It continues to be a frustrating week filled with selections that have been on the edge of stringing the wins together, but ultimately finding a way to come up short.
That was the case for both Tallon Griekspoor and Alexandra Eala on Friday- the former had the double break needed to cover in his eventual win over Matteo Arnaldi, but lost focus for a moment to hand one back and missed the cover by a single game.
Later Alexandra Eala had the chance to serve out the match, and to cover, but blew the opportunity and eventually needed to come through a final set decider in which more chances were wasted to put a strong win on the board.
These things happen in a long season on the Tour and the only positive is that there has been little wrong with the identification of the selections being made.
Saturday will be the beginning of the Fourth Round at the Canadian Masters and eight matches have been scheduled to be played.
However, there are plenty of competitive looking matches out there and the large majority deserve a watching brief with the two selections made both coming from the WTA Toronto tournament.
Jessica Pegula - 3.5 games v Diana Shnaider: These two met in Washington last week and both Jessica Pegula and Diana Shnaider are playing with the kind of confidence that will make them dangerous when the US Open begins later this month.
The back to back WTA 1000 events in Toronto and Cincinnati is an opportunity for players to really lay down a marker for the US Open and the top names have made it through to the Fourth Round on this side of the draw.
Both Jessica Pegula and Diana Shnaider are top 15 Seeds here in Toronto- the former has always been very comfortable on the hard courts, while the latter has shown she can perform very well on the surface and has used the run at Roland Garros to bolster the confidence.
It was Jessica Pegula who won the Semi Final played in Washington last weekend and that makes it four wins from four matches played against this younger opponent. The three hard court wins have all been in straight sets with the sole set won by Diana Shnaider coming in a clay court tournament held in Charleston, which is very different to the European clay on which she had considerable success at the second Grand Slam of the season.
Diana Shnaider played well enough in the match last week, but this has proven to be a tough match up for her in previous meetings and that was the case again in Washington.
The Pegula first serve has proven to be a key shot, but it is the impressive numbers defending the second serve that can make the difference on the scoreboard at pressurised moments. It is the World Number 3 who has had a clear edge on the second serve and that is likely going to be something we see in this Fourth Round match on Saturday.
For all of the improvements we have seen from Diana Shnaider, it should be noted the loss to Jessica Pegula last week has dropped her to 1-6 in matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts this season. The second serve and the return have simply not been good enough against the elite players of the WTA Tour and that is where Shnaider may end up coming up short again in this match.
Iga Swiatek - 1.5 games v Marta Kostyuk: Revenge has to be on the mind for Iga Swiatek who was upset in the Fourth Round at the French Open by Marta Kostyuk, one of the most improved players on the Tour this season.
That improvement is underlined by the fact that Marta Kostyuk has arrived at this WTA 1000 event at her career best World Number 11 Ranking, although cracking the top 10 is going to be the ambition through the remainder of the season.
Marta Kostyuk does have some important World Ranking Points to protect here in Toronto and at the US Open, but the Ukrainian is playing with a real confidence having reached the Semi Final at both the French Open and Wimbledon. The Asian swing after the US Open will give Kostyuk the opportunity to really push for the top 10 finish, while she is actually on the edge of the top eight and a place in the WTA Finals.
All of that will give her confidence and beating Iga Swiatek on her favourite surface can only be another boost.
However, the World Number 8 has been operating at a very high level on the hard courts and her two wins here in Montreal is a reminder of the kind of tennis that Iga Swiatek can produce.
One of the problems has been consistency within a tournament- Iga Swiatek could be cruising through the Rounds, but any time she has felt some pushback, the response has not come quickly enough and that has seen her fall away within matches.
There has been little wrong with the numbers, but it is also important to state that Iga Swiatek has yet to reach the Semi Final at any hard court tournament in 2026!
Half of the six hard court losses have been against top 10 Ranked opponents and Iga Swiatek will take heart from the fact that Marta Kostyuk is 3-3 against top 10 Ranked opponents herself this season. All of the wins came in the same event in Brisbane where she lost in the Final and Kostyuk has lost the last three hard court matches under that parameter, albeit to Elena Rybakina (twice) and Aryna Sabalenka.
The improvement in the Marta Kostyuk game that has been mentioned is highlighted by a 7-4 record against t0p 10 players overall in 2026, but Iga Swiatek may just produce a reminder of her own capabilities ahead of the US Open.
MY PICKS: Jessica Pegula - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Iga Swiatek - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Canadian Masters: 12-13, - 3.37 Units (25 Units Staked, - 13.48% Yield)
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