For the second time at this tournament, a player has withdrawn from a match they were about to lose and that is now having a serious impact on the numbers.
Anna Kalinskaya retired at 7-6, 1-6, 0-5 on Monday to add to the Elena Gabriel Ruse retirement when three games away from losing her Second Round match on Saturday and it is frustrating.
Instead of two winners, which was looking incredibly likely, we have to void both and that has meant another mixed start.
Tuesday is the conclusion of the Third Round matches to be played and all will be hoping it is not a day impacted by too many rain delays- unfortunately there does look to be a real chance of some rain later in the afternoon (local time), but it should not prevent the schedule from being completed as planned.
At least the wind is not nearly as tough to deal with as it was this past weekend, which should give the players an opportunity to compete with confidence.
Andrey Rublev - 1.5 games v Nuno Borges: This will be the sixth time these two players have faced one another on the Tour and Nuno Borges is still looking to get the better of Andrey Rublev for the first time.
The most recent meeting came at the French Open and Andrey Rublev edged through in straight sets as he continued to win the big points when they were played.
It is a result that also means Andrey Rublev has won eleven of the twelve sets played between the pair, while all three hard court matches have been won in straight sets. The last of those came back in January in Hong Kong as the players prepared for the Australian Open and Andrey Rublev has been supremely dominant behind the serve.
The only nagging aspect going against this selection is that Andrey Rublev has been struggling for consistent form in recent weeks and he was beaten in the Second Round in Montreal last week. It was the fourth straight defeat in hard court matches, but Rublev will have exorcised some demons by beating Pablo Carreno Busta in the Second Round here, while also likely playing with plenty of confidence considering the head to head against Nuno Borges on the Tour.
Nuno Borges has come through a couple of matches in Cincinnati and had a decent run in Montreal last week, but he has struggled when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts. The 3-5 record is a little disappointing and the World Number 47 may come up short against Andrey Rublev once again on Tuesday.
Lorenzo Musetti - 2.5 games v Michael Zheng: The return to the Tour has been pretty productive for Lorenzo Musetti with a couple of solid, if unspectacular, runs in Washington and Toronto before winning his Second Round match in Cincinnati.
The World Number 15 is in the midst of putting another solid year together on the hard courts, although that also means there is the pressure of defending the Ranking Points won last year to maintain a spot inside the top 20 of the World Rankings.
Lorenzo Musetti is down as the favourite to beat Michael Zheng who came through the Qualifiers before winning a couple of main draw matches. The young American is operating at his best career Ranking mark, but is set to move inside the top 100 for the first time and Michael Zheng will be comfortable competing on the hard courts.
However, his experience of facing top competition is pretty limited this year and the win over Ugo Humbert is the first against someone Ranked inside the top 50.
It is a performance that will give Michael Zheng confidence, but there is still some for improvement on the serve and that is an area that Lorenzo Musetti will look to exploit.
Both of these players will believe they have the return game to hurt the other and it would not be a surprise if there are a number of breaks of serve, but Musetti has remained very strong when facing those players Ranked outside the top 20. He has already won in that spot in this tournament and Lorenzo Musetti has been able to get enough out of his serve to take a real swing on the return and he can do that in this Third Round match.
Felix Auger Aliassime - 4.5 games v Juan Manuel Cerundolo: Having to miss out on competing at the Canadian Masters would have really hurt, but Felix Auger Aliassime came through his opening match in Cincinnati in impressive style.
The win over Stefanos Tsitsipas will have been a boost for Felix Auger Aliassime who had deep runs in Cincinnati and at the US Open last year.
He is facing an opponent who has won the sole previous meeting between the pair on the Tour, but Juan Manuel Cerundolo is pretty lucky to still be in the draw at this Masters event, while beating Felix Auger Aliassime on a clay court is a different story than beating him on a hard court.
It was a win in Madrid where the courts play faster, but Felix Auger Aliassime will feel he had the chances to turn that match in his favour and his strengths should be clearer on a relatively fast hard court.
Juan Manuel Cerundolo has improved his hard court record to 5-3 this year thanks to two wins here, but his numbers have been poor and Arthur Rinderknech should have beaten him in the Second Round.
Felix Auger Aliassime is not the best return player, which makes this spread a difficult one to deal with, but he should be able to serve himself into a strong position and that pressure can be applied to help him find the breaks needed.
Madison Keys - 4.5 games v Katerina Siniakova: Two previous meetings between the pair have ended in routine wins for Madison Keys, although the last of those came at the US Open in 2024.
At 31 years old, you do have to wonder how much motivation is left for Madison Keys as she has dropped out of the top 20 in the World Rankings and picked up the Grand Slam win in Australia over eighteen months ago. That Slam victory will have made it feel like Keys has achieved all she would have wanted having looked like the Major was going to escape her, but the upcoming US Open is where she will want to peak.
It has not been the best summer of preparation but Madison Keys has tended to beat those players that she would expect, especially on the hard courts where she has a 10-3 record against those Ranked outside of the top 20.
Katerina Siniakova is a dangerous player when at her best, but it has been another inconsistent season and she did have to withdraw mid-match in Toronto last week.
A Second Round win here will have given Katerina Siniakova a boost as she performs as one of the Seeded players, but Madison Keys may have too much know-how on a hard court and can pull away for a solid win.
Iva Jovic - 3.5 games v Marie Bouzkova: Both of these players are Seeded in Cincinnati and that is expected to be the case when the US Open begins, but Iva Jovic is definitely a player on a stronger positive trajectory at this stage of the respective careers.
The 18 year old has had some very strong moments on the Tour throughout 2026 and that has helped Iva Jovic move into the World Number 16 position, which is the career high so far.
It is an improvement that will allow Iva Jovic to try and put together a strong end to the season, although her Second Round win means she has only matched the run in Cincinnati produced twelve months ago.
Back then Iva Jovic had a reprieve to enter the tournament as a Lucky Loser, and the American has put a solid year together on the Tour, albeit one that still sees her having a few off days.
Marie Bouzkova will be looking to exploit any dip from the opponent on the other side of the net, but that also means finding her own consistency in what has been a difficult season on the hard courts.
The Czech player has really struggled when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the surface and has a 2-6 record in those matches, while the numbers have taken a significant drop on the return of serve.
You always have to respect a veteran of the Tour who can call upon ample experience to change things around, but Iva Jovic has been the stronger hard court player and can push through to the Fourth Round.
Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 games v Janice Tjen: Winning the French Open means Mirra Andreeva has already begun to fulfil the obvious potential she has and this is a player who has been comfortable on the hard courts, although perhaps not putting up the results expected.
It is telling that she has yet to reach the Quarter Final at either the Australian Open or US Open with a Third Round effort the best she has had in New York City before the last Grand Slam of the season begins later this month.
Quite comfortably the best results have been at the French Open, but Andreeva has won the Indian Wells WTA 1000 event and also a big tournament held in Dubai on the hard courts.
Both of those titles were won in 2025 and Mirra Andreeva has had some disappointing early exits in the WTA 1000 events this season, including a Third Round loss in Toronto last week.
The World Number 6 did not play in Cincinnati last year, but that means the pressure is not on her shoulders and Mirra Andreeva has continued to be good enough to beat those she would expect to beat. A couple of the hard court losses have been disappointing, but a 14-3 record against those Ranked outside of the top 20 has to be respected, especially coupled with the overall numbers produced.
Janice Tjen will be looking to make it four losses in that spot for Mirra Andreeva, but the World Number 37 is still trying to find the consistency on the Tour.
She is almost certainly going to be putting up a new career-best World Ranking mark at the end of the tournament and Janice Tjen has a first serve that can put some pressure on opponents. Serving well here may give her a chance to keep things competitive, as Tjen has proven to be against many opponents on the hard courts this season, although both matches against top 10 Ranked opponents have ended in one-sided losses.
This whole match could come down to how effective Janice Tjen can serve against someone like Mirra Andreeva who has very strong returning numbers.
Janice Tjen was not able to impose the serve against Iga Swiatek and Amanda Anisimova in matches earlier this year and someone like Mirra Andreeva is capable of producing a very good looking win in this Third Round contest.
MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 1.5 Games @ 1.70 William Hill (1 Unit)
Lorenzo Musetti - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)
Felix Auger Aliassime - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Iva Jovic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Update: 8-10, - 2.99 Units (14 Units Staked, - 16.61% Yield)
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