Day 10 proved to be a bounce back day for the Tennis Picks, but the French Open continues to throw up plenty of upsets and it is going to take some serious navigation to get out of Paris with a winning record.
Four more Quarter Final matches are set for Wednesday as the tournament begins to reach its climax.
Two Semi Final matches, one from both Men's and Women's events, have already been set as we prepare for what could be another day of tennis to be played under the roof.
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Diana Shnaider: Consistent form away from the Grand Slam events helped Diana Shnaider into a career best World Ranking of Number 11 twelve months ago, but she has hit a bit of wall in the last year. That is not a surprise for a young player getting used to the trials and tribulations of a long Tour, but this is a surface on which Diana Shnaider feels comfortable.
Credit has to be given to the 22 year old for the numbers that have been steady across all surfaces, but that has not prevented Diana Shnaider for slipping down the World Rankings and she entered the French Open as the Number 25 Seed.
No matter what happens from here, Diana Shnaider has reversed the slip by reaching the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam event for the first time and she has had to come through some difficult situations. Most notably that was in the Third Round win over Oleksandra Oliynykova who had been highly critical of Shnaider in the pre-match press conferences and some of the actions that have been taken by the young player away from the Tour in relation to the continuing Russia-Ukraine war.
Diana Shnaider dealt with a difficult match and she has a win over a former Grand Slam Champion in Madison Keys in the Fourth Round, but there is going to be little doubt that this is another considerable step up in level of challenge facing her.
There has been a trend in each of the first four wins- Diana Shnaider has broken six times in each of those matches, but also dropped serve three times in each win, while there is going to be room for improvement on the serve if the lower Ranked player is going to beat the top Seed in the draw.
After a less than impressive build up towards the French Open, Aryna Sabalenka battled through the first couple of Rounds here in Paris.
The concern for the rest of the draw is that Aryna Sabalenka looks to be peaking at the right time and the last couple of performances have been better than the one before, while the win over Naomi Osaka in the Fourth Round really did make a statement. Aryna Sabalenka will know that there are stronger clay courters that she will have to beat to win this title for the first time, but being on the easier half of the bracket will help and it will be a real surprise if the World Number 1 is not playing in the Final again.
She has been one of the top clay courters on the Tour in recent years and Aryna Sabalenka will feel her serve gives her a big edge in this Quarter Final.
The return has been solid, but it is the strength of the serve that creates scoreboard pressure and that may be the case against Diana Shnaider, who has struggled against the better players on the Tour.
All four of Shnaider's clay court defeats this season have been against top 20 Ranked opponents and she had been 0-4 in those matches before the win over Madison Keys in the Fourth Round.
In those previous four defeats, Diana Shnaider has found herself under siege on the serve, but also struggling to make a serious impact on the return and that sounds like it could be the story of this last eight clash.
Facing a lefty may make things awkward for Aryna Sabalenka who has never played Diana Shnaider on the Tour before, but the World Number 1 did knock off a couple of southpaws at Roland Garros in 2025 without too much pushback.
This one should be tougher with the sense of expectation around Aryna Sabalenka, but she can eventually get on top of Diana Shnaider and that will likely be reflected on the final scoreboard as another Grand Slam Semi Final is reached by the top player on the Tour.
Flavio Cobolli v Felix Auger Aliassime: The run to the Quarter Final here in Paris means Felix Auger Aliassime has reached the last eight or better at every Grand Slam event on the Tour, while he is going to end this tournament at a new career high World Ranking.
The early elimination suffered by Jannik Sinner has opened up this top half of the draw and Felix Auger Aliassime is the highest Ranked player in the section, which will have built up some pressure on the 25 year old. He has been handling it as well as he can and Felix Auger Aliassime will be grateful for a straightforward Fourth Round win, which will mean he has been given time for recovery and preparation ahead of this Quarter Final.
Like many in the Men's tournament, there have been some taxing matches during the run to the last eight, but that Fourth Round win in a little over two hours came at an ideal time for Felix Auger Aliassime.
Two Fourth Round defeats and four First Round defeats had been the previous record at the Frenhc Open, but Felix Auger Aliassime has used the serve to build up pressure on opponents. The draw has also opened up for him, which means only one Seeded player has been beaten to reach the Quarter Final, while the form in the build up tournaments had been nothing to write home about.
Felix Auger Aliassime is very reliant on strong serving to build up pressure and he has to be credited for what looks to be an improving shot as the wins have racked up here in Paris. Conditions were much different in the first week, but Auger Aliassime will take real encouragement from his performance in the Fourth Round, while stronger serving has opened up opportunities on the return.
Experience is most certainly on the side of Felix Auger Aliassime who is playing in his fifth Grand Slam Quarter Final and who reached the US Open Semi Final last September.
However, Flavio Cobolli has continued to grow on the Tour and he is very close to cracking the top 10 of the World Rankings for the first time, while he is the player in the top half of the bracket who has made the most comfortable of progress to this stage of the French Open.
The World Number 14 had won the opening three matches in straight sets and should have done the same in the Fourth Round before losing concentration.
Still, Flavio Cobolli has spent around four hours fewer hours on the court compared with his opponent on the way to the Quarter Final and that accumulated fatigue, or lack of, can make a difference when we get to this Round of a Grand Slam.
Flavio Cobolli will be like many from Italy in being very comfortable on the clay courts and his overall tennis has looked to be in very good shape at the French Open. He has benefited from a kind draw and one that has looked kinder than the one that Felix Auger Aliassime has navigated, but credit has to be given to Cobolli for getting through the matches as would be expected.
Like his opponent, Flavio Cobolli will sense there is a big opportunity for him in the top half of the Men;'s draw and the 'x factor' here is how the Italian can handle the emotions and the sense of occasion.
He can take a huge amount of confidence from the fact that Flavio Cobolli has two wins over Felix Auger Aliassime on the Tour and both on the hard courts that should favour the latter. One of those was in Canada in 2024 and both of those wins have been at a time when Felix Auger Aliassime was the higher Ranked player, as he will be on Wednesday.
The overall clay court numbers, the potential of being the fresher player and the head to head are the slight edges in favour of Flavio Cobolli and he can win this match if he is not overawed in just his second Grand Slam Quarter Final.
Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 sets v Matteo Arnaldi: If someone had told you that three Men's Italian tennis players would be competing in the French Open Quarter Final and none would be Jannik Sinner, you'd never have believed them.
But that is the case on Day 11 of the French Open and the last match scheduled on the court features two players named Matteo.
Between 2021 and 2022, Matteo Berrettini found himself constantly competing at the business end of Grand Slam events and he was as high as World Number 6 in January 2022. During that time he reached the Final at Wimbledon, the Semi Final at the Australian Open and back to back runs to the Quarter Final at the US Open.
In 2021 Matteo Berrettini was also able to reach the Quarter Final at the French Open, but injuries piled up and he had not even competed at three of the previous four Grand Slam events prior to the 2026 French Open. Matteo Berrettini had not played here since the Quarter Final run in 2021, but the World Number 105 has enjoyed a special week and his experience will give Berrettini a real shot at reaching another Grand Slam Final.
A Third Round win was earned in over five hours on the court, but Matteo Berrettini made relatively routine work of his Fourth Round opponent and that will be key in helping him recover physically.
Before the tournament began, Matteo Arnaldi was one place higher than Berrettini in the World Rankings at Number 104 and so his run to the Quarter Final has been just as surprising as his compatriot's.
Out of the two players, Matteo Arnaldi has played the higher level of opponent, but that has also meant leaving a lot more out of the court. He recovered from 2-1 behind in sets and 4-1 down in the fourth set to beat Frances Tiafoe in the Fourth Round, but that win may have come at a cost with Matteo Arnaldi needing over five hours on the court for a second match in a row.
At times Matteo Arnaldi looked to be running on fumes, but he has shown grit and determination which has to be respected.
He is going to need to show more of that in this Quarter Final, although the expectation is that the rallies are not going to be nearly as gruelling as they were in the win over Frances Tiafoe. This time the big serving of Matteo Berrettini should shorten up the points, which may not be a bad thing for Matteo Arnaldi who is going to have pick and choose the moments when to attack.
The serve has been the big weapon for Matteo Berrettini in this run to the Quarter Final and he may have the edge in this one if there is any lingering fatigue in the Matteo Arnaldi arm and body.
Matteo Berrettini is not the most convincing of return players on the Tour, but he should be the fresher player in this Quarter Final and Matteo Arnaldi's serve showed some vulnerabilities in the Fourth Round.
While Matteo Arnaldi has shown considerable fight to get back into matches in this French Open run, you do have a feeling that this match could get very tough for the younger of the two Italian players if Matteo Berrettini can move in front.
The serving of Berrettini will likely keep Matteo Arnaldi under some real pressure and that could finally see the 25 year old crack.
MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Flavio Cobolli @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
French Open Update: 25-19, + 2.64 Units (84 Units Staked, + 3.14% Yield)
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