The last couple of days at the Cincinnati Masters are to be concluded this weekend and the Semi Final selections can be read below.
It has been a difficult tournament, but there is still hope for a flying end to take some momentum into the US Open after a rough month for the Tennis Picks.
Arthur Fils - 3.5 games v Flavio Cobolli: While one of these players looks to be peaking towards the end of the Cincinnati Masters, the other is scrambling in earning his place in the Semi Final.
You cannot use that as a stick to beat someone, but Flavio Cobolli has to know that the level needs to be lifted if he is going to beat Arthur Fils for the first time.
Flavio Cobolli has won all four matches in a third set, so there is no doubt that he has played a lot of tennis this week already. In the last two Rounds he has had to dig deep and come from behind to win both matches played and the Italian has spent eight hours on the court to earn his spot in the Semi Final.
However, it should be noted that the numbers have dipped in each of the last three wins compared with the victory before and Cobolli has been on the right side of some fine inches within matches.
On the other side, Arthur Fils has improved in each of the last three Rounds compared to the one before and the Frenchman crushed Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Quarter Final.
There is so much to like about the Arthur Fils style, but it is an aggressive one that can lead to mistakes when he is slightly off and that is perhaps a reason he has not reached the second week of any Grand Slam on more than the sole occasion it happened at Wimbledon in 2024.
It is also a concern at the back of the mind when backing Fils and this is a wide spread.
That aside, Arthur Fils has been crushing the serve and has really piled on the pressure on the return and that could be the case in a match against an opponent he has beaten twice before. There is also a difference between the players when it comes to overall hard court performances in 2026 and Arthur Fils looks capable of going one better than he did in Miami earlier in the year and that is reaching a maiden Masters Final.
Iga Swiatek - 3.5 games v Jessica Pegula: Winning matches is what tennis players want to do, but Iga Swiatek will not have wanted to beat Elena Rybakina in the manner the Quarter Final ended.
A potentially serious injury was picked up by Elena Rybakina, which leaves her participation in the US Open in doubt, but Iga Swiatek has to move on and she is now two wins away from winning both the Canadian and Cincinnati Masters.
This will arguably place Iga Swiatek as favourite to win the US Open and there is a suggestion that she could be facing a compromised Jessica Pegula.
It certainly looked the case as she struggled in the second set against Amanda Anisimova in the Quarter Final and some felt Jessica Pegula may even be contemplating withdrawing from the match. She then moved a double break up in the final set decider, but Pegula threw that away before rallying in a competitive tie-breaker and ultimately getting the better of her compatriot yet again.
Jessica Pegula did tell the press that she had been feeling better the longer she was on court, but the issue could have flared up before the Semi Final and this has always been a tough match up.
She has plenty of wins over Iga Swiatek, but also a number of defeats including a one-sided Quarter Final defeat on the clay courts of Rome earlier this season. Jessica Pegula has won three of the last five hard court matches, including stunning Iga Swiatek at the US Open two years ago, but the Pole has been in fine form over the last two weeks and will be the fresher player.
This is an important factor and it may just give Iga Swiatek the edge in the sets that ultimately will lead to a cover of this handicap mark set.
MY PICKS: Arthur Fils - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Iga Swiatek - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Frances Tiafoe @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Update: 17-19, - 4.81 Units (32 Units Staked, - 15.03% Yield)
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