It has been a frustrating first few days at the Canadian Masters as far as the Tennis Picks have gone with some fine margins falling the wrong way.
So far, every day has ended up with a slight loss, but those have added up over the course of the opening few days in Montreal/Toronto and a turnaround is needed.
The Third Round is being played on Thursday and there are sixteen matches to be played, but it looks a much more difficult day to find good angles and the four matches that have passed the criteria to provide selections can be read below.
Diana Shnaider - 1.5 games v Anna Kalinskaya: These players met in an epic match in Tokyo last year and it was Anna Kalinskaya that came through in three sets on a hard court, but Diana Shnaider may have what it takes to earn a revenge victory here in Toronto in the Third Round of the Canadian Masters.
It is a quality looking match for this stage of the tournament and Diana Shnaider may believe that she should have beaten Anna Kalinskaya when they met in the Japanese capital during the Asian swing portion of the Tour. She had been the better player in the match, but Kalinskaya won the big points and that proved to be the small margin needed to edge past her compatriot.
Diana Shnaider played well in Washington last week and will have taken a huge amount of confidence from the performance at the French Open.
There is a lot to like about her all round game, but Diana Shnaider has sometimes struggled against some of the very best players on the Tour.
Anna Kalinskaya is very capable and has reached the Quarter Final at a couple of hard court events this season, including last week in Washington.
However, she is just 2-7 in hard court matches against opponents that are Ranked higher than her this season and Kalinskaya's numbers have been heavily impacted in those matches. The first serve has not been as effective and Anna Kalinskaya has struggled to impose her return and that may be where Diana Shnaider has the edge in this good looking match.
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Anastasia Potapova: She reached the Quarter Final at Roland Garros and lost a tight match, but a poor grass court campaign and an early loss in Washington means Elina Svitolina has arrived in Canada with little momentum behind her.
A tight win in the Second Round will have helped and Elina Svitolina will need little motivation when facing someone who only recently has changed nationality from Russian to Austrian.
Doing so may have earned Anastasia Potapova some respect from the Ukrainian players on the Tour, but Elina Svitolina, and others, have made it clear that they do take those matches even more seriously when they come up. That should be the case again, while Elina Svitolina has also been the stronger hard court player of the two anyway.
Anastasia Potapova is Seeded here and her win in the Second Round means she is now 9-9 on the hard courts this season.
However, that becomes 2-7 when only considering matches in which Potapova is the lower Ranked player and her second serve has been a real issue in those matches. A return player like Elina Svitolina should be able to exploit that second delivery and the World Number 9 has been dominant in matches she would expect to win.
It has been over four years since these two players met on the Tour, but Elina Svitolina should still be the stronger hard court player of the two and that may show up on the final scoreboard in the last Singles match of the day.
Cameron Norrie + 3.5 games v Alex De Minaur: Six previous matches have been split with three wins each, but it is something of a surprise to note that Cameron Norrie has won three of the four matched played on a hard court.
The British player has been in good form over the last couple of weeks and Cameron Norrie should be confident with how this match up against Alex De Minaur has worked out.
At the same time, it should be noted that Alex De Minaur's sole win over Cameron Norrie on a hard court came three years ago at the Canadian Masters, albeit when hosted by Toronto and not Montreal. Despite that, the Australian should feel pretty good about that even having lost to Cameron Norrie at the Indian Wells Masters back in March.
Alex De Minaur has been struggling for consistency in recent weeks and this has proven to be a tough match up for him, even as he has been Ranked considerably higher than Cameron Norrie. Both matches this season have been competitive affairs, but Norrie has shown he has a bit more behind the serve in the head to head and that can make the difference.
The expectation is on the shoulders of Alex De Minaur, but this spread looks a game too high.
Even in a winning effort, Cameron Norrie is certainly good enough to keep the final score within this handicap mark set as long as he continues to serve as effectively as he has been in the lead up to the US Open.
Rafael Jodar - 1.5 games v Lorenzo Musetti: These two players could be rivals for many years to come as they both look to also push up closer to the likes of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz as the leading younger players on the Tour.
It is the second tournament in a row that Rafael Jodar and Lorenzo Musetti are meeting and it was the teenager from Spain who won the Quarter Final contest in Washington last week.
Rain meant Rafael Jodar did not complete his time in Washington until Monday when he was beaten in the Final by Taylor Fritz, but he made a relatively strong start to the tournament here in Montreal. At 19 years old, tiredness cannot be a huge factor for Rafael Jodar, but it is a factor and that cannot be completely ignored.
He needed three sets in the Second Round win, whileLorenzo Musetti came through in straight sets having only recently returned to the Tour.
The Italian missed both the French Open and Wimbledon before returning in Washington last week and it has been a season of injury for Lorenzo Musetti.
His hard court numbers have been solid, but Musetti was second best in the loss to Rafael Jodar last week and he may need a bit more time to rebuild his match fitness before he can close that gap. Another week my not be enough time and Lorenzo Musetti may find himself coming up a little short in this match again, although Rafael Jodar is going to be aware of the threat posed by the higher Ranked opponent having seen that at firsthand last week in Washington.
MY PICKS: Diana Shnaider - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Cameron Norrie + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Rafael Jodar - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Canadian Masters: 6-9, - 4.25 Units (15 Units Staked, - 28.33% Yield)
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