NFL Week 6 Picks 2022 (October 13-17)

The NFL season is beginning to take shape as we begin Bye Weeks for teams around the League, although we have yet to really see any team take control and separate themselves from the pack.

Most will feel the Buffalo Bills are the team to beat right now, but they can really prove they are the top team in the NFL by beating the Kansas City Chiefs on the road in what is clearly the best game of Week 6 of the 2022 season.

Other than that, I think many could make a case for a number of teams to win the Super Bowl and injuries are going to be a key to the outcome of the season. We have already seen the kind of impact those injuries can have with the Miami Dolphins who have lost two in a row, and so it is best to make hay when the sun is shining.

Onto the Week 6 Picks.

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: Back to back road games are always a tough spot in the NFL, but they become really difficult when a team from the West Coast has to play back to back road games in the early Eastern Time time slot. That is the issue for the San Francisco 49ers (3-2) this week, although they have made a decision to stay on the East Coast following the win over the Carolina Panthers which has helped push the 49ers back above 0.500 for the season.

They are facing another team from the NFC South in Week 6 when the San Francisco 49ers face off against the Atlanta Falcons (2-3), the team with which Kyle Shanahan showed he can be a Head Coach in the NFL having helped get the Falcons to the Super Bowl as Offensive Co-Ordinator.

This is the first time Shanahan will be back in Atlanta with the San Francisco 49ers, but the Head Coach will remind all that this is a business trip and the 49ers can continue to lead the way in the NFC West by winning.

Injuries are not helping the 49ers cause with a number of key Defensive players out of action and more were added to the absentee list last week. At some point this is really going to impact the San Francisco Defensive unit, but I am not sure the Atlanta Falcons will be able to exploit any holes that have been left behind as they look to match up poorly with the 49ers on this side of the ball.

While the Falcons have been able to run the ball efficiently, they are missing Cordarrelle Patterson and now have to face a tough San Francisco Defensive Line which has continued to clamp down on the run. That is likely going to lead to more pressure on Marcus Mariota, who has not been consistent throwing the ball nor has the Receiving threats to pick up for their Quarter Back, and I do think the 49ers can do enough Defensively to contain the Falcons for much of this game.

The absences in the Secondary could be attacking by Marcus Mariota, but I am not convinced that he has the confidence to hurt the 49ers consistently. If he is playing from behind the chains, Mariota is also going to have to deal with plenty of pass rush pressure generated by the San Francisco 49ers and that could lead to mistakes when it comes to throwing into the Secondary.

Unlike the Atlanta Falcons, I do think the San Francisco 49ers will have a balance in their Offensive play-calling that could see them win and cover on the road for a second week in a row.

Jimmy Goroppolo is perhaps not the Quarter Back that can be trusted to win games on his own, but he is surrounded by talent and it will all begin with the 49ers likely running the ball with plenty of success. Jeff Wilson Jr has been a revelation with the ball in his hands and I do think the Running Back can make sure he keeps the 49ers in front of the chains and that only makes life that much more comfortable for a game-manager like Goroppolo.

A clean pocket is likely to be in front of Jimmy Garoppolo for much of the game and the play-action could also be key when he does choose to hit Receivers down the field. There are plenty of threats on the field for the 49ers and all the Quarter Back is asked to do is make sure he gets the ball into their hands and let the skill players show off.

The Atlanta Falcons have been a covering machine to open the season, but they have needed a couple of backdoor covers to keep themselves perfect at the window. This time they are facing a San Francisco team who are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven road games and I do think the balance Offensively will give the 49ers every chance of winning and covering here.

New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers Pick: There is a bond between the two Head Coaches leading out the Green Bay Packers (3-2) and the New York Jets (3-2) for this Week 6 game, but that bond will be placed on the back burner for a few days.

Matt LaFleur and Robert Saleh are close, while Matt's brother Mike is the Offensive Co-Ordinator for the New York Jets. Some familiarity has to be expected between the two Coaching staffs, but the focus for both sets will be in winning this game and avoiding falling back to 0.500.

The Green Bay Packers were beaten in London last Sunday as they blew a big lead and ultimately were stopped on the New York Giants goal-line with time running down. Aaron Rodgers hurt his thumb early in the game, but no one associated with the Packers used that as an excuse and instead they are hoping to find a way to produce with a bit more consistency all around.

There is no doubt that they are work in progress Offensively and Aaron Rodgers is looking for someone to step up and help replace the likes of Davante Adams. Younger players are learning on the job and there have been some breakdown in communication when Rodgers has dropped back to throw down the field.

Green Bay will recognise the kind of test the New York Jets Defensive unit will offer, but they will also be very confident in the Offensive Line as the Packers look for them to set the tone. The Packers are a team who run the ball very well and I do think establishing AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones will be the key for them, while I do think the Packers can find a way to do that against a solid New York Defensive Line.

Aaron Rodgers has been well protected by his Offensive Line, but he has yet to really get the passing game going and so it is important to be playing from third and manageable rather than third and long. If the Packers can run the ball like they know they can, I do think they will give Rodgers a big chance to bounce back from a disappointing loss in London to the Giants last week.

I do have to respect the New York Jets Defensive unit, which has helped the team win three of their last four games, although the Jets have certainly gotten the bounce of the ball. Some of the 'fortune' is playing teams who have inexperienced Quarter Backs behind Center, while the Jets win over the Cleveland Browns continues to leave fans scratching their heads.

At least New York will feel they are more productive now that Zach Wilson has returned as the starting Quarter Back in place of Joe Flacco. He has made the big plays at the right times and that has been very important for the Jets as they have beaten the Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins to move into second place in the AFC East.

It has certainly helped that Zach Wilson when the Jets have been able to run the ball, but they may find it tougher against the Green Bay Packers Defensive Line. They largely limited Saquon Barkley in Week 5 and the Packers will be looking to shut down Breece Hall and Michael Carter and make sure that Wilson is forced to beat them with his arm.

I expect to see some trickery from the Jets, but Wilson has yet to really be comfortable throwing the ball and I do think he is going to have a tough outing. The Packers Secondary have something to prove after allowing the Giants to produce some long drives last week and fight back from a big deficit, but being back at home off a loss should see them much more focused and ready to compete.

Zach Wilson is likely to be under some pressure from the Green Bay pass rush and I do think the Packers will be more focused following their defeat.

Green Bay are 12-3 against the spread in their last fifteen games following a loss, while the New York Jets are 6-15 against the spread in their last twenty-one road games at a team with a winning record. I still am not completely sold on the Jets, despite backing them with a start last week, and I think the Packers can bounce back from a poor day in London by getting back to winning ways.

New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns Pick: The real hope for Cleveland Browns (2-3) fans is that the team have something to play for when Deshaun Watson completes his suspension and can begin life as the Browns Quarter Back. Poor personal decisions have led to a couple of tough years for Watson, but he has a big contract with the Cleveland Browns who expect him to be a huge upgrade at the most important position in the team.

With a couple of different bounces of the ball, the Cleveland Browns would perhaps have had a perfect season to hold onto in Week 6, but at the very least they would have expected to have a winning record at this point. Close losses have let them down, but the Cleveland Browns are looking to bounce back from the latest one when they host the New England Patriots (2-3).

Bill Belichick's first Head Coaching role was with the Cleveland Browns, but he has not really found the same success with the New England Patriots since Tom Brady departed for Tampa Bay. This is another season with a young signal caller, but Mac Jones has been banged up at Quarter Back and it could mean another start for rookie Bailey Zappe.

That has meant the Patriots have had to lean on the run game and the Offensive Line have been pretty happy when it comes to blocking up front. New England are expected to have success on the ground, although the Browns may choose to load the box and see if Bailey Zappe has the confidence to step back and beat the Secondary.

A relatively clean game was played against the Detroit Lions last week so Zappe will have confidence in his ability, although injuries do mean the Patriots could be without key Receivers. The Cleveland Secondary is also stronger than the Lions and so they may feel they can take more chances with a young Quarter Back by sending more men to the line of scrimmage and trying to shut down the Patriots on the ground.

Even clamping down on the run somewhat would be a huge achievement for the Browns considering how badly they have handled ground attacks all season. It would also feel like giving the Browns a big edge, especially as they are likely to have plenty of success on the Offensive side of the ball in what could develop into a shoot out.

Cleveland's own Offensive Line have been able to bully opponents and the Browns have two Running Backs capable of moving the ball on the ground. In recent games the New England Defensive Line has struggled to get on top of the run and I expect Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to have a big day for the home team, while Jacoby Brissett is capable of making plays with his legs too.

Jacoby Brissett should also be playing in a clean pocket with the team likely to be in front of the chains and he may have one or two more holes to exploit in the New England Secondary. I think that could be the key difference on the day, even if Bill Belichick is one of the stronger Defensive minds out there and he is likely going to try and erase one part of the Cleveland Offensive play.

Unlike the other side, the Patriots are unlikely to want to load the box and try and clamp down on the run knowing they are facing a Quarter Back who is experienced. Jacoby Brissett is likely to make one or two more plays than Bailey Zappe and I think that is key to the outcome of an important game for two 2-3 teams in the AFC.

Trusting the Cleveland Browns is not easy when you think of the way they have lost games to the New York Jets and Los Angeles Chargers this season. However, the Patriots are 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six road games and I do think an inexperienced Quarter Back may come up short in this important Week 6 outing.

Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins Pick: This absolutely feels like a square selection in Week 6 as I am expecting the Minnesota Vikings (4-1) to head to Florida and beat the Miami Dolphins (3-2).

As strong as the start to the season has been for the Miami Dolphins, they are going into this one with injuries beginning to take their toll on the team. Losing the starting Quarter Back is unfortunate, but losing the back up too is a blow and the Dolphins are going to give Skylar Thompson his first start.

The young Quarter Back came in for Teddy Bridgewater last week and the lack of preparation probably did not help, although I am not sure Thompson is ready to compete in the NFL. He does have some very strong help on the outside with Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, but there is still pressure on a Quarter Back who has not really been expected to be involved with the starting unit this season.

It would make a massive difference if the Miami Dolphins could run the ball with more consistency than they have managed so far this season, but I am not sure that is going to change here. This week the Dolphins have to try and establish the run against the Minnesota Defensive Line which has held team to 4 yards per carry in their last three games as they have shown improvement when it comes to clamping down on the run.

The Vikings Secondary have been a little vulnerable as they have not gotten much pressure up front, but Skylar Thompson may not be the Quarter Back to expose some of those issues. However, while he may not have the same success that Tua Tagovailoa or Teddy Bridgewater could, I do think he has the Receivers that can win their battles and the Dolphins should have some success when it comes to trying to get into scoring position.

The Dolphins will also feel they are playing the run well enough to at least contain Dalvin Cook in this one and have a chance to get into position for an upset, although there is one key difference between the teams.

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings passing game has been looking good this season and there are problems in the Miami Secondary which look likely to be exploited more consistently than Skylar Thompson and the Miami Dolphins are able to do on the other side of the ball. I do think the Quarter Back will be able to connect with his strong Receiving corps to keep the chains moving and he will also have the quick hit down the field which is difficult for Miami to stop.

Miami simply don't get enough pressure up front to prevent Minnesota from moving the ball consistently and I do think that is a main reason the Vikings will be able to win this game on the road.

It feels like a trap line, which is always a concern, while the Vikings are 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games.

The Dolphins have been impressive at home, but I do think Minnesota match up well with the injury hit home team and I think that will see them win this non-Conference game and cover the mark set.

MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)

Minnesota Vikings - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars + 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Baltimore Ravens - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Arizona Cardinals - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 5: 2-7, - 9.36 Units (17 Units Staked, - 55.05% Yield)

Week 4: 1-0, + 1.84 Units (2 Units Staked, + 92% Yield)

Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

College Football Week 7 Picks 2021 (October 16th)

Another week of College Football is potentially another week to see upsets that are changing the College Football PlayOff situation as we reach the mid-way mark of the regular season.

Last week it was the Alabama Crimson Tide who were knocked from their pedestal and another big Saturday is ready to go.

Florida Gators @ LSU Tigers Pick: It may only be less than two years since the LSU Tigers (3-3) ended the season as National Champions under Head Coach Ed Orgeron, but the 5-5 record in the 2020 season has been followed by a poor start to 2021. The hot seat is warming up considerably underneath Ed Orgeron, who has admitted that he knows full well that the Tigers fans would have been expecting much more from their team than they have seen.

The pressure is on the Head Coach to guide the Tigers out of this difficult time, but injuries have seen them banged up on both sides of the ball and back to back losses to Auburn and Kentucky will have dented the confidence.

No one should disregard the Kentucky Wildcats and the level they are playing at, especially as they remain unbeaten and also beat the Florida Gators (4-2) this season. That defeat likely ends Florida's hopes of returning to the SEC Championship Game with both the Wildcats and Georgia Bulldogs looking too strong in this Division, but Dan Mullen will be looking to play spoiler for the Bulldogs later this season and that means putting some momentum behind the performances.

The Gators will get to fully prepare for the Georgia Bulldogs as they have a Bye Week before that game at the end of the month, and that should mean Florida should be fully focused on this game. They are a big road favourite, but the Gators will also be motivated by the upset home defeat to the LSU Tigers in 2020 and I do think Florida can put their hosts under an immense amount of pressure.

Emory Jones has grown at Quarter Back for the Florida Gators having been given the tough task to replace Kyle Trask, while the future may be bright at this position from what we have seen from Anthony Richardson. We may not need to see a lot of the Quarter Back throwing the ball in this game though and that is largely because the Florida Offensive Line has been very strong up front and been able to open up some gaping holes for the team to rush the ball with considerable success.

Sometimes you do have to wonder if they can bully the big Defensive Lines you will face in the SEC, but the Gators have rushed the ball for 5.6 yards per carry in their last three against SEC opponents and that does not include the almost 250 rushing yards produced in the narrow loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide. That is encouraging from the Florida side of the ball, but they should also feel confident of imposing themselves on a LSU Defensive Line which has struggled to clamp down on the run all season and who have allowed 6.1 yards per carry and over 200 ground yards on average in their last three games.

Running the ball should open things up for Emory Jones or Anthony Richardson behind Center and the LSU Tigers are going to be without a couple of key Defensive Backs in this game. The Tigers have not been able to stop teams finding balance Offensively and I do think the Florida Gators are going to move the ball with success through much of the four Quarters to be played.

The question then becomes whether the Tigers can do enough when they have the ball to keep this one close and I am not convinced that is going to happen. Kayshon Boutte has nine Touchdown receptions this season, but the injury bug has hurt the Tigers here too with the Wide Receiver expected to miss the remainder of 2021 and that is a huge blow for them.

LSU have not been able to run the ball like they would want to and they are not likely to get a lot of change out of the Florida Defensive Line that has given up 3.2 yards per carry this season. The LSU Offensive Line have only created holes for a little over 83 yards per game on the ground at 2.9 yards per carry, and making the Tigers one-dimensional should give Florida a significant edge on this side of the ball.

Things may have been different for the Tigers if Myles Brennan had not been injured before the season began and the Quarter Back may not return in 2021. Max Johnson did start the upset over Florida and has 17 Touchdown passes with just 4 Interceptions this season, but it is going to be difficult to move the ball with consistency against the Gators without his top Receiver.

The Quarter Back has some solid numbers which suggest he will have some joy, but Max Johnson is likely to be under pressure from the strong Florida pass rush, especially if the Tigers leave him in third and long situations. As the level of competition has ramped up, LSU's Offensive Line have not only struggled in run blocking, but they have given up plenty of Sacks too and the feeling is that the Gators will make those plays which stifle drives.

Make no mistake, this is a huge spread for any team to cover, but especially so for a road favourite in a very tough Conference. I have to respect the fact that the Tigers are rarely set as a double digit underdog against any team other than Alabama, but injuries look to have put a muzzle on this team.

The Gators should be able to run the ball right through LSU and I expect the Defensive unit to step up and force Max Johnson into quick throws to stunt any scoring drives.

You also would be foolish to ignore the fact that Florida have not covered in their last five as the road favourite, while LSU are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen as the underdog. However, I do think the Tigers are too short-handed to compete with an improving Florida team and the revenge factor should see the Gators over the edge with a win and a cover in Louisiana.

UCF Knights @ Cincinnati Bearcats Pick: We have yet to see a team outside of the Power 5 Conferences being offered a place in the four team College Football PlayOff, but there is every chance things will change in 2021. After moving up to Number 3 in the latest Rankings, some of the Cincinnati Bearcats (5-0) fanbase will believe their team is in control of their own destiny and the bare minimum expectation is that this team will head off and retain the American Athletic Conference Championship won last season.

Teams in the top ten have been falling regularly, but the Bearcats will know there is plenty to work for them to still do if they are going to be invited into the PlayOffs. Any defeat would end their hopes and Head Coach Luke Fickell has been reminding his players that they can not lose focus despite some big wins already in 2021.

Road wins over the Indiana Hoosiers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish would have been much more highly regarded if those two teams had performed to the level many expected, but Cincinnati earned plenty of style points when blowing out the Temple Owls in their opening Conference game in Week 6. The Bearcats biggest chance to impress remaining on the schedule is the potential game between unbeaten teams when they are due to host the SMU Mustangs in November, but Luke Fickell won't be happy if his players are looking too far ahead.

Luke Fickell has been really impressive since taking over as Head Coach here and his Bearcats team are 36-6 since the beginning of the 2018 team. Last season they had an unbeaten regular season before a narrow loss to Georgia in the Bowl Game and now they are big favourites to beat a UCF Knights (3-2) team which is in transition.

The last time a non-Power 5 team had a legitimate claim to a place in the PlayOffs, it was the unbeaten UCF Knights in 2017 and 2018 who were ignored. The school produced a 25-1 record in those two seasons and had won twenty-five games in a row before losing to the LSU Tigers in the Bowl.

Gus Malzahn has left the SEC to take over as Head Coach here in replacement of Josh Heupel who has joined that Conference with the Tennessee Volunteers. Losses to Louisville and Navy will have hurt the momentum, but the Knights did beat the East Carolina Pirates in Week 6 and will at least arrive in Ohio with some belief in being able to cause an upset.

It would have been a hugely challenging task to have success even if the Knights were fully healthy, but Dillon Gabriel has been lost at Quarter Back and that means Mikey Keene and his inexperience playing in a hostile environment. He did not play badly in leading the win over the Pirates in Week 6, but this is a completely different challenge against a Bearcats Defensive unit which has plenty of experience returning and who have been producing at a high level.

You have to believe the game-plan will be to make Keene beat them through the air and the Bearcats have been able to clamp down on the run throughout this season. The Knights Offensive Line have played well, but Cincinnati will believe they can win in the trenches, especially if loading the line and forcing Mikey Keene to have to make reads and go through his progressions at Quarter Back.

The Knights may have some success, but the inexperienced Quarter Back will have to make the plays and I am not sure he will be able to move the ball with consistency against this Cincinnati Secondary. The Bearcats can put a strong pass rush together and keeping the Knights in obvious passing Downs will be key for them to get off the field and give the ball to an Offense which has been looking very productive.

Cincinnati are much more experienced Offensively than their counterparts with the Knights, especially in the Quarter Back room where Desmond Ridder continues to impress. He will be backed up by Jerome Ford at Running Back and the Knights have seen their Defensive Line give up some big plays on the ground as the level of competition has increased, which is only encouraging for the Bearcats who have produced 4.9 yards per carry.

Keeping the team in front of the chains has made Cincinnati dangerous and Desmond Ridder has 12 Touchdown passes with 2 Interceptions thrown. The Offensive Line has protected their Quarter Back effectively and the Knights have not been able to generate a pass rush that is likely to rattle Ridder and that balance could see the Bearcats pull away and put another statement win on the board.

I do think Cincinnati are capable of covering this number and it is interesting to hear Desmond Ridder speak about the blow out defeat the Bearcats had at unbeaten UCF in 2018. In the two strong UCF seasons in 2017 and 2018, they beat Cincinnati by 28 and then 25 points and the fact is that the Bearcats haven't forgotten that and are likely going to earn some revenge for those losses.

It should mean they keep their foot on the gas and even the game coming up in Week 8 at the Navy Midshipmen should not be a major reason to not want to embarrass what has been their main rival in this Conference.

The home team is 5-1 against the spread in their last six in this series, while the Knights have failed to cover in their last four road games and are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten Conference games.

There is no doubting how big this spread is, but the Bearcats are motivated to remind the College Football PlayOff Committee about their aspirations and suitability to be involved in the post-season deciders to find a National Champion. That, coupled with the blow outs suffered in 2017 and 2018 that haven't been forgotten, should see the home team play hard until the very end of this game and I think the Cincinnati Bearcats will have the balance Offensively and the power Defensively to cover the mark set.

Michigan State Spartans @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: Not many were expecting the kind of improvements we have seen from the Michigan State Spartans (6-0) in 2021, but Head Coach Mel Tucker has clearly got the team working for him in his second season at the helm. Mel Tucker has only overseen seven wins in his first two seasons as a Head Coach, but he is one win away from matching that total this season, although the demands of his team is to not lose focus and continue to improve.

The surprising start coupled with some of the top teams falling means the Spartans are back in the top ten of the Rankings, but the last time they were Ranked as high as this did not end well. That was in 2016 under Mark Dantonio and the Ranking sparked a long losing run, something the Spartans will be looking to avoid with some very tough games coming up.

Michigan State fans will be looking for the team to have their most wins in a single season since 2017 when they secured ten, but the Spartans had been just 16-21 in their last three seasons before this surprising beginning. Three road wins have been secured and the Spartans are 3-0 in the Big Ten East, although they have to make sure they are not overlooking this opponent with the big game with the Michigan Wolverines next on deck.

However, that is coming after a Week 8 Bye and the Spartans are the road favourites to remain unbeaten when they visit the disappointing Indiana Hoosiers (2-3). Tom Allen has led Indiana to eight wins in 2019 and he oversaw a 6-2 record in the shortened 2020 season, while they were expected to challenge the likes of Ohio State in this Division, but instead it is going to be a tough task to reach the six wins needed to make it three Bowl Games in succession.

A vastly experienced Indiana team returned in 2021, but they may be without Michael Penix Jr at Quarter Back. Coming out of a Bye will have given Indiana has much time as they need to get Michael Penix Jr ready, but there will have been a lot of soul searching too after the Hoosiers were blown out by the Penn State Nittany Lions without scoring a point.

If Michael Penix Jr cannot go, it will be Jack Tuttle taking the keys for the Offensive unit and this is a Quarter Back with limited experience at this level. The positive for Jack Tuttle is that he will be throwing into a Michigan State Secondary which has given up some big yardage throughout the season, but the negative is that the Spartans Defensive Line could put all the pressure on the Quarter Back's shoulders.

Teams have had considerable success throwing against the Secondary and that is one of those areas that Mel Tucker would like to see his Spartans team improve if they are going to challenge for the Big East Division. However, Michigan State have been able to clamp down on the run and force teams to become one-dimensional against them and the feeling is that they are going to be able to do the same with Indiana.

The Hoosiers Offensive Line have not been able to get a lot of consistency from their rushing Offense and putting Jack Tuttle behind the chains is going to mean he is dealing with what has been a fierce Michigan State pass rush. That is when the inexperience may really show and it is where the Spartans Defensive unit can make some big plays and give their team every chance of winning this game and covering the spread.

Most Michigan State fans will accept that bigger tests are to come for them, but the games that have been completed has underlined the kind of balance that the Spartans have had Offensively. That is so important to teams who want to go on and win Divisions and it makes it tough to believe this Indiana Defensive unit can slow down the Spartans.

Payton Thorne has been consistent at Quarter Back and the Spartans Offensive Line have opened up big holes for Kenneth Walker to exploit. The latter arrived in a transfer from Wake Forest and had over 1100 rushing yards for the Demon Deacons and put those up at 5.4 yards per carry, and Walker has come in here to produce 913 yards in 2021 at 7.1 yards per clip.

Kenneth Walker has 9 Touchdowns on the ground and he is facing an Indiana Defensive Line which has allowed an average of 4.3 yards per carry in their last three games. I expect the Spartans to impose themselves in the trenches and that will only make that much more comfortable for Payton Thomas who has almost 1600 passing yards that go along with 14 Touchdowns thrown and just 2 Interceptions.

With very little pass rush being produced, the Indiana Secondary have been carved up at times and I do think Payton Thomas can back up Kenneth Walker and give the Spartans the balance to be very difficult to stop when they have the ball. This should give them every chance to cover as the road underdog and earn revenge for an embarrassing 24-0 home loss to the Hoosiers in 2020.

That motivation cannot be ignored even if Indiana have been very successful with rest under Tom Allen's guidance as Head Coach. The Hoosiers have covered in their last four off a Bye Week, and they are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten home games, but they are only 3-10-1 against the spread in their last fourteen as the home underdog.

Add in the fact that Indiana are 0-7 against the spread when facing an opponent who not only have revenge on their minds, but who have won back to back games going into that revenge meeting. At the same time, Michigan State are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine as Conference favourites of less than 6 points with revenge on their side and I do think the Spartans can be picked as the road favourite here.

Michigan State have covered in their last six as the road favourite and they are 4-0-2 against the spread in 2021. The favourite has also improved to 12-4 against the spread in the last sixteen between these rivals for the Old Brass Spittoon with Indiana covering as 7 point road favourites last season.

I think the Bye Week coming up should mean we see the very best of the Spartans and I also believe they are capable of making the big plays on both sides of the ball to remain unbeaten. They can then prepare for the huge game with their big rivals Michigan on Halloween weekend at the end of the month with plenty of confidence in how they are performing.

Texas A&M Aggies @ Missouri Tigers Pick: This might not have been the season the Texas A&M Aggies (4-2) fans would have been hoping for, but the team are well on course for another Bowl appearance under Jimbo Fisher. They would have been hoping to challenge for the SEC West Divisional title, but the Aggies started off poorly in the Conference.

The entire atmosphere around the team will have changed in Week 7 when the Texas A&M Aggies upset the Alabama Crimson Tide at College Station. Even with that win behind them, the Aggies are still an underdog to make the SEC Championship Game, but it will give the team something to build upon as they get set to face a former Big 12 rival in the latest Conference game.

A trip to Columbia is never going to be easy, but the Missouri Tigers (3-3) are just 0-2 in Conference games and were blown out by the Tennessee Volunteers in their first home SEC game. The Tigers have previously won the SEC East since joining this Conference, but they have been beaten by the Kentucky Wildcats and the focus for the team is reaching six wins and making sure they eligible for a Bowl Game in December.

One of the main issues that have troubled the Missouri Tigers has been stopping teams from putting up big points and that has put a lot of pressure on the Offensive side of the ball to keep up on the scoreboard. They have tried to do their best to do that and Tyler Badie is one of the top Running Backs in the nation at this level- he has an ability to not only pound the ball on the ground, but Badie is a real threat catching the ball out of the backfield and his all-purpose yards and Touchdowns scored are impressive.

The Tigers have been pretty good on this side of the ball, but the Offensive Line will have a tough task in imposing themselves on an Aggies Defensive Line which has held teams to 3.9 yards per carry as they have entered Conference play. With the performances of the Tigers Offensive Line, the feeling is that they will have some success, but it won't be consistent and that will mean needing a bit more from Quarter Back Connor Bazelak.

He has played pretty well this season, but Connor Bazelak will want to improve on this Touchdown-Interception ratio which stands at 12-5 so far this season. Connor Bazelak has shown improvement from 2020 and he has been well protected by his Offensive Line, while I do think there are considerable holes in the Aggies Secondary that can be exploited.

Avoiding mistakes will be key for Connor Bazelak in a game that could see both teams move the ball up and down the field with success.

Texas A&M will have bigger expectations on their shoulders after the win over the Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 6, but Jimbo Fisher will be looking for his players to remain focused having already been beaten by Arkansas and Mississippi State in SEC play this season. They will still have backup Quarter Back Zach Calzada leading the Offensive unit having produced his best game of 2021 since coming in for Hayes King.

Zach Calzada had struggled in the first two games started, but he had a strong showing against the Crimson Tide and will be looking to pick up from where he left off. The benefit for the young Quarter Back is that the Aggies Offensive Line should have their way with the Missouri Defensive Line that has struggled to contain the run all season and being in third and manageable spots should see Texas A&M have plenty of success.

Isaiah Spiller might have less than 500 rushing yards and only three Touchdowns, but I think he will have a strong outing in this one. The Aggies are very much expected to be involved in a back and forth with the Missouri Tigers, but this may still be too many points for the home team to be receiving.

The emotional win over the Alabama Crimson Tide will be difficult to replicate for the Aggies and it is hard to see them laying so many points on the road considering the two SEC defeats already suffered. This is more of a selection that is going against the spot for the Aggies, despite the fact that the Missouri Tigers have failed to cover in their last six at home.

This feels like a game that will see both teams have Offensive success and, with that in mind, it is hard to lay more than a Touchdown worth of points with the road team. Missouri have not covered this season, which is a worry, but I think they can score enough points to stay with an Aggies team that may find it tough to back up what is arguably the biggest win they will have this season and especially with the SEC West title likely beyond them anyway.

Kentucky Wildcats @ Georgia Bulldogs Pick: There won't be many who will be surprised to see the Georgia Bulldogs (6-0) at the top of the SEC East, despite the fact they lost their four season grip on the Division in 2020. Now they may be the favourites to win the SEC Championship and represent the Conference in the College Football PlayOff, while a win in Week 7 will put Georgia in a very strong position to win the SEC East before heading into a Bye Week.

Most would have figured the Week 9 game against the Florida Gators would be the biggest obstacle between the Bulldogs and the Divisional title, but the 2021 season has offered up a surprise. That team is the one that will be visiting Athens on Saturday when the Kentucky Wildcats (6-0) arrive with an unbeaten record and the same 4-0 record within the Conference as the Bulldogs.

If they can somehow pick up the upset as a huge road underdog, the Wildcats will be in pole position to win the SEC East and I think Mark Stoops' team would be expected to do enough to win the Division considering what is left on the schedule. Some may feel Kentucky could have built their record on a weak schedule, but the Wildcats will head into Week 7 off the back of consecutive wins over the Florida Gators and LSU Tigers and Mark Stoops needs to be given credit having rejuvenated this school on the Football field having led them to at least seven wins in four straight seasons before the 5-6 record last season.

In saying all that, this is a massive challenge for the Kentucky Wildcats who are facing what many consider to be the best Defensive unit in the SEC and very arguably the best Defensive unit in College Football. The Bulldogs have allowed a total of 33 points in their six games played this season and only 23 points have been given up in their four Conference wins.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with the Kentucky Wildcats having belief in themselves to challenge those Defensive numbers, but it is a tough match up for them. Much of their success is based on a strong ground game, but the Wildcats are facing a Defensive Line that has been clamping down on the run for fun all season and it is going to be a tall task for Chris Rodriguez Jr to help the Wildcats get much more out of this Defensive Line than any other team has managed.

Will Levis has played well at Quarter Back and has been managing games well, but the problem will be that he will have to do a lot more than he is comfortable with if the Wildcats are struggling to run the ball. The Quarter Back has thrown 11 Touchdown passes, but Will Levis has added 6 Interceptions to that and now will have to be aware of the Georgia Secondary which have been able to make the big plays and turn the ball over.

Nothing we have seen so far this season suggests Kentucky are going to have a lot more Offensive joy than the other opponents that Georgia have played and I do think they are going to have drives stall. Short fields can be produced by the Bulldogs Defensive unit with their ability to force Quarter Backs into pushing too hard and making mistakes, and it is a particular worry for the Kentucky Wildcats that they have scored a total of 3 points in their last two games against the Bulldogs.

It has to be part of the reason the Bulldogs are being asked to cover such a big spread and the question is whether Georgia can produce enough points to do that. The Defensive unit should play their part, while the Bulldogs Offensive Line have been bullying teams up front and helping the team put up some big numbers on the ground.

I have to respect the performance level of the Kentucky Defensive Line, which is talented, but they have been challenged a little more in recent games. The Florida Gators Offensive Line had some success establishing the run and the feeling is that the Georgia Offensive Line is stronger and can get their talented Running Back corps going.

That is the foundation from which Georgia can play their best Offensive Football, even with a potential backup Quarter Back being behind Center. Stetson Bennett is experienced at this level and has played well enough over the last two weeks, but it is a clear drop off from JT Daniels who looks like he may be sidelined at least one more week with a chance to get healthy in the Bye.

Stetson Bennett has not needed to do a lot aside from making sure his Running Backs have gotten the ball in his last two starts, but he did produce 231 passing yards in the win over Auburn in Week 6. Managing the game is key and Bennett has 8 Touchdown passes with 2 Interceptions this season having struggled in his last few starts in 2020, and I expect the Quarter Back to have time in the pocket as long as the Georgia Bulldogs continue to smash teams on the ground.

The Kentucky Secondary has played pretty well and only given up an average of 210 yards per game through the air in their last three. However, they do allow a large completion rate and the feeling is that the Bulldogs can establish the run and not need Stetson Bennett to make too many plays to get their side of the scoreboard moving.

This could be a fun game if the Wildcats are at their best and they have covered in their last two games against the Georgia Bulldogs, although they have lost those games by an average of 16 points per game. The 21 point defeat here two years ago is the closest margin of victory in the last four games between these teams in Athens, but I think this Bulldogs team is capable of doing a little better and covering the decreasing spread.

Mark Stoops is a Head Coach that also needs plenty of respect and he does tend to get the best out of his Kentucky team which means they are a very competitive underdog. However, Georgia have been very good as a favourite under Kirby Smart and the feeling is that the Bulldogs will win in the trenches on both sides of the ball, which ultimately will see their team making the big plays to eventually pull clear of a massive mark.

TCU Horned Frogs @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: He didn't just enter the season as the Heisman favourite, but many believed Spencer Rattler would be the first Quarter Back taken in the next NFL Draft. Things have not worked out even close to expectation levels and Rattler was benched in Week 6 after the Oklahoma Sooners (6-0) fell into a big hole against the Texas Longhorns in the Red River Rivalry.

Fans had already begun to tire of some of the Rattler inconsistencies and they have been hoping Lincoln Riley would have turned to Caleb Williams sooner than he has. But now the level of expectation around Caleb Williams will have gone through the roof after the top Quarter Back prospect coming out of High School helped the Sooners rally and remain unbeaten in their late victory over the Longhorns.

Lincoln Riley has yet to state who will be the starting Quarter Back for the Sooners, but at this stage it would be a bigger surprise if Caleb Williams is not the choice of the Head Coach. Being at home will help Williams who will be dealing with a new level of expectation after the strong outing in the win over Texas, while Spencer Rattler has to be wondering what the future will hold for him.

The Sooners will be hosting the TCU Horned Frogs (3-2) who have been inconsistent this season and who will need to avoid a second Big 12 loss if they harbour real ambitions of playing in the Championship Game. Head Coach Gary Patterson has had to deal with injury, but they have snapped a run of back to back defeats in Week 6 and will be looking to carry the momentum over to this game.

His Defensive mindset should help in preparing the Horned Frogs to try and slow down the Oklahoma Sooners Offensive unit, while Gary Patterson will feel he can give Caleb Williams a couple of looks that may confuse him. However, this has not been the kind of Horned Frogs Defense that we have become used to seeing under Patterson and you do have to wonder if they have the confidence to stop the Sooners moving the ball up and down the field.

Caleb Williams is a dual-threat Quarter Back, which will make it that much tougher for the Horned Frogs to contain the Oklahoma Offense, and I do think the Sooners could have one of their more consistent outings. The Offensive Line is likely going to be bully the TCU Defensive Line around, especially as the latter have allowed an average of just shy of 280 yards per game on the ground in their last three games.

Those yards have been picked up at an eye-watering 6.0 yards per carry and there is little doubt that the Oklahoma Sooners will be able to exploit those holes and especially with a Quarter Back like Caleb Williams behind Center. With the Sooners likely operating in third and manageable spots, Williams is likely going to have a strong showing throwing the ball too and I do think the Sooners are going to put up some big points in this game.

The question then becomes whether the TCU Horned Frogs can keep up with their hosts, but that will be much more difficult if both Max Duggen and Zach Evans are unable to suit up. Both are questionable for the game, but at this point you would expect the Horned Frogs to give their starting Quarter Back and starting Running Back all of the time they need to make sure they are ready to go.

Without them you would expect the Sooners to pull away for a pretty comfortable win, but even with both Duggan and Evans in the line up, it won't be easy for the Horned Frogs to have a consistent success Offensively. The Sooners have given up some big points in their last couple of games, but they do look to match up pretty well with what the Horned Frogs are going to want to do in this game.

TCU like to run the ball and use that to open up the passing lanes, but the Oklahoma Sooners have a tough Defensive Line and are more exploitable through the air. The Defensive Line should be able to make enough plays against Zach Evans or his replacement to at least put TCU in a difficult position to sustain drives and that may lead to a good looking win for the Sooners.

I would expect Max Duggan to have some big throws, but the excitement around the Oklahoma Sooners should see the fans make it difficult for TCU to sustain their drives. The Sooners should have too many points for a TCU team who have lost to the SMU Mustangs and Texas Longhorns already this season and three of the last four wins for the Oklahoma Sooners in this series have come by 19 or more points.

The favourite is now 5-1 against the spread in the last six in this series.

The Oklahoma Sooners are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten Big 12 Conference games, while the TCU Horned Frogs are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven road games as the underdog. In what should be a high-scoring game, the Sooners should have the consistency to finish off more drives with Touchdowns than the TCU Horned Frogs and that should see them pull clear for a strong win.

MY PICKS: Florida Gators - 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bearcats - 21 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Michigan State Spartans - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Missouri Tigers + 11 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Georgia Bulldogs - 21.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Oklahoma Sooners - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Texas Tech Red Raiders - 18 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet

Mississippi State Bulldogs + 17.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Iowa State Cyclones - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Week 6: 3-3, - 0.27 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 5: 5-6, - 1.41 Units (11 Units Staked, - 12.82% Yield)

Week 4: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)

Week 2: 7-3, + 3.45 Units (10 Units Staked, + 34.50% Yield)

Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 8 Picks 2021 (October 16-18)

The second international break of the 2021/22 season is in the books and that means we have a month of domestic and European Football coming up before the final two week break until March.

Fans will be glad to have the Premier League back, but I am hoping it is going to be a much more productive week for my Fantasy Football team than the last couple of weeks have been. Missing out on my Captain has hurt, but I will get into that further down this thread.

This round of Premier League games will be played from Saturday through to Monday before the Match Day 3 fixtures of the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League are played during the week. The deadline for the Fantasy Premier League game will be Saturday this week, but it will be a Friday night deadline in GameWeek 9.

It hasn't been six months since we heard from broadcasters and the Premier League about how their opposition to the European Super League was all about backing the fans and making sure they did not lose their game.

Anyone with a semblance of reality would not have taken that at face value, but if you didn't, the actions from the League and their broadcast partners have made it clear how little they truly care about match going fans. The product was going to be harmed by the Super League and that would have impacted the money the League have been earning and it is clear that remains the main motivation factor for all involved.

The fans were missed in a season where the Premier League was largely played behind closed doors, but for the second time in four months the fixture announcement date has been missed. At the time of writing the December and January fixture list, which was supposed to be announced on Monday has still not been handed out to fans who will need to make travel arrangements at a traditionally very busy time of the year.

To miss the deadline by a day or two is forgivable to some extent, but it has been almost a week since the date they are supposed to let us all know when games are going to be played. The broadcasters and the League should be absolutely ashamed of themselves and the lack of respect for fans truly does grate on me.

But of course, the Super League is the evil and the Premier League are there for the fans right?

Watford v Liverpool Pick: The October international break is behind us and there are now four rounds of Premier League fixtures to be played before the November internationals.

The opening Premier League game of this weekend sees Watford take on Liverpool.

Unsurprisingly Watford have become the first Premier League club to part with their manager as Xisco Munoz has been replaced by Claudio Ranieri. This feels like a risky move from Watford after the way Ranieri's time with Leicester City ended and the veteran manager will be under pressure to deliver despite a really tough stretch of fixtures to come.

Watford's owners have shown they have little time for patience so Claudio Ranieri could go into the November internationals feeling nervous if his team have not produced results against Liverpool, Everton, Southampton and Arsenal who have to be played before that two week break.

The opening fixture looks the most difficult for a Watford team that have been struggling at both ends of the field. They were fortunate to avoid a third straight defeat at Vicarage Road when fighting back for a point against Newcastle United, but it will be very difficult to contain a Liverpool team that have been scoring goals for fun away from home.

Diogo Jota would be a miss for the visitors, but Roberto Firmino has been training back in Liverpool and is a ready-made replacement.

They are unlikely to miss a beat and Liverpool have scored at least three times in all 5 away games played this season in all competitions. Liverpool have scored at least twice in 8 away games in succession and it is going to be a big ask for Watford to keep their visitors at bay in this one.

Two seasons ago Watford did beat Liverpool 3-0 here and ended the latter's unbeaten start to the Premier League season. Fans will be hoping for a repeat of that situation, but I am not sure Claudio Ranieri will be able to work with the first team for as long as he would like to earn a result in this one.

The first goal will be huge, but if Liverpool are able to score that, I can see them being far too strong for Watford and having too many goals within their squad to avoid any upset.

Watford may be looking to impress their new manager, but the defensive performances of the last couple of games before the international break have to be concerning. Their opponents should be able to expose any uncertainty at the back and I expect Liverpool put a strong win on the board before a big week in which they visit La Liga Champions Atletico Madrid ahead of a trip to Old Trafford.

Aston Villa v Wolves Pick: This is a big derby game in the Midlands as Aston Villa host Wolves with both teams showing improved form and results between the September and October international breaks.

The momentum may have been lost through the break, but both managers won't be looking for excuses ahead of this fixture. Aston Villa may be without a couple of key players that would have been involved in the South American World Cup Qualifiers that were completed on Thursday, but this is something beyond their control.

There is still enough quality in the squad to believe they can win this game, but it will be a tough task for Aston Villa. Good performances at Old Trafford and the new Tottenham Hotspur Stadium will be encouraging, but Aston Villa have struggled to create big chances at home in the League this season.

It might be surprising to read that considering they have scored 6 goals at Villa Park in three Premier League games, but Aston Villa will want to be a little more consistent in the kind of chances they are creating. Doing that against Wolves will not be easy considering the defensive performances the visitors have produced in the top flight.

Bruno Lage has been struggling to find the balance between attack and defence though and 3 wins from 4 Premier League games have come behind solid defensive performances at the expense of the attacking displays we saw in August. The new manager will still believe he has work to do to really get this Wolves playing in the way he wants, but they don't give up many chances and remain tough to beat.

Recent games between Aston Villa and Wolves have been very competitive and there has not been a lot between them. They shared a single goal in the two Premier League games played last season, while at least one of the teams have failed to score in each of the last 3 between the local(ish) rivals.

An early goal could change the entire complexion of the game, but I do think both Aston Villa and Wolves have shown enough defensively to believe a single goal may be enough to win this. Aston Villa have only conceded once at home and Wolves have only conceded once on their travels in the top flight this season and the feeling is that one of these teams will fail to hit the back of the net on Saturday.

Picking a winner is not that easy, but I will look for this one to be very tight and very competitive until the end and goals may not be on the agenda as the layers tend to believe.

Leicester City v Manchester United Pick: Brendan Rodgers and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer are not likely to be on any hot seat as managers of Leicester City and Manchester United respectively, but the next month could see things change if results do not go the way they would like.

There is some pressure on both to earn better results and so this fixture out of the international break has plenty riding on it.

Some Manchester United fans may feel it is harsh to question the manager- the team are only 2 points behind leaders Chelsea after all!

However, you have to take an honest look at the results and say Manchester United earning 14 points from a possible 21 is an underachievement. They have only played one team that is currently higher than 9th in the Premier League table and Manchester United have been struggling to create chances and score goals in recent games which has to be a real worry.

Huge games are coming up with a double header against Atalanta in the Champions League to come before the November international break. Around that, Manchester United have the likes of Leicester City, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City to come in the Premier League too and a run of negative results will have more questions for the manager.

Brendan Rodgers should have more time considering his successes with Leicester City, but he is also going to know that his team has underachieved to this point. The fixtures coming up look kinder than those faced by Manchester United, but Leicester City have been struggling defensively and you do have to wonder if they are going to be vulnerable to the Manchester United counter attack.

Getting on the front foot may still be most appealing for Leicester City who could be facing an opponent missing their two first choice centre halves. Raphael Varane is almost certainly out, while Harry Maguire is a big doubt, and Manchester United have looked vulnerable when teams come at them with the speed that Leicester City are likely to employ too.

All 3 games between these teams last season finished with at least three goals shared out and it is hard to believe either of these will be able to contain the other. My lean is that Manchester United will find a way to earn a big result to just get them back on track, but Leicester City are likely to play their part too and I would not be surprised if there are at least three goals shared out again.

Manchester City v Burnley Pick: A goalless draw with Southampton was the outcome of the last Manchester City Premier League game at the Etihad Stadium, but it would be a huge surprise if they drop more points on Saturday.

A team that is creating plenty of chances should be motivated to return to Premier League action with a big win after showing resiliency to come away from Anfield with a 2-2 draw two weeks ago. Under Pep Guardiola, Manchester City have regularly taken teams to the sword at the Etihad Stadium and Manchester City have scored at least five goals in 5 of their last 6 here in all competitions.

Usually you would say that is unsustainable, but Burnley fans will be the first to point out that Manchester City are capable of doing that on a regular basis.

You couldn't blame them for thinking that way as Burnley look to avoid a 5th consecutive 5-0 defeat in this Stadium- Burnley fans may be worried when noting that the two Manchester City home wins in the Premier League have both been 5-0 wins too.

Burnley have not made the best start to the season, but they are unbeaten in their last couple of Premier League games. However, they are struggling for balance and this has routinely been a very difficult opponent for them to face.

Any point will be a bonus, but you can't ignore how often Burnley have ended up being blown away by Manchester City. Considering that history and the big wins and host of goals Manchester City are scoring, you have to believe the home team will record another comfortable win over this opponent.

Norwich City v Brighton Pick: For much of last season, Brighton were underachieving in terms of the kind of points they could have earned if finishing off their top performances with the results they deserved. This season they are flying, but the feeling is that Brighton have perhaps been a little more fortunate at times and they look plenty short to win here.

A late goal saw them beat Brentford in West London, while they came from behind to beat Burnley at Turf Moor, but the underlying numbers suggest Brighton were fortunate to do so in both cases. Add in the late, late goal to salvage a draw with Crystal Palace and you do have to wonder if the price for an away win would have been much higher if Brighton had 2 points from a possible 9 away from home rather than 7.

In saying all that, Norwich City are about as poor a team that we have seen in the Premier League on their early performances. They don't score enough goals and they concede far too many which suggests it is going to be another season in which the fans have to suffer before returning to the Championship.

A point at Burnley two weeks ago will have raised hopes, but Norwich City have lost 8 home Premier League games in a row and they are a team that needs to score the first goal to build some confidence. To be fair to Daniel Farke, Norwich City have had three tough home games this season and they have played pretty well at times, but been undone by defensive mistakes.

Brighton are capable of exposing those mistakes themselves, but this is a team that can struggle for goals at times and I still feel that is going to hold them back. They can create chances, but Brighton have also given up some big opportunities away from home which may offer Norwich City some encouragement and potentially see them earn another positive result.

There is plenty to like about Brighton and they are more than capable of winning here, but they are short and you do have to feel that one Norwich City goal would be enough to earn a result. They have shown enough creativity at home to think they can do that and it might be a rare time to back Norwich City to at least avoid a defeat, although there are likely going to be some dicey moments throughout the ninety minutes before getting to that outcome.

Southampton v Leeds United Pick: There are always going to be stretches when the fixture list looks tough to manage, but the key for teams is to make sure they get themselves through those matches and then be ready to pick up points when the games being played are more manageable.

Both Southampton and Leeds United will feel they have had some difficult fixtures early in the 2021/22 season, but it is the latter who have gotten off the winless mark. An important victory over Watford two weeks ago could give Leeds United a spark and I do think they can make a serious move up the League table over the next month.

Marcelo Bielsa will be hoping that Kalvin Phillips and Patrick Bamford are soon going to be available, but Leeds United could be without Raphinha this weekend which is a blow.

Even then, they may be heading to the south coast to face Southampton at the right time even if Ralph Hasenhuttl's men are playing much better than their 17th place position may suggest. However, James Ward-Prowse and Che Adams could both be missing for the home team and that is serious impact on Southampton's ability to get the better of a Leeds United team that can create plenty of chances.

There are questions for Leeds United to answer defensively, but I am not sure Southampton will ask them in the manner they would have done with those two players in the line up. Southampton have been lacking a little consistency in the final third in recent games and I do think this Leeds United team will play with a forward thinking approach that produced rewards in their wins over Southampton last season.

Goals always change games and the first one is going to be very important in this one, but Leeds United have shown enough in the final third to think they can build on the win over Watford. The fans will hope their attacking players can return soon, but this is a team with decent depth in forward areas and I think Leeds United can be backed on the Asian Handicap as the unexpected underdog.

Brentford v Chelsea Pick: One West London derby is being played earlier in the day in the Championship, but the main focus in this part of the country will be on Brentford's Premier League fixture hosting European Champions Chelsea.

There is plenty to like about the approach Brentford have taken to their first season the top flight since the late 1940s and they are well on their way to securing another Premier League season. Wins over West Ham United and Wolves and the epic draw with Liverpool shows that Brentford are more than capable of competing at this level and they will be particularly encouraged by the improvement in the final third.

Personally I was concerned by the lack of chances and thus the lack of goals being scored by Brentford, but they have looked much better in the last month. They fully deserved their results in their last 3 Premier League games and Brentford scoring 7 goals in that time will only make the entire squad feel very confident about their ability.

This is a big test for Brentford and I have no doubt that they will appreciate that, but I do think a lot of the key players have been home preparing for this fixture. It is a direct contrast to Chelsea who have had a number of players away for international duty and travel and injury can be picked up.

Romelu Lukaku's muscle issue has to be a concern for Chelsea fans considering he missed Belgium's second Nations League fixture, while Thiago Silva and Antonio Rudiger could both be missing too. It would leave Chelsea perhaps a little exposed, but I don't think Thomas Tuchel will approach this game in the same way as Liverpool and so I do think it will be more difficult for Brentford to break them down.

However, Brentford can be competitive as they will not offer up a lot of spaces of their own and they have been pretty good defensively this season. Liverpool exposed some of the vulnerabilities, but that is a team that have been attacking every team they have played with considerable success and Chelsea are not going to be as comfortable taking the risks that Jurgen Klopp's men did.

The performances prior to the October international break will be really encouraging for Brentford and it is a level that will give Chelsea some problems. Chelsea will also feel they are playing well enough to win here and I think this is going to be a fascinating fixture.

Brentford look a little under-rated and I would be surprised if Chelsea are able to blow past them. The Bees will be very difficult to beat in front of their own fans and I do think the full goal start on the Asian Handicap is hard to ignore for a team that has picked up 7 points from a possible 9 in the Premier League.

I have to respect the performance levels of this Chelsea team, but they have been a little inconsistent in the final third as they are still looking to find the right balance with Romelu Lukaku leading the line. With that in mind, Chelsea may not score the goals to cover and Brentford could have every chance of earning a positive result to keep the fans believing in a special season developing.

Everton v West Ham United Pick: After a hugely successful time with Everton, David Moyes is going to be afforded plenty of respect by the home fans when bringing his West Ham United team to town.

This is a big game for two clubs that will feel they can push into the top six and overtake the likes of Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal in joining the top clubs in the Premier League. West Ham United showed that is possible with a strong 2020/21 season, while Everton have made a really good start under Rafael Benitez and have some key players returning shortly.

Even with injury issues, Everton have been picking up important points and a win on Sunday would set them up for a good run before the November international break. The fixture list looks pretty kind for Rafael Benitez and his players, but they can't afford to overlook a West Ham United team who are unbeaten in 8 away games.

The Hammers have a healthy team and they have won 6 of those 8 games on their travels with an attacking approach reaping plenty of rewards. They should challenge Everton, but the home team have been producing strong results at Goodison Park the season after the form here let them down.

Everton have been scoring goals for fun at home, but they have not always convinced at the back and the feeling is that these two teams are going to provide fireworks. Both Premier League games were tightly contested affairs last season, but Everton and West Ham United have started off brightly and the attacking threat of both starting elevens should see more goals shared out here.

The match could get bogged down into a tactical battle if we don't see an early spark, but the form of both of these teams suggest they will want to get on the front foot as early as possible. That should produce an entertaining game where at least three goals are scored on the day.

Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There is going to be a party atmosphere at St James' Park on Sunday as the fans will be able to attend a fixture for the first time since the Saudi-backed takeover has been completed.

Of course there are moral questions about this takeover, but fans of the club are just glad to see the back of Mike Ashley. It doesn't hurt that Newcastle United will soon be challenging for silverware, but there are going to be plenty of changes in the coming years at the club.

The first of those is expected to be confirmed before kick off- Steve Bruce is not the fan's favourite and the new board will want to appoint a manager of their own choosing and most are expecting Bruce to be Sacked before this fixture is played.

The excitement of what is to come should inspire the home team who will be well backed by the fans. Injuries are clearing up at the right time and Newcastle United can take advantage of an inconsistent Tottenham Hotspur team that have been struggling at both ends of the field.

A 2-1 win over Aston Villa will have been very welcomed by the Tottenham Hotspur management team and the fans, but Nuno Espirito Santo knows this is still a work in progress. The victory came at home, but Spurs have been more vulnerable on their travels and have conceded at least twice in 4 away games in succession.

Back to back away Premier League losses will not help the confidence and I do think Newcastle United can avoid defeat. In recent games they have had the better of opponents and been unfortunate not to have more points on the board, while Newcastle United have drawn their last 2 games here which is the least I would expect out of this game.

Tottenham Hotspur have been giving up some big chances and I think the likes of Allan Saint-Maximin and a potentially returning Callum Wilson can expose those issues. The Magpies don't have the best recent record at home against Spurs, but I think the momentum of the takeover helps the squad push forward for a positive result in this Sunday afternoon kick off.

Arsenal v Crystal Palace Pick: The final game in the Premier League this weekend will be played on Monday Night Football as Arsenal host the London derby against Crystal Palace.

The headlines will be all about Patrick Vieira managing against the team he Captained for so long in the peak of the Arsene Wenger era.

It will be difficult to speak about much else for those reporting on the game, but Patrick Vieira will be looking for his Crystal Palace team to build on some positive performances before the October international break. Heavy losses at Chelsea and Liverpool won't be overly concerning, especially as Crystal Palace have posed plenty of problems for the likes of West Ham United, Tottenham Hotspur and Leicester City.

Those three clubs are of a similar stature to Arsenal, although some could easily argue that two of those are better than this current edition of The Gunners. Mikel Arteta will be pleased with some of the Arsenal results between the September and October internationals, but they have not always convinced and I do think they are a vulnerable favourite.

Arsenal did blow away Tottenham Hotspur, but Norwich City were only beaten 1-0 here and both Burnley and Brighton will feel they deserved a lot more than they got against this opponent.

The Eagles will be able to use their pace in the final third to try and counter their hosts and they showed against West Ham United how dangerous they can be. The underlying numbers of recent games have suggested that Crystal Palace have been unfortunate not to have more points and I do think they can cause plenty of problems for Arsenal.

Add in the fact that Crystal Palace are unbeaten in 3 visits to the Emirates Stadium and I would be a little surprised if Arsenal are able to blow past them. Backing The Eagles with the start looks the play here and I think Crystal Palace may upset a few with a surprise result.

MY PICKS: Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap

Aston Villa-Wolves Both Teams to Score- NO

Leicester City-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals

Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap

Norwich City + 0.5 Asian Handicap

Leeds United 0 Asian Handicap

Brentford + 1 Asian Handicap

Everton-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals

Newcastle United + 0.5 Asian Handicap

Crystal Palace + 1 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 8

I am pretty ashamed of my Fantasy Premier League team.

39 points in GameWeek 6 looked like being a low water mark, but apparently that is not the case. In GameWeek 7 I managed to go one worse with 38 points secured and my Captain beginning on the bench and earning a single point underlined the horrible couple of weeks I have had.

I think many had a difficult GW7 with the top names failing to fire outside of Mohamed Salah, but the last couple of weeks have been incredibly frustrating and I have to say I have enjoyed the international break just to have a reset from the game.

Well I would have enjoyed it, but injury and international games being scheduled as late as Thursday before this GW8 means there are plenty of doubts about the kind of team I am going to be able to field.

Antonio Rudiger has been ruled out, but that will mean Andreas Christensen is able to come in. Raphinha played and scored twice for Brazil on Thursday, but an overnight flight back to the United Kingdom means he is a big doubt to play for Leeds United at Southampton and his absence would mean Conor Gallagher will be in my starting eleven if the Brazilian is not able to go.

I have only recently brought in both of those players with the knowledge that they have a good looking fixture list coming up, but the best laid plans can go wrong. I wouldn't panic about the availability of either of those two players going forward just yet, but it would be a touch frustrating if both Rudiger and Raphinha are missing this weekend.

Has any of this changed my mind about how I am going to handle my team in GW8? No, not really.

After Cristiano Ronaldo was surprisingly dropped to the bench by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (a move that still baffles me two weeks later), I think a decision was made that I would be looking to use that premium asset money elsewhere. However, I do think Ronaldo has a good looking game this weekend and I am looking for the superstar to remind the manager how important he is going to be for Manchester United with a big performance.

However, that decision by Solskjaer means the money I had set aside to have Romelu Lukaku playing alongside Ronaldo in my Fantasy team is no longer my priority. Instead I am going to look to strengthen another one of my defensive options and the team I am targeting is one of United's main rivals.

Manchester City.

Once again this is a team that looks like they are going to be very hard to break down and the matches between now and the November international break look difficult to ignore. Ruben Dias is perhaps the strongest player to target with little rotation risk, but I think Joao Cancelo has made a hugely positive start for the team and he looks like he might be worth the extra rotation risk with the kind of returns he can offer.

Kyle Walker and Aymeric Laporte are a bit cheaper than Cancelo and Dias, and I do think both will be playing more often than not too, but it is the Portuguese full back that appeals the most.

A home game with Burnley could see Joao Cancelo bring in a really big return (if he starts) and I think he is worth the investment. Manchester City have shown they can bring in clean sheets against any team they face and I think it is the right player to target for my team.

Going without Lukaku this week is not going to be easy, especially if Brentford defend as they did against Liverpool, but I am fairly happy with the way the squad is set up for not only GW8, but for the remainder of the month.

I have yet to take a hit and I would like to get through this month without doing so, but I need to have a much better week than the last two GWs to avoid feeling the pressure to make multiple changes.

The Captaincy will be given to a player in the 12:30pm kick off, a policy that has backfired in the last couple of weeks. It is something that players of the game like to avoid doing with the 12:30pm proving to be a letdown spot more often than not, but Mohamed Salah is in great form and his previous record against Watford just makes it easy to back the Liverpool forward in GW8.

I will have a screenshot of my team on Twitter just after the deadline tomorrow, but most of the decisions look pretty easy. The plan for the remainder of the month is also one that I feel comfortable with, but the issue is always out of our hands and it is never a good thing to be set in stone with moves that you want to make.

You have to remain fluid at all times, but I am also hoping that my expectations for certain players will be reached this week having seen many underperform over the last two GameWeeks.