NFL Week 9 Picks 2014 (October 30-November 3)

What was the one thing I said I didn't want to do in Week 8? It was not blowing the success of Week 7, but that is exactly what happened, although I was more annoyed with some of my 'square' picks than anything else. There were at least three games that could easily have swung my way, but that's the nature of the beast and I have had a few days to recover from a huge body blow I have taken.

Week 8 Thoughts

The New York Jets will be looking for a new Quarter Back in the Draft: The New York Jets are not exactly a team that many will be rushing to watch after their 1-7 start to the season, but last week has to be the nail in the coffin for Geno Smith as far as fans and staff have to be concerned.

He was absolutely brutal against the Buffalo Bills and it looks to also be the death knell for Rex Ryan as Head Coach which means there should be a new search for a Quarter Back in the next Draft. The Jets will be well positioned to take one of the big names coming out of College as they look set to finish the season with a top five pick and they will move from Smith.

Michael Vick wasn't much better in relief, but Ryan looks set to land on his feet as many believe he could be the next Head Coach of the Atlanta Falcons- I actually think Ryan will do well for Atlanta once he moves away from this mess in New York as the Jets get set for another rebuild with the key position of Quarter Back top of their list.

The criticism of JJ Watt and his 'selfie' celebration: JJ Watt sacked Zach Mettenberger and took a pretend 'selfie' shot and was then criticised because he told the media he was making a statement that they are 'in the NFL and not high school'.

Watt took exception to the fact that Mettenberger had been posting shots of himself in the hours leading up to the Texans visit to Tennessee and has since been criticised which makes absolutely zero sense to me.

In my opinion, Watt is dead right- there is a time and place for social media fun and it is certainly not in the hours leading up to a big Divisional game when you are making your first start in the professional Leagues. He was making a point to a kid about how to conduct yourself at a professional level and he is certainly someone I would describe as a pretty strong role model in the NFL, one that Mettenberger should definitely take notes from if he is to become a full time starter in the League.

Ken Whisenhunt already decided his Quarter Back needed a makeover and has made it clear Mettenberger needs to act 'the right way' for Tennessee so clearly the Head Coach would most likely accept what Watt was doing.

Stupidest thing I saw all week: You have called out your team-mates for their losses and declared not arriving with a new team to lose... You are then down huge in your next game and you sack a rookie Quarter... This is definitely NOT what you do next.

Lamarr Houston tore his ACL, much like Stephen Tulloch did in a similar manner, and is now out for the season that is getting worse and worse for the Chicago Bears.

Best moment of the week: It has to been the 'discussion' between Anthony Dixon and Sheldon Richardson about where the ball should be placed.

Top Ten

1) Denver Broncos (6-1): They lead the AFC and the Denver Broncos look the team to beat in this Conference after reaching the Super Bowl last season.

2) Arizona Cardinals (6-1): I can't ignore the Arizona Cardinals any more and they can make a big statement this week if they can win in Dallas.

3) New England Patriots (6-2): The Patriots host the Denver Broncos this week and can make a big statement about how far they have come since the Kansas City debacle.

4) Dallas Cowboys (6-2): It was a bad loss to Washington on Monday Night Football, but Dallas have a big week ahead with a huge game against Arizona and don't deserve to drop too far down.

5) Detroit Lions (6-2): A big leap up the Rankings after coming from a big deficit to somehow beat Atlanta in London, but the bye could see a healthier and dangerous Lions emerge in Week 10.

6) Kansas City Chiefs (4-3): Another team I have pushed way up the Rankings as they come into contention in the AFC West.

7) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3): Still inconsistent, but the Offense may have turned a corner in the last six Quarters.

8) Indianapolis Colts (5-3): It was a poor loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the Colts still lead the AFC South.

9) San Diego Chargers (5-3): Injuries to key Defensive players are hurting the San Diego Chargers but they will hope to be in better shape going into this week with a few more days rest.

10) Green Bay Packers (5-3): Aaron Rodgers looked to have really done some damage to his hamstring which turned the game against the New Orleans Saints, but the bye comes at the right time.

Bottom Five

32) Oakland Raiders (0-7): A Head Coach change hasn't changed the Oakland fortunes who remain set to end the season with the Number 1 Pick in the Draft.

31) New York Jets (1-7): Only their opening week win over the Oakland Raiders keeps them out of bottom spot, but the Jets are just horrific.

30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-6): Losing to Minnesota at home when the Offense can barely move the chains for much of the season doesn't exactly inspire.

29) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-7): They need more from Blake Bortles, but there are so many holes in this Jacksonville team.

28) Atlanta Falcons (2-5): Arthur Blank made the point that being up 21 at half time means you shouldn't be losing that game, but Atlanta somehow managed to do that and Mike Smith has to be nine games away from losing his job as Head Coach at this rate.

Week 9 Picks

It was an awful week, one of the worst I have had in the last three years, as almost every pick I made found themselves heading into the loser category to spoil a strong first seven weeks of the season. The Baltimore Ravens had no right to lose their game against the Cincinnati Bengals in the way the final four minutes went down, while an injury to Aaron Rodgers at a key time changed all the momentum in the Green Bay loss to New Orleans.

The Seattle Seahawks miscues in the Carolina territory prevented them covering too, especially Russell Wilson throwing a pick and then missing a wide open Receiver which basically took off at least ten points off the board.

I wish I could just say it was bad luck, but the Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears didn't really come close to a cover, while the Lions had no right to beat Atlanta let alone cover.

Bad week... But you have to move on.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The NFC South lead is up for grabs on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, although I don't think anyone would have thought both the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers would be without a winning record going into the game.

Most won't need me to tell you that the New Orleans Saints are not as good on the road as they are at home, while there is the feeling they got away with one last week thanks to the Aaron Rodgers hamstring issue at a critical point of the game when it was tied. It allowed the Saints to play their Defense in a manner that they were barely worried about Rodgers running the ball, but that won't be the case against Cam Newton.

On the other hand, Rob Ryan won't be as concerned with the passing game and the Saints have been decent against the run despite a returning DeAngelo Williams for the Panthers at Running Back. The front seven finally got some pressure going too so the Saints may be able to bring Newton down in the backfield as they had success doing last season.

Mark Ingram is back to full health for the Saints as he showed on Sunday Night Football and the former Heisman Trophy winner could rip off big gains for New Orleans in this one. Carolina have struggled to contain the run and that will open up the play-action for Drew Brees to find Brandin Cooks and Kenny Stills deep down the field.

New Orleans aren't as good outdoors as they are in the SuperDome, but they should have won here last season and Brees won't have to worry as much about the six sacks he took in the loss here. Greg Hardy's absence has been huge for Carolina and they haven't generated the same success up front as they did in the 2013 season and Ingram's ability to run the ball should also keep the pocket clean for Brees.

With the Saints performances as a road favourite over the last two seasons, this is the kind of pick you could end up hating yourself for making, but New Orleans should have won at least 2 of their 4 road games they have lost this season. With Carolina just struggling a touch Offensively and their Defense not playing to the standard of last season, I like the New Orleans Saints to win and cover on the road.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: When the Cleveland Browns beat the Pittsburgh Steelers and then looked at a schedule that saw them take on Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay in succession, there was no much positive energy going into this stretch of games. However, the Browns have been fortunate to win even one of the games with the Jaguars and Raiders and now they have to try and focus on Tampa Bay just four days before a huge Divisional game against the Cincinnati Bengals.

That won't be easy for a team that has struggled to run the ball since Alex Mack went down with an injury and with a Quarter Back who is beginning to feel the pressure from a popular back up rookie.

Mike Glennon isn't having an easier time with Tampa Bay and must know that the Buccaneers are likely to have been eyeing a new Quarter Back in the next Draft. Even Josh McCown looks closer to being re-named the stater for Lovie Smith, but Glennon may be able to relieve some pressure in this one.

He should be helped by the Buccaneers being able to establish the run which will at least keep the chains moving and also leave Glennon in short down and distance to work with which should, in theory, make it easier to hit Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans with big throws.

Getting a Touchdown start with Tampa Bay looks too big considering Cleveland have that Divisional game on Thursday Night Football and the fact they have been outgained by two teams that were winless going into the last two weeks. The Browns were very fortunate to beat Oakland by 10 last week and I like the Buccaneers to definitely keep this closer than that.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: Usually I would shy away from picking a big favourite just four days before they have to play on Thursday Night Football, especially if that game is against a Divisional rival. However, that could be balanced out by the fact that the Jacksonville Jaguars are heading to London to face the Dallas Cowboys following this game and they were beaten by 17 points last season when going into that game.

Denard Robinson will get the start at Running Back and he should have a decent game for Jacksonville, but the problem is the Offensive Line which has struggled to protect Blake Bortles. That hasn't helped the rookie Quarter Back who has made too many mistakes and thrown too many Interceptions and that could make it difficult for the Jaguars to move the ball consistently.

The Defense has played well in recent games, but Andy Dalton has AJ Green back in the starting line up which should give him plenty of chances to hit the big pass downfield.

Cincinnati have been strong coming off a Divisional win in recent spots like that and have been a decent team to back at home against the spread. This is a big number, but I like the Bengals to prove too good for Jacksonville and come through with a win by two Touchdowns.


San Diego Chargers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The San Diego Chargers have to travel across the country for an early kick off and I really like the Miami Dolphins to make it three wins in a row and really get themselves involved in the AFC Play Off discussion.

Injuries are another factor that are beginning to hurt San Diego and I think the Dolphins find it 'easier' to move the chains consistently in the game.

Lamar Miller can have a strong day running the ball and pick up from where Ronnie Hillman left off in Week 8 and that should set up Ryan Tannehill in short distances to make plays. With Jason Verrett ruled out and Brandon Flowers returning from a concussion, Miami should be able to score points and keep the Chargers off-balance with their Offense.

That won't be as easy for San Diego despite how well Philip Rivers has been playing this season as his Offensive Line is struggling in pass protection and that is where the Miami Dolphins can have a lot of success. Cameron Wake and the Defensive Line should crash down on Rivers which prevents the time for the big plays downfield, while he can't rely on a running game being established to ease that pressure as Miami have held teams to just 4.1 yards per carry.

This is a small spread which does concern me, but the Dolphins are 14-7 against the spread when either favoured or dogged by 3 points and I like them to cover in this one.


St Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: With both teams at 1-1 in the very tough NFC West, this is a game that neither the San Francisco 49ers or the St Louis Rams can dare to lose.

The Rams showed they are capable of going at it with the best in the Division when beating the Seattle Seahawks at home, but that took a lot of trickery for it to come through. San Francisco have already shown they have the team that can beat St Louis, although Jim Harbaugh won't take them lightly after the start the Rams made when these teams met earlier in the season.

The bye week will have given San Francisco time to get a little healthier Defensively and they showed their pass rush is able to get the better of the St Louis Offensive Line before Jake Long went down with an injury.

Colin Kaepernick should be able to pick up from where he left off in the last game with the Rams as the Secondary is still giving up big plays and the limited pressure they are getting up front shouldn't be a problem against someone who can scramble as well as this Quarter Back can. Russell Wilson had 300 passing yards and 100 rushing yards against St Louis and while Kaepernick won't reach those numbers, he can have a huge game against them.

The 49ers are 3-1 against the spread in the last three season when favoured by between 7.5 and 10 points at home and I think they can improve on those coming off their bye and win this by double digits.


Oakland Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: They may be the Super Bowl Champions with wins over Green Bay and Denver this season, but the Seattle Seahawks haven't looked themselves over the last month. Closer than expected wins over Washington and Carolina is one thing, but losses to Dallas and St Louis are big disappointments.

Seattle did win in Week 8 and they looked a lot better Defensively which could be a big problem for rookie Derek Carr who won't have much support with Oakland establishing a running game. Carr is going to be playing in the most intimidating atmosphere so far in his NFL career and I just feel the game comes too early for him after the Raiders put in a lot of effort in coming close to upsetting Cleveland last week.

With the Denver Broncos next on deck, Oakland could definitely be looking beyond this non-Conference game that they aren't expected to win- some will call for a 'nothing to lose' attitude, but players may be saving themselves for Divisional rivals the Broncos.

I do have respect for the veterans in the Oakland locker room as they have been competitive in all but one game this season, but a road game against Seattle is incredibly tough especially if the Defense is creating turnovers as they did against Carolina.

The spread is huge and one that is tough to overcome in the professional game, but Seattle are going to blow someone out sooner or later and I think this game comes at the right time for them.


Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: This is one of the big feature games in the NFL and is one that has usually determined the winner of the AFC North, although the last couple of years has seen the Cincinnati Bengals getting involved and leading the way.

That won't lessen the the meaning of this game for both teams who come in at 5-3 with the winner in a strong position and the loser in a desperate spot. It will definitely be a worse loss for the Steelers who would be swept by Baltimore and drop to 1-3 in the Division, but the Ravens blew a second game against Cincinnati this season which means a loss here would see them at 2-3.

Both teams should have their chances to move the chains, although it does feel that Baltimore will get the better balance from their Offense as their Defense has been very good against the run. However, injuries to the Secondary could be a problem if Ben Roethlisberger is on fire as he was in Week 8.

The Steelers as the home underdog is very appealing this week although they haven't played well in revenge situations when it comes to covering the spread. However, it is tough to sweep a Divisional rival when they are as closely matched as these teams and I will take the points on offer.

0 Unit Picks: Arizona Cardinals - 1 Point, Philadelphia Eagles - 2 Points, Kansas City Chiefs - 9 Points, Washington Redskins + 1 Point, New England Patriots + 3 Points

MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 10 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 13.5 Points @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Week 8: 1-8, - 13 Units
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 34-31-2, + 4.74 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Week 9 Picks 2013 (October 31-November 4)

Last week was terrible for me personally in terms of a really busy period at work and the fact that my phone has stopped working meaning I can't do much for the blog while I am on the move. Thankfully, this week isn't seeing too many late finishes, at least not early in the week, and I have the chance to put up a full post for this week's NFL slate of games.

The last couple of weeks have been very solid for the picks after a horrible Week 6 when a lot of luck deserted me, but that came back the last couple of weeks to keep the season moving in the right direction. This is now the time of the season when injuries are going to really start affecting teams and there are plenty of big name players that have already seen their seasons come to a close and that is what makes picking a Super Bowl winner so demanding back in September.

Week 8 Thoughts

Half Term Report: Technically we have reached just short of the half way point, but it is still a good time to see how the NFL is shaping up as there have been enough games to separate contenders and those teams that are almost done as a Play Off threat.

Injuries have really killed the Atlanta Falcons at this stage and the consensus pick for the NFC South, and a trendy Super Bowl pick, are almost certainly out of contention already. Other teams that have really disappointed me are Pittsburgh, Houston, Tampa Bay and the New York Giants.

I thought all of those could have been potential Play Off teams, but I am less surprised by Washington and Minnesota's drop from last season.

The biggest surprise is comfortably the Kansas City Chiefs, although I again said they would be a lot better than last season thanks to that Defense, but I didn't think they would be the last unbeaten team left in the NFL. Detroit are 5-3 and playing up to the potential they have, but a dark horse could be the Carolina Panthers who have turned around their form far earlier than last season and finally have a winning record for the first time in years.

New England will win the AFC East, but they are not going to win the AFC: It seems easy to say which team won't make the Super Bowl, but I am going further with the New England Patriots as I think they could potentially be ripe for the Wild Card Weekend upset if they don't improve rapidly.

New England were fortunate to beat the Miami Dolphins on Sunday and that win had more to do with their opponents losing their way than anything else. Tom Brady hasn't looked himself and his hand definitely is giving him some problems, while the Receivers are still learning.

The most pressing concern will come from the injuries occurred on the Defensive side of the ball and I don't think they would be able to slow down Denver in a straight shoot-out, while both Indianapolis and Cincinnati definitely look too good. If Kansas City win the AFC West, Denver could be a potential visitor to New England in the Wild Card Round and I just don't think this Patriots team is good enough to go all the way in the AFC.

The disappointment of a Miami Dolphins fan: After going 3-0, I did say Miami were probably fortunate to get to that position, but I was expecting more than the team going 0-4 in their next four games. In fact, it can be said that Miami have blown at least 2 of those games, possibly 3 of those games, and much of that is down to mistakes made by the Offense.

Ryan Tannehill is only in his second season, but he has to do better when it comes to protecting the ball- it isn't the Interceptions that bother me, although a couple of those have been down to poor decision making, but the fumbles are beginning to hurt the Dolphins massively.

It's the strip sack that cost Miami the game against Buffalo and he had another against the Patriots as Miami blew a 17-3 half time lead... He has to do better, but if you can't look after the ball, you just won't win too many games.

Tannehill is young and I think he has shown enough to believe he will lead the Dolphins to better things, especially as he hasn't been protected effectively all season, but he has to show the fans improvements and not regress into bad throws as he has at times. Unfortunately, coming up against the hot Cincinnati Bengals on a short week isn't the best way to turn things around.

Should fans be concerned about Peyton Manning? There has definitely been some issue for Peyton Manning the last couple of weeks, but I think the bye is going to come at exactly the right time for the veteran Quarter Back.

He did look a little beaten up in the game against Washington, while Manning has been listed with a ankle injury but we won't really know how much that bothers him just yet. I would be more concerned if the Offensive Line can't improve their play with games against Kansas City in their second half of the season.

Manning might not have the perfect deep ball any more, but he is still capable of leading this team to glory although I will again say the Offensive Line has to improve and the Defense has to show they can at least slow teams down a little and not need their Offense to put up over 40 points to win games.

The Giants are back in the NFC East: I said above that the New York Giants have been one of the most disappointing teams of the season as far as I am concerned, but it says a lot about the NFC East that they are still in the Division.

Being 1-2 in the Division is a problem for the Giants when considering Dallas are 2 games in front of them with a 3-0 record in the East, but it is New York who have the momentum and will go into their bye to prepare for a 3 game stretch at home.

One of those games is against Dallas and New York could be right back in contention in the Division if they can 2-1 in their next 3 games as long as one of those wins is against the Cowboys. I predicted an 8-8 record could be enough to win the NFC East at the start of the season and it is a big ask for the Giants to go 6-2 in the second half of the season considering the schedule they have left.

However, Tom Coughlin and the Giants will be glad that their season isn't over yet and they could still surprise by winning the East, although I would back Dallas if I was picking a team today.

Top Five

1) Kansas City Chiefs (8-0): I am not convinced about the Chiefs, as I have said all season, but they remain the last unbeaten team so deserve the top spot... They do remind me of the last time the Chiefs made the Play Offs and were blown out by Baltimore though and I would like to see what this team would do if they went down by a couple of scores.

2) Denver Broncos (7-1): Bye has come at the right time to try and get Peyton Manning back up to full health.

3) Seattle Seahawks (7-1): Bad day in the office for the Offense against St Louis and now they have lost Sidney Rice for the season and Percy Harvin has had a setback in his return to action.

4) New Orleans Saints (6-1): Jimmy Graham is still hobbled, but the Saints have enough weapons to use the Tight End solely as a red zone threat.

5) San Francisco 49ers (6-2): The return to the power running game has sparked the 49ers and the team is getting healthier at the right time to make another run to the Super Bowl.

Honourable mentions: Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers

Bottom Five

32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8): They look even worse in real life than they do on TV.

31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7): I don't know if this team has given up on Greg Schiano, but the Defense has struggled to stop anyone the last three games... Finally someone has seen sense and Tampa Bay will at least be using Darrelle Revis in man coverage going forward.

30) Minnesota Vikings (1-6): Another team with no real belief and no chance of going anywhere this season.

29) Washington Redskins (2-5): Had a big lead in Denver, but the Offense couldn't keep things going and the Defense eventually played to the level they have all season and allowed the Broncos to win easily.

28) Houston Texans (2-5): Case Keenum will start at Quarter Back going forward and Houston have lost 5 in a row... Have to beat Indianapolis this weekend if the Texans are to maintain any real hope of making the Play Offs.

Week 9 Picks

It has been a good couple of weeks, although I will be the first to admit that Denver had no right covering last week as they were 25 points behind the spread in the third quarter before scoring three Touchdowns in a eight minute span. Denver ended up covering by more than a Touchdown, and that made up for the fact that Detroit only won by 1 point despite beating Dallas in almost all facets of the game except for the 4 turnovers the Cowboys created.

This week does look tougher on first glance, but hopefully the momentum of the last couple of weeks can be carried forward.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Jonathan Martin has been excused from the Miami Dolphins team after an incident in the cafeteria during the week and that is not good news for Ryan Tannehill who has been playing behind a shaky Offensive Line all season.

Tyson Clabo will come back in at Right Tackle, but he is going to be in for a long day against this Cincinnati pass rush up front and that is going to cause problems for Tannehill who has definitely regressed the last few weeks.

Miami have to do better with the play-calling that has been questioned all week, but it will be tough to run on the Bengals as much as they did against New England and that means trying to find Tannehill some time who will also be missing Brandon Gibson for the rest of the season.

The Bengals are off a near perfect performance in seeing off the New York Jets and they will still see this as a critical game to take. Andy Dalton is playing at his best level since joining the NFL, but he too will be under pressure from a Miami Defense that gets a lot of pressure up front. The Quarter Back can't rely on the Bengals establishing a running game, but will have to exercise the screen pass to Giovani Bernard and also hope Marvin Jones continues from where he left off against the Jets.

Dalton has steered clear of the Interceptions that have prevented him moving to the next level and the momentum is totally behind Cincinnati in this one. Turnovers have killed Miami during their 4 game losing run, and it is hard to see how they recover from some of the internal issues that have arisen going into this short week.

The Bengals have flattered to deceive in a road loss at Cleveland earlier this season, but I think they want to ride their momentum going into the game with Baltimore in ten days time and I like them for a unit to cover a spread that has hit the key number.


Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: This is a huge statement game for Carolina where they can put away a Divisional rival and also spark a real belief that they can either chase down the New Orleans Saints in the Division or get involved in the Wild Card race.

Carolina have a lot of momentum behind them and they have put together three good games, reminding me a little of the way they ended last season. The push has come earlier this time around and the Panthers do look a dangerous team going forward.

I expect they will be able to move the chains on the ground initially which will open the passing lanes for Cam Newton, while making the Atlanta Offense one-dimensional by slowing down Steven Jackson will help the Defense force Matt Ryan into awkward positions.

It is a big number for Carolina to cover in this one if Atlanta were a little healthier, but they have so many injuries on both sides of the ball that I just can't see the Falcons keeping up. Matt Ryan will make some plays, but Carolina should control the clock and their Defense looks the strongest unit on the field that should be able to make plays to give Cam Newton and the Offense extra possessions.

As I said, it is a big number, but I like the Panthers to make a statement to the rest of the NFC in this one.


Tennessee Titans @ St Louis Rams Pick: The Tennessee Titans are coming off a bye and will be fully focused on winning this game with a date against the dire Jacksonville Jaguars next on deck. Tennessee will look at this game as a chance to build momentum ahead of back to back Divisional games that will put them in a position to challenge for the AFC South crown.

On the other hand, I have been trying to figure all week how the St Louis Rams will get up for a non-Conference game on a short week after coming so close to beating a Divisional rival on Monday Night Football. The Rams put in everything they had in the gas tank to win that game, and I don't know how they could recover in time to be ready for this one.

The Jeff Fisher factor may inspire the home team who will want to win this game for their Head Coach against his former team, but that may not be enough for them.

Jake Locker is definitely the better Quarter Back playing in this one and I can see the Titans forcing Kellen Clemens into a couple of mistakes that allows them to leave here with the win. The spread has been stuck on a key number which doesn't help, but I like the Titans to cover here.


Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The Dallas Cowboys have been the team to back when it comes to against the spread this season and they covered in another losing effort last weekend.

That won't appease Cowboys fans who can't afford to see Dallas slip up in this game if they have serious ambitions to make it to the Play Offs. With games at New Orleans and New York Giants to come in the next two weeks, losing to a 1-6 Minnesota Vikings team at home is unthinkable.

Minnesota are off a big loss at home to Divisional rivals Green Bay Packers and will be starting Christian Ponder again at Quarter Back. He may have a little more success against a prevent Defense that Dallas run, while Adrian Peterson may finally get back on track as he deals with a hamstring issue.

The absence of Demarcus Ware will make life a little easier for Ponder, but I am not sure he has the confidence to take advantage behind an Offensive Line that has struggled to protect whoever lines up behind Center.

Dallas have also not looked that good Offensively in recent games, although they still have made some big plays. The lack of a running game has to be a concern, but DeMarco Murray may return this week to at least keep the Vikings honest and also offer better protection for Tony Romo. The Quarter Back has struggled for numbers the last couple of weeks, but Romo should be able to torch a Secondary that is playing a lot of young players and will be missing Harrison Smith.

I don't trust Christian Ponder in this game and I think the coaching staff haven't given him a lot of confidence that they believe in him. With Dallas well aware of the importance of winning this game ahead of two tough road games, I am going to back the Cowboys for a small stake.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: I wasn't the only person disappointed with the lack of intensity that Seattle showed on Monday Night against St Louis and the conspiracy theorists have had a field day in discussing why they didn't seem to be that interested in that game.

Pete Carroll won't care about spreads and all of that, but he will care that his team did win and will look to put some pressure on San Francisco by extending the lead in the NFC West while their rivals are on a bye week.

The absence of Sidney Rice does hurt his Offense, but home field is huge for Seattle and it is a big ask for Mike Glennon to make the plays to keep Tampa Bay in the game.

And if you want to talk about a lack of effort, the Buccaneers looked to have given up on Greg Schiano as they were beaten up by the Carolina Panthers and it will be interesting to see how they bounce back in one of the toughest environments in the NFL as a visiting team.

It is a big spread to cover considering how the Seattle Offense has looked the last couple of games and especially in the absence of Sidney Rice. However, Seattle are very strong at home and I can see their Defense forcing Mike Glennon to make a couple of mistakes and use those turnovers to power to a big win. The spread has started dropping to 14 points and I would definitely wait for that hook just as a safety valve.


Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns Pick: This is a huge AFC North game which has a lot of Play Off implications, especially for the Baltimore Ravens who will be expecting to get back to the post-season. A win would give them some momentum ahead of the game with Cincinnati, while they would also own the tie-breaker over Cleveland going forward.

They can't afford to take the Browns lightly as that team is playing far more competitive football than anyone would have expected once they traded away Trent Richardson. Cleveland have also knocked off the Cincinnati Bengals at home this season and they have a legit Defense that matches up well with Baltimore's Offense.

Neither team will have sustained success in this one as far as I am concerned, but Joe Flacco is likely to make the bigger plays compared with Jason Campbell and a healthier Ray Rice could prove pivotal to the game.

John Harbaugh is also very strong coming off a bye and has his team well prepared to win that game and the Ravens have dominated the recent series between these teams. I hate how small the spread is because it looks a big trap, but I will back Baltimore to win and cover here.


Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers Pick: I think the Green Bay Packers Offense is more dangerous than it has ever been since Aaron Rodgers took over as Quarter Back... Well at least since their Super Bowl run.

The year the Packers won the title, it was down to the running of James Starks in the Play Offs that sparked them and I feel the arrival of Eddie Lacy gives them a genuine Running Back that teams have to be aware of. That opens things up for Aaron Rodgers and his array of talent and this is going to be a big ask for the Chicago Bears to slow Green Bay down.

And that means Josh McCown has to find a way to spark an Offense to keep up with a high-scoring team like Green Bay. Personally I just don't think the back up is going to be capable of doing that in this game, especially if Matt Forte is taken away in the manner Green Bay have managed to do in recent games.

Brandon Marshall will likely get his catches, but McCown is going to be under pressure up front and I think it is a big ask for him to try and keep the Bears close with the Packers in this one.

One thing to factor in perhaps is the fact that Aaron Rodgers is 8-2 against the Chicago Bears as the starter for Green Bay... However, he has never beaten them on Monday Night Football where he suffered his 2 defeats against the Bears.

Even with that strange statistic in mind, Green Bay have been too good for Chicago at home and I like them to win this one going away.

MY PICKS: Cincinnati Bengals - 3 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Carolina Panthers - 7 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 3 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Seattle Seahawks - 14 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 2 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 10 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 39-28-1, + 13.67 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units