The last four of the Women's tournament features plenty of young talent, but there won't be many who would have put a bracket together and come out with these four names.
A big opportunity is now in front of the players with a Grand Slam title to be won, but Aryna Sabalenka has to be kicking herself.
The body language had been pretty negative throughout the match, even when Sabalenka was very much in control, but losing 12 of the last 13 games was a complete capitulation.
It is not the first time the World Number 1 has managed to lose a match at the business end of a Grand Slam and not the first time Aryna Sabalenka has completely collapsed from a strong position. She was pretty downbeat in the press conference after the defeat, which is not a surprise, but it continues to show that the WTA Tour is missing that dominant force and perhaps a reason why Serena Williams is thinking about a comeback.
The former World Number 1 is back in Doubles action next week, but it would surprise no one if she did take a Wild Card into Wimbledon, which begins later in the month. One more Grand Slam is needed to match Novak Djokovic, although it would still take a monumental effort for a 44 year old who is turning 45 in September to be able to put together the kind of run needed to win a Grand Slam.
Serena Williams will be returning with that in mind, if she does indeed return to the Singles court and not just prepare for a shot at the Doubles Olympic Gold at the Los Angeles Olympics in 2028.
That is something that may give the WTA another shot in the arm, but for now the focus for the four players still playing at Roland Garros is winning a Grand Slam title and moving into the upper tier of the sport in their own right.
Marta Kostyuk - 1.5 games v Mirra Andreeva: There has long been an expectation around Marta Kostyuk and the potential she has, and at 23 years old she looks to finally be making her big breakthrough on the Tour. After getting the better of compatriot Elina Svitolina in the Quarter Final, Marta Kostyuk is moving very close to the top ten in the WTA World Rankings, while she has also reached a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final.
If she wins one more match, Marta Kostyuk will enter the top ten of the World Rankings for the first time, while a French Open title would mean she also becomes the Ukrainian Number One.
Putting together an unbeaten clay court season, which includes a big WTA 1000 title in Madrid, should mean Marta Kostyuk comes into this Semi Final filled with confidence, but it is the younger player in this match up that has the experience edge.
While there has long been an expectation about the kind of successes that Marta Kostyuk could have on a tennis court, Mirra Andreeva has been seen as a future multiple time Grand Slam Champion since the then 17 year old reached the French Open Semi Final in 2024.
The run at the French Open means Mirra Andreeva has reached the Quarter Final four times at Grand Slam level, and three of those have been in Paris- she has converted two of those into Semi Final appearances, including this season, but Mirra Andreeva will have to get the better of an opponent who has beaten her twice already this season, including once in the Madrid Final on a clay court.
There is the issue about the Russia-Ukraine war that has continued to be a feature of the press conferences, but the focus here has to be on the court.
During the run to the Semi Final, Mirra Andreeva has produced the stronger numbers and her crushing win over Sorana Cirstea in the Quarter Final will have given the teenager a huge amount of confidence. She has long been very happy on the clay courts and Andreeva has been involved in very big matches at the French Open in each of the last three editions of this Grand Slam.
Experience is a big edge when it comes to handling the sense of occasion and that is something that Mirra Andreeva will have to try and use.
However, the numbers may be stronger overall in this tournament, but it is Marta Kostyuk who has two top ten wins under her belt and she has definitely had to fight through the tougher path. Doing so, and being unbeaten on the clay in 2026, should mean Marta Kostyuk is not intimidated by the match, but it is all about handling the emotion on the day with so much on the line.
It will be important for her team to try and get Marta Kostyuk to focus on the court, although the war in her home country is going to be on the mind and facing a Russian opponent will make that impossible to ignore.
The current World Number 15 has beaten Mirra Andreeva twice this season and that will be a boost for the confidence.
Tellingly, Marta Kostyuk has been the much stronger player in both matches and has won both in straight sets, including that Madrid Final last month- the clay here plays differently to Madrid, but Kostyuk has proven to be the stronger server in those head to head matches and that could be a key to the outcome of this Semi Final.
Mirra Andreeva is a confident player when the serve is working, but Marta Kostyuk could dip those levels if she is able to get into thos return games as she has previously.
It is Marta Kostyuk who has broken serve at least four times in each match played in Paris and she has broken six times in four of the five wins- this may be the first time she drops a set to Mirra Andreeva with the nerves likely going to play a big impact, but the latter has not reached the Final of a Grand Slam herself and there are still those moments when Andreeva reminds everyone that she is still a very young player and that may be the case on Thursday.
Diana Shnaider - 2.5 games v Maja Chwalinska: The second Grand Slam of the season has been one that has featured upset after upset and you will struggle to find too many people who selected the final four in the Women's event before the French Open began.
At least some sort of case could have been made for Mirra Andreeva and Marta Kostyuk, who make up the other Semi Final, but how many would have predicted Diana Shnaider and Maja Chwalinska to have made their way through the top half?
Both won Quarter Final matches on Wednesday in awfully tough conditions at the tournament- instead of the brutal heat of the first week, both players had to come through windy conditions that made it very difficult to control the ball, but both Shnaider and Chwalinska deserve a lot of credit for beating higher Ranked players.
There is a real storyline around both players too- Maja Chwalinska has won eight matches to reach the French Open Semi Final having begun her tournament in the Qualifying Rounds. She began her run outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings, but Chwalinska is set to earn a top 30 Ranking going forward and that means the next twelve months will be an opportunity to play in the biggest tournaments on the Tour.
For Diana Shnaider, the clay court season had been a difficult one as she struggled to mix it with the best players on the Tour, but back to back wins over Grand Slam Champions will have given her a whole heap of confidence. Those two wins over Madison Keys and Aryna Sabalenka have come in three sets and Diana Shnaider has come through the final set decider in each match without dropping a game, and that will have given the World Number 23 plenty of belief in her own tennis.
The comeback against Aryna Sabalenka from 6-3, 4-1, 30/0 behind is a huge moment for Diana Shnaider and now it is all about recovery, more mentally than physically.
Nerves are going to be a huge feature of this match with a Grand Slam Final place on the line and that does make it that much tougher to predict.
On paper you have to give the edge to Diana Shnaider who has had a solid record on the clay over the last couple of years and while competing at a high level.
Nothing is wrong with the Maja Chwalinska numbers, but the 24 year old has played in Challenger level events, which is backed up by her World Ranking, while she has not beaten a top 20 Ranked player yet in the tournament. At the end of this tournament, Diana Shnaider will be a top 20 Ranked player again and the younger of the two left-handed players has also beaten Maja Chwalinska on the clay before, albeit back in 2022 when Shnaider was making her way up the levels.
An early injury has perhaps held Maja Chwalinska back, but this run has still come out of left field considering what has been produced in the build up to the French Open- the numbers have bene strong enough, but those had come about at a much lower level than the main Tour events, and even then the Pole had a 10-5 record.
It is a run that will have some thinking back to 2021 when Emma Raducanu came through Qualifiers to then go on and win the US Open- more recently, Dayana Yastremska came through Qualifying and eventually reached the Australian Open Semi Final in 2024, but the latter of those players had more Grand Slam experience than Maja Chwalinska, who is taking part in just her third main draw appearance at a Major.
People are comparing it more to the Raducanu run, and this is likely going to be a match that features a lot of Breaks of serve.
Wind is going to be a real problem again on Thursday, especially with the roof likely to be open if the thunderstorms of early in the day are not expected to return. That does make it tougher with the nerves and emotions already pretty high for both players and it could come down to who can handle the conditions best when the pressure builds up.
The edge has to be with Diana Shnaider considering her experience of playing in bigger events, while she has looked the slightly more consistent return player and that may see her earn one or two more Breaks than Maja Chwalinska in this surprising Semi Final at the French Open.
MY PICKS: Marta Kostyuk - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Diana Shnaider - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
French Open Update: 26-20, + 2.46 Units (88 Units Staked, + 2.80% Yield)
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