I think it is partly the fact that the Coronavirus outbreak has basically disrupted my 2020 as well as many others, but also something to do with the fact that the English Premier League, College Football season and the NBA PlayOffs are all being played at different times than I would usually expect.
Whatever the reason, the 2020 NFL season has very much snuck up on me to the point that I honestly can't believe that Week 1 opens up on Thursday.
Last season I was pretty happy with my prediction that the Kansas City Chiefs would win the Super Bowl, although I tipped them to see off the Philadelphia Eagles in the big game.
I only actually got seven of the twelve PlayOff teams right this time last year, but injuries were one reason and jumping aboard a Hype Train was my other issue.
As I said twelve months ago, predictions for how the NFL season would have shaped up by the time we reach February are hard enough to make in December, let alone in September. This season we don't even have a pre-season to try and gather some information, while you simply don't know how effectively players will have gelled with their new teams and how Draft Picks have learnt in a new world without having that day to day contact with Coaches.
The same goes for the new Coaches joining teams to turn around the fortunes of those who have slipped from the level they wish to be operating at, but I can't go into Week 1 without having some thoughts about the way the Divisions, the PlayOffs and the season may shape up.
AFC East- the long time dominance of the New England Patriots in this Division looks to be coming to an end this season with the departure of Tom Brady, although it is a weak Division.
The Buffalo Bills look most likely to take over from the Patriots, but I don't want to draw a line through a team who won ten games with Matt Cassell at Quarter Back and especially not with Bill Belichick still very much in control. Cam Newton, if healthy, is a huge upgrade on Cassell and I do think New England can put him in a good position to be a success and in this Division there is every chance they can find a way to ten wins and earn a Wild Card spot at the very least.
Being a Division winner means a tougher schedule with both Super Bowl teams on the list as well as playing the likes of the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans and hoping Newton remains healthy all season is the big question mark.
If there is a slip the Buffalo Bills look strong Defensively and stronger Offensively which could see them finally get the better of the Patriots on their way to winning the AFC East for the first time since 1995, although I would expect both the Bills and Patriots to make the expanded PlayOffs.
There is no doubt the Miami Dolphins will be improved and they look to be under the perfect Head Coach, but they and the New York Jets are looking for a transitional season to show progression in and that is all I can really expect of both.
Winner- Buffalo Bills; Wild Card- New England Patriots
AFC North- twelve months ago I said the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers would both not be as bad as some people have advertised, but the former far exceeded my expectations and the latter were undone by crucial injuries at key moments.
Baltimore remain the team to beat with Lamar Jackson looking to bounce back from another poor PlayOff showing and I do think this is a team that has picked up some good looking pieces to keep the team chugging forward. I also think the Steelers will be better if Ben Roethlisberger can return to form after being out for almost a year, although Big Ben is definitely closer to the end of his career than the beginning.
Most expect the Cincinnati Bengals to finish bottom of the pile, but I like some of the moves they have made and if Joe Burrow hits the ground running they could at least play spoiler for others. They are still a year away, while the Cleveland Browns are hoping they are just a year behind where most expected them to be after a really poor 2019 that ended with a 6-10 record.
I hate to admit I had the Browns as the AFC North Champion twelve months ago, but it is hard to know what to expect from a team who have a first year Head Coach and a Quarter Back who showed regression in 2019. Baker Mayfield will need to be a lot better if the Browns are going to end with a Wild Card spot at the worst, but I do think he has been given every chance with an improved Offensive Line.
I've got the Ravens coming in with another Division crown, but I would not be surprised if the Steelers have better luck with their health and reach the PlayOffs and possibly even have room for the Cleveland Browns.
Winner- Baltimore Ravens; Wild Card- Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns
AFC South- you can almost draw a line through the Jacksonville Jaguars who have fallen away from the team that were minutes from reaching the Super Bowl in 2018, but the other three teams in the AFC South look capable of making some noise this season.
The Tennessee Titans reached the AFC Championship Game last season, but I still think there are holes to be filled if they are going to become a consistent top team in the Conference, while their Divisional rivals Houston Texans blew a 24-0 lead against eventual Champions Kansas City Chiefs in the PlayOffs.
Houston do look weaker with some more questionable off-season moves by General Manager/Head Coach Bill O'Brien, but they have Deshaun Watson who has shown he can carry this team on his back. However, without DeAndre Hopkins life has become much tougher for him and the Texans also carry the burden of being the Divisional Winner which means a very difficult schedule in front of them
Philip Rivers is hoping to show there is something left in the tank for the Indianapolis Colts who were hurt by Andrew Luck's retirement on the eve of the 2019 season. Even at 7-9 it feels like the Colts overachieved though and having someone like Rivers under Center certainly makes them more dangerous this time around, especially with a very good Coaching staff.
My feeling is that the schedule works best in favour of the Titans and that is why I think they win the Division- if Houston can get into their Week 8 bye with a winning record then I think they might have the momentum to go further, but I also believe a losing record would put the Texans under pressure and especially Bill O'Brien.
The Colts may sneak into the Wild Card spots if Rivers has anything left.
Winner- Tennessee Titans
AFC West- outside of a major injury to Patrick Mahomes I do think the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be winning the AFC West and I am not sure there will be many who dispute that.
The other three teams in the Division, the new Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos all have some issues around Quarter Back which will make it difficult for them, although all look to be improving teams too.
In this Division it is one thing having a strong Defensive unit, but you need to find the Offensive firepower to compete with Mahomes and the Chiefs and that is where these three teams have been focusing in the off-season.
My issue with the Raiders, Broncos and Chargers is that it feels like they can all feast on each other and that means it will be difficult to even fight for a Wild Card spot. All are improving, but may yet be a year away from truly competing.
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
NFC East- there has not been a repeat winner of the NFC East since 2004 when the Philadelphia Eagles managed to do that and this current crop of Eagles will be hoping to do the same in 2020. I do like the Eagles and as long as they remain healthier they are going to be there or thereabouts when the PlayOff spots are decided, although the Dallas Cowboys look much better than 2019 too.
Both the Washington Football Team and the New York Giants have considerable work to do to challenge at the top of the NFC East again and it does really feel like a two horse race in what was once the toughest Division in the NFL.
Nine or ten wins has been enough to win this Division three times in the last five years and I think the schedules suggest the Cowboys are more likely to reach that mark than the Eagles.
Divisional games will be crucial, while an upset here or there can swing the momentum in favour of Dallas or Philadelphia, while both will believe the additional PlayOff spot should mean at least post-season Football regardless if they go in as Division Winners or not.
Winner- Dallas Cowboys; Wild Card- Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North- for me the biggest disappointment in the NFL in 2019 had to be the Chicago Bears who finished with an 8-8 record and lots of questions about Quarter Back Mitchell Trubisky. Nick Foles has been signed to compete with Trubisky and the big question for the Bears is whether they can get enough Offense together to make sure of what is a strong, but declining Defensive unit.
This is a tough Division with positives about each team, but vulnerabilities which look like the others can exploit.
Aaron Rodgers has to be irritated by the lack of support he seems to be getting in Green Bay where the Packers decided to move up in the First Round to select his replacement rather than Offensive support for a former Super Bowl winning Quarter Back. The Packers were a fortunate looking 13-3 last season and Rodgers is going to need his Defensive unit to continue improving while hoping someone, anyone can give him additional help in the Receiving unit along with Davante Adams.
The Minnesota Vikings have lost some key performers on both sides of the ball, but they remain under strong guidance and will believe their win over the New Orleans Saints in the PlayOffs is something they can build upon in 2020. Mike Zimmer will need that to show he is the long-term answer at Head Coach for the Vikings who are looking for a first Divisional title since 2017.
Another Head Coach that will be feeling the pressure is Matt Patricia at the Detroit Lions having gone 9-22-1 in his three seasons in Detroit. Last season the Lions lost Matt Stafford which did not help their cause, and this team is a lot better than the 3-12-1 record, although they are another team that have to show they finally understand what Patricia wants from them.
I don't think the Packers will win thirteen games in 2020, but I do think they remain the team to beat in a tight Division. With Aaron Rodgers they may just edge to the crown and this is a Division where the teams could feast on one another and prevent any Wild Card opportunities arriving.
Winner- Green Bay Packers
NFC South- the moment it was announced that Tom Brady would be taking his talents to Florida the first thought turned to Brady versus Drew Brees in two Divisional games.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints look to be the teams to beat in the NFC South, but I would not want to sleep on the Atlanta Falcons who finished 2019 as strongly as they did. However, the Carolina Panthers look to be in a rebuilding phase of their development having let Ron Rivera leave as Head Coach and also breaking in a new Quarter Back in Teddy Bridgewater.
Out of the Saints and the Buccaneers I do think the continuity of the Saints will give them the slightest of edges even with a much tougher schedule on deck. Week 1 is a big chance for either team to land a significant mental blow if nothing else, but I would be surprised if either was not able to make the PlayOffs.
Both the Buccaneers and the Saints look like they have ten wins on the schedule, while the Falcons are an upset or two from hitting that mark themselves. All three teams could show enough to take advantage of the additional PlayOff spot that is going to be made available this season and it would not be a huge surprise if the Number 1 Seed in the NFC comes from this Division either.
Winner- Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Wild Card- New Orleans Saints
NFC West- a poor throw from Jimmy Garoppolo was the difference between the San Francisco 49ers winning the Super Bowl or not, although it was a season of inches at times for the NFC Conference Champions. A huge Defensive stand in Week 17 with time running down helped the 49ers edge the Seattle Seahawks and subsequently earn home field throughout the NFC PlayOffs instead of being the Number 5 Seed.
Those two teams look like they are going to be the top teams in the NFC West for another season, although the improving Arizona Cardinals will have to be afforded respect. Much will depend on Kyle Murray's development and whether the Defensive unit have improved much from 2019, so this may be a season that comes too soon for the Cardinals who will simply be looking to challenge for the Wild Card spots.
San Francisco do have questions about Jimmy G at Quarter Back and whether he is really the player to take them over the edge, but all the pieces around him remain productive and strong and I do think the 49ers will be difficult to beat barring huge injuries or serious decline of some of the veterans on the roster.
While Russell Wilson is around the Seattle Seahawks will be a challenger, but the Offensive Line concerns will always mean the Quarter Back is in danger of picking up an injury he shouldn't really be having to face. The Seahawks have always been competitive and look to have seriously strong pieces coming together, although a pass rush on the Defensive side of the ball may be missing.
I would not be surprised if the Division is decided in Week 17 again when the 49ers and Seahawks are scheduled to meet.
You also can't discount the Los Angeles Rams even if there are questions about Jared Goff and his ability from the Quarter Back position. Salary cap issues means the Rams have had to let go of some key players, but they are still a decent squad and the schedule is looking relatively kind as long as they can win those big home Divisional games.
I don't know I can trust Goff to do that, although we could have a fight between the Rams and the Cardinals for the final Wild Card spot in the Conference.
Winner- San Francisco 49ers; Wild Card- Seattle Seahawks
AFC Seeds: 1) Baltimore Ravens; 2) Kansas City Chiefs; 3) Buffalo Bills; 4) Tennessee Titans; 5) Pittsburgh Steelers; 6) New England Patriots; 7) Cleveland Browns
NFC Seeds: 1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers; 2) San Francisco 49ers; 3) Dallas Cowboys; 4) Green Bay Packers; 5) New Orleans Saints; 6) Seattle Seahawks; 7) Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl Prediction- Kansas City Chiefs over New Orleans Saints
As I said last year, these predictions can look really dumb really quickly, but it is how I feel things are going to develop at this stage, although it is something worth revisiting at some point in November or December
Week 1 Picks
The NFL is back and I am going to be adding any selections from Week 1 in this thread beginning with the opening game of the 2020 season when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans.
A good start to the season will hopefully lead to a strong 2020 campaign, although there are plenty of factors that will be at play that we won't usually be dealing with. I just hope all can stay safe during what has been a terrible few months for everyone around the globe.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: When you win a Super Bowl as a Quarter Back you have to expect a shiny, brand spanking new contract will await you, but the manner in which Patrick Mahomes played in the PlayOffs last season meant even more to the Kansas City Chiefs. No one should be surprised that Mahomes has been rewarded with the biggest contract in the history of the NFL and he is certainly in a position to help the Chiefs win multiple titles in the coming years.
They will go into the season as the favourites to win the Super Bowl again next year, although things have changed for many in the months since the Chiefs saw off the San Francisco 49ers. The 2020 NFL season will begin without fans in the Stadium and Arrowhead Stadium has long been one of the toughest road venues to play at so this could be a benefit for the visitors to this Stadium until things return to some semblance of normality.
In other sports we have seen some deterioration in home advantage, but it will be interesting to see the impact it has on the NFL. That might be the best bet for the Houston Texans to win this game and earn a measure of revenge for the historical collapse in the PlayOffs inside this Stadium last year.
Houston were leading the Kansas City Chiefs 24-0 with less than ten minutes left in the first half, but that is when Patrick Mahomes took over and had his star shine brightly as he led the Chiefs all the way back to actually lead at half time.
The majority of the starters have remained with the Kansas City Chiefs since their Super Bowl success and I don't think Andy Reid is going to allow the team to slip backwards. Damien Williams did score three Touchdowns in the win over the Texans in the PlayOffs and has decided he will not take part this season, but the First Round Draft Pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire looks like being more than capable of filling in for the Running Back.
And ultimately while Patrick Mahomes is behind Center you would think the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be able to move the ball effectively. Having no pre-season could have an impact, while some teams might not be as far along with their preparations, but you have to believe the Chiefs are going to be comfortable on the Offensive side of the ball knowing the system and what Head Coach Andy Reid wants from them.
Kansas City showed they can run the ball against the Texans in the PlayOff win, but they might have an even easier outing in Week 1 of the 2020 season with Houston losing key players on the Defensive Line. That only opens things up for Patrick Mahomes even more and I don't think the Houston Secondary is going to be good enough to hold out having allowed 75 points in two games played at Arrowhead Stadium last season.
The Texans can get some pressure up front, but Mahomes is capable of scrambling and throwing very effectively and it feels like Kansas City will be scoring plenty of points in this one.
As many teams in the AFC West believe, the only way to really compete with the Kansas City Chiefs may be loading up Offensively and trying to beat them in a shoot-out. That might have been the best policy for Houston too, but bafflingly they almost gave away DeAndre Hopkins in the off-season in a trade with the Arizona Cardinals and that means their own star Quarter Back Deshaun Watson loses his best target.
It isn't as though Houston have come out and filled the Hopkins gap either and relying on Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller to last the whole season my be foolhardy at best. Deshaun Watson has been frustrated with the direction the team have been moving to the point that some suggested he would push for a trade away from the Texans, and this looks a very difficult opener for him no matter how talented the Quarter Back is.
At the end of the day Watson will need to be protected by the Offensive Line against a strong Kansas City pass rush and that seems unlikely either which ultimately means not finding the time to throw to reliable Receivers. Where DeAndre Hopkins could make a stunning catch or two to move the chains, I am less convinced Cooks and Fuller are able to replicate that.
Instead the Texans may wish to pound the rock on the ground which can chew up the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines. Bill O'Brien decided he wanted to bring in David Johnson as part of the trade for DeAndre Hopkins and he will team up with Duke Johnson to try and control the time of possession.
David Johnson has to show he can return to something like the level he once reached for the Cardinals and the Texans did actually run the ball pretty well against the Chiefs last season. They might have some success in this one again, but things will get very difficult if Houston find themselves two scores down and that would mean shifting from the game plan and having to find Deshaun Watson time to find his own Receivers.
He is certainly capable of finding a backdoor cover with the amount of points being given to the underdog in this one, but I do think the Houston Defensive unit is going to find it difficult to contain the Chiefs.
Kansas City are 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight games as the favourite and they won't have forgotten losing in the regular season to the Texans last season even if they did earn the revenge in the PlayOffs. They are also expected to be better prepared with the continuity through from last season which means 17 of 22 starters remain on the roster and Kansas City are 4-1 against the spread in their last five Week 1 games.
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