After what has felt a long wait to bring back Premier League Football, fans all over the country had to be excited about the potential of the season ahead after seeing some of the football played on the opening weekend.
Only Chelsea disappointed out of the leading contenders for the Premier League title, while there is a renewed optimism about being a Manchester United going into the season which will only have increased after the impressive dismantling of West Ham United.
I wrote a short piece about Manchester United and the new season before the weekend and that can be read here.
About the only thing that bothers me about the beginning of the season is the awfully early international break which comes at the end of this month which means a break between Sunday 27th August and Saturday 9th September. Before that we will see the draw for the Champions League/Europa League Group Stage and also the Third Round of the League Cup in England which means the fixture list begins to be filled up going through to the Christmas period.
At least in England we get three rounds of top flight football before the international break, which is far better than Germany, Italy and Spain whose top Divisions begin this weekend and only have the two rounds of games.
It was a mixed bag of results from the weekend football which produced a slight profit, although August has yet to really get going. This midweek we have the First Legs of the Champions League and Europa League Play Off Round ties to be played before we go into the weekend and more Premier League and top flight football.
In this thread I will have picks from the Champions League and Europa League Play Off Round ties which are played from Tuesday through Thursday night.
Hoffenheim v Liverpool Pick: Getting into the Champions League Group Stage is where the financial reward of this competition is really met and next season finishing 4th in the Premier League or Bundesliga will mean direct entry into the Group. That doesn't help either Hoffenheim or Liverpool going into the 2017/18 Champions League as they have to negotiate this Play Off Round if they want to get into the Group Stage which begins next month.
The two Legs over the next week are vital for both clubs although the pressure is likely to be on Liverpool with the past European history they hold. For Hoffenheim this is a maiden European adventure and they will be hoping to build on what was a stunning Bundesliga campaign.
The home Leg is likely to be critical for Hoffenheim having been unbeaten here in the League last season and beating the likes of Bayern Munich in the process. Losing a couple of key players in Niklas Sule and Sebastian Rudy is going to be difficult for Hoffenheim to replace and they are facing someone who will be familiar in their style when Jurgen Klopp brings Liverpool to town.
It is an important First Leg for Liverpool too who have not been at their best in recent away European ties. Things have been much different at Anfield and Liverpool have to come here looking for at least an away goal and making sure they have a slight edge when returning home next week.
It would be a surprise if Liverpool are not able to create chances with the pace they have in the final third and the likely space they are going to see in the away Leg. Liverpool should have a chance to play counter attacking football, although there will be a concern with how they have defended at Vicarage Road on Saturday.
Goals look to be the outcome of this one and I would be a little surprised if there aren't at least three shared out by these two teams. I considered backing Hoffenheim with the start on the Asian Handicap, but the loss of Sule and Rudy means I am less sure about them. However they will have to attack at home and will likely create chances against a Liverpool defence that still needs some work, while the Liverpool pace in the final third is a threat to any club they face.
The layers are of the same mind, but I will back at least three goals to be shared out in this First Leg.
Sporting Lisbon v Steaua Bucharest Pick: After some of the recent defeats Steaua Bucharest have had at this stage of the Champions League, you can understand why Sporting Lisbon are considered such strong favourites to win this Play Off Round tie. Being at home in the First Leg gives Sporting Lisbon the chance to put themselves in a strong position ahead of the trip to Romania next week, but Steaua Bucharest will think their recent experiences in the Qualifiers can help them achieve the upset.
It is asking a lot from Steaua Bucharest, but they have shown some attacking intent when playing away from home in Europe. Earning an away goal here will give Steaua Bucharest a chance in the Second Leg, but the majority of the play is going to come from Sporting Lisbon.
Anything other than a Sporting Lisbon win will be a real surprise, but the Asian Handicap might be a tough one for them to cover. Sporting Lisbon have had 1 clean sheet from their last 8 home European ties although the majority of those games have come against teams that were considered stronger than Steaua Bucharest.
Even with that in mind, Sporting Lisbon may offer Steaua Bucharest some chances in this one, although the home team should have enough in the final third to score the goals to win this one. This is a team that has scored plenty of goals in home European ties against teams outside of the European elite in recent years and I am looking for this Champions League Play Off tie to also produce at least three goals on the night.
Both teams scoring is not of the question in this one, but there is always the possibility that Sporting Lisbon dominate the tie completely and overall it feels like a fixture that will produce at least three goals.
Celtic v Astana Pick: There will be familiarity with this Play Off Round tie in the Champions League having paired Celtic and Astana together twelve months ago in the Third Qualifying Round. On that occasion the Second Leg was played here at Celtic Park, but this time around the teams will meet in Kazakhstan in the Second Leg which does change some of the dynamics of the tie.
It is a big tie for both Celtic and Astana having dominated their domestic League and knowing the financial rewards that come with a place in the Champions League Group Stage. That increases the pressure on both teams and I imagine this is going to be a tight tie over the next two weeks with both Celtic and Astana confident in their chances to progress.
The injuries in the Celtic team have to be a concern when you think how close this tie was twelve months ago. It took an injury time penalty for Celtic to come through 3-2 on aggregate although the players may come in with more confidence than they did back then having played so well in the last twelve months.
Celtic have been very good in home Qualifiers having won 7 in a row before the home draw with Rosenborg in the Third Qualifying Round. They didn't play well in that game, but Celtic have Leigh Griffiths back in contention which should give them better balance going forward.
You have to respect Astana who are going to be playing in the Group Stage of a European competition for the third season in a row which is unprecedented for a side from Kazakhstan. Everything for them depends on the First Leg as they have lost 5 of their last 7 away European ties but at the same time have won 3 of 7 at home against those same teams.
Keeping it tight may be the play for Astana and I imagine they will be looking to frustrate Celtic. They should have some chances considering the injuries Celtic have at the heart of their defence, but I do think Celtic will have the majority of the play on the day and have shown they can pick up some real momentum when playing at home.
It may be a risk when you think how close it was when they played last season, but this time I am looking for Celtic to have enough to win by a couple of goals to put themselves in a strong position ahead of next week. I will back the Scottish Champions to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Maribor Pick: This is a huge Play Off Round tie for both Hapoel Be'er Sheva and Maribor with the carrot of entering the Champions League Group Stage in front of them. Both teams will be going into a section with some huge names from European Football and the chance to host those names will only increase the pressure on the teams in the two ties to be played over the next seven days.
The home Leg is likely to be very important for both teams and I do give Hapoel Be'er Sheva the edge in the First Leg. They have won all 5 home Champions League Qualifiers played over the last thirteen months and the experience of reaching the Europa League Knock Out Round last season will surely help.
By the same token Hapoel Be'er Sheva have not been very good when playing away from home and so they have to have a lead to take to Maribor next week. Maribor have to be given their dues having won both away Champions League Qualifiers this season but they had lost 4 of 7 away European ties prior to this campaign.
The heavy losses at Astana and Qabala have to be a concern though and Hapoel Be'er Sheva have shown they are capable of winning home ties with some comfort. Both Celtic and Ludogorets Razgrad are experienced European teams who have lost by a couple of goals here over the last twelve months and I do think Hapoel Be'er Sheva will win this one.
Backing them to find a way to win by a couple of goals on the day at odds against looks the way to go. Maribor's last 4 away European losses have come by at least two goals each time and I think Hapoel Be'er Sheva will have the majority of the play in this First Leg and create the majority of chances.
Maribor will be looking to be in the tie when the Second Leg is played at their own home next week, but I will look for Hapoel Be'er Sheva to take a big step towards a first appearance in the Champions League Group Stage.
Napoli v Nice Pick: Both Napoli and Nice would have been hoping for an 'easier' Play Off Round tie in the Champions League than the one they have been handed. It is the Italian side who will go into the tie as the favourites to reach the Group Stage, but Nice showed last season that they are able to keep up with the likes of Monaco and Paris Saint-Germain domestically.
However they have made a relatively poor start to the 2017/18 season with no wins from their first 4 games in all competitions and needing a late equaliser in Amsterdam to get the better of Ajax. Back to back defeats to open the League campaign will have dented confidence, although Nice have to hope they can catch Napoli cold in their first game of the new campaign.
That may be a big ask considering how Napoli have kept their squad together this season compared with the last summer transfer window. A squad that knows exactly what is required of them could go very far in Serie A this season and Napoli are filled with goals which will make them dangerous to teams in the Champions League.
Better defensive performances are still required from Napoli if they are going to compete with the very best clubs, but this is a team who will be very good this year. Being at home in the First Leg should give Napoli enough of an advantage to build a lead in this tie before heading to the south of France next week.
With the goals they have in the squad and Nice's early season struggles, I think Nice will be looking to stay in the tie for as long as possible. However they were beaten comfortably in Schalke and Krasnodar away from home last season and I think Napoli will prove too good on the day.
It is a risk backing a team to win with a margin when playing their first game of the season, but I think Napoli have enough goals to have a healthy lead before the Second Leg and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap.
Milan v Shkendija Pick: When I was growing up, the standard setters for the top European clubs came from Italy and the leading team were Milan who won five of their seven European Cups between 1989 and 2007. It is quite strange to see Milan in the Europa League rather than the Champions League and even stranger to think they have not played in Europe at all over the last four years.
Things look to have changed for Milan with new investment in the club which has seen them sign some quality players and be linked with a number more before this transfer window closes. They have improved their League position three years in a row in Italy but it still may take some time to really see Milan restore their name alongside the very best in European Football.
Getting into the Champions League is the goal for the season for Milan, but they won't want to drop the Europa League at this stage of the campaign. Milan were comfortable winners in the Third Qualifying Round and they are big favourites to beat Shkendija in the Play Off Round for a place in the Europa League Group Stage.
Shkendija have won three Qualifying ties in a row for the second season in a row having previously lost all four Qualifying ties in European competition. The step up in class in this Play Off Round is going to be tough to bridge for Shkendija and I think Milan are likely going to win comfortably with a few more of their bigger signings likely to earn a start ahead of the Serie A season beginning.
Covering the Asian Handicap is likely to happen for Milan, but I think the key will be to ensure they don't offer up an away goal and backing the Italian giants to win with a clean sheet is the call.
Ajax v Rosenborg Pick: Both Ajax and Rosenborg will have been hugely disappointed to go out of the Champions League in the Third Qualifying Round but have a chance to make it into the Europa League Group Stage.
Ajax reached the Europa League Final last season so will be hoping for another deep run in the tournament, although they have lost some key players from that squad that reached Stockholm. Home form is going to be critical for Ajax who won all 7 home Europa League games last season, but whose 2-2 draw at the Amsterdam Arena against Nice meant they were beaten on away goals in the Champions League Third Qualifying Round.
There will be confidence in the Ajax ranks that they can win this First Leg at home, especially when you think how difficult things have been for Rosenborg in recent away European ties. Rosenborg were unbeaten in draws at Dundalk and Celtic in the Champions League this season, but previously they had lost 5 away games in a row and that has to be a concern.
You can understand why Ajax are such strong favourites in the First Leg, but this is a team that is going to be missing Davinson Sanchez and may be a little vulnerable defensively. However Ajax will also believe they have the attacking talent to take the game to Rosenborg and this could be one of the higher scoring games in the First Legs of the Europa League Play Off Round.
I do think Rosenborg can play their part too and I will back at least three goals to be shared out by the teams on Thursday.
Osijek v Austria Vienna Pick: You have to imagine both Osijek and Austria Vienna are looking at this tie as a good one in their bid to get into the Europa League Group Stage. Anything other than a close one that is decided next week in Vienna would be a real surprise.
The home Leg is going to be important for both teams and I do think Osijek can force a narrow advantage even if they have to work hard to get it. Playing at home has been important for them so far in the Europa League with 3 straight wins here, including one over PSV Eindhoven, but Osijek may have to raise their game again to get the better of Austria Vienna.
I have to respect the fact that Austria Vienna have won 5 of their last 7 away European ties over the last fourteen months which includes in all 4 Qualifying ties they have played in that time. They have even overcome poor home Legs in that time by winning in Spartak Trnava and AEL Limassol after failing to do that in the home First Leg, while last season 4 of their 5 Group Stage points came on their travels.
That makes Austria Vienna a dangerous team to face for Osijek who are not blessed with a lot of European experience. However the wins over PSV Eindhoven both home and away shows a team that is confident in their own chances and I think Osijek can continue the fine form they have been displaying at the start of the 2017/18 season.
It won't come easy, but Osijek to hold a narrow lead when travelling to the Austrian capital next week is my pick.
Partizan Belgrade v Videoton Pick: It can be difficult for teams to accept that they are not able to match others in Europe despite being one of the best in their domestic League. That is what Partizan Belgrade have had to face in the Champions League, but the Serbia Champions will be favoured to get past Videoton in this Play Off Round Qualifier.
The First Leg in Belgrade is going to be very important for Partizan Belgrade and they did have a long winning run at home snapped in the Champions League by Olympiacos. However the bigger worry may have been the League defeat here by Vozdovac, while they are facing a Videoton team who have gotten the better of Bordeaux in the Europa League already.
Videoton have been one of the better teams in Hungary in recent seasons but they have not worked their way through the Qualifiers to get into the Europa League Group Stage for some time. The win over Bordeaux will give them confidence and the key for Videoton is to still be in the tie when heading back home for the Second Leg next week.
They should be able to do that, although I do think they may be faced with a narrow deficit after the First Leg. Partizan Belgrade tend to play their best football at home and I will be looking for them to find enough in the final third to have a lead in the Second Leg, although Videoton may eventually show a little more to go through to the Group Stage.
Everton v Hajduk Split Pick: At this stage of the season this is far from an easy tie for Everton despite being big favourites to see of Hajduk Split. The new arrivals will take time to gel into a team and Ronald Koeman has previous in failing to get into the Europa League Group Stage when falling short with Southampton.
However Everton are facing a team in Hajduk Split who have found the Play Off Round a little too good for them in each of the last three seasons. They have won plenty of Qualifiers in that time, but dropping out in this Round shows there may be a ceiling as to how strong Hajduk Split can be.
I do think they can make life difficult for an Everton team who have yet to find the fluency they would have liked in the final third. However Everton have also looked decent in defensive positions and will be looking for a fourth straight clean sheet to open the season which will put them in a strong position for the Second Leg in Croatia next week.
Ideally Everton would win this by a couple of goals, but Koeman is still looking to bring in reinforcements in the final third which can make up for the loss of Romelu Lukaku.
Instead Koeman may take a pragmatic approach to the First Leg and ensure Everton at least have a clean sheet which would put them in a strong position for the Second Leg. Having a narrow lead will mean Everton improve their position too and I think that is what they will ultimately have to settle for so I will back Everton to win this one with a clean sheet.
MY PICKS: Hoffenheim-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sporting Lisbon-Steaua Bucharest Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Celtic - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Hapoel Be'er Sheva - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.09 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Napoli - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Milan Win to Nil @ 1.61 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ajax-Rosenborg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Osijek @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Partizan Belgrade @ 1.86 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Everton Win to Nil @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
August 2017/18 Update: 8-10-1, - 0.72 Units (25 Units Staked, - 2.88% Yield)
Showing posts with label Play Off Round Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Play Off Round Picks. Show all posts
Tuesday, 15 August 2017
Tuesday, 16 August 2016
Midweek Football Picks 2016 (August 16-18)
After the first three picks of the 2016/17 season fell short of the mark, I was wondering if I was about to suffer the beginning of another awful August to continue the trend of recent seasons.
However the last three picks bounced back to close those losses and now we move onto a loaded midweek schedule filled with Champions League and Europa League Play Off Round First Legs as well as the third round of games in the lower Leagues in England.
This weekend will see the opening of the Spanish Primera Division and Italian Serie A as the new season really start picking up steam, although that momentum is snapped early in September when the World Cup Qualifiers means there is a two week break from August 28th until September 10th.
You might have noticed the new 'Featured Post' I have set up on the blog's main page which will prevent some of these picks falling too far down once the tennis picks are being played on a daily basis. I will mainly use the 'Featured Post' to feature the Weekend Football Picks as well as the College Football and NFL Picks which will be made from the beginning of September as those threads usually cover a few days and can easily slip down the page.
It is a big week for the likes of Manchester City and Celtic who are trying to earn a place in the Champions League Group Stage, while West Ham United have a chance of earning revenge against Astra who knocked them out of the Europa League last season.
I would also guess Rafa Benitez is facing a big week at Newcastle United who have made a poor start to life in the Championship and then we will move onto the Premier League games which will begin on Friday this week for the first time this season.
Hopefully the picks can move forward effectively after the last three came in as winners and get this August off to an unusually good start.
Ajax v Rostov Pick: The Champions League Play Off Round will be played over the next nine days as teams bid to get into the Group Stage alongside some of the biggest names in European football. Both Ajax and Rostov have to be happy with the draw that will see them play each other twice for one of those places and we could see two competitive matches between them.
The layers are less sure with Ajax coming into the First Leg as a healthy favourite to take an advantage to Russia next week. They do look short when you consider the last 4 home European games have seen Ajax draw with Celtic, Fenerbahce, Molde and PAOK in the last Round, while Ajax were also beaten 2-3 by Rapid Vienna in the Third Qualifying Round of the Champions League last season.
Ajax certainly have the edge in terms of European experience and they have played in the Champions League Group Stage just two seasons ago, while Rostov are only in one of the big two European competitions for the second time in their history. However their 0-2 win at Anderlecht in the Third Qualifying Round Second Leg was a huge result for Rostov and they have continued to perform effectively despite some financial issues they have been suffering over the last twelve months.
You have to think Rostov will look to be tough to beat and catch Ajax on the counter attack to give themselves a chance in the Second Leg next week at home. They should be able to make life difficult for Ajax who have struggled under the weight of expectation at home in recent European games and that might be the case on Tuesday as the fans will expect them to win this one.
Rostov showed in Zenit St Petersburg that they are capable and scoring twice there and in Anderlecht makes them a dangerous opponent. Ajax have won just 5 of their last 12 home games in the Champions League and only 2 of those have come by more than a single goal margin and I think backing Rostov on the Asian Handicap could be the play this week.
Even a one goal defeat for Rostov would return half of the stakes and Ajax's run of games without a win at home in European competition can't be ignored, while they have also drawn 4 of their last 6 home games in all competitions.
Steaua Bucharest v Manchester City Pick: There were many other potential opponents in the Champions League Play Off that might have given Manchester City a real problem over two Legs, but they will be happy they have been set up with Steaua Bucharest. The Romanian side have been talking up their chances of earning the upset after a really positive start to the new season, and they might have half a chance if Manchester City are still trying to find their feet under Pep Guardiola's guidance.
The win over Sunderland was not Manchester City at their best while the full backs are being asked to fulfil different roles when the team have the ball as they are almost making it five players across the centre of midfield. Overloading those areas is fair enough but Guardiola was asking Gael Clichy and Bacary Sagna to play a lot of creative passes which is clearly not their strength.
I can imagine his tactics will take some time getting used to, but Manchester City can't afford to start too slowly with this Play Off tie huge for them. Going out of the Champions League before the Group Stage would be a massive blow, but you have to think there is too much quality in the squad to actually fall to an upset over two Legs.
The first game in Romania will be tough as Steaua Bucharest are in fine form and beat Sparta Prague 2-0 here in the last Round, an impressive result when thinking Sparta Prague reached the Quarter Final of the Europa League in April. However Steaua Bucharest did not play that well here last season when faced with the increased quality in Europe compared with their domestic League and the side lost to both Trencin and Rosenborg while drawing with Partizan Belgrade in front of their own fans.
None of those three teams would be favourites to beat Manchester City and I do think the English team can show the extra quality they have to wear down Steaua Bucharest. The home team can't afford to play things too tight as they will want to have a lead to take to The Etihad Stadium next week and I think Manchester City will be able to pick them off.
Manchester City might not have the best away record in the Champions League, but they have mainly come against teams that are superior to Steaua Bucharest. In the last three seasons Manchester City have won half of their 14 away games in the Champions League and 4 of those wins have come by more than one goal. They have won 0-3 at Viktoria Plzen, 1-2 at CSKA Moscow and 1-3 at Dynamo Kiev in that time and I will back Manchester City to record a comfortable win in Romania to put one foot into the Group Stage.
Aston Villa v Huddersfield Town Pick: The scoreboard might have suggested Aston Villa had an 'easy' afternoon on Saturday when beating Rotherham United 3-0, but there were some real scares for them in that match especially when only leading 1-0.
It is a big win to boost the confidence, but their visitors will also be heading into this match with plenty of belief as Huddersfield Town secured a very impressive 1-2 win at Newcastle United last time out.
That follows a 2-1 League win over Brentford and all three Huddersfield Town matches so far in the new season have provided at least three goals shared out. While they have looked good going forward, defensively Huddersfield Town can be vulnerable and Aston Villa have shown they can take advantage of any chances that they do create.
This match has all the makings of being a 2-1 scoreline either way as both teams have shown attacking threats mixed with some defensive problems. At odds against, backing at least three goals shared out looks the call.
Leeds United v Fulham Pick: With an owner that has been as trigger happy on the sacking button as Massimo Cellino has been since taking over at Leeds United, Garry Monk has to be feeling the pressure after back to back League losses. Now they have to take on surprise package Fulham at Elland Road where the big crowd comes with plenty of expectations every week which seems to cripple the team from expressing themselves.
I am not sure where I stand on Fulham who have surprised me twice already this season with unexpected wins, but they are not as big outsiders in this one as they have been in their first two League wins.
That will change the mindset and I will be keeping an eye on where Fulham go after this game, but I do think they can contribute to a decent spectacle for the fans on Tuesday.
Leeds United have looked poor defensively, but will be expected to attack at home which should see chances created at both ends. Fulham had 15 of 23 away games see three goals shared out last season and they have already opened with two more in the last week and I think the odds against quotes have to be backed for at least three goals scored in this match.
Norwich City v Bristol City Pick: I am not sure why the Norwich City fans seemed so willing to get on the backs of their players after the goalless draw with Sheffield Wednesday, but Alex Neil showed enough resolve as manager last season to not be overly concerned about that reaction from the supporters.
That game on Saturday was between two teams who will likely challenge for promotion to the Premier League, but Norwich City should have a better chance of recording a win when facing Bristol City. The Robins have made a brilliant start to the new season, but may have benefited from what looks a decent set of fixtures on paper.
Now they are in for a much tougher match than the likes of Wigan Athletic and Burton Albion, two promoted teams from League One, and Bristol City struggled when visiting the best teams in the Championship last season. While they will be more confident having won all 3 games played so far this season, it might be tough to bridge the gap between themselves and a relegated team from the Premier League and I think Norwich City will earn the win to send the fans home happier than they were on Saturday.
Celtic v Hapoel Be'er Sheva Pick: The Champions League is clearly the priority for Celtic at this stage of the season and failing to get to the Group Stage for a third consecutive season would be a big blow to Brendan Rodgers and the club. The last couple of years have seen Celtic lose to Maribor and Malmo in the Play Off Round of the competition after negotiating the earlier Qualifying Rounds, but arguably Hapoel Be'er Sheva are the weakest of the trio they have faced.
Some may even argue that the tie against Astana in the Third Qualifying Round was the more difficult one, but that means increased expectation on the Celtic players. Having the home game first will increase the pressure too as Celtic will feel they need some sort of lead to take to Israel next week, although they can't afford to underestimate Hapoel Be'er Sheva.
The Israeli Champions have shown they can dig in and battle for a result in their goalless draws at Sheriff Tiraspol and Olympiacos in the Champions League already. Like Celtic, Hapoel Be'er Sheva could easily suggest their Third Qualifying Round opponent, Olympiacos, is tougher than the one they see in the Play Off Round, but there is less experience in the Israeli squad compared with Celtic.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva have had two upset wins to get into this Play Off Round, but I can't shift their losses to RNK Split and Thun from my mind and feel they might have overachieved already. They lost the away Leg in both of those Europa League Second Qualifying Round ties and I do think Celtic will have enough quality to find a way to earn a narrow win in this one.
The tie should be far from over for when they recommence battle next week in the Second Leg, but I do expect Celtic to begin that Leg with some sort of lead to defend.
Dundalk v Legia Warsaw Pick: It has been a special run which has taken Dundalk through to the Champions League Play Off Round and the 3-0 win over BATE Borisov in the Third Qualifying Round has to be one of their biggest wins in their history. Beating Legia Warsaw would surpass that and put Dundalk alongside some of the biggest names in European football, and the players have admitted they are going into the match without an 'inferiority complex' weighing them down.
There is a lot to admire about the run Dundalk have had, but I can't help feel they have perhaps been overrated a little in this First Leg. They haven't lost any of their last 3 home games, but Dundalk did have to settle for a 1-1 draw with FH from Iceland and they were comfortably seen off by Hajduk Split in Ireland just a couple of years ago.
Home advantage might not be as strong as normal either with the game being played at the Aviva Stadium due to the demand for tickets. Plenty in the crowd will be there to see Legia Warsaw too and the Polish Champions have come through tougher tests already in the Champions League to make it to the Play Off Round.
Only two years ago Legia Warsaw came to Dublin and beat Irish Champions St Patrick's Athletic 0-5 and while I can't see it being that easy this week, I do think the away side are considerably stronger.
Unlike BATE Borisov, Legia Warsaw have a decent away record in European competition and have won at St Patrick's Athletic and Celtic in recent years. I expect they can make their quality count in this one and the odds against quotes are tempting enough to see Legia Warsaw have any kind of advantage heading to Poland next week.
Porto v Roma Pick: This is arguably the best Play Off Round tie and there isn't a lot to separate Porto and Roma as both teams are desperate to make the Champions League Group Stage. The home advantage and the fact their season has already begun might favour Porto, but Roma aren't far behind when it comes to their fitness as their own domestic campaign begins this weekend.
However Roma haven't always been the best travelling team in Europe and so the key for them might be to head to Portugal and look to grab an away goal even in a narrow defeat to take back to the Italian capital. That would still make Roma favourites to progress, but I really don't think there will be much between the teams over both Legs.
The Porto home form isn't as strong as some of the previous teams have produced and they did end last season with 2 losses from their final 5 games here. While they did beat Chelsea in the Champions League at home, Porto lost their last 2 European home games against Dynamo Kiev and Borussia Dortmund, but they had won 8 of 9 home games in the Champions League before the loss to Dynamo Kiev.
On the other hand, Roma are unbeaten in 10 games in all competitions since their 2-0 loss at Real Madrid in the Champions League Second Round and they did lost 3 of their 4 away games in the Champions League last season. Two of those came against Real Madrid and Barcelona, but it is the defeat at BATE Borisov that was the stand out result for Roma.
Goals weren't a problem in Roma away games last season and they will likely push for an away goal or two in this one. The onus is on Porto to attack too as they look to get a lead to protect for the Second Leg and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in what are normally tight First Leg affairs.
Villarreal v Monaco Pick: Antonio Cordon is the big link between Villarreal and Monaco as he has moved from the former to the latter in the summer. Cordon has been considered a key part of the Villarreal recruitment policy in recent years which has rejuvenated this club and he is expected to do the same for Monaco who are someway of the pace set by Paris Saint-Germain in France.
However it will be events on the pitch that will determine which of these teams makes it through the Play Off Round and into the Champions League Group Stage. Both Villarreal and Monaco might have hoped to avoid one another in this Round and I can see this being a close contest over two Legs.
In both cases I think the home advantage is going to be of real importance and Monaco showed those vulnerabilities on their travels that Villarreal will be looking to exploit. Monaco have not won any of their last 5 away European games and have lost 3 of those including a defeat in Spain to Valencia in the Play Off Round last season.
On the other hand Villarreal have won 7 in a row at home in European competition and have won 11 of their last 13 here. They will be looking to get on the front foot and give themselves some sort of advantage to take into the Second Leg next week and I do think Villarreal can win the First Leg.
Radamel Falcao has scored in the last two Champions League games for Monaco but could potentially be missing for this First Leg which will give Villarreal a boost in confidence. Even though the home team have made some changes to the starting eleven with their transfer dealings over the summer, I think Villarreal can continue their fine home European form and give themselves a narrow advantage to take to Monaco next week for the Second Leg.
Cardiff City v Blackburn Rovers Pick: Both Cardiff City and Blackburn Rovers have made poor starts to the new season but they will both be heading into this fixture feeling they have a good chance to turn around their immediate fortunes.
The edge has to be given to Cardiff City who are hosting this match and who had played well at home for much of last season. Their 0-2 defeat to Queens Park Rangers on Sunday was a surprising loss and Cardiff City have yet to score in 3 games in all competitions this season, but they are facing a porous Blackburn Rovers defence in this one.
Owen Coyle must already be under pressure as Blackburn Rovers manager thanks to seven goals conceded in a couple of League games, but I don't want to rule a line through this team in this match. They did struggle when facing the best teams in the Division away from home last season, and I do think this is going to be a difficult season for Blackburn Rovers, but the lack of goals in the Cardiff City squad to open the season is a concern when backing the home team.
However the odds against quotes for Cardiff City are tempting enough as they should remain tough to play in Wales and I will back them to win this one.
Newcastle United v Reading Pick: Having expected Newcastle United to win in each of the first two games of the League season, it was unexpected that I have been wrong both times as they have surprisingly lost to both Fulham and Huddersfield Town. That makes this game a huge one for Newcastle United and Rafa Benitez especially as The Toon Army could be right on the brink of revolt if they see their side lose another League game already.
Last time in the Championship Newcastle United only lost 4 games all season so falling to a third defeat before the end of the first month would be a huge blow to The Magpies.
Facing Reading means a meeting with another club that are expected to be in the bottom half of the League table, but Newcastle United can't underestimate them after falling to Fulham and Huddersfield Town. Reading have at least won a game already this season in the League, but their away record over the last twelve months in the Championship has been disappointing.
I might be a little foolish in backing Newcastle United this week, but they look a decent price to get back on the horse against a team that lost 14 of 23 away games last season and already went down 2-0 at Wolves this past weekend. Failure in this one could easily cost Rafa Benitez his job, but I expect the Spaniard to get it right and help Newcastle United to the three points and ease the pressure on himself.
Astana v BATE Borisov Pick: Both Astana and BATE Borisov have to get over the disappointment of missing out on the Champions League Group Stage having both been playing in that part of the competition last season. Both would have felt they should have beaten Celtic and Dundalk respectively, but the winner of this tie could still face some major European names with the likes of Manchester United and Inter Milan in the Groups of the Europa League.
Home advantage is likely to be key for both clubs over the next week and I think Astana can give themselves an advantage to take to Belarus in the Second Leg.
Astana are unbeaten in 8 home European games and they did win 3 Qualifiers here last season in the Champions League and they did hold the likes of Atletico Madrid and Benfica here. If they had taken their chances Astana would have added Celtic to the list of teams they have beaten here over the last twelve months and they will be hard to stop in front of their own fans.
On the other hand BATE Borisov have failed to win any of their last 18 away European games and have lost 12 of those games. Defeats in Debrecen, Partizan Belgrade and Dundalk suggests there is some sort of mental block for BATE Borisov outside of Belarus that they have to resolve and this is a tough place to do that.
This will be a tight tie over two Legs and there isn't a lot between them, but I think Astana can make home advantage count to give them a narrow lead for the Second Leg.
Austria Vienna v Rosenborg Pick: If this Europa League Play Off Round tie is anything like when Austria Vienna met Rosenborg in the 1993/94 Champions League then the neutrals are in for a treat.
Both of those games were high-scoring, attacking and dramatic matches but both Austria Vienna and Rosenborg are much changed teams now.
Austria Vienna are back in European competition after a couple of years of missing out but they have struggled at home, while Rosenborg might feel they should still be trying to get into the Champions League Group Stage after going out thanks to three injury time goals to APOEL in the Third Qualifying Round.
The Rosenborg away games in recent European games have tended to be high-scoring as they have shown they can score goals, but also seem to be vulnerable defensively. They had also conceded three times in 3 away games in a row before beating Viking 0-2 last time out, while Austria Vienna's home games have produced nine goals in the last couple of games.
I do think both teams will give this First Leg a go and I am looking for goals to be shared out by the two sides. A gut feeling says Rosenborg snap their recent run of 4 consecutive away defeats in Europe to give themselves a platform to move into the Europa League Group Stage, but I can't see them keeping a clean sheet in this one either.
Astra v West Ham United Pick: There looks to be a clear shift in how Slaven Bilic views the Europa League this season compared with the attitude last season and so a stronger West Ham United team are expected to take on Astra this time around. Last season a much changed team took the lead in Romania but were eventually beaten 2-1 and a stronger starting line up is expected in this one.
However West Ham United have not been at their best away from home in recent games compared with how well they began last season in the Premier League. The defeat at Chelsea saw a flat performance from The Hammers, but they are not expected to make wholesale changes as they did when they visited Astra last season.
It also has to be said that Astra's recent form is not the most impressive and they have already been disappointed with an early Champions League exit. However they have saved their best performances in European competition for their home games and Astra are unbeaten in 6 home games in Europe which makes odds on quotes for a West Ham United win look short enough.
Add in the fact that West Ham United have lost their last 3 away games in Europe as well as their last 3 away games overall and you have to have the feeling that Slaven Bilic would take a draw to finish the job at home next week. Last season only a James Collins sending off turned the home tie with West Ham United 2-0 up and they will believe they can win at home as long as they don't have a big deficit to overcome.
I do expect a strong West Ham United team to take to the field in this one. Even with that in mind, I think they look short in a match they would be happy to take a draw and I am happy to back Astra on the Asian Handicap where a one goal loss would return half the stakes.
Trencin v Rapid Vienna Pick: The poor home form in European football has cost Trencin their place in the Group Stage of either the Champions League or Europa League in recent seasons. Trencin have had some good results too, but winning over two Legs is a tough proposition, while the side have made a poor start to the new season both domestically and in Europe.
While they are dropping from the Champions League into the Europa League, Rapid Vienna are still the favourites to come through this tie over two Legs. In fact the Austrian side are favourites to win the First Leg and I think they can be backed at odds against.
Rapid Vienna won away games at Ajax, Viktoria Plzen and Dinamo Minsk last season and also drew with Shakhtar Donetsk which shows they are more than capable of matching the wins Legia Warsaw, NK Olimpija and Steaua Bucharest have recorded here over the last twelve months.
The 1-4 win at Austria Vienna would only have improved the confidence for Rapid Vienna while Trencin have had a poor start at home this season with 3 losses in 4 games. At odds against the Austrian side can get the better of Trencin and give themselves a strong platform to progress to the Europa League Group Stage and I will back them to do that.
MY PICKS: Rostov + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aston Villa-Huddersfield Town Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Leeds United-Fulham Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Norwich City @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Celtic @ 1.67 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Legia Warsaw @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)
Porto-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Villarreal @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cardiff City @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Newcastle United @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Astana @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)
Austria Vienna-Rosenborg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Astra + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rapid Vienna @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
However the last three picks bounced back to close those losses and now we move onto a loaded midweek schedule filled with Champions League and Europa League Play Off Round First Legs as well as the third round of games in the lower Leagues in England.
This weekend will see the opening of the Spanish Primera Division and Italian Serie A as the new season really start picking up steam, although that momentum is snapped early in September when the World Cup Qualifiers means there is a two week break from August 28th until September 10th.
You might have noticed the new 'Featured Post' I have set up on the blog's main page which will prevent some of these picks falling too far down once the tennis picks are being played on a daily basis. I will mainly use the 'Featured Post' to feature the Weekend Football Picks as well as the College Football and NFL Picks which will be made from the beginning of September as those threads usually cover a few days and can easily slip down the page.
It is a big week for the likes of Manchester City and Celtic who are trying to earn a place in the Champions League Group Stage, while West Ham United have a chance of earning revenge against Astra who knocked them out of the Europa League last season.
I would also guess Rafa Benitez is facing a big week at Newcastle United who have made a poor start to life in the Championship and then we will move onto the Premier League games which will begin on Friday this week for the first time this season.
Hopefully the picks can move forward effectively after the last three came in as winners and get this August off to an unusually good start.
Ajax v Rostov Pick: The Champions League Play Off Round will be played over the next nine days as teams bid to get into the Group Stage alongside some of the biggest names in European football. Both Ajax and Rostov have to be happy with the draw that will see them play each other twice for one of those places and we could see two competitive matches between them.
The layers are less sure with Ajax coming into the First Leg as a healthy favourite to take an advantage to Russia next week. They do look short when you consider the last 4 home European games have seen Ajax draw with Celtic, Fenerbahce, Molde and PAOK in the last Round, while Ajax were also beaten 2-3 by Rapid Vienna in the Third Qualifying Round of the Champions League last season.
Ajax certainly have the edge in terms of European experience and they have played in the Champions League Group Stage just two seasons ago, while Rostov are only in one of the big two European competitions for the second time in their history. However their 0-2 win at Anderlecht in the Third Qualifying Round Second Leg was a huge result for Rostov and they have continued to perform effectively despite some financial issues they have been suffering over the last twelve months.
You have to think Rostov will look to be tough to beat and catch Ajax on the counter attack to give themselves a chance in the Second Leg next week at home. They should be able to make life difficult for Ajax who have struggled under the weight of expectation at home in recent European games and that might be the case on Tuesday as the fans will expect them to win this one.
Rostov showed in Zenit St Petersburg that they are capable and scoring twice there and in Anderlecht makes them a dangerous opponent. Ajax have won just 5 of their last 12 home games in the Champions League and only 2 of those have come by more than a single goal margin and I think backing Rostov on the Asian Handicap could be the play this week.
Even a one goal defeat for Rostov would return half of the stakes and Ajax's run of games without a win at home in European competition can't be ignored, while they have also drawn 4 of their last 6 home games in all competitions.
Steaua Bucharest v Manchester City Pick: There were many other potential opponents in the Champions League Play Off that might have given Manchester City a real problem over two Legs, but they will be happy they have been set up with Steaua Bucharest. The Romanian side have been talking up their chances of earning the upset after a really positive start to the new season, and they might have half a chance if Manchester City are still trying to find their feet under Pep Guardiola's guidance.
The win over Sunderland was not Manchester City at their best while the full backs are being asked to fulfil different roles when the team have the ball as they are almost making it five players across the centre of midfield. Overloading those areas is fair enough but Guardiola was asking Gael Clichy and Bacary Sagna to play a lot of creative passes which is clearly not their strength.
I can imagine his tactics will take some time getting used to, but Manchester City can't afford to start too slowly with this Play Off tie huge for them. Going out of the Champions League before the Group Stage would be a massive blow, but you have to think there is too much quality in the squad to actually fall to an upset over two Legs.
The first game in Romania will be tough as Steaua Bucharest are in fine form and beat Sparta Prague 2-0 here in the last Round, an impressive result when thinking Sparta Prague reached the Quarter Final of the Europa League in April. However Steaua Bucharest did not play that well here last season when faced with the increased quality in Europe compared with their domestic League and the side lost to both Trencin and Rosenborg while drawing with Partizan Belgrade in front of their own fans.
None of those three teams would be favourites to beat Manchester City and I do think the English team can show the extra quality they have to wear down Steaua Bucharest. The home team can't afford to play things too tight as they will want to have a lead to take to The Etihad Stadium next week and I think Manchester City will be able to pick them off.
Manchester City might not have the best away record in the Champions League, but they have mainly come against teams that are superior to Steaua Bucharest. In the last three seasons Manchester City have won half of their 14 away games in the Champions League and 4 of those wins have come by more than one goal. They have won 0-3 at Viktoria Plzen, 1-2 at CSKA Moscow and 1-3 at Dynamo Kiev in that time and I will back Manchester City to record a comfortable win in Romania to put one foot into the Group Stage.
Aston Villa v Huddersfield Town Pick: The scoreboard might have suggested Aston Villa had an 'easy' afternoon on Saturday when beating Rotherham United 3-0, but there were some real scares for them in that match especially when only leading 1-0.
It is a big win to boost the confidence, but their visitors will also be heading into this match with plenty of belief as Huddersfield Town secured a very impressive 1-2 win at Newcastle United last time out.
That follows a 2-1 League win over Brentford and all three Huddersfield Town matches so far in the new season have provided at least three goals shared out. While they have looked good going forward, defensively Huddersfield Town can be vulnerable and Aston Villa have shown they can take advantage of any chances that they do create.
This match has all the makings of being a 2-1 scoreline either way as both teams have shown attacking threats mixed with some defensive problems. At odds against, backing at least three goals shared out looks the call.
Leeds United v Fulham Pick: With an owner that has been as trigger happy on the sacking button as Massimo Cellino has been since taking over at Leeds United, Garry Monk has to be feeling the pressure after back to back League losses. Now they have to take on surprise package Fulham at Elland Road where the big crowd comes with plenty of expectations every week which seems to cripple the team from expressing themselves.
I am not sure where I stand on Fulham who have surprised me twice already this season with unexpected wins, but they are not as big outsiders in this one as they have been in their first two League wins.
That will change the mindset and I will be keeping an eye on where Fulham go after this game, but I do think they can contribute to a decent spectacle for the fans on Tuesday.
Leeds United have looked poor defensively, but will be expected to attack at home which should see chances created at both ends. Fulham had 15 of 23 away games see three goals shared out last season and they have already opened with two more in the last week and I think the odds against quotes have to be backed for at least three goals scored in this match.
Norwich City v Bristol City Pick: I am not sure why the Norwich City fans seemed so willing to get on the backs of their players after the goalless draw with Sheffield Wednesday, but Alex Neil showed enough resolve as manager last season to not be overly concerned about that reaction from the supporters.
That game on Saturday was between two teams who will likely challenge for promotion to the Premier League, but Norwich City should have a better chance of recording a win when facing Bristol City. The Robins have made a brilliant start to the new season, but may have benefited from what looks a decent set of fixtures on paper.
Now they are in for a much tougher match than the likes of Wigan Athletic and Burton Albion, two promoted teams from League One, and Bristol City struggled when visiting the best teams in the Championship last season. While they will be more confident having won all 3 games played so far this season, it might be tough to bridge the gap between themselves and a relegated team from the Premier League and I think Norwich City will earn the win to send the fans home happier than they were on Saturday.
Celtic v Hapoel Be'er Sheva Pick: The Champions League is clearly the priority for Celtic at this stage of the season and failing to get to the Group Stage for a third consecutive season would be a big blow to Brendan Rodgers and the club. The last couple of years have seen Celtic lose to Maribor and Malmo in the Play Off Round of the competition after negotiating the earlier Qualifying Rounds, but arguably Hapoel Be'er Sheva are the weakest of the trio they have faced.
Some may even argue that the tie against Astana in the Third Qualifying Round was the more difficult one, but that means increased expectation on the Celtic players. Having the home game first will increase the pressure too as Celtic will feel they need some sort of lead to take to Israel next week, although they can't afford to underestimate Hapoel Be'er Sheva.
The Israeli Champions have shown they can dig in and battle for a result in their goalless draws at Sheriff Tiraspol and Olympiacos in the Champions League already. Like Celtic, Hapoel Be'er Sheva could easily suggest their Third Qualifying Round opponent, Olympiacos, is tougher than the one they see in the Play Off Round, but there is less experience in the Israeli squad compared with Celtic.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva have had two upset wins to get into this Play Off Round, but I can't shift their losses to RNK Split and Thun from my mind and feel they might have overachieved already. They lost the away Leg in both of those Europa League Second Qualifying Round ties and I do think Celtic will have enough quality to find a way to earn a narrow win in this one.
The tie should be far from over for when they recommence battle next week in the Second Leg, but I do expect Celtic to begin that Leg with some sort of lead to defend.
Dundalk v Legia Warsaw Pick: It has been a special run which has taken Dundalk through to the Champions League Play Off Round and the 3-0 win over BATE Borisov in the Third Qualifying Round has to be one of their biggest wins in their history. Beating Legia Warsaw would surpass that and put Dundalk alongside some of the biggest names in European football, and the players have admitted they are going into the match without an 'inferiority complex' weighing them down.
There is a lot to admire about the run Dundalk have had, but I can't help feel they have perhaps been overrated a little in this First Leg. They haven't lost any of their last 3 home games, but Dundalk did have to settle for a 1-1 draw with FH from Iceland and they were comfortably seen off by Hajduk Split in Ireland just a couple of years ago.
Home advantage might not be as strong as normal either with the game being played at the Aviva Stadium due to the demand for tickets. Plenty in the crowd will be there to see Legia Warsaw too and the Polish Champions have come through tougher tests already in the Champions League to make it to the Play Off Round.
Only two years ago Legia Warsaw came to Dublin and beat Irish Champions St Patrick's Athletic 0-5 and while I can't see it being that easy this week, I do think the away side are considerably stronger.
Unlike BATE Borisov, Legia Warsaw have a decent away record in European competition and have won at St Patrick's Athletic and Celtic in recent years. I expect they can make their quality count in this one and the odds against quotes are tempting enough to see Legia Warsaw have any kind of advantage heading to Poland next week.
Porto v Roma Pick: This is arguably the best Play Off Round tie and there isn't a lot to separate Porto and Roma as both teams are desperate to make the Champions League Group Stage. The home advantage and the fact their season has already begun might favour Porto, but Roma aren't far behind when it comes to their fitness as their own domestic campaign begins this weekend.
However Roma haven't always been the best travelling team in Europe and so the key for them might be to head to Portugal and look to grab an away goal even in a narrow defeat to take back to the Italian capital. That would still make Roma favourites to progress, but I really don't think there will be much between the teams over both Legs.
The Porto home form isn't as strong as some of the previous teams have produced and they did end last season with 2 losses from their final 5 games here. While they did beat Chelsea in the Champions League at home, Porto lost their last 2 European home games against Dynamo Kiev and Borussia Dortmund, but they had won 8 of 9 home games in the Champions League before the loss to Dynamo Kiev.
On the other hand, Roma are unbeaten in 10 games in all competitions since their 2-0 loss at Real Madrid in the Champions League Second Round and they did lost 3 of their 4 away games in the Champions League last season. Two of those came against Real Madrid and Barcelona, but it is the defeat at BATE Borisov that was the stand out result for Roma.
Goals weren't a problem in Roma away games last season and they will likely push for an away goal or two in this one. The onus is on Porto to attack too as they look to get a lead to protect for the Second Leg and I will back at least three goals to be shared out in what are normally tight First Leg affairs.
Villarreal v Monaco Pick: Antonio Cordon is the big link between Villarreal and Monaco as he has moved from the former to the latter in the summer. Cordon has been considered a key part of the Villarreal recruitment policy in recent years which has rejuvenated this club and he is expected to do the same for Monaco who are someway of the pace set by Paris Saint-Germain in France.
However it will be events on the pitch that will determine which of these teams makes it through the Play Off Round and into the Champions League Group Stage. Both Villarreal and Monaco might have hoped to avoid one another in this Round and I can see this being a close contest over two Legs.
In both cases I think the home advantage is going to be of real importance and Monaco showed those vulnerabilities on their travels that Villarreal will be looking to exploit. Monaco have not won any of their last 5 away European games and have lost 3 of those including a defeat in Spain to Valencia in the Play Off Round last season.
On the other hand Villarreal have won 7 in a row at home in European competition and have won 11 of their last 13 here. They will be looking to get on the front foot and give themselves some sort of advantage to take into the Second Leg next week and I do think Villarreal can win the First Leg.
Radamel Falcao has scored in the last two Champions League games for Monaco but could potentially be missing for this First Leg which will give Villarreal a boost in confidence. Even though the home team have made some changes to the starting eleven with their transfer dealings over the summer, I think Villarreal can continue their fine home European form and give themselves a narrow advantage to take to Monaco next week for the Second Leg.
Cardiff City v Blackburn Rovers Pick: Both Cardiff City and Blackburn Rovers have made poor starts to the new season but they will both be heading into this fixture feeling they have a good chance to turn around their immediate fortunes.
The edge has to be given to Cardiff City who are hosting this match and who had played well at home for much of last season. Their 0-2 defeat to Queens Park Rangers on Sunday was a surprising loss and Cardiff City have yet to score in 3 games in all competitions this season, but they are facing a porous Blackburn Rovers defence in this one.
Owen Coyle must already be under pressure as Blackburn Rovers manager thanks to seven goals conceded in a couple of League games, but I don't want to rule a line through this team in this match. They did struggle when facing the best teams in the Division away from home last season, and I do think this is going to be a difficult season for Blackburn Rovers, but the lack of goals in the Cardiff City squad to open the season is a concern when backing the home team.
However the odds against quotes for Cardiff City are tempting enough as they should remain tough to play in Wales and I will back them to win this one.
Newcastle United v Reading Pick: Having expected Newcastle United to win in each of the first two games of the League season, it was unexpected that I have been wrong both times as they have surprisingly lost to both Fulham and Huddersfield Town. That makes this game a huge one for Newcastle United and Rafa Benitez especially as The Toon Army could be right on the brink of revolt if they see their side lose another League game already.
Last time in the Championship Newcastle United only lost 4 games all season so falling to a third defeat before the end of the first month would be a huge blow to The Magpies.
Facing Reading means a meeting with another club that are expected to be in the bottom half of the League table, but Newcastle United can't underestimate them after falling to Fulham and Huddersfield Town. Reading have at least won a game already this season in the League, but their away record over the last twelve months in the Championship has been disappointing.
I might be a little foolish in backing Newcastle United this week, but they look a decent price to get back on the horse against a team that lost 14 of 23 away games last season and already went down 2-0 at Wolves this past weekend. Failure in this one could easily cost Rafa Benitez his job, but I expect the Spaniard to get it right and help Newcastle United to the three points and ease the pressure on himself.
Astana v BATE Borisov Pick: Both Astana and BATE Borisov have to get over the disappointment of missing out on the Champions League Group Stage having both been playing in that part of the competition last season. Both would have felt they should have beaten Celtic and Dundalk respectively, but the winner of this tie could still face some major European names with the likes of Manchester United and Inter Milan in the Groups of the Europa League.
Home advantage is likely to be key for both clubs over the next week and I think Astana can give themselves an advantage to take to Belarus in the Second Leg.
Astana are unbeaten in 8 home European games and they did win 3 Qualifiers here last season in the Champions League and they did hold the likes of Atletico Madrid and Benfica here. If they had taken their chances Astana would have added Celtic to the list of teams they have beaten here over the last twelve months and they will be hard to stop in front of their own fans.
On the other hand BATE Borisov have failed to win any of their last 18 away European games and have lost 12 of those games. Defeats in Debrecen, Partizan Belgrade and Dundalk suggests there is some sort of mental block for BATE Borisov outside of Belarus that they have to resolve and this is a tough place to do that.
This will be a tight tie over two Legs and there isn't a lot between them, but I think Astana can make home advantage count to give them a narrow lead for the Second Leg.
Austria Vienna v Rosenborg Pick: If this Europa League Play Off Round tie is anything like when Austria Vienna met Rosenborg in the 1993/94 Champions League then the neutrals are in for a treat.
Both of those games were high-scoring, attacking and dramatic matches but both Austria Vienna and Rosenborg are much changed teams now.
Austria Vienna are back in European competition after a couple of years of missing out but they have struggled at home, while Rosenborg might feel they should still be trying to get into the Champions League Group Stage after going out thanks to three injury time goals to APOEL in the Third Qualifying Round.
The Rosenborg away games in recent European games have tended to be high-scoring as they have shown they can score goals, but also seem to be vulnerable defensively. They had also conceded three times in 3 away games in a row before beating Viking 0-2 last time out, while Austria Vienna's home games have produced nine goals in the last couple of games.
I do think both teams will give this First Leg a go and I am looking for goals to be shared out by the two sides. A gut feeling says Rosenborg snap their recent run of 4 consecutive away defeats in Europe to give themselves a platform to move into the Europa League Group Stage, but I can't see them keeping a clean sheet in this one either.
Astra v West Ham United Pick: There looks to be a clear shift in how Slaven Bilic views the Europa League this season compared with the attitude last season and so a stronger West Ham United team are expected to take on Astra this time around. Last season a much changed team took the lead in Romania but were eventually beaten 2-1 and a stronger starting line up is expected in this one.
However West Ham United have not been at their best away from home in recent games compared with how well they began last season in the Premier League. The defeat at Chelsea saw a flat performance from The Hammers, but they are not expected to make wholesale changes as they did when they visited Astra last season.
It also has to be said that Astra's recent form is not the most impressive and they have already been disappointed with an early Champions League exit. However they have saved their best performances in European competition for their home games and Astra are unbeaten in 6 home games in Europe which makes odds on quotes for a West Ham United win look short enough.
Add in the fact that West Ham United have lost their last 3 away games in Europe as well as their last 3 away games overall and you have to have the feeling that Slaven Bilic would take a draw to finish the job at home next week. Last season only a James Collins sending off turned the home tie with West Ham United 2-0 up and they will believe they can win at home as long as they don't have a big deficit to overcome.
I do expect a strong West Ham United team to take to the field in this one. Even with that in mind, I think they look short in a match they would be happy to take a draw and I am happy to back Astra on the Asian Handicap where a one goal loss would return half the stakes.
Trencin v Rapid Vienna Pick: The poor home form in European football has cost Trencin their place in the Group Stage of either the Champions League or Europa League in recent seasons. Trencin have had some good results too, but winning over two Legs is a tough proposition, while the side have made a poor start to the new season both domestically and in Europe.
While they are dropping from the Champions League into the Europa League, Rapid Vienna are still the favourites to come through this tie over two Legs. In fact the Austrian side are favourites to win the First Leg and I think they can be backed at odds against.
Rapid Vienna won away games at Ajax, Viktoria Plzen and Dinamo Minsk last season and also drew with Shakhtar Donetsk which shows they are more than capable of matching the wins Legia Warsaw, NK Olimpija and Steaua Bucharest have recorded here over the last twelve months.
The 1-4 win at Austria Vienna would only have improved the confidence for Rapid Vienna while Trencin have had a poor start at home this season with 3 losses in 4 games. At odds against the Austrian side can get the better of Trencin and give themselves a strong platform to progress to the Europa League Group Stage and I will back them to do that.
MY PICKS: Rostov + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aston Villa-Huddersfield Town Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Leeds United-Fulham Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Norwich City @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Celtic @ 1.67 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Legia Warsaw @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)
Porto-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Villarreal @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cardiff City @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Newcastle United @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Astana @ 2.50 William Hill (2 Units)
Austria Vienna-Rosenborg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Astra + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rapid Vienna @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
August Update: 3-3, - 0.40 Units (12 Units Staked, - 3.33% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Tuesday, 25 August 2015
Midweek Football Picks 2015 (August 25-27)
Wedding season means Sunday night was a bit of write off for me, while Monday was a day of recovery and recuperation from the previous night exploits.
It might be fun times, but it also means the picks come out a little later than normal.
Monaco v Valencia Pick: The Second Leg of the Champions League Play Off ties have produced a number of high-scoring games in recent years much to do with the Knock Out nature of the ties. Teams will be a little more open as they look to get back into games and that is a big issue for Monaco who trail Valencia 3-1 after the First Leg in Spain.
Goals have been a problem for Monaco and this is a team that can't really push the tempo of a game as much as they would like, preferring to play on the counter-attack where possible. They did do it effectively against Young Boys in the Third Qualifying Round, but Valencia are a significant step up in terms of class and Monaco have to be aware that they could be caught on the counter themselves as they look to get back into the tie.
The layers are not really expecting this game to fire into life in terms of goals, but I do think they might be taking a risk with the price being offered for at least three goals being scored. Valencia have the players that can expose any defensive gaps Monaco may leave to get back into the game, while the home side have to attack.
Conceding the first goal might destroy Monaco's confidence of getting through and perhaps see them struggle to motivate themselves to get forward effectively, but the fans should keep the side going forward.
You can understand this game will be a little tense if Monaco score first as they will only need one more goal to progress and might feel they can bide their time. Valencia may then also feel they have something to protect and slow down the entire game, but there were plenty of attempts on goal in the First Leg and I do think the chance of goals has been under-estimated.
Maccabi Tel Aviv v Basel Pick: Two late goals in the First Leg first shifted this tie in favour of Basel before the momentum moved back towards Maccabi Tel Aviv, but both clubs will know there is all to play for in this Second Leg.
Confidence should be high in both camps and I think this is going to lead to an exciting game in Tel Aviv with the opportunity for goals really coming to the fore. Maccabi Tel Aviv have goals in the team, although they don't have to push too many men forward early in the game as they have the two away goals which means a low scoring draw is good enough to progress.
However, they are facing a Basel team which has shown they are very confident away from home and the 1-3 win at Lech Poznan looked highly impressive. Basel have scored at least three goals in each of their five away games this season and that high production rate has led to three wins so they won't be heading to Israel thinking they are out of this tie.
With only one clean sheet in those five games, Basel will be put under pressure by Maccabi Tel Aviv too and spaces could open up as one of the teams begin to chase the game in the second half. The teams both should create chances in this one and this may be another of the Second Leg ties this week that produces at least three goals.
Malmo v Celtic Pick: The late goal for Malmo in the First Leg could be absolutely critical in determining whether the Swedish or Scottish Champions get into the Champions League Group Stage. Instead of a 3-1 deficit which would have made Celtic a fairly strong favourite to progress, Malmo know a narrow home win is enough to see them into the Group Stage for the second season in a row.
Experiences of overcoming First Leg defeats away from home also gives Malmo the confidence to get this done and overturn the defeat in Glasgow. Over the last two seasons, Malmo have beaten Sparta Prague and Salzburg twice following defeats in the First Leg away from home and two of those ties saw Malmo two goals behind in the First Leg.
Malmo have won 4 in a row at home in all competitions and have scored at least two goals in each of those games so there will be the belief that Malmo can do enough to put themselves in a position to move past Celtic.
You can't underestimate the heart that Celtic have shown in losing just 1 of their last 5 away games in the Champions League, including going unbeaten in their 2 away ties this season. However, winning games has been more of a problem for Celtic and it is hard to see them sitting back and being able to defend the lead they have from the First Leg.
It does feel that Malmo are being offered at a very generous price to win this game when you think they have won 4 of their last 7 home games in the Champions League. They have beaten Sparta Prague and Salzburg, two teams that would be favoured to beat Celtic, as well as a powerhouse in Olympiacos in the Group Stage. Defeats to Atletico Madrid and Juventus are very understandable and Malmo do look a big price to win the Second Leg in all honesty.
Goals should also be in play in this one as teams perhaps open up to chase the game depending on the situation, but I think backing Malmo to win the game looks too big a price to ignore.
Club Brugge v Manchester United Pick: The late goal from Marouane Fellaini in the First Leg looks like it had knocked the stuffing out of Michel Preud'homme in his post-game interview. There wasn't a lot of belief from the manager that Club Brugge can overcome all the injuries in the squad and the two goal deficit in the Second Leg, but Manchester United can't take anything for granted as an early goal for the home team will shift the pressure markedly.
It was an early goal for Club Brugge in the First Leg that stunned Manchester United and the Belgian side looked a threat on the break with the pace they have. However, the situation has changed and I expect Manchester United to make sure there is no space for that threat to develop in the Second Leg, while also trying to hit Club Brugge on the break when they push on looking for the goals to get back into the tie.
This is a team that Louis Van Gaal will have respect for having noted they have scored at least twice in each of their three home games this season and also beat Panathinaikos 3-0 in the Third Qualifying Round. Club Brugge are unbeaten in 10 European games at home and their experience of reaching the last eight in the Europa League but they have to show the right balance to get back into this tie and I think that is where Manchester United can take advantage.
For the most part this season, Manchester United have defended well and doing that will put them in a strong position to get through what can be a difficult Second Leg. As Club Brugge perhaps get a little desperate to find a way back in, I think the likes of Memphis Depay can offer Manchester United a real chance to exploit gaps that may open up and perhaps win the Second Leg too.
It won't be easy and there will be some really difficult moments, but Manchester United can book their place in the Group Stage with a narrow win in Belgium despite a poor recent record away from home in the Champions League.
CSKA Moscow v Sporting Lisbon Pick: The First Leg of this tie was an entertaining game that saw both teams have their chances, but it was Sporting Lisbon who have managed to head to Russia for the Second Leg with a narrow advantage.
The tie is far from over at 2-1, especially when you think Sporting Lisbon have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in European competition, although it is an intriguing Second Leg because of CSKA Moscow's failures to get the job done at home. That was shown up in the Third Qualifying Round when CSKA Moscow had to settle for a 2-2 home draw with Sparta Prague despite leading twice and it does point to the fact we could see goals in the Second Leg to match the First Leg.
5 of the last 7 CSKA Moscow home games in the Champions League have featured at least three goals as they have continued to show defensive vulnerabilities. Sporting Lisbon last season saw 2 of their 3 away games in the Champions League also end with at least three goals shared by the teams and they scored in all 3 away games in the competition.
The situation of this tie is likely going to see some spaces open up as the game goes on and I think both teams are likely going to score in this one. I would not be surprised at all if it was to go into extra time and perhaps penalties, but it is finely balanced and really could go either way. However, it looks like a game that will provide goals for the neutrals and I will back this Second Leg to feature at least three goals too.
AZ Alkmaar v Astra Pick: Both AZ Alkmaar and Astra have shown they are very good in front of goal in the early stages of their seasons, although AZ Alkmaar have failed to score in their last couple of home games in the Dutch Eredivisie.
The team they are facing have conceded plenty of goals though and Astra are unlikely to sit back and look to defend a 3-2 lead from the First Leg. They showed they are capable of scoring goals away from home even when they have gone up to the Europa League level and Astra have scored in all 7 away games in this competition since the beginning of last season.
However, it has to be pointed out that they have conceded at least twice in 5 of those 7 games too and so AZ Alkmaar will believe they will get the chances to get back into this tie in the Second Leg.
An early goal could again this spark a match between these two to life and there will likely be chances for one of the teams when the match becomes stretched in the second half. Either way, it does make the over 2.5 goals option look the call in this Second Leg at fairly generous odds.
Fenerbahce v Atromitos Athens Pick: The goal scored by Robin Van Persie has given Fenerbahce the edge in this tie and I do expect them to complete the job in Istanbul.
As solid as Atromitos Athens have been in recent weeks, the majority of their successes have come at home and being defeated there in the First Leg gives them a mountain to climb. However, over the last three seasons Atromitos Athens have won 3 away ties in a row and they have scored the goals that would see them progress from this tie if they can manage to do that again.
However, Fenerbahce are a much tougher side than AZ Alkmaar, Sarajevo or AIK and it will be difficult for Atromitos Athens in the atmosphere they are likely to face. Fenerbahce couldn't get the win over Shakhtar Donetsk in the First Leg of their Champions League tie against them at home, but they had won 4 of 6 home games in European competition prior to that.
If Atromitos Athens start pushing forward to get back in the tie, Fenerbahce should be able to pick them off and win this game by a couple of goals and move into the Group Stage.
Panathinaikos v Qabala Pick: The goalless draw in Baku last week has given Panathinaikos every chance to progress to the Group Stage of the Europa League as they did twelve months ago.
The poor form at home in European competition has to be a worry for Panathinaikos, but the game against Qabala is one they will be expecting to win. They showed they can battle when they beat Club Brugge despite playing with ten men for much of that game and the Greek side should have the quality in the final third to see off their Azerbaijan opponents.
Teams who perform well in their domestic League don't always have the quality to bridge the gap once they get into European competition and that is an issue for Qabala. They had lost all 3 away games in the Europa League over the last fourteen months before a late equaliser at Apollon, but the rise in quality they are facing is going to make it very difficult for Qabala.
Panathinaikos should win this one by a couple of goals to move into the Groups.
Salzburg v Dinamo Minsk Pick: A 2-0 defeat in Belarus has put Salzburg on the brink of exiting all European competitions before the end of August and it looks a big task for them to overturn that result in the Second Leg. Salzburg are at home though and they have played very well here in European competition which has seen them win 4 of their last 6 games at home.
The problem for Salzburg is trying to find the balance between attack and defence as a goal for Dinamo Minsk is likely going to be too much to overcome. They can't rush things and get caught, but there are goals in the Salzburg squad and they do have a chance if they can get in front and get the fans behind them.
You have to have a lot of respect for Dinamo Minsk who have been tough to play away from home in the Europa League and won impressively at Fiorentina and Zurich.
They have scored in 6 of their last 7 away games in the Europa League and will be a threat in this Second Leg, but Salzburg can out-score them in this one and I will back them to have a chance to overturn a big deficit and move into the Group Stage.
Midtjylland v Southampton Pick: The First Leg was a tight and tense affair at times because of the lack of confidence that Southampton have been exhibiting, while Midtjylland were comfortable with the away goal they had earned and simply didn't want to lose. The Second Leg is one that many expect will go the same way, but this game could quickly change into a more attacking one if a team has to chase the game and gaps open up.
It also has to be said that Midtjylland have struggled a lot more at home than they have on their travels in recent European games. While they performed well last week in Southampton and won at APOEL, Midtjylland were beaten by APOEL here and last year Panathinaikos won in Denmark in the Play Off Round of the Europa League.
My concern is the lacklustre performances that Southampton have put in over their last three games, especially in the final third where they haven't created the chances they would have wanted. This is clearly a competition that Ronald Koeman is putting significant stock into, but Southampton have to find a way to get the ball into the final third quicker than they have, especially to break down a well organised Midtjylland defence.
However, Southampton had some success in the First Leg in the second half and I do think Midtjylland have had a harder time working the balance out at home where they are expected to attack. Three of their last four home games in European competition have seen at least three goals shared out as Midtjylland have struggled to find the right balance in front of their own fans against better opposition than they have seen in Denmark on a regular basis.
The layers are giving big odds on there being at least three goals in this one and I think there is a chance that this game is perhaps more open than the First Leg. The game should start of tense, but set pieces are a big opportunity for both teams to get going and spaces should open up once the first goal goes in and perhaps offer the opportunity for a big price on goals being taken.
MY PICKS: Monaco-Valencia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maccabi Tel Aviv-Basel Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Malmo @ 2.88 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
CSKA Moscow-Sporting Lisbon Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
AZ Alkmaar-Astra Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fenerbahce - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Panathinaikos - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Salzburg - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Midtjylland-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
August Update: 8-23, - 26.70 Units (61 Units Staked, - 43.77% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
It might be fun times, but it also means the picks come out a little later than normal.
Monaco v Valencia Pick: The Second Leg of the Champions League Play Off ties have produced a number of high-scoring games in recent years much to do with the Knock Out nature of the ties. Teams will be a little more open as they look to get back into games and that is a big issue for Monaco who trail Valencia 3-1 after the First Leg in Spain.
Goals have been a problem for Monaco and this is a team that can't really push the tempo of a game as much as they would like, preferring to play on the counter-attack where possible. They did do it effectively against Young Boys in the Third Qualifying Round, but Valencia are a significant step up in terms of class and Monaco have to be aware that they could be caught on the counter themselves as they look to get back into the tie.
The layers are not really expecting this game to fire into life in terms of goals, but I do think they might be taking a risk with the price being offered for at least three goals being scored. Valencia have the players that can expose any defensive gaps Monaco may leave to get back into the game, while the home side have to attack.
Conceding the first goal might destroy Monaco's confidence of getting through and perhaps see them struggle to motivate themselves to get forward effectively, but the fans should keep the side going forward.
You can understand this game will be a little tense if Monaco score first as they will only need one more goal to progress and might feel they can bide their time. Valencia may then also feel they have something to protect and slow down the entire game, but there were plenty of attempts on goal in the First Leg and I do think the chance of goals has been under-estimated.
Maccabi Tel Aviv v Basel Pick: Two late goals in the First Leg first shifted this tie in favour of Basel before the momentum moved back towards Maccabi Tel Aviv, but both clubs will know there is all to play for in this Second Leg.
Confidence should be high in both camps and I think this is going to lead to an exciting game in Tel Aviv with the opportunity for goals really coming to the fore. Maccabi Tel Aviv have goals in the team, although they don't have to push too many men forward early in the game as they have the two away goals which means a low scoring draw is good enough to progress.
However, they are facing a Basel team which has shown they are very confident away from home and the 1-3 win at Lech Poznan looked highly impressive. Basel have scored at least three goals in each of their five away games this season and that high production rate has led to three wins so they won't be heading to Israel thinking they are out of this tie.
With only one clean sheet in those five games, Basel will be put under pressure by Maccabi Tel Aviv too and spaces could open up as one of the teams begin to chase the game in the second half. The teams both should create chances in this one and this may be another of the Second Leg ties this week that produces at least three goals.
Malmo v Celtic Pick: The late goal for Malmo in the First Leg could be absolutely critical in determining whether the Swedish or Scottish Champions get into the Champions League Group Stage. Instead of a 3-1 deficit which would have made Celtic a fairly strong favourite to progress, Malmo know a narrow home win is enough to see them into the Group Stage for the second season in a row.
Experiences of overcoming First Leg defeats away from home also gives Malmo the confidence to get this done and overturn the defeat in Glasgow. Over the last two seasons, Malmo have beaten Sparta Prague and Salzburg twice following defeats in the First Leg away from home and two of those ties saw Malmo two goals behind in the First Leg.
Malmo have won 4 in a row at home in all competitions and have scored at least two goals in each of those games so there will be the belief that Malmo can do enough to put themselves in a position to move past Celtic.
You can't underestimate the heart that Celtic have shown in losing just 1 of their last 5 away games in the Champions League, including going unbeaten in their 2 away ties this season. However, winning games has been more of a problem for Celtic and it is hard to see them sitting back and being able to defend the lead they have from the First Leg.
It does feel that Malmo are being offered at a very generous price to win this game when you think they have won 4 of their last 7 home games in the Champions League. They have beaten Sparta Prague and Salzburg, two teams that would be favoured to beat Celtic, as well as a powerhouse in Olympiacos in the Group Stage. Defeats to Atletico Madrid and Juventus are very understandable and Malmo do look a big price to win the Second Leg in all honesty.
Goals should also be in play in this one as teams perhaps open up to chase the game depending on the situation, but I think backing Malmo to win the game looks too big a price to ignore.
Club Brugge v Manchester United Pick: The late goal from Marouane Fellaini in the First Leg looks like it had knocked the stuffing out of Michel Preud'homme in his post-game interview. There wasn't a lot of belief from the manager that Club Brugge can overcome all the injuries in the squad and the two goal deficit in the Second Leg, but Manchester United can't take anything for granted as an early goal for the home team will shift the pressure markedly.
It was an early goal for Club Brugge in the First Leg that stunned Manchester United and the Belgian side looked a threat on the break with the pace they have. However, the situation has changed and I expect Manchester United to make sure there is no space for that threat to develop in the Second Leg, while also trying to hit Club Brugge on the break when they push on looking for the goals to get back into the tie.
This is a team that Louis Van Gaal will have respect for having noted they have scored at least twice in each of their three home games this season and also beat Panathinaikos 3-0 in the Third Qualifying Round. Club Brugge are unbeaten in 10 European games at home and their experience of reaching the last eight in the Europa League but they have to show the right balance to get back into this tie and I think that is where Manchester United can take advantage.
For the most part this season, Manchester United have defended well and doing that will put them in a strong position to get through what can be a difficult Second Leg. As Club Brugge perhaps get a little desperate to find a way back in, I think the likes of Memphis Depay can offer Manchester United a real chance to exploit gaps that may open up and perhaps win the Second Leg too.
It won't be easy and there will be some really difficult moments, but Manchester United can book their place in the Group Stage with a narrow win in Belgium despite a poor recent record away from home in the Champions League.
CSKA Moscow v Sporting Lisbon Pick: The First Leg of this tie was an entertaining game that saw both teams have their chances, but it was Sporting Lisbon who have managed to head to Russia for the Second Leg with a narrow advantage.
The tie is far from over at 2-1, especially when you think Sporting Lisbon have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in European competition, although it is an intriguing Second Leg because of CSKA Moscow's failures to get the job done at home. That was shown up in the Third Qualifying Round when CSKA Moscow had to settle for a 2-2 home draw with Sparta Prague despite leading twice and it does point to the fact we could see goals in the Second Leg to match the First Leg.
5 of the last 7 CSKA Moscow home games in the Champions League have featured at least three goals as they have continued to show defensive vulnerabilities. Sporting Lisbon last season saw 2 of their 3 away games in the Champions League also end with at least three goals shared by the teams and they scored in all 3 away games in the competition.
The situation of this tie is likely going to see some spaces open up as the game goes on and I think both teams are likely going to score in this one. I would not be surprised at all if it was to go into extra time and perhaps penalties, but it is finely balanced and really could go either way. However, it looks like a game that will provide goals for the neutrals and I will back this Second Leg to feature at least three goals too.
AZ Alkmaar v Astra Pick: Both AZ Alkmaar and Astra have shown they are very good in front of goal in the early stages of their seasons, although AZ Alkmaar have failed to score in their last couple of home games in the Dutch Eredivisie.
The team they are facing have conceded plenty of goals though and Astra are unlikely to sit back and look to defend a 3-2 lead from the First Leg. They showed they are capable of scoring goals away from home even when they have gone up to the Europa League level and Astra have scored in all 7 away games in this competition since the beginning of last season.
However, it has to be pointed out that they have conceded at least twice in 5 of those 7 games too and so AZ Alkmaar will believe they will get the chances to get back into this tie in the Second Leg.
An early goal could again this spark a match between these two to life and there will likely be chances for one of the teams when the match becomes stretched in the second half. Either way, it does make the over 2.5 goals option look the call in this Second Leg at fairly generous odds.
Fenerbahce v Atromitos Athens Pick: The goal scored by Robin Van Persie has given Fenerbahce the edge in this tie and I do expect them to complete the job in Istanbul.
As solid as Atromitos Athens have been in recent weeks, the majority of their successes have come at home and being defeated there in the First Leg gives them a mountain to climb. However, over the last three seasons Atromitos Athens have won 3 away ties in a row and they have scored the goals that would see them progress from this tie if they can manage to do that again.
However, Fenerbahce are a much tougher side than AZ Alkmaar, Sarajevo or AIK and it will be difficult for Atromitos Athens in the atmosphere they are likely to face. Fenerbahce couldn't get the win over Shakhtar Donetsk in the First Leg of their Champions League tie against them at home, but they had won 4 of 6 home games in European competition prior to that.
If Atromitos Athens start pushing forward to get back in the tie, Fenerbahce should be able to pick them off and win this game by a couple of goals and move into the Group Stage.
Panathinaikos v Qabala Pick: The goalless draw in Baku last week has given Panathinaikos every chance to progress to the Group Stage of the Europa League as they did twelve months ago.
The poor form at home in European competition has to be a worry for Panathinaikos, but the game against Qabala is one they will be expecting to win. They showed they can battle when they beat Club Brugge despite playing with ten men for much of that game and the Greek side should have the quality in the final third to see off their Azerbaijan opponents.
Teams who perform well in their domestic League don't always have the quality to bridge the gap once they get into European competition and that is an issue for Qabala. They had lost all 3 away games in the Europa League over the last fourteen months before a late equaliser at Apollon, but the rise in quality they are facing is going to make it very difficult for Qabala.
Panathinaikos should win this one by a couple of goals to move into the Groups.
Salzburg v Dinamo Minsk Pick: A 2-0 defeat in Belarus has put Salzburg on the brink of exiting all European competitions before the end of August and it looks a big task for them to overturn that result in the Second Leg. Salzburg are at home though and they have played very well here in European competition which has seen them win 4 of their last 6 games at home.
The problem for Salzburg is trying to find the balance between attack and defence as a goal for Dinamo Minsk is likely going to be too much to overcome. They can't rush things and get caught, but there are goals in the Salzburg squad and they do have a chance if they can get in front and get the fans behind them.
You have to have a lot of respect for Dinamo Minsk who have been tough to play away from home in the Europa League and won impressively at Fiorentina and Zurich.
They have scored in 6 of their last 7 away games in the Europa League and will be a threat in this Second Leg, but Salzburg can out-score them in this one and I will back them to have a chance to overturn a big deficit and move into the Group Stage.
Midtjylland v Southampton Pick: The First Leg was a tight and tense affair at times because of the lack of confidence that Southampton have been exhibiting, while Midtjylland were comfortable with the away goal they had earned and simply didn't want to lose. The Second Leg is one that many expect will go the same way, but this game could quickly change into a more attacking one if a team has to chase the game and gaps open up.
It also has to be said that Midtjylland have struggled a lot more at home than they have on their travels in recent European games. While they performed well last week in Southampton and won at APOEL, Midtjylland were beaten by APOEL here and last year Panathinaikos won in Denmark in the Play Off Round of the Europa League.
My concern is the lacklustre performances that Southampton have put in over their last three games, especially in the final third where they haven't created the chances they would have wanted. This is clearly a competition that Ronald Koeman is putting significant stock into, but Southampton have to find a way to get the ball into the final third quicker than they have, especially to break down a well organised Midtjylland defence.
However, Southampton had some success in the First Leg in the second half and I do think Midtjylland have had a harder time working the balance out at home where they are expected to attack. Three of their last four home games in European competition have seen at least three goals shared out as Midtjylland have struggled to find the right balance in front of their own fans against better opposition than they have seen in Denmark on a regular basis.
The layers are giving big odds on there being at least three goals in this one and I think there is a chance that this game is perhaps more open than the First Leg. The game should start of tense, but set pieces are a big opportunity for both teams to get going and spaces should open up once the first goal goes in and perhaps offer the opportunity for a big price on goals being taken.
MY PICKS: Monaco-Valencia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maccabi Tel Aviv-Basel Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Malmo @ 2.88 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
CSKA Moscow-Sporting Lisbon Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
AZ Alkmaar-Astra Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fenerbahce - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Panathinaikos - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Salzburg - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Midtjylland-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
August Update: 8-23, - 26.70 Units (61 Units Staked, - 43.77% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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