United Corner- Papering Over the Cracks (October 19th)

United Corner- Papering Over the Cracks (October 19th 2018)

Things were looking pretty bleak two weeks ago when Manchester United trailed Newcastle United 0-2 at half time of the final Premier League game before the international break.

Rumours had been rampant that Jose Mourinho was on the brink of being sacked and the atmosphere turned pretty toxic inside Old Trafford.

My stand is the East and things turned from shock to anger through the course of the first half, but importantly that anger has tended to be focused on the board and especially 'Dick 'Ed Woodward' who looks to be the main cause of a lack of investment made in the playing staff this past summer.

That is not something that will be lost on the manager, who it has been suggested leaked the rumour that he was about to be sacked, and I think it will have given Mourinho a real boost.

Coming back from 0-2 down at home to win late in the game will help, but it is always going to paper over some of the cracks and in the cold light of day it has become clear that this is going to be perhaps an even tougher season than the most negative of United fans would have imagined.

Mourinho warned this was going to be the case if he didn't get the players he wanted and it is still surprising to think Woodward didn't think Toby Alderweireld was going to be an upgrade on players like Chris Smalling and Phil Jones. However I do think Mourinho was talking from the point of view of challenging for the Premier League title and he would not be expecting Manchester United to fall out of the top four in the table.

Instead there is the feeling that even a top four place is going to be tough to achieve for the club with the current group they have. Unlike last season, David De Gea has not made the stunning saves to prevent Manchester United dropping points in games and the overachievement of finishing 2nd in the League table may actually have been a long term detriment to Mourinho and the club.

It certainly gave the board more optimism than they should had as they try and 'cheap' their way into the Champions League. That has almost all been eroded and things could look that much tougher by the end of this next set of games leading up to the November international break.

In that time Manchester United have to visit Chelsea, Bournemouth and Manchester City in the Premier League and all three clubs are above United in the League table. There is also a double header with Juventus to come in the Champions League and I can't help think Manchester United should have made more from the fixture list they had over the first couple of months of the season.

With that in mind it does feel the win over Newcastle United in early October is going to be little more than one of the last 'good' days under the management of Mourinho. Barring a real upturn in form I can see the pressure reaching a intolerable high by the time the next international break rolls around and I won't be surprised if the manager is gone before the end of this calendar year and perhaps as early as mid-November.

I don't really blame Jose Mourinho for the misfortunes of United as much as I do the players who are trying to exert their power much like the ones at Chelsea and Leicester City have done in recent years.

However I am not of the belief that Mourinho doesn't at least deserve some blame for how this season has begun.

Regardless of what his supporters think, I do believe his tactics are out-dated and the manager is simply not able to cope with the high press that so many clubs are playing with these days. The defence is not good enough for the way Mourinho wants to set his teams up, but the lack of cohesion in the final third between his players is on the manager.

I am not someone who looks back on the end of the Sir Alex Ferguson era with rose-tinted glasses because there were a number of times when the football wasn't great, but that group of players had a winning mentality instilled in them. That allowed United to turn around games when they fell behind, but this current crop is simply not good enough and not supporting Mourinho in the transfer market just seems to be a completely baffling move from the board.

If they don't want to support him they should sack him, but instead the club is left in some kind of limbo as they continue to fall some way short of the marker set by Manchester City.

That's a gap that looks like it will only get bigger this season with 7 points already between United and what looks to be progressive rivals in Liverpool and Manchester City... And personally I only see that being a few more points bigger by the time we hit the November international break.


One reason I don't want Mourinho to be sacked is I don't want the players to feel they can down tools whenever they are upset with a manager in the future. That would be the biggest mistake in an era of mistakes made by Dick 'Ed, but the situation may be untenable if United suffer through the tough fixture list coming up over the next month.

It still feels like a matter of time before Mourinho is moved on and Manchester United will be back to square one with their haphazard recruiting, which seems to be based on tracking players Manchester City have been linked with, and also Dick 'Ed will be picking his fourth manager since Sir Alex Ferguson retired.

I do think Mourinho would have had considerably more success if he had taken over immediately after Sir Alex retired and the transition from the long-term manager into the new era may have been more comfortable. Now United fans have had to support three managers who look to have been out of their depth or past their sell by date.

So where would I go from here? If it was a short term appointment I would actually consider Arsene Wenger who could instil a positive brand of football at the very least.

However like Louis Van Gaal and Mourinho, Wenger may have seen his best days pass him by and instead I would perhaps consider Roberto Martinez as someone who could be prized away from his current team.

Diego Simeone would be a popular choice, while Antonio Conte has had success in the Premier League, but I don't see the former leaving Atletico Madrid and the latter may not want to work in the constraints that saw his time with Chelsea strained at the end.

Martinez is a manager who likes to play attacking football, although his defensive work can be questioned. However this looks to be an era when attacking football is paying off spectacularly and Martinez could employ a style where attack is the best form of defence for Manchester United.

He has experience of the Premier League in his time with Wigan Athletic and Everton and while he didn't have the best success with the latter Martinez could have learned from the mistakes he made. Importantly he has won silverware in England unlike David Moyes and the work being done with Belgium has to be respected.

I am not sure Martinez would get the excitement levels of the fans moving too much on his appointment, but the style of play will quickly erase the doubters around him. For the first time in years the football would be enjoyable and the Spaniard would be my surprise choice to take over.

The next manager has to be someone who knows the Premier League and plays the kind of football the fans are craving. Martinez does tick both boxes and I think he could have some real success with United especially with some of the young, attacking players already at the club.


Ideally this will all be a moot point and United can win at Stamford Bridge, the Vitality Stadium and at the Etihad Stadium while doing the double over Juventus in the Champions League.

I would love that to be the case.

It feels more like a hope than a real belief though and the pressure could return on Mourinho immediately out of the international break if United were to lose at Stamford Bridge.

Things do need to change at Old Trafford from the very top of the club, but at this time it is the manager who is going to be the scapegoat for the performances and it does feel the Newcastle United win only papered over the obvious cracks.

Hopefully Jose Mourinho is going into the November international break with some real positive momentum behind him, but the manager looks unhappy, the players look lost around the tactics and the fans are getting more and more irritated by the performances of the board.

It all feels toxic around United despite the win last time out and I can only see it all coming to a head in the weeks coming up.

NBA Picks October 2018 (October 16-21)

The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers were expected to compete in the NBA Finals back in June and after a long regular season following by a month of Play Off Basketball we did get to the Finals that most were looking forward to seeing.

Once again it was the Warriors who turned out to be far too good for the Cavaliers and they will go into the 2018/19 season as the favourites to win a fourth title in five season with a three-peat the expectation of the layers and the fans.

Getting out of the Western Conference may be the toughest task for the Warriors when it comes to repeating as Champions with the Houston Rockets a big threat at the top of the Conference. However I think Golden State are playing with the motivation to give the Oracle Arena the send off they want by adding another Championship before moving to San Francisco in the 2019/20 season and the Warriors look like this group of players are going to provide one more big effort together before potentially splitting apart in the next off-season.

Rumours abound that Kevin Durant and potentially Klay Thompson could leave the Warriors at the end of the season and there is no doubt the Warriors would be significantly weakened if that happens.

And perhaps that leaves the door open for the LA Lakers to fill the void at the top of the Western Conference.


The big news this summer was the decision made by LeBron James to move to the LA Lakers from the Cleveland Cavaliers which has really opened things up in the Eastern Conference. The Cavaliers are clearly not the team to beat without James and the likes of the Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers and Toronto Raptors will believe they are set to make it to the NBA Finals.

I do like the Celtics who will have some real depth now that so many of their players have the experiences they earned last season after injuries decimated the roster. This time around Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving are back and Boston have a young and strong looking roster that should be able to come out of the Conference.

The 76ers and Raptors will have something to say about that, but it is very clear that the Eastern Conference is nowhere near as tough as the Western Conference this upcoming season. Whoever gets through to the NBA Finals will be an underdog against the Western Conference representative, although I do think the Boston Celtics will be able to provide a real challenge for any team they face in a best of seven Series as long as they stay healthier than last season.


LeBron James signing for the Lakers was a long rumoured move, but I am not sure he is going to be able to keep his sequence of NBA Finals appearances going now. The Lakers are someway short of the very best teams in the West and the signings they have made around James looks like a ticking time bomb in the 2018/19 season.

Instead the real focus will be seeing some of the younger players improve with the presence of James around them and snapping a five year absence from the Play Offs which just wouldn't have been considered a decade ago. At the end of the season I would expect the Lakers to make some big moves to bring in at least one huge name Free Agent to complement James and the young roster and maybe they will be a lot closer to returning to Championship contention in eighteen months from now.


Finally what of my New York Knicks- well I am expecting a top five Pick in the next Draft if I am being very honest. An injury to Kristaps Porzingis could see the young player miss the entire season and losing your best player before the season tips off shows how tough it is going to be.

Next season the Knicks will have cleared some space to add one or two big time Free Agents with rumours suggesting they will be putting a big deal together for Kevin Durant who has ties with the Knicks. Maybe the team will finally get back on a positive road, but we will have to suffer through a difficult season as fans of the Knicks.


The NBA Picks will begin on Tuesday as the regular season begins and I am going to continue the idea I had from last season to split the threads into weekly picks.

This week I will cover the games from Tuesday through to Sunday and then I will have a second thread which will cover the remainder of October. Keeping the threads shorter makes it easier for the reader as far as I am concerned and that is important.


Tuesday 16th October
One of the big news stories in the United Kingdom just hours before the first tip off of the regular season was Sky Sports had purchased the rights to show games from the NBA this year.

In recent years it has been BT Sport who have owned those rights, but those lapsed and for a while it looked like League Pass would be the only way to see live Basketball this season. Now we have at least five live games per week as well as the Play Off coverage at the end of the season, although personally I will keep hold of my League Pass so I can watch the teams I want to see more often than not.


Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Pick: There isn't much love lost between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics and the memory of the Eastern Conference Semi Final won't be far from the mind when they tip off the 2018/19 season.

Added to the intrigue is the departure of LeBron James from the Eastern Conference which means many are tipping one of these two teams to fill the void in the NBA Finals that is likely left by the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Last season the Boston Celtics did overachieve when you think big Free Agent signing Gordon Hayward was lost in the very first game. Kyrie Irving was another who missed the Play Offs but I like the experience the younger players would have earned with their run to the Eastern Conference Finals. Now they have both Irving and Hayward back and a real depth to their squad which makes the Celtics the favourites to win the Eastern Conference.

The key for the Celtics is going to be adjusting to having a 'Big Three' with Irving, Hayward and Al Horford. While those players will be huge for Boston you also don't want to take away the minutes from some of the talented youngsters, although that won't be an issue early in the season when Hayward is being eased back into the starting line up on a minutes restriction.

Philadelphia took a big step in their development last season with the likes of Ben Simmons showing they are going to be a star in this League in the years ahead. It was a long 'process' for the 76ers but they are reaping the rewards now and will be looking to make a statement on the opening day of the 2018/19 season by knocking off an Eastern Conference rival on the road.

The 4-1 loss to Boston in the Play Offs would have hurt the 76ers who had been favoured in the first four games of that Series. The 76ers did win 50 regular season games last season which suggests they will be at the top of the Eastern Conference standings again, but the Celtics have a very strong recent record against Philadelphia and I think that could continue on the opening night.

Boston look deeper and being at home should give them the motivation to come through with a statement win to open the season. The mentality could be a bit different with Boston favoured unlike how it was in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals, but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games against the 76ers and they have won fourteen of the last sixteen regular season games between these teams.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors Pick: It is 'ring night' at the Oracle Arena which will be hosting Golden State Warriors basketball for the final time this season before the team moves to a new venue in San Francisco. This Arena has been one of the loudest in the NBA, even during the Golden State lean years, and the Warriors players have made it clear they want to make it a memorable year for the loyal fans who have been behind them over the last forty years.

Creating a dynasty will also be on the minds of the Golden State Warriors who will be looking for a fourth title in five years as they go for the 'Three-peat' having swept the Cleveland Cavaliers for the NBA Championship in June.

The core of the team are together for this season and the signing of DeMarcus Cousins gives the Warriors another crease to their game. Cousins may not be available until he recovers from an achilles injury that prematurely ended his season last January, but this Golden State team looks strong in every position.

Any talk about Free Agency with both Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant expected to test that market in the summer of 2019 will be put aside as the Warriors look to seal their place in the NBA Finals out of a tough Western Conference.

One of their rivals could be the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they look weakened for the opening night game at the Oracle Arena. Andre Roberson has been ruled out and it looks like Russell Westbrook is going to be extremely limited at best which makes it tough to see the Thunder staying with Golden State in this game.

Th Thunder have to show a little more dynamism in the way their approach the Offensive side of the ball if they are going to get closer to the top teams in the Western Conference. They can be accused of being a little predictable and I do wonder if they are going to be able to stick with Golden State when the Warriors have what has become a patented surge during games.

Steve Kerr is looking for better Defensively from his Warriors than what they showed in the pre-season, while Durant has warned of not being distracted by the celebrations of the last title they won. The Warriors do look stronger than the Thunder going into the opening day though and I do like Golden State to find a way to pull away and cover this big number.

Golden State should be inspired by Durant to face his former team and the Warriors are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven at home against Oklahoma City. Overall it is 9-2 against the spread in the last eleven in favour of Golden State and they look a little healthier than Oklahoma City going into this game which means I favour them to produce a big win.


Wednesday 17th October
I am going to take a watching brief with the NBA games to be played on Wednesday as the majority of teams begin their new seasons.

I was tempted by a couple of teams, namely Cleveland and Sacramento with the points, but I am not completely convinced with those selections and so I will miss out on Wednesday and keep an eye on the way things go.

Check in on Thursday to see if there are any selections to be made from the three games set to be played.


Thursday 18th October
The underdogs have made a very strong start to the NBA season, but that is perhaps not a big surprise considering it is so early in the 2018/19 campaign and teams are still finding their feet.

Both teams I name checked yesterday would have come back as winners, but it is best to not worry too much about that now. I simply won't make a play unless I am completely happy with things and Cleveland only covered thanks to a late foul and Toronto deciding to run out the clock.

The underdogs could do well in the first two games to be played on Thursday, but I have a favourite selected for the late game.


LA Lakers @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: Showtime is back in Los Angeles after the Lakers made the biggest splash of the summer by bringing in LeBron James from the Cleveland Cavaliers.

It wasn't a surprising move in terms of what being in Los Angeles will give to James who has started his own production company and moving into movies with Space Jam 2 lined up for LeBron, taking over from Michael Jordan in the lead role.

However from a playing point of view it is a surprise that James did not think about joining a roster like the one that has been built in Boston or Philadelphia. LeBron James has been a feature of the NBA Finals over the last decade from his two stints with the Cleveland Cavaliers that sandwiched a run with the Miami Heat, but the LA Lakers have missed the Play Offs for five years in a row and look some way away from challenging the very best teams in the NBA.

Moving into the Western Conference for the first time is a huge challenge for LeBron whose teams have dominated the Eastern Conference. While there are some challengers in that Conference, there is no doubt at all that the West is far more powerful and the Lakers look a distance behind the likes of the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets.

What would constitute a success for James and the Lakers? I think simply making the Play Offs would be huge, but this is a team with a mix of veterans and youth who have to learn to play together. It is definitely going to take time for the Lakers to find their groove, although the public are backing them heavily with the points in their opening game of the season.

I am going to oppose that when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers who are looking to rebound from an embarrassing sweep at the hands of the New Orleans Pelicans in the NBA First Round of the Play Offs. They have kept their key players together though and that should mean the Trail Blazers are more likely to be settled into their roles in time for this one.

The attention may be on James and his first competitive game for the Lakers, but the building should be emotional as Portland play for the first time since Paul Allen passed away. Allen changed the fortunes of this franchise and you know the Portland players are going to be looking to play hard in memory of their owner.

Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum should be able to dictate things from the back court in this one as they expose some of the holes in the Lakers roster which really isn't as strong outside of LeBron as they would like. Some of the younger players will be inspired by having The King on their team, but Portland will be playing with plenty of motivation and will be looking to introduce James to the tough Western Conference.

Portland are 22-9 against the spread in their last thirty-one home games against the Lakers and the favourite is 10-3 against the spread in the last thirteen in this series. With an emotional building behind them, Portland will feel they can extend their 19-6-1 record against the spread from their last twenty-six home games and I will back the Trail Blazers to get the better of the Lakers in this opening game for both teams.


Friday 19th October
The LeBron James era in Los Angeles began with a loss on Thursday which means he has now made his debut for a new team four times and lost each time despite a strong personal performance.

It will take time for the Lakers to really know how to get the best out of James and his supporting cast and I do think this team will look to make a big splash in Free Agency next season when they can be considered a genuine title contender.

This season may be all about improving the young players on the roster and getting some Play Off experience, but even that is going to be difficult in the tough Western Conference. LeBron is right, it will take time for the team to gel together, but the West doesn't offer many easy nights and I think the Lakers will struggle out of the gate and will need teams to have poor days from the field to win games.


Charlotte Hornets @ Orlando Magic Pick: These two teams had contrasting opening game performances with the Charlotte Hornets coming up short against the Milwaukee Bucks and the Orlando Magic beating Florida rivals the Miami Heat. Both the Hornets and Magic were underdogs in their opening games, but more is expected from the Charlotte Hornets who are expected to challenge for Play Off spots in the weaker Eastern Conference.

That may be the goal for the Orlando Magic too if Steve Clifford is to be believed. The Head Coach believes he has the talent on the roster to surpass the expectations of Orlando having a transitional season, but this is a young team and that is going to come with the ups and downs that young players will have in a long season.

Clifford will have some extra motivation in this game as he faces his former team the Charlotte Hornets. He will look to inspire his players in a second home game of the season, but it will mean getting to grips with Kemba Walker who scored 41 points in the opening game defeat to the Milwaukee Bucks.

Last season turned into an underachievement for the Hornets but they are not ready to reset on their current roster as highlighted by keeping hold of Walker. He could be a potential trade target if Charlotte are struggling in February and it was their 36-46 regular season record that saw the firing of Steve Clifford.

Tony Parker has been signed by Charlotte to offer a winning mentality to the group and he was a part of the huge comeback effort a couple of days ago against the Bucks. There was a disappointment that the Hornets allowed themselves to fall into a big hole before fighting back as they clawed back from a 20 point deficit in the Fourth Quarter to lose by a point.

That effort needs to be replicated from the off in this one and I do think the Hornets can bounce back against an opponent they have dominated in recent meetings. The arrival of Clifford as Head Coach of the Magic will help them prepare for this game with his knowledge of the Charlotte roster, but a young team will find it tough to find consistency and Orlando are 18-39 against the spread following a win.

Charlotte are 8-1 against the spread in the last nine against Orlando and they are 12-3 against the spread in their last fifteen in Orlando. I expect them to come out with more urgency from the off in this one and Charlotte can edge out Orlando in this one.


Cleveland Cavaliers @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: Usually you would expect a home opener in a new season to be accompanied with fanfare and excitement, especially when it involves a team who made the Play Offs for the first time in thirteen seasons. The Minnesota Timberwolves also ended with their first winning season in that time at the end of the 2017/18 campaign, but a tough summer means there is going to be a slightly toxic atmosphere inside Target Center.

Jimmy Butler demanded a trade from the Timberwolves with accusations that his team-mates are not interested in winning. A couple of trades have since fallen apart and that means Butler remains on the roster with the fans ready to serenade him with boos in the home opener.

It is a stunning turn of events in Minnesota with the best player and the fans at odds with one another and it is clear that Butler is not getting along with the likes of Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. Those two are likely to be the key pieces that Minnesota will look to build around, but the situation at this team won't be resolved until Butler is moved on.

Minnesota came up just short against the San Antonio Spurs in their opening game, but they have to ignore what is happening in the stands and try and focus on their basketball.

They can do that against the Cleveland Cavaliers who were blown out by the Toronto Raptors in their first game since LeBron James opted out of his contract and moved to the LA Lakers. There isn't much expectation in Cleveland and the pressure is on Kevin Love, a former Timberwolves player, to go back to the kind of basketball which made him such an attractive trade to the Cavaliers five years ago.

It will be tough on Love because the Cavaliers look like a roster that is going to have a hard time barring some big trades during the course of the season. Defensively they look like a team that will find it hard to shut down opponents and their shooting is not going to be as effective as when LeBron was playing for them and opening things up around the court.

Cleveland are 10-21 against the spread in their last thirty-one games against the Western Conference, while they have a miserable 14-40-2 record against the spread when losing a game by double digits. The recent visits to Minnesota have been better, but I think the Cavaliers will struggle to keep up with the scoring power of the home team.

There is the doubt of what the atmosphere is going to do to the players and whether they will wilt under that pressure. However Jimmy Butler is not someone who is going to be bothered by what people perceive him to be and I think he can lead the Timberwolves to a big home win and give the fans something to smile about as they leave the first game at the Target Center this season.

MY PICKS: 16/10 Boston Celtics - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
16/10 Golden State Warriors - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/10 Portland Trail Blazers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/10 Charlotte Hornets - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
19/10 Minnesota Timberwolves - 8 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

October Update: 2-1, + 0.82 Units (3 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

NBA Picks October 2017 (October 17-22)

Things seem to move at a rapid rate in life and you can start seeing that when you notice a new NBA season is just about to get underway. It feels like only yesterday we were watching the Golden State Warriors earn revenge over the Cleveland Cavaliers to win the NBA Championship, yet here we are ready to go again.

The season is actually starting a little earlier than usual as the League does its best to avoid the kind of schedules that have been criticised over the years. It should be reducing back to back games for teams over the course of the next nine months and that has been done in an effort to help player welfare which should be a concern of any sporting association.

Vegas is expecting more of the same this season with the favourite for the NBA Finals being another match up between the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Not many would go against that, but other teams have started to make moves to try and get closer with the likes of the Boston Celtics, Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets making big moves to close the gap to the two teams who have dominated the NBA landscape.

The biggest news had to be Kyrie Irving demanding a trade from the Cleveland Cavaliers and then receiving his wish by being moved to the Boston Celtics. Isaiah Thomas went the other way although he won't be available for a couple of months at least, but it was the move that raised the most eyebrows in the off-season.

Thomas himself wasn't impressed with the Celtics, although he might have moved into a better situation being teamed up with the likes of LeBron James and Kevin Love. The Cavs have made some other moves designed to try and get closer to the Golden State Warriors, although I am convinced the biggest threat to Golden State winning another title is going to come from within the Western Conference.

Houston have brought in Chris Paul to join James Harden, while the Thunder have held onto Russell Westbrook and brought in Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to try and match the 'super team' the Warriors have put together.

You can never rule out the likes of the San Antonio Spurs while the LA Lakers will be fun to watch if only to see what kind of crazy talk LaVar Ball can produce.

There are some fun teams in the NBA that will provide entertainment, but picking against there being another NBA Final involving the Cavaliers and Warriors is brave with the current rosters.

One team that may not be so much fun to watch are my New York Knicks who are in a complete rebuild mode. There are some young talented players on the roster, but the NBA is a harsh learning ground and the Knicks look like one of the weaker teams in the NBA this season, especially on the Defensive side of the court.


As I did last season, I will break up the NBA Picks into smaller threads than the full month threads I did previously. I think it makes it easier to read and I will use the Featured Post to have them at the top of the pile whenever possible.

The first couple of months the NBA is really behind the NFL and College Football games that are played as well as the Major League Baseball Play Offs which are concluded over the next couple of weeks. That does mean the NBA may struggle for the same headlines, while this is also a learning curve for teams that have been put together and beginning to play competitive basketball together for the first time.

It can make for some weird results, but that is just the nature of the beast and always the pressure of trying to find the right angles when making your picks.

Anyway let's hope for a really good 2017/18 season.


Tuesday 17th October
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The NBA schedule came out before the major trade between the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers had been put through, but the season could not have asked for a better start than Kyrie Irving returning to Cleveland with his new team.

Irving surprised everyone by asking for his trade from the Cleveland Cavaliers weeks after losing the NBA Finals to the Golden State Warriors, although there was a suggestion that loss had nothing to do with his decision. Instead Irving had made it clear he no longer wanted to play with LeBron James and instead wanted to join a team that would make him the focal point of any success they were going to have.

The Celtics gave up plenty to upgrade the Point Guard position and that included seeing Isaiah Thomas moving in the other direction. Thomas won't be ready to play against his former team, but Jae Crowder will be available for the Cavaliers having been another player used to sweeten the deal and bring Irving to Boston.

The Celtics have also signed Gordon Hayward this off-season as they try and edge closer to the Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. Irving, Hayward and Al Horford might not have the same star power as other 'Big Three' teams around the NBA, but the Celtics do look stronger than they did a few months ago when losing in the Conference Finals to Cleveland and will be looking to make a point on Tuesday in the opener.

Like many teams in the NBA, Cleveland have also made some roster moves with veterans Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade and Jose Calderon joining the team which is dominated by the presence of LeBron James. That may not be the case on Tuesday as James has been banged up and his decision to play in this one will come down to the final hours ahead of the tip off.

Limited action in the pre-season means James is likely to be rusty anyway and the Boston Celtics have to see this as a chance to make a statement. The starting five for the Cavaliers has a new look compared with last season and missing their leader in James could be the kind of blow it is tough to recover from when trying to build chemistry.

You simply can't ignore that Cleveland are 4-23 when James does not play since he returned to the Cavaliers and they have lost their last 11 in a row in that situation. It feels like a game that means more to Boston regardless to show their trade for Irving is going to put them over the hump in the Eastern Conference and I like the fact that the Celtics are 3-0-1 against the spread in the last four at Cleveland.

The road team is 12-3-1 against the spread in the last sixteen in the series and I think the Celtics can play enough strong Defense to help them with the points they are receiving.


Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors Pick: Like many teams in the Western Conference, the Houston Rockets were very much focused on what they could do to get closer to the Golden State Warriors who have dominated over the last three years. The decision to bring in Chris Paul from the LA Clippers was taken, but the Rockets couldn't add Carmelo Anthony as they tried to and they still look like they will be a little short.

Any team with Paul and James Harden won't believe that to be the case, and the Rockets do look stronger than last year. They are a dangerous team running the systems Mike D'Antoni insists and I do expect Houston to do a lot of scoring, while they have added some less heralded players to try and do the dirty work on the Defensive side of the court to slow down the Golden State Warriors.

It will take time for Paul and Harden to get on the same page though, especially when it comes to the ball-handling on key possessions, and Houston may have some teething problems to overcome. Paul has also suffered some key injuries during Play Off runs for the LA Clippers which may have some questioning the status of his health and whether he can get through a long and arduous regular season slog in the NBA.

An immediate test against the Golden State Warriors, the defending NBA Champions, will show Houston how far they have got to go. Opening games can be tough for teams in a position the Golden State Warriors are in too as they may not be completely focused for a regular season game when the plaudits from last season are still going to be ringing in their ears, but they look much more settled than most of their rivals.

Golden State just haven't made any moves to the starting rotation which means the consistency should see them get off the ground immediately. Adding the likes of Nick Young are a bid to improve the rotation of the team which was already at a high level and the Warriors are clearly enjoying their time together.

This time around they don't have to try and fit in a new piece like they did twelve months ago with Kevin Durant arriving. Now Durant will feel like one of the team and he showed in the NBA Finals that he may be the best player in a loaded Warriors team that can look to Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green to give them a spark.

It is a lot of points to ask the Warriors to cover when you think of the Offensive power the Houston Rockets have. However I think the Warriors are more settled with their team all knowing what to expect from each other compared with the Houston Rockets who will be working Chris Paul into the system and who might be learning what him and Harden want to do in clutch moments.

Golden State have dominated the Houston Rockets in recent years and they are 5-1 against the spread in the last six in the series while also being 4-1 against the spread in the last five at the Oracle Arena against the Rockets. I will be looking for the Golden State Warriors to cover a big number in this one too.


Wednesday 18th October
I actually have no idea where to start with Gordon Hayward's devastating injury suffered just five minutes into his debut for the Boston Celtics. It's an injury that is a huge setback for the player and the Celtics in general and I think the most gruesome sports injury I have seen in a long time if not ever.

I just hope recovery can see Hayward come back to something like his best form, but it is a long road back for the All-Star and you can only wish the best for him.

Brooklyn Nets @ Indiana Pacers Pick: It looks to be a rebuilding year for the Brooklyn Nets and the Indiana Pacers who have lost their top players in the off-season. The Nets have seemingly been in a rebuild forever and that has seen their owner put them up for sale although he does want two billion dollars for the franchise and their lovely home.

Losing Brook Lopez in a trade to the Los Angeles Lakers has at least given the Nets something to build around as they were given D'Angelo Russell, a former Number 2 overall pick in the Draft. The Lakers have a new young core to build around, but Russell is a talented player that at least gives the Nets some hope for the future and the direction this franchise is trying to head.

The Nets are likely to be starting three new starters out of their five and that is going to mean a learning curve for the team. They have signed a couple of veterans to help out, but the Nets have a lot of ground to make up for after finishing with the worst record in the NBA last season.

The expectation is that Brooklyn are going to have a difficult season and the same can be said for the Indiana Pacers despite the Eastern Conference being an open one outside of the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics. Paul George made it clear that he was not going to be extending his contract with the Pacers so the decision was made to trade him to the Oklahoma City Thunder and that means Indiana have a big hole to fill in.

Victor Oladipo came over in the trade that took George to Oklahoma City, while Jeff Teague was allowed to move on which means a new back court will begin for the Pacers this season. Oladipo is a player with potential to grow despite not reaching the heights some many have had for him, while Darren Collison has shown he is a solid veteran.

Myles Turner figures to be the key player for Indiana who are trying to speed up the Offense and I am not sure the Pacers are going to better despite the players feeling the movement is superior to last season. They are a young team that will likely make some mistakes, but this is a game the Pacers have to feel they can win and I do think they will do that and cover the spread.

The favourite and the home team have strong numbers against the spread in recent games between these teams and I think the Indiana Pacers may have the superior back court which can help them win this one.


Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics Pick: You could see it in the eyes of the players on the court and the Cleveland Cavaliers bench, who could not turn away quick enough, that Gordon Hayward had suffered a devastating injury on the opening night of the season. The loud crash saw Hayward break his ankle and his lower leg which has left his season in tatters and also put the Boston Celtics behind the eight ball having invested so much in bringing Hayward in this off-season.

The players and fans won't be concerned about the financial outlay, but they are worried about where Hayward's absence will leave the team. They will begin to find out as Boston don't have time to sit and feel sorry for themselves but instead are straight back on the horse in a back to back to open the 2017/18 season.

After rallying to take the lead against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Boston Celtics ended up barely on the wrong side of the loss on the opening night. Now they have to take on one of those teams in the Eastern Conference who have big things expected of them, even if they are not quite up to the standard of the Cavaliers.

The Milwaukee Bucks have stayed pat with the team that overachieved last season and that may be the best decision they could make. This was a team with a young core who would have learned from the experiences from making the Play Offs last season and I think the Bucks can certainly take another step in their development.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Malcolm Brogdon are a stellar set of young players with Antetokounmpo ready to take the next step towards being a superstar in this League. Brogdon was the Rookie of the Year last year and the Bucks are feeling confident despite not having Jabari Parker who is recovering from an ACL injury.

Being back at home has to give Boston plenty of motivation, but I have to worry about this spot. They will have realised the full extent of the Hayward injury with the players likely to be worrying about their team mate rather than focusing on this game, while the Celtics also put in a huge effort to come up short in their loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday.

Boston do have a solid record playing the second of a back to back, but Milwaukee are 11-5 against the spread in the last sixteen games played in Boston. The road team is 8-3 against the spread in the last eleven in the series and the underdog is 11-4 against the spread in the last fifteen in this series.

I hate opposing Boston after the devastating injury they saw to one of their team-mates on Tuesday, but this is not a good spot for them and that can't be ignored. I will take the points with the Milwaukee Bucks.


Thursday 19th October
Chicago Bulls @ Toronto Raptors Pick: The NBA season has gotten underway for most teams, but the Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls have had to wait a couple more days before they get their opener going. There are completely different expectations for the two teams going into the new season with Toronto expected to be amongst the top contenders in the Eastern Conference and the Chicago Bulls potentially finishing with the worst record in the NBA.

Much of that is down to the moves the Bulls have made in the off-season with some of the veteran players on the roster being moved on. The biggest move had to be the decision to trade Jimmy Butler to the Minnesota Timberwolves and that means Chicago are going into the season with a young roster.

Those players are clearly not all on the same page at the moment though as evidenced by Nikola Mirotic being ruled out for the next few weeks with a fracture in the facial area. That came after he got into an altercation with Bobby Portis and resulted in the Bulls suspending the latter too which means they are likely to be shorthanded in this one and that is not good news when facing the Toronto Raptors who have managed to keep a significant portion of their core together.

Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Serge Ibaka remain in Toronto and that gives them the continuity that others team can miss early in the season. There is a new system in place which is going to ask the Raptors to inject more speed in their play and also look for more three pointers as they try to close the gap on the top teams in the Eastern Conference, although how quickly the likes of Lowry and DeRozan adjust is going to be a key.

These are two players that love to crash the paint and force their way onto the foul line so it may take some time for the new system to be accepted by the players. However the Raptors look in a good place to snap a 0-7 record against the spread in their last seven home games against the Chicago Bulls.

The underdog has been dominant in the recent series, but this time Toronto look to have a big edge on the court in terms of the experience and the quality of player they can call upon. Add in the issues Chicago have been having which has been highlighted by the Portis-Mirotic altercation and the Bulls could be shorthanded for this first game of the season and I am going to back the Raptors to cover a big spread.


New York Knicks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: There is a lot of excitement around the Oklahoma City Thunder who have signed Paul George and Carmelo Anthony to join Russell Westbrook. Bringing three big players together is supposed to give the Thunder every chance to close the gap between them and the Golden State Warriors, although there remain some big questions as to which of these three players will dominate the shots at clutch times in the Fourth Quarter.

Those questions will be answered during the course of the season, but the headlines on Thursday will very much focus on Anthony facing his former team, the New York Knicks, in their season opener.

Melo was forced out of New York by management and the only surprise was that it took so long for a trade to be concluded that would send Anthony away from the Knicks. He still has a lot of love for the fans and his team-mates that have been left behind, but you can hear the anger and disappointment in the voice when Anthony speaks about how he was treated in the final months in New York.

That should mean Anthony is playing with a lot of motivation in this one and the Thunder are likely to be the much stronger team on the day. The New York Knicks now have a young core of players that they want to develop, but that means the 2017/18 season looks to be one of transition and one that is going to see their young players go through some teething troubles.

Kristaps Porzingis is expected to take over the Knicks as the young leader on the team, while Frank Ntilikina should be good to go in the opener as the new ball handler for the Knicks. However this is a team that looks like it will have some major problems on the Defensive side of the court and Oklahoma City certainly have the players to expose those vulnerabilities.

Doug McDermott and Enes Kanter are facing their former team too and could want to show the Thunder what they are missing, but I think the home team are clearly superior and should show that on the night. There will be a learning curve for the Oklahoma City Thunder moving forward, but I think they can score too many points for the Knicks in the opener and I will look for them to cover a big spread.


Friday 20th October
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: Both teams opened the season with a win over the Boston Celtics and some may see this as a chance to lay down an early marker for being the dominant force in the Eastern Conference. It does feel like the game means more to the Milwaukee Bucks to prove they are ready to take the next step in their development as this young team build from their Play Off appearance from last season.

That's not to say this doesn't mean anything to the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the only team that can make a big statement are the Bucks. If the Cavaliers lose no one is going to lose faith that they are the team to beat in the Conference, but a Bucks loss will raise more questions as to how far away Milwaukee are from being able to challenge the very best teams in the Conference and then the NBA.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been speaking about become a MVP candidate this season and he showed in the opening game what he is all about. Now he comes up against LeBron James who continues to show why he is the premier player in the NBA although Kevin Durant may have something to say about that.

James was in special form on opening night although that game was overshadowed by the injury to Gordon Hayward of the Boston Celtics. I do think that had an impact on the Celtics when they faced the Bucks the next evening and even then the game was very close before Milwaukee pulled away at the end.

Both Cleveland and Milwaukee showed they can perform on the Defensive side of the court against the Celtics, but I do think the Cavaliers might be the more efficient team on the other side of the court. The key to the outcome is likely to be which of the teams can perform best on the boards and I do think that will be close which is part of the reason the oddsmakers are not really able to offer a big spread in this one.

Picking a winner isn't easy but I am leaning towards the Cavaliers as I can see a situation where the occasion could get to the Bucks. I just feel they might want this too much as they look to prove they belong with the elite, but I think that will be motivation for the Cavaliers to show why they are still the team to beat.

Cleveland have won six of their last seven against Milwaukee and that includes the last three last season after dropping the first game. I will look for a good start for the Cavaliers in this one and I will back them to cover the spread in what is a big early season game.


Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: The Minnesota Timberwolves made one of the stand out trades in the off-season when they were able to bring in Jimmy Butler from the Chicago Bulls. Butler had plenty of success playing under Tom Thibodeau when they were both in Chicago and Butler joined a really young and talented core of players.

Jeff Teague and Taj Gibson have been signed to offer some veteran guidance to Butler, Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns and the Timberwolves are a trendy pick to make the Play Offs this season. It has been a long time since Minnesota were able to play Play Off basketball and it has to be seen as the next step of the development for some of their players.

The arrival of Teague meant Ricky Rubio was not needed any more in Minnesota and he has joined the Utah Jazz so will be in town for the home opener. The Timberwolves were beaten at the San Antonio Spurs in their opening game, while Rubio was influential in helping the Jazz knock off the Denver Nuggets before heading to the Target Center for this game.

The Jazz did lose Gordon Hayward in the off-season and most are expecting them to take a step back, although they will be hoping to keep the Defensive shape together that was so important to Utah last season. It will be interesting to see how they get on with that in the weeks ahead, but I do think the Jazz can make these points count.

At the moment I think the Timberwolves are going to be overrated being the trendy pick for a place in the Play Offs, and so they are dealing with some spreads that are skewed in favour of their opponents. I think Utah will be motivated to spoil the party especially with Rubio returning to his former team and I will take the points with the Jazz.


Saturday 21st October
Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks Pick: The New York Knicks might be my favourite NBA team, but they are going to have some real problems over the 2017/18 season as they look poor Defensively and the young players need time.

The only benefit for them in this one is they are facing a Detroit Pistons team who are off a back to back and who have a really poor record at Madison Square Garden. That might be the reason the Knicks are only narrowly set as the underdog, but I think the Pistons are considerably stronger and should be too good on the night.

Detroit have the superior bench and I think they can be backed here to cover on the road.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz Pick: The Utah Jazz narrowly lost at the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night, but that might have taken something out of the tank. It is tough to get up and chase down the Oklahoma City Thunder shooters in this back to back and Utah have a really poor record in that spot over the last year.

However there are some teething problems for the Thunder which was evidenced in the win over the New York Knicks despite eventually pulling away. Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Camelo Anthony will get on the same page, but it may take some time.

That is likely to see the Thunder being over-rated in the weeks ahead, but I will back them here with Utah perhaps having invested a little more in their loss last night.

The Thunder are also 4-1 against the spread in the last five in the series and they might have enough shooting to win this one and cover the number too.

MY PICKS: 17/10 Boston Celtics + 4 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
17/10 Golden State Warriors - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/10 Indiana Pacers - 3 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
18/10 Milwaukee Bucks + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
19/10 Toronto Raptors - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/10 Oklahoma City Thunder - 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/10 Cleveland Cavaliers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
20/10 Utah Jazz + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/10 Detroit Pistons - 2 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
21/10 Oklahoma City Thunder - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Oct 17-22 Update: 8-2, + 5.37 Units (10 Units Staked, + 53.7% Yield)

NBA Picks 2016 (October 25-31)

How can anyone forget the drama of the NBA Finals as the Cleveland Cavaliers fought back from a 1-3 deficit to defeat the Golden State Warriors and end the long wait that city has had for a Championship team? It might become two Championship teams if the Cleveland Indians can win the World Series which begins on the same night as the NBA begins the 2016/17 season and there is little doubt there will be a party atmosphere in Cleveland as their Cavaliers receive their Championship rings.

The general landscape of the NBA has changed since Cleveland won Game 7 to take the Championship in June after their defeated opponents made easily the biggest splash in Free Agency by signing Kevin Durant to an already loaded roster. The Golden State Warriors are unsurprisingly the favourites to win the NBA Championship this season and they do look the strongest team in the Western Conference by some margin.

The likely rivals for the Warriors have been weakened significantly with Oklahoma City losing their star to Golden State. Russell Westbrook has committed his future to the Thunder in the aftermath of Durant's decision to move on which is perhaps an even bigger surprise than KD moving to Golden State, but Oklahoma City might forever look back at their 3-1 lead over Golden State in the Western Conference Finals in 2016 as the moment when their best chance for a Championship slipped away.

Tim Duncan has finally decided to retire and I think the San Antonio Spurs might be in something of a transitional season, while the LA Clippers and Houston Rockets don't seem to have the depth to stay with Golden State over seven games. The Western Conference used to be a loaded one but I think this time Golden State might be far too strong for their rivals and we potentially will see a couple of the younger teams take a step forward with the New Orleans Pelicans, Minnesota Timberwolves and Utah Jazz perhaps beginning to fulfil their potential.

The Cleveland Cavaliers continue to look the pick of the teams in the Eastern Conference, but there might be a few more obstacles to overcome with the Boston Celtics, Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls potentially able to challenge them.

Even my New York Knicks look like they have made some strong moves to get their roster turned around, but depth is going to be an issue while they have big names with injury issues in recent seasons to overcome. Derrick Rose is the player looking to rejuvenate his career after surprisingly being traded out of Chicago, but his health has been the biggest setback and Knicks fans everywhere will be hoping Rose can return to his very best and then perhaps a season exceeding expectations is possible.

The Eastern Conference looks deeper than the Western Conference this time around, but the Knicks have to be thinking of a Play Off place at the least this season and that can be achieved if they are able to get this new look roster gelled together early in the year.


The NBA Picks will be made in weekly threads as I decided to do last season. There will be times in a long season when I decide to skip picks because I might not feel any confidently and others when I am feeling good about picks. These weekly threads will be updated daily regardless and will usually run from Monday to Sunday.

The season begins on Tuesday this week and I am going to keep all the October picks in one thread so this one will go through next Monday. From then I will have the first November thread running from Tuesday through Sunday and so on.

The last couple of seasons could have been better for the picks and I hope I have made the right adjustments to put together a positive few months.


Tuesday 25th October
The opening day of the NBA League season will see the two teams that competed in the NBA Finals playing on the same night, albeit against different opponents at home.

New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: It has been a few months where the Cleveland Cavaliers could have enjoyed their time as NBA Champions, but now they have to come out and prove it all over again. Their main rivals have improved, but the Cleveland Cavaliers won't be worrying about the Play Offs just yet and instead will focus on rebuilding the chemistry for another deep push come April.

The opening day of the new season is when the Cavaliers will be given their Championship rings and it should be a celebratory mood around Cleveland who will see their Major League Baseball team, the Indians, begin the World Series against the Chicago Cubs on the same evening.

There haven't been too many roster moves made by Cleveland in the summer as they have liked the balance they have on the team. JR Smith has only recently signed a four year deal with the Cavaliers to bring back the team from last season but it does raise questions as to how many minutes he can offer in the opening weeks of the new season.

LeBron James has been told he will not have the same minutes as last season with Cleveland looking to keep the best player in the League healthy for the Play Off run they are surely going to have. The Cavaliers look the best team in the Eastern Conference and it would be a big surprise if LeBron James' run in reaching the NBA Finals was to come to an end.

It has proven difficult in the past for teams being given their rings and having banners raised to produce their best in the game they are receiving their prizes. The defending Champions have a poor 3-7 record against the spread in these games and Cleveland are giving up plenty of points to the new-look New York Knicks.

After a couple of years of questions being raised for Phil Jackson when it comes to roster construction, Knicks fans might be feeling more confident about this season. Derrick Rose, Brandon Jennings, Joakim Noah and Courtney Lee join Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis to give the Knicks a decent looking team on paper, but they will need good health and for the players to gel quickly in an Eastern Conference which is deeper than it has been in a number of years.

The likes of Rose and Anthony might be taking envious looks at the Cavaliers as they remain two of the better players of recent years who are still searching for their first Championship win. It will be a huge shock if they can change that together in New York this season, but the Knicks certainly have the feel of a stronger team although the depth of the roster remains a big concern.

The Knicks have covered in their last four visits to Cleveland and the last three have come as double digit underdogs. They are not quite getting that many points this time, but New York can make banner day a difficulty for Cleveland as it has been for many defending Champions, although it should be noted LeBron James' teams are 2-0 against the spread in that spot.

I just feel there is enough shooting in the New York team to keep this one close and I will take the points to open this season.


San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors Pick: This might feel like the start of another 'Super Team' era since Kevin Durant joined the Golden State Warriors in a similar manner to when the 'Big Three' got together at the Miami Heat. It took Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and LeBron James some time to get their act together, but I am not seeing the same kind of problems for the Golden State Warriors.

The first issue is that Durant is coming into a situation where most of the roster will know one another and building a chemistry involving three top players is different to when you are bringing in a Superstar into a solid spot like there is in Golden State. Durant's role is clearly divined before he got to Golden State unlike in Miami where Wade and James had to learn who was going to be the more dominant player first.

Durant should be incredibly good in the system the Warriors will run and I am struggling to see how Defenses are going to be able to contain Durant, Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. Even when they struggle, Draymond Green can step up Offensively and the Warriors are rightly set as the favourites to win the NBA Championship having come up short last season.

Andrew Bogut has been moved on, but Green can play the Center position when the Warriors want to challenge teams and I think Durant is going to be a comfortable fit into the Golden State rotation.

Immediately we will get to see how Golden State can shape up against the San Antonio Spurs who will be coming into a season without Tim Duncan in twenty years. The Spurs were hoping to bring in Durant in the off-season, but instead they have landed Pau Gasol and it will be interesting to see how an ageing roster can pick themselves up for a shot at the Championship again.

San Antonio have to find a way to compete with the speed that Golden State will play with and they can't hope for a Defensive battle with the Offensive power the Warriors have. The feeling is that this is going to be a transitional season for the Spurs and their record here has not been the best recently with their last three games seeing Golden State win and cover the number.

This could easily become a statement game for the Golden State Warriors who know they are going to be the pantomime villain for the rest of the season now they have brought in Durant. However this game is at home and they can use the love from the crowd to start pulling away with some big time shooting and I like the Warriors to cover.


Wednesday 26th October
That was not the best start to the season that I could have hoped for, but it is the first day of the season and I am not going to panic and think I had it all wrong. I was surprised by the Golden State Warriors performance as they looked a little flat, but I also think San Antonio Spurs deserve a lot of credit for the way they played in their first game without Tim Duncan in twenty years.

Most of the other teams in the League get underway on Wednesday and my picks are as follows.

Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics Pick: The Brooklyn Nets might be one of the worst teams in the NBA this season as they have changed philosophy over the last couple of seasons. They are going to have a new look this time around and the best Brooklyn fans can hope for is a few big upsets and a decent position in the lottery at the end of the season.

Half of the problems for Brooklyn began when trading away Draft picks to the Boston Celtics who have taken a much more pragmatic approach to roster construction. They might have had the 'Big Three' before that became a popular way to describe the Miami Heat with LeBron, Wade and Bosh, but the Celtics have taken the slow rebuild approach which is beginning to pay dividends.

Al Horford has come in to give Boston a little more star power and he does look like a good piece to bring in, while the Celtics have enough assets to perhaps make a big trade in-season. Marcus Smart looks like he will be missing in the season opener and likely for the rest of the week, but Boston have plenty of depth here and look like a genuine contender in the Eastern Conference if Horford and Isaiah Thomas can get on the same page.

They do look significantly better than the Brooklyn Nets who are holding onto Brook Lopez like their lives depend on it. I don't think anyone would be surprised if Lopez is traded at some point this season but first he has to learn a new system as the Nets try to be competitive.

Brooklyn has some nice pieces, but depth is going to be a problem for them and Boston have the kind of Defensive shape that can make life difficult for them. However I think the Nets might be getting too many points in this one with Boston perhaps looking beyond the home opener to the trip to the Chicago Bulls which comes on Thursday.

Covering double digit spreads has been something of a mixed bag for the Celtics and I can see Brooklyn having a run in the Fourth Quarter that sees them come within this number.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: Kevin Durant has moved on and Russell Westbrook has told the media he is no longer going to talk about it as the Oklahoma City Thunder become his team. Westbrook has taken Durant's decision pretty personally having felt disrespected in the manner in which he was told of the plans of his former brother in arms.

This could mean trouble for the rest of the NBA as Westbrook is likely to produce a huge season after signing an extended contract with the Thunder to everyone's surprise. There is still some talent left over in Oklahoma City, but it is clear the loss of Durant might have taken away their chances of winning the NBA Championship at least for this season.

Serge Ibaka is another player who has moved on and the Thunder open their season with some questions about what to expect from them. This still looks like a Play Off team in the Western Conference, but I think most would be absolutely stunned if they were in the Western Conference Finals let alone in a 3-1 lead over the Golden State Warriors like they were in May 2015.

Oklahoma City can erase some of the concerns that this squad is going to collapse in the face of Durant's exit by winning at the awful Philadelphia 76ers in their opening game of the season. The 76ers might be loaded with top picks, but there doesn't seem to be a game plan as to how to get this roster moving forward which has also seen some of their players irritated by what they perceive as hoarding in one position and finding no balance.

Nerlens Noel has spoken about having three potential starting Centers on the roster but two of those won't be playing in the opener including Noel. The 76ers will also be missing their Number 1 Draft Pick Ben Simmons for a few weeks and I think this team will need time but are more likely to be amongst the leading lottery teams again.

This feels a chance for Westbrook to prove that the Thunder are far from done just because Durant has left the club. The Thunder have a 5-2 record against the spread in their last seven in Philadelphia and I can see Oklahoma City just pulling away in the second half to record a win by double digits.


Houston Rockets @ LA Lakers Pick: The Mike D'Antoni era in Houston will begin this week against a team is familar with as his last Head Coach role was with the LA Lakers where he struggled despite having Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash on the roster. There was a feeling D'Antoni and Howard didn't really see eye to eye and it was no surprise that Howard was moved on to Atlanta by the Rockets in the off-season.

That wasn't just to do with the Head Coach though as James Harden had seemingly gotten fed up of Howard too and a number of other players on the roster was less convinced about the big man's antics. This is now fully Harden's team and the Houston Rockets have to be excited about the kind of Offensive output they are going to see from the D'Antoni system.

Players like Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon have been signed by the Rockets to join Harden and Trevor Ariza and I do think the Houston Rockets will be contending in the Western Conference. The improvements have to come Defensively and it does have to be noted that Mike D'Antoni teams have been known for what they do with the ball in hand rather than how they shape up without it.

Houston will be expecting to make a good start against the LA Lakers who are still a team in transition having struggled the last few seasons. Luke Walton has been brought in as the Head Coach and his time with the Golden State Warriors will encourage this fanbase that their former player can get the Lakers moving back up the Western Conference standings.

They won't like being in the shadow of the LA Clippers but the Lakers have to be excited about some of the young talent on the roster. Walton has to try and get that talent progressing and the Lakers have brought in some experienced heads to help them out, most notably Luol Deng.

It won't be a quick fix for the Lakers and I do wonder if they can keep up with the Houston Rockets who will be strong Offensively. Houston have a 16-5 record against the spread in the last twenty-one games between these teams and they have covered in their last 6 games at the Staples Center while Houston won all three games last season by an average of 19 points per game.

I do think the Lakers will be an improved team this time around, but they might have to settle for an opening loss to the Rockets. Houston do visit their big rivals the Dallas Mavericks in a couple of days, but Mike D'Antoni will also want to get one over on the team he last coached and I like the Rockets here.


Thursday 27th October
It has been a frustrating couple of days for the NBA Picks with a couple of surprising performances hurting them. You have to be disappointed by the start, but it is only a start in a long season and things can quickly be turned around.

Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: It will feel like a new beginning for the Atlanta Hawks and Dwight Howard when they open their new season on Thursday. Howard was the big name signing for the Hawks this off-season but he has to show that his dip in numbers in the 2015/16 season with the Houston Rockets is not the start of an irretrievable slide towards the end of his career.

Howard is a 'marmite' kind of player with many of his former teammates critical of his attitude and most NBA fans have never really forgiven him for the way he worked his way out of Orlando. He now returns to his home town team in a bid to show he is capable of being a leader and taking a team to the NBA Finals like he once did with Orlando.

Atlanta have changed too having moved for Howard when Al Horford decided he would take less money in a better situation with the Boston Celtics. There has been a transitioning from players like Jeff Teague too who have run the point for Atlanta in recent years as he was traded to the Indiana Pacers.

The Hawks still have some talent, but they could be battling with the likes of the Washington Wizards who are looking to get back to the Play Offs after missing out last year. The Wizards might need time with Bradley Beal never far away from an injury and John Wall recovering from his own knee surgeries which means his minutes will be limited at best in the opener.

Scott Brooks has come in as the new Head Coach for Washington who fired Randy Wittman unsurprisingly at the end of last season. The Wizards will hope Brooks can blend Beal and Wall in a way he did for the Oklahoma City Thunder with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, but it might take some time for both of these teams to really find the right formula at both ends of the court.

The four games last season were split two each with all four games ending in comfortable wins for the team taking home the 'W'. The Hawks were 1-1 against the spread in those games at home and I think this is going to be another tight game between them. I am giving the edge to Atlanta because they look to have a little more steadiness in the line up with players who have been here and a Head Coach whose system is in place.

I like the Hawks to find their way to a win and a cover in their opening game of the season.


LA Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: Last May will have been a big disappointment for the LA Clippers who failed to make an impact in the Western Conference Play Offs as they were hit hard by injuries. They were beaten four straight times by the Portland Trail Blazers in the First Round Play Off series and now the Clippers get a chance to put the record straight in their first game of the 2016/17 season.

It can't be a surprise that any team that has both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are going to be seen as a contender to win the NBA Championship and that is where the Clippers find themselves going into a new season. They looked to have made significant moves to bring in more veterans and offer more depth after those injuries derailed their last season and the Clippers might be the deepest they have been in the Doc Rivers era.

They do have to deal with a Portland Trail Blazers team that already have their first regular season win under their belts and who will have positive memories of winning four in a row to beat the Clippers in the Play Offs. Damian Lilliard has said he wants to win the MVP award and began the season with a strong game and the Trail Blazers look good Offensively.

There is still work to do on the other side of the court and a team like the Clippers have enough to expose those vulnerabilities. Playing in the Rose Garden has been difficult over the years, The Clippers did lose three times here in the Play Offs, but that was without Paul and Griffin who are both set to go in this one. Before those losses the Clippers had also won 3 out of 4 visits to Portland and they covered the spread in those wins.

With revenge on their mind, the LA Clippers can get off to a positive start with a big road performance and I will look for them to cover here.


Friday 28th October
It was a much better day for the NBA Picks on Thursday with both made coming in as fairly comfortable winners even if both the Washington Wizards and Portland Trail Blazers made strong runs at points during the game. On Friday there is a fairly heavy schedule of games from the NBA and hopefully I can find the right spots for a couple more winners to get this opening week turned right around.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Toronto Raptors Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers needed to dig down deep to see off the Toronto Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals last May, but their recent record in Canada is not great. They might have won in Game 6 on the road in Toronto, but previously had failed to win or cover in four straight visits north of the border.

Both teams opened the new season with dominating wins, but this is a big game for both to set a marker for the season. My feeling is that it means more to the Raptors to show they can compete with Cleveland this time around, but I have to say it is tough to oppose the Cavaliers when you see how loose they looked on Tuesday now the pressure of bringing a title home is no longer on them.

Even with that in mind, I can just see the Toronto Raptors wanting this one more than Cleveland and that can make all the difference in these tight games. There is no doubt in my mind that Cleveland will beat Toronto if they play again in the Play Offs, but this isn't that time of the season and the Cavaliers will head into a hostile environment and might not want to dig as deep as Toronto will.

The Raptors are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games against Cleveland and all of those times they have covered the spread has also seen Toronto win straight up. They are playing with more desire having been humiliatingly beaten by Cleveland in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals at home and I like the Raptors to give it their all to win this one and will take the points on offer.


Indiana Pacers @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: A couple of days ago I backed the Brooklyn Nets to cover with a lot of points on the road at the Boston Celtics because I felt the latter might be looking ahead to their big game with the Chicago Bulls. The Nets play their home opener in an identical position as their opponents, the Indiana Pacers, will be visiting the Chicago Bulls on Saturday.

However this time I think the Indiana Pacers can pull away for the cover on the road against the pretty average Brooklyn Nets.

Even though the Nets did come back to cover on Wednesday, they were actually down by 23 points in the Fourth Quarter and made use of the double digit points they received from the layers. The Pacers did need Overtime a couple of days ago to see off the Dallas Mavericks, but this is a team that looks to have made the right moves in the off-season to be a genuine contender in the Eastern Conference having missed the Play Offs last season.

Brooklyn are focusing on becoming a three point shooting team and that will make them dangerous whenever they are in receipt of a lot of points. This might not be enough though and Indiana have a 10-4 record against the spread here. I think the Pacers are a team looking to build some chemistry and so should be focused to prove they can work up the standings this season with a double digit win over one of the poorer teams in the NBA.


Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Pick: Both the Orlando Magic and the Detroit Pistons would have been disappointed in the effort made in opening game losses and both will be looking to bounce back effectively on Friday. The Pistons have been set as the favourite, but I think Orlando Magic can make the points count.

Reggie Jackson is out for the Pistons which means they are running their Offense through Ishe Smith and Beno Udrih who both had some issues with their shot in the blow out loss in Toronto. There also will be some concern about Andre Drummond and his health having seen him come out early in the last game and now in concussion protocol ahead of this one.

That is going to be a key for Detroit who frustrated Head Coach Stan Van Gundy by being dominated on the glass. It will be a problem again on Friday with Orlando bringing in players like Bismack Biyombo who will make his season debut here and give the Magic more of a presence in the paint. Serge Ibaka is another who can pound the glass and Nikola Vucevic is yet another big man who can give Detroit a lot of problems especially if Drummond is limited.

Orlando will be looking for improvements of their own having been upset by the Miami Heat at home but this looks a chance to match up better against the Pistons who have won and covered in the last six in the series between these teams. However the problems Detroit have had Offensively coupled with Orlando perhaps dominating the boards and earning second chance points could make the points being given to the Magic the key to the game.


Saturday 29th October
That was more than a frustrating evening for the picks with Kyrie Irving hitting a three pointer in the final minute which saw Cleveland win by three and cover by half a point, while the Indiana Pacers somehow blew a big lead heading into the Fourth Quarter against the Brooklyn Nets.

What happened to Orlando is anyone's guess as they were winning by one point and next time I looked they had been outscored 24-2 and eventually blown out.

Memphis Grizzlies @ New York Knicks Pick: There is going to be some teething problems for the New York Knicks who are blooding in new faces into a new system that they are unfamiliar with. Derrick Rose isn't panicking after one blow out loss to the NBA Champions Cleveland Cavaliers, but I am not sure the New York Knicks should be favoured to beat a competent team like the Memphis Grizzlies just yet.

The Grizzlies have dominated the recent series between the teams with six straight wins and by an average of over ten points per game. They are missing both Chandler Parsons and it looks like Tony Allen will join him which might leave Memphis shorthanded, but I still can't buy the New York Knicks as a favourite in this match up at this point of the season.

The public are buying that and the money is coming in on the home team, but I want to take the points with the Grizzlies. Zach Randolph is helping off the bench and it is in those moments when the benches face each other where Memphis can have their success.

As a Knicks fan I would love to be wrong, but taking the points here looks the right call.


Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls Pick: The Indiana Pacers are a much better team than they showed in the Fourth Quarter against the Brooklyn Nets on Friday, but I do wonder if they have left something out on the court before they visit the Chicago Bulls having to work harder than anticipated.

We saw the new look Bulls take advantage of the Boston Celtics in a similar situation earlier this week and I think Chicago can beat another of the Eastern Conference rivals on a back to back on Saturday. Dwyane Wade looked good in the colours of his home team and Chicago have the kind of roster that could make serious noise in the Play Offs if they can gel together in the coming months.

I also like the moves the Pacers make to improve their roster and I think they could be a surprise, but it is always tough to play the back to back like they have to deal with. I also think the Bulls might be able to win the battle on the glass which is going to be a key to the game and being at home should suit Chicago as they look to go 2-0 to open the season.

The Bull are being backed by the public, but I have to go with them here and I'll ask Chicago to cover the small spread at home. The Bulls have won their last 4 home games against Indiana Pacers and can perhaps use their freshness in the Fourth Quarter to get the job done in this one.


Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets Pick: The Portland Trail Blazers were barely beaten by the LA Clippers in their last game and they face the Golden State Warriors next which could make the game with the Denver Nuggets look like a bad spot for them. However I think the Trail Blazers have had enough time between this game and their last to be focused while the game with the Warriors is coming on Tuesday evening.

Portland are expected to be one of the better teams in the Western Conference while Damian Lilliard is playing with a big chip on his shoulder. Lilliard feels he is overlooked when it comes to talking about the best players in the NBA and that he hasn't been recognised with an All-Star place and the Point Guard has spoken about genuinely trying to win the MVP award.

His numbers have been excellent in the first two games and this is Lilliard's team although he is backed up with some quality players around him. They do look better than Denver, but controlling the boards is going to be the task for the Trail Blazers if they are going to win this game and I think they are capable of at least matching the Nuggets.

Portland have a good record here having gone 6-2 against the spread and being rested ahead of a trip to the Mile High City is huge for the Trail Blazers. Denver have a big run under their belts already with a win over the New Orleans Pelicans on the road, but I think the Trail Blazers may win the battle from outside the arc which can see them earn a big win on the road.


Sunday 30th October
Saturday could have been a really poor day again when the Portland Trail Blazers blew a big Third Quarter lead, but Damian Lillard came up big at the end of the Fourth Quarter and moving into Overtime to help them rally and come away with a big win on the road.

That also meant avoiding a losing day as I look to recover over the last two days of the month, although I could only find one pick I like on Sunday.

Dallas Mavericks @ Houston Rockets Pick: This is the second of a home and home games between the Houston Rockets and the Dallas Mavericks as Houston look to make it two out of two against the rivals. The Rockets won by eight on the road a couple of days ago and could face the Mavericks without Dirk Nowtizki for a second time.

That should give the Rockets the edge, but this is a team that is going to rely on the three point shot and that is going to make Houston a little inconsistent. Some days you do have bad shooting days in the office which will be tough to overcome, but Houston have a lot of star power outside the arc and James Harden remains a huge piece for them.

The Dallas Defense dealing with the three point shot has been disappointing so far this season, and that is a problem. They will likely have to lean on Harrison Barnes again who had a huge game a couple of days ago, but Houston can outscore them again and I like them to cover here.

Houston have a 11-4 record against the spread against Dallas overall and 6-1 against the spread in their last seven at home against the Mavericks. I will back them to extend that recent record against them.


Monday 31st October
Another frustrating day for the picks as Houston win their game but don't cover because they score a total of 30 points in the second half (scored 34 points in the First Quarter alone). I won't lie, that kind of stuff annoys me a lot because simply scoring at even slightly a higher rate makes it an easy day as they blow a 10 point lead going into the Fourth Quarter.

Yeah, I do want to see better luck than that going forward!!

Denver Nuggets @ Toronto Raptors Pick: It was yet another defeat for the Toronto Raptors against the Cleveland Cavaliers as they came so close to the upset, but couldn't quite get over the hump in the Fourth Quarter. A late three pointer from Kyrie Irving proved to be the difference and the Raptors are looking to bounce back in their third home game of the regular season.

They will need more from Kyle Lowry who has struggled in the opening two games and put too much pressure on DeMar DeRozan who has been doing really well. It is still early in the season and no one in this organisation needs to panic but the Raptors will have seen there is still some work to do to get closer to the Cavaliers and the importance of having their best players firing at the same time when they do play the best teams in the East.

On Monday they take on a team from the Western Conference as the Denver Nuggets come to town having won two of their last three games in Toronto. Denver had a disappointing loss on Saturday night to the Portland Trail Blazers at home but the roster might be back to full strength for this game and there were signs that a young team will be a tough out for anyone they face.

This does feel like it is a game that is coming at a tough time for Toronto between the Cleveland game and then a first road game at Washington. The Nuggets are travelling to Toronto, but have a few days off before they play again so can put their all into this one and I think they have the players that can crash the boards and make life tough for Toronto.

The concern has to be the Defensive side of the court where Denver have struggled in their opening two games, but I like the spot for the Nuggets and will take the points.


Chicago Bulls @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: A new look Chicago Bulls team have played really well with the ball being shared around amongst the top players on the roster. It was even more encouraging in the win over the Indiana Pacers on Saturday as Chicago actually opened the door for Doug McDermott to have the most shots which is remarkable considering the likes of Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade on the roster.

That bodes well for the Bulls going forward, but it will be interesting to see how they respond to the first road game of the season. It is a tough spot for the Bulls having a big game at the Boston Celtics to come next and now facing what was considered to be one of the weaker teams in the NBA, but the Brooklyn Nets have played well enough in their opening three games to be a threat here.

The Nets have a 1-2 record, but they have covered the spread in each game as the underdog as they have remained competitive throughout. It might be a little more difficult against the Bulls because Brooklyn rely on the three point shot to open up, but Chicago have actually defended the perimeter very well.

Focus should be there knowing how competitive Brooklyn have been and Chicago were also able to give their starters plenty of rest in the blow out win over the Indiana Pacers. Winning the rebound battle is going to be important for Chicago and I think the performances of the Nets to open the season will see Chicago come out and play with plenty of focus on the task at hand and not look ahead to the visit to Boston. I will take the Bulls to win this one and cover the spread.


Sacramento Kings @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: The DeMarcus Cousins versus Dwight Howard match up is going to be a huge part of this Sacramento Kings visit to the Atlanta Hawks with both teams in good form to open the season. The Hawks have moved on from Al Horford and Jeff Teague, but have not missed a beat with easy wins over Washington and Philadelphia, while the Kings have a new Head Coach who has helped them go 2-1 ahead of this five game road trip.

How the Kings do on the road may determine whether they are good enough to earn a surprising Play Off place at the end of this season. Keeping Cousins focused and happy is also important while Sacramento have a solid complement to the big man in Rudy Gay who has played well.

It will be a big challenge at the Atlanta Hawks where the Kings have lost nine in a row and the Hawks can point to their strong Defensive performances in the first two games which has helped them pull clear of opponents. They have also been strong on the glass, although that will be tested by Cousins and the Kings on Halloween.

If the Hawks can somehow still win the rebounding battle by keeping Howard out of foul trouble, I do think they can take advantage of their early schedule to move to 3-0. Atlanta have dominated the Kings at home in recent seasons as they have covered in their last four at home against them and I like the Hawks to continue that run here.

MY PICKS: 25/10 New York Knicks + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
25/10 Golden State Warriors - 9 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
26/10 Brooklyn Nets + 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
26/10 Oklahoma City Thunder - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
26/10 Houston Rockets - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
27/10 Atlanta Hawks - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
27/10 LA Clippers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
28/10 Toronto Raptors + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
28/10 Indiana Pacers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
28/10 Orlando Magic + 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
29/10 Memphis Grizzlies + 2 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
29/10 Chicago Bulls - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
29/10 Portland Trail Blazers + 1 Point @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
30/10 Houston Rockets - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
31/10 Denver Nuggets + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
31/10 Chicago Bulls - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
31/10 Atlanta Hawks - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

October 25-31 Update: 8-9, - 1.72 Units

Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units

Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units

Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units

Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units

Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units