In a week that has been as strong as this one it can be difficult to be too down on any Tennis Picks made, but I was left a little frustrated on Thursday when both Kiki Bertens and Timea Babos got into a position to win and cover in their matches, but both failed to do that and actually exited the tournament in Linz.
Wins from those two Picks and this would have been an exceptional day rather than a very good one and there are more positive numbers to put down.
We now reach the Quarter Final matches at all of the events being played this week and I have a number of Tennis Picks from those matches in a bid to put an exclamation mark on the week. These matches will take place across the four events being played and over a huge amount of hours with the time differences at the tournaments meaning it is a long day of tennis for those fans who plan on watching all of the Quarter Final matches.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: The opening Quarter Final match in Shanghai is played between two of the younger players leading the way forward for the 'Next Generation' on the ATP Tour.
Both Alexander Zverev and Kyle Edmund have looked strong in their runs in Shanghai and I do think the two players will both be very confident in their ability to win this match. The mental edge may be with Zverev who has won all three previous matches against Edmund, but he won't be overlooking someone who reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open earlier in 2018.
The last match between Zverev and Edmund was also very close on the clay courts, although I do think that might be a surface that favours Edmund more than the faster hard courts. The performances in Shanghai have been very good from Edmund, but this is another step up in class for the British player who remains an outside shot to make the World Tour Finals with a strong end to the 2018 season.
It has been the return game that has really helped Edmund but he is going to be facing a Zverev serve that has proved to be very potent on this surface throughout 2018. I do think Zverev is going to have to serve very well to make sure he is in a position to make it through to the Semi Final after saving a number of break points in his first two matches in this tournament.
However Edmund has had to save plenty of break points of his own and I do think the Zverev return is the better of the two players on the court. He should be able to exert a little more pressure in the match and I think that will see Zverev continue his run and also confirm his place at the World Tour Finals with a Semi Final berth likely to be enough to do that here this week.
Roger Federer - 2.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Having not played any competitive tennis since the surprisingly early exit at the US Open may be having an effect on the Roger Federer performances so far in Shanghai this week. He has shown the battling qualities that have helped Federer have so much success in his career, but I am sure he also appreciates he has to be a lot better if he is going to win this match.
In this Quarter Final Federer takes on Kei Nishikori who reached the Final in Tokyo last week and who has backed that up with a good couple of wins here in Shanghai.
You have to like what Nishikori brings to the court against Federer with a strong return game likely to put some pressure on the Number 1 Seed. So far this week we have not seen the best of Federer when it comes to the serve and that is an area Nishikori will be looking to exploit with his ability to make enough balls and force Federer to go for closer and closer to the line.
The problem for Nishikori is going to be the same one he has whenever he faces one of the top players on the Tour and that is whether he can get enough out of his own serve to at least get through some games without stresses. It just isn't a weapon that will put fear into opponents and Federer has been very good at attacking the Nishikori serve when they have faced one another.
Nishikori hasn't really been tested on his serve this week and I do think Federer holds the edge in the match thanks to his own serve likely producing one or two 'easier' games compared with Nishikori. That should prove to be the difference on the day, but Federer has to raise his level after barely coming through the first couple of matches in Shanghai and needing three sets to overcome both Daniil Medvedev and Roberto Bautista Agut.
It should be a fun Quarter Final for the fans to enjoy, but I will be backing Roger Federer to come through with a win and a cover.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Shanghai Update: 17-7, + 16.18 Units (50 Units Staked, + 32.36% Yield)
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Friday, 12 October 2018
Thursday, 11 October 2018
Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (October 11th)
Wednesday looked to be a pivotal day for the Tennis Picks this week and a strong return of 8-4 means the numbers are in a good place going into the Thursday Third Round matches at the Shanghai Masters.
The WTA tournaments being played this week will set up their own Quarter Final matches for Friday with another busy day across the three tournaments that are running.
I didn't think Thursday would be as busy a day for the Tennis Picks as Wednesday proved to be, but there are a number of matches that have hit my criteria marks and there is only one fewer Pick being made on this day compared with Wednesday.
Hopefully I can have a similarly successful day as yesterday and keep the positive trend going.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Alex De Minaur: This is going to be the third match between Alexander Zverev and Alex De Minaur in 2018 and the two young players are both having strong seasons on the Tour. The previous two matches have both been won by Zverev, but the first was a very close match in the Davis Cup that needed all five sets to determine a winner, although the second was won in dominant style by the German in the Washington Final a couple of months ago.
Both players are considered part of the 'Next Gen' of ATP players on the Tour and both will be pleased by their 2018 campaign although I do think Zverev is someway further along in his career than De Minaur.
I have a lot of respect for De Minaur as the Australian has channelled the kind of attitude that his compatriot Lleyton Hewitt used to display on the court. While he doesn't have any really big weapon on the court, De Minaur uses hard work and a solid belief in his own game to win matches and he never knows when he is beaten which makes him dangerous.
Ultimately though he has a gap to bridge to Zverev even if the latter has not been playing as well as he would have liked over the last month. The win over Nikoloz Basilashvili will have given Zverev a lot of confidence though as he broke down the in-form Georgian and I think the bigger serve he possesses compared with De Minaur will put the German in a position to win this one and cover this number.
De Minaur is holding serve at just under 80% of the time on the hard courts and he is going to be faced with a solid returner in this one which should mean he is put under pressure in games where he doesn't find enough first serves going in. The battling nature of the Australian means he won't give up without a fight, but I think Zverev's serve is going to be the key with a few more cheap points meaning he can get through service games with slightly less concern than De Minaur.
It has been a good week for De Minaur with two wins in the books without dropping a set, but this is another step up in class and I will back Zverev to edge him out in both sets of a straight sets win.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: When Novak Djokovic was beaten by Marco Cecchinato at the French Open the former World Number 1 made suggestions that he was going to miss the grass court season. He looked to be seriously struggling with his confidence at the time, but Novak Djokovic has since won the two Grand Slam tournaments played at Wimbledon and the US Open and he is the favourite to regain his place at the top of the ATP Tour.
Revenge will be the storyline for the television companies in Shanghai on Thursday, but I don't think Djokovic will be thinking that way and instead is focused on another strong showing at a Masters event.
Marco Cecchinato should have some real belief from his win over Djokovic at the French Open but he is so much better on the clay courts compared with the hard courts which seems to make this more of a mismatch. The Italian had only won two matches on the hard courts on the main ATP Tour before this week, but he has already invested a lot into the tournament and I do wonder how much is left in the tank.
He has won two long matches this week against Gilles Simon and Hyeon Chung and both times Cecchinato has needed a final set tie-breaker which will have taken something away physically and emotionally from him.
The conditions could help the Italian who has a decent first serve, but Novak Djokovic is getting closer and closer to hitting the kind of heights that saw him dominate men's tennis for a couple of years. Djokovic is feeling about as good about his game as he has for a long time and the confidence is back which means I am expecting the Serb to put Cecchinato under pressure with the return of serve.
Cecchinato has simply not been a very good hard court player and some way below the standards that are set by Djokovic. If he serves well Cecchinato could be potentially dangerous, but I think Djokovic makes the running in this match and I will back him to cover a big looking number on paper.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: This is a good looking match in the Third Round of the Shanghai Masters and there is almost a contrast in styles that will be matching up against one another. The Juan Martin Del Potro game plan is to simply play an aggressive brand of tennis behind a monster serve and it is one that should be very effective on the courts in Shanghai.
For Borna Coric the movement and ability to get plenty of balls back in play is going to be key but the young Croatian is making some big strides with his numbers on the hard courts. The return of serve is where Coric has really improved in 2018 on this surface compared to the numbers produced in 2017 and it will be interesting to see if he can get into the Del Potro service games.
Unlike Del Potro, Coric will have had a day to rest which means he is a potential danger to the higher Seeded player. However there is a mental obstacle for Coric to overcome having been crushed by Del Potro at the US Open a couple of months ago and the form of the big man has not really dropped off throughout 2018.
His win over Richard Gasquet in the Second Round was a good one and the strong performances in 2018 has really moved Del Potro into a position where he will feel a Grand Slam title to add to his US Open crown is potentially not too far away. Del Potro finished as Runner Up at the US Open this past few weeks and I think he will be tough to beat in Shanghai with the faster courts likely to suit his game a little more than it does for Coric.
As much as Coric has improved in 2018, I do think he has been having a tough few weeks on the hard courts prior to this week. He was perhaps a little fortunate to get the better of Stan Wawrinka in the First Round here and losses to Cameron Norrie and Feliciano Lopez since the hard courts is not ideal preparation to make Coric believe he can beat someone like Del Potro who reached the Final in Beijing last week.
This is an intriguing number and one that almost feels like a trap, but I do think Del Potro is the stronger player on this surface and I will back him to win and cover the spread.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 10.5 Games First Set @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Timea Babos - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Shanghai Update: 10-4, + 10.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 36.57% Yield)
The WTA tournaments being played this week will set up their own Quarter Final matches for Friday with another busy day across the three tournaments that are running.
I didn't think Thursday would be as busy a day for the Tennis Picks as Wednesday proved to be, but there are a number of matches that have hit my criteria marks and there is only one fewer Pick being made on this day compared with Wednesday.
Hopefully I can have a similarly successful day as yesterday and keep the positive trend going.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Alex De Minaur: This is going to be the third match between Alexander Zverev and Alex De Minaur in 2018 and the two young players are both having strong seasons on the Tour. The previous two matches have both been won by Zverev, but the first was a very close match in the Davis Cup that needed all five sets to determine a winner, although the second was won in dominant style by the German in the Washington Final a couple of months ago.
Both players are considered part of the 'Next Gen' of ATP players on the Tour and both will be pleased by their 2018 campaign although I do think Zverev is someway further along in his career than De Minaur.
I have a lot of respect for De Minaur as the Australian has channelled the kind of attitude that his compatriot Lleyton Hewitt used to display on the court. While he doesn't have any really big weapon on the court, De Minaur uses hard work and a solid belief in his own game to win matches and he never knows when he is beaten which makes him dangerous.
Ultimately though he has a gap to bridge to Zverev even if the latter has not been playing as well as he would have liked over the last month. The win over Nikoloz Basilashvili will have given Zverev a lot of confidence though as he broke down the in-form Georgian and I think the bigger serve he possesses compared with De Minaur will put the German in a position to win this one and cover this number.
De Minaur is holding serve at just under 80% of the time on the hard courts and he is going to be faced with a solid returner in this one which should mean he is put under pressure in games where he doesn't find enough first serves going in. The battling nature of the Australian means he won't give up without a fight, but I think Zverev's serve is going to be the key with a few more cheap points meaning he can get through service games with slightly less concern than De Minaur.
It has been a good week for De Minaur with two wins in the books without dropping a set, but this is another step up in class and I will back Zverev to edge him out in both sets of a straight sets win.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: When Novak Djokovic was beaten by Marco Cecchinato at the French Open the former World Number 1 made suggestions that he was going to miss the grass court season. He looked to be seriously struggling with his confidence at the time, but Novak Djokovic has since won the two Grand Slam tournaments played at Wimbledon and the US Open and he is the favourite to regain his place at the top of the ATP Tour.
Revenge will be the storyline for the television companies in Shanghai on Thursday, but I don't think Djokovic will be thinking that way and instead is focused on another strong showing at a Masters event.
Marco Cecchinato should have some real belief from his win over Djokovic at the French Open but he is so much better on the clay courts compared with the hard courts which seems to make this more of a mismatch. The Italian had only won two matches on the hard courts on the main ATP Tour before this week, but he has already invested a lot into the tournament and I do wonder how much is left in the tank.
He has won two long matches this week against Gilles Simon and Hyeon Chung and both times Cecchinato has needed a final set tie-breaker which will have taken something away physically and emotionally from him.
The conditions could help the Italian who has a decent first serve, but Novak Djokovic is getting closer and closer to hitting the kind of heights that saw him dominate men's tennis for a couple of years. Djokovic is feeling about as good about his game as he has for a long time and the confidence is back which means I am expecting the Serb to put Cecchinato under pressure with the return of serve.
Cecchinato has simply not been a very good hard court player and some way below the standards that are set by Djokovic. If he serves well Cecchinato could be potentially dangerous, but I think Djokovic makes the running in this match and I will back him to cover a big looking number on paper.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: This is a good looking match in the Third Round of the Shanghai Masters and there is almost a contrast in styles that will be matching up against one another. The Juan Martin Del Potro game plan is to simply play an aggressive brand of tennis behind a monster serve and it is one that should be very effective on the courts in Shanghai.
For Borna Coric the movement and ability to get plenty of balls back in play is going to be key but the young Croatian is making some big strides with his numbers on the hard courts. The return of serve is where Coric has really improved in 2018 on this surface compared to the numbers produced in 2017 and it will be interesting to see if he can get into the Del Potro service games.
Unlike Del Potro, Coric will have had a day to rest which means he is a potential danger to the higher Seeded player. However there is a mental obstacle for Coric to overcome having been crushed by Del Potro at the US Open a couple of months ago and the form of the big man has not really dropped off throughout 2018.
His win over Richard Gasquet in the Second Round was a good one and the strong performances in 2018 has really moved Del Potro into a position where he will feel a Grand Slam title to add to his US Open crown is potentially not too far away. Del Potro finished as Runner Up at the US Open this past few weeks and I think he will be tough to beat in Shanghai with the faster courts likely to suit his game a little more than it does for Coric.
As much as Coric has improved in 2018, I do think he has been having a tough few weeks on the hard courts prior to this week. He was perhaps a little fortunate to get the better of Stan Wawrinka in the First Round here and losses to Cameron Norrie and Feliciano Lopez since the hard courts is not ideal preparation to make Coric believe he can beat someone like Del Potro who reached the Final in Beijing last week.
This is an intriguing number and one that almost feels like a trap, but I do think Del Potro is the stronger player on this surface and I will back him to win and cover the spread.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 10.5 Games First Set @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Timea Babos - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Shanghai Update: 10-4, + 10.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 36.57% Yield)
Wednesday, 10 October 2018
Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (October 10th)
There have already been a number of surprise results at the Shanghai Masters and you could add Nicolas Jarry's win over Marin Cilic to that list in the first few days at this tournament.
The defeat for Cilic could be a critical one with a number of players lining up behind the out of form Croatian in the Race to London and Cilic's place in the top eight could be under serious threat by the end of this week.
One player who avoided any upset was Novak Djokovic who comfortably made it through to the Third Round as he continues his bid to finish the 2018 season with the World Number 1 position.
On Wednesday the rest of the Second Round is going to be completed which means the likes of Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer are in action. There is a lot of Tennis to get through and it looks to be a busy day for my Tennis Picks too which both came through as winners on Tuesday with the third pick not counting as Monica Puig pulled out with an injury.
The ATP World Tour Finals are still a few weeks away compared with the WTA Finals which are played later this month. That means every tournament is now very valuable to those players chasing down a spot in Singapore and more of those players will be in action in Second Round matches across the various tournaments being played on the WTA Tour.
Both the Race to London and Race to Singapore have some miles to be run in the final few weeks of the 2018 season and the picture may get a little clearer by the end of the events this week.
On Wednesday I do think the favourites are going to have the chance to put a number of relatively strong wins on the board so it is no surprise I have picked a number of them that have fallen into my criteria.
I am looking to build on Tuesday and make sure the 2018 season ends with a flourish to secure a winning margin for the season.
Wednesday will likely be a key day to this week with the number of Picks I am taking on after a slow first couple of days at the tournaments.
I will analyse four of the Tennis Picks and add the remainder to the 'MY PICKS' section at the end of the thread.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: It says something for Alexander Zverev that he looks likely to miss playing in Milan in the Next Gen ATP Finals for a second season in a row because he has earned enough points to make the main ATP World Tour Finals. Once again it should underline how young Zverev is when what looks a sure fire Grand Slam Champion in the making is criticised for not having made a big impact in enough Slams despite his World Ranking.
The German will be the first to admit he would have expected to have done better at the Grand Slam level, but he is still learning and Zverev is only going to get better. He still has some work to do to make sure he is playing in London in the ATP World Tour Finals, but it would take some run of losses and his rivals playing some immense tennis to prevent that happening.
With Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem already out of the Shanghai Masters this week feels a good chance for Zverev to confirm his place in London alongside Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro. A couple of wins in Shanghai should be enough although there is no guarantee he will get those with a tough Second Round match to negotiate.
Nikoloz Basilashvili had not shown a lot of appetite for playing on the hard courts before reaching the Fourth Round in the US Open. That has clearly sparked something as Basilashvili has enjoyed the Asian hard court swing so far having won the title in Beijing on Sunday and then moving to Shanghai and dismissing Denis Shapovalov very, very comfortably.
Confidence can be huge for any tennis player and Basilashvili is playing with plenty of that. However you can't dismiss the fact the numbers have been fairly average over the last two months even if they are significantly stronger than what the Georgian has tended to produce on the hard courts.
He is serving better in the last two months than he has for most of the season on the hard courts, but he will be tested by Zverev who is a strong returner and perhaps been a little unfortunate to have had a couple of early losses over the last few weeks. The younger player has the bigger serve in the match and still continues to hold at a higher rate than Basilashvili while you can't ignore the amount of tennis the Beijing Champion has played over the last ten days.
The win over Juan Martin Del Potro to take home the Beijing title is a huge one for Basilashvili and deserves a lot of respect. It should also focus Zverev who has suffered some really poor losses on the hard courts since winning the Washington title in August. He will need to serve better than he did in the loss to Malek Jaziri last week in Beijing, but Zverev should have more in the tank than Basilashvili and perhaps just cool down the hot shooting of the Georgian in this Second Round match and lead to a win and a cover.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: It has been five years since Richard Gasquet and Juan Martin Del Potro have played one another so perhaps there has been time for Gasquet to ignore the fact he has lost the last six matches against the 'Tower of Tandil'. The head to head is another poor one Gasquet has against the very best players on the Tour, but he should be ready for this match having already won in the First Round against Leonardo Mayer to get a feel for the conditions.
He is also going to be facing a Del Potro who played, and lost, the Beijing Final just a few days ago and had to make the surprisingly long journey down to Shanghai for this tournament.
Last year Del Potro did enjoy what have been quicker conditions in Shanghai and he reached the Semi Final in this event. You can see Del Potro is much happier with his all around game these days with the wrist injury that has affected his backhand arguably stronger than it has been since before the issue first came up in 2010.
Del Potro is a US Open Finalist, but he might be disappointed he didn't add to his titles in 2018 in Final losses in Los Cabos and Beijing when he was a strong favourite in both. He will want to continue the positive momentum built up by winning here and his numbers on the hard courts are the strongest Del Potro has produced in his career.
The serve is a potent weapon for the Argentinian but the Del Potro return has been underrated and I think that gives Gasquet considerable problems to deal with. The Frenchman has the quality to look after his serve, but the return numbers have been much weaker this season compared to last and dropped off significantly from 2016.
That should mean Gasquet is under immense pressure to stay in the match throughout this contest and only fatigue can keep Del Potro from winning the match. I am not anticipating big issues for the big man and I think he will be a little too aggressive on the return which can force the mistakes from Gasquet and allow Del Potro to win and cover in this one.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Yibing Wu: Winning in Tokyo would have been the perfect homecoming for Kei Nishokori but he came up just short after going down to Daniil Medvedev in the Final on Sunday. The points earned has got Nishikori a little closer to the top eight in the Race to London, but he needs another strong showing in Shanghai to take advantage of the early exits Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem have suffered.
The first match for him in Shanghai comes against a home player who is considered a key part of the future for Chinese tennis. Yibing Wu is still 19 years old and he beat a fellow Chinese player to make it through to this big stage against one of the best ATP players in the world.
It is a big gap for Wu to bridge with the majority of his time spent on the Challenger circuit as he looks to build his confidence. That has yet to happen for a player Ranked outside the top 400, but the First Round win here will help Wu improve his World Ranking and perhaps start making the move he would be hoping for.
Wu is going to need to play one of his best matches of his career and he has to hope Nishikori is fatigued from the effort he put together in Tokyo before flying over to Shanghai. The numbers produced by the young Chinese player have been decent enough for the Challenger circuit but this is a big step up and he has taken comfortable losses to Felix Auger Aliassime and Malek Jaziri over the last couple of weeks as he looks to take advantage of the home tournaments being played on the main Tour.
Nishikori's numbers have begun to improve on the hard courts after a few months off with an injury and he looked to be in fine form in Tokyo. There are still matches where Nishikori suddenly produces a really sub-par effort which makes it tough to really trust him when it comes to the bigger numbers on the handicaps, but the numbers on both the serve and return should give him a big edge over Wu in this one.
Sometimes the unfamiliarity of an opponent can take a top player off his game and that may be something that works for Wu who will have the home fans behind him. However I do think Nishikori stays mentally balanced and that should be enough to secure around four breaks of serve which should be enough to cover this number.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: For now Roger Federer is still Ranked above Novak Djokovic which means he is the Number 1 Seed in Shanghai as the Swiss superstar returns to the court for the first time since the US Open. Some will consider the Laver Cup as competitive action, but I still think that competition is developing beyond a glorified exhibition event and this will be a different atmosphere for Federer.
He goes straight into a tough situation against Daniil Medvedev who has been in fine form for a couple of months on the hard courts and made a significant move up the World Rankings.
The young Russian has moved to the brink of cracking the top 20 in the World Rankings after winning the title in Tokyo and he battled through a tough match in the First Round here in Shanghai. Medvedev's numbers have taken a huge jump on the hard courts in the 2018 season and the title won in Tokyo is the second he has earned in two months after also winning in Winston Salem.
There is a real belief in the way Medvedev is playing at the moment and it is the slight improvement on the return over the last couple of months which has made all the difference for him. However I do have to wonder how much has been taken out of Medvedev by all the tennis and travel he has had to do over the last two weeks after Qualifying for Tokyo before winning the title as well as the tough First Round match he had here against an opponent I would usually expect Medvedev to beat fairly routinely.
Roger Federer has had a few weeks to get himself mentally ready for the end of the 2018 season as we almost enter a period of the season in which he usually thrives. It was surprising to hear Federer suggest he had almost mentally checked out of his upset loss to John Millman at the US Open, but you can't dismiss the very impressive numbers Federer continues to boast on the hard courts which makes him amongst the favourites to win any tournament held on this surface.
He has perhaps not returned quite as well as he would have liked in 2018- the actual percentage of return points have stayed steady, but Federer has not been as clinical on the break points and that has seen a real drop in the percentage of breaks of serve he has been able to produce. The serve continues to put immense pressure on his opponents though and I think that is going to be key to cracking what has to be a tired opponent both physically and mentally.
It may take a bit of time for Federer to just get his feet comfortable back on a tennis court, but once he does that I do think he can find a late break in each of the first two sets to win and cover this number.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Keven Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Katerina Siniakova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Shanghai Masters Update: 2-0, + 3.66 Units (4 Units Staked, + 91.50% Yield)
The defeat for Cilic could be a critical one with a number of players lining up behind the out of form Croatian in the Race to London and Cilic's place in the top eight could be under serious threat by the end of this week.
One player who avoided any upset was Novak Djokovic who comfortably made it through to the Third Round as he continues his bid to finish the 2018 season with the World Number 1 position.
On Wednesday the rest of the Second Round is going to be completed which means the likes of Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer are in action. There is a lot of Tennis to get through and it looks to be a busy day for my Tennis Picks too which both came through as winners on Tuesday with the third pick not counting as Monica Puig pulled out with an injury.
The ATP World Tour Finals are still a few weeks away compared with the WTA Finals which are played later this month. That means every tournament is now very valuable to those players chasing down a spot in Singapore and more of those players will be in action in Second Round matches across the various tournaments being played on the WTA Tour.
Both the Race to London and Race to Singapore have some miles to be run in the final few weeks of the 2018 season and the picture may get a little clearer by the end of the events this week.
On Wednesday I do think the favourites are going to have the chance to put a number of relatively strong wins on the board so it is no surprise I have picked a number of them that have fallen into my criteria.
I am looking to build on Tuesday and make sure the 2018 season ends with a flourish to secure a winning margin for the season.
Wednesday will likely be a key day to this week with the number of Picks I am taking on after a slow first couple of days at the tournaments.
I will analyse four of the Tennis Picks and add the remainder to the 'MY PICKS' section at the end of the thread.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: It says something for Alexander Zverev that he looks likely to miss playing in Milan in the Next Gen ATP Finals for a second season in a row because he has earned enough points to make the main ATP World Tour Finals. Once again it should underline how young Zverev is when what looks a sure fire Grand Slam Champion in the making is criticised for not having made a big impact in enough Slams despite his World Ranking.
The German will be the first to admit he would have expected to have done better at the Grand Slam level, but he is still learning and Zverev is only going to get better. He still has some work to do to make sure he is playing in London in the ATP World Tour Finals, but it would take some run of losses and his rivals playing some immense tennis to prevent that happening.
With Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem already out of the Shanghai Masters this week feels a good chance for Zverev to confirm his place in London alongside Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro. A couple of wins in Shanghai should be enough although there is no guarantee he will get those with a tough Second Round match to negotiate.
Nikoloz Basilashvili had not shown a lot of appetite for playing on the hard courts before reaching the Fourth Round in the US Open. That has clearly sparked something as Basilashvili has enjoyed the Asian hard court swing so far having won the title in Beijing on Sunday and then moving to Shanghai and dismissing Denis Shapovalov very, very comfortably.
Confidence can be huge for any tennis player and Basilashvili is playing with plenty of that. However you can't dismiss the fact the numbers have been fairly average over the last two months even if they are significantly stronger than what the Georgian has tended to produce on the hard courts.
He is serving better in the last two months than he has for most of the season on the hard courts, but he will be tested by Zverev who is a strong returner and perhaps been a little unfortunate to have had a couple of early losses over the last few weeks. The younger player has the bigger serve in the match and still continues to hold at a higher rate than Basilashvili while you can't ignore the amount of tennis the Beijing Champion has played over the last ten days.
The win over Juan Martin Del Potro to take home the Beijing title is a huge one for Basilashvili and deserves a lot of respect. It should also focus Zverev who has suffered some really poor losses on the hard courts since winning the Washington title in August. He will need to serve better than he did in the loss to Malek Jaziri last week in Beijing, but Zverev should have more in the tank than Basilashvili and perhaps just cool down the hot shooting of the Georgian in this Second Round match and lead to a win and a cover.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: It has been five years since Richard Gasquet and Juan Martin Del Potro have played one another so perhaps there has been time for Gasquet to ignore the fact he has lost the last six matches against the 'Tower of Tandil'. The head to head is another poor one Gasquet has against the very best players on the Tour, but he should be ready for this match having already won in the First Round against Leonardo Mayer to get a feel for the conditions.
He is also going to be facing a Del Potro who played, and lost, the Beijing Final just a few days ago and had to make the surprisingly long journey down to Shanghai for this tournament.
Last year Del Potro did enjoy what have been quicker conditions in Shanghai and he reached the Semi Final in this event. You can see Del Potro is much happier with his all around game these days with the wrist injury that has affected his backhand arguably stronger than it has been since before the issue first came up in 2010.
Del Potro is a US Open Finalist, but he might be disappointed he didn't add to his titles in 2018 in Final losses in Los Cabos and Beijing when he was a strong favourite in both. He will want to continue the positive momentum built up by winning here and his numbers on the hard courts are the strongest Del Potro has produced in his career.
The serve is a potent weapon for the Argentinian but the Del Potro return has been underrated and I think that gives Gasquet considerable problems to deal with. The Frenchman has the quality to look after his serve, but the return numbers have been much weaker this season compared to last and dropped off significantly from 2016.
That should mean Gasquet is under immense pressure to stay in the match throughout this contest and only fatigue can keep Del Potro from winning the match. I am not anticipating big issues for the big man and I think he will be a little too aggressive on the return which can force the mistakes from Gasquet and allow Del Potro to win and cover in this one.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Yibing Wu: Winning in Tokyo would have been the perfect homecoming for Kei Nishokori but he came up just short after going down to Daniil Medvedev in the Final on Sunday. The points earned has got Nishikori a little closer to the top eight in the Race to London, but he needs another strong showing in Shanghai to take advantage of the early exits Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem have suffered.
The first match for him in Shanghai comes against a home player who is considered a key part of the future for Chinese tennis. Yibing Wu is still 19 years old and he beat a fellow Chinese player to make it through to this big stage against one of the best ATP players in the world.
It is a big gap for Wu to bridge with the majority of his time spent on the Challenger circuit as he looks to build his confidence. That has yet to happen for a player Ranked outside the top 400, but the First Round win here will help Wu improve his World Ranking and perhaps start making the move he would be hoping for.
Wu is going to need to play one of his best matches of his career and he has to hope Nishikori is fatigued from the effort he put together in Tokyo before flying over to Shanghai. The numbers produced by the young Chinese player have been decent enough for the Challenger circuit but this is a big step up and he has taken comfortable losses to Felix Auger Aliassime and Malek Jaziri over the last couple of weeks as he looks to take advantage of the home tournaments being played on the main Tour.
Nishikori's numbers have begun to improve on the hard courts after a few months off with an injury and he looked to be in fine form in Tokyo. There are still matches where Nishikori suddenly produces a really sub-par effort which makes it tough to really trust him when it comes to the bigger numbers on the handicaps, but the numbers on both the serve and return should give him a big edge over Wu in this one.
Sometimes the unfamiliarity of an opponent can take a top player off his game and that may be something that works for Wu who will have the home fans behind him. However I do think Nishikori stays mentally balanced and that should be enough to secure around four breaks of serve which should be enough to cover this number.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: For now Roger Federer is still Ranked above Novak Djokovic which means he is the Number 1 Seed in Shanghai as the Swiss superstar returns to the court for the first time since the US Open. Some will consider the Laver Cup as competitive action, but I still think that competition is developing beyond a glorified exhibition event and this will be a different atmosphere for Federer.
He goes straight into a tough situation against Daniil Medvedev who has been in fine form for a couple of months on the hard courts and made a significant move up the World Rankings.
The young Russian has moved to the brink of cracking the top 20 in the World Rankings after winning the title in Tokyo and he battled through a tough match in the First Round here in Shanghai. Medvedev's numbers have taken a huge jump on the hard courts in the 2018 season and the title won in Tokyo is the second he has earned in two months after also winning in Winston Salem.
There is a real belief in the way Medvedev is playing at the moment and it is the slight improvement on the return over the last couple of months which has made all the difference for him. However I do have to wonder how much has been taken out of Medvedev by all the tennis and travel he has had to do over the last two weeks after Qualifying for Tokyo before winning the title as well as the tough First Round match he had here against an opponent I would usually expect Medvedev to beat fairly routinely.
Roger Federer has had a few weeks to get himself mentally ready for the end of the 2018 season as we almost enter a period of the season in which he usually thrives. It was surprising to hear Federer suggest he had almost mentally checked out of his upset loss to John Millman at the US Open, but you can't dismiss the very impressive numbers Federer continues to boast on the hard courts which makes him amongst the favourites to win any tournament held on this surface.
He has perhaps not returned quite as well as he would have liked in 2018- the actual percentage of return points have stayed steady, but Federer has not been as clinical on the break points and that has seen a real drop in the percentage of breaks of serve he has been able to produce. The serve continues to put immense pressure on his opponents though and I think that is going to be key to cracking what has to be a tired opponent both physically and mentally.
It may take a bit of time for Federer to just get his feet comfortable back on a tennis court, but once he does that I do think he can find a late break in each of the first two sets to win and cover this number.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Keven Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Katerina Siniakova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Shanghai Masters Update: 2-0, + 3.66 Units (4 Units Staked, + 91.50% Yield)
Saturday, 15 October 2016
Shanghai Tennis Picks 2016 (October 15th)
This has been a very good week for the tennis picks from the four tournaments being played, but I am looking to underline that with one more strong showing this Saturday.
It is a day when all of the Semi Final matches are to be played and another strong set of results will mean a positive week has been assured.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: This has been a week in which Novak Djokovic has had to dig deep as he not only looks to protect his World Number 1 spot, but also regain some confidence that looks to have been lost over the last few months. Now I don't know Djokovic personally so I am not sure whether there are factors at play which have yet to be determined around his health or personal issues that have yet to be cleared up.
Either way, no one can deny that Novak Djokovic has not been looking like himself since his defeat at Wimbledon as he deals with wrist issues and his place at the top of the ATP Tour looks under threat. However I think Djokovic will still be too good for Roberto Bautista Agut who won't have a lot of weapons to intimidate as his last two opponents have.
All credit needs to be given to Bautista Agut for the run to the Semi Final this week but this is not a good match up for him with Djokovic likely to get plenty of pressure on his serve with his own return. That pressure against this limited serve can see the Spaniard break down, although I also expect Bautista Agut to have his chances to break serve against an opponent who has not been at his very best behind that shot over the last few months.
They have had some closer than expected matches at times, but ultimately you would think that Djokovic has too much in the locker, even in this current state, for Bautista Agut. The edge in the rallies should go to the World Number 1 more often than not and I think he can come through with a 75, 63 win and move into a potentially huge Final on Sunday.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Gilles Simon: Andy Murray have been in really good form for a few months now, but he seems to have kicked on another gear this week in Shanghai. He has dominated the opponents he has played so far and I think Murray is in a position where he can take advantage of any tiredness that Gilles Simon is feeling.
That is because Simon had to play late into Friday evening in overcoming Jack Sock in three tight sets and doesn't have a lot of recovery time ahead of this Semi Final. While the Frenchman has been able to run all day through his career, I do feel he has lost a bit of the stamina that made him an irritating player to play these days, and those factors can combine to help Murray overcome his challenge.
There is no doubt that Simon will give all he has, I just simply don't believe he can have that much left in the tank going into this Semi Final and Murray is playing well enough to put him under intense pressure. The serve has been working well for Murray this week and that should only make Simon feel the pain even more from a physical and mental standpoint in this Semi Final.
Murray and Simon have had some close matches in the past, but I can't ignore Murray's form combined with the obvious tiredness that Simon has got to be dealing with. That should see the World Number 2 move into that likely Final against Novak Djokovic with a 63, 63 win in this second Semi Final.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 games v Alison Riske: The race for the final places at the WTA Finals has heated up this week with all of the leading contenders, bar Johanna Konta, reaching the Semi Final of the events they have taken part in. Svetlana Kuznetsova knows her chances of reaching the elite eight are diminishing because she needed the players above her to falter, but she can put the pressure on by winning and moving into the Final in Tianjin.
The match up with Alison Riske has proved a good one for Kuznetsova in the past with all four previous matches being won by the Russian. Most of those have come in comfortable fashion too as she has used her stronger groundstrokes to wear down Riske over the course of the match and I think something similar will happen here.
One concern has to be the amount of effort Kuznetsova had to put into her Quarter Final win over Naomi Osaka which was won in a deciding set tie-breaker. It also has to be pointed out that Riske has been in very good form herself and she has been a tough nut for players to crack, but Kuznetsova has the stronger serve and groundstrokes and that has to be a difference maker.
It is a lot of games that Kuznetsova is being asked to cover, but I think she can show why she is the superior player by coming through this match with a 64, 63 win.
Kristina Mladenovic + 3.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: All credit has to be given to Daria Gavrilova for the way she managed to get past Angelique Kerber in the Quarter Final, but I am not sure the World Number 1 was completely at the races. While I am not surprised that Gavrilova has come into this Semi Final as the favourite, I do have to say I am that Kristina Mladenovic is being given as many games as she is in this match.
It has been a decent week for Mladenovic who has been able to serve her way out of trouble at times, while she showed some heart in coming from a set down to beat Bethanie Mattek-Sands in the Quarter Final.
Mladenovic has managed to play the big points well which has seen her win all of the tie-breakers that she has played this week. That will be important in this one as both players should be able to create the break points but it will be down to the player who is able to take those opportunities that will make it through to the Final on Sunday.
I do think this will be a close match, much like it was when they met at the Australian Open back in January. Back then it was Gavrilova who came through in three tough sets and I think something similar may be needed here which makes this number of games far too many to be ignored.
Carla Suarez Navarro + 2.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Both players still have an opportunity to play in Singapore in the WTA Finals and I am expecting a tight Semi Final between Dominika Cibulkova and Carla Suarez Navarro. I am certainly expecting a tighter match than the layers are and I also do think the Spaniard should not be the underdog in what I considered to be a pick 'em match.
The form guide certainly suggests that Cibulkova is the more likely winner, but Suarez Navarro has won the last two matches between the players and that has to play a mental role in the match.
Both players have looked vulnerable behind serve which is an issue for them, but I think it does mean we are likely to see a three set match. I can see Cibulkova being able to break down the Suarez Navarro game with her power, but I also think there will be moments where the Spaniard is able to make enough balls back into awkward positions to force mistakes from the Cibulkova game.
Anticipating this match to be closer than the layers means it is an easy choice for me to back Carla Suarez Navarro to at least keep this match close with the games she is being given. I wouldn't be surprised if this goes deep into a third set and that might be long enough for Suarez Navarro to make the games count.
Madison Keys - 4.5 games v Viktorija Golubic: This has been a really good week for Madison Keys and finishing off with a title should mean a first appearance at the WTA Finals for the young American. She has been in dominant form and I have backed her three times already this week and see no reason why she can't cover for a fourth time in a row.
The big serve possessed by Keys has gotten her out of trouble on the indoor hard court in Linz and I think that serve has also produced pressure on her opponents who know they can't afford any mistakes on their own serve. Unfortunately the struggles on the return means it has been difficult for players to stay focused when they are serving and that has seen Keys take charge in sets and matches.
Viktorija Golubic received the benefit of a Garbine Muguruza withdrawal in the Quarter Final, but she did spend a significant amount of time on court. I think Golubic has the look of a player that will make improvements in her World Ranking over the course of the next few months, but I also think she is going to be in a difficult situation against Keys in the form the American has been in.
The problem for Golubic is that she has not been serving as effectively as she would have wanted during this week. She has been broken ten times in her last two matches and that is not going to cut it against Keys and I think the American will end up coming through with a 75, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 18-11, + 11.32 Units (58 Units Staked, + 19.52% Yield)
It is a day when all of the Semi Final matches are to be played and another strong set of results will mean a positive week has been assured.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: This has been a week in which Novak Djokovic has had to dig deep as he not only looks to protect his World Number 1 spot, but also regain some confidence that looks to have been lost over the last few months. Now I don't know Djokovic personally so I am not sure whether there are factors at play which have yet to be determined around his health or personal issues that have yet to be cleared up.
Either way, no one can deny that Novak Djokovic has not been looking like himself since his defeat at Wimbledon as he deals with wrist issues and his place at the top of the ATP Tour looks under threat. However I think Djokovic will still be too good for Roberto Bautista Agut who won't have a lot of weapons to intimidate as his last two opponents have.
All credit needs to be given to Bautista Agut for the run to the Semi Final this week but this is not a good match up for him with Djokovic likely to get plenty of pressure on his serve with his own return. That pressure against this limited serve can see the Spaniard break down, although I also expect Bautista Agut to have his chances to break serve against an opponent who has not been at his very best behind that shot over the last few months.
They have had some closer than expected matches at times, but ultimately you would think that Djokovic has too much in the locker, even in this current state, for Bautista Agut. The edge in the rallies should go to the World Number 1 more often than not and I think he can come through with a 75, 63 win and move into a potentially huge Final on Sunday.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Gilles Simon: Andy Murray have been in really good form for a few months now, but he seems to have kicked on another gear this week in Shanghai. He has dominated the opponents he has played so far and I think Murray is in a position where he can take advantage of any tiredness that Gilles Simon is feeling.
That is because Simon had to play late into Friday evening in overcoming Jack Sock in three tight sets and doesn't have a lot of recovery time ahead of this Semi Final. While the Frenchman has been able to run all day through his career, I do feel he has lost a bit of the stamina that made him an irritating player to play these days, and those factors can combine to help Murray overcome his challenge.
There is no doubt that Simon will give all he has, I just simply don't believe he can have that much left in the tank going into this Semi Final and Murray is playing well enough to put him under intense pressure. The serve has been working well for Murray this week and that should only make Simon feel the pain even more from a physical and mental standpoint in this Semi Final.
Murray and Simon have had some close matches in the past, but I can't ignore Murray's form combined with the obvious tiredness that Simon has got to be dealing with. That should see the World Number 2 move into that likely Final against Novak Djokovic with a 63, 63 win in this second Semi Final.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 games v Alison Riske: The race for the final places at the WTA Finals has heated up this week with all of the leading contenders, bar Johanna Konta, reaching the Semi Final of the events they have taken part in. Svetlana Kuznetsova knows her chances of reaching the elite eight are diminishing because she needed the players above her to falter, but she can put the pressure on by winning and moving into the Final in Tianjin.
The match up with Alison Riske has proved a good one for Kuznetsova in the past with all four previous matches being won by the Russian. Most of those have come in comfortable fashion too as she has used her stronger groundstrokes to wear down Riske over the course of the match and I think something similar will happen here.
One concern has to be the amount of effort Kuznetsova had to put into her Quarter Final win over Naomi Osaka which was won in a deciding set tie-breaker. It also has to be pointed out that Riske has been in very good form herself and she has been a tough nut for players to crack, but Kuznetsova has the stronger serve and groundstrokes and that has to be a difference maker.
It is a lot of games that Kuznetsova is being asked to cover, but I think she can show why she is the superior player by coming through this match with a 64, 63 win.
Kristina Mladenovic + 3.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: All credit has to be given to Daria Gavrilova for the way she managed to get past Angelique Kerber in the Quarter Final, but I am not sure the World Number 1 was completely at the races. While I am not surprised that Gavrilova has come into this Semi Final as the favourite, I do have to say I am that Kristina Mladenovic is being given as many games as she is in this match.
It has been a decent week for Mladenovic who has been able to serve her way out of trouble at times, while she showed some heart in coming from a set down to beat Bethanie Mattek-Sands in the Quarter Final.
Mladenovic has managed to play the big points well which has seen her win all of the tie-breakers that she has played this week. That will be important in this one as both players should be able to create the break points but it will be down to the player who is able to take those opportunities that will make it through to the Final on Sunday.
I do think this will be a close match, much like it was when they met at the Australian Open back in January. Back then it was Gavrilova who came through in three tough sets and I think something similar may be needed here which makes this number of games far too many to be ignored.
Carla Suarez Navarro + 2.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Both players still have an opportunity to play in Singapore in the WTA Finals and I am expecting a tight Semi Final between Dominika Cibulkova and Carla Suarez Navarro. I am certainly expecting a tighter match than the layers are and I also do think the Spaniard should not be the underdog in what I considered to be a pick 'em match.
The form guide certainly suggests that Cibulkova is the more likely winner, but Suarez Navarro has won the last two matches between the players and that has to play a mental role in the match.
Both players have looked vulnerable behind serve which is an issue for them, but I think it does mean we are likely to see a three set match. I can see Cibulkova being able to break down the Suarez Navarro game with her power, but I also think there will be moments where the Spaniard is able to make enough balls back into awkward positions to force mistakes from the Cibulkova game.
Anticipating this match to be closer than the layers means it is an easy choice for me to back Carla Suarez Navarro to at least keep this match close with the games she is being given. I wouldn't be surprised if this goes deep into a third set and that might be long enough for Suarez Navarro to make the games count.
Madison Keys - 4.5 games v Viktorija Golubic: This has been a really good week for Madison Keys and finishing off with a title should mean a first appearance at the WTA Finals for the young American. She has been in dominant form and I have backed her three times already this week and see no reason why she can't cover for a fourth time in a row.
The big serve possessed by Keys has gotten her out of trouble on the indoor hard court in Linz and I think that serve has also produced pressure on her opponents who know they can't afford any mistakes on their own serve. Unfortunately the struggles on the return means it has been difficult for players to stay focused when they are serving and that has seen Keys take charge in sets and matches.
Viktorija Golubic received the benefit of a Garbine Muguruza withdrawal in the Quarter Final, but she did spend a significant amount of time on court. I think Golubic has the look of a player that will make improvements in her World Ranking over the course of the next few months, but I also think she is going to be in a difficult situation against Keys in the form the American has been in.
The problem for Golubic is that she has not been serving as effectively as she would have wanted during this week. She has been broken ten times in her last two matches and that is not going to cut it against Keys and I think the American will end up coming through with a 75, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 18-11, + 11.32 Units (58 Units Staked, + 19.52% Yield)
Friday, 14 October 2016
Shanghai Tennis Picks 2016 (October 14th)
The last couple of days have begun to turn this week into the one I wanted with plenty of winning picks meaning a positive week is in the offing.
There is still three days left of the week though so nothing has been decided yet and I have seen plenty of times in the 2016 season when it has looked liked a strong week was about to be put together only to end up with a poor few days to blow those chances.
I just want to stay focused and keeping making the picks as I have and hope the week can be a positive one as I try to end the 2016 season with some momentum to take into the 2017 season which will begin six weeks after this one comes to a close.
Roberto Bautista Agut + 2.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Any worries about the Jo-Wilfried Tsonga health this week in Shanghai have been put to rest with the way the Frenchman has worked his way through the draw. Coming from behind to beat the in-form Alexander Zverev is an impressive performance from Tsonga and he is favoured to beat Roberto Bautista Agut in this first Quarter Final of the day.
Tsonga will be playing Bautista Agut for the third time in 2016 but he has failed to get over the hump in two defeats that have both gone the distance. Both matches have seen Bautista Agut come close to losing before managing to turn the match in his favour and I think something similar might happen here.
You would give Tsonga a significant advantage on the serve, but Bautista Agut's strength is making sure he makes as many balls back as possible and that can see him work into the weaker Tsonga backhand. The Tsonga return is also not as good as some of the better players on the Tour and that means Bautista Agut can look after his weaker serve for the most part.
I hate backing against Tsonga when he is in the form he is in, but Bautista Agut has enjoyed the challenge of facing the powerhouse from France and I will take the games in a match that Bautista Agut could potentially win outright.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v David Goffin: Both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have reached the Quarter Final in Shanghai as they continue their duel for the Number 1 spot in the World Rankings. Djokovic is still firmly in the driving seat and with a relatively straight forward looking Quarter Final to come, especially compared with Murray who is facing David Goffin, a player chasing a spot in the ATP World Tour Finals.
However I think Murray is quite clearly the superior player in this match and I expect he is going to be able to show that over the course of ninety minutes on the court.
You know what you're going to get with Goffin- he will work hard and play some quality points, but he does lack the power and the serve to really bother the very best players. Murray is most certainly one of the best players on the Tour and his strong return game should mean he is putting the pressure on Goffin consistently and this has proven to be part of the reason Murray has won all four previous matches.
The British player also has the superior serve in terms of getting some cheap points from it and I think Murray is able to dictate more rallies than not. I am not that surprised that Murray has yet to drop a set to Goffin and many of those have seen him break down the Belgian Number 1 with double breaks of serve not uncommon. I think that will happen here in the form Murray has been in and I think he can wear down Goffin in a 75, 62 win and cover a big looking number.
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: This has been a tough road through to the Quarter Final in Hong Kong for the World Number 1 Angelique Kerber including having to win her Second Round match over two days thanks to the rain in the area. She has made it through to the Quarter Final though and will know she needs to improve her level if Kerber is going to find a way past Daria Gavrilova.
Past matches have gone in favour of Kerber as she has shown her movement and defensive skills will give her a chance to weather the Gavrilova storm. The latter can produce a very high level of tennis at times, but Kerber will know if she can stay with her during those moments that the level will drop and turn this match in her favour.
The consistent level that Kerber has produced is going to be tough for Gavrilova to match over two hours and their previous matches has seen the German prove too good even if she has to bide her time for the errors to come. I can see something similar happening in this Quarter Final with the Australian perhaps taking the lead, but Kerber to eventually start wearing her down physically and mentally by producing enough strong defensive moments to force Gavrilova to go closer and closer to the lines.
That should extract errors from the Gavrilova game and eventually I think Kerber will start breaking down her serve. As long as Kerber can protect her serve from being broken more than three times, I think she can come through this match and get over this number.
Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 games v Denisa Allertova: I will admit that I am not always keen to back Carla Suarez Navarro when it comes to big numbers like this for her to cover. While the Spaniard has found a way to win matches, her serve can be attacked and that makes it hard to trust her to win matches by a margin to cover this number of games.
However on this occasion I do think Suarez Navarro can cover against Denisa Allertova even though the Czech player has produced two very good wins this week. Allertova does have some strong qualities and I have watched her play at times and really respected what she can do, but I am not sure she has the consistency to stick with Suarez Navarro in this one.
Allertova's recent losses have come against players who can make plenty of balls and to players who don't have the biggest serves on the Tour either. I think this suggests that Suarez Navarro will be able to outmanoeuvre her in this Quarter Final as long as she mentally doesn't check out of the sets.
The recent form displayed by Suarez Navarro is not very encouraging, but she has played well in Linz as she tries to keep alive her hopes of making it to Singapore. Her two wins have come by comfortable margins and I think she will come through a tough first set before pulling away with a 75, 63 win and move into the Semi Final on Saturday.
Madison Keys - 5.5 games v Oceane Dodin: This has been a good week to back Madison Keys who has covered for me in both of her matches in Linz ahead of this Quarter Final. I am looking for Keys to make it a hat-trick of wins when she takes on Oceane Dodin although the Frenchwoman is someone who I feel is destined for a solid career on the WTA Tour.
Unfortunately I think there is still some developing for Dodin to do before she can really match some of the better players on the Tour. The recent form does make Dodin dangerous as she will have built up plenty of confidence, but she won't have faced the kind of firepower that Keys brings to the court too often in that run.
Once again the Keys serve is going to be so important in this match as that shot inspires the rest of her game. She will certainly also look to attack the Dodin second serve and I think trying to deal with that power is going to be eye opening for the Frenchwoman who will be able to get away with some shots at the level she has been competing in but not able to do the same against Keys.
I do think it will take Keys a bit of time to assess what Dodin brings to the court so the first set could be tight. If Keys continues to serve as well as she has in the last couple of Rounds, I do think she will put the pressure on Dodin and eventually wear her down in this one and come through with a 64, 62 win.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: The chase for a spot in the WTA Finals has clearly motivated Dominika Cibulkova who has won both of her matches very easily so far this week. This might be the biggest challenge she has faced though against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who is the defending Champion in Linz and has played her best tennis in weeks here.
Matches between these players have been very competitive in the past and I am anticipating another one on Friday. You can see that they match up well with each other but Cibulkova's edge in terms of her movement around the court should prove to be the decisive factor in the match.
In saying that, I don't think it is going to be straight forward for Cibulkova with both players possessing plenty of power on the groundstrokes and the first strike being extremely important. If Cibulkova gives Pavlyuchenkova too many second serves to look at, I think she could be put in big trouble off the return, while generally Cibulkova's serve is not as effective as the Russian's can be.
I just don't know if Pavlyuchenkova is going to have the consistency to continue finding the big winners over two hours that these players are likely to spend on court. Winning a set should still give Pavlyuchenkova a chance to cover this number though and I am expecting her to do that, although ultimately her defence of the title her might come up short as Cibulkova battles to a 36, 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut + 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 14-9, + 7.60 Units (46 Units Staked, + 16.52% Yield)
There is still three days left of the week though so nothing has been decided yet and I have seen plenty of times in the 2016 season when it has looked liked a strong week was about to be put together only to end up with a poor few days to blow those chances.
I just want to stay focused and keeping making the picks as I have and hope the week can be a positive one as I try to end the 2016 season with some momentum to take into the 2017 season which will begin six weeks after this one comes to a close.
Roberto Bautista Agut + 2.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Any worries about the Jo-Wilfried Tsonga health this week in Shanghai have been put to rest with the way the Frenchman has worked his way through the draw. Coming from behind to beat the in-form Alexander Zverev is an impressive performance from Tsonga and he is favoured to beat Roberto Bautista Agut in this first Quarter Final of the day.
Tsonga will be playing Bautista Agut for the third time in 2016 but he has failed to get over the hump in two defeats that have both gone the distance. Both matches have seen Bautista Agut come close to losing before managing to turn the match in his favour and I think something similar might happen here.
You would give Tsonga a significant advantage on the serve, but Bautista Agut's strength is making sure he makes as many balls back as possible and that can see him work into the weaker Tsonga backhand. The Tsonga return is also not as good as some of the better players on the Tour and that means Bautista Agut can look after his weaker serve for the most part.
I hate backing against Tsonga when he is in the form he is in, but Bautista Agut has enjoyed the challenge of facing the powerhouse from France and I will take the games in a match that Bautista Agut could potentially win outright.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games v David Goffin: Both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have reached the Quarter Final in Shanghai as they continue their duel for the Number 1 spot in the World Rankings. Djokovic is still firmly in the driving seat and with a relatively straight forward looking Quarter Final to come, especially compared with Murray who is facing David Goffin, a player chasing a spot in the ATP World Tour Finals.
However I think Murray is quite clearly the superior player in this match and I expect he is going to be able to show that over the course of ninety minutes on the court.
You know what you're going to get with Goffin- he will work hard and play some quality points, but he does lack the power and the serve to really bother the very best players. Murray is most certainly one of the best players on the Tour and his strong return game should mean he is putting the pressure on Goffin consistently and this has proven to be part of the reason Murray has won all four previous matches.
The British player also has the superior serve in terms of getting some cheap points from it and I think Murray is able to dictate more rallies than not. I am not that surprised that Murray has yet to drop a set to Goffin and many of those have seen him break down the Belgian Number 1 with double breaks of serve not uncommon. I think that will happen here in the form Murray has been in and I think he can wear down Goffin in a 75, 62 win and cover a big looking number.
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: This has been a tough road through to the Quarter Final in Hong Kong for the World Number 1 Angelique Kerber including having to win her Second Round match over two days thanks to the rain in the area. She has made it through to the Quarter Final though and will know she needs to improve her level if Kerber is going to find a way past Daria Gavrilova.
Past matches have gone in favour of Kerber as she has shown her movement and defensive skills will give her a chance to weather the Gavrilova storm. The latter can produce a very high level of tennis at times, but Kerber will know if she can stay with her during those moments that the level will drop and turn this match in her favour.
The consistent level that Kerber has produced is going to be tough for Gavrilova to match over two hours and their previous matches has seen the German prove too good even if she has to bide her time for the errors to come. I can see something similar happening in this Quarter Final with the Australian perhaps taking the lead, but Kerber to eventually start wearing her down physically and mentally by producing enough strong defensive moments to force Gavrilova to go closer and closer to the lines.
That should extract errors from the Gavrilova game and eventually I think Kerber will start breaking down her serve. As long as Kerber can protect her serve from being broken more than three times, I think she can come through this match and get over this number.
Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 games v Denisa Allertova: I will admit that I am not always keen to back Carla Suarez Navarro when it comes to big numbers like this for her to cover. While the Spaniard has found a way to win matches, her serve can be attacked and that makes it hard to trust her to win matches by a margin to cover this number of games.
However on this occasion I do think Suarez Navarro can cover against Denisa Allertova even though the Czech player has produced two very good wins this week. Allertova does have some strong qualities and I have watched her play at times and really respected what she can do, but I am not sure she has the consistency to stick with Suarez Navarro in this one.
Allertova's recent losses have come against players who can make plenty of balls and to players who don't have the biggest serves on the Tour either. I think this suggests that Suarez Navarro will be able to outmanoeuvre her in this Quarter Final as long as she mentally doesn't check out of the sets.
The recent form displayed by Suarez Navarro is not very encouraging, but she has played well in Linz as she tries to keep alive her hopes of making it to Singapore. Her two wins have come by comfortable margins and I think she will come through a tough first set before pulling away with a 75, 63 win and move into the Semi Final on Saturday.
Madison Keys - 5.5 games v Oceane Dodin: This has been a good week to back Madison Keys who has covered for me in both of her matches in Linz ahead of this Quarter Final. I am looking for Keys to make it a hat-trick of wins when she takes on Oceane Dodin although the Frenchwoman is someone who I feel is destined for a solid career on the WTA Tour.
Unfortunately I think there is still some developing for Dodin to do before she can really match some of the better players on the Tour. The recent form does make Dodin dangerous as she will have built up plenty of confidence, but she won't have faced the kind of firepower that Keys brings to the court too often in that run.
Once again the Keys serve is going to be so important in this match as that shot inspires the rest of her game. She will certainly also look to attack the Dodin second serve and I think trying to deal with that power is going to be eye opening for the Frenchwoman who will be able to get away with some shots at the level she has been competing in but not able to do the same against Keys.
I do think it will take Keys a bit of time to assess what Dodin brings to the court so the first set could be tight. If Keys continues to serve as well as she has in the last couple of Rounds, I do think she will put the pressure on Dodin and eventually wear her down in this one and come through with a 64, 62 win.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: The chase for a spot in the WTA Finals has clearly motivated Dominika Cibulkova who has won both of her matches very easily so far this week. This might be the biggest challenge she has faced though against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who is the defending Champion in Linz and has played her best tennis in weeks here.
Matches between these players have been very competitive in the past and I am anticipating another one on Friday. You can see that they match up well with each other but Cibulkova's edge in terms of her movement around the court should prove to be the decisive factor in the match.
In saying that, I don't think it is going to be straight forward for Cibulkova with both players possessing plenty of power on the groundstrokes and the first strike being extremely important. If Cibulkova gives Pavlyuchenkova too many second serves to look at, I think she could be put in big trouble off the return, while generally Cibulkova's serve is not as effective as the Russian's can be.
I just don't know if Pavlyuchenkova is going to have the consistency to continue finding the big winners over two hours that these players are likely to spend on court. Winning a set should still give Pavlyuchenkova a chance to cover this number though and I am expecting her to do that, although ultimately her defence of the title her might come up short as Cibulkova battles to a 36, 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut + 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 14-9, + 7.60 Units (46 Units Staked, + 16.52% Yield)
Saturday, 17 October 2015
Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2015 (October 17th)
Semi Final time in the four tournaments being played on the ATP and WTA Tours this week and it looks like a very good one for the ladies who were chasing a place in the WTA Tour Finals in Singapore. The likes of Agnieszka Radwanska, Venus Williams and Angelique Kerber have all reached the Semi Finals and will be favoured to move into the Final, but Karolina Pliskova will also have something to say when she plays Radwanska in a huge game for both players.
The Shanghai Masters also promised a very good end to the Masters tournament there with all four players left in the draw showing some strong form.
It would be silly of me to go on without mentioning the impressive nature of Rafael Nadal's win over Stan Wawrinka. I didn't see too much of the match because of the time it came onto the court, but the highlights show the Spaniard is definitely looking in a much stronger place mentally and his confidence has improved no end.
There were signs of that at the US Open, but the last two weeks have seen a real improvement and picking up the kind of momentum that could see Nadal better 2015 considerably when the 2016 season rolls around. Wins over Ivo Karlovic and Milos Raonic have to be respected this week, but the total dismantling of Stan Wawrinka was so unexpected and Nadal will now look to get to the Final and have second crack at Novak Djokovic in the space of seven days, assuming the World Number 1 beats Andy Murray in the second Semi Final too.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: There is no doubting what a fantastic week this potentially is going to be for Rafael Nadal, perhaps the one that people will point back to in the 2016 season as where the former World Number 1 began to return to the top of the Tour. Consistency is still going to be the key for Nadal, but his three wins this week have been fantastic, none more so than the one over Stan Wawrinka when he dropped just three games.
That was a mighty impressive Quarter Final performance from Nadal and he will have to go to the well again when he faces Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who is also having a strong tournament.
A win over Kevin Anderson has given Tsonga's chances of reaching the World Tour Finals a shot in the arm, while he also won the title in Metz following the US Open. He still needs to keep winning his matches if he is going to sneak into the top eight in the Race for London, but Tsonga has had the more difficult path through to this Semi Final.
With the confidence that Rafael Nadal is clearly feeling at the moment which is producing so much better length on his groundstrokes, I think he will get the better of Tsonga. The Frenchman can hope to serve massively to give himself a fighting chance, but the backhand wing will likely be exposed by the heavy Nadal forehand and I expect the latter breaks him down with a 75, 64 win.
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Andy Murray: Whenever Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray meet on a tennis court, you can guarantee it will be a close match for at least the first couple of sets. Andy Murray has certainly been getting closer to get over the final hurdle before his win over Djokovic at the Canadian Masters Final.
It will take something special for Murray to make it two in a row against Djokovic considering how well the latter has been playing over the last two weeks. Granted the majority of those players he beat were not to the level that Andy Murray can produce, but no one had won more than three games in a single set until Bernard Tomic got to a tie-breaker.
The Australian lost that set and then was beaten 6-1 in the second set and I think Djokovic has his confidence at an extremely high level. He always has to battle hard to knock off Murray, and the British player has been in very strong form himself this week, but it is hard to disregard how dominant Djokovic has been.
I imagine the first set will be closely contested but I do think Djokovic will manage to battle through it and then move away from Murray. It looks a great Semi Final for the neutrals to watch too, but Djokovic continuing his fine form by being too good in a 75, 64 win is my pick.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 3.5 games v Kirsten Flipkens: There has been some good late season form shown by Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and she has to be the favourite to go on and win the title in Linz. She hasn't dropped a set this week but now she faces an opponent in Kirsten Flipkens who also is yet to drop a set and looks in decent form herself.
However, Pavlyuchenkova has the bigger serve and the power from the back of the court to see off Flipkens as long as she is able to deal with the variation the Belgian player brings.
That hasn't proved to be a problem for her in the past as Pavlyuchenkova has won the two previous matches between these players. That includes a crushing win in Baku just a couple of months ago and I think she has produced the better tennis of the two players recently which should help the Russian move through to the Final.
I expect Pavlyuchenkova to create the break point chances to win the match and I am expecting her to do that in straight sets. A 64, 64 win for Pavlyuchenkova would see her through comfortably enough and looks the most likely scoreline to come out of the match.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: Two players chasing a place in the WTA Finals meet in a big Semi Final with just a couple of weeks until that tournament begins. Out of the two players, I am finding it hard to look past Agnieszka Radwanska to beat Karolina Pliskova on the recent form that both players have been producing.
She has dominated the head to head with Pliskova having won all four previous matches including one in Tokyo just a couple of weeks ago. All eight sets they have competed have gone to Radwanska who has won the title in Tokyo and made the Semi Final in Beijing which has given her a chance to finish in a top eight position and a place in the Tour Finals.
You can't argue with what Pliskova has produced this week and she has won titles this year, but her failures in the Grand Slams has to be a big disappointment. The serve is effective, but Pliskova plays with such little margin for error that she can suddenly move into a 'cold streak' and fall away in matches.
I think the Radwanska serve gives her a chance to stay competitive in this one, but she will still eventually go down 75, 63 and I will back the Pole to cover.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-8, - 3 Units (32 Units Staked, - 9.38% Yield)
The Shanghai Masters also promised a very good end to the Masters tournament there with all four players left in the draw showing some strong form.
It would be silly of me to go on without mentioning the impressive nature of Rafael Nadal's win over Stan Wawrinka. I didn't see too much of the match because of the time it came onto the court, but the highlights show the Spaniard is definitely looking in a much stronger place mentally and his confidence has improved no end.
There were signs of that at the US Open, but the last two weeks have seen a real improvement and picking up the kind of momentum that could see Nadal better 2015 considerably when the 2016 season rolls around. Wins over Ivo Karlovic and Milos Raonic have to be respected this week, but the total dismantling of Stan Wawrinka was so unexpected and Nadal will now look to get to the Final and have second crack at Novak Djokovic in the space of seven days, assuming the World Number 1 beats Andy Murray in the second Semi Final too.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: There is no doubting what a fantastic week this potentially is going to be for Rafael Nadal, perhaps the one that people will point back to in the 2016 season as where the former World Number 1 began to return to the top of the Tour. Consistency is still going to be the key for Nadal, but his three wins this week have been fantastic, none more so than the one over Stan Wawrinka when he dropped just three games.
That was a mighty impressive Quarter Final performance from Nadal and he will have to go to the well again when he faces Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who is also having a strong tournament.
A win over Kevin Anderson has given Tsonga's chances of reaching the World Tour Finals a shot in the arm, while he also won the title in Metz following the US Open. He still needs to keep winning his matches if he is going to sneak into the top eight in the Race for London, but Tsonga has had the more difficult path through to this Semi Final.
With the confidence that Rafael Nadal is clearly feeling at the moment which is producing so much better length on his groundstrokes, I think he will get the better of Tsonga. The Frenchman can hope to serve massively to give himself a fighting chance, but the backhand wing will likely be exposed by the heavy Nadal forehand and I expect the latter breaks him down with a 75, 64 win.
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Andy Murray: Whenever Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray meet on a tennis court, you can guarantee it will be a close match for at least the first couple of sets. Andy Murray has certainly been getting closer to get over the final hurdle before his win over Djokovic at the Canadian Masters Final.
It will take something special for Murray to make it two in a row against Djokovic considering how well the latter has been playing over the last two weeks. Granted the majority of those players he beat were not to the level that Andy Murray can produce, but no one had won more than three games in a single set until Bernard Tomic got to a tie-breaker.
The Australian lost that set and then was beaten 6-1 in the second set and I think Djokovic has his confidence at an extremely high level. He always has to battle hard to knock off Murray, and the British player has been in very strong form himself this week, but it is hard to disregard how dominant Djokovic has been.
I imagine the first set will be closely contested but I do think Djokovic will manage to battle through it and then move away from Murray. It looks a great Semi Final for the neutrals to watch too, but Djokovic continuing his fine form by being too good in a 75, 64 win is my pick.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 3.5 games v Kirsten Flipkens: There has been some good late season form shown by Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and she has to be the favourite to go on and win the title in Linz. She hasn't dropped a set this week but now she faces an opponent in Kirsten Flipkens who also is yet to drop a set and looks in decent form herself.
However, Pavlyuchenkova has the bigger serve and the power from the back of the court to see off Flipkens as long as she is able to deal with the variation the Belgian player brings.
That hasn't proved to be a problem for her in the past as Pavlyuchenkova has won the two previous matches between these players. That includes a crushing win in Baku just a couple of months ago and I think she has produced the better tennis of the two players recently which should help the Russian move through to the Final.
I expect Pavlyuchenkova to create the break point chances to win the match and I am expecting her to do that in straight sets. A 64, 64 win for Pavlyuchenkova would see her through comfortably enough and looks the most likely scoreline to come out of the match.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: Two players chasing a place in the WTA Finals meet in a big Semi Final with just a couple of weeks until that tournament begins. Out of the two players, I am finding it hard to look past Agnieszka Radwanska to beat Karolina Pliskova on the recent form that both players have been producing.
She has dominated the head to head with Pliskova having won all four previous matches including one in Tokyo just a couple of weeks ago. All eight sets they have competed have gone to Radwanska who has won the title in Tokyo and made the Semi Final in Beijing which has given her a chance to finish in a top eight position and a place in the Tour Finals.
You can't argue with what Pliskova has produced this week and she has won titles this year, but her failures in the Grand Slams has to be a big disappointment. The serve is effective, but Pliskova plays with such little margin for error that she can suddenly move into a 'cold streak' and fall away in matches.
I think the Radwanska serve gives her a chance to stay competitive in this one, but she will still eventually go down 75, 63 and I will back the Pole to cover.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-8, - 3 Units (32 Units Staked, - 9.38% Yield)
Friday, 16 October 2015
Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2015 (October 16th)
The Quarter Finals have come around at the four tournaments being played across Europe and Asia and there are some top matches for the neutrals to enjoy, particularly those at the Shanghai Masters.
That looks like being a quality ending to the penultimate Masters of the season, although I think you will do very well to look past Novak Djokovic who has not just been winning matches, but dominating opponents over the last couple of weeks.
Precious Ranking points have been earned already by those chasing the World Tour Finals places and it will be the winner of the Kevin Anderson and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Quarter Final that is the most likely challenger for one of the top eight spots. That makes that match even more important than simply getting to a Masters Semi Final and looks a close one to call.
The picks went 3-2 on Thursday, but it was somewhat disappointing that it wasn't a better day with two poor picks that never looked like covering.
Rafael Nadal-Stan Wawrinka Over 23.5 Total Games: This should be a very close match on Thursday between two players who have both produced some very good tennis at testing times this week. Stan Wawrinka might have lost twelve of his fourteen matches against Rafael Nadal, but he has won the two most recent ones and will be confident he can be the player to snap Novak Djokovic's run of form.
However, there is no doubting that Nadal has picked up some confidence from his run to the Final in Beijing and followed that up with two solid wins here. He has played two big servers so this is a completely different test for Nadal against an opponent who is capable of out-hitting anyone from the back of the court when he is on his game.
Both Nadal and Wawrinka had long weeks last week and I do wonder if fatigue is a potential factor and if there will be enough in the tank to come back from a set down regardless of who loses it. On the other hand, my feeling is that this is a big match for both players who are still looking to prove something to the other big names out on Tour and so I expect both to battle very much to the end.
Stan Wawrinka has won five of the last six sets these players have played against one another so I am surprised he is the slight underdog in this one. I considered backing him to win the match but I do think Nadal is playing very well at the moment and it wouldn't surprise me at all if we have to see a decider between them.
Andy Murray - 2.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Despite both of these players spending as much time in the top five of the World Rankings as they have, this will only be the third time that Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych have met this season. It is Andy Murray who leads 2-0 to level up his career head to head against Berdych and the decision of the Czech man to appoint Dani Vallverdu, Murray's former coach, hasn't worked out for him in this head to head.
Any time you reach the Quarter Finals of a Masters tournament, it does mean you have likely won some good matches in the week and that can be said for both Murray and Berdych. Andy Murray hasn't been on Tour since guiding Great Britain to the Davis Cup Final while Tomas Berdych was a tournament winner in Shenzhen, but I like Murray's chances to win this Quarter Final.
He was returning John Isner's return effectively on Thursday and so the Berdych serve won't really bother Murray and he also knows exactly what Berdych is expecting through Vallverdu. That appointment has given Murray extra motivation in this kind of match and he is usually a better player for it.
Murray has won five sets in a row against Berdych and I think he will prove too good for him again and earn another shot at trying to take down Novak Djokovic.
Venus Williams - 4.5 games v Alize Cornet: She survived her First Round match in Hong Kong by the skin of her teeth, but Venus Williams was in decent nick last time out and can pick up a big boost for her 'Race to Singapore' for the WTA Tour Finals.
Matches against Alize Cornet have been dominated by Venus Williams in the past and she has won all eight previous sets and most of those have come very comfortably. Only one of those sets have seen Cornet win as many as four games and I think the Frenchwoman has taken advantage of her draw to get to the Quarter Final.
She had been in poor form prior to this week in Hong Kong and I think it will be tough for Cornet to manage Venus Williams if the latter brings her best tennis to the court. Venus Williams does struggle for consistency these days though and so Cornet will have a chance in this one, but I like the motivation Venus is playing with as she looks to ensure a Williams sister is representing in Singapore later this month.
Williams can get the better of Cornet with her superior power but has to keep her unforced errors under control to help her move into the Semi Final behind a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal-Stan Wawrinka Over 23.5 Total Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-7, - 3.92 Units (26 Units Staked, - 15.08 % Yield)
That looks like being a quality ending to the penultimate Masters of the season, although I think you will do very well to look past Novak Djokovic who has not just been winning matches, but dominating opponents over the last couple of weeks.
Precious Ranking points have been earned already by those chasing the World Tour Finals places and it will be the winner of the Kevin Anderson and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga Quarter Final that is the most likely challenger for one of the top eight spots. That makes that match even more important than simply getting to a Masters Semi Final and looks a close one to call.
The picks went 3-2 on Thursday, but it was somewhat disappointing that it wasn't a better day with two poor picks that never looked like covering.
Rafael Nadal-Stan Wawrinka Over 23.5 Total Games: This should be a very close match on Thursday between two players who have both produced some very good tennis at testing times this week. Stan Wawrinka might have lost twelve of his fourteen matches against Rafael Nadal, but he has won the two most recent ones and will be confident he can be the player to snap Novak Djokovic's run of form.
However, there is no doubting that Nadal has picked up some confidence from his run to the Final in Beijing and followed that up with two solid wins here. He has played two big servers so this is a completely different test for Nadal against an opponent who is capable of out-hitting anyone from the back of the court when he is on his game.
Both Nadal and Wawrinka had long weeks last week and I do wonder if fatigue is a potential factor and if there will be enough in the tank to come back from a set down regardless of who loses it. On the other hand, my feeling is that this is a big match for both players who are still looking to prove something to the other big names out on Tour and so I expect both to battle very much to the end.
Stan Wawrinka has won five of the last six sets these players have played against one another so I am surprised he is the slight underdog in this one. I considered backing him to win the match but I do think Nadal is playing very well at the moment and it wouldn't surprise me at all if we have to see a decider between them.
Andy Murray - 2.5 games v Tomas Berdych: Despite both of these players spending as much time in the top five of the World Rankings as they have, this will only be the third time that Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych have met this season. It is Andy Murray who leads 2-0 to level up his career head to head against Berdych and the decision of the Czech man to appoint Dani Vallverdu, Murray's former coach, hasn't worked out for him in this head to head.
Any time you reach the Quarter Finals of a Masters tournament, it does mean you have likely won some good matches in the week and that can be said for both Murray and Berdych. Andy Murray hasn't been on Tour since guiding Great Britain to the Davis Cup Final while Tomas Berdych was a tournament winner in Shenzhen, but I like Murray's chances to win this Quarter Final.
He was returning John Isner's return effectively on Thursday and so the Berdych serve won't really bother Murray and he also knows exactly what Berdych is expecting through Vallverdu. That appointment has given Murray extra motivation in this kind of match and he is usually a better player for it.
Murray has won five sets in a row against Berdych and I think he will prove too good for him again and earn another shot at trying to take down Novak Djokovic.
Venus Williams - 4.5 games v Alize Cornet: She survived her First Round match in Hong Kong by the skin of her teeth, but Venus Williams was in decent nick last time out and can pick up a big boost for her 'Race to Singapore' for the WTA Tour Finals.
Matches against Alize Cornet have been dominated by Venus Williams in the past and she has won all eight previous sets and most of those have come very comfortably. Only one of those sets have seen Cornet win as many as four games and I think the Frenchwoman has taken advantage of her draw to get to the Quarter Final.
She had been in poor form prior to this week in Hong Kong and I think it will be tough for Cornet to manage Venus Williams if the latter brings her best tennis to the court. Venus Williams does struggle for consistency these days though and so Cornet will have a chance in this one, but I like the motivation Venus is playing with as she looks to ensure a Williams sister is representing in Singapore later this month.
Williams can get the better of Cornet with her superior power but has to keep her unforced errors under control to help her move into the Semi Final behind a 63, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal-Stan Wawrinka Over 23.5 Total Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-7, - 3.92 Units (26 Units Staked, - 15.08 % Yield)
Tuesday, 13 October 2015
Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2015 (October 14th)
The tennis season might be winding down, but that doesn't mean there isn't time for more surprising results and not many would surprise more than Albert Ramos beating Roger Federer in the Second Round in Shanghai.
However, Bautista Agut is a fairly simple player and that is usually not enough to beat the very best players on the Tour. He has lost his two previous matches against Milos Raonic including a 62, 76 defeat in St Petersburg last month and it is tough for the Spaniard who has to work hard to hold serve compared with Raonic.
Federer was the defending Champion coming into the tournament and would have wanted a deep run to try and earn back his World Number 2 Ranking, but that looks unlikely now with Andy Murray only defending a Third Round run here and likely to build a big enough lead to maintain his position going into the 2016 season.
That will be of importance when it comes to the Australian Open draw in January as Federer could now be forced to play Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final rather than having the chance to meet him in the Final as he has in the last two Grand Slam events. I don't think it is a particular worry for Federer who will likely be at his best in the second half of the season as he was this year as he looks to add another Grand Slam title to the seventeen he has previously won.
At this stage of his career, the World Ranking will look after itself and Federer doesn't really pay as much attention to that as he does in trying to win a Slam.
It is a disappointing loss for Federer, but the players chasing their place in London for the World Tour Finals have all moved through and remain alive in Shanghai. Marin Cilic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga hold the edge with their places in the Third Round secured, but Richard Gasquet, John Isner, Milos Raonic, Kevin Anderson and Gilles Simon will all be hoping to join them on Wednesday.
Nick Kyrgios + 3.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Nick Kyrgios is a controversial figure on the ATP Tour at the moment, but you can't deny that he brings in the crowds who want to see what he is going to do next. He still has to harness the talent he clearly has in the correct way to really push on as a true contender for the big titles on the Tour and there is no doubting how tough this Second Round match against Kei Nishikori will be.
Consistency and speed around the court are the big attributes that Nishikori has, while he can also be a decent enough returner to give Kyrgios something to think about. Both players are off disappointing three set losses to the same player, Benoit Paire, in Tokyo, but both have also shown some decent form which makes this a very interesting opening match in Shanghai.
Kyrgios had a very impressive First Round win which means he should be very aware of the kind of conditions in Shanghai this year, while his serve does give him a chance to run through some service games very quickly. He can sometimes play the low percentage shot that will get him into trouble against someone like Nishikori who will thrive on keeping the ball in play and wearing down opponents.
However, I also think Kyrgios is flashy enough to hit a few winners off the return of serve and earn his break point chances in this one too. As long as Kyrgios remains mentally focused, which is certainly not always the case, I think he can win at least a set in this one and that might make this number of games being received too appealing to ignore.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: I like one Australian youngster to make a match of it on Wednesday, but I think the other in action will have a more difficult day in the office. Bernard Tomic might have beaten David Ferrer when they last met earlier in the season, but the latter has looked in very good form of late and has to be favoured.
Ferrer might be coming off a 62, 63 loss to Novak Djokovic, but no other player won more games than him against the World Number 1 in Beijing and Ferrer had also won the title in Kuala Lumper the week before. After missing a large chunk of the season with an injury, the fact that the Spaniard is still one of the favourites to book a place at the World Tour Finals shows how well he has done when actually out on court.
The defeat to Djokovic is understandable and Ferrer has been a pretty convincing winner in the other matches he has played the last couple of weeks. When Ferrer is in this kind of form, someone like Bernard Tomic can have a difficult task in front of them to slow him down.
I think Tomic is talented, but he gets too comfortable becoming involved in rallies and I can't say I could favour him to win enough of those against Ferrer. Tomic also doesn't make full use of his height when it comes to the serve and I like Ferrer's chances of getting involved in rallies and eventually taking charge of those which will result in a 75, 64 kind of win for him and another step towards the World Tour Finals.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Jack Sock: A strong week in Shanghai will likely be enough for Tomas Berdych to earn his place in the World Tour Finals and I don't think an early exit in Beijing is too much to worry about. Just two days prior to that loss, Tomas Berdych was winning a delayed Final in Shenzhen so it wasn't a big surprise he was off his game against Pablo Cuevas.
There are no such excuses this week as Berdych would have had plenty of time to recover his energy levels after the early defeat in Beijing. He has been in solid form having won Shenzhen without dropping a set, but early defeats have been something that Berdych has had to deal with in the two tournaments around that title win.
He will have to be on his game if he is going to beat Jack Sock, a player that is perhaps still flying under the radar for casual fans. The serve and big forehand combination is a dangerous one, but Sock's backhand is still a liability at times and that is where the consistent Berdych will have his joy in this match.
Both players will rely on a big serve to set up their service games, but I think Berdych will have enough in the locker to force rallies to go towards the Sock backhand and I like him to find a couple of breaks in a 64, 64 win.
Milos Raonic - 2.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: It was a disappointing loss for Milos Raonic in Beijing last week which might be the fatal blow to his chances of reaching the World Tour Finals. However, Raonic knows there is still a chance for him if he can have three strong tournaments to finish the season beginning with this one in Shanghai.
The Masters events means there is very rarely an 'easy' opening match for the Seeds as they receive a bye into the Second Round. That means they play an opponent who is ready to compete in the conditions and Roberto Bautista Agut is consistent enough to give any player off their game trouble on the court.
However, Bautista Agut is a fairly simple player and that is usually not enough to beat the very best players on the Tour. He has lost his two previous matches against Milos Raonic including a 62, 76 defeat in St Petersburg last month and it is tough for the Spaniard who has to work hard to hold serve compared with Raonic.
That scoreboard pressure builds up and I think Raonic will find a way to earn break points and eventually get through the Spaniard here 76, 64.
Dominic Thiem v Feliciano Lopez: I am a big fan of Dominic Thiem and I am expecting him to push on up the World Rankings next year after a successful 2015 season. He does need to improve on some surfaces, particularly grass, but Thiem has the all court game that certainly looks like producing a top ten player on the Tour and perhaps even more.
He has a big Second Round match against Feliciano Lopez who reached the Quarter Final at the US Open and then the Final in Kuala Lumper so clearly a player in form. However, it is Thiem who has won the three previous matches between the players including both in 2015 and I think he can produce enough quality tennis to maintain that run of wins.
Consistency is still an issue for Thiem who has perhaps lost to some opponents that I might not consider he should be at this stage of his career. I don't think Lopez is a definitely a player he should be beating, but Thiem likes to raise his level against the better players too and I do think he can come through this one in three sets.
Lopez has been in some good form and can be a very dangerous opponent when he is serving well, but Thiem has enjoyed this match up and I'll back him to make it through to the Third Round.
Sam Stosur - 4.5 games v Monica Puig: It hasn't been the most productive part of the season for Sam Stosur, but I still think the veteran Australian can prove too good for Monica Puig in this Second Round match in Hong Kong.
This has regularly been a good match up for Stosur who has beaten Puig three times since the beginning of the 2014 season and she has never lost more than four games in a match in those wins. The strengths of the Stosur game are clear to everyone, but it clearly is a tough proposition for Puig whose defence isn't really good enough on the court.
When she gets on the front foot, Puig is a dangerous player, but Stosur's serve makes it tough for her to get forward on that shot. Puig's game is also very low percentage and that means she is more likely to make mistakes that Stosur can then thrive upon and consolidate with her own serve.
The numbers don't lie when these players meet and the fact is that Puig has won just 2 breaks of serve in her three matches against Stosur. The Australian has won at least 54% of the points on the Puig serve in all of those matches, while Puig has failed to surpass 35% against the Stosur serve.
Neither player can really point to having much more confidence than the other on recent form and I think it might end up being similar to previous matches with Stosur winning this one comfortably enough.
Sam Stosur - 4.5 games v Monica Puig: It hasn't been the most productive part of the season for Sam Stosur, but I still think the veteran Australian can prove too good for Monica Puig in this Second Round match in Hong Kong.
This has regularly been a good match up for Stosur who has beaten Puig three times since the beginning of the 2014 season and she has never lost more than four games in a match in those wins. The strengths of the Stosur game are clear to everyone, but it clearly is a tough proposition for Puig whose defence isn't really good enough on the court.
When she gets on the front foot, Puig is a dangerous player, but Stosur's serve makes it tough for her to get forward on that shot. Puig's game is also very low percentage and that means she is more likely to make mistakes that Stosur can then thrive upon and consolidate with her own serve.
The numbers don't lie when these players meet and the fact is that Puig has won just 2 breaks of serve in her three matches against Stosur. The Australian has won at least 54% of the points on the Puig serve in all of those matches, while Puig has failed to surpass 35% against the Stosur serve.
Neither player can really point to having much more confidence than the other on recent form and I think it might end up being similar to previous matches with Stosur winning this one comfortably enough.
MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 3.42 Units (4 Units Staked, + 85.5% Yield)
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