Featured post

NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)

We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland ...

Tuesday, 24 April 2012

Tennis Picks April 24th

We have a few tournaments running in Barcelona, Bucharest and Stuttgart this week, with the event at Barcelona being one of the ATP 500 Events, one that has attracted some big names like Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray.

I didn't get involved in the outright markets this week as Rafael Nadal is understandably a short priced favourite in Barcelona and I think there are some real doubts over which players are just going to be using this as a glorified training session.

I will make a few picks where I think I have found some value as there are definitely some bigger events coming up over the next month.


Frederico Gil v Marcel Granollers: I am taking the underdog in this match as I want to oppose Marcel Granollers who has started the season with a 4-7 record and is only 2-2 on a clay court.

Granollers has also never got past the Second Round at the event in Barcelona and he has been beaten in his first match on four occasions.

Frederico Gil hasn't had the best start to the season, but he plays his best stuff usually on a clay court and he also holds a 4-1 head to head record against Granollers, including a 3-0 record on a clay court.

Gil does not have the biggest game, but his consistency could cause problems for Granollers, particularly if his confidence is low and I think this will be worth chancing.


Victor Hanescu - 3 games v Rui Machado: Rui Machado did reach the Final of a Challenger event on the clay courts of Rome last week, but he had lost all 9 matches he had played in the 2012 season before that tournament.

Victor Hanescu didn't have a great 2011 season and his 2012 season has not exactly been stellar so far, but his most favourable results have come on the clay courts in that time and I think he still has too big a game for his Portuguese opponent.

I think Hanescu will have it a little easier on his own service games and that should give him the edge to come through with a little bit of room to spare and cover this spread.


MY PICKS: Frederico Gil @ 2.75 Pinnacle (1 Unit) Playing at Barcelona
Victor Hanescu - 3 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units) Playing in Barcelona

Monday, 23 April 2012

Tennis Weekly Recap (Monte Carlo)

I mentioned at one point last week that the ATP Masters Event at Monte Carlo seemed to lack the feel of one of the bigger events on the calender, feeling more like an ATP 250 tournament than anything else. I truly believe the tournament loses a lot of credibility with it being the only Masters Event which is not compulsory.


Rafael Nadal still the one to beat on a clay court: Rafael Nadal won his 8th consecutive title at Monte Carlo and I think this one will be the most important for a couple of reasons.


The first is the fact that he beat Novak Djokovic in the Final, something he had failed to do since before the 2011 season. That will have finally given the Spaniard some confidence back after losing so many important matches to Djokovic over the last 15 months and will put him in good stead for the rest of the clay court season.


The second reason is the fact that he should now have the confidence in the knee issues that had forced his early retirement at the Masters Event in Miami, an injury Nadal admitted was still concerning him ahead of this one in Monte Carlo. It is clear he is much happier with the state of his body as he gets back on a clay court as it is much less demanding on his knees, and it is no surprise that he is going back to Barcelona in the coming week.




Ivan Ljubicic's retirement: Ivan Ljubicic became another big name tennis player from the last ten years that has called time on his career just a few short weeks after Fernando Gonzalez did the same in Miami.

Ivan Ljubicic was an under-rated player in his time, although his lack of success at Grand Slam level will likely have disappointed him.



Ljubicic did reach a high of World Number 3 in his career, a real achievement on its own, and that year coincided with his best efforts in a Grand Slam tournament as he reached the Quarter Final in Australian and the Semi Final at the French Open, but failure to reach further than the Fourth Round in any other Grand Slam tournament is a surprise considering his all around game.


The Croatian was highly respected by the other players on the Tour and he seems to be well-liked so I only hope he enjoys his post-playing career.




On another note, it was a tough week to be picking the matches considering the lack of consistency in the performances as a lot of the players were playing their first clay court tournament of the season.


Weekly Update: 4-4, + 2.44 Units (13 Units Staked)


Outright Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked)


Season 2012 Update: + 29.79 Units (313 Units Staked, 9.51% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

A few thoughts from the last week in Football (April 21-22)

Title race is back on: I watched with disbelief and disappointment as Manchester United threw away a 4-2 lead against Everton with less than 8 minutes remaining at Old Trafford to drop 2 more points in the the title race and once again give Manchester City a real boost in the arm.


That means there are just 3 points between the teams with 3 games left to play, the first of which is the big Manchester Derby next Monday night.


It is very strange to see United playing in this manner once they had opened up an 8 point lead in the title race, but I think Sir Alex Ferguson will make sure he is all over his players for the next few days and make sure they are ready for the big game at City.


However, I still favour United to win the title as I do think they have the 'easier' matches on paper- I would expect United to beat Swansea at home (but then I was sure they would get the win over Everton) and then win at a Sunderland side that is struggling for goals.


On the other hand, City have a really difficult game at Newcastle United, especially with the latter fighting for a Champions League place and then face relegation threatened QPR that may still need the points- what are the chances of Mark Hughes getting his revenge on Sheikh Mansour and his cronies by preventing them winning the title on the final day of the season?


Sky couldn't have been more pleased with the outcome though, as they have a chance to over-hype the game- there is no doubt this is one of the biggest end of season clashes I can remember in a long time.


While it isn't quite the Liverpool-Arsenal game from the end of the 1989 season, it is obviously a match that can have a huge bearing on where the title is going to end up.




Wolves are gone, Bolton Wanderers are in big trouble: Wolves couldn't delay the inevitable any longer on Sunday as their relegation was confirmed from the Premier League, while the results at the weekend have made it that much more difficult for Bolton Wanderers who could only pick up a 1-1 draw against Swansea at the Reebok Stadium.


With QPR and Blackburn Rovers both winning, Bolton are now 4 points behind the teams in the safety zone, although they still have 5 games to play this season. However, it is the points that matter at this stage rather than the games in hand, and Bolton need to find a win in one of their next two games at Aston Villa or Sunderland.


It still looks really tight down the bottom though- Aston Villa are only 6 points clear of Bolton so a defeat for them tomorrow night will really up the pressure on Alex McLeish and for a young team that is suffering from a number of injuries.


There are some big matches yet to be played in the final weeks of the season, with none looking bigger than the Blackburn Rovers-Wigan Athletic game in two weeks time.




Harry Redknapp for England(!): Why are so many people quick to protect Harry Redknapp and blame Tottenham's lack of form on his links with the England job rather than poor management? As I have said all season, the team had a lack of depth not because Redknapp was not backed in the market, but because the manager continues to stock-pile midfield players without adding strength to his forward line nor his defence.


The other factor people continue to overlook is the lack of a 'plan B' for when things are not going right for the team, all factors that are highlighted in International tournaments when games come thick and fast.


He has also allowed Gareth Bale to play without fear of retribution if he fails to perform, letting the winger get away with thinking he can drift wherever he wants on the football field, usually to a lack of effect.


Bale's own constant self-comparison with Cristiano Ronaldo has been tolerated when someone should really be sitting him down and warning him how far he is from that consistent performances the former Manchester United play provides- the fact Bale is allowed to constantly talk about potential moves to Barcelona or Real Madrid (he wouldn't get near either team in my honest opinion) is another issue that could potentially divide a dressing room.


All of these questions should be left at the door of Redknapp, but far too many are blinded by achievements which, while good, are vastly over-rated.




So Roy Hodgson has as many wins at Anfield in 2012 as Kenny Dalglish: I know Liverpool are going to be playing their second Cup Final of the season next month against Chelsea in the FA Cup, but surely this has to be considered a season when the club has regressed.


Alan Hansen said recently that Liverpool had become a 'Cup team' and I think he has pigeon-holed his former club in the exactly correct way.


The Reds are 8th in the Premier League table, but there has to be a real fear that they will not even finish in the top half of the table, a far cry from the expectations of a battle to finish in the Champions League places and a lot of the blame has to fall at Kenny Dalglish's door, although you wouldn't hear a bad word said about the manager from the fans.


To think they are now 37 points behind the leaders Manchester United and only 23 ahead of the Wolves team that props up the rest of the table should put it all into perspective for how bad a season this has actually been for Liverpool.




How did Sergio Aguero not win an award in the Player of the Year categories he was nominated in?: I had Sergio Aguero as an absolute shoo-in to win the Young Player of the Year award as I thought the main award would go to Robin Van Persie, but I am more than a little surprised that he didn't get it.


Kyle Walker was given the Young Player of the Year award and, while I recognise he has had a very good season, I think it's a little disgraceful that Aguero was not given it, despite powering Manchester City's title race with his goals in the absence of Carlos Tevez.


So many times we have seen a foreign import come into the Premier League and really struggle, but 22 League goals later and I think Aguero has proven he can more than handle what the League brings.


I would have also had the Argentine in the Team of the Year (he missed out on that to Van Persie and Wayne Rooney), but I could understand that a little more considering the goals of the two players that did make the team.




My Team of the Year in the Premier League: So we got the Team of the Year in the Premier League earlier this week and I have to say I don't think there was much wrong with the team at all.


I think the only changes I would have made would be to bring in Jose Enrique for Leighton Baines at left back, and Clint Dempsey for Scott Parker (but I really don't rate Parker as highly as others do)

Friday, 20 April 2012

English Football Weekend Picks (April 21-22)

The weekend is almost here so I have begun making my picks from the slate of games on offer. As always, I will put up the picks on this post as they come up and I will provide a link to this page on my Twitter feed.


Arsenal v Chelsea Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13885-Arsenal-v-Chelsea.htm)

QPR v Tottenham Hotspur Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13886-QPR-v-Tottenham-Hotspur.htm)

Newcastle United v Stoke City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13887-Newcastle-United-v-Stoke-City.htm)

Fulham v Wigan Athletic Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13915-Fulham-v-Wigan-Athletic.htm)

Blackburn Rovers v Norwich City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13916-Blackburn-Rovers-v-Norwich-City.htm)

Bolton Wanderers v Swansea Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13917-Bolton-Wanderers-v-Swansea.htm)

Brighton v Birmingham City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13918-Brighton-v-Birmingham-City.htm)

Middlesbrough v Southampton Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13919-Middlesbrough-v-Southampton.htm)


MY PICKS: Arsenal-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Panbet (2 Units)
QPR-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 188Bet (2 Units)

Papiss Cisse First Goalscorer @ 5.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Wigan Athletic Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 3.25 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Norwich City Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 3.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
Bolton Wanderers @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.70 Betsson (1 Unit)
Southampton Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.38 Betsson (1 Unit)

Tennis Picks April 20th (Monte Carlo)

There was some sad news for Novak Djokovic yesterday as his grandfather passed away- for a while there were some doubts as to whether the Serb would continue with this tournament, but I think he is going to and will dedicate the rest of the tournament to his grandfather.

He was not likely to enter any tournaments next week, but this is never an easy time for anyone going through this situation.

Both picks fell yesterday, but both Fernando Verdasco and Janko Tipsarevic had their chances in those matches and just couldn't take advantage of their positions.

We have now got to the Quarter Final stage of the tournament and it finally looks like we will get a couple of decent matches in what has been a disappointing Masters event if I am being honest.


Tomas Berdych + 3.5 games v Andy Murray: I can understand the layers making Andy Murray the favourite between these two players, but I think the games in hand makes Tomas Berdych the pick as he is more than capable of this surface and one of the players that I would favour against the British Number 1 on this surface.

I would normally take Berdych straight up to win on a clay court against Murray, but he has not been in great form recently and he has not played great here so far. However, I think he has full confidence in his own ability to beat Murray and I think this match could easily go the distance.

In that case, the extra games could come in handy regardless of who wins.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has beaten Gilles Simon on four straight occasions and I think that is what will give him the edge against his compatriot in this Quarter Final match.

Tsonga was a little fortunate to win the first set against Fernando Verdasco in the last Round, although he did go on to win fairly comfortably in the end. He should still get enough free points if he serves well and I think that scoreboard pressure will eventually tell on Simon.

Tsonga has only lost two sets in the last ten they have competed in, and I think he will have more joy breaking the Simon serve in this one. It might be a tight first set that Simon even takes, but eventually Tsonga should be far too strong and able to cover this spread.


MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych + 3.5 games @ 2.00 Panbet (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)


Weekly Update: + 2.44 Units (9 Units Staked)

Thursday, 19 April 2012

A few thoughts from the last week in Football (April 14-19)

This weeks post is a little later than normal as I figured it would make more sense to cover the first legs of the European Semi Finals as well as the second Championship round of the week.


Grant Holt for the England Euro 2012 squad: I am sure I am not the only person that has heard more and more people suggesting Grant Holt will be perfect not just for the Euro 2012 squad, but as a STARTER for England.


Now don't get me wrong- I have a lot of respect for someone who has done their time at the lower levels in English football and has proven to be a handful in some games for Norwich City in the Premier League, but has he really done enough to be in the England team?


I watched him closely against Manchester City last Saturday lunchtime and I thought he was solid, but no more than that. He isn't a great finisher and while I think he does provide a different sort of threat up front, I don't think he is a better option than Danny Welbeck in any which way.


I don't have great expectations of an England international so don't think it is down to that that I wouldn't pick Holt as my next statement will prove: I don't think Holt is a better option than Peter Crouch and I have seen him the big man barely affect some games which makes me believe he is not ready for this kind of step up.




What would the League have looked like if Carlos Tevez had stayed at City?: Carlos Tevez is a twat...


Right, now that is out of the way, I think City would not have relinquished their lead in the Premier League table if they had brought back Carlos Tevez say around the same time that Manchester United brought back Paul Scholes.


Tevez proved what City had been missing in their away games with a sublime performance at Carrow Road last week, combining work ethic with real quality, attributes which would certainly have turned draws into wins and losses into draws, with these points adding up to keep City top as far as I am concerned.


Everything Tevez gives a team in a hostile away environment is everything Mario Balotelli does not- I think Balotelli has the potential to be a top class player, but there is no doubting he can disappear in games, particularly those tough ones away from home, and he doesn't have the same urge to win the ball back as Tevez does.


I think there will be a lot of City fans wondering how different the season would have been if they could have paired Tevez with Sergio Aguero for the last three months and, while you can never be 100% when it comes to football, I do truly believe it would be City, and not United, leading the way in the table going into the Derby next Monday.




That diving issue again: So Ashley Young was once again caught going down too easily to win a penalty for Manchester United and the whole diving issue just refuses to go away. It is clear it becomes a little more prominent towards the end of the season as more players are trying desperately to pick up the points for clubs in search of titles, promotion or avoiding relegation.


I heard an argument that it looked a penalty on first instance, but this wasn't the game against QPR earlier in the month- that one certainly looked a penalty on first viewing and it was more down to the linesman missing the fact that Young was offside rather than the actual awarding of a penalty.


This one against Villa was different- I called it straight away that 'I bet he barely got touched' and that was because the fall was nowhere near being natural...


Go down to the park and have someone trip you up when you don't expect it and I guarantee there is no way you fling yourself up with arms flailing... In fact, the natural instinct is to throw at least one hand forward to protect yourself against the fall.


It is a shame that Young thinks United need to do this to win games when there is only 7 minutes on the clock. Bryan Robson said today that this is going to come and bite United in the backside if his reputation for being a diver is cemented and I can't disagree.


I know some don't care at the moment as long as United are winning, but the complaints will be loud if a 50-50 decision is not given our way in the Semi Final of a European Cup, because the referee is not convinced by Ashley Young.


However, Sir Alex Ferguson managed to get Ronaldo to be less content to fling himself to the ground during his time at Old Trafford and I think he'll be having plenty of words with Young over the last week.




Another thing that really annoys me- players feigning injuries: I am likely not the only one, but who else hates to see blokes that are big enough to block a doorway go down and roll around when the winds gusts up to 5mph?


I really hate it when a player is fouled but decides to roll around clutching their leg, yet will jump up if touched by the offending player, suddenly rediscovering their machismo and trying to get in the opposition faces...


Now I realise there isn't a lot you can do about that now, although I would like to see less of it, but what really bothers me is the player that will feign an injury when they have lost the ball in a dangerous spot, with all the team mates of said player demanding the opposition kick the ball out.


It becomes more than a little irritating when the player who couldn't move on the floor then gets up, the team's defensive shape is back, and they are applauded when they kick the ball back to the opposition goalkeeper...


Now that is as blatant cheating as diving in my opinion as players do this to allow their team to be re-organised and prevent any sort of counter attack developing so what would I do?


If I was making the rules, any time the team asks for the ball to be put out for an injury, they would have two options for their 'injured' player- either substitute him straight away, OR make him leave the field for 5 minutes... That would quickly make sure the team who had the counter attack opportunity do not lose their advantage for teams that are stretching the rule and I guarantee it would stop players demanding a ball is kicked out of play just so the downed team mate can get up and get back into a defensive shape.


It won't happen, but I can't be the only one that hates seeing that kind of thing.




Both Spanish Giants losing in the Champions League Semi Final: You would have been over the moon if you had backed both Real Madrid and Barcelona to lose the first leg of their respective Semi Finals this week, with both teams losing in differing circumstances.


Real Madrid were outplayed by Bayern Munich for the first half of their game, but I thought they would have pushed on when they equalised. However, it seemed Jose Mourinho was more than happy to take a score draw back to Madrid until they were undone with a last minute goal from Mario Gomez.


I still think this tie is very very close to call now as Bayern definitely look like they have at least one goal in them at the Santiago Bernebeu, while the attacking talent Real Madrid have is plain for all to see. Both defences looked a little nervy when being attacked and this could be another entertaining game next Wednesday.


By the way, I thought the game in Munich was good viewing so was a little surprised that so many didn't think so.




All credit to Chelsea for the way they won their Semi Final first leg as they employed the correct tactics and managed to score with their only meaningful effort all night.


But I don't want people to change their judgement of the game based on the scoreline- in all honesty, Barcelona dominated the game and created not one or two, but five clear cut chances that should really have been gobbled up.


I think Chelsea will go to the Nou Camp and set themselves up in a similar manner, but they will absolutely need to ride their luck as they did at Stamford Bridge and I would still happily favour Barcelona to overturn this deficit and get through on Tuesday.

Tennis Picks April 19th (Monte Carlo)

I don't know if it is just me, but it doesn't feel like a Masters event here at Monte Carlo this year and I am not sure why that is... Is it the absence of Roger Federer? Is it the fact that six of the top 20 have not turned up here? Or is it the fact that there seem to be a lot of matches that don't have the 'wow' factor?

Whatever it is, the tournament has reached Round 3 and we get down to the last 16 players in the tournament. The path for Novak Djokovic was just cleared a little yesterday as Thomaz Bellucci knocked out David Ferrer in two very one sided sets.

The picks were also successful with both Tomas Berdych and Gilles Simon winning without too many issues. With the way the tournament has panned out so far, it looks like another tough day to get too involved in the matches.


Fernando Verdasco v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: I said before the Miami that I thought Fernando Verdasco was beginning to find some of the form that took him into the top 10 of the World Rankings in 2009, but he was a disappointing 3rd Round loser to Nicolas Almagro in that event.

He is now back on the surface on which he would have grown up and the Spaniard has made a decent start here in Monte Carlo by coming through his first couple of Rounds, although in more difficult fashion than I would have imagined.

Despite that, I think he is being under-estimated against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

The Frenchman was a comfortable winner in his first match here, but he has not found any consistency on clay courts, going just 7-6 last season after finishing 14-9 in the previous two seasons.

Tsonga did not get past the 3rd Round in any tournament on a clay court last season, and I think taking Verdasco as the big dog could pay off.

Janko Tipsarevic v Gilles Simon: I am going against one of the winners from yesterday with a favourite of mine in the form of Janko Tipsarevic.

I have so much respect for the Serb who has made the most of the talent he has been blessed with and he is clearly beginning to feel he belongs at the back end of tournaments these days with his latest success coming in reaching the Quarter Final in Miami.

My biggest concern for him in this match up is that Gilles Simon can frustrate opponents with his ability to make them closer to the lines thanks to his keeping balls in play. That can be made a lot tougher for opponents mentally on the slower surfaces.

Simon also has won all 3 meetings between the players, including twice last season, although both of those were incredibly tight contests.

I just think Tipsarevic has a slightly more solid serve and the chance to hold on to serve and that is why I like him to get his first win on the board against Simon. The Serb has been set as the underdog so could be worth a small interest too.


MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco @ 2.75 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Janko Tipsarevic @ 2.20 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


Weekly Update: 3-1, + 4.44 Units (7 Units Staked)