Featured post

NBA Playoffs 2026- Second Round Picks Game 1-4 (Monday 4th May-Monday 11th May)

NBA Playoffs- Second Round Game 1-4 Picks Outside events meant not having the same time as I would have expected to put the NBA Picks on the...

Showing posts with label August 23-25. Show all posts
Showing posts with label August 23-25. Show all posts

Friday, 23 August 2019

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (August 23-25)

Two weeks of Premier League Football are in the books and I have to say I am feeling better about the coming season from a Manchester United perspective than I might have been after hosting Chelsea and visiting Wolves.

Some have suggested it is a sign of standards slipping that a point at Wolves is seen as a positive result, but you have to know almost nothing about football to fail to recognise the importance of the outcome of the trip to Molineux. Manchester United are a work in progress and it isn't that long ago that people were laughing at Jurgen Klopp for leading celebrations after a home draw with West Brom when he was rebuilding a squad and a culture at Anfield.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will know it is going to take some small steps to help recover United to a position they once dominated in English Football, and you can read more of my thoughts about the club here.

Those were written before the game against Wolves was played.


Last week was a really irritating one for the Weekend Football Picks which returned a loss. However I was a Paul Pogba penalty away from actually moving the season totals back into a positive number and I don't think I was wrong in backing Manchester City to beat Tottenham Hotspur considering the stats on the day.

A bit of bad luck is par for the course over a long season, but the hope is that I can at least point to that rather than poor selections if I don't turn this month around.

The Premier League is back underway on Friday this week with another live game that evening and all ten games will be played by Sunday evening.


Aston Villa v Everton Pick: There is little doubt that Aston Villa need to improve defensively if they are going to survive in the Premier League in their return to the top flight, but there have been enough positives to take from their opening two fixtures to believe they can do that.

Twelve months ago Fulham came into the Premier League after making a huge investment in the summer and Aston Villa have done something similar. However I do think Dean Smith will be able to find a way to integrate the players he has purchased compared with Fulham who were looking to make wholesale changes to their starting eleven and there have been some solid play in the final third that have seen Aston Villa creating chances.

Defensively there are gaps that need to be filled, but outside of a really poor opening fifteen minutes last weekend Aston Villa did show enough to believe they will earn plenty of points if they maintain the standards set. On another day Aston Villa would not have lost that game and I think they would be a much shorter price than they are heading into this third game of the League season.

Instead Everton are a clear favourite to win at Villa Park and this is a club that has managed to earn the three points in 3 of their last 4 visits to this ground. The Toffees have made a good start to the season with 4 points earned against Crystal Palace and Watford, but Everton were a touch fortunate last week and the potential absence of Lucas Digne is a blow.

They have been a tough team to break down and score goals against in the final weeks of last season and Everton have continued that to open this one, but both Crystal Palace and Watford have had chances. Aston Villa at home look like a team that will test Everton too and I do think there may be a lack of goals that holds Everton back even with the arrival of talented youngster Moise Kean.

Everton have only won 8 of their last 39 away Premier League games since August 2017 and last season they scored 24 goals in 19 away League games. They have already been held to a goalless draw by Crystal Palace earlier this month and I have to be wary of backing a favourite that has struggled in the final third as much as Everton have done.

Aston Villa look like a team that will create chances at home and I think they can snap what has been a poor recent record against Everton. If the home team score once I believe that will put them in a good position to avoid a defeat, even though The Villains have been poor from a defensive standpoint to open the season.

I do like the balance Marco Silva has found in his Everton team in recent months, but they are a team that are more vulnerable away from home. Aston Villa can underline that by earning at least a point in this one and I will back the home team with a start on the Asian Handicap.


Norwich City v Chelsea Pick: The opening Premier League game on Saturday comes from Carrow Road as the television cameras visit this ground as a top flight one for the first time in three years. Norwich City are coming into this weekend off a very good 3-1 win over Newcastle United last time out, while Chelsea are still searching for their first win under Frank Lampard.

Even though that is the case, Chelsea are the favourites to win this one heading into this weekend, although the price has just drifted slightly.

The layers are perhaps right in having Chelsea in that position when you think this is a team that did finish in the top four last season and have not been as bad as the results may indicate. If they can find some clinical finishing in the final third, Chelsea won't have too many issues, but the feeling is that it could be a season long problem for Frank Lampard to address.

Still, Chelsea have created some good chances and much is going to depend on their mood in any given game as to how they will perform. However, at the moment it is hard to really expect Chelsea to win comfortably and they are going into a tough ground where Norwich City have been very good over the last twelve months.

Last season Norwich City scored plenty of goals at home in the Championship, but the concern remains that they conceded too many too. Even an average Newcastle United scored here last week and I would be surprised if the home team are able to contain Chelsea with the way they approach their fixtures and the tactics used by Daniel Farke.

It will give Norwich City a chance, even against the better teams in the League, and I think this is a confident team that can pose Chelsea plenty of questions in the second live game of the weekend. Last weekend I selected Leicester City with the start at Stamford Bridge and this weekend I do think Norwich City can be backed having caused problems for Liverpool and Newcastle United already.

I have little doubt Chelsea will cause problems too, but Norwich City can upset them and keep the pressure on Frank Lampard. Both teams scoring won't be a big surprise and I would be disappointed if Norwich City are blown away considering their own levels to open up this month.

Backing the home team on the Asian Handicap looks the right play here.


Brighton v Southampton Pick: It can be very difficult to ignore results and change the way you think about a team and that will be the case for those who have been surprised by the opening results Brighton and Southampton have earned.

The Seagulls are under new guidance this season and Graham Potter has got the squad playing some good football in the first two weeks of the new campaign. They were very unfortunate to not beat West Ham United here last weekend, and Brighton have been pretty sound defensively while creating a fair few chances.

On the other hand Southampton have lost twice, but have won the Expected Goals category in both games against Burnley and Liverpool. Under Ralph Hasenhuttl Southampton have been a decent team going forward and it is only a lack of clinical finishing which has prevented them from earning at least a point from both League games played.

They continue to create plenty of chances, but Southampton have yet to find a shape that makes them tougher at the back. In 24 Premier League games, Southampton have kept just 3 clean sheets under Hasenhuttl, although the manager will be reminding his players that one of those came here at the Amex Stadium where Southampton left with a 0-1 win last season.

This Brighton team have shown a little more ambition going forward than Chris Hughton's one that Southampton last faced and I think that can make a difference for the home team. They look like they have a real creative edge, but I also think Southampton can play their part in this south coast derby with the attacking threat they have posed.

Brighton have scored in 5 of their last 8 home Premier League games so I am anticipating they can get on the scoreboard in this fixture. Southampton have not been as creative away from home as they have become at St Mary's under Ralph Hasenhuttl, but they should find a way to create some chances against a more progressive Brighton team and I think backing both teams to hit the net in this one is the right play.


Manchester United v Crystal Palace Pick: It has become very clear that any revival of Manchester United to join the top of English Football is going to come in slow steps, but the opening two Premier League fixtures in 2019/20 have perhaps shown a decent season is in the offing. No one will realistically expect a title challenge barring Liverpool and Manchester City falling way short of the standards they set last time out, but Manchester United have to believe they are good enough for a top four spot.

A win over Chelsea followed by a draw at Wolves is a good start and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has to be looking for his team to keep the momentum going when they host Crystal Palace this weekend. Last season an 11 game home winning run in League games against Crystal Palace came to an end, but Manchester United have shown some clinical finishing in the first two games to think they will do better than the goalless draw the corresponding fixture ended in.

Crystal Palace can't be underestimated considering they won at Manchester City and Arsenal last season and also drew here, but this has not been a great start to the new season. Failing to score in both League games is one thing, but Crystal Palace barely laid a glove on Sheffield United last Sunday.

Manchester United looked much better defensively in the draw with Wolves than they did in the opening game against Chelsea. With Aaron Wan-Bissaka being familiar with the talent of Wilfried Zaha and Harry Maguire offering some leadership at the back, I do think Manchester United can contain Crystal Palace in this one and match the number of clean sheets they earned at Old Trafford in the Premier League in 2018/19 after just two home games in 2019/20.

The home team have kept clean sheets in their last 6 home games against Crystal Palace and I think Manchester United can earn one here. They will have to be careful of the Crystal Palace set pieces, but with Maguire in the back I think Manchester United will be good enough defensively and show enough attacking threat to win this fixture.

So far this season Crystal Palace have looked far from convincing in defensive areas and I will look to back Manchester United to win this fixture with a clean sheet.


Sheffield United v Leicester City Pick: This is one of two Premier League games this weekend where I genuinely could make a case for all three of the results to be the final outcome.

With that in mind I don't think anyone will be surprised that I am going to move past this fixture and instead add their stats into the books to see whether there is something we can find out about them for matches to come through the season.

Sheffield United have looked pretty good defensively despite the tactics used by Chris Wilder which sees his centre halves making overlapping runs on the wings. The concern in making sweeping statements about the defensive shape is that Sheffield United have played Bournemouth and Crystal Palace, whereas this week they take on a quality looking Leicester City team.

They have created chances too so there is definitely a real opportunity for Sheffield United to continue their strong start to the season. However I was very impressed with Leicester City in their 1-1 draw at Chelsea last Sunday in a game that a mistake proved costly for them early in the fixture.

The fightback in the second half saw Leicester City finish much the stronger, but I do have to wonder if they have enough goals in the side despite the obvious quality play of the midfield. The feeling is they are perhaps over-reliant on Jamie Vardy, but they should be good for a goal this weekend which may be enough to earn the three points if they can continue to play effectively at the back.

I just don't know how it will go and I would not pay to find out, although if I had a gun to my head I would likely select the draw.



Watford v West Ham United Pick: This is the second of the fixtures I can make a case for all three outcomes.

Watford and West Ham United have both made stuttering starts to the new season, but I would expect both to be much higher up the League table when it is all said and done in May. Out of the two teams Watford have been much unluckier and I wouldn't have minded backing them on the Draw No Bet market, but the layers have understood the situation and Watford are a strong enough favourite to avoid.

West Ham United have continued to look erratic defensively and were fortunate to earn a result at Brighton last Saturday. They will need to be much better at the back if Manuel Pellegrini is going to guide them towards a potential European berth, but at the moment neither team is easy to trust with a lack of goals a real concern.

As I have said, my edge is with Watford who perhaps have shown slightly more quality in the final third, but West Ham United look a team who will score plenty at this level too. Either way I will keep a watching brief on this one.



Liverpool v Arsenal Pick: Unai Emery has been joking that his Arsenal team 'never' want to play Liverpool, but I am not sure that is an ideal way to get his troops ready to visit a ground on which they have taken some serious punishment in recent years. While they have shown signs that they may be a little more effective defensively, Arsenal are going to be tested by a Liverpool team who have scored at least three times in 5 of their last 6 at Anfield against them.

Last season Liverpool thumped Arsenal 5-1 here and it was not a scoreline that particularly flattered the home side either. Chances were created thick and fast and Arsenal were a mess at the back.

This time both come in with 100% Premier League records, but both have been fortunate to have as many points on the board. Last weekend it would have been fairer if both Arsenal and Liverpool dropped points, but they earned narrow 2-1 wins over Burnley and Southampton respectively, albeit while looking very shaky at the back.

Liverpool have had a poor pre-season and that seems to have carried over to their League form from a defensive point of view. This Arsenal team have plenty of attacking threat to believe they can punish any vulnerabilities that Liverpool continue to show at the back, but the flip side is I am struggling to know how Arsenal are going to contain the Liverpool attack.

Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino were all playing in summer tournaments for their nations, but all three have come back looking very fresh and ready to go. They have already contributed 5 of the 9 goals Liverpool have scored in all competitions this season and I do think it will be a real test of Arsenal's supposed improvement here.

Liverpool have played Arsenal 7 times under Jurgen Klopp and it is a stunning statistic that they have scored at least three goals in 6 of those games. They have won 4 of those 6 games and I simply think they are going to out-score Arsenal again when you consider the 3 games at Anfield have ended 12-2 in favour of Liverpool since the German took over at the latter.

I do think Unai Emery will have learnt from the experiences of the last game at Anfield, but I also have to believe Liverpool's current form is enough to see off this opponent. The Gunners lost at 7 of the top 9 last season and 4 of those defeats came by two or more goal margins.

Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester United all were beaten by at least two goal margins here last season and I think Liverpool win a high-scoring fixture as well as covering the Asian Handicap.


Bournemouth v Manchester City Pick: The television cameras head to the south coast for the first of the two live Premier League fixtures to be played on Sunday and all eyes will be on Bournemouth and the approach they take to this fixture.

A few months ago Bournemouth hosted Manchester City and had almost no ambition to actually try and test their visitors and instead Eddie Howe decided a deep defensive effort was the best way to approach the fixture. The Cherries did not have ONE shot that day, on or off target, and Manchester City dominated the fixture and unsurprisingly eventually broke them down in a 0-1 win.

It could have been easier for Manchester City that day if they had been a little more fortunate in front of goal, but they were also playing under the real pressure of a title run in as they were still chasing Liverpool back then. That is not the case in August and I expect that will free up Manchester City, while I am also expecting Bournemouth to play with more courage.

That may not be an ideal approach early in the game, especially if Bournemouth continue to offer up chances to teams as they did against Sheffield United and Aston Villa. Now they play the best team in England who are going to be much more dangerous in the final third than the two newly promoted clubs, although Bournemouth have shown they can limit the damage that Manchester City do to them.

Bournemouth have not conceded more than two goals in any of their last 3 home games against Manchester City and I have to believe they are going to take a similar approach here. It makes the Asian Handicap unappealing as I don't like opposing Manchester City who have won all 6 games in the Premier League played after a draw in the last couple of seasons.

The Champions have shown they can be clinical on their day as they were at the London Stadium two weeks ago, and Bournemouth have the tendency to take at least one big home defeat to one of the top six clubs in each season they have been in the top flight.

They have been more competitive for the most part though and Bournemouth have not rolled over for Manchester City in the three games played against them since Pep Guardiola arrived on these shores. Bournemouth have lost all of those though and I expect Manchester City will leave with a win on Sunday too, although I will back them to do so in a game that features less than five goals combined.

Bournemouth don't score a lot of home goals against the top teams in general, but they also don't concede a hatful either. They have found a way to limit the damage Manchester City can produce against them in recent seasons and I think Eddie Howe will go back to that blueprint, although his team will still likely end up coming up short.

7 of the last 39 Manchester City away games in the Premier League have seen five or more goals shared out and I will look for them to win a fixture with fewer than that number produced in this game.


Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United Pick: To say Tottenham Hotspur were a little fortunate to leave the Etihad Statement with a point may be a huge understatement if the Expected Goals are looked at and I don't think many fans or neutrals will argue that point.

Mauricio Pochettino won't be too worried about that though and will be very happy with another point to put on the board as they look to remain unbeaten ahead of the North London derby to come next weekend. His Tottenham Hotspur side were very, very strong in their opening win over Aston Villa and the return of Heung-Min Son is a boost for a team who will be looking for more clinical finishing in the final third.

They will be expected to create chances against Newcastle United despite needing narrow 1-0 wins to beat this opponent in each of the last two seasons. Both of those games were played at Wembley Stadium, and Tottenham Hotspur will feel their fans can make a big difference for them in their new Stadium.

So far this season Newcastle United are perhaps not playing with the same resiliency as they were under Rafael Benitez and that is an area Tottenham Hotspur will feel they can exploit with Christian Eriksen, Harry Kane and a returning Heung-Min Son. The Magpies will have to be a lot more careful defensively than they were in the 3-1 defeat to Norwich City, while Newcastle United are perhaps lacking a goal threat.

It was a concern in pre-season with Joelinton expected to come in and hit the ground running for a team who had lost plenty of goals when selling Ayoze Perez and not re-signing Solomon Rondon. The new signing might be absent this weekend which just makes it all the more difficult for Newcastle United who are going to have to go to basics to try and make life tough for their hosts.

The new season is too early to make sweeping statements, but I do think Newcastle United are going to struggle to contain Tottenham Hotspur. The hosts created a lot of chances against Aston Villa and Newcastle United were poor defensively a week ago. A week on the training ground may not be enough time to really turn that around and I think Steve Bruce is already feeling the pressure at St James' Park.

Backing Tottenham Hotspur to beat Newcastle United by two or more goals is the selection for me here. The Magpies showed some resilience when playing the top teams away from home last season, but they have lost some key performers and Tottenham Hotspur should be able to ride the momentum from the first two weeks to earn a solid win in the second of the live Sunday offerings.


Wolves v Burnley PickWe have seen the early Europa League fixtures being a real detriment to clubs in the Premier League and Wolves have yet to win a game in the top flight despite putting together 5 straight wins in European competition.

They haven't played badly in draws with Leicester City and Manchester United and Wolves are strong favourites to beat Burnley on Sunday. However they have to make sure they have enough rest having put in a big effort to beat Torino in Italy on Thursday evening and knowing the game with Burnley is going to be another physical challenge.

Both matches against Burnley were tough last season, but I do think Wolves have to be given an edge being at home. Defensively Wolves have been pretty good in both games played in the Premier League so far this season and they look like a team who are going to be difficult to beat.

I have to credit Burnley for the performance they produced against Arsenal last Saturday and they have not played a game in the time Wolves have had to play two competitive fixtures. It should be mean a well rested team heads to Molineux and Sean Dyche will be all too aware of the impact the early season Europa League Qualifiers can have on a squad having seen his Burnley team struggle in that spot twelve months ago.

Burnley are a team that can surprise if opponents underestimate them and they are not likely to roll over. I still fancy Wolves to win though and I think it may be another narrow, tight encounter between these teams as the home team looks to build some momentum to close out the month.

Goals may be at a premium in this one and I think backing Wolves to win a largely low-scoring encounter is the way to go with this fixture. They should have just enough quality in the final third to break down Burnley and I will look to back Wolves to win in a game that features less than four goals at odds against.

MY PICKS: Aston Villa + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Norwich City + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton-Southampton Both Teams to Score @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win & Under 4.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves & Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Season 2019/20 Update: 7-8-1, - 3.02 Units (32 Units Staked, - 9.44% Yield)



Fantasy Football (GameWeek 3)
GameWeek 2 turned out to be a mixed week for the Fantasy Football team I started, but the Sunday and Monday points saved what looked to be a difficult week before then.

John Lundstram not only scored the winning goal for Sheffield United, but the clean sheet added to the points the player picked up. On Monday Anthony Martial scored another goal for Manchester United and they helped my team produce 50 points in GW2 which is more than the average for the week and moves me onto 134 points for the season so far.

Joshua King was one of four goalscorers in the eleven selected, but I have to be largely disappointed with the poor returns made by the other players despite the decent overall returns.

It is still a time to largely keep faith with the squad, although I do know the Wildcard has been a popular chip through the first couple of weeks of the season and likely also in GW3. I am pretty satisfied with the squad I have right now although two transfers are available this week and I do intend to use them.


Last week I also identified some players who could make a difference to your Fantasy teams out there and I have to say I wish I had taken my own advice on some of them. Jordan Pickford earned a clean sheet, while all three strikers identified got on the scoreboard and two of them have increased their prices in the last week.

Teemu Pukki and Ashley Barnes continued their hot starts, but I think we may be moving into a position where they are being bought high and so it might be wise to not rush out and purchase either.

Below I have my latest list of players that I am tracking or considering bringing into my team this week.


Goalkeeper
Nick Pope (4.5 Million- Burnley): The only player I am listing here this week is the Burnley goalkeeper. The next two weeks look like difficult games, but Pope could be worth bringing in after that if you want to use funds to improve other positions.

Last week I identified both Adrian and Jordan Pickford in this spot. The former is still the Liverpool Number 1 despite a horrendous error against Southampton, but for how long is the question? The latter earned another clean sheet last weekend, but his price has since moved from 5.5 to 5.6 and I am not sure the next two weeks present great chances to add to the clean sheet run.


Defender
Harry Maguire (5.5 Million- Manchester United): I had the new Manchester United centre half in this spot last week and the much improved defensive performance against Wolves compared with Chelsea has impressed. The early season fixtures are still fairly difficult looking on paper, but I think Maguire and Manchester United have a good chance for a clean sheet this weekend.

Yerry Mina (5.5 Million- Everton): I've said through the first two weeks of the season that Everton are in good form defensively. Games against Aston Villa and Wolves will be testing, but I think the Colombian will provide a threat for goals as long as he stays healthy, a concern considering his record last season.

I mentioned Fabian Delph last week as a potential player to bring in considering he may be a Defender that could be playing much higher up the pitch for Everton. Until he is passed fit, I do think Delph is someone to keep on the watch list, although the difficulty of fixtures might increase by the time he returns to action.


Midfielder
Kevin De Bruyne (9.6 Million- Manchester City): The Belgian has shown fantastic form and was playing further up the pitch than I thought he would be in Manchester City's last game. I wouldn't lose faith in Bernardo Silva just yet, while Raheem Sterling is the obvious choice from the City midfield, but De Bruyne is someone I am keeping my eye on if I want to shift some cash to other areas of my team.

Sadio Mane (11.5 Million- Liverpool): Over the last eight months Sadio Mane is coming close to matching the output of Mohamed Salah and is offering a saving of 1 million to use on other members of the squad. Three goals in two starts shows Mane has picked up from where he left off and switching Salah for the Senegalese forward is a real option.

Christian Eriksen (8.9 Million- Tottenham Hotspur): Definitely not a move to make before the international break, but keep an eye on him if he stays at Tottenham Hotspur until January at least. Crystal Palace, Leicester City, Southampton, Brighton and Watford are the fixtures to come after the September international break.

Todd Cantwell (4.6 Million- Norwich City)/Marco Stiepermann (5.5 Million- Norwich City): Personally I might wait until after the Manchester City game in early September before finding the Norwich City midfielder I want to invest in, but both are playing in attacking areas for a side that is looking to take the game to opponents both home and away on early season looks.

Trezeguet (5.5 Million- Aston Villa): They might have lost both games played in the League, but Aston Villa have shown an attacking threat and Trezeguet looks like he will have an impact in the League. Aston Villa don't have the most difficult looking fixtures coming up so definitely a player I would be considering to free up funds in other areas.

None of my midfield options impressed last week as Riyad Mahrez was back on the bench for Manchester City, while Gylfi Sigurdsson has made a slow start to the campaign. This section would have looked better if Paul Pogba had scored the penalty he did brilliantly to win against Wolves on Monday evening.


Forward
David McGoldrick (5.5 Million- Sheffield United): I am not sure how many more chances he will get to lead the Sheffield United line if he can't begin to convert opportunities coming his way. However David McGoldrick is the player who has had the best stats for The Blades thanks to the huge miss against Crystal Palace and might still be a decent 'cheaper' option to pick in the squad.

Neal Maupay (6 Million- Brighton): Glenn Murray is getting the call from Graham Potter to lead the line, but the ageing forward has to be getting pushed by the likes of Florin Andone and Neal Maupay. I have little doubt the former Brentford striker can score goals at this level and the positive approach of Potter will certainly help.

Callum Wilson (8 Million- Bournemouth): Has yet to open his mark for Bournemouth this season, but Wilson has shown decent form and won't be too far from putting his name back on the scoresheet.

I placed three names in the Forward section and it really could not have gone much better for all of them. Roberto Firmino and Ashley Barnes both scored in away games at Southampton and Arsenal respectively, but Teemu Pukki was the big impact player with a hat-trick against Newcastle United which has seen his ownership increase rapidly.

My feeling is that Pukki will have chances this weekend against Chelsea and West Ham United next time out, but Norwich City then face Manchester City and it could easily also become three straight weeks without a goal for the popular pick. If you are going to pick him, I would get on him now before any further price rise and then hope he continues his hot start to the season prior to the City game.


GameWeek 3 Team
Staying with the squad from GW1 through GW2 is a positive in terms of giving me two Free Transfers and I didn't have a bad week in either, although my Captain choice has been wrong on both occasions.

Below you can see the team I am selecting for the weekend and also highlighting the transfers I have made.


The two Free Transfers were both used this week as I needed one to make the other due to the prices of the players. One was a transfer I always had in mind and the other has come about because of what I have seen through the first two weeks of the season.

First up I have made the move to replace Mohamed Salah with Sadio Mane- from day one I knew this was a realistic option for me as Mane had been in a very similar high level of form for Liverpool over the last six months of the previous season as Salah had been and being able to save 1 million for the squad was a bonus.

Three goals in his first two starts for Liverpool suggests Mane is yet to drop off from the standards he has set and he has a good record against upcoming opponents which made him the pick. I decided to keep Josh King rather than bring in David McGoldrick for a similar saving because of the fixtures both are due to play over the coming weeks.


It has opened the door for the other transfer and that is bringing in Harry Maguire for Tyrone Mings. Aston Villa are still learning at this level and I am not convinced they have a lot of clean sheets coming up, while Manchester United were impressive enough at the back last week at Wolves to make me want to invest in a defender.

This may not be a long-term choice with some very difficult looking matches to come up, but Maguire has also been targeted in set pieces and I think he may offer a threat for Manchester United. I also think United have shown some improvement defensively which could lead to more clean sheets than they managed last season.


My GameWeek 3 team is below with the changes made- it looks like a 4-5-1 formation on paper, but with the positions players have started in over the first couple of weeks, the look of the team is more of a 3-5-2 (Lundstram midfield/Martial up front).


Ederson: Man City have two clean sheets in three visits to the Vitality Stadium and I continue with my one goalkeeper policy rather than chopping and changing who I start like some do.

Virgil Van Dijk: Liverpool have not looked that good defensively and I expect Arsenal to challenge them. However you can't ignore amount of clean sheets Liverpool have had in the last two seasons and the centre half remains a threat from set pieces.

Andrew Robertson: Same reasons as above why Liverpool are a risky defensive pick at the moment, especially without Alisson in goal. Assists could be important for Robertson to make up for points lost through a lack of clean sheets.

John Lundstram: I picked the Sheffield United 'defender' as he has been playing in a much more advanced position for the club. He set up another huge chance in GW2 after a decent GW1 outing, and Lundstram backed up that positioning by scoring the winning goal. Might not get a clean sheet this week, but attacking returns potentially make up for that.

Harry Maguire: A home game against Crystal Palace was one of only two clean sheets for Manchester United at Old Trafford last season and the predominantly solid defending last week impressed me. Harry Maguire is also going to be a big target from set pieces so can always add to his points in the air.

Youri Tielemans: He hasn't had the impact I was hoping for, but Leicester City face Sheffield United and Bournemouth over the next two weeks and I will re-evaluate his position in my squad following the international break.

Sadio Mane (C): Mohamed Salah has scored in three of his four appearances against Arsenal so this may not be the best time to take the Egyptian out of the line up, especially as he can be on penalties. However he has not scored in his last three against Burnley, who Liverpool face next and Sadio Mane has looked at peak condition with three goals in two starts.

Sadio Mane has scored in four of six appearances against Arsenal and he has also scored three times in his last three against Burnley, while I am also getting on before what could be an expected price rise if he overshadows Salah again this weekend. He is also my Captain choice as someone who could be involved in multiple goals against a weak looking Arsenal defence, although Raheem Sterling has proven me wrong to have him as Vice for two weeks in a row.

Raheem Sterling (VC): The Manchester City forward has seen his price rise in back to back weeks in the game and has scored in both Premier League games played. Has a winner at the Vitality Stadium under his belt once already and it's not the time to remove Sterling from any squad.

Bernardo Silva: Riyad Mahrez had a much bigger impact in his Premier League start than Bernardo Silva, but I think it says a lot that the latter started the 'bigger' game. His price has surprisingly dropped this week, but patience is a virtue and I am sticking with the Portuguese players who came on leaps and bounds last season.

Anthony Martial: I picked him at the start of the season with the belief that he would be the Number 9 for Manchester United in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's preferred system. The Frenchman has responded with a goal in each start and facing a Crystal Palace defence that has looked far from watertight through the first two weeks of the season.

Che Adams: The underlying statistics show Che Adams is not far away from opening his Premier League account, but I am keeping a watching brief on him. At some stage I would expect Ralph Hasenhuttl will take him out of the starting line up if he can't find a way to goal soon, but I would expect Adams to have chances to score in the final two games this month.


Bench: Michael McGovern (Norwich City backup to the backup GK), Caglar Soyuncu (a chance of a clean sheet and he has impressed so far, but I prefer picking the Sheffield United player who may offer a chance of goals), Joshua King (home game versus Manchester City is a tough place to make an impact), Xande Siva (injured, cheap back up to main squad at this stage of the season).

Tuesday, 23 August 2016

Midweek Football Picks 2016 (August 23-25)

This week is all about concluding the Qualifiers in the Champions League and Europa League and we will be seeing the Group Stage draws later on. On Thursday evening it will be the Champions League Group Stage that is decided, while the Europa League participants will have to wait until Friday morning.

We also have the Second Round of the English Football League Cup played during the week with the draw for the Third Round expected to be made on Wednesday evening.

This will lead into the final weekend in August of domestic football before a two week break to account for the World Cup Qualifiers.


So far the picks are still in good shape, but it was a difficult weekend with a few upsets and less than exciting matches. Late goals didn't help, but it happens and I am looking for two big threads to give this season a boost at the beginning that I haven't had too often.

Hopefully this midweek selection of games can have the same impact as we saw last week to give me some momentum to take into the final weekend of August.


Monaco v Villarreal PickDespite a fairly turbulent summer where expectations might have lessened for Villarreal, I did think they might have won last week to hold a narrow edge over Monaco in the Second Leg. Instead all credit has to be given to Monaco for coming away from Spain with a 1-2 win and that means they are in pole position to make it back to the Champions League Group Stage.

You wouldn't argue with anyone that makes Monaco a fairly strong favourite to do that considering they have been tough to beat at home in recent European games. Monaco have won their last 3 Champions League Qualifiers at home over the last twelve months against the likes of Young Boys, Valencia and Fenerbahce and so playing Villarreal won't hold any fear for them.

They will respect Villarreal who did reach the Semi Final of the Europa League in each of the last two seasons, but there have been some key departures since they finished 4th in the Primera Division in May. This is also a side that haven't been as strong on their travels as they have at home in European games and Villarreal have won just 2 of their last 8 away games in the Europa League.

It really couldn't be much simpler for Villarreal in this Second Leg which should make putting a game plan together a little easier. They have to score at least twice to have any chance of progressing so at some point Villarreal will be willing to take risks to try and be rewarded with a Champions League Group Stage.

For Monaco it is a little more difficult as they try to figure out if they should twist or stick. Two seasons ago they did lose 0-2 at home in the Second Leg of the Second Round meeting with Arsenal after beating The Gunners 1-3 in London, so the victory in Spain is not a guarantee Monaco can progress.

They have shown they can score goals though and Monaco will have some chances of their own in this one as Villarreal come forward in numbers. Monaco have the edge with a slightly more settled mentality coming into the Second Leg and back to back wins will have given them confidence. However I do think Villarreal can create chances too and backing at least three goals to be shared out in the Second Leg like we saw in the First Leg is the call.


Roma v Porto PickThis Second Leg could not have been more finely balanced after the 1-1 draw in Portugal last week although Porto might feel they should have done better against a Roma team who had been reduced to ten men for much of the game. That result does mean Roma will be going in as favourites to reach the Champions League Group Stage, but they don't have a dominant home record in Europe which keeps this one very interesting.

Porto might not have scored in losses at Chelsea and Borussia Dortmund in their last 2 European away games, but they scored at least twice in their other 2 away games in Europe. On another night Porto might have had a lead to take to Italy if they had taken the chances that did come their way and I can see them causing some problems for Roma again.

However the right team is being favoured as Roma looked very strong last week when the teams both had eleven men on the pitch. The Thomas Vermaelan sending off changed the First Leg, but Roma will believe home advantage can give them the edge in this one.

It should be an entertaining game like the First Leg was.

Roma are not a team that can sit back and hope a clean sheet is enough to put them into the Group Stage, but instead they will look to take the game to Porto as they did last week in Portugal. With Porto needing at least one goal to give themselves a chance to progress to the Group Stage, they will likely send numbers forward in this one and I can see goals being the outcome.

Only 1 of the 4 Roma home games in the Champions League ended with three goals or more being shared out, but there should be enough chances in this one to provide goals in this Second Leg. The 1-1 final score is a real player in this one too, but I think we will see the teams playing with enough confidence and freedom to combine for at least three goals in this huge game.


Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Celtic Pick: Last week was a rollercoaster ride for Brendan Rodgers and his Celtic players and fans in the First Leg as they threw away a 3-0 lead to be pulled back to 3-2. Two late goals have given Celtic the big edge in the tie having won 5-2 at Celtic Park, but Hapoel Be'er Sheva have been talking up a big game heading into the Second Leg.

Goals might be the order of the day in the Second Leg with Hapoel Be'er Sheva forced to go on the attack and Celtic having plenty of counter attacking ability. In 4 of the last 5 Hapoel Be'er Sheva games there have been at least three goals shared out, while Rodgers has been talking up the attacking potential his side have displayed so far.

The last 5 Celtic games have all produced at least three goals but it does have to be noted that only 1 of Celtic's last 6 away games in the Champions League have hit that target. However this is a rare occasion when the Celtic's opponents have to be a little gung-ho in their attacking performance to try and get back into the tie as soon as possible knowing they need to score three times without reply to get them through to the Group Stage.

2 of the 3 Celtic away games in the Europa League Group Stage did see three or more goals shared out and I think that is the most likely situation in this one. There should be plenty of chances at both ends if the First Leg is anything to go by and late goals might be in play when one of the teams are pushing forward in search of goals which leaves them vulnerable to the counter attack.


Legia Warsaw v Dundalk Pick: A late goal in Dublin has given Legia Warsaw a 2-0 lead over Dundalk going into the Second Leg of this Champions League Play Off tie and the Polish side are now in a very strong position to progress to the Group Stage. The run to this Round from Dundalk has come in surprising fashion and a place in the Europa League Group Stage will be the reward for them.

I imagine the dream draw would be to face Manchester United, but Dundalk are not going to roll over and allow Legia Warsaw to embarrass them in the Second Leg. Unfortunately there is a clear difference in quality and even though Legia Warsaw don't need to win this game, I do think they can go on and prove they are the better side.

The recent form displayed by Legia Warsaw has not been the best, but neither have Dundalk and I just think their run has come to an end. They will give plenty of effort and work hard but Dundalk have to also take some risks during the match and I think Legia Warsaw will be able to win this one by a couple of goals.


Burton Albion v Liverpool PickThe television cameras will arrive at the Pirelli Stadium in anticipation of an upset as Burton Albion look to beat Liverpool in this English Football League Cup Second Round. Nigel Clough has helped his team make a solid start to the new season at the Championship level which is a big leap for Burton Albion who had been playing in the fourth tier just two seasons ago.

Defensively there is room for improvement for Burton Albion, but that same charge can be levelled at the Liverpool first team defence. It is unlikely that Burton Albion will be facing that first team here and that will give them a chance as they have already scored ten goals in five games played this season.

Liverpool will feel they will have their joy going forward too but the five goals conceded by the first choice defence coupled with the changes likely to be made makes Liverpool a vulnerable team here in my opinion.

They look very short in the market when you think how Jurgen Klopp is likely to approach this Second Round game, but I am going to focus on Burton Albion and their chances of scoring at least one goal. This Liverpool defence will be unfamiliar and Burton Albion have been scoring plenty of goals so backing them to score at least once looks a big price.


Chelsea v Bristol Rovers PickThere will be changes made to the Chelsea first team as Antonio Conte rotates the squad, but the Italian has made it clear he still expects a winning performance on the day. Momentum is the key for Conte who will be looking for two more wins this week which will take Chelsea into September with confidence behind them after a difficult 2015/16 season.

It is a big ask for Bristol Rovers to challenge a Chelsea team from the Premier League when you think this club was in the Conference just two seasons ago. They are another team that have earned back to back promotions to now play at a level which is going to be very challenging for them.

That level is still two below the Premier League and there will be plenty of players in the home team who are trying to show the manager they are perhaps deserving of regular starting places. It should mean Chelsea are plenty motivated when taking to the field for a rare Second Round League Cup game and I think The Blues will be far too strong for Bristol Rovers.

Bristol Rovers have won just 1 of their last 6 away games in either League One or League Two and I think Chelsea will take control as their superior fitness begins to tell. I will back Chelsea to cover this Asian Handicap and move through to the Third Round.


Luton Town v Leeds United PickLuton Town showed tremendous character to come from a goal down to beat Championship Aston Villa in the English Football League Cup First Round and their reward is to face another of the big names from that Division. Leeds United are not as strong as Aston Villa on the pitch though and I can see Luton Town perhaps upsetting them, although not convinced enough to back them.

The Leeds United win at Sheffield Wednesday has played a part in that thinking while they have only lost 1 of their last 6 on their travels going back to last season.

Instead of picking a winner, I think these teams can combine for at least three goals as both teams will give this Second Round match a go. 4 of 5 Luton Town games have ended with at least three goals scored this season and they won't be overawed if they fall behind in this one having come back from that deficit to beat Aston Villa.

Leeds United have tended to play higher scoring games away from home over the last twelve months and they have conceded when facing lower League opposition in this Cup in recent seasons. The 1-1 scoreline is the big concern for my pick, but I think we will see a winner in normal time and I believe that will be 2-1 either way.


Millwall v Nottingham Forest PickThe English Football League Cup can be a difficult competition to read with even teams in the lower Leagues making changes to their starting line ups. That might not be the case for Millwall and Nottingham Forest in this Second Round match and I think both teams will feel they have enough going forward to trouble their opponents.

Britt Assombalonga could be missing for Nottingham Forest who have scored eight goals in two home games in the League, but failed to score in two away games. Nottingham Forest did beat League Two Doncaster Rovers in the First Round of the League Cup, but they conceded in that one too and have yet to keep a clean sheet.

Millwall have scored and conceded in three straight games themselves and I think there is plenty to suggest we will see goals in this one.

The 1-1 scoreline could be a real player, but I am looking for attacking football to be produced by both Millwall and Nottingham Forest which should lead to at least three goals being shared out.


Wolves v Cambridge United PickIt has been a really poor start to the season for Cambridge United, but they are far from out on contention before the first month of the 2016/17 season is in the books.

For Wolves it has been a surprisingly solid start to the new season and I wouldn't be shocked if both teams are looking ahead to big League games this weekend. However a place in the Third Round of the English Football League Cup is up for grabs along with some of the biggest clubs in English football and home advantage looks very important for Wolves.

I would not be expecting Cambridge United to roll over and they have shown they can compete with Championship clubs after beating Sheffield Wednesday in the First Round. However they have not scored in their last 3 away games and have lost both on their travels this season which is another edge to Wolves.

Wolves have won 3 of their last 4 games to start putting the momentum together and I think they will be too strong on the day and cover the Asian Handicap.


APOEL v Copenhagen Pick: The 1-0 home win for Copenhagen has given them the edge in this Champions League Play Off Round tie, but the layers believe APOEL are the more likely winners of the Second Leg. However I think a small interest on Copenhagen to win in Cyprus has to be taken as I look for them to make the Group Stage with another win under their belt.

Copenhagen have won 3 of their last 4 away games in European football and they are unbeaten in all 11 games they have played in all competitions in the new season. It does have to be said they have not been at their strongest away from home but Copenhagen don't need to win this one and look in stronger shape than APOEL.

There has been a week for APOEL to prepare for this game, but that doesn't take away from the fact they have lost 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions. In the last Round they scored three times in injury time to beat Rosenborg 3-0 here which helped them overturn a First Leg deficit, but anyone who saw that game will tell you that it was much closer than the final scoreline.

In fact it could be argued that Rosenborg had the best chances to win the game and I think Copenhagen can take those chances if they come up again as APOEL push to get back into the tie. APOEL only won 1 of their last 6 home games in European competition last season and they were beaten here by Danish club Midtjylland in the Champions League here last season.

As well as APOEL played in their game against Rosenborg, the feeling was that the Norwegian Champions let themselves down with a lack of composure in front of goal. At a big price I will have a small interest on Copenhagen winning this Second Leg and moving into the Group Stage of the Champions League.


Borussia Monchengladbach v Young Boys PickThe First Leg has placed Borussia Monchengladbach firmly in control of this Champions League Play Off tie and I think Young Boys will struggle to contain them in the Second Leg too. Of course Borussia Monchengladbach don't 'need' to win, but this is the opening home game of the new season and that should see them plenty motivated to give the fans something to enjoy.

They might only have won 1 of their last 4 home games in European football, but Borussia Monchengladbach have played the likes of Sevilla (twice), Manchester City and Juventus. All of those sides are significantly better than Young Boys and I am looking for the German side to move into the Group Stage with another impressive win under their belt.

The style of play means Borussia Monchengladbach will get forward to try and score goals and win this Second Leg. The fact they are 3-1 up from the First Leg means their opponents have to come forward and I can see Borussia Monchengladbach having plenty of spaces to exploit on the counter attack.

I also can't ignore the fact that Young Boys have been a poor travelling team in recent European games with the two goals conceded at Shakhtar Donetsk the fewest they have conceded in 6 away games. All of those 6 straight losses suffered have come by at least two goals and Young Boys have lost by three or more goals in half of those defeats.

Recently they have also been beaten 3-0 at Basel and Young Boys might struggle to contain Borussia Monchengladbach in the Second Leg. I will back the German side to go through to the Group Stage with another strong win under their belt and will back Borussia Monchengladbach to cover the Asian Handicap at home.


Salzburg v Dinamo Zagreb PickThe 1-1 draw in Croatia might have given Salzburg the edge in the Play Off tie, but they can't rule out Dinamo Zagreb who have a very strong record at the Qualifier level in recent years.

Dinamo Zagreb are already assured of maintaining their run of getting to the Group Stage of one of the European competitions with this being their tenth time in a row achieving that feat. However they would love to turn around this tie and make it back into the Champions League Group Stage for the fourth time in six seasons although they have to win at a ground that has been tough in recent times.

It is Salzburg who have won 4 in a row at home in European competition and they have also won their last 5 home Champions League games but without being able to make it through to the Group Stage. Those wins will give them confidence, but Dinamo Zagreb are unbeaten in 14 away European Qualifiers in the Champions League and Europa League and the side have won 12 of those games.

Two seasons ago Dinamo Zagreb were hammered in both games played against Salzburg in the Europa League Group Stage, but the home team will have to deal with their nerves having missed good chances to reach the Champions League Groups in recent seasons. However, I think Salzburg won't have had too many better opportunities than this and I wouldn't be surprised if they finish Dinamo Zagreb off with a late goal to win this Second Leg and cover the one goal Asian Handicap.


Manchester City v Steaua Bucharest PickThe tie has already been won by Manchester City and the layers are not giving anything away by asking them to cover two goals on the Asian Handicap. However I think there is still an excitement under the new guidance of Pep Guardiola and I imagine the manager will use a spine of the players that will likely play a huge part through the season.

There is a suggestion Sergio Aguero will be rested, but Manchester City don't play in the Premier League until Sunday and I think Guardiola will give a few players more minutes to get used to what he wants from them. Those on the fringes might have some more opportunities, but Guardiola has made it clear he expects his Manchester City team to keep winning.

Having a 5-0 lead from the First Leg means Manchester City don't need to win, but that should ease the pressure and let them play their game. Last week they showed they are considerably stronger than Steaua Bucharest who looked naive defensively and gave up too many chances to give me much belief that things will change in the Second Leg.

I don't think Manchester City will get back up to five goals this week but I do think they will show their superiority on the scoreboard again. They looked far too good for Steaua Bucharest and I think the need to impress Guardiola will keep the fires burning as I look for Manchester City to record another comfortable win over their visitors.


Grasshoppers v Fenerbahce PickThis Play Off tie looks all over in the Europa League after two goals in the final twenty minutes allowed Fenerbahce to put a gloss on the First Leg that they won 3-0. That looks very unlikely to be overturned by Grasshoppers who have scored plenty of goals but who have conceded too many to think they can win this one by more than three goals that they will likely need to if they want to move into the Group Stage.

Goals haven't been an issue for Grasshoppers who have scored 19 goals in their 11 games in all competitions this season. In 3 of their 4 home games we have seen three goals shared out by the teams with Grasshoppers scoring two goals in each of those games.

On the other hand Fenerbahce have scored in 6 of their last 7 away games in European football and they will likely have space to exploit if Grasshoppers push forward in search of goals.

This has all the features of a game that should provide goals for the neutrals and I will back there being at least three goals shared out by two teams who have scored and conceded goals in recent weeks with some regularity.


Rosenborg v Austria Vienna PickLast week was an entertaining First Leg between Rosenborg and Austria Vienna which has given the latter a 2-1 advantage ahead of the Second Leg. However Rosenborg were very unfortunate in losing that game and will be confident they can get the better of Austria Vienna this time around.

You have to respect the Austria Vienna away record in European football as their single loss in their last 9 on their travels has come against Atletico Madrid. Austria Vienna have won both away games in the Europa League this season too but that goes against Rosenborg who have won both home games in the Champions League.

I think it is going to be another competitive game and it will be about taking the chances that come if Rosenborg are going to get back into this tie. They missed some big chances at APOEL when the game was tied in the Second Leg and again last week in Vienna, but they have been more clinical in the home games.

Rosenborg have won 13 straight at home in all competitions and scored at least twice in their last 11 and I think they can get the better of Austria Vienna in this one. The layers are very confident, but I think you can go a step further and back Rosenborg to move into the Group Stage and I will back them to Qualify from the tie.


Olympiacos v Arouca PickThe 0-1 win for Olympiacos in Portugal has put them in the driving seat against unfancied Arouca and I expect the experience to see them through to the Europa League Group Stage. Olympiacos were stunned by Hapoel Be'er Sheva in the Champions League Third Qualifying Round, but Arouca have even less pedigree than the Israeli Champions.

The problem for Arouca is they have to score at least once in this game to give themselves a chance to upset Olympiacos. After coming off a really stunning season, Arouca have made a difficult start to the new season and they have suffered some one-sided losses away from home in the last twelve months.

At some point in this game I am looking for Olympiacos to have spaces to exploit as Arouca push forward to get back into this tie. They might not have played well enough to get back into the Champions League Group Stage, but there is plenty of experience that Olympiacos can use to make sure they get into the Europa League Group Stage.

Arouca may struggle with the best way to approach the game having lost 0-1 at home and I am looking for Olympiacos to perhaps wrap up the tie late on while covering the Asian Handicap.


West Ham United v Astra PickThere are a number of injuries in the West Ham United squad going into this Second Leg and Slaven Bilic is desperate to bring in some reinforcements before the transfer window closes next week.

Unlike last season, Bilic won't make wholesale changes for the Second Leg as he does feel getting West Ham United into the Europa League Group Stage is an important part of the club's improvement. Having European football in the London Stadium going into the winter months would be reward for the fans and I do think we will see a much more familiar line up than the one that was beaten by Astra last season.

Missing players like Andy Carroll and Dimitri Payet is a blow, but there is enough quality for West Ham United to beat this Astra team.

Last week I backed Astra on the Asian Handicap but I am going the other way in this Second Leg. Anyone who saw the game in Romania would have noted West Ham United were the stronger team, but the pitch was something of a leveller in terms of the quality of the two teams.

That won't be the case this week as West Ham United play in their new Stadium on a much better playing surface and The Hammers created enough last week to think they can finish the job here. They do play Manchester City this weekend, but Bilic knows the players are away after that and getting in the new faces he wants can only be helped by playing in Europe after the World Cup Qualifiers.

I expect West Ham United to be better this week and they already looked too good for Astra. Aside from another sending off changing momentum as it did when these teams met last season, I can only see West Ham United winning this one by a couple of goals.


Shakhtar Donetsk v Istanbul Basaksehir PickFrom an experience stand point, Shakhtar Donetsk were big favourites to beat Istanbul Basaksehir in this Play Off Round tie and their 1-2 win in the Turkish capital puts them in a very strong position.

I can't see Istanbul Basaksehir getting back into this tie by scoring at least twice and beating a team that have been tough to play in their adopted home, especially in European competition.

Some may point to the fact that Shakhtar Donetsk blew a 2-0 First Leg lead against Young Boys in the Champions League, but the Second Leg was away from home and being in the Ukraine gives them a strong advantage.

While I think Shakhtar Donetsk progress, taking this Second Leg alone it has to be pointed out that they don't need to win to move through. In fact a 0-1 defeat would be enough for Shakhtar Donetsk to progress and their thinking might be a little more clouded than Istanbul Basaksehir's who have to score at least twice so know they need to attack.

However I think Shakhtar Donetsk have enough experience to deal with their situation and they showed a 1-2 win still brings out the best of them in the Second Leg at home when crushing Sporting Braga 4-0 in the Quarter Final last season. The first goal is going to be critical in this Second Leg, but Shakhtar Donetsk will likely find plenty of spaces to exploit if they can get that as Istanbul Basaksehir start getting a little desperate to get back into the tie.

Shakhtar Donetsk finished off Anderlecht and Young Boys with late goals at home in recent European games and I can seem them doing the same here to win this Second Leg by two clear goals too.

MY PICKS: Monaco-Villarreal Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Roma-Porto Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Hapoel Be'er Sheva-Celtic Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 BWin (2 Units)
Legia Warsaw - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burton Albion Over 0.5 Team Goals @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Chelsea - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Luton Town-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Millwall-Nottingham Forest Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Wolves - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Copenhagen @ 2.88 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Borussia Monchengladbach - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Salzburg - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Grasshoppers-Fenerbahce Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rosenborg to Qualify @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Olympiacos - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)


August Update17-17, + 2.65 Units (61 Units Staked, + 4.34% Yield)

Season 2015/16133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13+ 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)