Injuries are a crucial factor at this time of the season and we have seen a number of those really changing the narrative not only around the First Round Series to be played, but potentially much further into the Playoffs.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are reeling with both Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo expected to miss significant time and they will be looking to find a way past the Denver Nuggets. That likely means a Second Round Series against the San Antonio Spurs, who have just had Victor Wembanyama return from a concussion,
It might be the kind of situation that would suit the Spurs- if the Timberwolves can upset the Nuggets and move through, it is a more comfortable Series anyway, but a shorthanded Minnesota would be something San Antonio are really comfortable in facing before a potential Western Conference Finals against Oklahoma City Thunder,
And if a healthier Los Angeles Lakers team moves into the Second Round, the Western Conference Bracket may actually shift in favour of the San Antonio Spurs.
Over in the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics are doing what they do best and look to be cruising through to the Second Round.
They have a big chance to finish the First Round Series in Game 5, while the likes of the Detroit Pistons, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers are all due to play a Game 6 at the minimum.
And that is if the Pistons are going to find a way to turn around a 1-2 deficit and make it through to the next Round.
Selections from the remainder of the First Round Series will be placed here as the Series come to a close, but those will begin on Tuesday after the Denver Nuggets were set as a big favourite to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves that have been ravaged by injury.
However, my concern is that the role players have a couple of big efforts in them to find a way to help the Timberwolves move through this Series.
If they are blown out, Minnesota might be set at a tempting line to cover as what is expected to be a home underdog in Game 6, but that is going to be answered following the Monday Game 4.
Tuesday 28th April
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: The return of Joel Embiid will have given the Philadelphia 76ers a lift and there was nothing wrong with his performance in Game 4.
Unfortunately for Embiid and his team, the Boston Celtics have not changed the approach taken and that means bludgeoning the 76ers from the three point distance.
Over the last few seasons, it has become clear that the Celtics will be happy to live and die by the three pointer with the full belief in the shooters and making those plays often enough to win games and, ultimately, Series. That looks unlikely to change and this Game 5 really comes down to whether you believe the 76ers can either restrict the Boston Celtics from finding their rhythm or, more likely, whether Philadelphia can find enough shots to keep up.
Nothing we have seen from this Series suggests anything other than another comfortable win for the Boston Celtics and they can come through Game 5 with another big win and a cover of the spread set.
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs Game 5 Pick: Victor Wembanyama was back, but the San Antonio Spurs perhaps lost some focus in the first half of Game 4 as they looked to take control of this First Round Series.
There must have been words exchanged at half time because the Spurs came out with a lot more intensity in the second half and they crushed the Portland Trail Blazers at both ends of the court.
Home teams have tended to dominate Game 5s when it comes to the wins, but the cover rate is below 50%.
However, the Spurs are the second team liked in that spot and that is because they look like they are now settled into the post-season and the Portland Trail Blazers may struggle to be competitive enough at both ends of the court.
Respect has to be given to the Trail Blazers for the intensity, grit and determination taken into this season, the Play In Tournament and into this Series, but they are short of the required quality to match this deep Spurs team. Experience will give Portland plenty to take into the next season, but this one could come to a close as soon as Tuesday and the San Antonio Spurs may just end up pulling away as they have in the last couple of road wins to take control of this Series and for a place in the Western Conference Second Round.
MY PICKS: 28/04 Boston Celtics - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
28/04 San Antonio Spurs - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
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