It has been a difficult week for Manchester United fans after seeing the side lose at Brighton for the second season in a row. I wrote a small piece about United prior to the fixture at the Amex Stadium which can be read here.
With the defeat behind them the pressure has increased of Jose Mourinho and the club in general with many questioning the ambition, or lack of ambition, seemingly displayed in the summer transfer window. A loss to Tottenham Hotspur could lead to a major meltdown at Old Trafford and that is a huge fixture to be played on Monday evening.
The rest of the Premier League fixtures are played before Bank Holiday Monday and there are a number of teams looking to extend their 100% starts to the new seasons. Others are searching for the first points of the new season and the next couple of weeks are very important to some managers knowing the international break could be seen as a big chance to make changes if owners have lost faith in the men in charge.
Onto the Football Picks from this weekend's schedule.
Wolves v Manchester City Pick: The first game of this Round of matches in the Premier League comes from Molineux on Saturday afternoon and the television cameras will be in town as Wolves host the Champions Manchester City. The start made by Manchester City will only have encouraged the belief they can win back to back Premier League titles and become the first club to do that in a decade.
Even the absence of Kevin De Bruyne has not affected the way Manchester City have been able to dominate the first two opponents they have played. With a kind fixture list in front of them, Manchester City could make a start similar to last season which put their rivals in a very difficult position by the time we got around to Christmas, but this is not an easy game.
Wolves were a little disappointing against Everton in the 2-2 draw to open the season and I am not sure they win that match if their visitors don't lose Phil Jagielka to a sending off in the first half. They were much better against Leicester City and should have perhaps got more than the 2-0 defeat they suffered, but I would be a little concerned with the amount of goals and chances conceded.
Last season Wolves finished with the joint best defence in the Championship, but the step up in class is going to be hard to manage. While they did earn a 0-0 draw with Manchester City in the League Cup, the pressures are much different in a League game and I do think Wolves are going to need some luck to avoid a loss here.
The home team only lost twice at home in the League last season, but Everton showed they can be got at. This time they face a very strong Manchester City attack and I think it is impossible to ignore the fact that Pep Guardiola's men won 9 of their 19 away League games by more than a single goal margin last season.
Manchester City already won comfortably at Arsenal in the Premier League and a confident group of players can expose some of the Wolves defensive shortcomings in this one. I wouldn't be massively surprised if Wolves are able to play their part with their quality attacking players, but I think the issue is going to be that they won't have the bite to contain the Manchester City attackers and I am going to back the current Champions to win by a couple of goals on Saturday afternoon.
Arsenal v West Ham United Pick: It has been a tough introduction to life as a Premier League manager for Unai Emery, but Arsenal fans shouldn't be overly concerned in my opinion. Losing to Manchester City at home and Chelsea at Stamford Bridge is disappointing, but both clubs will be tough tests for the very best teams in the Premier League.
The Gunners showed enough positives in both matches to think they will not drop from the recent standards set by the club. It will take time for Emery to get his methods really set in at Arsenal, but he has to stick to his guns as Arsenal get set to face a number of weaker teams.
First up is West Ham United at the Emirates Stadium and The Hammers have had a difficult time under Manuel Pellegrini despite all of the optimism they came into the season with. Back to back losses will knock confidence of players and fans especially West Ham United's 1-2 defeat to Bournemouth in a Premier League game they were leading.
Defensively West Ham United have looked a mess at times and I expect this Arsenal team to create plenty of chances. They did that at Stamford Bridge last Saturday and there is no doubting Arsenal have players who are capable of blowing away some of the weaker teams in the Premier League.
Last season they won all 14 games played against teams below them in the League table at the Emirates Stadium and Arsenal have a very strong record against West Ham United. I wouldn't be surprised if West Ham United scored in this one, but they look very poor at the back and Arsenal can match the big margin of victory they secured in this corresponding fixture last season.
Emery's tactics will give West Ham United opportunities, but the manager will stick with his principles and Arsenal have enough through the midfield and attacking areas to punish this side. Both Emery and Pellegrini had to know there would be some teething problems at their new clubs, but this is a good chance for Arsenal to get their first win of the new season and I think they will earn this victory.
If Arsenal play anything near how they did in the first half at Stamford Bridge, they should have the opportunities to win this game and cover the Asian Handicap.
Bournemouth v Everton Pick: Both Bournemouth and Everton have to be very happy with the starts they have made to the new Premier League season and I have no doubt that both clubs feel they can keep that going this weekend.
Bournemouth have be a surprise considering they were tipped up as a dark horse for relegation in a number of pre-season previews. 2 wins out of 2 will change some opinions, but Eddie Howe is likely to be very aware that West Brom won their opening 2 Premier League games last season and still finished bottom of the League table.
With that in mind Howe will be looking for Bournemouth to keep their positive run going which has picked up from where they left last season. Bournemouth have won 4 straight Premier League games, but Everton look to be a big test for any team in the form they have displayed under Marco Silva.
It took a little longer than they would have hoped to appoint Silva, but it looks to be a decision that the owners have got right as Everton bid to make big strides up the League table compared with last season. The performances against Wolves and Southampton suggests Everton can be very dangerous this weekend against a Bournemouth team who have offered up some big opportunities for their opponents in their 2 wins this season.
However I expect Bournemouth to be encouraged by the chances Everton have allowed to be created against them and I do think it will be a very good game of football. Both League fixtures finished with three goals shared between these teams last season and goals have flowed in their early Premier League games this time around.
There have been enough chances created by both and now they face two defences who have struggled which suggests Bournemouth and Everton can reach at least three goals shared out here.
Huddersfield Town v Cardiff City Pick: It might only be August, but you already have the feeling that both David Wagner and Neil Warnock will know how important a fixture like this one is for their Huddersfield Town and Cardiff City teams.
Both teams will likely be fighting to avoid relegation all season and these two teams went into the 2018/19 season as the leading two teams for relegation as far as the bookmakers were concerned.
The early results and performances will be a concern for both managers and there are issues to address. At least Huddersfield Town can say they have played two of the best teams in the Premier League and are where they would have expected to be after a couple of games, while Cardiff City have yet to score despite playing the likes of Bournemouth and Newcastle United who could be considered potential relegation candidates too.
I do think this could be a very tight match with very little between them and the layers have a similar feeling judging by the prices. Huddersfield Town did lay the foundations for their 2017/18 season in beating those teams around them at home in the Premier League and that has to be respected, but I do worry about the lack of goals in the side.
5 of the 6 home wins secured by Huddersfield Town in the League last season came against teams who finished 10th or lower in the table. That is going to be the key for them again, but the confidence can't be in a great position after two heavy losses and Cardiff City haven't been that far away from earning more than the single point they have secured so far.
Cardiff City have had a couple of very strong wins at Huddersfield Town in their most recent meetings here including two years ago when The Terriers secured promotion to the Premier League. Backing The Bluebirds to avoid defeat looks a tempting price especially if they can take the couple of big chances the have created and I will back Neil Warnock's men to add to the point they earned against Newcastle United last Saturday.
Southampton v Leicester City Pick: This is a very interesting match on Saturday afternoon as two sets of fans could probably sit down together and have a right good moan about manager Claude Puel. Neither Southampton fans or Leicester City fans really got behind their manager although Puel remains in charge of the latter and will be looking to guide his new team to another impressive win at St Mary's.
Life is made that much more difficult for him after Jamie Vardy's sending off last weekend which means the England international will not be available this weekend. With Riyad Mahrez moved on and Shinji Okazaki a doubt, Leicester City could potentially be short of goals this weekend as they look to build on their 2-0 win over Wolves.
Leicester City were a little fortunate in that victory and Southampton will feel they can get the better of an opponent missing key attacking pieces.
So far it has not been the best of starts for Mark Hughes and his team with just a single point on the board. Scoring goals looks to be a continued problem for Southampton who managed just 37 in the whole of last season, but the positive side is Danny Ings getting off the mark in the 2-1 defeat at Everton last weekend.
Home advantage should be key in deciding the outcome of this fixture despite the 1-4 win Leicester City had here last season. The Foxes have been in poor form on their travels in the Premier League with 4 straight away losses going back to last season while Southampton did improve at home under Mark Hughes.
1 win in 4 home games under Hughes might not indicate that, but Southampton did lead Chelsea 2-0 in one game that ended 2-3 to the London club, and Manchester City needed an injury time goal to win here too. Southampton weren't at their best in their goalless draw with Burnley to open the season, but there is more to come from them in my opinion and backing them on the Asian Handicap to win this fixture looks the way to go.
Liverpool v Brighton Pick: There will be much excitement on Merseyside with the start that Liverpool have made to the new Premier League season, but they have yet to gain any points from last season. Making up the big gap to Manchester City will mean either hoping the Champions drop off from the standards set, which looks unlikely on their current form, or Liverpool finding points where they dropped them last time around.
This is another fixture that Liverpool won last season and they will be big favourites to see off Brighton having crushed them 4-0 at Anfield on the last day of the season. On current form it will be very difficult to imagine anything but another comfortable win for Liverpool who have created some top opportunities in the first couple of games and have players who can punish Brighton.
All the credit has to be given to Brighton for beating Manchester United last weekend, but defensively they have a lot of work to do and will miss Lewis Dunk this Saturday. Watford created plenty of good chances against them in a comfortable 2-0 win at Vicarage Road and Brighton have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions.
I expect Chris Hughton will want to set his side up to be hard to beat, but Liverpool are playing with too much confidence at the moment. If they score early it could be a very long day in the office for Brighton and I do think the home team will record another comfortable win to keep the positive momentum going.
It is a big Asian Handicap for Liverpool to cover, but they would have covered it in 8 of their 19 home League games last season. The worst case scenario here is that the result ends in a push as far as I am concerned and I will back Liverpool to cover and earn the same three points they did against Brighton at the end of the 2017/18 season.
Watford v Crystal Palace Pick: This does look an intriguing live Premier League game on Sunday afternoon with two teams who have made positive starts to the new season.
Watford have really impressed in beating Brighton and Burnley and they look like a side that is going to have plenty to avoid relegation. Creating chances and limiting the threat posed by opponents means Watford have been well deserved of the six points they have earned and they will come into this one with confidence.
They may not have the greatest home record against Crystal Palace in recent years, but the first couple of games suggest they can break that run. 3 of the last 4 games at Vicarage Road between these clubs have ended in draws, but Watford might be playing at the top of their level right now which makes them hard to oppose.
I have plenty of respect for Roy Hodgson and his Crystal Palace team too having already won at Fulham this season and having won 3 of their last 5 away Premier League games. The counter attacking nature of this team certainly makes them look one that can be very effective on their travels and Watford will have to respect that.
However I think Crystal Palace were a touch fortunate to win at Fulham with the home team missing a number of chances and The Eagles taking the opportunities that came their way. They have a player who can take his limited chances in Wilfried Zaha and that makes Crystal Palace dangerous, but Watford look to be in the better form to open the season and with home advantage I give them the edge.
The 7 game home run without a win over Crystal Palace is a concern, but I will back Watford on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' market. They have created much more than Crystal Palace and they have looked the more secure in defensive positions in the early part of the Premier League season and I will look for them to continue their run and take a huge step towards the 40 point mark they aim for every season and all before we complete the first month of the 2018/19 campaign.
Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: The second live game on Sunday afternoon from the Premier League is one that has taken on something of epic proportions for Chelsea fans with the struggles their team have had at St James' Park over the years. Even Championship winning teams have struggled to find their best form at this ground, but the current Chelsea team may not have a better chance to snap a poor run of 5 visits without a win and knowing 4 of those have ended in losses.
Newcastle United will be kicking themselves for not winning at Cardiff City last weekend and Rafa Benitez continues to voice his disappointment of the lack of funds available to him. There is nothing he can do until January, but Newcastle United might need some of the strong management the Spaniard has shown to make sure they are not in a perilous position when the next transfer window opens.
The big question for this Newcastle United team is whether they can find enough goals to avoid being dragged into a relegation battle. The signing of Solomon Rondon isn't exactly one that has the fans whetting their appetite for an avalanche of goals, but this team have created the chance to have scored more than the single goal managed in the first two League games.
With a Chelsea team still learning what is required of them by their new manager there will be chances for Newcastle United. Chelsea have struggled defensively at times and Maurizio Sarri will insist his team continue to take some chances by building from the back so the home team here should have opportunities.
However the bigger issue for Rafa Benitez is making sure his team are much better defensively than they have been. The 47 goals conceded last season were the 7th best in the Premier League and that is a key foundation from which Newcastle United can build and earn the points they need to avoid relegation.
The first two performances have not indicated Newcastle United will be as strong defensively as they were last season and that is a worry against a Sarri led Chelsea. As much as The Blues need to improve at the back, they have looked threatening going forward and have the attacking options to cause plenty of problems on a ground where they have struggled.
That was factored in and prevented me from being too confident in taking Newcastle United with the start on the Asian Handicap. The one goal start could lead to a push at best, but these two teams look capable of creating chances in this League game and pushes me towards at least three goals being shared out.
All 3 games between Chelsea and Newcastle United hit that number in the 2017/18 season, while 5 of the last 6 at St James' Park have seen at least three goals shared out between these teams. With the attackers likely to have the better of the defenders in this one, I will back at least three goals to be scored in the second of the live offerings from Sunday afternoon.
Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: We have already seen matches involving the top six teams from last season facing one another, but this is the first time two of the four Champions League entrants will play one another in the new season.
Tottenham Hotspur come into this fixture on Bank Holiday Monday in the better form having won back to back Premier League games to open the season. They will know the challenge is to step up when they face the top six clubs though as Tottenham Hotspur have won 1 of their last 10 away games at the current top teams in England of Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal.
It could be said that Tottenham Hotspur couldn't pick a better time to visit Manchester United having lost 4 in a row at Old Trafford especially with the dark clouds that have gathered over this part of Salford.
Those clouds could be broken by the rumoured plane that is going to be carrying an anti-Ed Woodward message on Monday evening as the fans have stuck behind manager Jose Mourinho. The battle lines look to have been drawn up between Woodward, Mourinho and Paul Pogba and there is a fear that it is all going to come crashing down and ruin Manchester United's season before it has really begun.
The 3-2 defeat at Brighton was really disappointing in terms of the performance produced by Manchester United and the mistakes they made at the back were extremely costly. They can't afford to do that against Tottenham Hotspur but Manchester United have stepped up when they have faced the better teams in the Premier League and I do think we see a reaction here.
Manchester United have only lost to Manchester City out of the top six clubs in each of the last two seasons at Old Trafford. Take out the current Champions and Manchester United have actually won 6 of 8 games against Liverpool, Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal at Old Trafford over the last couple of seasons and they also beat Spurs in the FA Cup Semi Final.
That is a positive and the slightly longer time Mourinho will have had to work with his players should produce a positive and also see some key players return. I wouldn't be surprised if Nemanja Matic is fit to give the midfield better balance and the return of Jesse Lingard to the starting line up to replace Juan Mata should be a positive from the attacking point of view.
Defensively United can't be as bad as they were at the Amex Stadium and the players do tend to produce better performances against the better teams. Last season they won 6 of 10 Premier League games against the top six clubs and I am not of the belief the players have downed tools on the manager.
Last weekend Paul Pogba questioned his own attitude as well as that of his team-mates and I think that would have been worked on all week. With Tottenham Hotspur's relatively poor record against the top teams I do think Manchester United look a big price to win this one.
However I will back them on the Asian Handicap which is essentially a 'Draw No Bet' selection and look for Manchester United to edge out Tottenham Hotspur again having beaten them 1-0 in each of the last three seasons at Old Trafford in the Premier League.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Everton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cardiff City + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Southampton 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.66 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
August Update: 10-8, + 2.98 Units (36 Units Staked, + 8.28% Yield)
Showing posts with label August 25-27. Show all posts
Showing posts with label August 25-27. Show all posts
Friday, 24 August 2018
Tuesday, 25 August 2015
Midweek Football Picks 2015 (August 25-27)
Wedding season means Sunday night was a bit of write off for me, while Monday was a day of recovery and recuperation from the previous night exploits.
It might be fun times, but it also means the picks come out a little later than normal.
Monaco v Valencia Pick: The Second Leg of the Champions League Play Off ties have produced a number of high-scoring games in recent years much to do with the Knock Out nature of the ties. Teams will be a little more open as they look to get back into games and that is a big issue for Monaco who trail Valencia 3-1 after the First Leg in Spain.
Goals have been a problem for Monaco and this is a team that can't really push the tempo of a game as much as they would like, preferring to play on the counter-attack where possible. They did do it effectively against Young Boys in the Third Qualifying Round, but Valencia are a significant step up in terms of class and Monaco have to be aware that they could be caught on the counter themselves as they look to get back into the tie.
The layers are not really expecting this game to fire into life in terms of goals, but I do think they might be taking a risk with the price being offered for at least three goals being scored. Valencia have the players that can expose any defensive gaps Monaco may leave to get back into the game, while the home side have to attack.
Conceding the first goal might destroy Monaco's confidence of getting through and perhaps see them struggle to motivate themselves to get forward effectively, but the fans should keep the side going forward.
You can understand this game will be a little tense if Monaco score first as they will only need one more goal to progress and might feel they can bide their time. Valencia may then also feel they have something to protect and slow down the entire game, but there were plenty of attempts on goal in the First Leg and I do think the chance of goals has been under-estimated.
Maccabi Tel Aviv v Basel Pick: Two late goals in the First Leg first shifted this tie in favour of Basel before the momentum moved back towards Maccabi Tel Aviv, but both clubs will know there is all to play for in this Second Leg.
Confidence should be high in both camps and I think this is going to lead to an exciting game in Tel Aviv with the opportunity for goals really coming to the fore. Maccabi Tel Aviv have goals in the team, although they don't have to push too many men forward early in the game as they have the two away goals which means a low scoring draw is good enough to progress.
However, they are facing a Basel team which has shown they are very confident away from home and the 1-3 win at Lech Poznan looked highly impressive. Basel have scored at least three goals in each of their five away games this season and that high production rate has led to three wins so they won't be heading to Israel thinking they are out of this tie.
With only one clean sheet in those five games, Basel will be put under pressure by Maccabi Tel Aviv too and spaces could open up as one of the teams begin to chase the game in the second half. The teams both should create chances in this one and this may be another of the Second Leg ties this week that produces at least three goals.
Malmo v Celtic Pick: The late goal for Malmo in the First Leg could be absolutely critical in determining whether the Swedish or Scottish Champions get into the Champions League Group Stage. Instead of a 3-1 deficit which would have made Celtic a fairly strong favourite to progress, Malmo know a narrow home win is enough to see them into the Group Stage for the second season in a row.
Experiences of overcoming First Leg defeats away from home also gives Malmo the confidence to get this done and overturn the defeat in Glasgow. Over the last two seasons, Malmo have beaten Sparta Prague and Salzburg twice following defeats in the First Leg away from home and two of those ties saw Malmo two goals behind in the First Leg.
Malmo have won 4 in a row at home in all competitions and have scored at least two goals in each of those games so there will be the belief that Malmo can do enough to put themselves in a position to move past Celtic.
You can't underestimate the heart that Celtic have shown in losing just 1 of their last 5 away games in the Champions League, including going unbeaten in their 2 away ties this season. However, winning games has been more of a problem for Celtic and it is hard to see them sitting back and being able to defend the lead they have from the First Leg.
It does feel that Malmo are being offered at a very generous price to win this game when you think they have won 4 of their last 7 home games in the Champions League. They have beaten Sparta Prague and Salzburg, two teams that would be favoured to beat Celtic, as well as a powerhouse in Olympiacos in the Group Stage. Defeats to Atletico Madrid and Juventus are very understandable and Malmo do look a big price to win the Second Leg in all honesty.
Goals should also be in play in this one as teams perhaps open up to chase the game depending on the situation, but I think backing Malmo to win the game looks too big a price to ignore.
Club Brugge v Manchester United Pick: The late goal from Marouane Fellaini in the First Leg looks like it had knocked the stuffing out of Michel Preud'homme in his post-game interview. There wasn't a lot of belief from the manager that Club Brugge can overcome all the injuries in the squad and the two goal deficit in the Second Leg, but Manchester United can't take anything for granted as an early goal for the home team will shift the pressure markedly.
It was an early goal for Club Brugge in the First Leg that stunned Manchester United and the Belgian side looked a threat on the break with the pace they have. However, the situation has changed and I expect Manchester United to make sure there is no space for that threat to develop in the Second Leg, while also trying to hit Club Brugge on the break when they push on looking for the goals to get back into the tie.
This is a team that Louis Van Gaal will have respect for having noted they have scored at least twice in each of their three home games this season and also beat Panathinaikos 3-0 in the Third Qualifying Round. Club Brugge are unbeaten in 10 European games at home and their experience of reaching the last eight in the Europa League but they have to show the right balance to get back into this tie and I think that is where Manchester United can take advantage.
For the most part this season, Manchester United have defended well and doing that will put them in a strong position to get through what can be a difficult Second Leg. As Club Brugge perhaps get a little desperate to find a way back in, I think the likes of Memphis Depay can offer Manchester United a real chance to exploit gaps that may open up and perhaps win the Second Leg too.
It won't be easy and there will be some really difficult moments, but Manchester United can book their place in the Group Stage with a narrow win in Belgium despite a poor recent record away from home in the Champions League.
CSKA Moscow v Sporting Lisbon Pick: The First Leg of this tie was an entertaining game that saw both teams have their chances, but it was Sporting Lisbon who have managed to head to Russia for the Second Leg with a narrow advantage.
The tie is far from over at 2-1, especially when you think Sporting Lisbon have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in European competition, although it is an intriguing Second Leg because of CSKA Moscow's failures to get the job done at home. That was shown up in the Third Qualifying Round when CSKA Moscow had to settle for a 2-2 home draw with Sparta Prague despite leading twice and it does point to the fact we could see goals in the Second Leg to match the First Leg.
5 of the last 7 CSKA Moscow home games in the Champions League have featured at least three goals as they have continued to show defensive vulnerabilities. Sporting Lisbon last season saw 2 of their 3 away games in the Champions League also end with at least three goals shared by the teams and they scored in all 3 away games in the competition.
The situation of this tie is likely going to see some spaces open up as the game goes on and I think both teams are likely going to score in this one. I would not be surprised at all if it was to go into extra time and perhaps penalties, but it is finely balanced and really could go either way. However, it looks like a game that will provide goals for the neutrals and I will back this Second Leg to feature at least three goals too.
AZ Alkmaar v Astra Pick: Both AZ Alkmaar and Astra have shown they are very good in front of goal in the early stages of their seasons, although AZ Alkmaar have failed to score in their last couple of home games in the Dutch Eredivisie.
The team they are facing have conceded plenty of goals though and Astra are unlikely to sit back and look to defend a 3-2 lead from the First Leg. They showed they are capable of scoring goals away from home even when they have gone up to the Europa League level and Astra have scored in all 7 away games in this competition since the beginning of last season.
However, it has to be pointed out that they have conceded at least twice in 5 of those 7 games too and so AZ Alkmaar will believe they will get the chances to get back into this tie in the Second Leg.
An early goal could again this spark a match between these two to life and there will likely be chances for one of the teams when the match becomes stretched in the second half. Either way, it does make the over 2.5 goals option look the call in this Second Leg at fairly generous odds.
Fenerbahce v Atromitos Athens Pick: The goal scored by Robin Van Persie has given Fenerbahce the edge in this tie and I do expect them to complete the job in Istanbul.
As solid as Atromitos Athens have been in recent weeks, the majority of their successes have come at home and being defeated there in the First Leg gives them a mountain to climb. However, over the last three seasons Atromitos Athens have won 3 away ties in a row and they have scored the goals that would see them progress from this tie if they can manage to do that again.
However, Fenerbahce are a much tougher side than AZ Alkmaar, Sarajevo or AIK and it will be difficult for Atromitos Athens in the atmosphere they are likely to face. Fenerbahce couldn't get the win over Shakhtar Donetsk in the First Leg of their Champions League tie against them at home, but they had won 4 of 6 home games in European competition prior to that.
If Atromitos Athens start pushing forward to get back in the tie, Fenerbahce should be able to pick them off and win this game by a couple of goals and move into the Group Stage.
Panathinaikos v Qabala Pick: The goalless draw in Baku last week has given Panathinaikos every chance to progress to the Group Stage of the Europa League as they did twelve months ago.
The poor form at home in European competition has to be a worry for Panathinaikos, but the game against Qabala is one they will be expecting to win. They showed they can battle when they beat Club Brugge despite playing with ten men for much of that game and the Greek side should have the quality in the final third to see off their Azerbaijan opponents.
Teams who perform well in their domestic League don't always have the quality to bridge the gap once they get into European competition and that is an issue for Qabala. They had lost all 3 away games in the Europa League over the last fourteen months before a late equaliser at Apollon, but the rise in quality they are facing is going to make it very difficult for Qabala.
Panathinaikos should win this one by a couple of goals to move into the Groups.
Salzburg v Dinamo Minsk Pick: A 2-0 defeat in Belarus has put Salzburg on the brink of exiting all European competitions before the end of August and it looks a big task for them to overturn that result in the Second Leg. Salzburg are at home though and they have played very well here in European competition which has seen them win 4 of their last 6 games at home.
The problem for Salzburg is trying to find the balance between attack and defence as a goal for Dinamo Minsk is likely going to be too much to overcome. They can't rush things and get caught, but there are goals in the Salzburg squad and they do have a chance if they can get in front and get the fans behind them.
You have to have a lot of respect for Dinamo Minsk who have been tough to play away from home in the Europa League and won impressively at Fiorentina and Zurich.
They have scored in 6 of their last 7 away games in the Europa League and will be a threat in this Second Leg, but Salzburg can out-score them in this one and I will back them to have a chance to overturn a big deficit and move into the Group Stage.
Midtjylland v Southampton Pick: The First Leg was a tight and tense affair at times because of the lack of confidence that Southampton have been exhibiting, while Midtjylland were comfortable with the away goal they had earned and simply didn't want to lose. The Second Leg is one that many expect will go the same way, but this game could quickly change into a more attacking one if a team has to chase the game and gaps open up.
It also has to be said that Midtjylland have struggled a lot more at home than they have on their travels in recent European games. While they performed well last week in Southampton and won at APOEL, Midtjylland were beaten by APOEL here and last year Panathinaikos won in Denmark in the Play Off Round of the Europa League.
My concern is the lacklustre performances that Southampton have put in over their last three games, especially in the final third where they haven't created the chances they would have wanted. This is clearly a competition that Ronald Koeman is putting significant stock into, but Southampton have to find a way to get the ball into the final third quicker than they have, especially to break down a well organised Midtjylland defence.
However, Southampton had some success in the First Leg in the second half and I do think Midtjylland have had a harder time working the balance out at home where they are expected to attack. Three of their last four home games in European competition have seen at least three goals shared out as Midtjylland have struggled to find the right balance in front of their own fans against better opposition than they have seen in Denmark on a regular basis.
The layers are giving big odds on there being at least three goals in this one and I think there is a chance that this game is perhaps more open than the First Leg. The game should start of tense, but set pieces are a big opportunity for both teams to get going and spaces should open up once the first goal goes in and perhaps offer the opportunity for a big price on goals being taken.
MY PICKS: Monaco-Valencia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maccabi Tel Aviv-Basel Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Malmo @ 2.88 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
CSKA Moscow-Sporting Lisbon Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
AZ Alkmaar-Astra Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fenerbahce - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Panathinaikos - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Salzburg - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Midtjylland-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
August Update: 8-23, - 26.70 Units (61 Units Staked, - 43.77% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
It might be fun times, but it also means the picks come out a little later than normal.
Monaco v Valencia Pick: The Second Leg of the Champions League Play Off ties have produced a number of high-scoring games in recent years much to do with the Knock Out nature of the ties. Teams will be a little more open as they look to get back into games and that is a big issue for Monaco who trail Valencia 3-1 after the First Leg in Spain.
Goals have been a problem for Monaco and this is a team that can't really push the tempo of a game as much as they would like, preferring to play on the counter-attack where possible. They did do it effectively against Young Boys in the Third Qualifying Round, but Valencia are a significant step up in terms of class and Monaco have to be aware that they could be caught on the counter themselves as they look to get back into the tie.
The layers are not really expecting this game to fire into life in terms of goals, but I do think they might be taking a risk with the price being offered for at least three goals being scored. Valencia have the players that can expose any defensive gaps Monaco may leave to get back into the game, while the home side have to attack.
Conceding the first goal might destroy Monaco's confidence of getting through and perhaps see them struggle to motivate themselves to get forward effectively, but the fans should keep the side going forward.
You can understand this game will be a little tense if Monaco score first as they will only need one more goal to progress and might feel they can bide their time. Valencia may then also feel they have something to protect and slow down the entire game, but there were plenty of attempts on goal in the First Leg and I do think the chance of goals has been under-estimated.
Maccabi Tel Aviv v Basel Pick: Two late goals in the First Leg first shifted this tie in favour of Basel before the momentum moved back towards Maccabi Tel Aviv, but both clubs will know there is all to play for in this Second Leg.
Confidence should be high in both camps and I think this is going to lead to an exciting game in Tel Aviv with the opportunity for goals really coming to the fore. Maccabi Tel Aviv have goals in the team, although they don't have to push too many men forward early in the game as they have the two away goals which means a low scoring draw is good enough to progress.
However, they are facing a Basel team which has shown they are very confident away from home and the 1-3 win at Lech Poznan looked highly impressive. Basel have scored at least three goals in each of their five away games this season and that high production rate has led to three wins so they won't be heading to Israel thinking they are out of this tie.
With only one clean sheet in those five games, Basel will be put under pressure by Maccabi Tel Aviv too and spaces could open up as one of the teams begin to chase the game in the second half. The teams both should create chances in this one and this may be another of the Second Leg ties this week that produces at least three goals.
Malmo v Celtic Pick: The late goal for Malmo in the First Leg could be absolutely critical in determining whether the Swedish or Scottish Champions get into the Champions League Group Stage. Instead of a 3-1 deficit which would have made Celtic a fairly strong favourite to progress, Malmo know a narrow home win is enough to see them into the Group Stage for the second season in a row.
Experiences of overcoming First Leg defeats away from home also gives Malmo the confidence to get this done and overturn the defeat in Glasgow. Over the last two seasons, Malmo have beaten Sparta Prague and Salzburg twice following defeats in the First Leg away from home and two of those ties saw Malmo two goals behind in the First Leg.
Malmo have won 4 in a row at home in all competitions and have scored at least two goals in each of those games so there will be the belief that Malmo can do enough to put themselves in a position to move past Celtic.
You can't underestimate the heart that Celtic have shown in losing just 1 of their last 5 away games in the Champions League, including going unbeaten in their 2 away ties this season. However, winning games has been more of a problem for Celtic and it is hard to see them sitting back and being able to defend the lead they have from the First Leg.
It does feel that Malmo are being offered at a very generous price to win this game when you think they have won 4 of their last 7 home games in the Champions League. They have beaten Sparta Prague and Salzburg, two teams that would be favoured to beat Celtic, as well as a powerhouse in Olympiacos in the Group Stage. Defeats to Atletico Madrid and Juventus are very understandable and Malmo do look a big price to win the Second Leg in all honesty.
Goals should also be in play in this one as teams perhaps open up to chase the game depending on the situation, but I think backing Malmo to win the game looks too big a price to ignore.
Club Brugge v Manchester United Pick: The late goal from Marouane Fellaini in the First Leg looks like it had knocked the stuffing out of Michel Preud'homme in his post-game interview. There wasn't a lot of belief from the manager that Club Brugge can overcome all the injuries in the squad and the two goal deficit in the Second Leg, but Manchester United can't take anything for granted as an early goal for the home team will shift the pressure markedly.
It was an early goal for Club Brugge in the First Leg that stunned Manchester United and the Belgian side looked a threat on the break with the pace they have. However, the situation has changed and I expect Manchester United to make sure there is no space for that threat to develop in the Second Leg, while also trying to hit Club Brugge on the break when they push on looking for the goals to get back into the tie.
This is a team that Louis Van Gaal will have respect for having noted they have scored at least twice in each of their three home games this season and also beat Panathinaikos 3-0 in the Third Qualifying Round. Club Brugge are unbeaten in 10 European games at home and their experience of reaching the last eight in the Europa League but they have to show the right balance to get back into this tie and I think that is where Manchester United can take advantage.
For the most part this season, Manchester United have defended well and doing that will put them in a strong position to get through what can be a difficult Second Leg. As Club Brugge perhaps get a little desperate to find a way back in, I think the likes of Memphis Depay can offer Manchester United a real chance to exploit gaps that may open up and perhaps win the Second Leg too.
It won't be easy and there will be some really difficult moments, but Manchester United can book their place in the Group Stage with a narrow win in Belgium despite a poor recent record away from home in the Champions League.
CSKA Moscow v Sporting Lisbon Pick: The First Leg of this tie was an entertaining game that saw both teams have their chances, but it was Sporting Lisbon who have managed to head to Russia for the Second Leg with a narrow advantage.
The tie is far from over at 2-1, especially when you think Sporting Lisbon have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in European competition, although it is an intriguing Second Leg because of CSKA Moscow's failures to get the job done at home. That was shown up in the Third Qualifying Round when CSKA Moscow had to settle for a 2-2 home draw with Sparta Prague despite leading twice and it does point to the fact we could see goals in the Second Leg to match the First Leg.
5 of the last 7 CSKA Moscow home games in the Champions League have featured at least three goals as they have continued to show defensive vulnerabilities. Sporting Lisbon last season saw 2 of their 3 away games in the Champions League also end with at least three goals shared by the teams and they scored in all 3 away games in the competition.
The situation of this tie is likely going to see some spaces open up as the game goes on and I think both teams are likely going to score in this one. I would not be surprised at all if it was to go into extra time and perhaps penalties, but it is finely balanced and really could go either way. However, it looks like a game that will provide goals for the neutrals and I will back this Second Leg to feature at least three goals too.
AZ Alkmaar v Astra Pick: Both AZ Alkmaar and Astra have shown they are very good in front of goal in the early stages of their seasons, although AZ Alkmaar have failed to score in their last couple of home games in the Dutch Eredivisie.
The team they are facing have conceded plenty of goals though and Astra are unlikely to sit back and look to defend a 3-2 lead from the First Leg. They showed they are capable of scoring goals away from home even when they have gone up to the Europa League level and Astra have scored in all 7 away games in this competition since the beginning of last season.
However, it has to be pointed out that they have conceded at least twice in 5 of those 7 games too and so AZ Alkmaar will believe they will get the chances to get back into this tie in the Second Leg.
An early goal could again this spark a match between these two to life and there will likely be chances for one of the teams when the match becomes stretched in the second half. Either way, it does make the over 2.5 goals option look the call in this Second Leg at fairly generous odds.
Fenerbahce v Atromitos Athens Pick: The goal scored by Robin Van Persie has given Fenerbahce the edge in this tie and I do expect them to complete the job in Istanbul.
As solid as Atromitos Athens have been in recent weeks, the majority of their successes have come at home and being defeated there in the First Leg gives them a mountain to climb. However, over the last three seasons Atromitos Athens have won 3 away ties in a row and they have scored the goals that would see them progress from this tie if they can manage to do that again.
However, Fenerbahce are a much tougher side than AZ Alkmaar, Sarajevo or AIK and it will be difficult for Atromitos Athens in the atmosphere they are likely to face. Fenerbahce couldn't get the win over Shakhtar Donetsk in the First Leg of their Champions League tie against them at home, but they had won 4 of 6 home games in European competition prior to that.
If Atromitos Athens start pushing forward to get back in the tie, Fenerbahce should be able to pick them off and win this game by a couple of goals and move into the Group Stage.
Panathinaikos v Qabala Pick: The goalless draw in Baku last week has given Panathinaikos every chance to progress to the Group Stage of the Europa League as they did twelve months ago.
The poor form at home in European competition has to be a worry for Panathinaikos, but the game against Qabala is one they will be expecting to win. They showed they can battle when they beat Club Brugge despite playing with ten men for much of that game and the Greek side should have the quality in the final third to see off their Azerbaijan opponents.
Teams who perform well in their domestic League don't always have the quality to bridge the gap once they get into European competition and that is an issue for Qabala. They had lost all 3 away games in the Europa League over the last fourteen months before a late equaliser at Apollon, but the rise in quality they are facing is going to make it very difficult for Qabala.
Panathinaikos should win this one by a couple of goals to move into the Groups.
Salzburg v Dinamo Minsk Pick: A 2-0 defeat in Belarus has put Salzburg on the brink of exiting all European competitions before the end of August and it looks a big task for them to overturn that result in the Second Leg. Salzburg are at home though and they have played very well here in European competition which has seen them win 4 of their last 6 games at home.
The problem for Salzburg is trying to find the balance between attack and defence as a goal for Dinamo Minsk is likely going to be too much to overcome. They can't rush things and get caught, but there are goals in the Salzburg squad and they do have a chance if they can get in front and get the fans behind them.
You have to have a lot of respect for Dinamo Minsk who have been tough to play away from home in the Europa League and won impressively at Fiorentina and Zurich.
They have scored in 6 of their last 7 away games in the Europa League and will be a threat in this Second Leg, but Salzburg can out-score them in this one and I will back them to have a chance to overturn a big deficit and move into the Group Stage.
Midtjylland v Southampton Pick: The First Leg was a tight and tense affair at times because of the lack of confidence that Southampton have been exhibiting, while Midtjylland were comfortable with the away goal they had earned and simply didn't want to lose. The Second Leg is one that many expect will go the same way, but this game could quickly change into a more attacking one if a team has to chase the game and gaps open up.
It also has to be said that Midtjylland have struggled a lot more at home than they have on their travels in recent European games. While they performed well last week in Southampton and won at APOEL, Midtjylland were beaten by APOEL here and last year Panathinaikos won in Denmark in the Play Off Round of the Europa League.
My concern is the lacklustre performances that Southampton have put in over their last three games, especially in the final third where they haven't created the chances they would have wanted. This is clearly a competition that Ronald Koeman is putting significant stock into, but Southampton have to find a way to get the ball into the final third quicker than they have, especially to break down a well organised Midtjylland defence.
However, Southampton had some success in the First Leg in the second half and I do think Midtjylland have had a harder time working the balance out at home where they are expected to attack. Three of their last four home games in European competition have seen at least three goals shared out as Midtjylland have struggled to find the right balance in front of their own fans against better opposition than they have seen in Denmark on a regular basis.
The layers are giving big odds on there being at least three goals in this one and I think there is a chance that this game is perhaps more open than the First Leg. The game should start of tense, but set pieces are a big opportunity for both teams to get going and spaces should open up once the first goal goes in and perhaps offer the opportunity for a big price on goals being taken.
MY PICKS: Monaco-Valencia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maccabi Tel Aviv-Basel Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Malmo @ 2.88 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
CSKA Moscow-Sporting Lisbon Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
AZ Alkmaar-Astra Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Fenerbahce - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Panathinaikos - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Salzburg - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Midtjylland-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
August Update: 8-23, - 26.70 Units (61 Units Staked, - 43.77% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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