NFL Week 1 Picks 2020 (September 10-14)

I think it is partly the fact that the Coronavirus outbreak has basically disrupted my 2020 as well as many others, but also something to do with the fact that the English Premier League, College Football season and the NBA PlayOffs are all being played at different times than I would usually expect.

Whatever the reason, the 2020 NFL season has very much snuck up on me to the point that I honestly can't believe that Week 1 opens up on Thursday.

Last season I was pretty happy with my prediction that the Kansas City Chiefs would win the Super Bowl, although I tipped them to see off the Philadelphia Eagles in the big game.

I only actually got seven of the twelve PlayOff teams right this time last year, but injuries were one reason and jumping aboard a Hype Train was my other issue.

As I said twelve months ago, predictions for how the NFL season would have shaped up by the time we reach February are hard enough to make in December, let alone in September. This season we don't even have a pre-season to try and gather some information, while you simply don't know how effectively players will have gelled with their new teams and how Draft Picks have learnt in a new world without having that day to day contact with Coaches.

The same goes for the new Coaches joining teams to turn around the fortunes of those who have slipped from the level they wish to be operating at, but I can't go into Week 1 without having some thoughts about the way the Divisions, the PlayOffs and the season may shape up.

AFC East- the long time dominance of the New England Patriots in this Division looks to be coming to an end this season with the departure of Tom Brady, although it is a weak Division.

The Buffalo Bills look most likely to take over from the Patriots, but I don't want to draw a line through a team who won ten games with Matt Cassell at Quarter Back and especially not with Bill Belichick still very much in control. Cam Newton, if healthy, is a huge upgrade on Cassell and I do think New England can put him in a good position to be a success and in this Division there is every chance they can find a way to ten wins and earn a Wild Card spot at the very least.

Being a Division winner means a tougher schedule with both Super Bowl teams on the list as well as playing the likes of the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans and hoping Newton remains healthy all season is the big question mark.

If there is a slip the Buffalo Bills look strong Defensively and stronger Offensively which could see them finally get the better of the Patriots on their way to winning the AFC East for the first time since 1995, although I would expect both the Bills and Patriots to make the expanded PlayOffs.

There is no doubt the Miami Dolphins will be improved and they look to be under the perfect Head Coach, but they and the New York Jets are looking for a transitional season to show progression in and that is all I can really expect of both.

Winner- Buffalo Bills; Wild Card- New England Patriots

AFC North- twelve months ago I said the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers would both not be as bad as some people have advertised, but the former far exceeded my expectations and the latter were undone by crucial injuries at key moments.

Baltimore remain the team to beat with Lamar Jackson looking to bounce back from another poor PlayOff showing and I do think this is a team that has picked up some good looking pieces to keep the team chugging forward. I also think the Steelers will be better if Ben Roethlisberger can return to form after being out for almost a year, although Big Ben is definitely closer to the end of his career than the beginning.

Most expect the Cincinnati Bengals to finish bottom of the pile, but I like some of the moves they have made and if Joe Burrow hits the ground running they could at least play spoiler for others. They are still a year away, while the Cleveland Browns are hoping they are just a year behind where most expected them to be after a really poor 2019 that ended with a 6-10 record.

I hate to admit I had the Browns as the AFC North Champion twelve months ago, but it is hard to know what to expect from a team who have a first year Head Coach and a Quarter Back who showed regression in 2019. Baker Mayfield will need to be a lot better if the Browns are going to end with a Wild Card spot at the worst, but I do think he has been given every chance with an improved Offensive Line.

I've got the Ravens coming in with another Division crown, but I would not be surprised if the Steelers have better luck with their health and reach the PlayOffs and possibly even have room for the Cleveland Browns.

Winner- Baltimore Ravens; Wild Card- Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns

AFC South- you can almost draw a line through the Jacksonville Jaguars who have fallen away from the team that were minutes from reaching the Super Bowl in 2018, but the other three teams in the AFC South look capable of making some noise this season.

The Tennessee Titans reached the AFC Championship Game last season, but I still think there are holes to be filled if they are going to become a consistent top team in the Conference, while their Divisional rivals Houston Texans blew a 24-0 lead against eventual Champions Kansas City Chiefs in the PlayOffs.

Houston do look weaker with some more questionable off-season moves by General Manager/Head Coach Bill O'Brien, but they have Deshaun Watson who has shown he can carry this team on his back. However, without DeAndre Hopkins life has become much tougher for him and the Texans also carry the burden of being the Divisional Winner which means a very difficult schedule in front of them

Philip Rivers is hoping to show there is something left in the tank for the Indianapolis Colts who were hurt by Andrew Luck's retirement on the eve of the 2019 season. Even at 7-9 it feels like the Colts overachieved though and having someone like Rivers under Center certainly makes them more dangerous this time around, especially with a very good Coaching staff.

My feeling is that the schedule works best in favour of the Titans and that is why I think they win the Division- if Houston can get into their Week 8 bye with a winning record then I think they might have the momentum to go further, but I also believe a losing record would put the Texans under pressure and especially Bill O'Brien.

The Colts may sneak into the Wild Card spots if Rivers has anything left.

Winner- Tennessee Titans

AFC West- outside of a major injury to Patrick Mahomes I do think the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be winning the AFC West and I am not sure there will be many who dispute that.

The other three teams in the Division, the new Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos all have some issues around Quarter Back which will make it difficult for them, although all look to be improving teams too.

In this Division it is one thing having a strong Defensive unit, but you need to find the Offensive firepower to compete with Mahomes and the Chiefs and that is where these three teams have been focusing in the off-season.

My issue with the Raiders, Broncos and Chargers is that it feels like they can all feast on each other and that means it will be difficult to even fight for a Wild Card spot. All are improving, but may yet be a year away from truly competing.

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs

NFC East- there has not been a repeat winner of the NFC East since 2004 when the Philadelphia Eagles managed to do that and this current crop of Eagles will be hoping to do the same in 2020. I do like the Eagles and as long as they remain healthier they are going to be there or thereabouts when the PlayOff spots are decided, although the Dallas Cowboys look much better than 2019 too.

Both the Washington Football Team and the New York Giants have considerable work to do to challenge at the top of the NFC East again and it does really feel like a two horse race in what was once the toughest Division in the NFL.

Nine or ten wins has been enough to win this Division three times in the last five years and I think the schedules suggest the Cowboys are more likely to reach that mark than the Eagles.

Divisional games will be crucial, while an upset here or there can swing the momentum in favour of Dallas or Philadelphia, while both will believe the additional PlayOff spot should mean at least post-season Football regardless if they go in as Division Winners or not.

Winner- Dallas Cowboys; Wild Card- Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North- for me the biggest disappointment in the NFL in 2019 had to be the Chicago Bears who finished with an 8-8 record and lots of questions about Quarter Back Mitchell Trubisky. Nick Foles has been signed to compete with Trubisky and the big question for the Bears is whether they can get enough Offense together to make sure of what is a strong, but declining Defensive unit.

This is a tough Division with positives about each team, but vulnerabilities which look like the others can exploit.

Aaron Rodgers has to be irritated by the lack of support he seems to be getting in Green Bay where the Packers decided to move up in the First Round to select his replacement rather than Offensive support for a former Super Bowl winning Quarter Back. The Packers were a fortunate looking 13-3 last season and Rodgers is going to need his Defensive unit to continue improving while hoping someone, anyone can give him additional help in the Receiving unit along with Davante Adams.

The Minnesota Vikings have lost some key performers on both sides of the ball, but they remain under strong guidance and will believe their win over the New Orleans Saints in the PlayOffs is something they can build upon in 2020. Mike Zimmer will need that to show he is the long-term answer at Head Coach for the Vikings who are looking for a first Divisional title since 2017.

Another Head Coach that will be feeling the pressure is Matt Patricia at the Detroit Lions having gone 9-22-1 in his three seasons in Detroit. Last season the Lions lost Matt Stafford which did not help their cause, and this team is a lot better than the 3-12-1 record, although they are another team that have to show they finally understand what Patricia wants from them.

I don't think the Packers will win thirteen games in 2020, but I do think they remain the team to beat in a tight Division. With Aaron Rodgers they may just edge to the crown and this is a Division where the teams could feast on one another and prevent any Wild Card opportunities arriving.

Winner- Green Bay Packers

NFC South- the moment it was announced that Tom Brady would be taking his talents to Florida the first thought turned to Brady versus Drew Brees in two Divisional games.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New Orleans Saints look to be the teams to beat in the NFC South, but I would not want to sleep on the Atlanta Falcons who finished 2019 as strongly as they did. However, the Carolina Panthers look to be in a rebuilding phase of their development having let Ron Rivera leave as Head Coach and also breaking in a new Quarter Back in Teddy Bridgewater.

Out of the Saints and the Buccaneers I do think the continuity of the Saints will give them the slightest of edges even with a much tougher schedule on deck. Week 1 is a big chance for either team to land a significant mental blow if nothing else, but I would be surprised if either was not able to make the PlayOffs.

Both the Buccaneers and the Saints look like they have ten wins on the schedule, while the Falcons are an upset or two from hitting that mark themselves. All three teams could show enough to take advantage of the additional PlayOff spot that is going to be made available this season and it would not be a huge surprise if the Number 1 Seed in the NFC comes from this Division either.

Winner- Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Wild Card- New Orleans Saints

NFC West- a poor throw from Jimmy Garoppolo was the difference between the San Francisco 49ers winning the Super Bowl or not, although it was a season of inches at times for the NFC Conference Champions. A huge Defensive stand in Week 17 with time running down helped the 49ers edge the Seattle Seahawks and subsequently earn home field throughout the NFC PlayOffs instead of being the Number 5 Seed.

Those two teams look like they are going to be the top teams in the NFC West for another season, although the improving Arizona Cardinals will have to be afforded respect. Much will depend on Kyle Murray's development and whether the Defensive unit have improved much from 2019, so this may be a season that comes too soon for the Cardinals who will simply be looking to challenge for the Wild Card spots.

San Francisco do have questions about Jimmy G at Quarter Back and whether he is really the player to take them over the edge, but all the pieces around him remain productive and strong and I do think the 49ers will be difficult to beat barring huge injuries or serious decline of some of the veterans on the roster.

While Russell Wilson is around the Seattle Seahawks will be a challenger, but the Offensive Line concerns will always mean the Quarter Back is in danger of picking up an injury he shouldn't really be having to face. The Seahawks have always been competitive and look to have seriously strong pieces coming together, although a pass rush on the Defensive side of the ball may be missing.

I would not be surprised if the Division is decided in Week 17 again when the 49ers and Seahawks are scheduled to meet.

You also can't discount the Los Angeles Rams even if there are questions about Jared Goff and his ability from the Quarter Back position. Salary cap issues means the Rams have had to let go of some key players, but they are still a decent squad and the schedule is looking relatively kind as long as they can win those big home Divisional games.

I don't know I can trust Goff to do that, although we could have a fight between the Rams and the Cardinals for the final Wild Card spot in the Conference.

Winner- San Francisco 49ers; Wild Card- Seattle Seahawks

AFC Seeds: 1) Baltimore Ravens; 2) Kansas City Chiefs; 3) Buffalo Bills; 4) Tennessee Titans; 5) Pittsburgh Steelers; 6) New England Patriots; 7) Cleveland Browns

NFC Seeds: 1) Tampa Bay Buccaneers; 2) San Francisco 49ers; 3) Dallas Cowboys; 4) Green Bay Packers; 5) New Orleans Saints; 6) Seattle Seahawks; 7) Philadelphia Eagles

Super Bowl Prediction- Kansas City Chiefs over New Orleans Saints

As I said last year, these predictions can look really dumb really quickly, but it is how I feel things are going to develop at this stage, although it is something worth revisiting at some point in November or December

Week 1 Picks

The NFL is back and I am going to be adding any selections from Week 1 in this thread beginning with the opening game of the 2020 season when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Houston Texans.

A good start to the season will hopefully lead to a strong 2020 campaign, although there are plenty of factors that will be at play that we won't usually be dealing with. I just hope all can stay safe during what has been a terrible few months for everyone around the globe.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: When you win a Super Bowl as a Quarter Back you have to expect a shiny, brand spanking new contract will await you, but the manner in which Patrick Mahomes played in the PlayOffs last season meant even more to the Kansas City Chiefs. No one should be surprised that Mahomes has been rewarded with the biggest contract in the history of the NFL and he is certainly in a position to help the Chiefs win multiple titles in the coming years.

They will go into the season as the favourites to win the Super Bowl again next year, although things have changed for many in the months since the Chiefs saw off the San Francisco 49ers. The 2020 NFL season will begin without fans in the Stadium and Arrowhead Stadium has long been one of the toughest road venues to play at so this could be a benefit for the visitors to this Stadium until things return to some semblance of normality.

In other sports we have seen some deterioration in home advantage, but it will be interesting to see the impact it has on the NFL. That might be the best bet for the Houston Texans to win this game and earn a measure of revenge for the historical collapse in the PlayOffs inside this Stadium last year.

Houston were leading the Kansas City Chiefs 24-0 with less than ten minutes left in the first half, but that is when Patrick Mahomes took over and had his star shine brightly as he led the Chiefs all the way back to actually lead at half time.

The majority of the starters have remained with the Kansas City Chiefs since their Super Bowl success and I don't think Andy Reid is going to allow the team to slip backwards. Damien Williams did score three Touchdowns in the win over the Texans in the PlayOffs and has decided he will not take part this season, but the First Round Draft Pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire looks like being more than capable of filling in for the Running Back.

And ultimately while Patrick Mahomes is behind Center you would think the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be able to move the ball effectively. Having no pre-season could have an impact, while some teams might not be as far along with their preparations, but you have to believe the  Chiefs are going to be comfortable on the Offensive side of the ball knowing the system and what Head Coach Andy Reid wants from them.

Kansas City showed they can run the ball against the Texans in the PlayOff win, but they might have an even easier outing in Week 1 of the 2020 season with Houston losing key players on the Defensive Line. That only opens things up for Patrick Mahomes even more and I don't think the Houston Secondary is going to be good enough to hold out having allowed 75 points in two games played at Arrowhead Stadium last season.

The Texans can get some pressure up front, but Mahomes is capable of scrambling and throwing very effectively and it feels like Kansas City will be scoring plenty of points in this one.

As many teams in the AFC West believe, the only way to really compete with the Kansas City Chiefs may be loading up Offensively and trying to beat them in a shoot-out. That might have been the best policy for Houston too, but bafflingly they almost gave away DeAndre Hopkins in the off-season in a trade with the Arizona Cardinals and that means their own star Quarter Back Deshaun Watson loses his best target.

It isn't as though Houston have come out and filled the Hopkins gap either and relying on Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller to last the whole season my be foolhardy at best. Deshaun Watson has been frustrated with the direction the team have been moving to the point that some suggested he would push for a trade away from the Texans, and this looks a very difficult opener for him no matter how talented the Quarter Back is.

At the end of the day Watson will need to be protected by the Offensive Line against a strong Kansas City pass rush and that seems unlikely either which ultimately means not finding the time to throw to reliable Receivers. Where DeAndre Hopkins could make a stunning catch or two to move the chains, I am less convinced Cooks and Fuller are able to replicate that.

Instead the Texans may wish to pound the rock on the ground which can chew up the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines. Bill O'Brien decided he wanted to bring in David Johnson as part of the trade for DeAndre Hopkins and he will team up with Duke Johnson to try and control the time of possession.

David Johnson has to show he can return to something like the level he once reached for the Cardinals and the Texans did actually run the ball pretty well against the Chiefs last season. They might have some success in this one again, but things will get very difficult if Houston find themselves two scores down and that would mean shifting from the game plan and having to find Deshaun Watson time to find his own Receivers.

He is certainly capable of finding a backdoor cover with the amount of points being given to the underdog in this one, but I do think the Houston Defensive unit is going to find it difficult to contain the Chiefs.

Kansas City are 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight games as the favourite and they won't have forgotten losing in the regular season to the Texans last season even if they did earn the revenge in the PlayOffs. They are also expected to be better prepared with the continuity through from last season which means 17 of 22 starters remain on the roster and Kansas City are 4-1 against the spread in their last five Week 1 games.

I can't ignore how well the road team has done when these teams meet, but I think Kansas City will be coming out to make a statement and look to have too much Offensive firepower for the Houston Texans.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots Pick: Week 17 of the 2019 NFL season saw the Miami Dolphins upset the New England Patriots and forced their Divisional rivals into the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs. The Dolphins were 16 point underdogs in that game, but the upset was compounded when the Patriots were beaten by the Tennessee Titans and Tom Brady's final pass of the season was a Pick-Six.

Even then not many would have thought that was going to be the final pass Tom Brady would throw as a New England Patriot, but that has turned out to be the case as he left for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. For a while it looked like New England would go into the 2020 season with an inexperienced Quarter Back, but the decision was made to sign Cam Newton and he at least will begin this season looking healthy.

I have no doubt about Cam Newton's ability and the quality of his Receiving corps is perhaps something that the Quarter Back has become accustomed to in his time with the Carolina Panthers. However, the scrambling ability is something the Patriots have simply not had before during the tenure of Tom Brady and I do think they would have spent the off-season tailoring the Offensive unit to be one that runs first.

Last season the Patriots did struggle to establish the run and that should change in the 2020 season as long as Newton remains healthy and effective. The Dolphins will feel some of the signings they have made and the inside knowledge of the New England Patriots will help defending the run, but this new system is one that many of the former players will likely be unfamiliar with and I do anticipate the Patriots having a strong day on the ground.

Anything else will make it very difficult for New England to have success because Newton will not be able to target a strong Receiving unit and this Dolphins Secondary have certainly picked up the talent on the Defensive unit. The Patriots can look to make the quick passes if the run is working for them, but they can't expect to have a dominant day through the air and it all is going to be based on how much they can get out of what should be a good rushing attack.

Changes haven't just been made on the Offensive side of the ball, but New England have lost key performers on their Defensive Line and Linebacker corps on the team. The Secondary still has plenty of experience and talent, but New England will be looking to show what they learnt from the Week 17 upset to the Dolphins who will still have Ryan Fitzpatrick starting at Quarter Back.

Upgrades have been made to the team at Running Back in the year after the Dolphins finished with the lowest yards per attempt average in the NFL. Matt Breida and Jordan Howard are going to give the Dolphins a one-two punch at the Running Back position and Miami would have taken note of how effective Tennessee were in the PlayOffs with Derrick Henry.

No one should confuse Breida or Howard with Henry though and so it may still be a tough day for the Dolphins against one of the better Defensive Lines in the NFL in 2019. While they have lost some of the power of last season, the Patriots will still be looking for Ryan Fitzpatrick to beat them through the air as he did in Week 17 and this time I think the Secondary will be more ready for him.

The Quarter Back did play well for the Dolphins last season so has to be respected, but there is still every chance that Fitzpatrick will have one of his four Interception days which have blown up many of his previous teams in the past. He will be confident, but Fitzpatrick likely knows he is also on a short leash with Tua Tagovailoa the First Round Pick who has looked far healthier than anyone would think he would be at this stage of his rookie season in the NFL.

Miami covered here last season, but had not in their previous seven visits to New England and I do think Bill Belichick is going to have his team prepared to show the rest of the NFL that the departure of Tom Brady does not mean an end to a dynasty. The future Hall of Fame Head Coach prepares his teams methodically and he will be looking for revenge for the loss in Week 17 which proved to be more than a single defeat for the Patriots.

I love Brian Flores and the way he has motivated Miami in his time as Head Coach so have nothing but respect for him. This group of players is significantly more talented than the group he had last season, but going back into Foxboro against an angry team looking to prove something may be too much for the Dolphins to cope with in Week 1.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

New England Patriots - 6.5 Points @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Minnesota Vikings - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Baltimore Ravens - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Washington Football Team + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Indianapolis Colts - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals + 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Los Angeles Rams + 2 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Week 1 Picks 2015 (September 10-14)

The NFL season is finally kicking off a little later than usual thanks to August covering five weekends and the full American Football season is now underway after College Football kicked off last week.

Sunday's won't be the same again, but you can still have a quick read of the season preview I put together with thoughts about all 32 teams that are looking to get to the Super Bowl. You can have a read of that here.


There is no doubting that the NFL landscape has been dominated by the scandal of 'Deflate-Gate' and I am stunned Tom Brady has gotten away with no suspension to begin the season. There might be no real evidence after he deliberately destroyed his phone, but anyone who still defends the New England Patriots as an organisation that doesn't just push the boundaries but regularly pisses over it have to be in the minority.

I don't care any more, it will make the Miami Dolphins winning the AFC East all the sweeter if Brady plays every game and this whole issue has seriously run its course.

However, I expect the Over/Under to be around 500 when it comes to the commentators mentioning 'Deflate-Gate' during coverage of the opening game of the new season as the New England Patriots host the Pittsburgh Steelers with both teams shorn of key players through injury and suspension.


Anyway, the Week 1 Picks will all be kept in this one thread although I don't anticipate fully completing the post until Saturday morning once the College Football Week 2 Picks and Weekend Football Picks are posted too.

Week 1 Picks

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots Pick: Tom Brady is back so there won't be any excuses from the New England Patriots fans if their team can't continue a strong run of Super Bowl Champions performances in Week 1 of the new season.

Since 2000, the defending Super Bowl Champions are 12-3 straight up and 10-4-1 against the spread and the return of Brady has seen Vegas bump this up to the key number of 7.

There are changes in New England, particularly on the Defensive side of the ball, but Bill Belichick has usually found the pieces to make his team effective on that side. He will be boosted by facing a Pittsburgh Steelers team that is missing both Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant and it is Bell at Running Back that looks to be the biggest problem for the visitors.

Bell does so much for the Steelers when it comes to running the ball and catching it out of the backfield, but he is also an effective blocker and I am not sure DeAngelo Williams is able to replicate that. Dri Archer is a weapon to get out into space and Antonio Brown is going to get his numbers, but I don't know if Ben Roethlisberger is consistently able to move the chains.

On the other side Dick LeBeau has moved on this off-season and the legendary Defensive Co-Ordinator is going to be tough to replace. The Steelers seem to be going through a transition on the Defensive unit and Tom Brady is going to be in the mood to flip the bird at the NFL which makes him dangerous.

I have no doubt that Brady can turn it up when he feels he has something to prove and he still has Rob Gronkowski as a huge match up problem in the middle of the field. Julian Edelman is banged up but should start, while LeGarrette Blount is suspended at Running Back meaning the likes of Brandon Bolden and James White will likely get the call with the hot hand staying on the field. Look out for White in situations you would have found Shane Vereen too and that is another match up problem for the Steelers to try and overcome.

New England have never lost to Pittsburgh at home with Brady at Quarter Back and they have won those three games by an average of 20 points per game. The Patriots have covered the spread in each and I think Brady puts in a huge performance in this one in the face of all the criticism he has had all summer, plus the Super Bowl Champion record is hard to ignore as they clearly have rode the momentum and emotion to a Week 1 win.


Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Pick: The NFL has tried to keep the schedule interesting through the season and that has led to a trend of early Divisional games as well as those in the last few weeks of the season. Two of the oldest rivals in American Football will meet in Week 1 and it is up to the Chicago Bears to turn things around against the NFC North Champions Green Bay Packers.

Despite the loss of Jordy Nelson in the last month, Aaron Rodgers is back and not many will be looking for the Packers to miss a beat Offensively. Randall Cobb escaped a big injury and looks set to play, while the Packers have been high on Davonte Adams, as have I.

I expect a big season from Adams and I think the Chicago Bears are going to need time to adapt to what new Defensive Co-Ordinator Vic Fangio wants from them while the release of Tim Jennings will affect this Secondary. I simply don't know how the Bears will consistently get off the field if the Packers go back to pass, let alone if they simply use Eddie Lacy to pound the space that is likely to exist up front where the Bears are dropping men into coverage to stop Rodgers.

Lacy had a strong 2014 season and he can get 2015 off to a flyer both as a Receiver out of the backfield or pounding the rock between the tackles. Either way the Green Bay Packers will be looking for a statement win after the stunning way they lost the NFC Championship Game and I expect Rodgers to have a really strong day.

The Bears gave up 93 points to the Packers last year and unsurprisingly were blown out in both games. John Fox has come into replace Marc Trestman as Head Coach and he has brought Adam Gase with him as Offensive Co-Ordinator from Denver, although Gase has some work to do to restore Jay Cutler's confidence.

One big problem that Cutler might have is now that Brandon Marshall has been shipped off, that the likes of Kevin White and Alshon Jeffrey might be missing in the Receiver department. He can hand the ball to Matt Forte and hope the Running Back can keep the Defense honest, while he is also is a threat out of the backfield, but Cutler could be under some pressure from the Green Bay front seven.

Throughout his career, Cutler has made bad decisions with the pressure in his face and I think the chance of the Packers winning the turnover is very high.

Green Bay have covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 games against the Chicago Bears and the Packers are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 games as the road favourite in Divisional games. The Bears are just 1-5 against the spread in their last 6 games as a home underdog, while John Fox was 1-4 against the spread as the home underdog as Denver Broncos Head Coach in the regular season and 1-6 when adding in Play Off games.

The Packers look to have too much talent on both sides of the ball and I like them to cover what may look a big number as the road favourite in the Divisional game.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans Pick: I am going to have a small interest on the Houston Texans to cover a small spread and get their 2015 season off to a flying start.

They won't be able to beat the Kansas City Chiefs easily though as these two teams have some similarities as to what they are trying to achieve. Both teams have a game manager at Quarter Back and will look to win the game behind a dominant Defensive performance.

The Houston Texans Defensive Line looks like being one of the best in the NFL and they will look for Vince Wilfork to prevent Kansas City being able to run the ball effectively. Jamaal Charles will still be a threat catching the ball out of the backfield, but JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney should be able to crash the pocket and Alex Smith might not have the time to get the ball out to him.

Of course Brian Hoyer has to take note of where Justin Houston and Tamba Hali are coming from on the other side of the ball, but a couple of injuries in the Secondary and the absence of Dontari Poe might affect the Chiefs.

I think the game against Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football could be a distraction to the Chiefs and I believe Hoyer makes the bigger plays than Smith at Quarter Back.

Both the Chiefs and the Texans have considerable success as the small underdog and small favourite respectively (three points or less points), but I like the Houston Texans in this one.


Miami Dolphins @ Washington Redskins Pick: There are plenty of Conference games and a few Divisional games to be played in Week 1 which have huge implications later in the season. Non-Conference games don't always have the same impact, but I don't think any team wants to lose in Week 1 and no team can afford to 'overlook' any game at this stage of the season.

The Washington Redskins fans might be 'overlooking' the whole season as the mess that is the franchise continues to dominate the sporting headlines for the wrong reasons. Jay Gruden and the Coaching Staff would clearly love to move on from what looks like the failed Robert Griffin III era, but Dan Snyder's ownership voice won't allow for any talks of a trade.

It won't be on the mind of Gruden this week who has already made the decision to name Kirk Cousins as the starting Quarter Back with RG3 suffering a concussion in the pre-season. However, it doesn't feel like Cousins is being thrown into a great situation as he is playing behind an Offensive Line that looks like it will struggle in pass protection.

Facing the Miami Dolphins Defensive Line is not what the Washington Redskins would have wanted in Week 1 as they try to get their Offensive Line some consistency. Now they face a Dolphins team that might have one of the best Defensive Lines in the NFL and the huge Free Agency signing of Ndamukong Suh gives them a body alongside Earl Mitchell to improve on the poor rushing Defense numbers from 2014.

That is key for them here as they look to contain Alfred Morris and force Cousins to beat them through the air. With Suh getting a push, the likes of Cameron Wake could have a career year when it comes to Sack totals and I don't know if Cousins will have as much time to attack the Dolphins down the field as he would like.

I am also expecting big things from Ryan Tannehill and a supporting cast of young Receivers as well as veterans like Greg Jennings and Jordan Cameron. He should at least set the marker for the season as the Washington Defense tries to come together a number of moves in the off-season. Tannehill should have enough time to make his plays from Quarter Back as I also think LaMar Miller can have success on the ground.

The Redskins are now just 2-8 against the spread as the home underdog in non-Divisional games in recent seasons. Miami did cover both games as the road favourite in non-Divisional games last season and I do think they are the superior team and can visit the nation's capital and win this by a touchdown or perhaps more.


New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: This is a big season for the New Orleans Saints who might not have a much of a window left with Drew Brees at Quarter Back to win another Super Bowl. Cap issues have meant the New Orleans Saints have been willing to trade some major Offensive weapons away to make sure they can reinvest in a Defensive unit that was atrocious last season.

The likes of Kenny Stills and Jimmy Graham have moved on and it looks like the New Orleans Saints are going to be a little more of a power running team these days. Brandin Cooks could be ready for a breakthrough season, but he is going up against a tough Arizona Secondary even if Antonio Cromartie has left the team.

Patrick Peterson didn't have a great 2014 season, but Arizona are expecting him to be a lot better this time and he will likely shadow Cooks for much of this contest, although it will still be difficult to shut down New Orleans Offensively.

The big question is how much have Rob Ryan and Dennis Allen been able to do with a Defense that finished Number 31 in the NFL last season and who allowed over 380 yards per game. While the Defensive Line is intact, New Orleans have had a high turnover in the Linebacker and Secondary units and we will see if Ryan has been able to make them efficient and able to get off the field.

New Orleans struggled to do that last season, but they will feel they can get some pressure on Carson Palmer who returns for the Arizona Cardinals from an injury that curtailed his 2014 season. I expect Palmer is going to have some strong numbers in this one as he has some solid weapons at his disposal in Receiver positions, although will be hoping the Cardinals find a running game to complement him.

There have definitely been some nice pieces added by the New Orleans Saints for the Defensive side of the ball to show an improvement from last season. Losing Stills and Graham means there are some big shoes to fill for the replacements and the Saints have struggled to a 3-7 record against the spread as the road underdog in recent seasons.

Arizona also have a very strong record at home since Bruce Arians arrived as Head Coach and they are 7-2-1 against the spread as the home favourite over the last two seasons. The Cardinals haven't been the best favourite of three points of less in recent years, but the look to be the better team going into the new season.

The small spread for a team that has been dominant at home under Bruce Arians (13-3 straight up last two seasons) can't be ignored by me and I like the Cardinals to cover.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Oakland Raiders Pick: The Oakland Raiders have been something of a mess for the last fourteen seasons since reaching the Super Bowl in 2002, but Mark Davis might be changing the culture of the franchise. Instead of wasting a lot of money in Free Agency for players that have been over-rated, Oakland are concentrating on building through the Draft.

Credit them for picking Derek Carr, Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper in the last eighteen months as these three could be the cornerstones of Raiders football for the next decade. I like all three players and they have been given some solid veteran support with the Raiders anything but the pushover some may perceive them to be.

The Raiders are a young team that are looking to get things done the right way and they won't rush things, but the Cincinnati Bengals can't afford to have a similar outlook. There is a small window of opportunity for the Bengals to finally get something done in the Play Offs having played so well in the regular season, but failure to do that might see some big changes to be made.

Cincinnati have a Defense that will cause teams some problems, but they are not as strong as recent seasons, while the belief in Andy Dalton is wavering in the fan base. Marvin Lewis might also be asked to move on if the Bengals can't win a Play Off game and they won't have it easy moving the ball in this one if the Offensive Line can't improve their play.

Jeremy Hill is capable of breaking some big runs, but Oakland played the run well last season and they might force Andy Dalton to try and beat them. While he will be able to team up with AJ Green for some big gains through the air, the Raiders could get some real pressure on Dalton by pushing through the Offensive Line and it won't be easy for the Bengals.

The Oakland Raiders might only have ended last season at 4-4 against the spread as the home underdog, but dealing with the expectation on the road is not a spot the Cincinnati Bengals have thrived in. The Bengals are 1-5 against the spread as the road favourite in the last couple of years and I think Oakland could be one of the most improved teams in the NFL.

Taking the points look to be the call.


Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos Pick: Peyton Manning ended the 2014 season in disappointing fashion to the point that some were suggesting it was time for him to hang up his cleats and retire from the NFL. However, Manning is a super competitor and believes a torn quad was the reason for his struggles in the last six weeks which saw Manning end with another one and done in the Play Offs.

In two of his three years in Denver, the Broncos have lost their first Play Off game and those losses sandwich a run to the Super Bowl before being blown out by the Seattle Seahawks. While John Elway wanted to keep Peyton Manning, Head Coach John Fox was seen as dispensable and has been replaced by Gary Kubiak at that position.

Kubiak seems a strange fit with Manning as he is much happier seeing his team pound the ball on the ground and then use the Quarter Back in play-action and short screens. Peyton Manning is much better than that and surrounded by some top Receivers, while going up against Baltimore who are notoriously tough to run against should see the new Head Coach adapt to a new situation.

I think Manning is going to want to show the rest of the NFL there is still plenty left in his game and he has a good record against Baltimore in the regular season including throwing seven touchdown passes in the opening game of the 2013 season. While Baltimore have a solid Linebacker and Secondary corps, it will still be difficult to slow down a Peyton Maning Offense and the key for the Ravens is going to try and keep up with Denver.

However, Wade Phillips comes in as the new Defensive Co-Ordinator and looks to have all the pieces he could have asked for as he switches the Broncos to a 3-4 Defense. The Defensive unit might actually be even stronger than the Offensive side of the ball which goes to show how highly they are rated and Denver are going to put some pressure on Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Offense.

With Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware now coming from Linebacker, the Baltimore Offensive Line will be put under some pressure to keep Flacco upright. It doesn't help that Torrey Smith has moved on and Breshad Perriman looks set to miss out so it could be tough for Flacco to move the chains through the air.

I think Justin Forsett will have little room too to keep the Offense in third and manageable spots and Baltimore could have some real difficulty keeping up with Denver.

The Broncos are 16-7 against the spread as the home favourite since Peyton Manning came in as the new Quarter Back and they were 15-5 before the quad injury that affected him. Denver have also been far too good for Baltimore in the last couple of regular season games and the Broncos have covered in those games too.

Road underdogs in Week 1 that made the Play Offs the previous season are 5-21-1 against the spread since 1989 too and I like the Broncos to get their season off to a positive start. I don't think Denver look ahead to a big Divisional game on Thursday Night Football and can cover this number.


New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The NFC East might be the best Division in the NFL with two teams amongst the leading contenders for the Super Bowl and another that has upset the odds in recent years for surprising successes.

The Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants open up Sunday Night Football in Week 1 and I like the underdog in the game to find a way to keep this close, although I am still expecting Dallas have enough to win the game.

I think the Cowboys could have the best Offensive Line in the NFL and even the loss of DeMarco Murray might not slow down this Offense. Much of their success of last season was based on being able to run the ball, but the Cowboys have players who can make up for the loss of their leading rusher in 2014, although perhaps not the consistent player in that regard.

However, Dallas won't mind using a committee at Running Back and I think they bully the line of scrimmage in this one. That will only open things up for Tony Romo to find his big time Receivers in Dez Bryant, Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley and Jason Witten and it is difficult to imagine the Cowboys can't move the chains in this one.

On the other hand, I am expecting the New York Giants to have success in this one too, especially as Eli Manning with his new contract in tow will be facing a Secondary that is looking short of numbers and quality. No Victor Cruz is a blow, but I think Manning is going to have time to hit the likes of Odell Beckham and Larry Donnell with Dallas missing the likes of Rolando McClain and Greg Hardy from the Defense.

A key for the New York Giants is to find something of a running game to control the clock and keep this Dallas Offense off the field. Andre Williams and Rashad Jennings are going to both get their touches, but they have to hit the holes better than they did last season to help the Giants improve their 3.6 yards per carry from last season.

The Giants weren't at their best as the road underdog last season, but they have a strong 11-6 record against the spread as the road underdog in Divisional games over the last eight years. The Dallas Cowboys have struggled as a home favourite though, going 6-15 against the spread in this position in Divisional games over the same time period.

New York haven't covered the spread in their last couple of visits to Arlington, but there are enough questions about Dallas Defensively to think the Giants are getting too many points in this one.

MY PICKS: New England Patriots - 7 Points @ 1.95 Betway (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Houston Texans - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New York Giants + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)