It was a case of so near, yet so far, when it came to the Tennis Picks through the Fourth Round in Cincinnati and those early retirements are not hitting the overall numbers pretty hard.
There is still a few days to go at this last 1000 event before the US Open begins and half of the Quarter Final matches are set to be played on Thursday.
This is an opportunity for players to throw down the gauntlet to the rivals ahead of the US Open, especially as both titles could be up grabs- Aryna Sabalenka will likely be the favourite in the women's event, but looks completely devoid of confidence and belief, while there is an increasing concern that both Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner will not be playing in New York City.
Alexander Zverev has not exactly taken advantage of that in Montreal or Cincinnati and that would mean there are a huge amount of players that may feel an opportunity to win a Grand Slam has opened up for them.
Winning the title here would give that player a huge shot in the arm ahead of the US Open and so an important few days lies ahead in both tournaments being played here.
Thiago Agustin Tirante-Arthur Fils over 0.5 tie-breakers: Yes, the Thiago Agustin Tirante three set win over Jakub Mensik failed to reach at least one tie-breaker, but it was the concern about scoreboard pressure at the back end of sets that worked against the selection.
In the first set, Tirante had only lost six points on serve when he stepped up at 5-6 behind, but he produced the worst game he would in the match.
Despite that, Thiago Agustin Tirante is still putting in strong serving numbers and this is likely to be another match dominated by that shot.
He will need to serve well against Arthur Fils, who has quietly made his way through the draw thanks to some strong returning displays. Those have to be respected, especially as they have been backed up by impressing serving of his own, and Arthur Fuls has the confidence of having beaten two top 15 Ranked opponents.
However, Thiago Agustin Tirante has managed to beat two players Ranked inside the top 16 and so both players should be expectant heading into this big Quarter Final.
Seeing at least one tie-breaker played looks underestimated considering the kind of serving both can produce- Arthur Fils deserves the edge in the match thanks to the superior returning he can produce on the hard courts, but his opponent should be able to keep this competitive through the opening couple of sets and one may need the breaker to separate the two.
Jessica Pegula v Amanda Anisimova: Five previous meetings on the Tour have all been won by Jessica Pegula, including both played this year at the Australian Open and in Dubai.
The latest of those saw Amanda Anisimova make a fast start, but she struggled on the serve and that makes things very difficult for the World Number 10.
The serve is one of her strengths and being put under constant pressure by the retrieving skills of Jessica Pegula has eventually led to Amanda Anisimova facing 22 Break Points in the two matches played against her compatriot this season. She has saved 14/22 of those big points, but being broken four times in both matches puts her under immediate pressure ahead of this one.
Amanda Anisimova is going to know she needs to serve very well and that is especially the case as she has struggled to deal with the Jessica Pegula delivery.
The lower Ranked of the two American player has won just 38% of return points played against Jessica Pegula, which is significantly below her seasonal mark. Amanda Anisimova has also created just 13 Break Points in the two matches and it is Jessica Pegula who has enjoyed her time in Cincinnati much more often than most.
She did have to play over two hours in the Fourth Round win over Sorana Cirstea, which is a potential factor, but Jessica Pegula has matched up well enough with Amanda Anisimova to believe she may get the better of her again.
Iga Swiatek - 1.5 games v Elena Rybakina: Another disappointing tournament for Aryna Sabalenka means the Number 1 spot in the World Rankings is up for grabs and Elena Rybakina may finally take that spot for the first time in her career.
However, that can only happen next week if Elena Rybakina can find a way to get past Iga Swiatek after losing in the Toronto Final to this opponent last Thursday.
Both players have backed up that run at the Canadian Master by putting another strong one together here and Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina continue to push and pull one another in the head to head. The Pole's win last week means she now leads 7-6 having snapped a two match losing run against Elena Rybakina and Iga Swiatek leads the hard court head to to head 6-4.
That includes beating Elena Rybakina in the Cincinnati Semi Final last year as they prepare to meet a Round earlier in 2026 and Iga Swiatek is playing with confidence that we have not seen that often over the last several months.
Winning the title in Toronto has clearly given her a boost and Iga Swiatek is the defending Champion in Cincinnati, although that does mean there is pressure to defend the Ranking Points with her live position seeing her dropped into World Number 9.
You have to believe Iga Swiatek is not overly concerned about that and instead is looking to complete the double of the two WTA 1000 events played in preparation for the US Open. There is no doubging the current Number 1 player is struggling and Iga Swiatek will be looking to make a big statement ahead of her bid to conclude the season with at least one Grand Slam title in her hands.
Much is going to come down to the Rybakina serve- in the six hard court wins, Iga Swiatek has won at least 41% of return points played, but the four losses have been in matches where she has not won more than 35%. Before the win in Toronto, Iga Swiatek had really struggled to deal with the Elena Rybakina serve in back to back hard court defeats, but the World Number 2 has allowed more Break Points than she has created in two of the three wins here in Cincinnati.
Iga Swiatek has not been as consistent on the serve as she would hope, but the numbers are better than people may imagine.
She is perhaps throwing in one or two really poor serving matches in a shorter time span than she had when at her very best, but Iga Swiatek can back up the win in the Toronto Final thanks to her current momentum.
MY PICKS: Thiago Agustin Tirante-Arthur Fils Over 0.5 Tie-Breakers @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Jessica Pegula @ 1.72 William Hill (1 Unit)
Iga Swiatek - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Update: 16-17, - 3.53 Units (29 Units Staked, - 12.17% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment