Midweek Football Picks 2017 (August 22-24)

We are into the final week of domestic football around the European Leagues with the next set of World Cup Qualifiers beginning at the end of the month.

Some teams will be desperate to put a win or two on the board to build some momentum, while others want to put an exclamation mark at the end of fixtures for the month.

This week we have the Second Round of the English League Cup being played as well as the Second Legs of the Champions League and Europa League Play Off Rounds. That means the excitement should be building for the Group Stage draw for the two competitions as the top teams begin to plan out the next three months of playing domestic and European football side by side.

As a Manchester United fan of course the excitement is being back in the Champions League with the team secured in the second pot for the draw. That means there is a chance of landing one of the big Champions from the top European Leagues, but importantly United will get a chance to avoid the likes of Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain who all join the team in the second pot.

It could have been a really tough draw if United had slipped into the third pot, but that fate has been left to Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool, if they complete their win over Hoffenheim.

I am looking forward to that on Thursday night, but before we get to the Champions League draw there are plenty of football matches to get through this week.

The weekend proved to be a really difficult one for the football picks but early in the season that can happen. There are still a couple of big weeks to go this week which can turn things around and hopefully that will begin this week with the Champions League, Europa League and League Cup Second Round matches to be played.

Astana v Celtic Pick: As an actual competitive tie, you would have to think Celtic’s 5-0 home win over Astana has given them more than one foot into the Group Stage of the Champions League this season. There is still the Second Leg to be played, but Celtic simply haven’t been beaten by this kind of margin too often in their history and Astana are not Barcelona (who did beat Celtic 7-0 at the Nou Camp last season).

Pride is about all that is at stake for Astana who are unbeaten in 19 home games in all competitions and in their last 14 home European ties as they get set to enter the Europa League Group Stage. They will want to show they are better than the performance at Celtic Park six days ago, but the chance of turning this tie in their favour looks long gone.

Despite the defensive injuries that Celtic have been dealing with, Brendan Rodgers has shown he can put together a solid enough team to make life difficult for Astana. There is almost no need for Celtic to come out of a tough defensive shell in this one and try and hit Astana on the counter attack, and that may make for a tight Second Leg.

I do think Rodgers will make changes to his starting eleven to keep players fresh even at this early stage of a new season. His approach away from home in the Champions League over the last thirteen months has been good enough to help Celtic make it into the Group Stage two years in a row and it would be a surprise if he changes that.

Since Rodgers has come in, Celtic have suffered narrow defeats at Lincoln Red Imps and Hapoel Be’er Sheva, drawn 1-1 at Astana, Borussia Monchengladbach and Manchester City, and then beaten Linfield and Rosenborg without conceding.

Goals have been in short supply in those games for both Celtic and the opposition with the game at Barcelona the exception to the rule. Only once in the 7 games mentioned above have Celtic conceded more than a single goal away from home, while they haven’t been as free-scoring as they are in Scotland with only one of those games seeing Celtic score more than once.

With the tie in the position it is, I don’t think Celtic will take too many risks and Rodgers will look to make his side tough to beat and hit Astana on the counter. Of course there is a chance Astana leave gaps late in the game that can be exploited, but they have shown they have been tough to beat at home in European competition.

Goals have been at a premium in Celtic away European games under Rodgers, while 5 of the last 7 Astana home European games have seen more than two goals shared out. The layers may have overestimated this Second Leg following the trend of the first and I will look for fewer than three goals shared out in the Kazakhstan capital at a decent price.

Nice v Napoli Pick: Go back a few years and backing an Italian side away from home in a European game they didn’t need to win would have been a foolish decision. However I think the Italian mindset is much more positive these days and no team underlines that point more than Napoli who are fantastic to watch going forward.

In all honesty Nice may just be glad to get back home only 2-0 down in this tie having been outplayed for long periods last week in Naples. Poor finishing cost Napoli a bigger lead, but they will be all the better having had two games under their belt before the Second Leg on Tuesday.

The winning momentum has continued for Napoli who have won both games played this season to make it 7 in a row in all competitions going back to the end of the 2016/17 campaign. That is a huge positive for Napoli who have the pace and precision in the final third to punish their hosts once Nice get into a position where they have to chase the game.

All respect has to be given to Nice having finished behind Monaco and Paris Saint-Germain last season, but they have not opened this season in good form. Snapping an 8 game run without a win with a 2-0 win over Guingamp here this weekend will help the players, but Napoli are far better than Guingamp and very dangerous in the final third.

I will admit I thought Napoli may be priced up at odds against here, but Nice’s form has contributed to the price. Chasing the deficit is likely to occur at some point and Napoli have won 5 of their last 8 away European ties to show they do have what it takes to win on the road.

The exceptions have been losses in Villarreal and Real Madrid and a draw in Besiktas in that time, but all three of those sides would be considered superior to this Nice one. Wins in Dynamo Kiev and Benfica in the Champions League Group Stage last season shows what Napoli can do and I am going to look for them to punish Nice on the counter attack and help themselves to a third consecutive win to open the new campaign.

Sevilla v Istanbul Basaksehir Pick: When this tie was drawn in the Champions League Play Off Round, it felt that the First Leg in Turkey was going to be the key for Istanbul Basaksehir if they wanted to stun Sevilla and make it through to the Champions League Group Stage. The 1-2 home loss in a rainstorm has put the Turkish club in an incredibly difficult position even if Sevilla don’t look as strong as last season.

The experiences Sevilla have had helped in dealing with the conditions last week and being at home should give them a clear advantage. The onus is on Istanbul Basaksehir to search for at least two goals to give themselves a chance and that should play into the hands of the hosts.

Key players and Jorge Sampaoli have departed Sevilla this summer and the 1-1 home draw with Espanyol perhaps underlines what is expected to be a tougher season than they have experienced for some time. However they showed they still have enough quality in the final third to hurt Istanbul Basaksehir who come into this one having conceded three goals in both away games played this season.

At some point Istanbul Basaksehir have to take a risk and I think that is when Sevilla will begin to pick them off and create chances to win the Second Leg. Istanbul Basaksehir showed enough last week to think they could be a threat if Sevilla are a little complacent, but I think Sevilla have enough experience in recent years to know how to handle the lead they have.

Sevilla have won 4 of their last 5 home European ties and I think they may be able to pick Istanbul Basaksehir off the longer the game goes on. That should give them every chance to cover the Asian Handicap on their way to the Champions League Group Stage draw on Thursday.

CSKA Moscow v Young Boys Pick: Since reaching the Last 16 of the 2011/12 Champions League competition, CSKA Moscow will be looking for a fifth consecutive Group Stage appearance. The last four have proven too difficult for CSKA Moscow who have finished 4th in their Group each time, but they have made it through the Qualifiers before and look set to do that again this season.

A 0-1 win in Switzerland puts CSKA Moscow in a commanding position in this Play Off Round tie and they get set to host Young Boys on Wednesday. Recent home games in the Champions League have not been the best for CSKA Moscow, but the majority of those have been played against teams considerably stronger than the opposition they will be facing in the Second Leg.

Young Boys have plenty of experience in their third straight year in the Champions League Qualifiers and aggregate wins over Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kiev deserve the respect they should get. However in both ties Young Boys overturned First Leg away deficits to get past the Ukrainian teams and things are different having lost the home Leg of this tie.

This is simply not a team who has travelled well in Europe with Young Boys losing 7 of their last 9 away European ties. That includes heavy losses in their last 5 away Champions League ties where they have conceded at least twice in each.

In this one Young Boys don’t have to rush to look for the away goal they gave up last week, but I do think at some stage they will have to commit men forward. That is because I believe CSKA Moscow will have the majority of the play considering they have been better at home.

CSKA Moscow did have to ride out the storm in Switzerland and perhaps are fortunate to be in front, but now they are there I do think they complete the aggregate win on Wednesday. There could be chances to win the game late on as Young Boys are perhaps pushed into a position to chase the game and I will look for CSKA Moscow to secure a second straight Qualifier win by being victorious in both Legs.

Liverpool v Hoffenheim Pick: A 1-2 away win in a European knock out tie is a very positive result and one that will give the returning home team every belief they have one foot in the next Round. However Liverpool will know it could have been all so different in Hoffenheim last week and Jurgen Klopp will have to ensure there is no complacency in the squad.

Hoffenheim missed an early penalty and then had the bulk of the first half chances but could not show the composure in front of goal they needed. Liverpool were much more clinical and they will appreciate their position as Hoffenheim can’t really afford to dig in at Anfield for the same length of time Crystal Palace were able to on Saturday.

At some point Hoffenheim have to find at least two goals to give themselves a chance, but there has to be a concern with the high line played last week. A similar line may give the likes of Mohammad Salah, Sadio Mane, Robert Firmino and possibly Daniel Sturridge plenty of room in which to operate and create chances.

Once Liverpool got in front last week they did look dangerous when going forward and I think that will be a real problem for Hoffenheim in the Second Leg. With the positive approach, Liverpool can play with the pace in the final third to expose their visitors and I do think the English club are going to be too strong.

It was the home form that helped Hoffenheim reach the Champions League Qualifiers with their 4th placed finish in the Bundesliga, so losing 1-2 at home is a huge blow for their chances. As much as you can point out Hoffenheim having the 3rd best away record in Germany last season, you can’t ignore they won just 5 of 17 away games.

Only 1 of those came against a team that finished in the top 7 in the Bundesliga and 2 of their 4 away League defeats came against teams that finished above them.

Liverpool may be missing Philippe Coutinho, but they have tended to play well against the top clubs. Last season they beat Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City, Arsenal and Everton here with both Chelsea and Manchester United escaping with draws. That shows how tough it will be for Hoffenheim who I believe missed their only real chance in the tie in the First Leg last week.

As Hoffenheim get a little desperate, Liverpool’s pace in the final third can exploit spaces as they began to last week in the First Leg. I think that leads to an impressive Liverpool win on the evening and gives them momentum to take into the big Premier League game against Arsenal on Sunday.

Accrington Stanley v West Brom Pick: Anyone who invests too much of their bank on the League Cup early Rounds has to question themselves with the uncertainty surrounding team selection throughout the Leagues a minefield to negotiate.

However I do think a small interest is warranted on an in-form Accrington Stanley side with the start on the Asian Handicap against the hot starting Baggies from the Premier League. The back to back wins for West Brom seems to have heavily influenced the price here as they look plenty short to win considering Tony Pulis’ previous lack of success in the Cup competitions.

He did reach the FA Cup Final with Stoke City in 2011, but generally Pulis’ aim is to make sure his players are ready to compete in the Premier League and get to the 40 point mark. The League Cup is a distraction early in the season for the manager and last season Northampton Town from League One beat West Brom in this Round.

Accrington Stanley also put pay to Burnley this time last season and have beaten 3 teams from higher Divisions at home in the League Cup over the last twelve months. That includes a win over Preston North End in the First Round and I think the home side can make life difficult for West Brom.

I might be being a little disrespectful to the Pulis League Cup record at his last three clubs, but I have no doubt the fixture against Stoke City on Sunday is taking priority. With Accrington Stanley scoring goals for fun at home, I will look for the League Two club to keep this competitive but restrict stakes to a minimum unit.

Brighton v Barnet Pick: There looks to be little doubt that Chris Hughton will be making wholesale changes to his Brighton team with the Premier League taking priority over any potential League Cup run. However that doesn't mean Hughton is going to be willing to throw away this competition, while the fringe players who get an opportunity have to take this chance to show they are good enough to be considered for Premier League starts.

Brighton are in a position where they will be keen to put a first win on the board in the 2017/18 season and try to use that to build some momentum. Lose this and then the tough game at Watford will be one that Brighton wouldn't be able to afford to lose and head into the international break with a poor August behind them.

On the other hand Brighton have to think a win here may give them squad a confidence boost before the trip to Vicarage Road.

Playing lower League opposition at home will give Brighton every chance to put their first win on the board even if the wide changes are made to the starting eleven. Barnet have made a decent start to the season which will give them belief, but they are a League Two club who struggled in 2017 before this month.

This is a team that has lost plenty of games away from home in recent months and I think Barnet may struggle to just cope with a squad of players that is at the very least a strong Championship one. If they were home perhaps Barnet could have sprung a surprise, but being at the Amex Stadium I would expect Brighton to win this one by a couple of goals on the night.

With the changes expected in the home team, I would again keep stakes to a minimum though.

Leeds United v Newport County Pick: A chance to have a really good Cup run is not really what the Leeds United board will be interested in if it affects the way the side perform in the Championship. In previous years that would not be the case, but more and more we have seen the clubs outside the ‘elite’ of English Football decide to rotate squads for these early League Cup Rounds.

That should be the case for both Leeds United and Newport County in this Second Round tie, although the former will make more of those changes than the latter.

It may make Leeds United vulnerable to a surprise defeat, but the squad showed their depth in dismissing Port Vale in the First Round. With an unbeaten run to protect, Thomas Christiansen will be picking a team he believes is capable of winning this match and I think Leeds United may be able to do that.

All credit has to be given to Mike Flynn for engineering an incredible escape from relegation for Newport County at the end of last season. The confidence he has given the players has been evident this month and Newport County did stun Southend United in the First Round.

However this is a much different challenge for Newport County and the additional quality Leeds United have should eventually prevail. I expect Newport County to have their moments, but Leeds United may be able to take control in the second half as they did against Port Vale, and that could see them win this and cover the Asian Handicap.

I would keep stakes to a minimum simply because of the up and down nature of the League Cup, but Leeds United to win by a couple of goals on the night is my selection.

Cheltenham Town v West Ham United Pick: The television cameras will arrive at the LCI Rail Stadium on Wednesday in the hope that they may capture a real 'giant-killing' in the Second Round of the League Cup. The consecutive losses suffered by West Ham United in the Premier League may make them vulnerable, although Cheltenham Town are hardly in the best of form themselves.

However Cheltenham Town had won 4 in a row at home before the loss to Swansea City Under 21 last week and the side will be hoping to expose the unfamiliarity the likely West Ham United starting eleven will have with one another.

Making wholesale changes can be tough, but West Ham United have a deeper squad this season and a strong enough team should still take the field. Slaven Bilic will have read his name being linked with the sack at the London Stadium and he won't want to increase the pressure on himself by being knocked out of the League Cup by a League Two club.

Playing away from home can be difficult, but West Ham United have been one of the better away teams in the Premier League despite the losses suffered so far in August. Against a lower League team West Ham United should be able to produce the first win of the new season and ease some of the pressure on Bilic.

Cheltenham Town will cause problems for the Premier League club, but I think eventually West Ham United will have too much and I will have a small interest in them winning and covering the Asian Handicap.

Huddersfield Town v Rotherham United Pick: Four months ago Rotherham United and Huddersfield Town were playing in the same Division, but one was promoted and one relegated at the end of the 2016/17 season.

It is the promoted team, Huddersfield Town, who will get to host this Second Round League Cup tie and David Wagner has made it clear that he would like to have a Cup run or two this season. While I expect changes to the starting eleven, Wagner should have a decent team out on the field and one who should be confident of getting past Rotherham United.

The Millers have been really poor away from home at the beginning of this season to continue from where they left off last season. While Rotherham United can play with a little less pressure away at a Premier League club, I think the difference in quality will be telling and Huddersfield Town can make it three wins in a row.

The changes expected to David Wagner's starting line up is an obvious concern, so keep stakes to a minimum. However I do think Huddersfield Town can cover the Asian Handicap in their move through to the Third Round.


Dynamo Kiev v Maritimo Pick: The goalless draw in Portugal was almost ideal for Dynamo Kiev who would have preferred to have earned an away goal, but who are in control of the tie in general. The expectation is that Dynamo Kiev will prove too strong in the Second Leg as they return home where they have been a strong team to open the new season.

The side have won all 5 games played here in all competitions and Dynamo Kiev have scored 17 goals in that time while scoring at least twice in all games and at least three times in their last 4. That goalscoring power is going to be a real concern for Maritimo who have have failed to win any of their last 10 away games in all competitions.

The bigger concern for the Maritimo fans has to be the fact they have scored 5 goals in those 10 games, while they have failed to find the net in 7 of them. That includes both away games played this season and I think Dynamo Kiev will end up having their chances to pull away for another relatively comfortable home win.

Experience is on the side of Dynamo Kiev who have played in the Group Stage of the Champions League in the last two seasons and who have played in one or the other Group Stage in 11 straight seasons. I fully expect them to make that 12 times in a row on Thursday too.

As Maritimo chase the game, I can see Dynamo Kiev proving effective enough on the counter attack to win this one with at least a two goal margin and earn their place in the Group Stage draw which will take place on Friday.


Zenit St Petersburg v Utrecht Pick: The 1-0 loss in the Netherlands makes this a slightly more awkward Second Leg for Zenit St Petersburg having failed to secure an away goal last week. That means Utrecht will feel than an away goal of their own will put them in a very strong position in the tie and leaves things nicely balanced.

Zenit St Petersburg at home are rightly a pretty strong favourite to win when you consider recent European games here as well as their form at home. The home loss in the Third Qualifying Round has to be seen as a blip considering Zenit St Petersburg had a healthy lead from the First Leg, and this is a club with a lot more experience than their visitors.

Not many would have picked Utrecht to get to this stage when paired with Lech Poznan in the Third Qualifying Round and even fewer would have suggested Utrecht as the team to Qualify for the Group Stage. However this is a team who have come together to make a strong start in the Dutch top flight and confidence isn’t an issue.

What is potentially a problem is the lack of recent European experience for the squad of players and dealign with the Second Leg in the right way. While they played well away from home for much of last season, Utrecht were beaten comfortably at PSV, Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar and also conceded three times in a loss in Ajax.

Their hosts are comparable to those teams, including Zenit St Petersburg beating AZ Alkmaar 5-0 here in the Group Stage last season, and I think this might be a test too far for the Dutch club.

Zenit St Petersburg have to find the right balance as they can’t afford to give up an away goal, but I think their European ‘know how’ helps them achieve that. 3 of their 4 home Europa League wins last season came by at least two goals and I will back Zenit St Petersburg to cover the Asian Handicap in this one as they move into the Group Stage.


Athletic Bilbao v Panathinaikos Pick: At 2-0 up and with the game entering the final third, Panathinaikos looked to be in a very strong position to earn arguably their best win in recent European years. Unfortunately for them, the side were unable to cope with the mental pressure that brings and Panathinaikos were beaten 2-3 in Athens by Athletic Bilbao.

That result means it is going to take a special effort for Panathinaikos to turn things around on Thursday and I do think this is a task beyond their capabilities.

The problems come from trying to find the right balance between attack and defence as Panathinaikos need to score at least twice here. Send too many men forward and Athletic Bilbao should be able to pick them off on the counter, but wait too long and this tie may be over before Panathinaikos have really given it a shot to try and get back into things.

It is a difficult position for a manager to be in, especially against an Athletic Bilbao team who have played so well at home. They have won 5 straight home European games and Athletic Bilbao have scored 17 goals in that time which shows how dangerous they can be.

Athletic Bilbao don’t need to win to move into the Group Stage, but Spanish teams tend to play an attacking brand of football and I imagine Athletic Bilbao will do the same. There is every chance they can overwhelm Panathinaikos again, but this time without being 2-0 down before they get going.

I will look for Athletic Bilbao to win this one by a couple of goals and clear the Asian Handicap in the Second Leg.


Shkendija v Milan Pick: The tie is done as a competitive affair but Milan have every chance of making it 4 wins out of 4 in the Europa League against an overmatched Shkendija team.

There will be pride on the line for the home team having been beaten 6-0 in the San Siro last week, but the attention may already have shifted to the Macedonian domestic League where Shkendija may be favourites to win the title.

Shkendija have played well at home and should be backed by a passionate crowd, but on the field I do think they are overmatched. I wouldn't be surprised if Milan give some of their fringe players a chance, but they should still be defensively sound enough to win here and earn another clean sheet too.

That can be backed at odds against and I do think it is worthy of a small interest.

I wouldn't go in much harder than that simply because Milan will likely make changes and have such a lead that there could be some complacency in the performance. They should be too good, but restricting the investment is the smart way forward as Milan earn their place in the Group Stage draw on Friday.


Hajduk Split v Everton Pick: After winning the First Leg 2-0, Ronald Koeman will likely be extremely angry if Everton were to go out before the Europa League Group Stage draw. It will take a professional performance from Everton to make sure they don’t have any hiccups here against a tough Hajduk Split team who likely have a lot more to show than they did last week.

At home Hajduk Split have an 11 game unbeaten run to protect having won 8 of those, while they have won 5 home European games in a row. However Hajduk Split have been beaten in the Play Off Round of the Europa League in the last 3 seasons and they are just 1-1-1 in their home games in that stage of the competition.

The increased level of competition has proven too much for Hajduk Split and they are likely to encounter a well organised Everton team that will look for a killer away goal on the counter attack. There is some pace further up the pitch for Everton, but a lack of goals has been evident so far as they have only scored more than a single goal in 1 of 5 games in all competitions.

That did come against Hajduk Split, but Everton are unlikely to be pushing for a dominant win but instead will want to contain what the home team can do. Defensively Everton have looked sound even though their run of 4 consecutive clean sheets ended at the Etihad Stadium on Monday.

Unfortunately for Hajduk Split, they don’t have the same firepower Manchester City can call upon and I can see Everton being relatively comfortable on the night. Weathering the early storm will be key to take away the players confidence and tone down the supporters, but doing that should give Everton every chance to control the match and ease through.

It should be about being well organised for Everton and doing that should see them come through in a low-scoring game. I will be looking for two or fewer goals to be shared out between the teams in the Second Leg.

MY PICKS: Astana-Celtic Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Napoli @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Sevilla - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

CSKA Moscow @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Liverpool - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Accrington Stanley + 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Brighton - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Leeds United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet365 (1 Unit)

West Ham United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Huddersfield Town - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Dynamo Kiev - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Zenit St Petersburg - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.78 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Athletic Bilbao - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Milan Win to Nil @ 2.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Hajduk Split-Everton Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)

August Update: 17-22, - 8.64 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.5% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (August 15-17)

After what has felt a long wait to bring back Premier League Football, fans all over the country had to be excited about the potential of the season ahead after seeing some of the football played on the opening weekend.

Only Chelsea disappointed out of the leading contenders for the Premier League title, while there is a renewed optimism about being a Manchester United going into the season which will only have increased after the impressive dismantling of West Ham United.

I wrote a short piece about Manchester United and the new season before the weekend and that can be read here.


About the only thing that bothers me about the beginning of the season is the awfully early international break which comes at the end of this month which means a break between Sunday 27th August and Saturday 9th September. Before that we will see the draw for the Champions League/Europa League Group Stage and also the Third Round of the League Cup in England which means the fixture list begins to be filled up going through to the Christmas period.

At least in England we get three rounds of top flight football before the international break, which is far better than Germany, Italy and Spain whose top Divisions begin this weekend and only have the two rounds of games.


It was a mixed bag of results from the weekend football which produced a slight profit, although August has yet to really get going. This midweek we have the First Legs of the Champions League and Europa League Play Off Round ties to be played before we go into the weekend and more Premier League and top flight football.

In this thread I will have picks from the Champions League and Europa League Play Off Round ties which are played from Tuesday through Thursday night.


Hoffenheim v Liverpool Pick: Getting into the Champions League Group Stage is where the financial reward of this competition is really met and next season finishing 4th in the Premier League or Bundesliga will mean direct entry into the Group. That doesn't help either Hoffenheim or Liverpool going into the 2017/18 Champions League as they have to negotiate this Play Off Round if they want to get into the Group Stage which begins next month.

The two Legs over the next week are vital for both clubs although the pressure is likely to be on Liverpool with the past European history they hold. For Hoffenheim this is a maiden European adventure and they will be hoping to build on what was a stunning Bundesliga campaign.

The home Leg is likely to be critical for Hoffenheim having been unbeaten here in the League last season and beating the likes of Bayern Munich in the process. Losing a couple of key players in Niklas Sule and Sebastian Rudy is going to be difficult for Hoffenheim to replace and they are facing someone who will be familiar in their style when Jurgen Klopp brings Liverpool to town.

It is an important First Leg for Liverpool too who have not been at their best in recent away European ties. Things have been much different at Anfield and Liverpool have to come here looking for at least an away goal and making sure they have a slight edge when returning home next week.

It would be a surprise if Liverpool are not able to create chances with the pace they have in the final third and the likely space they are going to see in the away Leg. Liverpool should have a chance to play counter attacking football, although there will be a concern with how they have defended at Vicarage Road on Saturday.

Goals look to be the outcome of this one and I would be a little surprised if there aren't at least three shared out by these two teams. I considered backing Hoffenheim with the start on the Asian Handicap, but the loss of Sule and Rudy means I am less sure about them. However they will have to attack at home and will likely create chances against a Liverpool defence that still needs some work, while the Liverpool pace in the final third is a threat to any club they face.

The layers are of the same mind, but I will back at least three goals to be shared out in this First Leg.


Sporting Lisbon v Steaua Bucharest Pick: After some of the recent defeats Steaua Bucharest have had at this stage of the Champions League, you can understand why Sporting Lisbon are considered such strong favourites to win this Play Off Round tie. Being at home in the First Leg gives Sporting Lisbon the chance to put themselves in a strong position ahead of the trip to Romania next week, but Steaua Bucharest will think their recent experiences in the Qualifiers can help them achieve the upset.

It is asking a lot from Steaua Bucharest, but they have shown some attacking intent when playing away from home in Europe. Earning an away goal here will give Steaua Bucharest a chance in the Second Leg, but the majority of the play is going to come from Sporting Lisbon.

Anything other than a Sporting Lisbon win will be a real surprise, but the Asian Handicap might be a tough one for them to cover. Sporting Lisbon have had 1 clean sheet from their last 8 home European ties although the majority of those games have come against teams that were considered stronger than Steaua Bucharest.

Even with that in mind, Sporting Lisbon may offer Steaua Bucharest some chances in this one, although the home team should have enough in the final third to score the goals to win this one. This is a team that has scored plenty of goals in home European ties against teams outside of the European elite in recent years and I am looking for this Champions League Play Off tie to also produce at least three goals on the night.

Both teams scoring is not of the question in this one, but there is always the possibility that Sporting Lisbon dominate the tie completely and overall it feels like a fixture that will produce at least three goals.


Celtic v Astana Pick: There will be familiarity with this Play Off Round tie in the Champions League having paired Celtic and Astana together twelve months ago in the Third Qualifying Round. On that occasion the Second Leg was played here at Celtic Park, but this time around the teams will meet in Kazakhstan in the Second Leg which does change some of the dynamics of the tie.

It is a big tie for both Celtic and Astana having dominated their domestic League and knowing the financial rewards that come with a place in the Champions League Group Stage. That increases the pressure on both teams and I imagine this is going to be a tight tie over the next two weeks with both Celtic and Astana confident in their chances to progress.

The injuries in the Celtic team have to be a concern when you think how close this tie was twelve months ago. It took an injury time penalty for Celtic to come through 3-2 on aggregate although the players may come in with more confidence than they did back then having played so well in the last twelve months.

Celtic have been very good in home Qualifiers having won 7 in a row before the home draw with Rosenborg in the Third Qualifying Round. They didn't play well in that game, but Celtic have Leigh Griffiths back in contention which should give them better balance going forward.

You have to respect Astana who are going to be playing in the Group Stage of a European competition for the third season in a row which is unprecedented for a side from Kazakhstan. Everything for them depends on the First Leg as they have lost 5 of their last 7 away European ties but at the same time have won 3 of 7 at home against those same teams.

Keeping it tight may be the play for Astana and I imagine they will be looking to frustrate Celtic. They should have some chances considering the injuries Celtic have at the heart of their defence, but I do think Celtic will have the majority of the play on the day and have shown they can pick up some real momentum when playing at home.

It may be a risk when you think how close it was when they played last season, but this time I am looking for Celtic to have enough to win by a couple of goals to put themselves in a strong position ahead of next week. I will back the Scottish Champions to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Maribor Pick: This is a huge Play Off Round tie for both Hapoel Be'er Sheva and Maribor with the carrot of entering the Champions League Group Stage in front of them. Both teams will be going into a section with some huge names from European Football and the chance to host those names will only increase the pressure on the teams in the two ties to be played over the next seven days.

The home Leg is likely to be very important for both teams and I do give Hapoel Be'er Sheva the edge in the First Leg. They have won all 5 home Champions League Qualifiers played over the last thirteen months and the experience of reaching the Europa League Knock Out Round last season will surely help.

By the same token Hapoel Be'er Sheva have not been very good when playing away from home and so they have to have a lead to take to Maribor next week. Maribor have to be given their dues having won both away Champions League Qualifiers this season but they had lost 4 of 7 away European ties prior to this campaign.

The heavy losses at Astana and Qabala have to be a concern though and Hapoel Be'er Sheva have shown they are capable of winning home ties with some comfort. Both Celtic and Ludogorets Razgrad are experienced European teams who have lost by a couple of goals here over the last twelve months and I do think Hapoel Be'er Sheva will win this one.

Backing them to find a way to win by a couple of goals on the day at odds against looks the way to go. Maribor's last 4 away European losses have come by at least two goals each time and I think Hapoel Be'er Sheva will have the majority of the play in this First Leg and create the majority of chances.

Maribor will be looking to be in the tie when the Second Leg is played at their own home next week, but I will look for Hapoel Be'er Sheva to take a big step towards a first appearance in the Champions League Group Stage.


Napoli v Nice Pick: Both Napoli and Nice would have been hoping for an 'easier' Play Off Round tie in the Champions League than the one they have been handed. It is the Italian side who will go into the tie as the favourites to reach the Group Stage, but Nice showed last season that they are able to keep up with the likes of Monaco and Paris Saint-Germain domestically.

However they have made a relatively poor start to the 2017/18 season with no wins from their first 4 games in all competitions and needing a late equaliser in Amsterdam to get the better of Ajax. Back to back defeats to open the League campaign will have dented confidence, although Nice have to hope they can catch Napoli cold in their first game of the new campaign.

That may be a big ask considering how Napoli have kept their squad together this season compared with the last summer transfer window. A squad that knows exactly what is required of them could go very far in Serie A this season and Napoli are filled with goals which will make them dangerous to teams in the Champions League.

Better defensive performances are still required from Napoli if they are going to compete with the very best clubs, but this is a team who will be very good this year. Being at home in the First Leg should give Napoli enough of an advantage to build a lead in this tie before heading to the south of France next week.

With the goals they have in the squad and Nice's early season struggles, I think Nice will be looking to stay in the tie for as long as possible. However they were beaten comfortably in Schalke and Krasnodar away from home last season and I think Napoli will prove too good on the day.

It is a risk backing a team to win with a margin when playing their first game of the season, but I think Napoli have enough goals to have a healthy lead before the Second Leg and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Milan v Shkendija Pick: When I was growing up, the standard setters for the top European clubs came from Italy and the leading team were Milan who won five of their seven European Cups between 1989 and 2007. It is quite strange to see Milan in the Europa League rather than the Champions League and even stranger to think they have not played in Europe at all over the last four years.

Things look to have changed for Milan with new investment in the club which has seen them sign some quality players and be linked with a number more before this transfer window closes. They have improved their League position three years in a row in Italy but it still may take some time to really see Milan restore their name alongside the very best in European Football.

Getting into the Champions League is the goal for the season for Milan, but they won't want to drop the Europa League at this stage of the campaign. Milan were comfortable winners in the Third Qualifying Round and they are big favourites to beat Shkendija in the Play Off Round for a place in the Europa League Group Stage.

Shkendija have won three Qualifying ties in a row for the second season in a row having previously lost all four Qualifying ties in European competition. The step up in class in this Play Off Round is going to be tough to bridge for Shkendija and I think Milan are likely going to win comfortably with a few more of their bigger signings likely to earn a start ahead of the Serie A season beginning.

Covering the Asian Handicap is likely to happen for Milan, but I think the key will be to ensure they don't offer up an away goal and backing the Italian giants to win with a clean sheet is the call.


Ajax v Rosenborg Pick: Both Ajax and Rosenborg will have been hugely disappointed to go out of the Champions League in the Third Qualifying Round but have a chance to make it into the Europa League Group Stage.

Ajax reached the Europa League Final last season so will be hoping for another deep run in the tournament, although they have lost some key players from that squad that reached Stockholm. Home form is going to be critical for Ajax who won all 7 home Europa League games last season, but whose 2-2 draw at the Amsterdam Arena against Nice meant they were beaten on away goals in the Champions League Third Qualifying Round.

There will be confidence in the Ajax ranks that they can win this First Leg at home, especially when you think how difficult things have been for Rosenborg in recent away European ties. Rosenborg were unbeaten in draws at Dundalk and Celtic in the Champions League this season, but previously they had lost 5 away games in a row and that has to be a concern.

You can understand why Ajax are such strong favourites in the First Leg, but this is a team that is going to be missing Davinson Sanchez and may be a little vulnerable defensively. However Ajax will also believe they have the attacking talent to take the game to Rosenborg and this could be one of the higher scoring games in the First Legs of the Europa League Play Off Round.

I do think Rosenborg can play their part too and I will back at least three goals to be shared out by the teams on Thursday.


Osijek v Austria Vienna Pick: You have to imagine both Osijek and Austria Vienna are looking at this tie as a good one in their bid to get into the Europa League Group Stage. Anything other than a close one that is decided next week in Vienna would be a real surprise.

The home Leg is going to be important for both teams and I do think Osijek can force a narrow advantage even if they have to work hard to get it. Playing at home has been important for them so far in the Europa League with 3 straight wins here, including one over PSV Eindhoven, but Osijek may have to raise their game again to get the better of Austria Vienna.

I have to respect the fact that Austria Vienna have won 5 of their last 7 away European ties over the last fourteen months which includes in all 4 Qualifying ties they have played in that time. They have even overcome poor home Legs in that time by winning in Spartak Trnava and AEL Limassol after failing to do that in the home First Leg, while last season 4 of their 5 Group Stage points came on their travels.

That makes Austria Vienna a dangerous team to face for Osijek who are not blessed with a lot of European experience. However the wins over PSV Eindhoven both home and away shows a team that is confident in their own chances and I think Osijek can continue the fine form they have been displaying at the start of the 2017/18 season.

It won't come easy, but Osijek to hold a narrow lead when travelling to the Austrian capital next week is my pick.


Partizan Belgrade v Videoton Pick: It can be difficult for teams to accept that they are not able to match others in Europe despite being one of the best in their domestic League. That is what Partizan Belgrade have had to face in the Champions League, but the Serbia Champions will be favoured to get past Videoton in this Play Off Round Qualifier.

The First Leg in Belgrade is going to be very important for Partizan Belgrade and they did have a long winning run at home snapped in the Champions League by Olympiacos. However the bigger worry may have been the League defeat here by Vozdovac, while they are facing a Videoton team who have gotten the better of Bordeaux in the Europa League already.

Videoton have been one of the better teams in Hungary in recent seasons but they have not worked their way through the Qualifiers to get into the Europa League Group Stage for some time. The win over Bordeaux will give them confidence and the key for Videoton is to still be in the tie when heading back home for the Second Leg next week.

They should be able to do that, although I do think they may be faced with a narrow deficit after the First Leg. Partizan Belgrade tend to play their best football at home and I will be looking for them to find enough in the final third to have a lead in the Second Leg, although Videoton may eventually show a little more to go through to the Group Stage.


Everton v Hajduk Split Pick: At this stage of the season this is far from an easy tie for Everton despite being big favourites to see of Hajduk Split. The new arrivals will take time to gel into a team and Ronald Koeman has previous in failing to get into the Europa League Group Stage when falling short with Southampton.

However Everton are facing a team in Hajduk Split who have found the Play Off Round a little too good for them in each of the last three seasons. They have won plenty of Qualifiers in that time, but dropping out in this Round shows there may be a ceiling as to how strong Hajduk Split can be.

I do think they can make life difficult for an Everton team who have yet to find the fluency they would have liked in the final third. However Everton have also looked decent in defensive positions and will be looking for a fourth straight clean sheet to open the season which will put them in a strong position for the Second Leg in Croatia next week.

Ideally Everton would win this by a couple of goals, but Koeman is still looking to bring in reinforcements in the final third which can make up for the loss of Romelu Lukaku.

Instead Koeman may take a pragmatic approach to the First Leg and ensure Everton at least have a clean sheet which would put them in a strong position for the Second Leg. Having a narrow lead will mean Everton improve their position too and I think that is what they will ultimately have to settle for so I will back Everton to win this one with a clean sheet.

MY PICKS: Hoffenheim-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sporting Lisbon-Steaua Bucharest Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Celtic - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.03 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Hapoel Be'er Sheva - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.09 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Napoli - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Milan Win to Nil @ 1.61 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ajax-Rosenborg Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Osijek @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Partizan Belgrade @ 1.86 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Everton Win to Nil @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

August 2017/18 Update: 8-10-1, - 0.72 Units (25 Units Staked, - 2.88% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2016 (August 23-25)

This week is all about concluding the Qualifiers in the Champions League and Europa League and we will be seeing the Group Stage draws later on. On Thursday evening it will be the Champions League Group Stage that is decided, while the Europa League participants will have to wait until Friday morning.

We also have the Second Round of the English Football League Cup played during the week with the draw for the Third Round expected to be made on Wednesday evening.

This will lead into the final weekend in August of domestic football before a two week break to account for the World Cup Qualifiers.


So far the picks are still in good shape, but it was a difficult weekend with a few upsets and less than exciting matches. Late goals didn't help, but it happens and I am looking for two big threads to give this season a boost at the beginning that I haven't had too often.

Hopefully this midweek selection of games can have the same impact as we saw last week to give me some momentum to take into the final weekend of August.


Monaco v Villarreal Pick: Despite a fairly turbulent summer where expectations might have lessened for Villarreal, I did think they might have won last week to hold a narrow edge over Monaco in the Second Leg. Instead all credit has to be given to Monaco for coming away from Spain with a 1-2 win and that means they are in pole position to make it back to the Champions League Group Stage.

You wouldn't argue with anyone that makes Monaco a fairly strong favourite to do that considering they have been tough to beat at home in recent European games. Monaco have won their last 3 Champions League Qualifiers at home over the last twelve months against the likes of Young Boys, Valencia and Fenerbahce and so playing Villarreal won't hold any fear for them.

They will respect Villarreal who did reach the Semi Final of the Europa League in each of the last two seasons, but there have been some key departures since they finished 4th in the Primera Division in May. This is also a side that haven't been as strong on their travels as they have at home in European games and Villarreal have won just 2 of their last 8 away games in the Europa League.

It really couldn't be much simpler for Villarreal in this Second Leg which should make putting a game plan together a little easier. They have to score at least twice to have any chance of progressing so at some point Villarreal will be willing to take risks to try and be rewarded with a Champions League Group Stage.

For Monaco it is a little more difficult as they try to figure out if they should twist or stick. Two seasons ago they did lose 0-2 at home in the Second Leg of the Second Round meeting with Arsenal after beating The Gunners 1-3 in London, so the victory in Spain is not a guarantee Monaco can progress.

They have shown they can score goals though and Monaco will have some chances of their own in this one as Villarreal come forward in numbers. Monaco have the edge with a slightly more settled mentality coming into the Second Leg and back to back wins will have given them confidence. However I do think Villarreal can create chances too and backing at least three goals to be shared out in the Second Leg like we saw in the First Leg is the call.


Roma v Porto Pick: This Second Leg could not have been more finely balanced after the 1-1 draw in Portugal last week although Porto might feel they should have done better against a Roma team who had been reduced to ten men for much of the game. That result does mean Roma will be going in as favourites to reach the Champions League Group Stage, but they don't have a dominant home record in Europe which keeps this one very interesting.

Porto might not have scored in losses at Chelsea and Borussia Dortmund in their last 2 European away games, but they scored at least twice in their other 2 away games in Europe. On another night Porto might have had a lead to take to Italy if they had taken the chances that did come their way and I can see them causing some problems for Roma again.

However the right team is being favoured as Roma looked very strong last week when the teams both had eleven men on the pitch. The Thomas Vermaelan sending off changed the First Leg, but Roma will believe home advantage can give them the edge in this one.

It should be an entertaining game like the First Leg was.

Roma are not a team that can sit back and hope a clean sheet is enough to put them into the Group Stage, but instead they will look to take the game to Porto as they did last week in Portugal. With Porto needing at least one goal to give themselves a chance to progress to the Group Stage, they will likely send numbers forward in this one and I can see goals being the outcome.

Only 1 of the 4 Roma home games in the Champions League ended with three goals or more being shared out, but there should be enough chances in this one to provide goals in this Second Leg. The 1-1 final score is a real player in this one too, but I think we will see the teams playing with enough confidence and freedom to combine for at least three goals in this huge game.


Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Celtic Pick: Last week was a rollercoaster ride for Brendan Rodgers and his Celtic players and fans in the First Leg as they threw away a 3-0 lead to be pulled back to 3-2. Two late goals have given Celtic the big edge in the tie having won 5-2 at Celtic Park, but Hapoel Be'er Sheva have been talking up a big game heading into the Second Leg.

Goals might be the order of the day in the Second Leg with Hapoel Be'er Sheva forced to go on the attack and Celtic having plenty of counter attacking ability. In 4 of the last 5 Hapoel Be'er Sheva games there have been at least three goals shared out, while Rodgers has been talking up the attacking potential his side have displayed so far.

The last 5 Celtic games have all produced at least three goals but it does have to be noted that only 1 of Celtic's last 6 away games in the Champions League have hit that target. However this is a rare occasion when the Celtic's opponents have to be a little gung-ho in their attacking performance to try and get back into the tie as soon as possible knowing they need to score three times without reply to get them through to the Group Stage.

2 of the 3 Celtic away games in the Europa League Group Stage did see three or more goals shared out and I think that is the most likely situation in this one. There should be plenty of chances at both ends if the First Leg is anything to go by and late goals might be in play when one of the teams are pushing forward in search of goals which leaves them vulnerable to the counter attack.


Legia Warsaw v Dundalk Pick: A late goal in Dublin has given Legia Warsaw a 2-0 lead over Dundalk going into the Second Leg of this Champions League Play Off tie and the Polish side are now in a very strong position to progress to the Group Stage. The run to this Round from Dundalk has come in surprising fashion and a place in the Europa League Group Stage will be the reward for them.

I imagine the dream draw would be to face Manchester United, but Dundalk are not going to roll over and allow Legia Warsaw to embarrass them in the Second Leg. Unfortunately there is a clear difference in quality and even though Legia Warsaw don't need to win this game, I do think they can go on and prove they are the better side.

The recent form displayed by Legia Warsaw has not been the best, but neither have Dundalk and I just think their run has come to an end. They will give plenty of effort and work hard but Dundalk have to also take some risks during the match and I think Legia Warsaw will be able to win this one by a couple of goals.


Burton Albion v Liverpool Pick: The television cameras will arrive at the Pirelli Stadium in anticipation of an upset as Burton Albion look to beat Liverpool in this English Football League Cup Second Round. Nigel Clough has helped his team make a solid start to the new season at the Championship level which is a big leap for Burton Albion who had been playing in the fourth tier just two seasons ago.

Defensively there is room for improvement for Burton Albion, but that same charge can be levelled at the Liverpool first team defence. It is unlikely that Burton Albion will be facing that first team here and that will give them a chance as they have already scored ten goals in five games played this season.

Liverpool will feel they will have their joy going forward too but the five goals conceded by the first choice defence coupled with the changes likely to be made makes Liverpool a vulnerable team here in my opinion.

They look very short in the market when you think how Jurgen Klopp is likely to approach this Second Round game, but I am going to focus on Burton Albion and their chances of scoring at least one goal. This Liverpool defence will be unfamiliar and Burton Albion have been scoring plenty of goals so backing them to score at least once looks a big price.


Chelsea v Bristol Rovers Pick: There will be changes made to the Chelsea first team as Antonio Conte rotates the squad, but the Italian has made it clear he still expects a winning performance on the day. Momentum is the key for Conte who will be looking for two more wins this week which will take Chelsea into September with confidence behind them after a difficult 2015/16 season.

It is a big ask for Bristol Rovers to challenge a Chelsea team from the Premier League when you think this club was in the Conference just two seasons ago. They are another team that have earned back to back promotions to now play at a level which is going to be very challenging for them.

That level is still two below the Premier League and there will be plenty of players in the home team who are trying to show the manager they are perhaps deserving of regular starting places. It should mean Chelsea are plenty motivated when taking to the field for a rare Second Round League Cup game and I think The Blues will be far too strong for Bristol Rovers.

Bristol Rovers have won just 1 of their last 6 away games in either League One or League Two and I think Chelsea will take control as their superior fitness begins to tell. I will back Chelsea to cover this Asian Handicap and move through to the Third Round.


Luton Town v Leeds United Pick: Luton Town showed tremendous character to come from a goal down to beat Championship Aston Villa in the English Football League Cup First Round and their reward is to face another of the big names from that Division. Leeds United are not as strong as Aston Villa on the pitch though and I can see Luton Town perhaps upsetting them, although not convinced enough to back them.

The Leeds United win at Sheffield Wednesday has played a part in that thinking while they have only lost 1 of their last 6 on their travels going back to last season.

Instead of picking a winner, I think these teams can combine for at least three goals as both teams will give this Second Round match a go. 4 of 5 Luton Town games have ended with at least three goals scored this season and they won't be overawed if they fall behind in this one having come back from that deficit to beat Aston Villa.

Leeds United have tended to play higher scoring games away from home over the last twelve months and they have conceded when facing lower League opposition in this Cup in recent seasons. The 1-1 scoreline is the big concern for my pick, but I think we will see a winner in normal time and I believe that will be 2-1 either way.


Millwall v Nottingham Forest Pick: The English Football League Cup can be a difficult competition to read with even teams in the lower Leagues making changes to their starting line ups. That might not be the case for Millwall and Nottingham Forest in this Second Round match and I think both teams will feel they have enough going forward to trouble their opponents.

Britt Assombalonga could be missing for Nottingham Forest who have scored eight goals in two home games in the League, but failed to score in two away games. Nottingham Forest did beat League Two Doncaster Rovers in the First Round of the League Cup, but they conceded in that one too and have yet to keep a clean sheet.

Millwall have scored and conceded in three straight games themselves and I think there is plenty to suggest we will see goals in this one.

The 1-1 scoreline could be a real player, but I am looking for attacking football to be produced by both Millwall and Nottingham Forest which should lead to at least three goals being shared out.


Wolves v Cambridge United Pick: It has been a really poor start to the season for Cambridge United, but they are far from out on contention before the first month of the 2016/17 season is in the books.

For Wolves it has been a surprisingly solid start to the new season and I wouldn't be shocked if both teams are looking ahead to big League games this weekend. However a place in the Third Round of the English Football League Cup is up for grabs along with some of the biggest clubs in English football and home advantage looks very important for Wolves.

I would not be expecting Cambridge United to roll over and they have shown they can compete with Championship clubs after beating Sheffield Wednesday in the First Round. However they have not scored in their last 3 away games and have lost both on their travels this season which is another edge to Wolves.

Wolves have won 3 of their last 4 games to start putting the momentum together and I think they will be too strong on the day and cover the Asian Handicap.


APOEL v Copenhagen Pick: The 1-0 home win for Copenhagen has given them the edge in this Champions League Play Off Round tie, but the layers believe APOEL are the more likely winners of the Second Leg. However I think a small interest on Copenhagen to win in Cyprus has to be taken as I look for them to make the Group Stage with another win under their belt.

Copenhagen have won 3 of their last 4 away games in European football and they are unbeaten in all 11 games they have played in all competitions in the new season. It does have to be said they have not been at their strongest away from home but Copenhagen don't need to win this one and look in stronger shape than APOEL.

There has been a week for APOEL to prepare for this game, but that doesn't take away from the fact they have lost 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions. In the last Round they scored three times in injury time to beat Rosenborg 3-0 here which helped them overturn a First Leg deficit, but anyone who saw that game will tell you that it was much closer than the final scoreline.

In fact it could be argued that Rosenborg had the best chances to win the game and I think Copenhagen can take those chances if they come up again as APOEL push to get back into the tie. APOEL only won 1 of their last 6 home games in European competition last season and they were beaten here by Danish club Midtjylland in the Champions League here last season.

As well as APOEL played in their game against Rosenborg, the feeling was that the Norwegian Champions let themselves down with a lack of composure in front of goal. At a big price I will have a small interest on Copenhagen winning this Second Leg and moving into the Group Stage of the Champions League.


Borussia Monchengladbach v Young Boys Pick: The First Leg has placed Borussia Monchengladbach firmly in control of this Champions League Play Off tie and I think Young Boys will struggle to contain them in the Second Leg too. Of course Borussia Monchengladbach don't 'need' to win, but this is the opening home game of the new season and that should see them plenty motivated to give the fans something to enjoy.

They might only have won 1 of their last 4 home games in European football, but Borussia Monchengladbach have played the likes of Sevilla (twice), Manchester City and Juventus. All of those sides are significantly better than Young Boys and I am looking for the German side to move into the Group Stage with another impressive win under their belt.

The style of play means Borussia Monchengladbach will get forward to try and score goals and win this Second Leg. The fact they are 3-1 up from the First Leg means their opponents have to come forward and I can see Borussia Monchengladbach having plenty of spaces to exploit on the counter attack.

I also can't ignore the fact that Young Boys have been a poor travelling team in recent European games with the two goals conceded at Shakhtar Donetsk the fewest they have conceded in 6 away games. All of those 6 straight losses suffered have come by at least two goals and Young Boys have lost by three or more goals in half of those defeats.

Recently they have also been beaten 3-0 at Basel and Young Boys might struggle to contain Borussia Monchengladbach in the Second Leg. I will back the German side to go through to the Group Stage with another strong win under their belt and will back Borussia Monchengladbach to cover the Asian Handicap at home.


Salzburg v Dinamo Zagreb Pick: The 1-1 draw in Croatia might have given Salzburg the edge in the Play Off tie, but they can't rule out Dinamo Zagreb who have a very strong record at the Qualifier level in recent years.

Dinamo Zagreb are already assured of maintaining their run of getting to the Group Stage of one of the European competitions with this being their tenth time in a row achieving that feat. However they would love to turn around this tie and make it back into the Champions League Group Stage for the fourth time in six seasons although they have to win at a ground that has been tough in recent times.

It is Salzburg who have won 4 in a row at home in European competition and they have also won their last 5 home Champions League games but without being able to make it through to the Group Stage. Those wins will give them confidence, but Dinamo Zagreb are unbeaten in 14 away European Qualifiers in the Champions League and Europa League and the side have won 12 of those games.

Two seasons ago Dinamo Zagreb were hammered in both games played against Salzburg in the Europa League Group Stage, but the home team will have to deal with their nerves having missed good chances to reach the Champions League Groups in recent seasons. However, I think Salzburg won't have had too many better opportunities than this and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish Dinamo Zagreb off with a late goal to win this Second Leg and cover the one goal Asian Handicap.


Manchester City v Steaua Bucharest Pick: The tie has already been won by Manchester City and the layers are not giving anything away by asking them to cover two goals on the Asian Handicap. However I think there is still an excitement under the new guidance of Pep Guardiola and I imagine the manager will use a spine of the players that will likely play a huge part through the season.

There is a suggestion Sergio Aguero will be rested, but Manchester City don't play in the Premier League until Sunday and I think Guardiola will give a few players more minutes to get used to what he wants from them. Those on the fringes might have some more opportunities, but Guardiola has made it clear he expects his Manchester City team to keep winning.

Having a 5-0 lead from the First Leg means Manchester City don't need to win, but that should ease the pressure and let them play their game. Last week they showed they are considerably stronger than Steaua Bucharest who looked naive defensively and gave up too many chances to give me much belief that things will change in the Second Leg.

I don't think Manchester City will get back up to five goals this week but I do think they will show their superiority on the scoreboard again. They looked far too good for Steaua Bucharest and I think the need to impress Guardiola will keep the fires burning as I look for Manchester City to record another comfortable win over their visitors.


Grasshoppers v Fenerbahce Pick: This Play Off tie looks all over in the Europa League after two goals in the final twenty minutes allowed Fenerbahce to put a gloss on the First Leg that they won 3-0. That looks very unlikely to be overturned by Grasshoppers who have scored plenty of goals but who have conceded too many to think they can win this one by more than three goals that they will likely need to if they want to move into the Group Stage.

Goals haven't been an issue for Grasshoppers who have scored 19 goals in their 11 games in all competitions this season. In 3 of their 4 home games we have seen three goals shared out by the teams with Grasshoppers scoring two goals in each of those games.

On the other hand Fenerbahce have scored in 6 of their last 7 away games in European football and they will likely have space to exploit if Grasshoppers push forward in search of goals.

This has all the features of a game that should provide goals for the neutrals and I will back there being at least three goals shared out by two teams who have scored and conceded goals in recent weeks with some regularity.


Rosenborg v Austria Vienna Pick: Last week was an entertaining First Leg between Rosenborg and Austria Vienna which has given the latter a 2-1 advantage ahead of the Second Leg. However Rosenborg were very unfortunate in losing that game and will be confident they can get the better of Austria Vienna this time around.

You have to respect the Austria Vienna away record in European football as their single loss in their last 9 on their travels has come against Atletico Madrid. Austria Vienna have won both away games in the Europa League this season too but that goes against Rosenborg who have won both home games in the Champions League.

I think it is going to be another competitive game and it will be about taking the chances that come if Rosenborg are going to get back into this tie. They missed some big chances at APOEL when the game was tied in the Second Leg and again last week in Vienna, but they have been more clinical in the home games.

Rosenborg have won 13 straight at home in all competitions and scored at least twice in their last 11 and I think they can get the better of Austria Vienna in this one. The layers are very confident, but I think you can go a step further and back Rosenborg to move into the Group Stage and I will back them to Qualify from the tie.


Olympiacos v Arouca Pick: The 0-1 win for Olympiacos in Portugal has put them in the driving seat against unfancied Arouca and I expect the experience to see them through to the Europa League Group Stage. Olympiacos were stunned by Hapoel Be'er Sheva in the Champions League Third Qualifying Round, but Arouca have even less pedigree than the Israeli Champions.

The problem for Arouca is they have to score at least once in this game to give themselves a chance to upset Olympiacos. After coming off a really stunning season, Arouca have made a difficult start to the new season and they have suffered some one-sided losses away from home in the last twelve months.

At some point in this game I am looking for Olympiacos to have spaces to exploit as Arouca push forward to get back into this tie. They might not have played well enough to get back into the Champions League Group Stage, but there is plenty of experience that Olympiacos can use to make sure they get into the Europa League Group Stage.

Arouca may struggle with the best way to approach the game having lost 0-1 at home and I am looking for Olympiacos to perhaps wrap up the tie late on while covering the Asian Handicap.


West Ham United v Astra Pick: There are a number of injuries in the West Ham United squad going into this Second Leg and Slaven Bilic is desperate to bring in some reinforcements before the transfer window closes next week.

Unlike last season, Bilic won't make wholesale changes for the Second Leg as he does feel getting West Ham United into the Europa League Group Stage is an important part of the club's improvement. Having European football in the London Stadium going into the winter months would be reward for the fans and I do think we will see a much more familiar line up than the one that was beaten by Astra last season.

Missing players like Andy Carroll and Dimitri Payet is a blow, but there is enough quality for West Ham United to beat this Astra team.

Last week I backed Astra on the Asian Handicap but I am going the other way in this Second Leg. Anyone who saw the game in Romania would have noted West Ham United were the stronger team, but the pitch was something of a leveller in terms of the quality of the two teams.

That won't be the case this week as West Ham United play in their new Stadium on a much better playing surface and The Hammers created enough last week to think they can finish the job here. They do play Manchester City this weekend, but Bilic knows the players are away after that and getting in the new faces he wants can only be helped by playing in Europe after the World Cup Qualifiers.

I expect West Ham United to be better this week and they already looked too good for Astra. Aside from another sending off changing momentum as it did when these teams met last season, I can only see West Ham United winning this one by a couple of goals.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Istanbul Basaksehir Pick: From an experience stand point, Shakhtar Donetsk were big favourites to beat Istanbul Basaksehir in this Play Off Round tie and their 1-2 win in the Turkish capital puts them in a very strong position.

I can't see Istanbul Basaksehir getting back into this tie by scoring at least twice and beating a team that have been tough to play in their adopted home, especially in European competition.

Some may point to the fact that Shakhtar Donetsk blew a 2-0 First Leg lead against Young Boys in the Champions League, but the Second Leg was away from home and being in the Ukraine gives them a strong advantage.

While I think Shakhtar Donetsk progress, taking this Second Leg alone it has to be pointed out that they don't need to win to move through. In fact a 0-1 defeat would be enough for Shakhtar Donetsk to progress and their thinking might be a little more clouded than Istanbul Basaksehir's who have to score at least twice so know they need to attack.

However I think Shakhtar Donetsk have enough experience to deal with their situation and they showed a 1-2 win still brings out the best of them in the Second Leg at home when crushing Sporting Braga 4-0 in the Quarter Final last season. The first goal is going to be critical in this Second Leg, but Shakhtar Donetsk will likely find plenty of spaces to exploit if they can get that as Istanbul Basaksehir start getting a little desperate to get back into the tie.

Shakhtar Donetsk finished off Anderlecht and Young Boys with late goals at home in recent European games and I can seem them doing the same here to win this Second Leg by two clear goals too.

MY PICKS: Monaco-Villarreal Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Roma-Porto Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Hapoel Be'er Sheva-Celtic Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 BWin (2 Units)
Legia Warsaw - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burton Albion Over 0.5 Team Goals @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Luton Town-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Millwall-Nottingham Forest Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Wolves - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Copenhagen @ 2.88 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Borussia Monchengladbach - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Salzburg - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grasshoppers-Fenerbahce Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rosenborg to Qualify @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Olympiacos - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)

August Update: 17-17, + 2.65 Units (61 Units Staked, + 4.34% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)