By far and away, Week 7 was the best week of the season for the picks so far with all but one pick being successful. Stunning week, but one that will be almost impossible to match, and the hope is that I am not going to hit a long losing run to make up for that wonderful Week 7.
Week 7 Thoughts
Peyton Manning smashes Brett Favre's Touchdown Passes thrown record: You have to give credit to Peyton Manning for breaking Brett Favre's 508 Touchdown passes thrown record last weekend, although it has to be said the League is vastly different from the one that Favre started in.
Manning still deserves a lot of credit, although I do find it interesting that less people are concerned with how much he throws the ball as they were back in 2007 when Tom Brady and the New England Patriots were doing just that.
There definitely seems to be more leeway given to Manning in that regard, but I do think that has something to do with the fact that Brady has won three Super Bowl rings compared with Manning's one.
One thing that stood out from last week and the win over the San Francisco 49ers was what looked like a cool move by the Receivers to keep the 509 Touchdown ball away from Manning- however, it has since transpired what a control freak Manning is that he actually planned the whole thing on Friday even if it still looks pretty good.
Is the NFC South the worst Division in the NFL? The Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons were both beaten very easily again last week, while the New Orleans Saints somehow blew yet another game in the final two minutes and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were likely beaten by the 'bye' week.
None of the teams in the Division have a winning record and the heavy losses they have taken at various times are embarrassing and I don't think any team coming out of the South is likely to be a contender for the Super Bowl.
I am still convinced the Saints are better than they have shown, although Drew Brees has not played well, but the Falcons, Panthers and Buccaneers have looked nothing but poor.
Could this be the Division that we see a team with a losing record win it? I don't think that'll happen, but it won't surprise me if eight wins is enough to win the South and I wouldn't fancy any of these teams to win a road game in the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs in a season where so many believed potentially three teams could be making the Play Offs from this Division.
The Chicago Bears are on the cusp of imploding:
Another home loss, the third of the season, has left the Chicago Bears looking up at the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North and it seems enough is enough for some players.
Jay Cutler was awful again as his personal turnovers are beginning to kill the Bears and Brandon Marshall decided to effectively call out his Quarter Back, despite saying they are 'brothers'.
Marshall made a point of mentioning all of the playmakers on the Offense except Cutler and said it is 'unacceptable' that the Bears are 3-4.
Shooting themselves in the foot on Offense has made it extremely difficult for a Defense that has struggled to get teams off the field anyway. I can understand Marshall's frustrations too with the mistakes Cutler has been making and the Bears are going to do very well to turn this around and force their way back into NFC Play Off contention.
Percy Harvin traded to the New York Jets:
I doubt I was the only person surprised to see Percy Harvin traded from the Seattle Seahawks to the New York Jets last Friday (which screwed one of my Fantasy Football teams) and it was a trade that really did come out of left field.
There weren't any rumblings that Harvin was unhappy in Seattle or that the Seahawks were unhappy with him, but it looks a move that had to be made after some of the stories coming out. Clearly the Seattle Seahawks felt they need to do something to get their season back on track at 3-3, although this move didn't go down all that well with all the rest of the team including Marshawn Lynch who almost decided to pull out from playing in St Louis.
It obviously is a move that Seattle think won't affect them adversely, but the big question is whether Harvin can give the New York Jets a spark.
With Erik Decker and Harvin, Geno Smith won't have a better chance to prove he is the franchise Quarter Back for the Jets future, although at 1-6 it is unlikely to impact their season. I think Harvin can be someone effective in the NFL and I think he will do well at the Jets, but he has to prove his output is worth some of the off field hassle that has followed him from Minnesota to Seattle and will be highlighted in the Big Apple.
Top Ten
1) Denver Broncos (5-1): Peyton Manning broke Brett Favre's record last week, but importantly the Broncos moved to the head of the AFC West ahead of a huge Divisional game against San Diego.
2) Dallas Cowboys (6-1): The Cowboys overcame a 14-7 deficit to beat the New York Giants as DeMarco Murray makes it a new NFL record of 7 straight 100 yard rushing games to open a season.
3) Indianapolis Colts (5-2): Been playing very well and have made a statement the last couple of weeks with comfortable wins over Cincinnati and Baltimore.
4) Green Bay Packers (5-2): R-E-L-A-X... The Packers have looked great since Aaron Rodgers said that after a Week 3 loss to Detroit.
5) Philadelphia Eagles (5-1): Were on a bye last week, but can't drop them much further than this.
6) Arizona Cardinals (5-1): Defensively they still look suspect, but can't argue with the team leading the tough NFC West.
7) New England Patriots (5-2): New England have been playing some good football over the last three weeks, but they were fortunate to hold off the New York Jets in Week 7.
8) Baltimore Ravens (5-2): The Ravens have looked stronger on both sides of the ball and have a chance to put a stamp down on the AFC North this week with a win in Cincinnati.
9) San Diego Chargers (5-2): Feel a little harsh dropping San Diego so far down the list after one loss, but injuries to key Defensive players will be tough to overcome over the next few weeks.
10) Detroit Lions (5-2): Matt Stafford and co head to London and will be hoping that Calvin Johnson is back sooner rather than later, but the Lions still have control of the NFC North even if holding off Green Bay is going to be tough.
Bottom Five
32) Oakland Raiders (0-6): They are now the only team without a win in the NFL and are in prime position to finish with the Number 1 Draft Pick.
31) New York Jets (1-6): Another loss for the Jets means they, along with Oakland, are the only teams that have lost six straight, although New York can bounce out if they can ride the positives of the Percy Harvin trade.
30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5): Despite being in my bottom five at the moment, Tampa Bay can still make some waves in the awful NFC South.
29) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6): The Jaguars had a huge Defensive effort to beat the Cleveland Browns although some poor play-calling from the Browns contributed to their downfall.
28) Minnesota Vikings (2-5): I think the Vikings are doing the right things playing some of their younger playmakers, but that was a heartbreaking loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 7.
Week 8 Picks
After some of the disappointment of Week 6 picks, I couldn't have asked for a better Week 7 as all but one pick came in as a winner and even that one had half a chance except for Larry Donnell's two fumbles for the New York Giants.
I took the points with three underdogs as the New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins and Kansas State Chiefs all covered with the last three of those teams actually winning outright.
Green Bay, Baltimore, Indianapolis and Arizona all did the business as favourites and Week 7 is going to be very difficult to match for the rest of the season if I am being honest. I would love to say that will be the norm, but I think even the most professional player in Vegas would be over the moon with a 8-1 record in one week and my bigger concern is not to pat myself on the back, but to try and remain vigilant and avoid a big setback.
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos Pick: I have dropped the San Diego Chargers in my 'top ten' rankings after their loss last week to the Kansas City Chiefs and the fact their two starting Corner Backs are likely to be missing this game. It is no surprise that the public are pounding the Denver Broncos to the point that this spread has increased by two points, especially after Peyton Manning garnered all the headlines last week.
Manning should be able to have another strong showing, but San Diego have found a decent pattern to make them competitive against Denver in the last fourteen months, including a win in Colorado last season. Philip Rivers is playing at a very high level and he will likely use the clock for as much as possible to limit what Manning is able to do as he did last season.
Rivers will make the quick short passes to keep the chains moving as well as sustaining drives, something that San Diego did very well when beating the Seattle Seahawks earlier this season, and that could see Manning left on the sidelines. Denver do get more pressure up front than last season, but Rivers can use Brandon Oliver coming out of the backfield as well as a decent set of Receivers that should be able to win their battles against the Denver Secondary.
The difficulty will be stopping Manning from having his way throwing the ball against a Defense that hasn't got a lot of pressure up front and is missing Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett. Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker are too many weapons for the Chargers to deal with, especially if Ronnie Hillman continues to shine from Running Back.
However, I think the Chargers have been looking forward to this game and thus overlooked Kansas City in Week 7. They covered twice here as the underdog last season and I think Rivers and the Offense can sustain long drives that helps them keep this close, even if I think the Broncos will eventually prove too good and win.
Atlanta Falcons v Detroit Lions Pick: This is a game that is going to be played a strange time for fans in the United States with the early local time meaning the game is going to kick off at 9:30am Eastern Time and I am going to be interested to see how many fans get up that early to watch the game.
Both the Atlanta Falcons and the Detroit Lions are here on a 'business trip' and are trying to focus on a NFC game that could have serious Play Off implications when the season comes down to Week 17.
Calvin Johnson's return for the Lions will be a real boost for Matt Stafford and the Detroit Offense which has still played pretty well in his absence. With a new found trust in Golden Tate, Stafford has more options to throw to with the return of Megatron and the lack of pressure that Atlanta have generated means Detroit should move the ball effectively for much of the contest.
The problem will be for Atlanta to keep up considering how well the Detroit front seven have played and they should spend a long time in the backfield either feasting on Matt Ryan or the Running Back. Detroit have shut down teams this season on the ground by holding them to 3.3 yards per carry and keeping Ryan in third and long is going to play havoc on this inexperienced and banged up Offensive Line that the Falcons will be fielding.
The line looks about right as Detroit would have been a decent pick at - 6.5 points at home and I do think the Lions are the better team. If Calvin Johnson is active, it will just strengthen my belief in Detroit and I like them to win this by a Touchdown thanks to a couple of key sacks and turnovers giving them the edge.
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans Pick: Both of these teams have hit a real slump in form with Houston losing 3 in a row and Tennessee losing 5 of their last 6 games and you have to think the loser is going to be out of Play Off contention at the half way mark.
The Texans couldn't get out of their own way on Monday Night Football as they were beaten in Pittsburgh, but they should have won that game and probably would have if they hadn't imploded in the last three minutes of the first half.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has a strong running game to rely upon and that could give him a real chance of leading a win in the Stadium where he was playing his home games last season. He has to avoid the mistakes that has seen him lose starting Quarter Back spots through his career, but he should be the more successful Quarter Back on show on Sunday.
I love the Zach Mettenberger pick from Tennessee and I think he has the arm to be an effective player in the League, but this is a bad game to come into as far as I am concerned. Mettenberger's biggest problem is his movement in the pocket and Houston will have Jadaveon Clowney back who will cause havoc along with Brian Cushing and JJ Watt.
The Texans should get effective pressure on Mettenberger, but the rookie Quarter Back will have success if his Running Backs can establish the ground game. They have a chance to do that against Houston, but I can imagine the Texans daring Mettenberger to throw against them and forcing a couple of rookie mistakes to win this game.
Tennessee are just 2-6-1 against the spread as the home underdog in their last 9 occasions in that spot and they are just 1-5-1 against the spread as the underdog of 3 points or less. They have played three tight games, but I think the Houston Texans are a little under-rated to win here considering their recent performances when mistakes have cost them wins more than their actual play.
The game is stuck at a field goal spread, but I still like Houston to come through and win this game and cover.
Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers Pick: They say winning supersedes all issues and that might be the reason we haven't heard a peep out of the Seattle dressing room until the last couple of weeks. The trade of Percy Harvin seems to have been the spark that has split the camp in two, but Seattle can put all that to bed as their rivals San Francisco have by getting back to winning ways.
Seattle haven't lost three in a row in three seasons and Russell Wilson is unfamiliar territory in the professional League in losing two in a row after the Special Teams bumbles a week ago in St Louis.
My feeling is that Seattle will be a lot more settled this week now that the Harvin trade has really become the norm for the dressing room and I think they are going to be able to pound the Carolina Panthers on the ground. With both Wilson and Marshawn Lynch likely to have big rushing numbers, it should open up the field for the Quarter Back to throw the ball and become the latest team to score plenty of points against this Panthers Defense.
Wilson should be well protected for the most part, especially with his ability to scramble and make plays on the run, and it will be up to Cam Newton and the Panthers to try and keep up.
That won't be easy against Seattle who have excelled against the run, even though they are missing influential Bobby Wagner at Linebacker, and Jonathan Stewart may have a tough outing in relief of De'Angelo Williams.
Newton should have some success moving the chains with his legs, but he has struggled to pass the ball effectively and the Legion of Boom looks healthier this week. Kelvin Benjamin is a big target, but the rookie is a little banged up and it will be tough for Carolina who have scored just 19 points in their last 2 games against Seattle over the last two seasons.
Carolina may also be looking ahead to a huge NFC South game against the New Orleans Saints on Thursday Night Football- while Seattle could be a potential Wild Card rival in the NFC, the NFC South Division looks there for the taking and the Panthers know knocking off a Divisional rival is a much bigger game for them.
The Seahawks are 6-3 against the spread coming off a loss with Russell Wilson at Quarter Back, while that number is 15-9-1 since Pete Carroll arrived as Head Coach. I like Seattle to win this one by at least a Touchdown even though they are not as good on the road as they are at home.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: With the news that AJ Green is likely to sit for the Bengals once again, it is going to be a tough day for Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals Offense against the Baltimore Ravens Defense.
Without Green, Baltimore should have an 'easier' time locking down the passing game and the Bengals are going to struggle as they cannot rely upon Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill to make big gains on the ground. The Ravens should be able to contain them to the point of forcing Dalton to make the plays with his arm and he doesn't have the consistent threat at Receiver to worry Baltimore.
Additionally, Baltimore have found an effective pass rush of late and Indianapolis showed what you can do against this Cincinnati Offensive Line last week.
On the other hand, Baltimore are just about clicking perfectly on Offense and I am not sure how the Bengals Defense is going to slow them down considering how they have been playing over the last three weeks. Justin Forsett should set up Baltimore in short yardage situations and that will only make life simple for Joe Flacco with a lack of pressure in his face and with the Smith Receivers both playing well.
It is a revenge game for the Ravens who were beaten in Week 1 by Cincinnati and it is vital for them to square this series with the Divisional rival. I like the Ravens to be able to do that and surprise the Bengals at home despite their strong record here.
Chicago Bears @ New England Patriots Pick: This non-Conference game looks to be much more important for the Chicago Bears as they would love to go into their bye week still in touch with the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions in the NFC North. On the other hand, the New England Patriots are in their rightful place at the top of the AFC East and could potentially be thinking about the game with the Denver Broncos which is next up on deck.
Of course the Patriots have the bonus of an extra couple of days since playing on Thursday Night Football to prepare for this game and that is something that Bill Belichick is likely to make full use of.
However, Belichick and the New England Defense have lost Chandler Jones for the foreseeable future with an injury and that could make life that much easier for Jay Cutler and the Chicago Offensive Line. With Matt Forte likely to find some real running lanes, Cutler should have all tools to bounce back from Week 7 when he was essentially called out by Brandon Marshall for the errors the Offense have been making.
I can see the Bears moving the chains pretty effectively in this game, but the same can be said for New England even though their running game will be less of an issue for the Bears Defense to worry about. Tom Brady will still be able to make his big plays throwing the ball as the Chicago Secondary has been banged up and New England should win those battles.
I just can't shake the fact that the Bears should have a lot of success moving the ball too and that makes the almost Touchdown amount of points look a huge advantage. This game comes for the Patriots after two Divisional games and before the big game against Denver so blowing out a non-Conference opponent can't be high on the list of priorities, while the Bears should really have a big Offensive game against this Defense with the playmakers on that side of the ball.
The points look like they have to be taken this week with the Bears.
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: This is a big number considering Indianapolis are on the road, but I still like them to cover against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that rode their luck to beat the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football.
The Steelers Defense struggled in the first 27 minutes of that game to get off the field and they are playing a Colts team that have looked in sync over the last five weeks while riding their 5 game winning run. There is little pressure being found by Pittsburgh and giving Andrew Luck time to throw the ball is not likely to end well that often for the Steelers in this game.
Ahmad Bradshaw should also be able to run the ball effectively and it looks a big ask for Pittsburgh to slow down the Colts when they have the ball barring mistakes Indianapolis make themselves.
Ben Roethlisberger is unlikely to see a cleaner pocket than Luck in this one as his Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection, while the Colts have definitely made up for the absence of Robert Mathis. The Steelers may be able to establish something of a run game, but Roethlisberger will find it tough to throw down the field as the time just simply won't be there for him.
Those loss of yard plays will make the difference in the game and allow the Colts to take command and I expect they will win this by a Touchdown with the way the Offense has been playing.
Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: This is one of the best home field advantages in the NFL and will always give the New Orleans Saints a real chance, but I am not sure if they are playing well enough to deal with the Green Bay Packers right now.
Jimmy Graham is banged up and Drew Brees is certainly not playing at the level expected, while the Defense has been an abomination just a season after being one of the better units in the NFL. Now they have to go against a purring Green Bay Offense led by Aaron Rodgers in what looked like being a marquee game in Week 8, but is now as much about the Saints surviving and almost a 'must win' for them.
The Saints have blown at least three games they should have won this season, but the Defense has let them down and there have been far too many mistakes from the Offense. Aaron Rodgers should have his way with the limited pressure that the Saints have found up front and he should be able to make big plays to Jordy Nelson, Davonte Adams and Randall Cobb and I think the Packers are capable of scoring plenty of points here.
Drew Brees should have some success too but a limited Jimmy Graham hurts this Offense, although Mark Ingram and Khyri Robinson should pick up large gains on the ground and keep Brees in third and short situations. The Packers have found some pressure up front, but the Saints should be able to throw the ball although they have to be careful of the Interceptions that have plagued Brees. The Packers Secondary is capable of making those big plays too and giving Rodgers extra possessions won't be a good idea for the Saints.
New Orleans also have a big game on deck on Thursday Night Football which could determine whether they are a threat in the NFC South or not and favourites heading into a short week have struggled at times. With the way Aaron Rodgers has been playing, I think he is in a strong spot as the underdog and I like the Packers in this one.
Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Recent history has shown the Dallas Cowboys to not be the best team to back to cover a big spread as a home favourite, while the Washington Redskins are 7-1 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series. However, the one failure came here at Cowboys Stadium last season and I do like Dallas to beat a Divisional rival while covering the spread in this one.
It was a big week for Colt McCoy last weekend as he came into the game against the Tennessee Titans and led the Redskins to the win, while he should be excited to be coming back to Texas to play. However, the Cowboys Defense has stepped up in recent games and they should be able to make enough plays to force the Washington Offense off the field particularly if Alfred Morris can't get things going.
It will be much tougher for the Washington Defense to do the same against a Dallas team that have pounded the ball very effectively and then followed that up with big plays from Tony Romo to Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams or Jason Witten. DeMarco Murray will keep Washington honest and open the passing game up for Romo and this Offensive Line has shown it can open holes against the tightest of run Defenses.
Personally I don't have a lot of faith in McCoy being the Quarter Back that can revive Washington and I think Dallas will be too strong for them. The Redskins haven't passed 20 points in their last 4 games and I think Dallas will do enough to hold them down and pull away with the win.
0 Unit Picks: Kansas City Chiefs - 7 Points, Minnesota Vikings + 2.5 Points, Miami Dolphins - 6.5 Points, Buffalo Bills + 3 Points, Arizona Cardinals - 1 Point, Oakland Raiders + 6.5 Points
MY PICKS: San Diego Chargers + 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Houston Texans - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 2 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 6 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 9 Points @ 1.92 Bookmaker.EU (2 Units)
Week 7: 8-1, + 11.20 Units
Week 6: 2-3-1, - 2.46 Units
Week 5: 3-4-1, + 0.84 Units
Week 4: 4-4, + 0.02 Units
Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units
Season 2014: 33-23-2, + 17.74 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
