The final week of the regular season of the 2021 College Football campaign will be played over Thanksgiving Weekend and there are some huge games to come over the three days.
I will be updating this thread with selections over the next several hours and I will also place the season totals below.
Boise State Broncos @ San Diego State Aztecs Pick: The 9am local time start for this game in Week 13 of the College Football season underlines the importance of it, because the sole reason for the kick off time is to give the teams a national platform on which they can perform.
We can get a little preoccupied by the College Football PlayOff Rankings, but there are a number of schools around the nation that are achieving big things even if they are not going to be in a position to be selected for those final four places. The Boise State Broncos (7-4) and the San Diego State Aztecs (10-1) are both heading up their respective Divisions in the Mountain West Conference and would be meeting again in the Championship Game next week if the regular season had finished up in Week 12.
Unfortunately it does not end in Week 12 and this is a pivotal game for both teams with both barely holding onto the lead in their Divisions- the Broncos are one of three teams in the Mountain Division that have a 5-2 Conference record, while the Aztecs would miss out on the Championship Game if they lose and the Fresno State Bulldogs have won the game they are playing on Thanksgiving Day.
It is a game that could have an impact on the approach of the Aztecs in this Week 13 encounter- if the Bulldogs have been beaten, San Diego State may not want to give too much away to a potential Championship Game opponent, but a Fresno State win means this is a must win game for the Aztecs too.
For Boise State things are very simple and they have to win this game in a bid to hold off their rivals in the Mountain Division. Next week won't matter if they don't win this game and that should keep the Broncos focused as they look for a fifth win in a row, but they will know how good the San Diego State team are having been beaten just once this season.
The line of scrimmage is going to be dominated by both Defensive Lines in this one and I do think it is going to be very difficult to run the ball against either. All season, the Aztecs Defensive Line have been incredibly stout up front, but the Boise State Broncos Defensive Line have stepped up their own level as the season has progressed and neither Offensive Line has shown they can get the better of a team with the successes each has had on the other side of the ball.
That suggests this is going to be a low-scoring game, but San Diego State have also had issues finding consistency with their passing Offense. It is the Defensive unit that have stepped up and produced this 10-1 record for the Aztecs, and it is going to be a tough day for Lucas Johnson at Quarter Back considering what we have seen from Boise State.
However, there have been one or two signs of wear and tear from the San Diego State Secondary and Hank Bachmeier should be able to have some success against them. The Boise State Quarter Back has been given a little more protection than San Diego State will offer Lucas Johnson and I think that will make the difference on the day as the Boise State Broncos reach another Mountain West Championship Game.
The road team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five between these Conference rivals and I do like the fact that the Boise State Broncos have covered in their last five road games.
San Diego State will be motivated by being a home underdog, but I think they have not played as well as they would have liked in recent weeks and the momentum is with Hank Bachmeier to out-duel Lucas Johnson in a game where neither team is going to have a lot of fun running the ball. The Aztecs may also have lost some of their motivation if the Fresno State Bulldogs have been beaten on Thanksgiving Day and I will look for the Broncos to win and cover on the road in this vital Week 13 game.
Iowa Hawkeyes @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: The top three teams in the Big Ten East have lost just four games combined this season, but the Big Ten West could have a Divisional winner that has as many as four losses on their own. The Iowa Hawkeyes (9-2) will be looking to prevent that happening, but they will need to head to Lincoln and come away with a win over an underachieving Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-8).
Simply reaching Bowl eligibility has been beyond the Cornhuskers in 2021 and they have yet to surpass the three wins earned in 2020 despite playing three games more this time around. Another loss will be tough to swallow for Head Coach Scott Frost, although it sounds like Nebraska are going to give him another season to try and turn the school around despite overseeing his fourth losing season in succession after taking over as Head Coach.
You have to credit Nebraska for the kind of effort they have put in when losing to the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Wisconsin Badgers over their last two games and especially as those two teams may end up making up the Big Ten Championship Game. They have actually produced more yards than the Badgers in the loss in Week 12, but Adrian Martinez is set to miss out at Quarter Back.
Logan Smothers will be getting the call at Quarter Back and he has limited experience at this level, which does make things a little more difficult for the Nebraska Cornhuskers. It is unlikely that the Offensive Line will be able to get Smothers into third and manageable spots often with the way the Hawkeyes Defensive Line have been playing, but the Iowa Secondary has not looked as strong and so there is an opportunity for the Quarter Back to produce some strong tape that could be key to winning the starting job in 2022.
Ultimately there isn't as much pressure on the Cornhuskers with this a shot to nothing and Logan Smothers has to try and take the field with the same mindset. There are holes for him to exploit in the Secondary, but Smothers is going to have to be careful with his throws against a ball-hawking team that will be looking to set the Hawkeyes up in short field situations.
Iowa may need that as they have continued to struggle Offensively and it has been the main reason they have not been able to exert control of the Big Ten West ahead of the final game of the regular season. A win will shift some considerable pressure onto the Wisconsin Badgers who will be playing on Saturday, but Iowa would be foolish to believe this is going to be anything but an easy game.
The Hawkeyes will also be playing with a Quarter Back that began the season as the backup, but Alex Padilla has performed well enough to keep Spencer Petras on the sideline. The Quarter Back has earned the win in the last two starts, but Iowa have lost the yardage battle in both of those wins and I do think they are vulnerable here.
Iowa's Offensive Line have not really been able to establish the run as they would have liked and the Cornhuskers may play closer to the line of scrimmage to make sure they are forcing the Hawkeyes to beat them with the Alex Padilla arm. While the Cornhuskers Defensive Line have not played as well as they would have liked in recent games, they will feel they can at least force some stops up front and that can give them a chance of avoiding a nine loss season for the first time in over sixty years.
Alex Padilla has at least managed games well enough to give the Hawkeyes a chance to win here and I think that is important even if the team are averaging just 155 passing yards per game in their last three games. Like the Hawkeyes, the Cornhuskers Secondary have given up some big plays in recent games and without the Interceptions to make those stats look better, but you do have to wonder if Padilla has the confidence or the experience to exploit the holes through the air.
Games between these Divisional rivals have unsurprisingly been competitive and I think this one will be no different. The chance to play spoiler should be motivation for the home crowd that does turn up at the Memorial Stadium, and I do think the Cornhuskers have been a little unfortunate to not have a much stronger record.
The spread is a narrow one in favour of Nebraska and the Hawkeyes are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten as the road underdog. As bad as the record is, the Cornhuskers are 8-2-1 against the spread in their last eleven games after a loss and I think they can put in one more big effort which gives them a chance of the narrow win to close out this season and give Scott Frost some momentum to take into the 2022 season, a big one for the Head Coach.
Colorado Buffaloes @ Utah Utes Pick: A place in the Pac-12 Championship Game has been secured by the Utah Utes (8-3) thanks to a 7-1 record in the Conference and they have won four games in a row. They will be favourites to become Conference Champions and Utah may yet match the eleven wins they secured a couple of seasons ago, even if they were not able to win the Conference that season.
Winning the Conference Championship for the first time will make this a very special season for the Utah Utes and they won't want the momentum to slip ahead of the Championship Game. They are big favourites to beat the Colorado Buffaloes (4-7) who have not had a winning season in a full year since 2016.
Colorado finished 4-2 last season in a Covid-hit year for College Football, but an upset on the road will mean they have another 5-7 record in a full season having finished at that mark in 2017, 2018 and 2019.
The Buffaloes will have to be respected having won two of their last three games, while Colorado also covered the spread as a big underdog in their defeat to the Oregon Ducks. However, they are going to be facing a very tough Utah Defensive unit who have picked up their level down the stretch as they look to peak at the Championship Game in Week 14.
Controlling the line of scrimmage has been a huge part of the successes the Utah Utes have put together and I think that will be the key to outcome of this game too. It has been very difficult to run the ball against the Utes Defensive Line and I think the Colorado Offensive unit has not really been playing well enough to think they will have much more consistency than recent Utah opponents have failed to produce.
On the other side of the ball, Colorado have struggled to stop the run themselves and Utah should be able to have their way running the ball as much as they like. That just opens up the passing game against a vulnerable Colorado Secondary and I think that leads to Utah putting together another big Offensive outing against a Pac-12 opponent.
Passing the ball will be a tough challenge for the Buffaloes too and I do think Utah will be able to continue their recent dominance of this opponent having won their last five games against Colorado by an average of just over 22 points per game.
There is a potential for Utah to look ahead to the Championship Game and pull starters if they are in a very strong position in the game, but I also think a final home game should mean the Senior players get a chance to shine. It should lead to a blow out in favour of the Utah Utes as they look to win a first Pac-12 title next week.
Utah have a strong record as the home favourite, while the Buffaloes are just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games as the road underdog. I think those trends are extended here and I will look for the Utes to produce a big win on the day.
North Carolina Tar Heels @ NC State Wolfpack Pick: This has been an underwhelming season for the North Carolina Tar Heels (6-5) who will be Bowl eligible, but who have fallen well short of pre-season predictions of being favourites to win the AAC Coastal Division. The Tar Heels have only produced a 3-4 record in the Conference, but they will be keen to at least play spoiler for a rival.
The Tar Heels will be heading to Raleigh to take on the NC State Wolfpack (8-3) who can still earn their way into the AAC Championship Game. The home team have to win on Friday and hope the Boston College Eagles can beat the Wake Forest Demon Deacons, but the Wolfpack have to concentrate on what they can control and that is making sure they put in a huge effort to beat North Carolina in their final home game.
Sam Howell was considered one of the top Quarter Back prospects in College Football, but he has not really played up to the level that the Tar Heels fans would have been hoping. He was banged up in Week 12 and missed out, but Howell is expected to suit up against the tough Wolfpack Defensive unit and North Carolina are going to need him to be at his best.
In recent games the Tar Heels have been able to run the ball efficiently, but it has not been easy to do that with consistency against the Wolfpack Defensive Line and I do think that is going to be a key to how the underdog will play. If they are not able to run the ball, North Carolina may leave Sam Howell in a difficult position to keep the chains moving, especially dealing with an injury and behind an Offensive Line that has struggled in pass protection.
Being in third and long would be a massive win for the NC State Defensive unit and the Secondary has benefited from the Defensive Line clamping down on the run. They can generate a fierce pass rush and the Wolfpack should be able to rattle Sam Howell and force drives to stall and potentially even flip field position.
Running the ball has been an issue for the Wolfpack, but they may have a little more success in this one. With the passing game producing at a high level and facing a Tar Heels Secondary that has been struggling down the stretch, there could more room for the NC State Offensive Line to exploit up front and I think they will be able to have more Offensive consistency than their rival.
There will be some pass protection issues, but I do think the Wolfpack have been very happy in home surroundings and they can put themselves in a position to cover what is a relatively wide spread for a rivalry game. The Wolfpack should be motivated to earn revenge for a blowout loss to the Tar Heels here two seasons ago, while the chance to earn a Championship Game spot will keep the fans behind the home team.
North Carolina have a 1-4 record against the spread in their last five games as the road underdog, while the NC State Wolfpack have won nine in a row at home and are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the home favourite.
It should be a competitive game, but the Tar Heels have lost by at least a Touchdown margin against the Pittsburgh Panthers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish in recent games. The NC State Wolfpack are a strong team and especially in Raleigh and I think they can win by a similar margin to those two Ranked teams as they then turn their attention to backing the Boston College Eagles.
MY PICKS: Boise State Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 1 Point @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Utah Utes - 24 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
NC State Wolfpack - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Boston College Eagles + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Virginia Tech Hokies + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
USC Trojans + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
