There are plenty of big events to be completed before we get to the French Open at the end of the month and there are three 500 level events this week in Barcelona, Munich and Stuttgart with some big names on both the ATP and WTA Tour in action.
It should be remembered that there are still plenty of clay court specialists out there and those have to be respected, while some top names are much more comfortable on the faster surfaces rather than the red dirt.
We have already seen another meltdown from Daniil Medvedev last week in Monte Carlo, while some of the top American names are skipping some of this part of the season knowing they are much more dangerous when it comes to the hard or grass courts. Others that are playing become vulnerable to the upsets that the layers may not always price up as they should and so there is a lot of consideration given to a number of factors that can change the selection.
Taking note of the kind of clay court tournaments coming up is also important- the Madrid Masters plays very different to the other clay events and the French Open and tends to throw up many more upsets than most events at this time of the season. Conditions tend to see the ball fly that much quicker through the air and the surface so that may be another event which needs to be watched, rather than having multiple selections made, but that is something to consider when the tournament comes around next week.
A decent start to the season took a knock in March with the Indian Wells and Miami Masters both getting the better of the selections.
Overall we have to be happy with where the numbers currently stand, but building momentum towards the French Open is important and that is the focus over the next six weeks until the second Grand Slam of the season gets underway.
Early losses in Rio de Janeiro and Santiago will have been a disappointment during the South American Golden Swing, but Camilo Ugo Carabeli reached the Semi Final in Marrakech to boost confidence.
Rafael Jodar - 4.5 games v Camilo Ugo Carabelli: After the retirement of Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz has become the poster boy for Spanish Tennis, but there is another Rafael making his way up the World Rankings.
19 year old Rafael Jodar may not have made the early waves of Alcaraz, but he is operating at a career best World Number 55 after winning the title in Marrakech earlier this month. A Wild Card has been handed to him to take his place in this ATP 500 event in Barcelona and the same can be expected at the ATP 1000 event in Madrid and Rafael Jodar could make significant leaps in the World Rankings right through the French Open.
He has played well on the hard courts as well as the more natural clay and that makes this teenager someone to keep an eye on.
Veteran Jaume Munar was dismissed in the First Round very comfortably and Rafael Jodar is a pretty significant favourite in this match up against Camilo Ugo Carabelli.
The 26 year old Argentinian is the World Number 43 and like many of his compatriots, Camilo Ugo Carabelli is very comfortable on the red dirt. Earlier this season he won a Challenger event in Argentina and later reached the Quarter Final at the ATP 250 tournament held in Buenos Aires.
Early losses in Rio de Janeiro and Santiago will have been a disappointment during the South American Golden Swing, but Camilo Ugo Carabeli reached the Semi Final in Marrakech to boost confidence.
That run was ended by Rafael Jodar as they prepare to meet for a second time on the clay this month, and the real test for Camilo Ugo Carabelli is whether he can find a way to get his teeth into the Jodar serve. It was a problem in Marrakech with Ugo Carabelli creating just 2 Break Points in a straight sets defeat as he struggled to make an impact on either the first or second serve return.
While only a small sample, Rafael Jodar's serving in his six clay courts matches in 2026 has been really impressive and he has backed that up by keeping the pressure on opponents with his return.
If Camilo Ugo Carabelli can get his first serve rhythm going, he can be dangerous and put some pressure on the younger player. However, the second serve can be a real weakness and Ugo Carabelli was broken four times when these players met in Morocco.
Winning just three games again is unlikely, but Camilo Ugo Carabelli may struggle to still cover this spread set for the Second Round match in Barcelona.
MY PICKS: Rafael Jodar - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Season 2026: 93-80, + 9.20 Units (238 Units Staked, + 3.87% Yield)
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