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Showing posts with label November 2nd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label November 2nd. Show all posts

Sunday, 2 November 2025

WTA Finals Day 2 Tennis Picks 2025 (Sunday 2nd November)

It was not a very good start for the Tennis Picks at the WTA Finals, but the Group Stage matches continue on Sunday.

This offers an opportunity to bounce back in what looks a very competitive Group as two more Grand Slam Champions begin their bid to win the 2025 WTA Finals.


Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Jasmine Paolini: The second Group at the WTA Finals gets underway on Sunday and the first match features the US Open Champion Aryna Sabalenka.

The World Number 1 reached the Final at the Australian Open and French Open and was beaten in the Semi Final at Wimbledon, which may have knocked some confidence at the business end of the biggest tournaments. However, winning the US Open is a reminder of the quality of Aryna Sabalenka and she has really enjoyed playing on the hard courts.

Last year she was upset in the Semi Final here in Riyadh, but Aryna Sabalenka continues to show plenty of consistency having reached the Semi Final twice and the Final in each of the last three years in the tournament. However, it cannot be ignored that she has yet to win the WTA Finals and Aryna Sabalenka has not been in action for almost a month, which may give the other three players in this Group real confidence.

First up to take on the challenge of the World Number 1 is Jasmine Paolini who has to be credited for the consistency she has shown on the Tour. Some may have wondered if she could repeat the success of 2024, but the Italian has maintained her form and the World Number 8 will have nothing to lose in this event.

The US Open run will have disappointed Jasmine Paolini, but she has reached the Quarter Final in Beijing and backed that up with consecutive Semi Final runs in Wuhan and Ningbo. Each of those runs were ended by players who will be competing in Riyadh and this has proven to be a tough match up for Paolini, especially on the faster surfaces.

Aryna Sabalenka has won four in a row against Jasmine Paolini since being upset by the latter in Indian Wells on the hard courts, and three of those wins have been on this surface. That includes a straight sets win here in Riyadh last season and Sabalenka was able to find the breaks of serve needed to cover this line when they met in the Group Stage twelve months ago.

You have to expect Jasmine Paolini to do whatever she needs to do in order to keep this one competitive, but ultimately Aryna Sabalenka has been the far superior hard court player over the course of the year.

As long as the World Number 1 is focused enough, she should be able to find the breaks needed to cover this handicap line set.


Coco Gauff - 2.5 games v Jessica Pegula: The defending Champion begins her campaign to win another WTA Finals on Sunday in the last of the four Singles matches to be played to open the tournament.

Coco Gauff won the French Open this season, but will perhaps be disappointed with her efforts at the other Grand Slam events. However, winning the WTA Finals in consecutive years will make sure the American remains full of confidence in what she can achieve in 2026 and the World Number 3 will enter the event in Riyadh in strong form.

The Fourth Round loss at the US Open will have hurt, but Coco Gauff has reached the Semi Final in Beijing and won the title in Wuhan.

The latter of those wins came courtesy of getting the better of a friend in Jessica Pegula and that is the same opponent who will be standing on the other side of the net in this opening Group match. The World Number 5 has had another consistent year on the Tour, but the Grand Slam title eludes Jessica Pegula and time may be running out to change that.

Jessica Pegula reached the Semi Final at the US Open and she has enjoyed a decent Asian swing of her own, and the 31 year old American continues to be a very tough out on the hard courts.

However, she is just 1-5 on the hard courts when facing top ten Ranked opponents and that includes losing to Coco Gauff in the Wuhan Final in straight sets.

The younger of the compatriots has won the last couple of matches between these friends and that includes Coco Gauff beating Jessica Pegula here in Riyadh twelve months ago.

Nothing is going to come easy for Gauff, which is what the higher Ranked player would expect, but the French Open Champion has the slight edge over Jessica Pegula and may just win enough of the biggest points to earn the victory in the match and the cover of the spread set.

MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Coco Gauff - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

WTA Finals: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Thursday, 30 October 2025

NFL Week 9 Picks 2025 (Thursday 30th October-Monday 3rd November)

So how many people would have predicted the Indianapolis Colts would be the team with the most wins in the NFL through two months of the regular season?

Another strong Offensive showing has kept the Colts in front with the 7-1 record, but Indianapolis will still have work to do if they are going to make everyone believers in what they are putting together. The reality is that they have been playing in a weak Division and taken advantage of what has looked a manageable schedule.

The Colts will soon be heading into the Bye Week and they will certainly be tested on the return- in the 'second half' of their schedule, they will face the improving Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars twice, which will determine how the AFC South shakes out, while also having road games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks.

For now all credit has to be given to a team and management who have rallied together and they will certainly be making Jim Irsay very proud as he looks down on his team.


November is a very important time in College Football as the regular season winds down and teams look to earn spots in the Conference Championship Games and then the College Football Playoff, but it also significant in the NFL.

Bye Weeks are concluded over the next month and teams will really begin to feel the post-season as they move into the second half of the schedule.

We might not have any unbeaten teams, but there are plenty who have lost fewer than three games, while the Kansas City Chiefs have back to the head of the outright market despite being at 5-3.

Only four teams are priced up at single digits to win the Super Bowl, which underlines how wide open things continue to feel, and that is where November really begins to help sift through the pack and identify those who can have the big run through to February.


The fact there are not too many teams really pulling clear from the pack does offer opportunities to those making slower than expected starts.

One oft hose teams are playing on Thursday Night Football this week and the Baltimore Ravens also benefit from playing in a Division where the leading team is only a couple of games in front of them. Injuries are looking to be clearing up and Baltimore could see their Super Bowl price come in dramatically over the next few weeks if they can string the wins together.

Four teams have ever begun 1-5 and made the Playoffs in the NFL, but this Ravens team are capable, especially with two games against the Pittsburgh Steelers still on the schedule. They are beginning a three game road trip in Week 9 and if they can return home back at 0.500, everything is possible for this team.


The Ravens are 20-1 to win the Super Bowl, while teams like Tampa Bay, Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks are bigger prices and deserve more respect.

You can't really argue with the facts that Kansas City, Detroit, Green Bay and Buffalo are the only single digit prices for the Super Bowl, but those four teams mentioned all could end up trading much shorter, which should be reassessed at the end of the month.


After losing the opening three selections in Week 9, four straight winners ensured a slight winning week.

There is still room for improvement and it would help if the Week 9 Picks can get off to a good start on Thursday Night Football where so many wrong selections have meant playing from behind.

Like any good team, it is important to get in front of the chains and make plays from there and that is the ambition to open this Week 9 schedule and then push onto the rest of the week.

And remember, you can sign up for Bet365, Bovada or Bodog at the links provided.

Picks for the remainder of Week 9 will be added to this thread in the days ahead.


Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Two teams who won for just the second time in 2025 in Week 8 will meet in South Florida in this Thursday Night Football game, but it does still feel like only the road team can be considered as one capable of climbing out of a poor spot.

The Baltimore Ravens (2-5) and Miami Dolphins (2-6) may both be aware that only four teams have made it through to the post-season after beginning the season at 1-5, but the former play in a much less competitive Division.

While the Pittsburgh Steelers lead the way in the AFC North, the Ravens are only 2 games behind them in the standings.

On the other hand, Miami play in the AFC East where the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills both reside and who have a combined 11-4 record.

There is also the biggest factor of the Baltimore Ravens having Lamar Jackson returning with the team still close enough to the AFC North leading Steelers to get things moving back in their own direction. Unfortunately for the Miami Dolphins, players like Tyreek Hill are not going to be able to return, while there is still real uncertainty about the long-term belief in Quarter Back Tua Tagovailoa and a Head Coach in Mike McDaniel who is almost certainly leaving.

None of that had an impact as the Miami Dolphins upset the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8 behind Tagovailoa's best performance of the season, but sustaining that level against this Baltimore team is going to be far from easy.

Injuries have decimated the Ravens on the Defensive side of the ball, but they certainly looked a lot better all around out of the Bye Week when beating the Chicago Bears and ending their run of losses. It would have been a time when Head Coach John Harbaugh was just able to help the team reset and the boost of a returning Lamar Jackson will be felt on both sides of the ball.

The Miami Offensive Line may still feel they can help establish the run, which is extremely important for the Quarter Back and for the game-calling. but there will be a feeling within the Baltimore camp that the Defensive Line will settle down. They are without some important names, but the players who have come in will know the job is to keep for the rest of the season and they may be able to slow down Miami for just long enough to give the team a chance.

There have been some improvements in the play of the Secondary too and this inconsistent Miami passing game is without key contributors. That made no impact in Week 8 in Atlanta, but the challenge will be different on this short week and Lamar Jackson's presence could mean the road team are putting scoreboard pressure on the Dolphins.

It was clear the NFL have not been happy with the injury reporting that Baltimore put together last week and even Head Coach John Harbaugh admitted there had been mistakes. They had been implying that Lamar Jackson had been practicing in the lead up to the game against Chicago, but that proved to be untrue and the Ravens are likely to be punished for the incorrect reports they had handed out.

This week Lamar Jackson has been practicing with the first team and his return could spark the Baltimore Ravens after they had been treading water without him.

The whole Offensive game-plan changes with Jackson behind Center rather than Cooper Rush- Tyler Huntley does a decent Jackson impression and led the way in the win over Chicago, but the latter is a much stronger Quarter Back and everyone on this unit benefits with him playing.

Derrick Henry will certainly look to have a big impact running the ball against a Miami Defensive Line that have been absolutely battered up front at times this season. Credit has to be given to the Dolphins for containing Bijan Robinson in Week 8, but a mobile Quarter Back like Lamar Jackson makes things that much more difficult for any team and both the Quarter Back and Derrick Henry are expected to have some real success on the ground.

This will open up the passing lanes against an injury-hit Secondary, while the Quarter Back is expected to have time in the pocket to make his plays down the field from third and manageable spots.

You cannot ignore the fact that this is a big spread when you think of how competitive some of the Miami defeats have been this season- they were blown out by the Cleveland Browns in a miserable effort in miserable conditions, but Miami have pushed the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers in home losses by a combined 8 points.

The road losses have been much more straight-forward, but Miami have not covered in any of their last four games played against non-Divisional opponents after winning as an underdog.

In their last eleven Thursday night games, the straight up winner has covered the spread each time and that is an issue for the Miami Dolphins who are not expected to win this one.

Lamar Jackson is only just returning from a hamstring issue so there are some concerns about this selection and so units must remain at a minimum for this one, even though the Ravens feel the right choice to show what they may still achieve this season.


Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions Pick: Three teams in the NFC North have a winning record as we have entered Week 9 of the season and that will not surprise anyone considering the Division sent three teams to the Playoffs last season.

However, the one surprise may be the fact that the Minnesota Vikings (3-4) are the one team that are below 0.500 and the entire team needs to just reset.

A decision was made to move on from Sam Darnold and hand the keys to the First Round Draft Pick JJ McCarthy, who had spent the entire 2024 season on the sidelines. After a couple of mixed starts, McCarthy picked up another injury and has been out of action with Carson Wentz filling in, although the latter has been playing through the pain.

In Week 9 the ball will be back in JJ McCarthy's hands and the Vikings need him to get up to speed pretty quickly as they prepare to travel to the Detroit Lions (5-2).

The Bye Week came at a good time for the Lions and it may have given some key players the chance to get through the injury problems that have been holding them back. They are still without a couple of solid performers, but Detroit have to be really happy with the first seven games of the 2025 season as they look to finally end the long, long wait to reach the Super Bowl.

Nothing much has been wrong with the way the Detroit Lions have played on the Offensive side of the ball, although they are going up against a tough Minnesota Defensive unit.

In recent games the Vikings Defensive Line have improved the performance against the run, but slowing down Sonic and Knuckles is a different test. The Lions imposed themselves on the ground against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 7 and they will certainly be confident in the ability of the Offensive Line to open up some solid running lanes in this one to ease the pressure on Jared Goff.

The Quarter Back has been under a bit more pressure in the pocket than he has perhaps been used to since signing with the Detroit Lions, but that should be eased if the team are running the ball as they were against the Buccaneers.

Jared Goff has plenty of weapons to target down the field if given the time to allow routes to develop and this Minnesota Secondary have had some problems in stopping the pass.

With the balance that the Lions can produce Offensively, they should be able to move the chains with some consistency and the pressure will be on the Minnesota Vikings to try and keep up on the scoreboard with a returning Quarter Back.

It may all be on JJ McCarthy's arm with the Vikings struggling for some consistency when it comes to running the ball, but it is simply important for Minnesota to at least keep the young Quarter Back in third and manageable spots.

Doing that will allow McCarthy to make some plays against a banged up Secondary, especially with the top Receivers that are around him. It would also be key to find some time in the pocket with the Vikings struggling in pass protection and facing a Lions pass rush that will be desperate to rush the Quarter Back and try and protect the Secondary by speeding up the passes that need to be delivered.

Turnovers could be key and that is where the Lions may have an edge as they look to move to 2-1 within the NFC North.

Last season they blew out the Minnesota Vikings at home and the latter are a team that are just 1-8 against the spread in the last nine games when facing an opponent playing with rest.

This is a big spread, but the Lions may keep the scoreboard pressure on this Divisional rival and that may ultimately see them come away with a big home victory.


Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans Pick: An Interim Head Coach will take over the rest of the way, but the Tennessee Titans (1-7) are going to have to make big decisions at the end of this season. They do feel that they have the franchise Quarter Back in the building, but there is very little around Cam Ward right now and the Titans may end up with the top Draft Pick again.

That may actually speed up any rebuild with the likelihood that the Titans would trade out of the position, but none of the players on the roster right now can think ahead to April.

Instead they are fighting for their own jobs and Tennessee need to find something positive as they prepare to host the Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) who are a game behind the Denver Broncos in the AFC West.

Injuries are hurting both teams, but the Los Angeles Chargers have to be credited for fighting through adversity. They can certainly be grateful to Justin Herbert at Quarter Back and this is a big chance to pump out some strong passing numbers against this banged up Secondary.

Justin Herbert does not have to do everything himself- the Chargers Offensive Line have been opening up some big running lanes and Kimani Vidal has made full use of his opportunity at Running Back to impress. This looks to be another game in which Vidal can rip off some huge gains and keep the Los Angeles Chargers Offensive unit in positive field position.

The Offensive Line have not been as strong in pass protection, but they may not have to hold up that long with Herbert likely able to get the ball out of his hands pretty quickly. Running the ball well should mean Justin Herbert can employ play-action to attack Tennessee down the field and this should be a day in which the Chargers have plenty of Offensive success.

As has been the case for much of the season, the question for the Tennessee Titans is whether they can do enough when they have the ball to keep themselves competitive on the scoreboard?

While the game is close, the Titans may be able to rely on the run against this Chargers Defensive Line that have just had some issues up front, especially in recent games. This is important to put Cam Ward in a good position on the field and to just allow the rookie to make quick, decisive plays, although the Titans are struggling without any real standout skill players to aid Ward.

A real problem for Tennessee is when they have fallen behind- the Offensive Line have simply not offered much protection for their rookie Quarter Back. This is something that the Los Angeles Chargers can exploit and it is a reason the Titans have fallen away in games and we could see something similar here.

Having a mini-Bye to prepare for this game should suit the Chargers too and they can win this game by double digits and cover the mark set.


San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants Pick: Two teams that have major names out through injury face one another in Week 9 of the 2025 season, but it is 'next man up' situations for both.

The San Francisco 49ers (5-3) are still very much in contention in the NFC West, although it is a much tougher turnaround for the New York Giants (2-6).

Once again it is Mac Jones who will be playing at Quarter Back even though Brock Purdy is edging closer and closer to a return. It is the second consecutive road game for the 49ers who were beaten at the Houston Texans last week, but that was a tough match up for them, especially on the Offensive side of the ball.

It is not expected to be the same challenge for Mac Jones and the 49ers in this one and the Offensive Line is certainly going to feel they can open up some running lanes for Christian McCaffrey. The season has been one of inconsistency when it comes to pounding the rock, but the 49ers will not have played too many teams that give up the amount of yardage on the ground that the New York Giants have allowed.

You would have to lean towards the 49ers being successful rather than the Giants finding a way to clamp down on the run and this is going to make life more comfortable for Mac Jones who has not had too many of his top skill players available at the same time.

Being able to throw from third and manageable spots will help and there are areas to exploit in this Giants Secondary.

This is something that Mac Jones has shown he can do and the 49ers can keep the chains moving with a lot more consistency than they could against a tough Houston Defense last week.

Since Jaxson Dart took over at Quarter Back, the New York Giants have won both home games played, but the team have lost Cam Skattebo to a season ending injury after the rookie Running Back had given them a big spark. Malik Nabers is already out and you do have to wonder if the Giants have enough emotional energy to help them through this difficult time.

Recent games have seen the New York Giants produce inconsistent running numbers, but Cam Skattebo's energy was a huge boost for the team. Tyrone Tracy Jr can step in, but he is not expected to have a lot of room up front against this San Francisco Defensive Line, which has remained pretty solid even as the pass rushers continue to go down with injuries.

They are trying to bring in players to give that pass rush a boost, but it should mean Jaxson Dart has a bit more time to throw the ball when he drops back. However, the injuries to key players on this side of the ball may just lead to some inconsistency, even against this banged up San Francisco Secondary.

Ultimately that is where the 49ers may eventually do enough to secure an important road game and with the likelihood that they can establish the run better than they have for much of the season.

It is unlikely to be a blowout, but the road team can do enough to win this one and cover the spread set.

MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Chargers - 9.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)
Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)
Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)
Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)
Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 23-22, - 1.12 Units (45 Units Staked, - 2.49% Yield)

Saturday, 2 November 2024

College Football Week 10 Picks 2024 (Saturday 2nd November)

With the calendar ticking over to November, the College Football regular season enters the final furlong towards the new Playoff.

The top teams in the Power 4 Conferences will be targeting the Championship Game first and foremost and Week 10 is another where a number of big games are set that will begin to separate the pretenders from the contenders.


After the Week 9 bounce back, three of the last four College Football Weeks have returned a profit. However, there is still some way to go to get this season back in the black and it is important to build on the 4-2 run last time out.


Ohio State Buckeyes @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: The expanded College Football Playoff does offer a room in the final twelve for a team that has not won a Conference Championship, especially if that team is playing in a solid Conference like the Big Ten.

With teams already holding plenty of losses throughout the SEC, there is an opportunity here for the likes of the Penn State Nittany Lions (7-0) and Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) ahead of this huge game in Week 10 of the College Football season.

Both will still have major ambitions of winning the Big Ten Conference, although Oregon and Indiana will have something to say about that, and this is a big opportunity to put a statement win on the board that will impress the Committee when the final Playoff selections are made.

You have to feel there is a bit more pressure on the Buckeyes who have already suffered a very close loss at the Oregon Ducks- losing twice in a Conference where we could have two unbeaten teams competing for the Championship would make it that much tougher for Ohio State to make their claim.

In saying that, the unbeaten Nittany Lions will not want to lose any momentum by being beaten by the Buckeyes again with seven straight losses against this rival having played in the same Division within the Big Ten in previous years. The Nittany Lions are 5-2 against the spread in that seven game losing run, which underlines the fact they are a competitive outfit that tends to do better than expected and Head Coach James Franklin will be hoping that means winning outright in 2024.

There are concerns about the Penn State Quarter Back position after Drew Allar had to sit out the second half in the win over the Wisconsin Badgers. It sounds like he will be a game time decision with the Nittany Lions preparing Beau Pribula to take the snaps after he came in and had 98 second half passing yards with a Touchdown in the win over the Badgers.

Of course facing the Buckeyes Defensive unit is a much different challenge, even if the Quarter Back will be playing behind an Offensive Line that has found a way to give them time in the pocket. This will be important to try and find the few holes that have been in the Buckeyes Secondary in recent games, but it will be a test for either Drew Allar or Beau Pribula and the bigger impact they could have on the game is not turning the ball over.

The latter showed off his ability to move the ball on the ground last week in his second half appearance and that will also be important to just keep Penn State in front of the down and distance. The battle at the Line of Scrimmage is going to be a tough one all day, but it feels like the Nittany Lions will persist and that could just help in what could be a field battle kind of day.

Ohio State were not very convincing out of their Bye Week following the loss to the Ducks, but they did hold on to beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Improvements will be needed if the Buckeyes are going to avoid a second, potentially devastating loss when it comes to the season ambitions, and injuries to the Offensive Line have come at a bad time.

It may mean the Buckeyes are not able to run the ball as effectively as they would like and that will put some pressure on Will Howard at Quarter Back. We have not seen the Nittany Lions generate a massive pass rush of late, but playing a third string Left Tackle is a big advantage and it may just mean they can disrupt things a little more at the Line of Scrimmage, which is so important when it comes to stalling drives.

Once again, the Buckeyes, like the Nittany Lions, will look to avoid the turnovers that can swing what is a potentially tight game. The home team will be motivated by being set as the underdog against Ohio State again and this has the makings of a game that may come down to the wire, which could make the points in hand the telling difference when it comes to the window.


Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: Fans will be keeping an eye on the early kick off slot on Saturday in Week 10 of the College Football season, but the Indiana Hoosiers (8-0) Coaching staff and players have to focus on their own job. It is a real surprise to see Indiana as one of three teams with an unbeaten record at the top of the Big Ten Conference, but the Hoosiers do not want the run to end now and there is a big ambition to not only make the Conference Championship Game, but to earn a spot in the twelve team College Football Playoffs.

The next three games will be key for the Hoosiers as they prepare to face Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes either side of a Bye Week.

First up is the Michigan State Spartans (4-4) who were disappointingly beaten by rivals Michigan in Week 9 and who still have work to do when it comes to earning Bowl eligibility. This is a rivalry game for both the Spartans and Hoosiers so motivation will not be hard to find, while the road team has won four in a row in the head to head series.

The last was a win for the Spartans twelve months ago as they upset the Hoosiers as the underdog.

It won't have been forgotten by the Indiana players as they prepare to travel into hostile territory and the major question remains the status of Quarter Back Kurtis Rourke. He has been announced as the starter having missed the Week 9 win over the Washington Huskies, but Rourke will just have to show he has overcome any mental demons that can be formed after injury.

The return of Kurtis Rourke will give the passing game a jolt, but the main focus for the Hoosiers is to get behind this Offensive Line and bully teams on the ground. Tayven Jackson may not have offered the same passing threat to prevent teams from trying to load the box, but that is not the case with Rourke back and Michigan State have really not been able to clamp down on the run with any authority.

This is important to help the returning Quarter Back to ease into the game and Kurtis Rourke is expected to have time in the pocket when he does step back to throw into this Spartans Secondary.

Michigan State's challenge will be keeping up with the Indiana Offensive unit that will be feeling confident with their starting Quarter Back in the lineup. Four losses in five games has just seen the strong start to the season disappear, while the seasonal average of 21 points per game is not going to cut it.

However, even getting to that average mark against this Indiana Defense is going to be a huge test for the hosts and may be the reason the Hoosiers are not only unbeaten at the final whistle, but covering the spread set for the seventh time in a row.

A bit more consistency from Quarter Back Aidan Chiles has helped, but the Spartans Offensive Line have not really been able to create running lanes to ensure their signal caller is playing from manageable down and distance. Trying to run the ball against Indiana has been even more of an issue and so it feels like this is a game that is going to come down to the arm of Aidan Chiles.

There is a bit of room in the Indiana Secondary that could be exploited, although teams might have had more success by being forced to throw fifty times a game to keep up on the scoreboard. However, Aidan Chiles will be hoping the Offensive Line can stand up to the pass rush pressure and then also have to be very much aware of the turnover creating nature of the Hoosiers Defensive Backs.

A backdoor cover cannot be ruled out with the spread set as it is, but double digit wins have been the norm for Indiana this season and they did win by 24 points and 8 points in their last two visits to Michigan State. Doing the same again is entirely possible and that would mean a cover of this mark as the Hoosiers very much keep the Cinderella run going.


Kansas State Wildcats @ Houston Cougars Pick: It was not nearly as 'easy' as the Kansas State Wildcats (7-1) were expected to make it, but a win in a rivalry game will still have boosted the confidence. The Big 12 has not been the most impressive of Conferences this season and there is every chance that the Wildcats could compete for a Championship, which would mean they are heading into the College Football Playoff.

An upcoming Bye Week will allow the Wildcats to really focus on the last run, but it would not be nearly as meaningful if they were to lose in Week 10. In fact any loss before the final regular season game at the Iowa State Cyclones may mean missing out on the Big 12 Championship Game and so there is a pressure on Kansas State to remain focused.

Next up is the Houston Cougars (3-5) who have won two of their last three games and may still feel they have a strong enough ending to the season to earn a Bowl Game. It has been something of a feast or famine event at the recent Houston games with their five Conference losses either ending in a blowout loss or an outright win.

They are at home in Week 10 and Houston may still have a big impact on the final standings in the Big 12 with two of their remaining four games being against Kansas State and BYU.

Houston perhaps do not match up as well with the Kansas State Wildcats as they would like and that could make things challenging when they have the ball. The Cougars much prefer to run the ball than throw it, but that plays into the strengths of this Wildcats unit and may mean the Cougars are a touch inconsistent through the Four Quarters.

The Cougars are not likely to lose faith in the run, but it could be a real struggle and that will mean leaving Zeon Chriss in third and long spots. Rather than being a dual-threat Quarter Back, Chriss is someone that will run first and pass second, but that may mean he is not able to exploit the issues that Kansas State have in the Secondary.

Donovan Smith was not involved in the win over the Utah Utes last week, but his status is unclear. Even if he was available, the Houston Offensive Line could have problems keeping the Wildcats out of the backfield when the Quarter Back drops back to throw and it could lead to the extra possessions to help Kansas State ease clear in this one.

The Line of Scrimmage is always important and the Kansas State Wildcats look to have an edge on both sides of the ball- while they have shown they can clamp down on the run, the Wildcats Offensive Line have thrived up front and this Houston team is not expected to have the same stopping abilities as their visitors.

Avery Johnson will benefit from being in third and manageable spots, while also employing play-action to attack this Cougars Secondary down the field. It should give the Wildcats a chance to move the ball with more consistency and they should be ending drives by punching the ball into the End Zone rather than settling for Field Goals.

Last season, the Wildcats blew out Houston at home.

This one will be closer, but a two Touchdown win looks likely for the road team as they remain on track for a spot in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game. The scare last week should help keep the team focused and Houston have taken a number of big losses in the Big 12 already, with this game more likely to trend that way rather than in an upset for the Cougars.


Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: Beating the Alabama Crimson Tide ahead of their last Bye Week will feel like a big win for the Tennessee Volunteers (6-1), but there is work to do. Having already suffered a defeat, the win over the Crimson Tide was very important for Tennessee and it is important for the Volunteers to keep the positive run going before they play the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 11.

They face the Kentucky Wildcats (3-5) in a rivalry game out of the Bye and it has been a tough year for the Wildcats in the SEC where they have a 1-5 record. The competitive defeat to Georgia stands out, but the Wildcats have not been nearly as competitive in losses to South Carolina and Florida.

One of the major talking points ahead of this SEC game is going to surround the Kentucky Offensive unit and whether they can score enough points. They average 19 points per game on the season, but it has been much more a struggle when stepping up to the SEC level and this Volunteers Defensive unit deserves plenty of respect.

In reality the Wildcats do not match up well with Tennessee and it all begins right on the Line of Scrimmage as Kentucky would love to establish the run. Unfortunately they are facing a Volunteers Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run all season and the impressive numbers being produced in the SEC suggests they can force Kentucky to try and convert third and long spots on the field.

There is also an uncertainty about the Kentucky Quarter Back position which saw the team take out their starter in a bid to spark the Offense last time out. It didn't work to say the least and it is unlikely that either Brock Vandagriff or Gavin Wimsatt are going to have the confidence to make enough plays against this Secondary, even if the Volunteers have allowed some teams to have passing successes.

Interceptions have been a major problem for Kentucky and now they have to avoid giving up those extra possessions against a Defensive unit that will thrive on picking passes off and shortening the field for their own team.

Covering this kind of spread might be possible if the Tennessee Offensive unit can play up to the level that the Defense have been capable of reaching, but there has been some issues with a freshman Quarter Back. They will give Nick Iamaleava all of the snaps, knowing he will benefit in 2025, but the key for Tennessee is easing any pressure on the young man.

After recent performances from the Kentucky Defensive Line, the Volunteers should be able to give the ball to Dylan Sampson and expect the Running Back to punch through some big holes. Earlier in the season the Wildcats had shown an excitement to stop the run, but that has not been the case in recent games and this Tennessee Offensive Line can open the lanes for Sampson.

Ensuring the team are playing from third and manageable spots is huge for Tennessee and Nick Iamaleava, who will be asked not to take too many risks against the Wildcats Secondary.

It feels like Tennessee could come out of the Bye Week to really punish Kentucky on the ground, especially if the Wildcats are looking to get into their own Bye to just freshen up. The long season without a break can be tough for any team to deal with and that may have contributed to the recent Kentucky struggles to stop the run.

Covering this spread will be tough, especially as Tennessee are just 2-8 against the spread in the last ten against Kentucky. Two of the last three Volunteers wins have been by fewer than 7 points, but the middle of those wins was an absolute blowout and Tennessee could run right through Kentucky with a couple of turnovers helping them pull clear of the mark.

MY PICKS: Penn State Nittany Lions + 3.5 Points @ 1.72 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats - 13 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arkansas Razorbacks + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Saturday, 2 November 2019

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2019 (November 2-3)

There are two more rounds of Premier League Football matches to be played before we head into the next international break of the season and the final one before the draw for the Euro 2020 Finals is made at the end of the month.

Before that we have some big games to get through with the most notable at the top of the table being the Liverpool vs Manchester City game a week on Sunday which is the final League game before the international break.

We also have another round robin of Champions League and Europa League fixtures to get through as Match Day 4 is placed in the books. Some of the teams involved in those matches will be looking to secure their passage through to the Knock Out Rounds which will give managers the chance to rotate the squad and ensure players are fresh for a hectic run out of the November internationals that lasts through to the Winter Break in the Premier League which comes in February.

In this thread I am going to have my Picks from the Weekend Premier League fixtures as well as the Fantasy Football opinions and team for GW11.


Bournemouth v Manchester United Pick: Football can be a funny game and it is one in which things can look a lot rosier for teams and managers very quickly. That is where things stand for Manchester United who looked to be close to having to make a decision about the future of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer as manager of the club before turning around their form with 3 away wins on the bounce.

The win over Partizan wasn't the most impressive, but performances against Norwich City and Chelsea have been much more positive and there is some momentum behind them. They are still 7 points off the top four, but Manchester United will feel they can close that gap in the weeks ahead with League games against Brighton, Sheffield United, Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur to come.

Before that Manchester United will be looking for a fourth away win in a row when they head to the Vitality Stadium on Saturday. They have won 3 in a row over Bournemouth here and might be catching the home team at the right time with Eddie Howe's men just having one or two difficulties at the moment.

Bournemouth might only have lost 1 of their last 6 Premier League games, but they have failed to score in any of their last 3 which is something you don't associate with Eddie Howe teams. Back to back goalless draws with Norwich City and Watford are not great results considering both are in the bottom three and the lack of chances being created has to be a concern for the manager.

There has been an improvement in the defensive side of the game, but that is going to be tested by Manchester United who have suddenly found their goalscoring boots again. The return of Anthony Martial has been important to them and Marcus Rashford's confidence should be high having scored three goals in the last two games.

Even before the win over Chelsea I had Manchester United on my shortlist this week and that has as much to do with their improvement as it does with Bournemouth's recent poor form. The Cherries have been stubborn, but they have not faced too many top teams during their their recent games and I think Manchester United have enough momentum to keep it going here.

Backing the away team on the Asian Handicap will return half the stake in the event of a draw, but Manchester United have won three in a row at the Vitality Stadium and I expect them to extend that run.


Arsenal v Wolves Pick: This is a really important game for Unai Emery to just ease some of the rumours that Arsenal are preparing to move on and potentially bring in Jose Mourinho as a replacement. The issue has been that not many are seeing the kind of stamp Emery was expected to put on this Arsenal squad following on from Arsene Wenger and instead it feels like more of the same but with a new manager.

There have been plenty of positive results as Arsenal still hold a very attacking threat, but defensively it has been a mess for far too long. Last Sunday was the 4th time in 7 home games that Arsenal have conceded at least two goals, and only late winners against Aston Villa and Vitoria have papered over the cracks.

It is going to need an all around performance to beat a Wolves team who fought back for a 1-1 draw at Newcastle United last Sunday. Since returning to the top flight, Wolves have really given some of the big names huge problems and only last month they won 0-2 at Manchester City in the Premier League to show what they are capable of.

Unlike Arsenal, Wolves have generally been defensively sound and that is going to hold them in good stead against a team they earned 4 points from last season. You have to believe Wolves will have their chances to score here and even in the absence of Willy Boly I don't believe they are going to capitulate defensively.

With that in mind I do think Wolves are a decent looking play with the start on the Asian Handicap. It will return half the stake if this fixture ends with a narrow Arsenal win, but I do think Wolves are good enough to avoid defeat on their current form.

Over the last fifteen months, Wolves have drawn at Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge, while beating Tottenham Hotspur at Wembley and Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium. They also drew 1-1 here having led until the 86th minute and I am going to back Wolves with the start to do just about enough to earn a positive result again.


Aston Villa v Liverpool Pick: When you think of how the Premier League has developed over the last fifteen months I think it is going to be very few days in which Liverpool and Manchester City are anything other than short price favourites when they visit clubs expected to be in the lower half of the table come May.

That is the case on Saturday when the League leaders travel to Villa Park, but I do think there is a case to be made for Aston Villa to at least keep things competitive.

For one Aston Villa are creating a lot of chances and they are unbeaten at home in their last 5 games in all competitions. They challenged Manchester City last weekend and things might have been different if not for a sloppy opening to the second half and then a controversial VAR moment when Manchester City were able to make it 2-0.

There is energy in this Aston Villa team and they are facing a Liverpool defence that has been nothing like as watertight as the one they had last season. With Joel Matip ruled out, Dejan Lovren becomes a serious weakness that can be exploited and I do think Aston Villa will cause problems here.

Backing them with the start on the Asian Handicap looks the play despite their poor record against Liverpool in the more recent years. As well as Liverpool have played to move 6 points clear at the top of the Premier League, only 1 of their 5 away League games have resulted in a win by two or more goals.

A deeper look shows only 3 of their last 14 away games have seen Liverpool win by two or more goals and 2 of those games saw that margin reached in the last ten minutes.

There is no doubt in my mind that Liverpool are capable of blowing past Aston Villa, especially with the defensive performances of Dean Smith's team. Aston Villa do give up chances, but Liverpool tend to do just enough away from home to win games and it is a formula that has clearly been working for them.

I do think Aston Villa can score here and if they do they should be good enough to at least avoid a comfortable defeat. Backing the home team with the Asian Handicap start is the call for me here.


Brighton v Norwich City Pick: Even if you do fancy Brighton to beat Norwich City this weekend, the odds on quotes have to be very off-putting. They have beaten Tottenham Hotspur and Everton in games here, but Brighton could have easily failed to do that in the latter and both West Ham United and Burnley have earned positive results here.

This Norwich City team might not be as strong away from home and they are off a very heavy home defeat to Manchester United, but they did recently draw 0-0 with Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium.

That result is hard to shift from the back of the mind and one that makes me think Brighton are plenty short here. Other options look much more appealing over the weekend and I will just say that I do think Brighton are the likely winners for anyone who asks me with a gun to the head.


Manchester City v Southampton Pick: It would have been hard enough to deal with the embarrassing 0-9 home loss suffered last weekend without thinking about having back to back away games at the Champions Manchester City. However that is the position Southampton and Ralph Hasenhuttl have found themselves and the pressure is on the manager.

Losing by the biggest margin at home in the English top Division of ALL TIME is going to be hard to forget for everyone associated with Southampton. The capitulation would have stung, but the manager has to be much happier with the kind of effort produced in the defeat in this Stadium on Tuesday night in the League Cup.

Ultimately Southampton are continuing to concede too many goals though and I really do worry for them on Saturday. The likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling did not play on Tuesday and will be raring to go and I really don't fancy Southampton's chances much of containing Manchester City who continue to rack up the opportunities in the final third and score plenty of goals.

Even getting to half time goalless did not prevent Aston Villa from suffering a 3-0 defeat here last weekend in the Premier League and I have to imagine Manchester City will reach that kind of margin again. The price is not as appealing as it was last weekend and Southampton have to be respected for posing a threat in the final third too, but I can't see anything but another comfortable home win for the Champions who have scored 11 goals in 3 games here since their 0-2 defeat to Wolves.

I won't be that surprised if Southampton have their moments, but Manchester City should see enough quality players chomping at the bit to make this a relatively straight forward day in the office.


Sheffield United v Burnley Pick: Another battling performance saw Sheffield United come from behind to earn another away point in the Premier League and that is already the third time this season they have recovered from being behind on their travels.

All credit has to be given to the players belief and the Chris Wilder tactics, but it has been more of a struggle at home. Scoring enough goals is a real issue for Sheffield United and they are going to be tested by a Burnley team who have made it a habit to earn results in these types of games which has helped them maintain top flight status.

Sheffield United had failed to score in 3 straight home games before the 1-0 win over Arsenal and they are facing a Burnley team who have proven to be stubborn opponents on their travels. Barring a somewhat controversial decision to disallow a Chris Wood game at Leicester City, Burnley would have been coming in with a run of 4 away draws in a row in the League.

With that in mind the draw is a real player here, but I think Burnley have to be backed with a start on the Asian Handicap at the prices here. I am really surprised that Sheffield United are as short as they are considering the issues in front of goal and they have not been as watertight at the back as their clean sheets this season would suggest.

Teams are creating chances against them and Burnley have shown they have goals in the side. Burnley have scored in all 5 away games in the Premier League this season and I really do think one goal is going to be enough to secure at least a point here especially as Burnley have defended better than their results may suggest.

There won't be much between these teams on Saturday afternoon, but backing Burnley with a start looks the play for me and at a reasonable price too.


West Ham United v Newcastle United Pick: Recent performances from both West Ham United and Newcastle United won't be that encouraging, but it should mean that there is plenty of belief that they can earn a result against the other this weekend.

Something will have to give at some point over the ninety minutes as a vulnerable West Ham United defence faces a goal-shy Newcastle United attack. The home team do give up a few opportunities but Manuel Pellegrini will point out 2 clean sheets in 4 Premier League games at the London Stadium this season, although the 1-1 draw against Sheffield United last weekend shows the vulnerabilities West Ham United have.

What has been evident is that West Ham United continue to be a very positive team going forward and I do struggle to see how Newcastle United contain them. The Magpies might have won at Tottenham Hotspur, but they have suffered some heavy away losses and had to be very grateful to their goalkeeper in the 1-0 defeat at Chelsea.

They will need more of the same to earn a result here, but I am not convinced that is going to happen. West Ham United should have enough in the final third to at least create the chances to win this game comfortably and they have needed at least two goals to secure their two wins here already this season.

I think that is going to be a number they need to reach again on Saturday if they are to earn the three points against Newcastle United. There should be enough opportunities to do that and I can't really see Newcastle United scoring more than once having failed to do that away from home this season and only once in their last 9 away Premier League games.

West Ham United have a solid home record against Newcastle United in recent seasons with 3 wins from the last 4 times they have hosted them. They have scored at least two goals in the last 3 against them at home and I will back West Ham United to win a game featuring two or more goals at odds against.


Watford v Chelsea Pick: There will have been some understandable disappointment in the Chelsea dressing room that they were not able to progress in the League Cup, but Frank Lampard won't be allowing the players to lose any belief in their performances. It was a changed team that were beaten and Chelsea have shown they can produce some big performances away from home already this season.

I fully expect Chelsea to bounce back this weekend when they visit Watford in the late Saturday Premier League fixture, although it won't be an easy fixture. The home team are fighting and scratching for points and Chelsea have not defended that well away from home which may offer an opportunity for Watford, although a slim one.

Watford have simply not fired under Quique Sanchez Flores as the fans and the board would have hoped and I do think he is under some pressure for a result before the international break. Going out of the League Cup won't have been a big concern, but Watford need Premier League wins and back to back goalless draws with Sheffield United and Bournemouth will feel like points being dropped.

A lack of confidence has been part of the problem for them, but that isn't the concern of Frank Lampard or his Chelsea players. They have been very clinical in the away games played so far this season and that might be key for this team again.

Chelsea have scored at least two goals in their last 4 away Premier League games and those have resulted in 12 points earned. They can get to that margin again as they look for a third win in four seasons at Vicarage Road and I do think it will be difficult for Watford to match that attacking output.

This will be closer than the layers may think, especially when you think of the recent Chelsea defensive performances and without the protection of N'Golo Kante either. However I think Chelsea will have enough goals to edge it and I will back them to win a game that features at least two goals on the day.


Crystal Palace v Leicester City Pick: Brendan Rodgers looked frustrated and irritated with some of the football he was watching Leicester City play last Friday night as he refused to let the players drop their standards- the funny part of that is they were winning 0-4 at Southampton at the time.

His body language and half time team talk clearly was taken on board by his Leicester City players who ended up with a record breaking 0-9 away win at St Mary's and they are now being genuinely talked about as a potential top four team.

I have no doubt about the quality in the Leicester City squad and being without European Football this season might be a blessing in disguise if they are going to upset the odds again. They might not be a 5000-1 Premier League title winner, but Leicester City were a huge price to finish in the top six let alone the top four and anyone who backed that has to be pleased.

The layers are taking no chances with Leicester City this weekend knowing the freshness of their win over Southampton will be on the minds of all looking to add them to accumulators. However for me they are a very short price to win against a club that has proven to be something of a bogey team for them in the last few seasons.

Crystal Palace are not like Southampton- expect Roy Hodgson's men to sit deep and invite Leicester City onto them before hitting them on the break with the likes of Wilfried Zaha and Andros Townsend. That will constrict the space for Jamie Vardy, while the Crystal Palace players are likely be well aware they have beaten Leicester City 5 times in a row in the Premier League.

Unlike last season, Crystal Palace also look much more comfortable when playing at home in the Premier League this time around. They have deserved to beat Norwich City and are creating chances, while Leicester City had a rare clean sheet away from home last week thanks mainly to Southampton being reduced to ten men very early on.

As much as I like the way Leicester City are performing, I do have to make a point that this is not a team who have been excelling away from home. Take away the win at Southampton and Leicester City have struggled for goals away from home and I do think they look a touch overrated this weekend to win at Selhurst Park.

My feeling is that Crystal Palace can surprise in front of their own fans and one goal might be enough to avoid a defeat. There is no doubting the talent that Leicester City have, but Crystal Palace are far from an easy touch and I would not be surprised at all if they can win this outright.

Instead I like the chance of being able to back Crystal Palace to avoid defeat at the price I have seen and that is my selection.


Everton v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The last game in the Premier League this weekend will be broadcast from Goodison Park and some wags out there might describe this as a 'Sack Match' with the losing manager likely to be under intense pressure.

Both Everton and Tottenham Hotspur are underachieving this season and Marco Silva and Mauricio Pochettino are having their ability to take the respective clubs forward being questioned. For the former it is not getting enough out an Everton squad in which he has invested plenty, while for the latter there are people wondering whether his Tottenham Hotspur team have peaked and need a new voice in the dressing room.

The venue looks to be important with at least Everton keeping their best performances for their fixtures at Goodison Park. They were a touch unfortunate to lose to both Sheffield United and Manchester City here and back to back wins since will have given them a shot in the arm.

It has been far different for Tottenham Hotspur away from home with 1 win from 13 away games in all competitions, and failing to win any of their last 11 on their travels in the Premier League and slipping to defeat 9 times in that run. There is one aspect of losing games, but the other is that Tottenham Hotspur have looked very weak defensively and are conceding far too many and putting that together means confidence can't be in a good place.

At least Tottenham Hotspur will have good memories of facing Everton having won on 2 visits in a row to Goodison Park. That should help a team who are creating chances, but who seem to lack the mental strength to recover from setbacks within matches.

The first goal could be crucial in determining which of these teams win on the day, but an early one could really open up the fixture. The last 5 fixtures between Everton and Tottenham Hotspur have all featured at least three goals shared out and plenty points to that being the outcome of this one when you see how both clubs are performing from attacking and defensive dynamics.

Yerry Mina being out weakens the Everton defence further and I would not be surprised if both teams score here. A 1-1 draw would do little for either and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out in the second of the live Sunday offerings.

MY PICKS: Manchester United - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aston Villa + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.66 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.15 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Crystal Palace + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

October 2019/20: 16-14-2, + 6.14 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)
September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)



Fantasy Football GameWeek 11
It was another week in which my team earned more than the average points in GW10 as I secured 64 more points which put a few more green arrows next to the team.

The Leicester City 0-9 win over Southampton was the one that hurt the most with only one of my eleven players involved in the game after I benched Caglar Soyuncu. Obviously it was a move I regretted while watching the game, but the stats suggested Southampton would have had chances to score and I can't really factor in the red card they received very early on.

It was a damaging result as Leicester City kept a clean sheet and Jamie Vardy banged in three goals, but overall I have to be pleased having had a number of players produce the goods for me. One of those that let me down was Todd Cantwell (as a Manchester United fan I wasn't bothered) and he has been a poor selection since I brought him into my squad. With one Free Transfer this week, Cantwell has been on my 'cut' list and a former squad member is ready to return.

Before I get onto my team for GW11, I will just have a few thoughts about some Fantasy Football options that people are taking up.


Are Leicester City worth Trebling Up?- this seems to be the big question in the FPL Community ever since the hammering of Southampton and many will be picking at least two and possibly even three Leicester City players in their squads.

I already have two secured so would be something of a hypocrite to suggest others shouldn't do it, but it is a case of 'Buyer Beware'. While The Foxes are very pleasing on the eye, I do think they have shown they don't have a massive cutting threat and that is especially away from home.

That might sound crazy after what we saw at St Mary's last week, but it really was something of a one-off. In previous four away games Leicester City have struggled to create a lot of chances so I wouldn't really want multiple attacking players from this team in the belief they are going to provide big returns week after week.

Having a defender is not a bad shout as Leicester City have proven to be about as good as any other team in the Premier League when it comes to restricting chances, but attacking wise I don't think I would be prepared to have more than one of James Maddison, Youri Tielemans and Jamie Vardy.

All should have their moments, but last week was an aberration and even the positive fixture list in front of them is not changing my mind yet... Beat Palace by three or four goals and my tune is one that could be very different by the time GW12 and GW13 roll around.


Anthony Martial is Back- a missed penalty at Norwich City was a disappointment, but Anthony Martial's return is proving to be important for Manchester United who scored more than once in a single game for the first time since beating Chelsea 4-0 at Old Trafford in August.

The Frenchman has made two starts since returning from an injury against Liverpool and has scored two goals, while also freeing up Marcus Rashford from the Number 9 spot.

I think this is crucial return for the way Ole Gunnar Solskjaer wants Manchester United to play and it also boosts the FPL potential of both Martial and Rashford. With games against Bournemouth, Brighton, Sheffield United, Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur to come, I think these players as well as Daniel James become valuable assets.


Going Big at the Back- this was the template I had for my FPL team back in August and the lack of clean sheets suggest it might have been the wrong decision despite the strong returns so far this season.

Some have moved away from it, but I think I have found the balance with the likes of Caglar Soyuncu and John Lundstram meaning I can invest some wealth on other defenders without losing value in other areas of my squad.

I do think Manchester City are still quite vulnerable with injuries they have suffered and especially away from home, but I honestly am expecting Liverpool to turn a corner following the international break when they might be worth investing in again.

It has helped that Leicester City and Sheffield United have the joint best defensive record in the Premier League alongside Liverpool which has made those players I mentioned real value.


My GW11 Fantasy Team
After a solid week my mindset did change slightly with the tactics I wanted to use with my Free Transfers in the FPL GW11.

Last week I mentioned that I was planning to save two transfers that I would then use in GW12, but Anthony Martial's performance in GW10 as well as Todd Cantwell's hamstring issue has made the one transfer for this week an easy one to use.

The Frenchman comes in with a good run of fixtures ahead of him and he could be back on penalty duties if Marcus Rashford is not passed fit. I expect Martial to have chances against the next four opponents Manchester United face and I would expect the designated midfielder in the FPL game to be leading the line in all of those.

His inclusion has meant making a difficult decision on the formation for the week, but I have settled on a 3-5-2 with two bench players who should have the minutes to at least provide make up points if any of the starters i have selected cannot play.

My GW11 team is as follows:

Ederson- a home game with Southampton should give Manchester City a chance of a second Premier League clean sheet in a row.

Benjamin Mendy- with injuries in the Manchester City defence, Mendy should be starting having been rested in the win over Southampton in the League Cup. Always the potential for attacking returns too.

Andrew Robertson- this looks a tough away game at Aston Villa and a clean sheet is far from assured. However Robertson has made up for a lack of those by creating a few chances and earning assists.

John Lundstram- it came down to a straight choice between Lundstram and Fiyoki Timori. I think both teams may struggle for a clean sheet this weekend, but Lundstram might always come away with some attacking points as he continues to be used in midfield.

Raheem Sterling (C)- scored in the win over Aston Villa to maintain his hot form for club and country. Being rested on Tuesday night in the League Cup must surely mean Sterling starts this one against a defensively weak Southampton team.

Sadio Mane- Liverpool may struggle for a clean sheet this weekend, but Aston Villa's poor defensive record will likely be exploited too. Sadio Mane is undroppable at the moment for club manager and Fantasy players alike.

Youri Tielemans- 20 points from the last two GW's is unsustainable, but Tielemans also scored in the League Cup during the week. A huge part of whatever attacking threat Leicester City can provide.

Anthony Martial- a Number 9 for Manchester United as a midfield option in the FPL game. This is a 'no brainer' to select Martial while he is first choice striker for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

Callum Hudson-Odoi- he did not start last weekend at Burnley, but Hudson-Odoi should be back in this week. Faces bottom club Watford and Chelsea have scored plenty of away goals all season.

Tammy Abraham- goals seem to have dried up a bit, but Tammy Abraham remains the first choice for Frank Lampard at Chelsea. Like CHO, Abraham has a very good looking match to get back amongst the goals this weekend.

Joshua King- my patience is beginning to be lost with Josh King who has only returned positive points three times this season. He is on penalties and faces a Manchester United defence that might be without both Harry Maguire and Victor Lindelof this weekend.


Bench- Michael McGovern, Fiyaki Timori (away game at Watford is potentially a clean sheet spot, but Chelsea have not had one away from Stamford Bridge in the League all season which makes others better options), Caglar Soyuncu (I might be burned for a second week in a row, but Crystal Palace should score against Leicester City), Xande Silva