Manchester City v Manchester United (April 30th 2012)

So it is almost time for the biggest Manchester Derby in living memory and one that could go an absolutely long way to deciding the final destiny of the Premier League title this season.

Manchester United will be extremely disappointed they don't have more margin for error coming into the game having dropped points at Wigan Athletic and, more disappointingly, last week at home to Everton.

That has enabled Manchester City to close the gap, but this is the first time they will be playing under any kind of pressure since their 1-0 loss to Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium earlier in the month.

Below, I will set out what I feel will be the keys to the outcome of the game, will provide a link for the preview I have of the game and also the final pick of April.

Keys to the Game

The Midfield battle: As with any Manchester United game of real importance, Sir Alex Ferguson has to make the correct choices in the problematic midfield positions to ensure they are not overrun in that area.

The biggest key will be making sure the movement of the likes of Yaya Toure, David Silva and Samir Nasri are accounted for at all times- they dynamic pass and move midfields like Barcelona last year, and Athletic Bilbao this year have made United a little static on that front and they cannot afford to leave the space between midfield and defence that the likes of Silva and Nasri will look to move into.

With Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez up front, they will make the little runs that can be hard to track for defenders, so United must cut off the supply by clogging up the space in front of the defence and not allowing Silva and Nasri to turn and face the defence.

We saw in the Bilbao game how easy it is for teams to get at United if they have men exploiting the spaces they leave behind the midfield and that could be a terminal problem for the title challenge if they do the same today.

I wouldn't be surprised if Sir Alex starts Wayne Rooney on the left to make sure that the likes of Carrick, Scholes and AN Other have enough bodies in the middle of the park where City like to do their best work.

That system will turn into a 4-3-3 on the attack with Rooney and Valencia being able to support Danny Welbeck who should be the furthest player up front.

The Counter Attack: This is going to be where United are likely to find their most success in this game and they have to be smart with their decision making when going forward. City are likely to leave a few spaces at the back and we have seen the likes of Sunderland and Sporting Lisbon really exploit the gaps behind the full backs that will need to push on for space.

IF United can clog up the midfield in the manner described above, that means the most space City will have is in the wider areas, an area in which Micah Richards and Gael Clichy will be expected to move into... That is when the likes of Wayne Rooney and Antonio Valencia will have to be ready to provide a quick outlet for the United team when they win the ball back and look to get in behind the City midfield.

There were occasions that Wolves managed to find themselves in healthy 3 on 4 situations and with both Sunderland and Sporting Lisbon also exploiting these situations, it looks the best way for United to get a foothold in this game.

Being clinical in front of goal: I think it is fair to say that the City front two of Sergio Aguero and Carlos Tevez are a little more clinical than United's Wayne Rooney and Danny Welbeck, but I think the last of those players is the one that can make or break it for the away side.

Welbeck looked like a real finisher when he first moved up to the senior team and while his overall game play has come on leaps and bounds, he can be a little hit or miss in front of goal at the moment.

United will need him to have his shooting boots on tonight as there is a lot of pressure of being the main forward in games like these- I am expecting Wayne Rooney to have to put in a big shift for United defending and perhaps playing wider when United do go forward, so it will be on Danny Welbeck's shoulders to get in amongst the two centre backs.

The young England striker has scored against City in the Cup this season, while also getting a big goal at Arsenal, so he does have it in him, but he must show full composure tonight and take any kind of chance he gets.

Set Pieces: This is interesting as City do look a real threat from set pieces with the size of Toure, Lescott and Kompany and all three have been amongst the goals in these situations. I expect United to counter that by bringing in Chris Smalling at right back to offer more protection from corners and free kicks that will be put in the box.

On the other side, I think this could be an area where United can enjoy some success too, especially if City go with the smaller side and use the likes of Clichy ahead of Kolarov and Tevez instead of Balotelli.

Chelsea managed to get a goal from a set piece against City in a game here last month, while United have always put in great stock in this part of the game.

Who can handle the pressure better: This is where United will feel they have the edge as they have plenty of players that have been there and done it in the past when it comes to winning the Premier League title and so I do expect a very experienced side to be put out by Sir Alex tonight, one containing the likes of Ferdinand, Evra, Giggs, Scholes, Carrick and Rooney.

City, on the other hand, really crumbled a little under the pressure of having to achieve results last month and in the early part of April, but look back to their best recently.

However, this is the first time they will be under any real pressure again as they know a win is the only result that matters- it will be interesting to see if they have mentally toughened up from a few weeks ago for a game of this magnitude and it could be the absolute key to the game.

It is a cliché, but the first goal is going to be absolutely crucial tonight- if United get it, it will be very interesting to see how City react, while if City get it, will they really start believing?

Manchester City v Manchester United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14028-Manchester-City-v-Manchester-United.htm)

MY PICK: Score Draw @ 6.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

A few thoughts from the last week in Football (April 21-22)

Title race is back on: I watched with disbelief and disappointment as Manchester United threw away a 4-2 lead against Everton with less than 8 minutes remaining at Old Trafford to drop 2 more points in the the title race and once again give Manchester City a real boost in the arm.


That means there are just 3 points between the teams with 3 games left to play, the first of which is the big Manchester Derby next Monday night.


It is very strange to see United playing in this manner once they had opened up an 8 point lead in the title race, but I think Sir Alex Ferguson will make sure he is all over his players for the next few days and make sure they are ready for the big game at City.


However, I still favour United to win the title as I do think they have the 'easier' matches on paper- I would expect United to beat Swansea at home (but then I was sure they would get the win over Everton) and then win at a Sunderland side that is struggling for goals.


On the other hand, City have a really difficult game at Newcastle United, especially with the latter fighting for a Champions League place and then face relegation threatened QPR that may still need the points- what are the chances of Mark Hughes getting his revenge on Sheikh Mansour and his cronies by preventing them winning the title on the final day of the season?


Sky couldn't have been more pleased with the outcome though, as they have a chance to over-hype the game- there is no doubt this is one of the biggest end of season clashes I can remember in a long time.


While it isn't quite the Liverpool-Arsenal game from the end of the 1989 season, it is obviously a match that can have a huge bearing on where the title is going to end up.




Wolves are gone, Bolton Wanderers are in big trouble: Wolves couldn't delay the inevitable any longer on Sunday as their relegation was confirmed from the Premier League, while the results at the weekend have made it that much more difficult for Bolton Wanderers who could only pick up a 1-1 draw against Swansea at the Reebok Stadium.


With QPR and Blackburn Rovers both winning, Bolton are now 4 points behind the teams in the safety zone, although they still have 5 games to play this season. However, it is the points that matter at this stage rather than the games in hand, and Bolton need to find a win in one of their next two games at Aston Villa or Sunderland.


It still looks really tight down the bottom though- Aston Villa are only 6 points clear of Bolton so a defeat for them tomorrow night will really up the pressure on Alex McLeish and for a young team that is suffering from a number of injuries.


There are some big matches yet to be played in the final weeks of the season, with none looking bigger than the Blackburn Rovers-Wigan Athletic game in two weeks time.




Harry Redknapp for England(!): Why are so many people quick to protect Harry Redknapp and blame Tottenham's lack of form on his links with the England job rather than poor management? As I have said all season, the team had a lack of depth not because Redknapp was not backed in the market, but because the manager continues to stock-pile midfield players without adding strength to his forward line nor his defence.


The other factor people continue to overlook is the lack of a 'plan B' for when things are not going right for the team, all factors that are highlighted in International tournaments when games come thick and fast.


He has also allowed Gareth Bale to play without fear of retribution if he fails to perform, letting the winger get away with thinking he can drift wherever he wants on the football field, usually to a lack of effect.


Bale's own constant self-comparison with Cristiano Ronaldo has been tolerated when someone should really be sitting him down and warning him how far he is from that consistent performances the former Manchester United play provides- the fact Bale is allowed to constantly talk about potential moves to Barcelona or Real Madrid (he wouldn't get near either team in my honest opinion) is another issue that could potentially divide a dressing room.


All of these questions should be left at the door of Redknapp, but far too many are blinded by achievements which, while good, are vastly over-rated.




So Roy Hodgson has as many wins at Anfield in 2012 as Kenny Dalglish: I know Liverpool are going to be playing their second Cup Final of the season next month against Chelsea in the FA Cup, but surely this has to be considered a season when the club has regressed.


Alan Hansen said recently that Liverpool had become a 'Cup team' and I think he has pigeon-holed his former club in the exactly correct way.


The Reds are 8th in the Premier League table, but there has to be a real fear that they will not even finish in the top half of the table, a far cry from the expectations of a battle to finish in the Champions League places and a lot of the blame has to fall at Kenny Dalglish's door, although you wouldn't hear a bad word said about the manager from the fans.


To think they are now 37 points behind the leaders Manchester United and only 23 ahead of the Wolves team that props up the rest of the table should put it all into perspective for how bad a season this has actually been for Liverpool.




How did Sergio Aguero not win an award in the Player of the Year categories he was nominated in?: I had Sergio Aguero as an absolute shoo-in to win the Young Player of the Year award as I thought the main award would go to Robin Van Persie, but I am more than a little surprised that he didn't get it.


Kyle Walker was given the Young Player of the Year award and, while I recognise he has had a very good season, I think it's a little disgraceful that Aguero was not given it, despite powering Manchester City's title race with his goals in the absence of Carlos Tevez.


So many times we have seen a foreign import come into the Premier League and really struggle, but 22 League goals later and I think Aguero has proven he can more than handle what the League brings.


I would have also had the Argentine in the Team of the Year (he missed out on that to Van Persie and Wayne Rooney), but I could understand that a little more considering the goals of the two players that did make the team.




My Team of the Year in the Premier League: So we got the Team of the Year in the Premier League earlier this week and I have to say I don't think there was much wrong with the team at all.


I think the only changes I would have made would be to bring in Jose Enrique for Leighton Baines at left back, and Clint Dempsey for Scott Parker (but I really don't rate Parker as highly as others do)