NFL Week 14 Picks 2020 (December 10-14)

Week 14 of the 2020 NFL season has come around pretty quickly and that has something to do with the Covid-19 outbreak which meant Week 13 didn't finish until Tuesday.

Games are increasing in importance all the time as the run towards the PlayOffs gathers pace.

I will update this thread over the coming days, but below you can read my pick from Thursday Night Football.

New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: Covid-19 regulations means this has had the feel of a different kind of week for the New England Patriots. They played in Los Angeles in this same Stadium in Week 13 and were given an opportunity by the NFL to stay on the West Coast for this Thursday Night Football game, although the Patriots have had to isolate and be involved in online walkthroughs in preparation for this one.

The Patriots did blow out the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday and that has moved them back to 6-6 for the 2020 season. A strong finish will still see the Patriots earn their spot in the PlayOffs, but there isn't much room for error even though New England have three Divisional Games to come following this Thursday Night outing and that does bring the potential for a distraction.

There will be time to prepare for the games against the Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets with the time between Week 14 and Week 15 offering the Patriots a mini-bye. That should give Bill Belichick all of the focus he needs to try and get the better of the Los Angeles Rams who won't have forgotten the Super Bowl defeat to the New England Patriots in February 2019.

Revenge cannot be the only motivation for the Rams who moved to the top of the NFC West after beating the Arizona Cardinals on the road on the same day that the Seattle Seahawks were upset by the New York Giants. A battle to win the Division is still in front of the Rams so they can't afford to drop any games either and that should mean we have a competitive game on Thursday Night Football which didn't have a running in Week 13 after the Baltimore Ravens had to shift their game against the Dallas Cowboys to Tuesday.

Both teams will be looking to run the ball and control the clock in this one and I do think it is a good game between teams who have some of the sharpest minds in the NFL on each sideline. Bill Belichick versus Sean McVay should be fascinating to watch when the Los Angeles Rams have the ball and there is no doubt that McVay will want to show he has learnt plenty from overseeing his team scoring just three points in the Super Bowl loss to New England.

Cam Akers could miss out for the Rams, but they will likely suit up Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson Jr to run the ball for them. It is important to try and keep Jared Goff in front of the chains and make sure the Quarter Back is at ease with the field position to avoid him getting flustered and rattled into making mistakes.

However it won't be easy for the Rams to run the ball with consistency against this New England Defensive Line, especially not with the injuries on the Offensive Line which have contributed to their poor rushing numbers. I think that may be the case for Los Angeles on Thursday Night Football and it will likely lead to the Rams playing from third and long spots which is not ideal for Goff at Quarter Back.

There have been one or two holes in the New England Secondary which have been attacked, but I also do think Bill Belichick is going to try and cover up the likes of Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods and force Jared Goff to read through his progressions. In the Super Bowl a little over eighteen months ago it was a Belichick Defensive unit which shut down a powerful Los Angeles Offensive unit so there is a feeling he can do the same here.

While I do think New England are going to have some success Defensively, it is going to be a much tougher day Offensively than they had in the win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13. That win was sparked by a number of huge Special Teams plays, but I am not sure they are going to have the same kind of successes against this Rams Defensive unit which continues to play at a high level.

I am not going to say the New England Offense is predictable, but I do think they are very much a run first team. If they can establish the ground game they become dangerous, but Cam Newton has not been blessed with the best Receiving corps and it has perhaps been part of the issues the former Carolina Panther has had when it comes to throwing down the field.

Unfortunately for the Patriots, I do think they are going to have a hard time running the ball against this Los Angeles Defensive Line even with a scrambling Quarter Back behind Center. If the Rams can clamp down on the run, it will mean Newton has to find some quick throws, screens and also use his legs to try and move the chains, but that may not be easy to do either.

The Rams do get some pressure up front so may be able to rush Cam Newton and I do think it is going to be hard for the Patriots to move the ball up and down the field. They will be looking to make use of short fields and turnovers to try and get into scoring position, but overall it should be a difficult day for New England.

Both teams may have one or two issues moving the ball Offensively and that leans me towards backing the under in this game.

It will be the first over/under I have backed this season, but this feels like being a low-scoring game and I would not be surprised if only one team managed to produce more than 20 points.

The under has actually gone 4-1 in the last five New England games as the underdog and is a perfect 5-0 in the last five Rams games as a home favourite. It is also a play that is 5-2 in the last seven between these teams and I do think points will be hard to come by, while the game could be shortened if both teams are making quick passes in place of a running game.

My feeling is that the Rams may just win and cover too, but it is not as strong a feeling as this game ending up below the total points line.

Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants Pick: For a long time in 2020 the NFC East has been taking its shots from critics with all four teams looking amongst the poorest in the entire NFL. None of them have a winning record with four weeks left of the season, but all of a sudden the Washington Football Team have won three in a row and the New York Giants have won four in a row.

Both teams are at 5-7 and the Giants will be looking to keep their noses in front in the Division as they hold the tie-breaker over Washington. The Giants won a big road game at the Seattle Seahawks in Week 13 which will give them a lot of confidence, especially as it was the first time in 2020 that the Giants have beaten a team with a winning record.

They will be hosting the Arizona Cardinals who were at 6-3, but who have since dropped three in a row and are under some pressure to stay in touch with the leading teams in the NFC West and also the NFC Wild Card places. Injuries have not helped the Cardinals and the early start on the East Coast is not ideal for a team who have not won since the Hail Murray play which beat the Buffalo Bills.

During the three game losing run Kyler Murray has not really looked himself and teams have begun to focus on stopping him on the run and forcing him to turn to his left when he does want to scramble and throw on the run. That has had an impact in his performances and now he has to take on a Giants Defensive unit which is perhaps not rated as highly as they should be.

New York's Secondary have been very difficult to throw the ball against thanks to the pressure they are getting up front and that is going to be an issue for Arizona. While it is next to impossible to stop DeAndre Hopkins having a big impact on the game, the Giants will believe they can shut down other options in the passing game and also force Murray to rush his throws which could lead to turnovers and negative plays.

The Cardinals have been struggling to run the ball of late too, but they may have a chance to get back on track somewhat in this game. As good as the New York Defense has been in recent games, the Defensive Line do give up some big plays on the ground and both Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds are capable of establishing the run, while Murray is still a threat to take off with his legs and move the chains.

Even then I do think the Giants can at least limit the amount of points Arizona score and that will give them a real chance of securing an upset.

Daniel Jones may be ready to return for New York at Quarter Back, but Colt McCoy played well enough at Seattle to believe he can have some successes if he is called upon again. Personally I think Jones will get the start and he does have some big Receiving options available which will give him a chance to have a good game, even if it has to be said that Jones is never far away from a back breaking turnover.

Wayne Gallman is no Saquon Barkley, but he should be able to have some good runs in this one and that will help out his Quarter Back. Daniel Jones is also capable with his legs and I think they can stay in front of the chains which should give the Giants a big opportunity to score points in this one.

The passing game has not exactly lit up the scoreboard of late, but the Giants should offer Jones or McCoy enough time to make their plays into this Arizona Secondary. In recent games the Cardinals have struggled to get a consistent pass rush going and that may show up here too which will give the New York Quarter Back the time to make throws down the field.

It feels like this is going to be a close and competitive game, but you can't ignore the momentum the two teams have built up ahead of Week 14. While the Giants are winning and feeling good, Arizona have been going the other way and the early Eastern Time slot is not ideal.

The Cardinals did beat the Giants here last season, but they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games as the favourite.

New York have covered in their last seven as the underdog and I think they have every chance of winning this game outright.

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: An Overtime win over the Jacksonville Jaguars has kept the Minnesota Vikings alive when it comes to the PlayOff picture in the NFC. At 6-6 there isn't a lot of room for error for the Vikings who have won five of their last six games, but this could be a pivotal game for them as they look to earn the tie-breaker over a potential Wild Card rival in the Conference.

That makes it a big game for the visitors, but don't underestimate the importance of the game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who are hoping the Bye Week has allowed them to fix one or two issues they continue to have. The main issue seems to be the Head Coach and the Quarter Back not being on the same page and the Buccaneers went into the Bye Week having lost three of their last four games to fall to 7-5.

Those losses against the New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs have perhaps shown the Buccaneers are not ready to beat some of the best teams in the NFL. That is despite the obvious talent they have on both sides of the ball and with a veteran, future Hall of Fame Quarter Back running the show.

Tom Brady has not always looked at his best in this system which is not really taking into consideration his strengths. Instead the rumours are that Bruce Arians refuses to compromise on how he wants his teams to play Offensively and there has been some discord between the two men who were supposed to come together and make the Buccaneers a favourite to become the first team to play a Super Bowl in their home Stadium.

Right now Tampa Bay are just searching for a way into the PlayOffs and I do expect them to match up well with the Minnesota Defensive unit which has suffered injuries and not playing to the level we have come to expect under Mike Zimmer. The Buccaneers should be able to hand the ball off to Ronald Jones and/or Leonard Fournette and I would expect them to at least keep the Offensive unit in front of the chains and thus open up the playbook for Tom Brady.

There has been little sign in recent games that the Vikings Defensive Line are suddenly going to clamp down on the run and that should mean Jones and Fournette both have their moments ripping off some big gains. Tom Brady should then be able to exploit a Secondary which struggled to contain Mike Glennon in Week 13, while the Quarter Back won't be bothered by a heavy pass rush and so should have time to find the likes of Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Antonio Brown down the field.

Running the ball has been a key strength for the Minnesota Offense this season, but Dalvin Cook is going to have problems as they try and control the clock and keep Tom Brady on the sidelines. As good as Cook has been, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been able to stop the run and the Defensive Line will feel they can dominate the trenches in this one too.

He could be a threat coming out of the backfield and giving Kirk Cousins a safety blanket, but it will be difficult for Cook on the ground and that will give Tampa Bay a significant advantage in the game. Forcing Minnesota to rely on Kirk Cousins could see the Buccaneers find a way to create a couple of turnovers, although Cousins will believe there is a weakness in the Secondary that he can exploit with Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson.

I do think Kirk Cousins would be right to think that, but if he is in obvious passing downs and distance he will be under pressure as the Minnesota Offensive Line has struggled in protection. The Buccaneers don't have the most effective pass rush in the NFL, but they can get to Cousins who will have to scramble and also try and make throws under duress to keep the Vikings moving.

Doing that consistently has yet to be proven by Cousins in his NFL career and he will have to be wary of the Secondary creating turnovers. While there are going to be some solid drives from Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, I do think the lack of balance could prove costly against a well rested opponent who have a point to prove.

I do think Tampa Bay will have worked out one or two kinks during their Bye Week and that should give them an edge with the balance Offensively working in their favour.

Tampa Bay are 4-1 against the spread in the last five against Minnesota, while the Buccaneers have covered in their last four games following a straight up loss. This is a considerable number, but I do think the home team will be a little more rested and ready to go and can beat the Vikings in what could be a vital game when it comes to the final PlayOff spots.

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: After impressive back to back wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Indianapolis Colts, it was strange to see the Tennessee Titans lay an egg in their Week 13 defeat to the Cleveland Browns. They will be looking to bounce back having dropped to 8-4 which means sharing the AFC South lead with the Colts, and the Titans really can't afford to drop a Divisional game.

It is especially the case when facing the Jacksonville Jaguars who were beaten for the eleventh time in a row in Week 13 having forced Overtime against the Minnesota Vikings. The Jaguars are still not holding the worst record in the NFL which would offer them the chance to Draft their next Quarter Back, but they are in a position to have a very high selection anyway.

The players are not going to concern themselves about the future as most will be playing for the chance to play in the NFL themselves. That has seen Jacksonville continue to play hard even if they have come up short and I think that kind of effort will be good enough to at least stay competitive in Florida.

Mike Glennon is the latest Quarter Back to be given an opportunity to impress at Jacksonville and he has been an upgrade on recent performers. There are still times Glennon can be criticised for making the wrong decision or allowing a back-breaking turnover, but this looks a good chance for him to have a strong outing.

In recent weeks the emergence of James Robinson at Running Back has at least given the Offensive unit a boost and a chance to play in front of the chains. I expect the Jaguars to offer up a heavy dose of Robinson again, although the big test in the trenches is establishing the run against an improving Tennessee Defensive Line which has been able to clamp down on rush.

Some of that may be down to the fact that teams have had a lot of joy throwing the ball against the banged up Secondary, but I do expect the Jaguars to try and get the ball into James Robinson's hands and look for him to make some big plays for them.

The Quarter Back is not exactly loaded with Receiving talent, but there is enough here for Jacksonville to have success with Mike Glennon. His Offensive Line has not only played well when opening holes for the Running Back, but they have also protected Glennon and the limited Tennessee pass rush is unlikely to put pressure on him here.

It should mean Mike Glennon is able to make some big throws against this Secondary and I do think Jacksonville are capable of scoring enough points to at least keep the game close.

Tennessee struggled out of the gate last week, but Offensively they have really been in good form of late and I expect Derrick Henry to have a big game. He lost a rare Fumble last week, but Henry should crack open some big runs against this Jacksonville Defensive Line which has allowed an average of 152 yards per game on the ground across their last three.

Running the ball should give the Titans the chance to wear down this Defense with some long drives, while it also opens things up for Ryan Tannehill. Like his counterpart, Tannehill is expected to make some solid throws against a Secondary giving up big numbers and the former Miami Dolphin should be comfortable playing in Florida at this time of the year.

You do have to expect the Titans to bounce back from their loss last week, but I do think both teams will chew up some clock as they look to establish the run and also with successes connecting with some big plays through the air. Tennessee only won narrowly when hosting Jacksonville earlier this season and I do think the Jaguars should be motivated to try and upset a Divisional rival.

The Jaguars are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine at home against the Titans and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the underdog.

Tennessee are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight as the favourite and this is a team that has tended to play up and down to the level of opponent faced. While I do expect the Titans to prevail, I think the Jacksonville Jaguars could secure a backdoor cover at the very least in this one.

Dallas Cowboys @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: There is still a chance for the Dallas Cowboys to make the PlayOffs despite sitting at 3-9, although the pressure is on to win their final four games and then hope for help from others. The losses to Washington and Baltimore in the last couple of weeks have come with little resistance which has to be a worry, but you have to believe Andy Dalton is going to be highly motivated when facing his former team for the first time.

Andy Dalton was jettisoned by the Cincinnati Bengals who have moved on to a new franchise Quarter Back, but Joe Burrow is out and the Bengals are completely banged up in all units. That should give Dalton a chance to win in his former home, although he is going to need some support from his team-mates who have looked like they can't wait until the end of the season.

In usual circumstances I think I would move right past this game as two bad teams face one another, and the Cowboys are coming in off a short week. However I do think the Quarter Back can inspire his team for revenge while I am not sure the Cincinnati Bengals are going to be able to score more than 14 points in this one which makes any cover tough to come by.

Brandon Allen is going to make his third start in place of Joe Burrow at Quarter Back, but he has been offered very little pass rush protection from his Offensive Line and has been banged up over the last two weeks. Even though he will play here, I would not be surprised if the Cowboys are able to generate some pressure against Allen and at least bring him down a couple of times to stall drives.

There are injuries in the Dallas Secondary, but that pressure will help them and Cincinnati have shown little consistency throwing the ball since Burrow went down.

One of the other reasons the Dallas Secondary have decent numbers is because teams have been able to run against them with very little resistance. They gave up almost 300 yards on the ground to the Baltimore Ravens on Tuesday, but this Cincinnati Offensive Line is banged up and Joe Mixon remains absent and I am not sure the Bengals are going to be able to take advantage of Dallas here. Giovani Bernard has not really filled in as the Bengals would have liked and I do think their Offensive Line issues could see drives ending with Field Goals or Punts more often than not.

It is that aspect which makes me believe backing a team with three wins as a road favourite is the right play in Week 14 of the 2020 season. Offensive Line issues is something that Dallas will sympathise with but the Cincinnati Bengals have found very little pressure so there is a real chance that Andy Dalton will have the time to hit what is still a solid Receiving corps down the field.

Some reports are suggesting that Ezekiel Elliot could be ruled out and that will hurt the Dallas Cowboys as the Bengals have been pretty good at defending the run. If he is able to go I still think Elliot can put the Cowboys in front of the chains and just put his Quarter Back in a very strong position to make plays and put Dallas in a position to win the game.

The former Bengal will have to be wary of the Cincinnati Secondary, which is one of the better parts of the Cincinnati Defensive unit, although they have not been able to completely shut down the pass. I expect the likes of Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz and Amari Cooper to give Andy Dalton the kind of threats to move the ball up and down the field and I do think Dallas can win here.

The trends are pointing towards the Cincinnati Bengals, but I simply don't think Brandon Allen can help this team score enough points to stay competitive. They had a backdoor cover against the New York Giants a couple of weeks ago and almost did the same against the Miami Dolphins in Week 14, but I am keen on backing a motivated Andy Dalton to get one over on his former team.

The Cowboys are a bad team, but so are the banged up Cincinnati Bengals who have a big game with Pittsburgh on deck and may be focusing on that rather than this non-Conference game. I don't feel great backing a road favourite like Dallas, but that is where I find myself in Week 14 as long as you don't have to back them over the key number 3.

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions Pick: The Green Bay Packers may hold the tie-breaker over the New Orleans Saints in the NFC, but the race for the Number 1 Seed in the Conference is likely to go down to the wire. At the point the Packers are a game behind the Saints so the only thing on their minds has to be winning out and hoping New Orleans slip.

You can't ignore the importance of winning the Number 1 Seed as that will be the only team earning a Bye in the PlayOffs. In recent years those teams receiving a Bye have had a big advantage in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs and beyond and the sole team with that Bye in the bag are going to be feeling really good about their chances.

The Packers are big favourites on the road, but this is a Divisional game and the Detroit Lions played with plenty of heart to come from behind and beat the Chicago Bears in Week 13. That came in the days after Matt Patricia was fired as Head Coach and there are going be some big changes coming up in Detroit, although Interim Head Coach Darrell Bevell will be trying to keep his players focused on giving their all with the next four weeks an effective job interview.

If the Week 13 win over the Bears is anything to go by then we should expect to see the Lions offering plenty here. Matthew Stafford may not be the future of the franchise at Quarter Back now changes are coming, but there is still plenty coming from the veteran even though his Receiving corps remains banged up.

Matthew Stafford will be challenged by the Green Bay Packers Secondary which has recovered key players and that also seen an improvement in the numbers. I do think Stafford has shown he can find the creases in any Defensive backfield, but he will also be aware that the Detroit Offensive Line has not offered a lot of time and now Stafford is going to be dealing with a Packers pass rush that is playing at a high level.

Teams have been able to at least try and establish the run to keep the Packers Offense on the sidelines and remain in front of the chains with their own Offense. However the Detroit Offensive Line have not only struggled in pass protection, and the lack of holes up front has made it very difficult for Detroit to run the ball as they would like.

D'Andre Swift could be back for Detroit which will give them a huge boost, but even then his bigger threat may be picking up passes out of the backfield and giving Matthew Stafford a safety blanket.

I do still think Detroit will have some success as they did when meeting the Packers in Green Bay, but on that day their own Defensive unit were not able to slow Aaron Rodgers down. With problems in the Lions Secondary, I do think Rodgers is set to have another big game for the Green Bay Packers and he has gotten some key players back on that side of the ball which makes this team even more dangerous.

Allan Lazard may not be one of the stand out names on the roster, but he offers Aaron Rodgers another target opposite Davante Adams and just makes this team a little more dangerous. Aaron Rodgers has continued to play with a chip on his shoulder in 2020 despite the lack of weapons Drafted for him earlier this year and Green Bay should be able to move the ball through the air against a banged up Detroit Secondary.

With little pass rush pressure, I do think Rodgers will have time to make his plays and the Quarter Back has largely looked after the ball which is key. He should keep the Offensive drives moving up and down the field with his arm and Green Bay look capable of winning a shoot out.

The Lions will at least believe their Defensive Line are able to make some plays up front to clamp down on the run, but Green Bay have a strong Offensive Line and they have been dominating the trenches. It should offer Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams some strong running lanes and just means the Packers will have the kind of balance which may see them pull away for a big win.

Detroit have to be respected as they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven at home against Green Bay.

However they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five as the home underdog and 2-5 against the spread in their last seven when playing a team with a winning record.

Green Bay are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten as the favourite and have been very good when playing Divisional rivals of late. I think this could be a high-scoring game, but I think Green Bay are more likely to end drives with Touchdowns rather than the Detroit Lions and it may see them pull away for the win and the cover here.

MY PICKS: Los Angeles Rams-New England Patriots Under 43.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

New York Giants + 2.5 Points @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Washington Football Team + 3 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)

NFL Week 14 Picks 2015 (December 10-14)

The final few weeks of the season are dominated by teams chasing the Play Offs and those that have perhaps turned their attention to high Draft Picks.

The NFC East looks like it will go all the way down to the wire, but the Carolina Panthers have become the first team of the twelve that will be playing in January as they clinched the NFC South thanks to another Atlanta Falcons loss.

Carolina are now looking to clinch the Number 1 Seed in the NFC which will bring with it home advantage through the Play Offs. There are some dangerous looking teams in both the AFC and NFC that are pushing for Wild Card spots though with both Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks in a position to clinch one of those spots and I can see both making considerable noise in the Play Offs.

It should be a fun few weeks to end 2015.

NFL Week 14 Picks

Week 12 was a pretty pathetic one, but Week 13 has proved to be a big bounce back week for the picks with a solid 8-3 record. That has changed the season back around, but the last four weeks are going to be critical to get the picks on track and ready for the Play Off and Super Bowl push.

Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: The last couple of weeks have shown the Minnesota Vikings they still have some room to bridge if they are to take on the best of the NFC. The Vikings had become something of a 'sexy' pick to make noise in the Play Offs, but they were blown out at home in Week 13 by the Seattle Seahawks and now have to go on the road to face the Arizona Cardinals.

That is the 9-2 Cardinals who are still chasing the Carolina Panthers in the NFC for the Number 1 Seed.

Carson Palmer has played like the MVP, although likely still behind Cam Newton, but the veteran has every chance of putting up more big numbers. With the Vikings missing some key presences in the Secondary and at Linebacker, Palmer should have a very big game with Bruce Arians likely to dial up lots of deep passing plays to attack Minnesota.

Injuries to Andre Ellington and Chris Johnson can be overcome by David Johnson, although Arizona need to establish the run a little better than they have in recent games. David Johnson played well in St Louis last week and could have some success in this game, something that will only aid Palmer all the more to put together another multiple Touchdown and 300 plus passing yards day.

So can Minnesota show they are not going to be 'outcoached' in this one? Adrian Peterson suggested that was the case when he had just eight carries in Week 13, but he was restricted to just 18 yards. It could be another tough week for Peterson in trying to establish the run against Arizona who shut down Todd Gurley last week and are giving up under 4 yards per carry in their last three games.

Teddy Bridgewater has to show he can pass the ball against a top Secondary to perhaps open up more running lanes, but the second year Quarter Back hasn't been much more than a game manager this year. The Offensive Line hasn't been at their best in protection when it comes to the pass, although Arizona haven't been dominant in getting to the Quarter Back for much of the season.

There has been improvement there, but the Cardinals biggest strength is to bring the pressure knowing the Secondary won't lose their battles. Arizona should be able to take away the Minnesota Receivers for the main part in this game and I think there looks to be too much Offense for them.

My one worry has to be the way the point spread has passed the double digit mark. However, that might be down to the injuries Minnesota have Defensively ahead of facing one of the best Offensive teams in the NFL and I still like Arizona to win this one by around fourteen points.


Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: All of the talk ahead of this game is about the break down of the relationship between Chip Kelly and LeSean McCoy. That saw McCoy traded to the Buffalo Bills in the off-season and there is no doubting how much the Running Back is looking forward to taking on his former Head Coach and team.

That drama might have taken over the headlines, but both the Philadelphia Eagles and the Buffalo Bills will be desperate for a win that will aid their Play Off bids.

Both had big wins in Week 13 and the Eagles are a better team with Sam Bradford at Quarter Back than when they have to roll with Mark Sanchez. Bradford didn't have to do too much last week as the Defensive unit and Special Teams picked up their play in a win at the New England Patriots.

It will be those units that will be key for Philadelphia this week too as they take on a Buffalo team that is inconsistent but looks to have the pieces to give the Eagles a lot to think about. Tyrod Taylor has been a revelation at Quarter Back although is playing through some pain and you can be sure McCoy will have a big game.

But my gut feeling is saying that Philadelphia can play well enough with Bradford running the show to beat the Bills. They haven't been able to string wins together and backing up a big one like they had at the New England Patriots will be far from easy.

However, I think Philadelphia can do just enough on both sides of the ball to earn a narrow win and get into a position where they can win the NFC East.


Tennessee Titans @ New York Jets Pick: The New York Jets should not have had an opportunity to come back and beat the New York Giants last week, but Tom Coughlin out-thought the situation. The Jets are still firmly in the mix for the Play Offs with a Wild Card spot potentially available, but they can't afford to drop this game at home if they want to fulfil their ambitions.

The Jets take on the Tennessee Titans this week who are coming off a rollercoaster ride before beating the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Both teams might struggle to run the ball this week as the Jets Defensive Line has been able to shut down much better teams than the Titans. On the other side of the ball, the Jets have not been able to establish an effective running game and that means both Marcus Mariota and Ryan Fitzpatrick will have to win this game with their arm.

One of the big problems that Mariota will face is his Offensive Line has been struggling to protect him all season. The Jets have the kind of pass rush that will have Mariota scrambling for his life for much of the afternoon and Darrelle Revis is possibly back to take away one half of the field.

Tennessee have actually managed to get to the Quarter Back too so Fitzpatrick won't have the same time he seemed to have in the Fourth Quarter against the Giants last week. There are still some big holes in the Secondary to exploit and I imagine Fitzpatrick will combine with Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker for some big gains through the air.

I am a little concerned with the way the Jets have been playing of late to cover such a big spread, but the favourite is 4-0 against the spread in recent games between these teams. The New York Jets are also 6-2 against the spread against Tennessee and I like them to cover, but I will have a small interest only.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: No matter how this game goes, it looks unlikely that the Cincinnati Bengals won't be playing at least one home Play Off game as AFC North Divisional winners. However, it is an important one for both teams as it could have a huge impact in how far the Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers can go in the post-season.

I have thought of the Pittsburgh Steelers as a very dangerous team in the AFC and they look very healthy Offensively which will give any team a real problem. Ben Roethlisberger has been throwing the ball wonderfully and he has a strong Receiving corps that will give the Bengals plenty of problems.

He has been well protected by the Offensive Line and the Bengals Secondary is one that is liable to giving up the big play so the likes of Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant could have strong days.

With DeAngelo Williams running the ball effectively too, Pittsburgh should move the ball consistently through this game. The big question is whether their Defense can control what Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals are able to do against them.

Dalton should have success throwing to AJ Green and the likely returning Tyler Eifart against the Pittsburgh Secondary that have been up and down all season. However, the Steelers might have some success in this one with a fierce pass rush which has been harassing opposition Quarter Backs in recent games although the Cincinnati Bengals Offensive Line has done well to keep Dalton upright.

The Steelers also have played the run very well as the new look Steel Curtain has held teams to just 2.9 yards per carry over their last three games. That includes playing the Seattle Seahawks who might have beaten Pittsburgh but who were actually out-gained by over 100 yards.

Keeping Cincinnati in third and long spots and having a quality pass rush should give Pittsburgh the edge in this one. The Steelers are 12-2-1 against the spread in their last fifteen visits to Cincinnati and I think they get a measure of revenge for their home loss to the Bengals earlier this season.

I actually thought this game might have been closer to a pick 'em after the way Pittsburgh blew out Indianapolis in a prime time game in Week 13. Therefore getting the points on the road team who I consider as good as any in the AFC is hard to ignore.


Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: The injuries suffered by Matt Hasselbeck last week looked to be on the path to keeping him out of this game, but the veteran is set to go for one last game. That is because the Indianapolis Colts look to have Andrew Luck back next week, but there is also no guarantee that Hasselbeck is able to get through this game unscathed.

Much of that will come down to his Offensive Line which has struggled to keep the pass rush away from their Quarter Back in recent games. That challenge is all the tougher when you think of how well the Jacksonville Jaguars Defensive Line has played in pressurising the opposition Quarter Back and Hasselbeck may not have a lot of time to throw the ball before he is hit.

Ahmad Bradshaw is out, but the veteran Frank Gore hasn't been able to put an effective running game out on the field. The Colts have struggled badly when it comes to running the ball and that hasn't helped Hasselbeck although Gore could have a better game this week against this Jacksonville Defense giving up 4.5 yards per carry in recent weeks.

There are also some decent Receivers here for Hasselbeck to hit, but the veteran will likely need to be even better than when he helped the Colts beat the Jaguars earlier this season.

Blake Bortles and the Jacksonville Offense have certainly been producing some big games of late and they play an Indianapolis Defense that has struggled to get teams off the field. TY Yeldon should be able to have a very big game running the ball and keeping Jacksonville in third and short situations through the day which is going to be key for Bortles at Quarter Back.

Allen Hurns is back to join the likes of Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas as big time weapons in the Receiving game and Bortles could have another big game throwing the ball. The balance on the Offensive side of the ball should give Jacksonville every chance of winning this game and moving back in position to perhaps challenge for the AFC South Division title while a loss puts them out.

Indianapolis play Houston next week but can't overlook Jacksonville who I like as the small favourite. Only poor kicking prevented them beating the Colts once already and I think a balanced Offense coupled with a banged up Matt Hasselbeck gives the Jaguars the opportunity to win this game.

The Colts have dominated recent games in the series, but I like the home team to beat them this week.


Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The Carolina Panthers have already wrapped up a Play Off spot, but there is still some work to be done if they want to make sure they finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC. This certainly looks a complete team that even when the Defensive side of the ball is not quite playing up to the level expected that the Offensive side takes over and wins a shoot-out.

It might be the Defense that steps up to the plate this week against the Atlanta Falcons who have fallen apart after a 5-0 start to the season. Matt Ryan and the Offense have been out of sync for a while and turnovers have been killing them which doesn't bode well against Carolina.

Devonte Freeman has been a big help for Ryan and surprised people with the season he has had, but Carolina do play the run very well with their stud Linebackers able to penetrate and block up the holes. That will shift the pressure onto Ryan and his arm and it will be tough to move the chains from third and long spots knowing the Panthers have a fierce pass rush and his poor decision making that has been evident in recent games.

Giving up turnovers to Cam Newton and the Offense won't bode well for Atlanta in their bid to earn the upset. In recent games the Atlanta Falcons Defensive Line has begun to struggle a touch against the run having used that as their strength earlier on.

That should mean both Newton and Jonathan Stewart are able to move the chains with their legs or at least keep the team in third and short spots. Cam Newton has really picked up the pace throwing the ball in recent weeks too as his Receivers have earned his trust for the most part and I can see the Quarter Back and MVP candidate having another strong outing.

The Falcons have been competitive in their losses though and the back door cover is on with this big spread, but I think Carolina are still playing with a chip on their shoulder. Carolina look much better on both sides of the ball and I can see Ryan throwing a couple of back breaking turnovers which helps the Panthers move away.

Carolina are 5-1 against the spread in the last six in the series and I like them to cover this week.


Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: I don't know who Jimmy Clausen has pissed off this year, but he is going to be making his second start of the NFL season for two different teams.

Unfortunately both starts are going to come against the Seattle Seahawks and it is difficult to see how an injury hit Baltimore Ravens team are able to compete even at home.

Clauson Quarter Backed the Chicago Bears to a 26-0 loss earlier in the season and now faces a Seattle team that are making a big run to the Play Offs. There is no doubting that the Seahawks are improved and their hammering of the Minnesota Vikings on the road underlined that point in Week 13.

There just hasn't been a lot of running room against Seattle who are now healthy on the Defensive side of the ball. They are allowing just 3.2 yards per carry in their last three games which includes facing Adrian Peterson and I think the Seahawks are going to force Clauson to beat them, something he failed to do quite badly the first time he faced them.

Maybe that helps Clauson in knowing what he needs to do this week, but Baltimore are missing so many Offensive playmakers and I can't see how the Ravens move the chains consistently. There is a high chance that Clauson will have a couple of Interceptions in this one if Baltimore get behind and I think the Seahawks could be in for another dominant road win.

Now the Baltimore Ravens have played well Defensively for the most part, but Russell Wilson is arguably in his best form of the season. Wilson loves playing at this time of the season and I can see him scrambling around and making some big plays against this Secondary even without Jimmy Graham.

There is a lot of pride in the Baltimore Defense that will see them give Seattle something to solve, but the expected turnovers might give the Seahawks short fields to work with. That is a big reason I believe they will find a way to win this game by around two Touchdowns even if Seattle are not as strong on the road as they are at home.

Seattle were 16.5 point favourites to beat Clauson and the Chicago Bears at home and I do think the Quarter Back had more weapons in that game. Without those targets in Baltimore I think this spread might be a touch too low for the home underdog and I will back Seattle to cover.


Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The Dallas Cowboys might not have Tony Romo for the rest of the regular season, but they have given themselves an outside chance of making the Play Offs with a win at the Washington Redskins on Monday Night Football.

That means the 4-8 Cowboys are somehow only one game out of the Division lead in the terrible NFC East, but the schedule looks difficult for them to make the Play Offs. First off is trying to win a game at the Green Bay Packers who can take a big control of the NFC North by winning this game having seen the Minnesota Vikings fall apart in recent weeks.

However this isn't a straight-forward game for the Green Bay Packers who have lost four of their last six games and needed a 'Hail Mary' completion to beat the Detroit Lions last week. That could be a huge moment in their season and being at home should suit Aaron Rodgers even if the Packers have looked a little out of sync in recent weeks Offensively.

Eddie Lacy will be back in the starting line up having been punished last week for an indiscretion but you have to give the Cowboys credit for stepping up Defensively. They have controlled the line of scrimmage which means they are holding teams to just 3.5 yards per carry while the pressure Dallas are getting up front has protected the Secondary.

In previous years I would still think Green Bay would have their success Offensively, but they have struggled to run the ball effectively and keep Rodgers upright. The Receivers just haven't always been on the same page as Rodgers and Green Bay are averaging just 24 points per game this season.

Unfortunately for Dallas, they have had their difficulties with the ball in their Offense hands without Tony Romo too. Matt Cassel had a decent game against Washington, but the Green Bay Defensive unit isn't hit with the same injuries as the Redskins and it will be much harder for him to move the chains this week.

The Offensive Line hasn't opened the holes they did last season which isn't helped by the fact that teams are daring Dallas to beat them through the air. Green Bay have controlled the run and that has allowed their pass rush to get to the Quarter Back so Matt Cassel could be under some immense pressure in this one.

Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams are two solid Receivers, but it is tough for Cassel to get them the ball in third and long situations and that is where Green Bay will look to force mistakes.

Dallas are playing with revenge having had their season ended here controversially in the Play Offs last season, but I think the Packers will prove too good. It might be closer than expected for a while, but eventually I expect Aaron Rodgers to make a couple of big plays and lead the home team to a win by at least seven points.


New England Patriots @ Houston Texans Pick: The news that Rob Gronkowski has travelled with the New England Patriots to Houston for this game has seen the spread trend towards the road team. Of course it isn't often that the New England Patriots will be on the brink of a three game losing run under Bill Belichick so you can see why the public are behind them, but I like what the Houston Texans have done and can keep this close.

Brian Hoyer has played mistake free football for the most part and should be inspired by playing against his former team.

Hoyer has a lot of respect for the Patriots and he will need to be at his best against a Secondary that has played very well. That is thanks to some of the pressure the Patriots have gotten up front, although injuries might have hurt that pass rush in this game.

There is some evidence that Houston are beginning to run the ball better than they have for much of the season and New England have struggled in recent weeks against that part of the Defensive game plan.

Injuries on the Offensive side of the ball have hurt New England and you could see the Receivers were not on the same page as Tom Brady in the loss to Philadelphia last week. Gronkowski being back would be huge for Brady, but you have to think the Tight End is perhaps a little banged up and will only be used in limited plays.

New England have not run the ball that effectively in recent games, but they might have more success this week against the Texans who have given up 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games. LeGarrette Blount should be able to establish some threat on the ground which will give the Patriots a chance to move the chains with some consistency, but this still looks a lot of points for the Patriots to cover on the road.

The home team is 5-0-1 against the spread in the last six in the series between these teams and getting more than a Field Goal for Houston looks hard to ignore.


New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins Pick: One of the things I hate most about the late night Sunday NFL game and the Monday Night Football game is that you know the public are pounding the favourite no matter what. That can inflate lines and it is a big reason I am not usually behind the favourites in these prime spots where all the money is on them.

Not unless I really believe the team is capable of winning like I am in Week 14.

The New York Giants will only kick themselves if they don't win the NFC East and make the Play Offs because they have given away at least four games this season to drop to 5-7 and winning even half of those would have put them in a commanding position in the Division.

Last week it was more baffling decisions from Tom Coughlin who decided to pass on an easy Field Goal to go up 13 points with less than nine minutes remaining. The fact the Giants were Intercepted on Fourth Down and subsequently saw their ten point lead evaporate and lose in Overtime is on the Head Coach.

That kind of loss can be the big difference between January football or being on a golf course and this game on Monday Night is huge for the Giants. Both Washington and Philadelphia won games on Sunday which has given them an advantage in the NFC East and a defeat on Monday will mean the Giants fall behind them.

The game will be on Eli Manning's arm as the Giants have struggled to run the ball all season and have been even worse in recent outings. The Miami Dolphins Defensive Line is quite tough to run the ball against, but the Secondary has holes and I don't think there is a way to slow down Odell Beckham at this moment.

Manning to Beckham could have a big outing again, but the Giants have other playmakers in the Receiving game and the road team have to feel they move the chains fairly consistently. Miami have generated something of a pass rush in the later stages of the season, but Manning has been protected and gets the ball out quick enough to negate that.

A bigger question for the Giants is whether the Defensive unit can make enough plays as the game wears on. Tiredness didn't help them last week, but they also made Ryan Fitzpatrick look better than Aaron Rodgers so Ryan Tannehill shouldn't be overwhelmed.

However, a couple of things are going against Tannehill who simply hasn't developed in the manner a top ten pick in the Draft might have been expected to. The first problem is that Miami might not be able to establish much of a running game against the Giants who have played that part of the game well.

The second problem is that the Giants have begun to get some real pressure up front and Tannehill does have problems reading where that is coming from. While it is possible to throw against New York, Tannehill will be a little wary going for the big shot downfield as has been the norm in his career and his short passing game might not be good enough if Miami are constantly in third and long.

Miami have also stunk at home against the spread where they are 1-4 this season and they have gone 0-6 against the spread in their last six on Monday Night Football. Maybe the Giants find another stupid way to lose a game they have no right to, but I think they do win this one and cover the spread.

MY PICKS: Arizona Cardinals - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 1 Point @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
New York Jets - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 11 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Houston Texans + 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
New York Giants - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Week 13: 8-3, + 8.06 Units

Week 12: 2-10, - 14.18 Units

Week 11: 3-4-1, - 1.38 Units

Week 10: 3-6, - 5.54 Units

Week 9: 6-2, + 8.08 Units

Week 8: 0-1, - 1 Unit

Week 7: 2-4, - 4.23 Units

Week 6: 3-5-1, - 3.33 Units

Week 5: 3-5-1, - 3.48 Units

Week 4: 4-3-1, + 2.24 Units

Week 3: 8-2, + 9.03 Units

Week 2: 4-5, - 1.71 Units

Week 1: 5-2-1, + 6.46 Units

Season 2015: 51-52-5, + 0.02 Units

Season 2014: 77-80-2, - 8.47 Units

Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units