Jessica Pegula - 5.5 games v Elena Gabriela Ruse: After reaching the Cincinnati Final, Jessica Pegula may simply be glad that a potential injury earlier in the tournament has not been one that could have dented her hopes of winning the US Open before this final Grand Slam of the season got underway.
She has been very close in the last couple of years.
Jessica Pegula reached the Final in New York City two years ago and the Semi Final last year, but the top of the leading contenders all have vulnerabilities in 2026. Her main rival has been Aryna Sabalenka, but Jessica Pegula will know the current World Number 1 is struggling for form and that leaves a door open.
It is clear where Jessica Pegula stands in American tennis that she has been given one of the prime spots on Sunday, but that also means pressure to deliver. Jessica Pegula has not been beaten in the First Round here since 2019, and it would be a real surprise if Elena Gabriela Ruse is able to reset that mark this year.
The last time we saw Elena Gabriela Ruse, she was well on her way to being beaten by Alexandra Eala in Cincinnati, but withdrew with an injury in the middle of the second set.
She was not likely to turn that match around, but it was also an injury that was not expected to keep her out of this Grand Slam.
Elena Gabriela Ruse has produced some steady hard court numbers this season, but there are levels to the sport and it has been a big struggle when facing top 50 Ranked opponents. In those matches, Ruse has a 2-7 record and she has really had issues in protecting the second serve, while simply not offering enough threat on the return to put any consistent pressure on the better players faced.
Changing those narratives in the First Round looks beyond the World Number 63 and Jessica Pegula can get her latest campaign to win a Grand Slam underway with a solid opening victory before earning a couple of days to rest and recover.
Alex Michelsen - 5.5 games v Federico Cina: The US Open has to be the big target for every single American player who is working their way onto the Tour and Alex Michelsen will be hoping he can have an impact here this season.
The last couple of years have both ended prematurely for the World Number 45, but Alex Michelsen has won a Challenger event on the hard courts in the build up to the final Grand Slam of the season and played at a decent level when the Tour moved into the bigger hard court events over the last month.
All of that can help Alex Michelsen and he has been given a decent opening draw considering he is not in a Seeded position.
Of course that does not mean Michelsen can approach this match with a poor attitude and instead it is on the higher Ranked player to exert his authority on an opponent that has limited hard court experience.
The serve is a big weapon for Alex Michelsen and that is going to be the key to this match- he has been pretty steady serving with around an 86% hold mark no matter the Ranking of the opponent, but the key for the home player here is getting the return game operating at a standard to make this a relatively comfortable match.
Any player that battles through the Qualifying Rounds has to be respected, but the 19 year old Federico Cina has perhaps surprisingly made it through. The World Number 181 won a Challenger on the hard courts earlier this season, but he had played three hard court matches in preparation for the US Open over the last six weeks and Federico Cina won one.
That includes losing early in the Challenger event that Alex Michelsen went on to win, but it also underlines the improvement of level needed to earn the upset.
Federico Cina’s raw numbers look reasonable in the relatively small hard court sample provided in 2026, but he has not played a single player inside the top 100 of the World Rankings. During his career, Cina has played three hard court matches against those players and produced a 1-2 record with all of those matches taking place in 2025 and it would be a surprise if this Qualifier can extend his stay in New York City beyond this weekend.
He has nothing to lose and all of the pressure is on Alex Michelsen, but the latter should also have the edge in experience and can reach a hard court level that proves to be beyond the reach of Federico Cina in the First Round at this final Grand Slam of the season.
MY PICKS: Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 1.70 William Hill (2 Units)
Alex Michelsen - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 William Hill (2 Units)
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