Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 9 Picks 2021 (October 22-24)

Another hugely entertaining week in the Champions League has been placed in the books, but it hasn't been great news for those playing the Fantasy Premier League game.

In GameWeek 9, the Premier League will have another Friday night fixture and that means the deadline for the Fantasy game is at 6:30pm on Friday afternoon. It is something to keep in mind as players will likely be scrambling to make decisions to cover up for the injuries that have occurred during the week.

Arsenal v Aston Villa Pick: The short turnaround between the Monday night Premier League game and the Friday night fixture at the Emirates Stadium is far from ideal for Mikel Arteta and his Arsenal team. They will have had a lot less time than Aston Villa to prepare for the game, but Arsenal may have a little momentum having scored very late in the 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace.

That is still a result where Arsenal will feel they have dropped points, but they have been showing some positive signs in recent home games. A lack of goals has been a slight concern, but Arsenal have now managed 5 goals in the last 2 Premier League games at the Emirates Stadium and they are going up against an Aston Villa defence which has looked incredibly vulnerable.

It was a vulnerability that was clear to see in Aston Villa's 2-3 home loss to Wolves last Saturday and they also gave up some big chances to Tottenham Hotspur in a 2-1 defeat in North London earlier this month. Unsurprisingly this is a team that has created chances of their own going forward, but Aston Villa may not have it easy at an Arsenal team that have shown some sign of improvement from the early season form.

Aston Villa did the League double over Arsenal last season, but they are both fixtures in which Mikel Arteta will feel his team were hard done by.

The first goal is going to be important in this game with two teams that can lack some confidence, but I do think home advantage is going to be key for Arsenal. They have been much more positive performances in both the attacking the defensive third in recent games at the Emirates Stadium in favour of Arsenal and they will feel this opponent is one that will struggle to contain the chances.

Before the defeat a little under twelve months ago, Arsenal had won 3 in a row at home against Aston Villa and the belief is that they are playing the slightly more consistent football of the two teams. It won't come easy, but Arsenal may have just enough to secure a vital three points to keep the progression moving in a positive direction.

Chelsea v Norwich City Pick: Thomas Tuchel had made it clear that he wanted to see more from his team from an attacking point of view and he would have been much happier after the 4-0 win over Malmo in the Champions League on Wednesday evening.

However, the injuries suffered by Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner is a blow for Chelsea and both are expected to sit out this weekend. It will mean Kai Havertz is likely going to lead the line, but the German international scored during the week and he is more than capable of doing that for Chelsea.

They are also fortunate to be facing a Norwich City team that have struggled for goals since being promoted to the Premier League. The Canaries have yet to score away from Carrow Road, although the positives for the manager is that Norwich City have kept clean sheets in their last couple of League fixtures played.

Those have come against Burnley and Brighton and it will be much tougher to contain Chelsea, even with a couple of key forwards likely to miss out. Chelsea have been pretty effective getting forward at Stamford Bridge and they have scored at least three goals in 4 of their 7 games played here this season.

Chelsea have beaten the likes of Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Southampton here in the Premier League and they should be too good for Norwich City. I do think the manager will be demanding his team focus defensively to make sure they don't offer Norwich City much hope and the feeling is that the home team will be able to win this fixture with a clean sheet.

In the away games played this season, Norwich City have not really generated a huge attacking threat. Set pieces may be their best route to success in this one, but Chelsea are a solid team and well organised as they showed in their battling win at Brentford last Saturday.

It is unlikely that Norwich City will pose the same kind of threat as Brentford did and I think Chelsea should be able to secure a win to nil in this one.

Crystal Palace v Newcastle United Pick: Steve Bruce might not be the greatest manager of all time, but he should have been afforded a lot more respect from the Newcastle United faithful considering his success in keeping them in the Premier League over the last couple of seasons. The former Manchester United Captain has managed to do that despite being given very little financial support from the previous owner, but the fans have tired of Bruce and the inevitable Sacking was confirmed by the new owners this week.

It will be interesting to see how the players react to the news considering they will no longer have Steve Bruce as a shield for their own sub-par performances. Individual mistakes and poor decisions have hurt Newcastle United and that was evident again in the 2-3 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday.

The squad does look healthier going into this fixture and Graeme Jones has enough familiarity with the players to give Newcastle United a chance of a first victory of the season. They are a group that can be underestimated, but Newcastle United have pace and quality in the final third that will make them dangerous while a new manager is head-hunted.

A new ownership has spoken about taking Newcastle United to the pinnacle of English Football, but relegation is not going to be part of the plan. That means there is pressure on the players with a January transfer window fast approaching, but they have shown little to believe the current squad is good enough to get out of trouble.

Games like this are winnable ones, but Crystal Palace will feel the same and this is a squad that looks to be enjoying their football under a new manager. Patrick Vieira might feel his team deserve a lot more points than they currently have on the board, but the football has been encouraging and they look capable of getting forward and scoring goals.

Mistakes have been costly for Crystal Palace so far and has led to some dropped points, but they have been scoring plenty of goals and this team love playing at Selhurst Park. The first goal is going to be important, but Crystal Palace have shown enough to believe they are going to be moving up the League table sooner than later, especially with a good looking fixture list coming up, beginning with this game.

I think you can make a reasonable case for both teams in this fixture, but Crystal Palace look to be playing with a confidence that is at a higher level than Newcastle United. Patrick Vieira's team are unbeaten at home in the League and they have created enough chances in those games to believe they could have earned more than a single win.

If The Eagles can get off to a flying start, they might be able to overwhelm the Newcastle United players who have uncertainty around their futures at the club. Last season Newcastle United did win here, but Crystal Palace can bounce back this time around and I think they can find a way to earn a victory.

Everton v Watford Pick: Until Newcastle United appoint a new manager, there will be rumours linking Rafael Benitez to the job at St James' Park and that is neither good for the manager, nor for his Everton team. I don't think that played a part in the 0-1 defeat to West Ham United last Sunday, but more questions will be asked if Everton are to drop points against Watford this Saturday.

Injuries are a bigger problem for Everton who are going to be without another key player this weekend with Abdoulaye Doucoure set for some time on the sidelines. The former Watford midfielder has had a big impact for Everton this season with a new role given to him, and his absence will be a blow for a team that could be without both of their first choice attacking players.

Everton showed they still have enough depth to beat struggling teams when they saw off Norwich City here last month and they are a clear favourite to beat Watford.

Claudio Ranieri will have another week to prepare his squad having only recently taken charge of Watford, but the 0-5 home loss to Liverpool shows how much work has to be done. His squad were badly outplayed in a narrow loss at Leeds United earlier this month, but Ranieri is likely to make Watford a little more organised and a little more stubborn.

That is if he gets the time he will likely need, but this Watford ownership has shown little patience in their time at the helm of the club. I am not sure Claudio Ranieri is really the right choice to get Watford moving up the standings either and they are a team that have given up some huge chances in recent games.

If Watford can frustrate Everton, they could get the fans to just make it a difficult atmosphere for the home players to express themselves. That may be the game plan, but Everton have shown enough at Goodison Park to believe they will find the goals to edge to the three points as they recover from the last setback on the previous Sunday.

Everton have shown they are still able to create chances without key performers in the line up and I think they will get the better of a Watford team that have considerable work to do if they are to get up to par defensively.

Leeds United v Wolves Pick: A couple of key players will be returning for Leeds United this weekend and they will need Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha to try and inspire the rest of the squad to put some consistency behind their performances and results.

Moving away from the bottom three as soon as possible will just ease any growing tensions that this second season the top flight is going to be a remarkably difficult one. There were some expectations of Leeds United to kick on from the 2020/21 campaign, but they have struggled for consistency and Marcelo Bielsa will want his team to start turning things around.

The fixture list does look kinder in the weeks ahead, but Leeds United cannot take anything for granted and will have to work hard to put the points on the board.

Wolves are the visitors to Elland Road this Saturday and they have done enough to suggest they are going to cause some major problems for Leeds United. Last Saturday Wolves came from 2-0 down to earn a deserved 2-3 win at Aston Villa and that is only going to give the entire squad a boost in confidence ahead of this next away game.

Bruno Lage has come in as manager and has promised to make Wolves a more attacking outfit and so far he has been rewarded with some strong performances. The club are moving in the right direction in the standings and Wolves will be confident with 4 away wins in succession behind them.

They have been scoring goals and creating chances in those games, but the more adventurous approach has left Wolves a little more open at the back. Those spaces have been exploited by teams at times over the last month, and Leeds United have enough quality to believe they can do the same here.

Both Premier League games were low-scoring ones between these clubs last season, but there were plenty of chances on display in both fixtures. Better finishing will make this a more entertaining game for those looking for goals and I do think there will be at least three shared out between the teams on the day.

My narrow edge is with Leeds United with Phillips and Raphinha likely to start, but Wolves will not be easy to see off and can play their part in what could be one of the more entertaining games in the League over this weekend.

Southampton v Burnley Pick: A narrow, but deserved, win over Leeds United means there are only three Premier League teams that are still searching for a win after Southampton's victory last weekend.

They created plenty of chances and Southampton were able to secure a 1-0 victory, although it does mean they have only scored twice at home all season. Adam Armstrong was taken out of the starting line up to try and reinvigorate the starting eleven and his replacement scored the winner last Saturday.

It will be encouraging for all associated with Southampton and they are strong favourites to secure another three points at St Mary's this weekend. However, you do have to wonder if the team have enough goals in the squad and I certainly think it gives Burnley a chance to spring a surprise.

Burnley were able to avoid their annual hammering at Manchester City last Saturday, and it was arguably their best performance against that club in a long time. They created some chances, but Burnley have not looked themselves from a defensive point of view and they have now conceded at least twice in all of their away Premier League games played this season.

That puts pressure on them up the other end of the field, but Burnley have looked a little more capable than Southampton in finding a consistent avenue to goal. Burnley have not scored in 3 of their last 4 Premier League games, but they have had a tough fixture list and Sean Dyche will be encouraged by the 2-2 away draw at Leicester City.

Last season Burnley blew a 0-2 lead here in a 3-2 defeat, but prior to that they had won 2 of 3 at Southampton. I think this fixture will be close and the first goal is going to be important, but Burnley look like they are capable of at least containing Southampton considering the struggles Ralph Hasenhuttl's team have had in putting the finishing touches to their football.

Southampton might struggle to score more than once in this fixture and that should mean Burnley have every chance of avoiding defeat. There has been some inconsistent performances from both of these teams, but The Saints look plenty short here.

Brighton v Manchester City Pick: When the fixture list was released in June, not many would have predicted this to be a match between two clubs occupying top four spots in the Premier League table.

4th placed Brighton will be hosting 3rd placed Manchester City at the Amex Stadium in front of the television cameras, but it is a big ask for the hosts to beat the defending Champions.

Graham Potter has to be very pleased with what he has seen from his Brighton team over the last two months, but the recent results have just seen the progress slowing. They needed an injury time goal to earn a 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace and Brighton have followed up with back to back goalless draws with Arsenal and Norwich City.

Now they have to take a big step up in terms of level of opposition and Brighton will have to be better at both ends of the field if they are going to earn a positive result. They did beat Manchester City here in May, but Brighton were 0-2 down and had been playing a team reduced to ten men for over 80 minutes.

Barring something like that happening again, Manchester City should have too much for Brighton here. Like their hosts, Manchester City have been relatively strong defensively, but the difference is that they have shown a real cutting edge in recent games that could see them secure the maximum points.

Manchester City have enjoyed playing Brighton knowing their opponent will be trying to get the ball down and play their own football. Ultimately it is Pep Guardiola's team who have the superior players that can fashion the big openings and Manchester City have secured some comfortable wins over Brighton since the latter returned to the top flight.

The neutrals should enjoy the football on display, but Manchester City should have the quality at both ends of the field to wear down Brighton and secure a good looking win here.

Brentford v Leicester City Pick: This game has been pushed back to Sunday because of Leicester City's participation in the Europa League, but they have had an additional day to prepare with their Match Day 3 fixture moved to a Wednesday.

Leicester City are travelling back from Moscow so will need that time, but this is a confident team having scored eight goals in wins over Manchester United and Spartak Moscow. The chances being created in those wins are highly encouraging for Brendan Rodgers and the entire squad should be playing with more confidence.

Scoring goals has not really been a problem for Leicester City who have managed to hit the back of the net at least twice in 6 of their last 8 games in all competitions. They have also scored in their last 11 away Premier League games and will be encouraged by some of the chances that the likes of Liverpool and Arsenal have managed to create at this Stadium.

However, Brendan Rodgers had not been overseeing a lot of wins of late and that is largely because of the injuries that have decimated his first choice defensive options. They might be flying in the final third, but Leicester City have needed all of that attacking threat and that is because they have been struggling for clean sheets.

While scoring in 11 away Premier League games in succession, Leicester City have conceded in all of those games too. The Foxes have conceded at least twice in 6 of their last 8 games in all competitions as well and Brentford have shown an attacking threat that makes it feel like they are going to cause plenty of problems here.

Better finishing and a less inspired Edouard Mendy would have resulted in Brentford earning a positive result against Chelsea last weekend. They have enjoyed playing teams that may give it a go and Brentford have scored at least two goals when hosting Arsenal and Liverpool here, and I do expect the team to play with a positive attitude in this one too.

Leicester City did win here 1-3 in the FA Cup last season and I am expecting goals in this one too. Both teams should hit the back of the net, or at least have plenty of chances to do that, and I think the attacking instincts of the two managers will mean at least three goals are shared out on Sunday afternoon.

West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There is no love lost between these London rivals and both West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur fans will be going into the fixture with some confidence in their own team.

Despite some of the negative headlines, Tottenham Hotspur are as high as 5th in the Premier League table. They are still a work in progress under a new manager and Tottenham Hotspur have had some inconsistent performances throughout this season, but the 2-3 win at Newcastle United has moved them back into the top five.

West Ham United also had an important away win in the Premier League last Sunday and they are also moving up the standings. Unlike Spurs, West Ham United won a European tie on Thursday and David Moyes clearly has faith in his squad that secured the win over Genk with some key players earning rest.

They have played well for much of this season and West Ham United continue to be a dangerous team going forward. David Moyes will be pleased with the back to back clean sheets since the October international break, but they have not always looked secure in their defensive third so West Ham United will need to be efficient in their attacks.

I expect them to cause problems for Tottenham Hotspur who have been conceding plenty of away goals. The win at St James' Park will be encouraging, but Tottenham Hotspur are still finding their way under Nuno Espirito Santo and some of their attacking performances have been underwhelming.

Tottenham Hotspur have quality in the attacking areas that can't be dismissed, but I do think West Ham United can back up the win they had over this rival last season.

My one concern with West Ham United is the fact they have lost both Premier League games played after playing in the Europa League. Both defeats came at the London Stadium as West Ham United conceded in the final few minutes to Manchester United and Brentford, but they played well enough to deserve more in both games.

That is encouraging enough to think West Ham United can be on the right side of the Asian Handicap and I do think the favourite can edge to the victory in this live game.

Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: This remains the biggest game in English Football and the world will be tuning in when Manchester United host Liverpool in a huge game for both clubs.

Both are coming in off impressive 3-2 Champions League wins during the week, although they were earned in different ways. Manchester United had to show some resiliency and a huge belief to overturn a 0-2 deficit in the win over Atalanta at Old Trafford, while Liverpool blew a 0-2 lead at Atletico Madrid before rallying for a 2-3 victory of their own.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has just eased some of the pressure that has been building on him, but he isn't out of the woods just yet and Manchester United need a big performance for the manager. They can't afford to allow Liverpool to get into the kind of lead that Atalanta were given on Wednesday and Manchester United have to find a balance that makes them more solid defensively, while also bringing an attacking intensity to the field.

Manchester United should have some success going forward because Liverpool have not really convinced at the back. Atletico Madrid created solid chances against them and Brentford did the same in a recent Premier League game and I do think Manchester United are capable of causing problems, especially at Old Trafford with the fans behind them.

The worry for Manchester United has to be the amount of goals Liverpool have been scoring and especially with the really weak defensive performances of the last week. Liverpool have scored at least three times in 8 away games in a row and they have arguably the top player in the world in their ranks.

Mohamed Salah scored the fourth goal in Liverpool's 2-4 win at Old Trafford in May and I do think they are going to be very dangerous going forward in this one. There may be some issues at the back, but Liverpool have options in attacking areas and all three of their main forwards are in good form and should be well rested for the late Sunday afternoon kick off.

After the pressure that has been on Manchester United, you wouldn't write them off from upsetting many and beating Liverpool here. However, it is hard to imagine either of these teams winning this game without needing to score at least twice considering what we have seen from both at the back.

Both teams have scored in 7 of the last 8 between the clubs at Old Trafford and I do think that is likely going to be the outcome of this one. Neither manager will be overly content to take a point before kick off though and I think an attacking game will be the outcome with both managers likely to believe that going forward and scoring goals will cover some of the defensive vulnerabilities that have been on display.

Neutrals are likely to enjoy the game a lot more than the fans who have to deal with a different kind of tension. I would not be surprised if this is the third game in a row between Manchester United and Liverpool that ends with three or more goals produced and that feels the obvious angle considering how open both have been in defensive areas.

MY PICKS: Arsenal to Win

Chelsea Win to Nil

Crystal Palace to Win

Everton & Over 1.5 Goals

Leeds United-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals

Burnley + 0.5 Asian Handicap

Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Brentford-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals

West Ham United - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Manchester United-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals

Fantasy Football GameWeek 9

One of the main reasons that most long-term fantasy managers will tell you that shouldn't be planning too many transfers too far ahead is because you just never know when the injury bug will come in and hurt your squad.

The fixtures coming up for Chelsea meant most were going to be looking to double or, more likely, treble up with players from Thomas Tuchel's squad. Back to back wins this week will have only strengthened that, but I always wait towards the end of the week to make transfers and it is a policy that will have paid off.

My transfer this week was going to be used on removing Cristiano Ronaldo and replacing him with Romelu Lukaku, but the Belgian player and Timo Werner have both suffered injuries in Chelsea's win over Malmo on Wednesday. Both are expected to not only miss this week, but they could be out right through to the November international break and that means it is a transfer I am obviously no longer considering.

Injuries can change some plans, but it may open the door for other players to become fantasy options and the player who could most benefit is Kai Havertz.

The German international has not really been as involved as he would have liked for Chelsea in the early part of the 2021/22 season, especially after scoring the winning goal for the club in the Champions League Final at the end of the last campaign. However, Kai Havertz did manage to get on the scoreboard in the win over Malmo when coming on as a substitute and a midfield player in the Fantasy Premier League game is almost certainly going to be leading the line for Chelsea with games against Norwich City, Newcastle United and Burnley to come.

Kai Havertz can be a little inconsistent, but he should have every chance of securing some important points over the next three GameWeeks and my moves over the last month does mean I have the chance to upgrade one of my midfield options for the Chelsea player.

First I am going to be listening to the Thomas Tuchel press conference to get a feeling as to how long Lukaku and Werner could potentially be missing, but Havertz is an option as I have been looking to move on Said Benrahma.

West Ham United have a tough fixture list coming up so I am not keen on doubling up on their squad and still feel Michail Antonio is the key player for them from the underlying numbers. My initial plan was to remove Benrahma and once again bring in Bryan Mbeumo who has settled into the Premier League with Brentford.

The Bees are beginning to create a lot of chances and I do love how they use Mbeumo, but this may be a player that I look to target in GW10 rather than this week. I have yet to take a hit this season so that is a potential avenue to bringing him into my squad, but I will have a real think about whether that is going to be plan that brings in a return this week or whether it should be something I wait on.

I think those decisions will come down to the wire for me, but I am pretty happy with the shape of my squad going into GW9 so I am not sure I need to take the hit to bring in a player unless I feel it is going to be a long-term selection. The Brentford assets feel they can be longer-term picks, but I think the large part of the squad looks to be in decent shape.

The Captain choice is perhaps the hardest decision.

Going with my head the easiest selection has to be Mohamed Salah considering his form, his performances against the bigger teams he has opposed, and the fact that Manchester United look really messy at the back. Before the Romelu Lukaku injury I think he would have been the player I would have transferred in and given him the armband, especially as I hate Captaining anyone playing against Manchester United.

Realistically Salah is the best choice at the moment and I think he is someone you can set as Captain and leave on current form. It seemingly doesn't matter who Liverpool are playing and Mohamed Salah is also on Penalties.

His only real rivals this week for the armband would be Raphinha or Cristiano Ronaldo from my squad, although a more risky decision would be to give it to either of the Chelsea defenders I have or possibly even Joao Cancelo.

I am not in a position where I need to take unnecessary risks right now, but I have to make peace with my decision in the hours leading up to the deadline. Looking at the way I am going to set my team up ahead, I do think a hit could be the right move, but you can see my final decision and starting eleven at around 645pm on Friday.

College Football Week 8 Picks 2015 (October 22-24)

This is the week when many College Football fans can 'take a breath' after an impressive first seven weeks of the season which have been filled with headlines and Play Off places shifting all over the place.

For the first time in a while, you can't really get over excited about the games on tap in Week 8 and that is shown by the prime time games that have been picked. It is not a complete waste of time, far from it, but this is certainly a week that would have been much better if certain teams have played up to the level we had been expecting.

Last week also saw a few more team lose their realistic chance of making the final four Play Off picture, while others will be looking for favours for the remainder of the regular season.


Last week I pointed out that Week 5 had been the first losing week for the picks of the season but Week 6 had been a bounce back week. Well Week 7 was something incredibly spectacular as the first ten picks I had made had all come in as winners by the time the evening games kicked off. Overall a couple of bad beats prevented it being the week of all weeks with both the USC Trojans and Arizona State Sun Devils going into the Fourth Quarter with the lead (I had backed both as the underdog with the points), while the Arizona Wildcats covered the final line, but not the one I had locked in on Friday.

I am not going to complain about that though as an 11-3 record means the season totals have been bolstered significantly. Week 8 might not have as many picks as that because, as I have mentioned, the slate of games doesn't look that appealing although I did manage to put together a short list from which I will make my picks.


I can't move on to my current Play Off Rankings without mentioning the end of the Michigan Wolverines-Michigan State Spartans game... Michigan were leading with fifteen seconds left and were simply looking to punt the ball deep which would have effectively ended the game barring some sort of miracle.

Well a miracle did happen!

The Punter mishandled the snap and the subsequent fumble was batted around before ending in the arms of the Michigan State Defender who rumbled to the house for the walk off Touchdown that saw the Spartans win the game as time expired.

It was incredible and it isn't the first time College Football has left me with my jaw dropped and that is why I love the sport at this level. I don't know how Michigan will handle that defeat which likely keeps them out of the Play Offs now, but Jim Harbaugh has to be excited about the potential his Wolverines team will have in the coming years to beat up on Michigan State.


My Final Four Play Off Ranking:

1) Ohio State Buckeyes- while the other teams are losing their minds, Ohio State keep winning and the change to JT Barrett as starting Quarter Back is the right move. Defending Champions still the team to beat and certainly in the final four if remaining unbeaten.

2) Baylor Bears- they have finally done it for me... I have held on with the TCU Horned Frogs for as long as possible, but Baylor's 'Leave No Doubt' approach to their games has convinced me they win the Big 12 and do it unbeaten.

3) LSU Tigers- still unbeaten in the SEC West and have the inside track to the Championship Game where they would certainly be favoured. One more game, then a bye and then the huge game against the Alabama Crimson Tide that decides it all.

4) Florida State Seminoles- some of the national writers finally mentioned Florida State as a potential final four Play Off team this week, but I have been high on them for a while. Quietly remaining unbeaten, the big test will be when they face the Clemson Tigers which will decide this Conference and potentially one spot in the final four.

Looking In- Utah Utes, Stanford Cardinal, Alabama Crimson Tide, Florida Gators, Clemson Tigers, TCU Horned Frogs, Michigan State Spartans, Houston Cougars.

Week 8 Picks

I say every week that I am not always that keen on the midweek games of the College Football season because they seem to have a few more controversial calls.

That could easily be down to the fact that there usually are a couple of games on Thursday and a couple of Friday and so a lot more focus on those games which means call can be analysed more than other games. However, it is a mentally I have with some of the midweek games, a bit like trying to back the favourite on Monday Night Football in the NFL when that team is usually pounded by the public chasing the weekend losses.

In saying that, I am still making picks from the midweek games where I think the line is right to do so and last week it proved no bother with both a Thursday and a Friday pick coming in as a winner. Hopefully that will be the start for the Week 8 Picks too as I once again begin the picks with a Pac-12 Conference Game.

California Golden Bears @ UCLA Bruins Pick: The UCLA Bruins are going to need some serious run of luck to get back into the Pac-12 Championship contention in what is turning into a disappointing season. A second consecutive loss to a Conference opponent last week against Stanford has left the Bruins on the edge in the Pac-12 South where they trail the Utah Utes by 2.5 games, but it would be curtains for sure if the California Golden Bears are winners here on Thursday.

The Golden Bears are off a bye having barely been knocked out of the ranks of the unbeaten by the Utah Utes last time out. Jared Goff was picked off five times in that game yet the Golden Bears were downed by just six points and I love what Sonny Dykes has done with this team.

I am expecting Goff and the Offense to bounce back against a UCLA team that has been decimated by injuries on the Defensive side of the ball and barely showed any life when trying to stop the Stanford Cardinal Offense last week. This California Offense is much better than the Stanford one and I am expecting the Golden Bears to run and pass the ball easily enough.

That isn't to say that Josh Rosen and the UCLA Offense won't have their own success too because they clearly will, especially if Paul Perkins establishes the run as effectively as the Utah Utes did. Like California, I am fully expecting the Bruins to be able to move the chains both through the air and on the ground.

The key for the pick for me is clear- I don't think there is much between these teams yet the California Golden Bears are getting more than a Field Goal in terms of a points start. That looks too much for a team that will be looking for revenge having controversially been beaten by UCLA last season and the Golden Bears have also covered the last six times they have been set as the underdog.

It will be high-scoring and a turnover here and there might make all the difference, but I'll take the points on offer in this one.


Kansas State Wildcats @ Texas Longhorns Pick: Since Bill Synder returned as Kansas State Head Coach, it has almost been a given to back his team in an underdog spot where they have gone 24-10 against the spread. However, the Wildcats were blasted as a home underdog last week by the Oklahoma Sooners, although that should get them fired up for their Head Coach in a fourth consecutive game as the underdog.

They had been 2-0 against the spread prior to the Sooners defeat, which is the largest Synder as suffered as a Head Coach here, and Defensively they have lost a number of starters.

In saying all that, I am not sure I am ready to give the Texas Longhorns almost a Touchdown to cover with Charlie Strong still trying to turn around some of the inconsistencies. They were fantastic in beating the Sooners two weeks ago and have had a bye to get ready for this game, although it still looks a let down spot for them.

It is a revenge game for the Longhorns too having been shut out by Kansas State last season, but Texas are just 1-2 against the spread as the home favourite under Charlie Strong and I am looking for a big bounce back performance from the Wildcats who go into a bye following this game.

There is every chance this spread moves to seven points before kick off, but I will take what looks too many points already.


Clemson Tigers @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: This is a big ACC game that could potentially decide whether this Conference will be able to send a team to the final four Play Offs this season. If the Clemson Tigers were to fall, only one team would have a realistic chance of making the Play Off from this Conference so it is a huge game for the visiting Tigers.

However, I can't help but feel that has contributed to what looks a very big spread for the home team here, especially as the Miami Hurricanes are 4-1 against the spread as the home underdog under Al Golden. The Head Coach might be under pressure after back to back losses to Cincinnati and Florida State, but Miami bounced back by beating Virginia Tech here and are a better team than their record may suggest.

The key will be to try and find holes in a Clemson Defense that has performed very well all season, especially as the Miami Defense doesn't match up to them. But as well as Clemson have played, it has to be remembered this is a true road game and they are 0-4 against the spread as the road favourite including 0-1 this season.

I am looking for Brad Kaaya to make enough plays at Quarter Back to keep the Hurricanes competitive in this one and getting more than a Touchdown start looks very generous.


Houston Cougars @ UCF Knights Pick: This was supposed to be a top game in the American Athletic Conference that could potentially have been repeated in the first ever Conference Championship Game. However, the UCF Knights have more than a slight disappointment this season and the Houston Cougars come to town as a big favourite to beat them.

I can't argue against that to be honest with this being another revenge game for the Cougars following last week's revenge blow out of the Tulane Green Wave. That helped move Houston to 6-0 against the spread as the road favourite and they look a balanced Offense that should be able to move the chains effectively.

It is a big number though to cover and my reason is that UCF simply haven't looked right Offensively all season and I am not sure how many points they can score in this one. They won't be able to run the ball and this Houston Secondary has a 'bend, don't break' way of playing that has produced turnovers and a fierce pass rush.

Houston have had an extra day to get ready for the game and the Knights were blown out by Connecticut as the home underdog a couple of weeks ago. It might be difficult for them to keep up in this one too and I like the Cougars to win big.


Toledo Rockets @ Massachusetts Minutemen Pick: Another big road favourite I am taking this week are the Toledo Rockets who didn't let me down in Week 7 when blowing out Eastern Michigan at home. They will have ten days to prepare for their big MAC game against Northern Illinois so the Rockets should be fully focused on Massachusetts who have played Temple close but been blown out by the other two good teams they have run into.

I imagine the Toledo Offense will have their way both running and throwing the ball in this one and that balance is key for them to keep the Minutemen off balance. It will be tough for Massachusetts to get consistent stops and Toledo have scored thirty points or more in four of their last five games.

Add in the fact that both Bowling Green and Notre Dame bounce hung over sixty points on this Massachusetts Defense and I think the question becomes whether they can keep up on the scoreboard. That won't be easy against what looks the best Defense in the MAC Conference and playing catch up will just unleash a pass rush that should dominate the trenches.

My one concern has to be that Toledo haven't been a great road favourite under Matt Campbell's guidance, although they are 1-0 against the spread in that spot this season. With no look ahead in this one, I like the Rockets to propel themselves to another big win.


Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: Usually I would have moved past this game which sees the home favourite fresh off a huge road win against a team that has already won as an underdog at an SEC foe as well as played one of the best teams in the Conference very close.

It is a lot of points for the Oklahoma Sooners to be giving up against a very good Offense too, but there is one factor that I think inspires the Sooners to really put in a top effort.

That factor is Baker Mayfield.

Mayfield played for Texas Tech originally but transferred to Oklahoma and the one team he always wanted to play for... That didn't go down well in Lubbock and so Texas Tech ensured Mayfield missed a year as his former school refused to sign a consent form regarding the transfer and it was subsequently decided by a court that a one year ineligibility stood.

Don't tell me that Mayfield isn't going to be wanting his team mates to help him run up a big score on Texas Tech and Kliff Kingsbury, who was blamed as the chief instigator of the ineligibility issue by Mayfield's father. Of course the Red Raiders might use his transfer as motivation, but I think the edge goes to the Sooners in that regards.

On the field the Sooners look better on both sides of the ball than Texas Tech and they can focus all of their attention on this game having an 'easy' game next on deck when they face Kansas. Games between these teams have been close in recent years, but this is one I expect the Sooners to have circled and to try and blow out the Red Raiders and I like them to do that.


Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: On a normal day, you could see why the Michigan State Spartans would have a chance of blowing out the Indiana Hoosiers considering the balance they are likely to have on Offense.

However, I am not sure how this team will be able to pick themselves up from the most emotional of wins over the Michigan Wolverines last week and this does look a prime let down spot for a Spartans team that are 1-6 against the spread this season.

Of course they are going into a bye so can focus completely on Indiana, but Michigan State have played down to the level of opposition they faced all season. Perhaps the win last week sparks a strong run of form to end the season, but I have a feeling the players might just want to get this game 'out of the way', get into the bye week and then look forward to a daunting final four games of the season.

Indiana have enough Offense to at least keep this game within three scores, although they are fresh off a loss in which they blew a huge lead against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. That was a terrible loss and the Hoosiers were also blown out at Penn State.

However, they did play the Ohio State Buckeyes close at home and can take advantage here if Michigan State haven't come down from the way they beat Michigan last week. The Spartans are 8-16 against the spread as the home favourite since 2012 and that includes going 0-4 this season so I will take these points and look for Indiana to make it a real battle for them, perhaps even securing a late backdoor cover.


Texas A&M Aggies @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: The SEC West is going to star becoming a clearer Division in the next three weeks and this is a game that will start separating the pack. The Texas A&M Aggies are off a devastating home loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide and will be hoping they can make a better recovery off a loss to Alabama than the Mississippi Rebels did off a win over the same team.

The Rebels have been a real disappointment having been blasted by the Florida Gators and then beaten by American Athletic Conference Memphis Tigers last week. A second Conference loss for either team will likely be curtains for their chances of making the SEC Championship Game barring something truly crazy happening so there will be plenty of tension in the air.

Texas A&M might feel they let themselves down in an eighteen point loss last weekend considering they threw THREE pick-sixes in the game. I think Kyle Allen can have a bounce back game this week though against a Rebels team that was punished through the air last week.

While that will be the case, I also think Mississippi can impose a solid running game onto the Aggies in this one and it does have the makings of a close game that might be decided by a turnover or two. Defensively Texas A&M didn't play too badly last week if you take away the twenty-one points scored on Interceptions from the Crimson Tide and I do think the road team might hold the edge.

So I am a little surprised they are being given as many points as they are and I like Texas A&M to keep this competitive and perhaps even win a third straight visit to Oxford outright.


Florida State Seminoles @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick: Up until now, Florida State had been flying under the radar as a potential Play Off team, but they are firmly in the limelight now. Everett Golson has played much more like the Quarter Back that took Notre Dame to the National Championship Game rather than the one that had a huge number of turnovers last season and the Seminoles have been rolling.

I really like their chances of knocking off the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on the road as a season filled with promise is now circling the drain. You can't ignore the fact that Georgia Tech have lost five games in a row, although they might be feeling disrespected as a rare home underdog.

It hasn't always been a good spot for them as they are 2-4 against the spread as the home underdog and this is a triple option that Florida State will have prepared for having seen Georgia Tech twice in the ACC Championship Game in the last two years.

The Seminoles are 7-4 against the spread as the road favourite too and I think they have been the better team on both sides of the ball. If Golson can continue his turnover-free performances, I am looking for the Florida State Offense to have enough balance to keep the chains moving as well as the Defense shutting down the triple option for long enough to see the cover come in.


Utah Utes @ USC Trojans Pick: The public are going to be pounding the unbeaten road underdog in this game, but I am going to oppose them and look for the USC Trojans to effectively end the Utah Utes hopes of reaching the National Championship Play Offs.

Both teams had contrasting fortunes last week- I have no idea how USC didn't cover in their game against Notre Dame let alone not win it outright, while Utah might have looked easy winners on the scoreboard but were down to Arizona State through the middle of the Fourth Quarter.

Turnovers have been the key for Utah and that is one concern for me considering Cody Kessler has suddenly started throwing Interceptions like they are going out of fashion. Extra possessions have sparked the Utes to success this season but this is the last really big game for USC, especially if they were to lose, while a win gets them back into contention in the Conference.

They are off two poor losses by the standards people expected of USC, but they remain a strong favourite at home and the line makers know they have underachieved and Utah have overachieved. I am just not sold on the Utes and I think the Trojans get revenge for a close loss in 2014 and win this one to ruine Utah's unbeaten season.


Ohio State Buckeyes @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights Pick: I know, I know, the Ohio State Buckeyes have been very average for much of the season, but I like the move they have made to JT Barrett as the starting Quarter Back.

They are still unbeaten on the road under Urban Meyer, but one concern has to be how close half of those games have been with half of their Big Ten road wins coming by seven points or fewer.

Now they are favoured by almost three Touchdowns to win in Rutgers so why do I like their chances to do that? Well I think the last two weeks they have begun to get uncoiled Offensively and having Barrett in as starting Quarter Back should spark that side of the ball even more.

The last two wins have come by at least twenty-one points each and Rutgers are off a game when they put in a huge effort to come back from twenty-five points behind to beat Indiana on the road. That emotional and physical effort might take its toll as this game wears on and I think the Buckeyes Defense doesn't give up too many big plays or long drives in this one.

I expect Ohio State to win the turnover battle too and I am looking at them to go into their bye week with a big win behind them and a warning to their remaining four opponents that the defending Champions are ready for another deep run.

MY PICKS: California Golden Bears + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats + 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes + 7.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 21.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Toledo Rockets - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers + 16.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Texas A&M Aggies + 5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Week 7: 11-3, + 7.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 50.71% Yield
Week 6: 8-5, + 2.49 Units (13 Units Staked, + 19.15% Yield)
Week 5: 6-7, - 1.50 Units (13 Units Staked, - 11.54% Yield)
Week 4: 8-4-1, + 3.26 Units (13 Units Staked, + 25.08% Yield)
Week 3: 6-4, + 1.57 Units (10 Units Staked, + 15.70% Yield)
Week 2: 5-4-1, + 0.68 Units (10 Units Staked, + 6.80% Yield)
Week 1: 7-6, + 0.48 Units (13 Units Staked, + 3.69% Yield

Season 2015: 51-33-2, + 14.08 Units (86 Units Staked, + 16.37% Yield)
Season 2014: 75-82-2, - 13.39 Units (172 Units Staked, - 7.78% Yield)

Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)

Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)

Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2013 (October 22-24)

The next couple of rounds in the Champions League and Europa League Groups are usually critical in determining which teams make it through to the knockout stages and which teams will be left to concentrate on domestic matters after Christmas.

This year is no different and some teams may put themselves in a very strong position to qualify for the next stage- it is also important for some of the bigger teams to get their qualification out of the way as early as possible so they are not having to play their strongest teams during a period when games come quick and fast, particularly for those English sides involved.

Manchester United, Arsenal and Manchester City could put themselves in a very strong position once they complete their double-headers over the next couple of weeks, while Chelsea will want to earn at least 4 points from their 6 points available against Schalke.

When you think of the Champions League potential winners this season, you do notice that Borussia Dortmund and Juventus go into their double-header with Arsenal and Real Madrid respectively with some doubts about their chances of moving through to the last-16. Both teams have not picked up as many points as they would have expected by this stage and neither can afford to drop more than 3 points in the coming couple of weeks if they are to avoid having a mountain to climb in their last couple of games in the Group Stage.


CSKA Moscow v Manchester City Pick: There have been a number of complaints about the playing surface from the away side ahead of this game and you can't really blame them as UEFA had forced CSKA Moscow to play their first home game in the competition away from this stadium.

Manuel Pellegrini might not be happy about the state of the pitch, but he will likely have focused his side on trying to keep that out of their minds and earn a result that will put them in the driving seat for qualification along with Bayern Munich.

He will not want to leave qualification resting on the game in Munich to end the Group Stage and I think Manchester City are playing well enough to come here and win.

A lack of goals in the CSKA Moscow team has to be a concern and I don't think we will see a lot of goals on a poor playing surface. However, I do like Manchester City to win here and I think the 'win to nil' looks a big price.


Anderlecht v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: This is a really tough game for Anderlecht as they are playing what looks like the best team in the Group by a country mile. Over the last twelve months, Anderlecht have lost 3 of 4 home games in the Champions League and they have conceded 9 goals in those losses and that kind of form won't get the job done against Paris Saint-Germain.

PSG have been very effective away from home in the competition, while they are coming into this one with plenty of good results behind them. Laurent Blanc will rotate some players, but there is a lot of quality in the away side and I can see them running out comfortable winners.

With the amount of goals Anderlecht have conceded at home in this competition, Paris Saint-Germain to win this by at least 2 goals looks a very big price.


Galatasaray v Copenhagen Pick: There will be pressure on Galatasaray in this game as they will have a real hope of making it through to the last 16 and they will know that anything less than a win would put them in a difficult position to coe through this Group.

Galatasaray haven't been at their best at home in recent Champions League games, but I still feel they will be too strong for a Copenhagen side that may be over-rated because of one performance against Juventus.

The home side might have been given a confidence boost thanks to a win at home over the weekend and I feel Galatasaray are the right side to back, but I will give up the one goal on the Asian Handicap in this one.


Manchester United v Real Sociedad Pick: It has been tense at Old Trafford the last couple of games and there is a feeling that Manchester United are extremely short of confidence at the moment.

Whether Real Sociedad have the belief that they can become the latest side from Spain to visit Old Trafford and earn a victory is another matter as they haven't been in the best form themselves. However, a win at Valencia will certainly have given them a boost, although I have a feeling that Old Trafford still holds a feeling of awe for visiting teams from Europe.

I think Sociedad will come to Old Trafford with attacking intentions and I do think they will score against a United defence that has looked vulnerable at times.

However, I also feel United are due a touch of luck that should lead to a win although it may come without a clean sheet.


Real Madrid v Juventus Pick: This is a big game between two of the most famous names in European football, but it is one that I think Real Madrid will win and give themselves a strong chance of winning the Group.

Real Madrid have been very strong at home in the last couple of years in the Champions League and they have goals in the side, which covers up some of the defensive vulnerabilities that they can show.

I do think Juventus will come here with the intention of getting forward and I wouldn't be surprised if they come here and score. However, they haven't looked at their best defensively with at least 2 goals conceded in each of their last 3 games.

With that in mind, the home win in a game where both teams score looks a nice price.

MY PICKS: Manchester City Win to Nil @ 2.90 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Paris Saint-Germain - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.30 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Galatasaray - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester United to Win @ 3.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Real Madrid to Win @ 3.10 Coral (1 Unit)

October Update: 16-10-1, + 15.34 Units (37 Units Staked, + 41.46% Yield)

September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 26-38, - 10.89 Units (93 Units Staked, - 11.71% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Things we Learned from the Weekend Football (October 22-24)

It wasn't a horrible weekend for the picks as I actually came away with a small profit, although it could have been so much better if Chelsea had not faltered at QPR... Still it makes a change from the horrendous September I suffered.

This would have been written on Monday usually, but I have barely recovered from the Manchester Derby on Sunday and only now feel a little better.

Here are a few of my thoughts from the last few days:

1) It was coming...: I have been a little pessimistic about Manchester United's performances so far this season, with only a couple being really good, while the vulnerability at the back had me musing that we were going to take a beating at one point or another.


Now I predicted that shelling may have come at Anfield last weekend, but Sir Alex must have felt the same negative vibes and ensured he played a team that could defend from the front and make life difficult for Liverpool, although we may have been a touch fortunate to escape with a draw after they created 2/3 very good chances in the last 10 minutes.


On Sunday, the onus was on us, as the home team, to push the game forward, but once Jonny Evans was sent off, it was always going to be a mountain to climb with the movement City have in their forward players.


That does not excuse the ridiculous defending from our boys at the end of the game, something that the boss seemed to agree with, as we went in search of a consolation after City went 1-4 up. At that point we should have settled for the loss and maintained some element of a goal difference, but to concede 2 more goals in the last 3 minutes is sloppy at best, and naive and stupid at worst.


I was vastly disappointed with the 'fans' who started leaving Old Trafford once City went 0-3 up (that is the time to support the boys who are trying their asses off, not the time to desert them). These are the same fools who make the most noise when United win trophies, yet leave the boys in their time of need... 


I have seen a couple of beatings in my life, but I have NEVER left the stadium early and I was disgusted with those who think that is the best way to support United, especially in a game of this magnitude. The same thing happened in a 1-4 loss to Liverpool a couple of years ago, although those season ticket holders were given a crushing time the week after when they returned to their seats.


Don't get me wrong though, I think I came out with more curses than I have in all of 2011 when United conceded the 6th.


2) Chelsea may have lost, but come out with plenty of credit: There were another bunch of controversial decisions from Chris Foy, who I personally cannot stand as a referee, that left Chelsea in a big hole on Sunday, but the fans have to be pleased with the effort and desire they showed in the 2nd half to almost come back and snatch something from this game.


1-0 down with 9 men is usually a damage limitation exercise, but Chelsea created chances and were very unfortunate to get nothing from this game.


This tells me that Andre Villa-Boas has created a real good atmosphere at the club and they are willing to fight for one another and that can only lead to good things for the Blues in the coming months.


3) Do the Wolves fans feel a little silly now: I really am no great fan of Mick McCarthy, and haven't been since he removed Roy Keane from the World Cup in 2002, but he didn't deserve the level of abuse he took in the Wolves-Swansea game at the weekend.


Yes, Wolves are struggling... Yes, even I was wondering what he McCarthy was playing at with his substitutions... Yes, being 0-2 down at home to Swansea is not good for a team that wants to survive in the Premier League... But McCarthy did not deserve chants of 'you're getting sacked in the morning' and 'you don't know what you're doing' considering where he has brought Wolves in his time as manager of the club.


I noticed McCarthy also came out today and described those fans as 'idiotic', probably not the wisest move considering they are playing Manchester City at home on Wednesday night, but I can understand his frustrations.


You could see it in his face after the game how annoyed McCarthy was, but the only way to get the fans off his back is by leading Wolves back to winning ways. The 6th November home game against Wigan is going to be pivotal.


4) Racism again takes centre stage: I don't know what to make of the latest issue involving John Terry and Anton Ferdinand, just a week after the Patrice Evra-Luis Suarez issue.


This was apparently brought up by a spectator who could read what John Terry was saying, although there hasn't been too much coming out of the QPR camp so far, and I don't have a clue what is going to happen from here.


The FA cannot be too pleased with all this, especially considering it started during the latest in the 'Kick It Out' campaign that has been so successful over the years.


5) Can Newcastle really get a Champions League place?: Newcastle have picked up 19 points, the same number as Chelsea, in the early part of the season, but they have taken advantage of a soft schedule. To be fair, you can only beat what is placed in front of you, but the next 6 weeks will tell the Toon Army all they need to know about their team.


Newcastle's next 5 games are : Stoke City (a), Everton (h), Manchester City (a), Manchester United (a) and Chelsea (h)... If they are still in 4th place after that run of games, then I would say get dreaming of a European adventure to all Geordies out there.