked, - 3% Yield)
Wednesday, 17 June 2015
Tennis Picks 2015 (June 17th)
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v Kevin Anderson: I really don't know what you could have learned from Stan Wawrinka's straight sets win over Nick Kyrgios, especially as the latter admitted after the match that he simply could not get engaged in the contest. It showed on the court with some really loose player allowing Wawrinka to break serve in each set and then barely get threatened on the return.
I am sure Wawrinka would have expected a lot more from Kyrgios, but I guess injuries and really hurt the Australian. That won't be the case on Wednesday against Kevin Anderson who is a very competent professional that pretty much gives it his all every time he steps on the court.
Anderson may feel he is playing with 'house money' having somehow turned around his First Round match against Lleyton Hewitt- the South African had earned one break point all match before breaking Hewitt when the latter was serving for the set and then going on to dominate the decider.
He has a big serve which should be a huge weapon on the grass, but Anderson's movement is not the best on this surface and that is where Wawrinka should have an edge. Of course we still don't know how Wawrinka is feeling following his French Open exploits as he wasn't challenged by Kyrgios, so that is the one negative I see.
However, I think Wawrinka will be able to get the better of the majority of the rallies which means he should find chances to break the Anderson serve despite how big it is. As long as Wawrinka can serve effectively enough, I like his chances of winning this one 76, 64.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Borna Coric: Many Croatian players on the ATP Tour have taken to grass like a duck to water in recent years, but Borna Coric has not been one of those to this point. In fact Coric had lost all 4 previous matches played on grass before beating Donald Young in the First Round and now takes on Tomas Berdych who is a former Wimbledon Finalist.
This looks to be a really tough game for Coric, but the talented youngster has beaten the likes of Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray in his young career so he won't be overawed. However, Coric is still getting used to the lower bounce that comes with the grass courts and is still developing his serve to earn the kind of cheap points that many of the Croatian players I spoke about above earned in their time.
I think Coric gives Berdych something to think about in the match because he has exceptional ability in the rallies to make some terrific shots. I do also believe that he won't catch Berdych out because he will know of those big wins Coric has already earned over the last twelve months and Berdych plays at a consistent level that his young opponent has yet to reach on a regular basis.
Berdych will need to serve well to give Coric nothing to get excited about and this looks a mismatch on this surface. Strong serving from the Czech player should lead to a fairly routine 63, 64 win.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Ernests Gulbis: Over the years, Ernests Gulbis has generally raised his level when he has met the best players on the Tour even at his worst point of form. This whole 2015 season has been a real disappointment for the Latvian despite his claims that he has been practicing really well, but facing Roger Federer should inspire a performance out of him.
Matches between these two have all needed to go the distance before they have been decided and both players have managed to earn two wins apiece. None of those have come on the grass though and this is a surface that hasn't really worked for Gulbis in the past.
Yes, he does have a couple of big wins on the grass courts at Wimbledon, but Gulbis has had plenty more disappointing losses and you can't argue that this surface should give Federer a big edge. He wasn't at his best in a First Round win over Philipp Kohlschreiber, but the German is much more comfortable on grass than Gulbis and I think Federer can win this one 'easier' than he has in matches against the Latvian in the past.
One of my major concerns about Federer is that he has struggled with his return game on the grass of Halle in recent years and Gulbis does have an effective serve. You do feel that Federer will get chances with a lack of confidence in the Gulbis game, but he has to be more ruthless with those when they come his way to help him earn a 63, 64 win.
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Michelle Larcher De Brito: I have to wonder how Ana Ivanovic will pick herself up from falling in the French Open Semi Final as I am not sure she will ever have a better chance to win another Grand Slam than at that tournament. The issue will be how much Ivanovic is thinking the same thing as that might mean she suffers some kind of hangover from the defeat to Lucie Safarova, while a first match on grass is always a tough prospect.
Ivanovic will also have to deal with Michelle Larcher De Brito who has come through the qualifiers to make the main draw and then won a match in the First Round too. This is the third straight week that Larcher De Brito will be playing on the grass and she has to use that familiarity to try and rush Ivanovic.
The problem for Larcher De Brito is she has simply not faced an opponent of the level of Ivanovic in the last three weeks and she has had plenty of success on the surface through her career. That makes Larcher De Brito a dangerous opponent in this one, but Ivanovic is the defending Champion here and being back in these surroundings may get a big performance out of her despite the disappointing end to the French Open.
You can't always predict how Ivanovic is going to serve which would be a concern if she is not quite on her game. But I think she has success on the return which helps her come through a tight opening set before pulling away from Larcher De Brito in a 75, 62 win.
Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 games v Belinda Bencic: Sabine Lisicki might have wanted an easier reintroduction to the grass courts she has thrived upon in recent years than the Finalist from Hertogenbosch, but this is still a match I would expect her to win. As well as Belinda Bencic has played the last couple of weeks, she looks to be a player still trying to find her feet on this surface and that is where someone like Lisicki can take advantage.
Of course this is Lisicki's first match back on grass which is a tough change, but she has loved this surface who is a previous winner in Birmingham and Quarter Final and better in her last five appearances at Wimbledon.
Her game really does work well on the grass with the booming serve and heavy forehand hurting opponents, while Lisicki also seems comfortable with her movement on the grass. She won't have it easy against Bencic who should be someone that will improve on grass over the coming years, but Lisicki makes the adjustments to perform on grass immediately and I think that comes through for her here.
I wouldn't at all be surprised if the first set has to go to the tie-breaker, but if Lisicki can win that I can see Bencic perhaps feeling the fatigue of her recent exploits. That might just lead to a 76, 64 kind of win for Lisicki and a place in the Third Round.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-6, - 2.22 Units (22 Units Staked, - 10.09% Yield)
I am sure Wawrinka would have expected a lot more from Kyrgios, but I guess injuries and really hurt the Australian. That won't be the case on Wednesday against Kevin Anderson who is a very competent professional that pretty much gives it his all every time he steps on the court.
Anderson may feel he is playing with 'house money' having somehow turned around his First Round match against Lleyton Hewitt- the South African had earned one break point all match before breaking Hewitt when the latter was serving for the set and then going on to dominate the decider.
He has a big serve which should be a huge weapon on the grass, but Anderson's movement is not the best on this surface and that is where Wawrinka should have an edge. Of course we still don't know how Wawrinka is feeling following his French Open exploits as he wasn't challenged by Kyrgios, so that is the one negative I see.
However, I think Wawrinka will be able to get the better of the majority of the rallies which means he should find chances to break the Anderson serve despite how big it is. As long as Wawrinka can serve effectively enough, I like his chances of winning this one 76, 64.
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Borna Coric: Many Croatian players on the ATP Tour have taken to grass like a duck to water in recent years, but Borna Coric has not been one of those to this point. In fact Coric had lost all 4 previous matches played on grass before beating Donald Young in the First Round and now takes on Tomas Berdych who is a former Wimbledon Finalist.
This looks to be a really tough game for Coric, but the talented youngster has beaten the likes of Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray in his young career so he won't be overawed. However, Coric is still getting used to the lower bounce that comes with the grass courts and is still developing his serve to earn the kind of cheap points that many of the Croatian players I spoke about above earned in their time.
I think Coric gives Berdych something to think about in the match because he has exceptional ability in the rallies to make some terrific shots. I do also believe that he won't catch Berdych out because he will know of those big wins Coric has already earned over the last twelve months and Berdych plays at a consistent level that his young opponent has yet to reach on a regular basis.
Berdych will need to serve well to give Coric nothing to get excited about and this looks a mismatch on this surface. Strong serving from the Czech player should lead to a fairly routine 63, 64 win.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Ernests Gulbis: Over the years, Ernests Gulbis has generally raised his level when he has met the best players on the Tour even at his worst point of form. This whole 2015 season has been a real disappointment for the Latvian despite his claims that he has been practicing really well, but facing Roger Federer should inspire a performance out of him.
Matches between these two have all needed to go the distance before they have been decided and both players have managed to earn two wins apiece. None of those have come on the grass though and this is a surface that hasn't really worked for Gulbis in the past.
Yes, he does have a couple of big wins on the grass courts at Wimbledon, but Gulbis has had plenty more disappointing losses and you can't argue that this surface should give Federer a big edge. He wasn't at his best in a First Round win over Philipp Kohlschreiber, but the German is much more comfortable on grass than Gulbis and I think Federer can win this one 'easier' than he has in matches against the Latvian in the past.
One of my major concerns about Federer is that he has struggled with his return game on the grass of Halle in recent years and Gulbis does have an effective serve. You do feel that Federer will get chances with a lack of confidence in the Gulbis game, but he has to be more ruthless with those when they come his way to help him earn a 63, 64 win.
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Michelle Larcher De Brito: I have to wonder how Ana Ivanovic will pick herself up from falling in the French Open Semi Final as I am not sure she will ever have a better chance to win another Grand Slam than at that tournament. The issue will be how much Ivanovic is thinking the same thing as that might mean she suffers some kind of hangover from the defeat to Lucie Safarova, while a first match on grass is always a tough prospect.
Ivanovic will also have to deal with Michelle Larcher De Brito who has come through the qualifiers to make the main draw and then won a match in the First Round too. This is the third straight week that Larcher De Brito will be playing on the grass and she has to use that familiarity to try and rush Ivanovic.
The problem for Larcher De Brito is she has simply not faced an opponent of the level of Ivanovic in the last three weeks and she has had plenty of success on the surface through her career. That makes Larcher De Brito a dangerous opponent in this one, but Ivanovic is the defending Champion here and being back in these surroundings may get a big performance out of her despite the disappointing end to the French Open.
You can't always predict how Ivanovic is going to serve which would be a concern if she is not quite on her game. But I think she has success on the return which helps her come through a tight opening set before pulling away from Larcher De Brito in a 75, 62 win.
Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 games v Belinda Bencic: Sabine Lisicki might have wanted an easier reintroduction to the grass courts she has thrived upon in recent years than the Finalist from Hertogenbosch, but this is still a match I would expect her to win. As well as Belinda Bencic has played the last couple of weeks, she looks to be a player still trying to find her feet on this surface and that is where someone like Lisicki can take advantage.
Of course this is Lisicki's first match back on grass which is a tough change, but she has loved this surface who is a previous winner in Birmingham and Quarter Final and better in her last five appearances at Wimbledon.
Her game really does work well on the grass with the booming serve and heavy forehand hurting opponents, while Lisicki also seems comfortable with her movement on the grass. She won't have it easy against Bencic who should be someone that will improve on grass over the coming years, but Lisicki makes the adjustments to perform on grass immediately and I think that comes through for her here.
I wouldn't at all be surprised if the first set has to go to the tie-breaker, but if Lisicki can win that I can see Bencic perhaps feeling the fatigue of her recent exploits. That might just lead to a 76, 64 kind of win for Lisicki and a place in the Third Round.
MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-6, - 2.22 Units (22 Units Staked, - 10.09% Yield)
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