Midweek Football Picks 2018 (November 27-29)

Match Day 5 of the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage takes place this week and we should have a number of clubs booking their places in the Knock Out Rounds of the competition.

With an incredibly busy festive period kicking off, teams will want to put their European commitments to the back of the mind until next February as soon as possible. That is especially true for those playing in the English Premier League which has the heaviest of the Christmas schedules compared to the other top European Leagues and three of the four teams involved in the Champions League will likely be through to the Last 16 if they are able to win on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Tottenham Hotspur have the most work to do, while Liverpool will need to upset Paris Saint-Germain in the French capital, but both Manchester clubs look in a very strong position. Manchester City are through to the Last 16 for all intents and purposes, but a win on Tuesday would secure top spot, while Manchester United will go through if they beat Young Boys at home and Valencia fail to match the United win in Turin.

In the Europa League things are much more simpler with both Arsenal and Chelsea already through to the Last 32 of the competition. The race for the top four back in the Premier League is going to be a real battle with the way things have developed in the first three months of the season, so having the second avenue back into the Champions League through Europa League success is something that won't be ignored by the two new managers of those London clubs.

Unai Emery in particular has had notable success in the Europa League and has admitted he would rather get back into the Champions League by winning that trophy instead of a top four finish.

Juventus v Valencia Pick: The pressure has shifted to Valencia after seeing their main rivals for a place in the Last 16 win in Turin earlier this month.

The Manchester United come from behind win over Juventus means they are 2 points clear of Valencia and with a winnable home game to come on Match Day 5. It simply adds up to Valencia needing to head to Turin and most likely win if they are going to remain alive on Match Day 6 for a place in the Last 16 of the Champions League.

Valencia have only won 1 of their last 6 away games in European competition and they are facing a Juventus team who will be looking to return this Stadium into the fortress it had been in European Football. Some of the aura has been lost during a run of 1 win from 5 home Champions League games and Juventus have lost 2 of their last 3 here, but fans will recognise the unfortunate manner of the loss to Manchester United.

A similar performance will make Juventus very difficult to beat and they look to be a little healthier in forward areas going into Match Day 5 as they look to maintain control of this Group. The 1-2 home loss to Manchester United does mean the head to head has been lost to the Premier League club so Juventus can't really afford a slip if Manchester United are somehow able to win their last 2 Champions League games.

Juventus have been very strong at home with 9 wins from their last 11 games here in all competitions. The situation should be one that works to their advantage with Valencia likely having to take chances at some point as they chase the win they are more likely going to need to have a chance to make the Last 16 of the Champions League.

That should mean spaces open up for a Juventus team who are looking to win the Group and I will back the Italian Champions to win well on Tuesday.

Lyon v Manchester City Pick: After being beaten on Match Day 1 at home, Pep Guardiola and Manchester City would have signed up being in a position where a revenge win over Lyon would be enough to take them through to the Champions League Last 16 as Group Winners.

Even a draw would mean Manchester City are firmly in control of the Group, but Guardiola doesn't really play for draws and his team are in such strong form that you can't imagine anyone connected with the club settling for it.

They were surprised by Lyon back in September as the French side countered with speed and energy against a lacklustre Manchester City. The defeat should be motivation enough for Manchester City to try and turn things around and they have won 12 of 13 games in all competitions since the home loss to Lyon.

Lyon won't be a pushover, as they have already proved in this Group with the win at the Etihad Stadium, but they have struggled defensively since then. The side have conceded at least twice in each of their 3 Champions League games since the win over Manchester City including in back to back 2-2 draws at home.

They have come from behind to earn draws with Hoffenheim and Shakhtar Donetsk in this Group, but that won't be easy to do against Manchester City who look to be taking as strong a squad as possible to France for this game. Manchester City will have a few days to rest after this game before being back in Premier League action and I think their strong away record in the Champions League over the last fifteen months can't be ignored.

I have to respect a Lyon team who have scored plenty of goals in the Champions League this season, but Manchester City are in stunning form at the moment. This feels like the kind of game where Manchester City can make a statement to the rest of the teams in the Champions League that they are ready to challenge for the trophy come May.

The home team should be able to play their part in this one, but I think Manchester City might be too strong for them on current form. I will back the English Champions to win this one by a couple of goals on the day as they are able to really twist the screw if they go ahead like Hoffenheim and Shakhtar Donetsk have been able to do in games against Lyon in this Group.

Manchester United v Young Boys Pick: It is hard to really trust Manchester United to win any game of football at the moment and it is no different on Tuesday when they face what should be an overmatched opponent in Young Boys.

The confidence of the squad looks to be fragile at best and Jose Mourinho continues to point the fingers at almost anybody but himself. Some of the tactics have been questionable though and the perseverance with Nemanja Matic in the middle of the park is frustration as was the recall for Romelu Lukaku on Saturday despite Manchester United looking more fluid without him.

That is down to the manager and ultimately he is going to fall on his own sword if Manchester United can't find some consistent results sooner rather than later.

This is a game that should be one Manchester United can dominate as they face a Young Boys team who have struggled with the step up to the Champions League level. Young Boys have already been beaten comfortably at Juventus and Valencia in this Group and they were beaten 0-3 by Manchester United at home as the defensive strength was exposed at this level of competition.

Manchester United have to start better than they have been to take away any confidence Young Boys may have. It isn't easy to trust that is going to happen, but I have to believe there will be some reaction to Saturday and knowing a win should be enough to progress through to the Last 16 has to be motivation for the players to produce a big performance.

I am finding it hard to trust Manchester United considering the form shown for several months now, but it would be the lowest point for the club if they can't win this one. After beating Juventus in Turin it would be a real waste if Manchester United can't back that up and win this fixture.

The fans at Old Trafford are going to be restless so a fast start is imperative for Manchester United. I think they are going to be too strong for Young Boys considering the gap in quality of the two squads and I do believe Manchester United can match the margin of wins both Juventus and Valencia have had over the Swiss Champions in the previous 2 away games played by Young Boys.

Paris Saint-Germain v Liverpool Pick: This is a massive Champions League game for both Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool who would have both been popular picks to challenge for the trophy this season.

Neither one of these teams can be happy about dropping into the Europa League, but the losing team on Wednesday could be in big trouble if Napoli win as expected when they host Crvena Zvezda.

There is more pressure on Paris Saint-Germain who know a defeat would likely mean they are exiting the tournament. Even a draw may not be good enough and they are hoping Kylian Mbappe and Neymar will be passed fit for this fixture having picked up knocks during the last international break.

With that situation in mind, you would think Liverpool could cause some big problems on the counter attack, but this team have produced their two worst performances in the 2018/19 season in their two away Champions League games. Don't be fooled by the late 1-0 loss in Naples as Liverpool were very fortunate not to have lost by a much wider margin and they followed that up with a lacklustre 2-0 defeat in Belgrade to Crvena Zvezda.

A similar performance to those two would put Liverpool on the back foot in this one and Paris Saint-Germain have been very good at home in the Champions League.

I won't deny that Paris Saint-Germain have tended to disappoint me when they have played and they needed a late goal to earn a home draw with Napoli. They were beaten 1-2 by Real Madrid and defensively Liverpool will feel there are some holes to exploit which makes them dangerous.

However Liverpool have lost 3 straight away games in the Champions League and they have not been as strong as they would have liked so far in the competition. I think that gives Paris Saint-Germain the slight edge in this one and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to secure a vital three points and leave Liverpool in a must win situation on Match Day 6 against Napoli at Anfield.

PSV Eindhoven v Barcelona Pick: Playing away from home has been a difficult task for Barcelona in recent Champions League games, but they are facing a PSV Eindhoven team who have struggled to reach the required standards to compete in the Champions League this season.

In both home games PSV Eindhoven have conceded twice to Inter Milan and Tottenham Hotspur and the situation is a difficult one for the Dutch Champions.

They will need at least a point to have a chance of making it through to the Europa League Last 32 and that means perhaps taking more risks than they would want to against Barcelona.

PSV Eindhoven do have some energy in the forward areas which caused Barcelona some problems when these two teams met at the Nou Camp. That means they deserve some respect, especially in front of their own fans, and Barcelona could be missing some key players that most definitely weakens them.

Even with that in mind it is hard to see PSV Eindhoven being able to contain the threat of Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi and I think the situation means they will leave spaces to be exploited in the second half. That should give Barcelona enough of an advantage to win here and I think they can put PSV Eindhoven away with a killer goal late in the game.

A win will secure top spot in the Group for Barcelona and they can achieve that with a good looking win in the Netherlands.

Tottenham Hotspur v Inter Milan Pick: There are some big, important Champions League games being played this week as we have reached Match Day 5 of the Group games and one of those comes from Wembley Stadium as Tottenham Hotspur look to take another step towards the great escape.

After earning one point from their first 3 Champions League games, Tottenham Hotspur really needed to win their last 3 games in the Group to have a chance to progress. They managed the first by coming from behind to beat PSV Eindhoven, but Inter Milan's draw with Barcelona has just complicated things a little bit.

It now means Tottenham Hotspur have to win this game 1-0 or by two or more clear goals so they have the head to head advantage over Inter Milan who are 3 points clear of Spurs going into this round of fixtures. A draw would be good enough for Inter Milan to make it through to the Last 16 before Match Day 6 and it should be a tense game for both teams.

However the Tottenham Hotspur performance in their 3-1 win over Chelsea on Saturday will provide a huge boost of confidence and I do think Inter Milan have overachieved in this Group. The Italian side have lost 2 of their last 3 away games including a crushing 4-1 defeat at Atalanta last time out, while they have lost 5 of their last 6 away games in European competition.

There is pressure on Tottenham Hotspur to win by a margin that gives them the head to head advantage over Inter Milan, but I do think the home team can get the better of their visitors. The return of Jan Vertonghen could be huge for Tottenham Hotspur who look healthier in the forward areas and that can give them the edge in this one.

I think Tottenham Hotspur will win this one and I will back them to win a game that features two or more goals as they head into Match Day 6 with every chance of scraping into the Last 16 after a poor start to the Group.

MY PICKS: Ajax & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

CSKA Moscow & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.15 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Hoffenheim & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Roma + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)

Bayern Munich - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Juventus - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Borussia Dortmund - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)

Porto & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.35 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Napoli - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Paris Saint-Germain - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)

Barcelona - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (November 21-23)

This week we get into Match Day 5 of the Champions League and Europa League which means teams are beginning to rotate their squads as they have gotten into a position where the goals have already been achieved.

I am mainly speaking about the leading contenders and the likes of Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and Arsenal have already booked their place in the Knock Out Rounds of their respective European competitions.

The English clubs have a ridiculously busy December coming up which is already on the mind of the managers and so getting a chance to rest players is very important with plenty of rotation to come in the weeks ahead.


I have written a short piece about Manchester United ahead of the game against Newcastle United which can be read here.

Now onto the picks from the Match Day 5 fixtures in the Champions League and Europa League which are played in the next three days.


Besiktas v Porto Pick: With a place all but confirmed in the Last 16, Besiktas can earn themselves not only a definite place in the Second Round but all secure top spot in the Group if they can avoid defeat on Match Day 5. A defeat would put the pressure on Besiktas with a final game to come in Leipzig, especially if the German side have won at Monaco on Match Day 5 too, but Besiktas have to be feeling confident of their chances of earning the necessary result.

They have already beaten Porto 0-3 in Portugal and Besiktas have been a tough team to play in Istanbul where they will host this game on Tuesday. Besiktas are now unbeaten in 7 home Champions League games and they are unbeaten in 11 in all European competitions which shows they are a team that have to be respected.

I am not convinced the layers have done that by making them the underdog at home against Porto even though a point is enough for Besiktas to achieve all of their goals. Recent form has not been the best for Besiktas either which would be a concern, but they have remained hard to beat at home.

Porto may have won 4 in a row heading into this one, but they have won 1 of their last 4 away Champions League games and this is a side who have lost at Leipzig and Leicester City over the last twelve months. Copenhagen were another who earned a result against Porto and I will back Besiktas with what looks a generous start on the Asian Handicap.

That would return a portion as a winner even if the game ends in the draw which may suit both clubs, but I think the more likely winner is Besiktas and they should not be an underdog against a team like Porto at home.


Spartak Moscow v Maribor Pick: With Sevilla and Liverpool expected to win this Group at a canter, Spartak Moscow have been reminding the other clubs that they did come into the draw as a Number 1 Seed. A 5-1 hammering of Sevilla has given Spartak Moscow a chance to make it through to the Last 16, but anything less than a win at home against Maribor may not be good enough for them

Third place and a Europa League place have been all but secured for Spartak Moscow which means they can look at the two teams above them, although it does have to be said that a home loss to Maribor could potentially put third place in jeopardy.

That is not what Spartak Moscow will be thinking, but they will be hoping they can win this game which is played before Sevilla and Liverpool kick off later in the day. Winning will mean there is pressure on those two sides with the losing team having Spartak Moscow breathing down their necks and I do think the Russian Champions can win this fixture with relative comfort.

Spartak Moscow have been in much improved form compared to the start of the Champions League Group and they have won 4 of their last 5 home games in all competitions. All of those wins have come by at least two goal margins including the 5-1 hammering of Sevilla on Match Day 3 which reignited their push for a Second Round place.

They are hosting a Maribor team who have lost half of their last 6 away games in all competitions and all of those losses have come by the same 3-0 scoreline. A couple of those were in this Champions League Group and Maribor will likely be on the back foot in a bid to try and frustrate their hosts.

I am not sure they can hold Spartak Moscow throughout the ninety minutes and eventually Spartak Moscow can prove to be a little too good in the final third. With the goals being scored by the home team, I will look for Spartak Moscow to win this one and cover the Asian Handicap.


Borussia Dortmund v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: When the Champions League Group Stage was drawn, Borussia Dortmund and Tottenham Hotspur were both expected to challenge one another for the berth behind Real Madrid into the Last 16. Things have not gone to plan at all with Tottenham Hotspur already through to the Last 16 and likely to win the Group and Borussia Dortmund on the brink of exiting the competition.

Things have not gone well for Borussia Dortmund domestically either as they have conceded far too many goals of late both at home and away. In fact Dortmund have not won any of 4 home games in all competitions and have lost 3 of those while conceding three times in each defeat which has to give Tottenham Hotspur the belief they can earn the upset.

It is hard to know how much belief Borussia Dortmund have at the moment with their attacking style leaving them open for the counter attack. They know they need to win their last 2 Champions League games and also that Real Madrid fail to beat APOEL in Cyprus if Borussia Dortmund are to get through and I can't imagine the players have much more expectation of that happening than I do.

It's a long shot to say the least, but Borussia Dortmund won't want to exit European Football completely so their last couple of games do mean something to them having drawn twice with APOEL as they look for a 3rd place finish at the least. They could be facing Tottenham Hotspur at the right time with the latter perhaps thinking not to risk some of their big name players.

Tottenham Hotspur can win this Group by beating APOEL at home next month and while they will want to secure top spot as soon as possible, Mauricio Pochettino has to be thinking not to risk Dele Alli and Harry Kane in this one. Neither looked fully fit in Tottenham Hotspur's loss at Arsenal and there are big Premier League games ahead which suggests they could be rested here.

They have also not been the best travellers in away European games and I do think the situation could favour Borussia Dortmund with Tottenham Hotspur perhaps thinking they can get some rest for their big names. With APOEL to come at Wembley Stadium, Tottenham Hotspur can still win this Group even if they don't win here in Dortmund and I think the home team will have the better of the chances.

The goals being conceded by Borussia Dortmund is a real worry, but as I have said, it does feel like they are catching Tottenham Hotspur at a good time. At home Borussia Dortmund will go on the attack and I will back them to win this game and at least put themselves in a strong spot to finish 3rd in the Group for the Europa League fallback place.

At odds against Borussia Dortmund are just about a tempting enough price to be backed to win this one.


Manchester City v Feyenoord Pick: The Champions League Group looks well in hand for Manchester City, but they will want to keep the momentum going knowing the next Premier League game isn't until Sunday afternoon. That does give Pep Guardiola more options with his rotation of his squad, but Manchester City have to feel a win at home on Tuesday will likely be enough to win the Group with Shakhtar Donetsk travelling to Naples.

That is not good news for Feyenoord who have not been in the best of form and have already seen at first hand how good Manchester City can be when crushed 0-4 in Rotterdam earlier this season. There is a clear differential in quality between these teams and that gap is only widened when you consider the form of the two sides going into this one.

While Manchester City have continued to showcase their dominance, Feyenoord are simply trying to find some form and the results have continued to be a little erratic. They have already lost 3-1 at both Napoli and Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League away games in this Group and in both games Feyenoord were clearly second best which won't offer a lot of encouragement when heading to the Etihad Stadium.

A trip to Manchester will hold some nerves for the Feyenoord players having lost 4-0 at Manchester United in the Europa League Group Stage almost exactly twelve months ago.

One hope could be the likely changes Manchester City will make to their starting eleven knowing the big games come thick and fast over the next few weeks. I can see a few players rotated out of this one, but some real quality will still begin this game with the likes of Nicolas Otamendi, Danilo, Yaya Toure, Bernardo Silva and Sergio Aguero all potential starters.

I don't suppose there will be wholesale changes as Manchester City look to win the Group on Match Day 5 and with the next League game not scheduled until Sunday afternoon. The strength certainly lies with Manchester City in this one and I think they can record another big win over Feyenoord on Tuesday.

The layers are now beginning to ask Manchester City to cover some big Handicaps after their blistering start to the season, but I think they can win this one by at least three goals on the day. Pep Guardiola won't want his team to play any other way than looking to get forward and score goals and I think his team can do that here even with the expected changes in mind.


Sevilla v Liverpool Pick: Spartak Moscow will be playing earlier in the day so both Sevilla and Liverpool will know by kick off whether the Russian Champions have picked up the three points which will take them to 8 points in the Group. If that has happened, Liverpool (8 points) and Sevilla (7 points) will understand the importance of this fixture or have to face a pressurised Match Day 6 situation.

Out of the two teams I would imagine Liverpool feel in a more comfortable spot knowing they are hosting Spartak Moscow on the final day while Sevilla will have to show they can earn a win away from home when travelling to Maribor. However I don't think there will be any thought as to the Match Day 6 permutations and instead the full focus has to be placed on this fixture.

It could be a really good game with both Sevilla and Liverpool likely looking to get forward wherever possible, while neither is defensively that secure. Sevilla have conceded in their last 3 home games overall and in 4 of their last 5 home Champions League games, but on the other hand goals have been no problem for the Spanish side either.

Liverpool themselves have scored 13 goals in their last 4 games overall which has led to wins in each of those and Jurgen Klopp will want his team to play one way. With Mohammed Salah, Roberto Firmino, Philippe Coutinho and Sadio Mane all ready to go, Liverpool will feel they can paper over the defensive problems with their attacking play.

It is all pointing to what could be a third game between Sevilla and Liverpool which features plenty of goals in the last eighteen months. The two previous games have had four goals shared out and Sevilla and Liverpool are in the kind of form where they can hit that number again in what should be an attacking game throughout.

I would be shocked if both teams don't score at least once, but the attacking quality on display and some of the defensive issues should mean there are plenty of chances throughout the ninety minutes. There have been lots of goals in this Group and I will look for at least four to be added to the books in this one.


Qarabag v Chelsea Pick: There could have been a lot more pressure on Chelsea on Match Day 5 if Atletico Madrid had won their two games against Qarabag as was expected. However Atletico Madrid failed to win either game and that means Chelsea are 5 points clear of 3rd place despite their 3-0 loss at Roma last time out.

Winning the Group will be difficult having lost the head to head with Roma, but Antonio Conte is not going to be concerned with that at the moment. Instead the key is to make sure Chelsea can book their place in the Last 16 and ensure Match Day 6 is not a stressful one where he has to use his key players ahead of a busy December in the Premier League.

The likes of Eden Hazard and Alvaro Morata are essential to Chelsea and the final Champions League game will be seen as a potential rest day for those players. That does mean they are likely to get a start here in Azerbaijan where Chelsea know a win over Qarabag can confirm their Last 16 spot.

The issue is clouded by the fact that Chelsea travel to Anfield on Saturday afternoon and Conte will be well aware that Liverpool are playing the day before. However he will likely pick a strong team in the hope that Chelsea can get into a strong position in this game before bringing the big names off as Conte did at The Hawthorns on Saturday.

I mean no disrespect to Qarabag who held Atletico Madrid twice, but I do think they have already overachieved. The 6-0 loss at Stamford Bridge will motivate the players to show they are better than they did on that day, but the conditions should be cool enough for Chelsea to be able to enjoy their football here.

Roma were in a really strong position very early in Qarabag and had chances to win that game by a wider margin than they did, and I think Chelsea are in good form. Both Hazard and Morata look like they feeling very confident and the return of N'Golo Kante cannot be underestimated and I think Chelsea will secure a pretty comfortable win here.

Qarabag will look to make life difficult for Chelsea, but I think the speed Chelsea have in the forward areas and the all around confidence around the club helps them win by a couple of goals on the day.


Anderlecht v Bayern Munich Pick: This Group is on the brink of being decided with Bayern Munich having made it through to the Last 16 along with Paris Saint-Germain. It will take something remarkable to happen for Bayern Munich to win the Group now, while the same can be said for Anderlecht if they are going to make it through to the Europa League ahead of Celtic.

With little on the line for Bayern Munich, I do have to wonder about the kind of team that will be picked ahead of a trip to Borussia Monchengladbach in the League. A number of changes were made when the German giants visited Celtic on Match Day 4, but Bayern Munich were still too good on the day to confirm their spot in the Last 16.

I expect changes will be made in this one too, although perhaps not as many as was made in the game in Celtic. This time Bayern Munich come in with more confidence having taken control of the Bundesliga again and I do think they will play an eleven that should be far too good for Anderlecht.

It has been a difficult season for Anderlecht who have taken some heavy losses in the Champions League already and look certain to be exiting European competition months after reaching the Europa League Quarter Final. The concentration will return to domestic matters as Anderlecht look to work their way back into contention, although the Play Off system in Belgium does mean they have plenty of time to get things right.

They have lost 3 of their last 6 home games in all competitions and Anderlecht have to be worried about the defensive performances when being visited by an attacking team like Bayern Munich. Changes may make this a closer game than it would normally be, but I will back Bayern Munich to win this one by a couple of goals on the night.


Atletico Madrid v Roma Pick: My biggest concern for Atletico Madrid is the mindset the players will have if Chelsea are able to win in Qarabag as I expect them to do earlier in the day. That result will mean Atletico Madrid are on the brink of exiting the Champions League and will need the Azerbaijani Champions to earn a shock result at Roma as well as Atletico Madrid winning their final two Champions League games.

The two draws with Qarabag have really hurt Atletico Madrid and left them 4 points behind Chelsea in 2nd place in the Group with a couple of games left to play. With Roma hosting Qarabag in the final Champions League game, they may arrive here with a nothing to lose attitude and it does put the factors together which could be working against the home team.

It has been a disappointing time for Atletico Madrid in their new Stadium and they had to settle for another draw at home over the weekend when hosting Real Madrid. The performances have left them well short of Barcelona domestically and this early Champions League exit, which looks very likely now, will be a real blow for Diego Simeone who decided to stay on as manager in the summer.

If Atletico Madrid are feeling down then they will struggle, but I can't help feel Roma are a touch over-rated for this fixture. The Italian side don't need to win and I don't think they would have seen their hosts so short if this match had come earlier in the Group.

Anyone who saw Atletico Madrid in Rome will know they were the better team on the day and I do think Simeone will want to give his team a fighting chance to get through to the Last 16 even if Chelsea have won. At home Atletico Madrid have yet to win in the Champions League in this new Stadium, but in recent years they have been dominant at home in the competition.

On the other hand Roma have tended to be a poor traveller more often than not and I will back Atletico Madrid to keep the pressure on the Italian side going into Match Day 6 with a victory in this one.


Basel v Manchester United Pick: Squad depth is something Jose Mourinho feels can help Manchester United close the gap to Manchester City in the Premier League and he should have every chance to spread the playing time in the remaining Champions League games. After securing four wins in the Group, Manchester United have almost certainly won this Group and that should mean rotation is in play for the remaining two games.

Strong teams are likely to be picked for the games against Basel and CSKA Moscow in order to build some momentum, but Mourinho is not likely to risk players who are needed for the big Premier League games around these final two Champions League Match Days.

In saying that, I do think the depth does mean a strong Manchester United line up can be picked for this trip to Basel and I think Manchester United can win here.

Basel have to be respected having crushed Benfica 5-0 at home earlier in the Group, but that was a day in which almost everything that could go wrong went wrong for the Portuguese team. It is harder to ignore the fact that Basel have lost 3 of their last 4 home Champions League games including against Arsenal in December 2016.

CSKA Moscow were able to win here and I think Manchester United are a stronger team even with the likely changes that will take place. I would still expect the likes of Paul Pogba, Romelu Lukaku, Anthony Martial and Henrikh Mkhitaryan to take part and Manchester United have shown they can produce away from home in European competition with the tactics Jose Mourinho puts out.

The side have a 7 game unbeaten run away from home in Europe and Manchester United have won 5 of those games. It would have been 6 if not conceding a late equaliser at Anderlecht in the Europa League Quarter Final, while Manchester United have won 3 away European ties in a row.

The odds on a Manchester United win have to be influenced by the likely changes to keep the team fresh for the Premier League games to come over the next seven days. However I am not convinced Basel have enough to challenge Manchester United here and even a changed team can secure another three points and a place in the Last 16 as Group Winners.


Paris Saint-Germain v Celtic Pick: I don't think anyone will be surprised to learn that Paris Saint-Germain are 6 points clear in the French domestic League as they are also one of the favourites to win the Champions League. While already through to the Last 16, PSG are still making sure of a top spot finish and a win over Celtic may be enough for them to confirm that barring a truly heavy loss at Bayern Munich on Match Day 6.

That is not likely to happen in the form Paris Saint-Germain are in and they will feel like they are too strong for Celtic. They have already won easily in Glasgow and Paris Saint-Germain have made short work of the Group to this point with four straight wins and 17 goals scored with clean sheets across the board.

There may be some changes to the starting eleven for this one, but I do think Paris Saint-Germain can earn yet another win with a clean sheet in this one and have been seduced by the odds against quote on that happening.

That is nothing against Celtic, but this is a side who have failed to score at the likes of Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the last fifteen months. While Brendan Rodgers will always want his side to give it a go, I do think the top clubs can use that against Celtic and I think Paris Saint-Germain are able to win relatively comfortably.

Celtic have almost secured a Europa League spot which was the goal for Rodgers and so this is a 'free hit' for them which can make them dangerous. However Celtic have not been in the most convincing of form in recent weeks and I find it hard to see how they can raise their game to the level required in this one.

The only doubt is how seriously Paris Saint-Germain will take the fixture, but they have not let up in the Champions League so far. They do go to Monaco on Sunday which is a distraction, but Paris Saint-Germain have learned about the importance of winning Groups for a 'kinder' draw in the Second Round and I expect that will keep them focused.

Knowing Monaco is next might mean Paris Saint-Germain are even more motivated to make sure they don't allow Celtic too much encouragement and I will take them at odds against to win this with a clean sheet.


Athletic Bilbao v Hertha Berlin Pick: Regardless of the other result in the Group, Hertha Berlin know they have to avoid defeat if they want to keep their chances of making it into the Last 32 alive. In reality you would imagine anything less than a win would not be good enough for the Bundesliga side as they travel to face Athletic Bilbao.

The fixture feels just as important to Athletic Bilbao who conclude the home portion of the Group games on Match Day 5. A win would put them in a strong position to make it through to the Last 32, while a defeat would mean Athletic Bilbao are all but out of the competition.

That would be a real disappointment for the club as these two out of form teams meet on Thursday.

I have to think home advantage is going to be key and Athletic Bilbao have proven to be generally too good for their recent visitors in this competition. They have won 7 of 8 home Europa League games and face a Hertha Berlin team who have already fallen to defeat in Ostersunds and Zorya.

The poor form Athletic Bilbao have displayed in recent weeks has mainly come away from home as they have won half of their last 4 home games in all competition. And that certainly reads better than Hertha Berlin who have a big game at FC Koln this weekend as they bid to move away from the relegation zone.

I am looking for Athletic Bilbao to perhaps take advantage of that distraction and I do think they are a much stronger team at home. A lack of goals in recent home games is an obvious concern, but I will look for Athletic Bilbao to perhaps punish Hertha Berlin with a killer goal as the latter push for a result later in the game.

It won’t be an easy game with so much on the line, but I will back Athletic Bilbao to cover the Asian Handicap.


Lugano v Hapoel Be'er Sheva Pick: Plenty of goals have been produced in this Europa League Group Stage and I am expecting more when Lugano host Hapoel Be’er Sheva in what is essentially an ‘elimination’ match between them.

The losing team is almost certainly out of the competition while a draw doesn’t really do a lot for either if Viktoria Plzen are able to beat Steaua Bucharest in the other game in the Group.

That could mean that both Lugano and Hapoel Be’er Sheva try and get on the front foot as much as possible in this one and that may produce fireworks. Neither team can really point to a strong defensive performance to suggest they can hold the other out, while goals have not been a big problem.

All 4 Lugano Europa League games have produced at least three goals thanks in part to the fact that Lugano have conceded at least twice in each of those games. Lugano haven’t failed to score either to play their part, and now face a Hapoel Be’er Sheva who have scored and conceded in each Europa League game.

That has been the case in 6 of the last 7 away Hapoel Be’er Sheva matches in either the Champions League or Europa League and I would be surprised if both don’t score here.

With the situation in the Group, a 1-1 draw suits neither team and I expect a lot of effort to push forward and win this game. It should be a decent watch and I think it will be a Match Day 5 Europa League game that does finish with at least three goals shared out.


Nice v Zulte Waregem Pick: We have gotten to the point of the season where the League table doesn’t really lie in the big European Leagues and Nice are in a relegation battle. There is obviously plenty of time to improve on that, but the confidence of the players will be difficult to pick up.

The last couple of games has produced a couple of positive results which is important for Nice and I think that could carry into the Europa League.

Despite the struggles, a strong Nice team has continued to be picked and they will know a win here would put them through to the Last 32 and allow them to put a pin in the Europa League.

It won’t be an easy game against Zulte Waregem despite the heavy win Nice recorded over them away from home. However Zulte Waregem are hardly in inspiring form themselves and they have not travelled well which means I give Nice the advantage to win this game and cover the Asian Handicap.

If Zulte Waregem go behind, they will have to chase the game to get back into things and give themselves a chance of overtaking Nice in the Group. That could be the moment where Nice are able to hit them on the counter attack effectively and I think will help Nice produce a win by a couple of goals on the night.

Nice have not been a strong home team to back in European competition with 1 win from their last 4 here. However Zulte Waregem are closer to the level of Vitesse who were beaten 3-0 here and I will look for Nice to cover the Asian Handicap at odds against.


Ostersunds v Zorya Pick: You have to believe the Ostersunds progress in the Europa League will have garnered some attention in boardrooms in the English Football League as they are led by Englishman Graham Potter.

He can only continue building his own reputation if he can guide Ostersunds to an improbable Last 32 berth and the destiny is in their own hands ahead of Match Day 5.

There is some pressure on Ostersunds who will feel their best chance to make it through to the Last 32 without relying on other results is by beating Zorya at home. So far Ostersunds have proven to be a very difficult team to play in Sweden having won 4 in a row in the Europa League before Athletic Bilbao scored an 89th minute equaliser to earn a 2-2 draw here.

Facing them are a Zorya team who have also been a surprise so far in the Group Stage. A win for the Ukrainian team will put them in a commanding position to go through to the Last 32 and that means a confident side should arrive for this game.

However Zorya have not been a great traveller in the Europa League in recent years and the win over Athletic Bilbao seems to be the exception to the rule. I have enjoyed backing Ostersunds already in their home games and I do like their chances of securing a win in this one.

My only real concern is that Ostersunds have simply not been ‘expected’ to win any of the games they have so far. This time they go into the match as the favourites and that expectation can do funny things to players in sports played around the world, especially when usually accepting their spot as the underdog.

They can still play a similar brand of football because the draw is perhaps favouring their position in the Group knowing Zorya host Athletic Bilbao last time out. Graham Potter won’t want to leave it to the chance of seeing other results though and I think an Ostersunds team who have won 5 of their last 8 here in all competitions can secure another vital win.

I imagine this will be a fairly close game, but I will look for Ostersunds to edge it and will back them to make it 5 wins out of 6 home Europa League ties.


Viktoria Plzen v Steaua Bucharest Pick: There have been a few exciting Groups in the Europa League this season but the most entertaining may be the one involving Viktoria Plzen, Steaua Bucharest, Lugano and Hapoel Be’er Sheva.

7 of the 8 games in the Group have ended with at least three goals shared out and Viktoria Plzen and Steaua Bucharest will be familiar with one another having played three times already this season.

All three have also featured at least three goals and I think the two teams are capable of producing another entertaining game.

Steaua Bucharest have nothing to lose here having almost secured their spot as Group Winners, while Viktoria Plzen are trying to hold off Lugano and Hapoel Be’er Sheva for 2nd place in the Group.

With Viktoria Plzen likely to try and get forward, there could be space for Steaua Bucharest to exploit too. There is every chance that both teams will score and spaces are likely to be there in the second half for the attacking players to try and create more chances.

The fixtures between these teams have produced plenty of goals and even an already Qualified Steaua Bucharest can compete here as they bid to secure top spot in the Group. Backing goals in this Group match looks the way to go.


I've added three picks from the 8:05pm games from the Europa League Match Day 5 fixtures below.

MY PICKS: Besiktas + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Spartak Moscow - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sevilla-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Athletic Bilbao - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Lugano-Hapoel Be'er Sheva Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Nice - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.11 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ostersunds @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Viktoria Plzen-Steaua Bucharest Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton-Atalanta Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ludogorets Razgrad-Istanbul Basaksehir Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Partizan Belgrade @ 2.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

November Update: 13-10, + 10.36 Units (41 Units Staked, + 25.27% Yield)

October Final: 35-41-2, - 7 Units (152 Units Staked, - 4.61% Yield)
September Final: 28-30-3, + 2.06 Units (115 Units Staked, + 1.79% Yield)
August Final: 30-34, - 5.63 (108 Units Staked, - 5.21% Yield)

Season 2017/18 Update: 93-105-5, - 10.57 Units (375 Units Staked, - 2.88% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks (November 20-22)

It's back to the Champions League and European football this week as we get set to enter a busy two months in England with a heavy run of fixtures around the festive period.

Remember to keep an eye on team news ahead of these games as some teams have qualified and others are already out of the competitions so resting players in not against the norm at this stage.


Galatasaray v Manchester United Pick: I find it horrible to back against my team and usually steer clear of doing so... Unless it is a Capital One Cup game or a meaningless Champions League game like we have on Tuesday evening.

Sir Alex Ferguson has taken a youthful looking squad to Turkey and that is not the easiest place to get some experience as Galatasaray have been very tough to play out there in front of their passionate fans.

After seeing the amount of chances Galatasaray created against a stronger United team at Old Trafford, I have little doubt they will be able to do the same in this one, but I also think the home side have shown some vulnerabilities in the Champions League this season and are yet to keep a clean sheet.

The layers know United have a weaker squad out here, and they have also priced down the home win simply because Galatasaray 'need' to win... However, I would rather have a small interest in Galatasaray winning with a few goals scored in the game as I doubt they keep a clean sheet.


BATE Borisov v Lille Pick: Talking about skeleton squads, Lille have taken a very young squad to Belarus to face a BATE Borisov side that has played well in the Champions League and already thumped the French side on their travels and beaten Bayern Munich here.

BATE should be on the front foot for much of this game and the inexperience in the away side may make all the difference.

I expect Lille to make an effort to get off the pointless track, but BATE should be too strong when it is all said and done.


Juventus v Chelsea Pick: Chelsea have really hit the wall in recent weeks and I think they are going to have another tough day in the office and could be faced with the prospect of being knocked out of the Champions League at the Group Stage.

Juventus should be on the front foot in this game and they look capable of exposing a Chelsea back line that is missing John Terry and one that has struggled for clean sheets. The Blues have conceded at least 2 goals against the likes of Manchester United (twice), Shakhtar Donetsk (twice) and West Brom in recent games and you have to favour Juventus to grab the win here.

However, Chelsea should be able to get on the scoreboard themselves in this game as they have players that will certainly help create chances. My issue is that they are too open at the back and could be picked off by a Juventus team that could have beaten them at Stamford Bridge and clearly can create chances against this defence.

We should see goals in this game so a small interest in Juventus winning a high-scoring game looks the call.


Valencia v Bayern Munich Pick: Two teams in very good form meet each other in a game that could determine the winner of this Group and a chance to avoid some of the bigger names in the last 16.

Valencia have won 6 in a row at home in all competitions, while Bayern Munich have only lost 1 of their last 9 away games. The German side will be very happy avoiding defeat in this one as that would mean a win over BATE at home would win them them the Group.

A draw actually would suit Bayern down to the ground in this one and I think Valencia would be happy too as that would secure their place in the last 16.


Arsenal v Montpellier Pick: Arsenal look remarkably short considering their recent struggles in both the Premier League and the Champions League, but Montpellier have been a little exposed in the competition as they are inexperienced and struggling to reach the heights of last season when they won the French domestic League.

I think Arsenal probably win, but the best way to get on seems to be Both Teams to Score and Arsenal to win which is offered at 3.00 by Ladbrokes.

The home side have earned just 1 clean sheet in their last 14 games in all competitions and look vulnerable, something that Montpellier could expose as a team that has scored in every away game they have played this season, including at Schalke and Olympiacos in this competition.

Arsenal have also had 3 clean sheets in their last 10 Champions League home games and this looks a spot of value considering they have won 8 of those games.


Manchester City v Real Madrid Pick: This looks like a game that may continue from where they left off in Madrid as both teams will be pushing forward to win the game.

Manchester City have to win and hope Ajax beat Borussia Dortmund to give themselves a small chance of progressing from the Group, while Real Madrid come here with less pressure as they can afford to lose as long as they beat Ajax at home in their final Group game. However, Jose Mourinho will still harbour ambitions of finishing top of the section and he has to see his side earn 2 more points than Dortmund if they are to do so and that means they cannot sit back and wait for things to happen either.

Both defences have shown vulnerabilities in the competition, while both attacks are definitely clever enough and have enough pace and creativity to cause problems.

The over 2.5 goals has been priced down accordingly, but I still think taking the odds against quote for over 3.5 goals may be the way to go.


MY PICKS: BATE Borisov @ 2.20 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Galatasaray Win and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 3.25 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Juventus Win and at Least 3 Goals Scored @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Valencia-Bayern Munich Draw @ 3.50 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Arsenal to Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester City-Real Madrid Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.30 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)



November Update: 6-12, - 3.75 Units (26 Units Staked, - 14.4% Yield)

October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)