NFL Week 5 Picks 2024 (Thursday 3rd October-Monday 7th October)

Last week was a true bounce back one for the NFL Picks after the first losing week of the season.

It has been a tough week to get my thoughts down before the Thursday Night Football game between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

We should be in a more usual mode for next week and hopefully that will be after another solid week of selections.

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets Pick: The International Series has already grown in 2024 with a game played in Brazil, but the NFL are set to expand that over the coming years. More announcements could be made relatively soon as the first of three London games is played in Week 5 of the season.

All of the talk when this game was announced was about seeing Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets (2-2), but the excitement around the Minnesota Vikings (4-0) heading to the Great Britain Capital was tempered as soon as Kirk Cousins was traded away.

Things feel much different in Week 5 with the Vikings unbeaten and leading the tough looking NFC North, while the Jets have work to do.

Aaron Rodgers was not happy with himself after the loss to the Denver Broncos as a big favourite last Sunday, but the comments made by Head Coach Robert Saleh have been making the headlines. He did not seem that happy with the way the Offensive unit was run, and there have been some reports of tension between Head Coach and Quarter Back before that defeat.

It was a miserable day all around for the Jets as they scored just 9 points at home, but reinforcements will arrive if Rodgers has his way. The team are leading the way when it comes to trading for Davante Adams, but for now the Jets will have flown over to London looking for a much better all around performance.

That may be a tough ask for Aaron Rodgers and his team-mates considering the level being produced by the Vikings on the Defensive side of the ball. The Quarter Back has not really found a great rhythm or chemistry with his Receivers right now and so it may not be easy for the Jets to attack the Minnesota Secondary that has given up plenty of yards as teams have tried to find a way back into games.

While there have been plenty of yards allowed, Minnesota's team have forced Interceptions too and turnovers will be key to the outcome of this game. Aaron Rodgers has historically not given away too much when facing the Vikings in his time with the Green Bay Packers, but he was under immense duress every time he stepped back to throw the ball against Denver and pressure is going to be all around him in this one in obvious passing situations.

Leaning on the running game will still likely be the plan for the Jets, but this has been the real strength of the Minnesota Defensive unit so it may be tough for Breece Hall to have a big impact on the ground. Instead the Jets may look to scheme the Running Back into positions where he can take quick throws from Aaron Rodgers and try and turn them into big gains with Rodgers not expected to be playing behind an Offensive Line that could give him time to allow routes to develop.

You have to expect more than Week 4 from the Jets, but the conditions in London look mixed and it may be tough for New York to really improve. Aaron Rodgers is likely going to make some plays, but it's never easy behind an Offensive Line resembling a turnstile and so it could be another tough day for a 40 year old who took plenty of big hits last week.

Sacks might play a big part in this game on the other side of the ball too considering the pressure the Jets can generate and the recent problems the Vikings have had in pass protection. However, Sam Darnold will be heading into this 'revenge' game knowing that his running attack is likely going to put the Vikings in a much stronger position than what is expected from the New York Jets.

The Minnesota Offensive Line will have been encouraged by what Denver were able to do against the Jets last week and they have a more competent Quarter Back who will be given more respect than Bo Nix was afforded. Despite the lack of passing yards from Nix, Denver won the game behind a strong run and Aaron Jones could pick up from where the Broncos left off.

Keeping Sam Darnold in front of the chains has been key to the early successes the Quarter Back has had and he has been able to spread the ball around to some talented playmakers. There are some solid Defensive Backs that will need to be pointed out when the Vikings are setting to throw, but Darnold has to believe his Receivers will win out and his decision making has been absolutely right so far.

It should allow Minnesota to keep the chains ticking over and the Vikings may just maintain their perfect covering record in London.

Full focus can be on this game with a Bye Week coming up, while Aaron Rodgers has yet to remind the fans to 'relax'. Things might just have to get a little worse for the Jets before there are signs of getting better and Minnesota might get the better of the former Green Bay Packer, much to the delight of their fans from both sides of the pond.

The expectation is that this will be a competitive game thanks to the abilities of both Defensive units, but Minnesota's rushing attack could prove to be the difference maker on the day.

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears Pick: There are always going to be comparisons between the top Quarter Backs taken in the NFL Draft and it is no surprise some talking heads are already suggesting the Chicago Bears (2-2) might regret picking Caleb Williams over Jayden Daniels. You won't hear that from the organisation though considering the improvements they feel they are seeing from their rookie behind Center and the win over the Los Angeles Rams was perhaps Williams' best performance of this young season.

The Bears were favourites to beat the Los Angeles Rams at Soldier Field in Week 4 and they are favourites again before heading to London for a meeting with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Next up is the Carolina Panthers (1-3), a team that have looked rejuvenated with a veteran at Quarter Back- much like the Bears, they spent a lot of time wondering whether picking Bryce Young over CJ Stroud was a mistake and ultimately it looks like a miss from the Panthers with Young benched and Stroud operating like one of the top players in the position.

Two more losses with Bryce Young behind Center meant a change was necessary and this is now Andy Dalton's team.

Offensively the Panthers have certainly looked more capable with Dalton at Quarter Back and that will give them an opportunity to spring the upset. With someone capable of throwing the ball with better success than Bryce Young managed, the Offensive Line have been able to offer Andy Dalton enough protection and they have also opened up some big running lanes.

Chuba Hubbard has taken advantage and he should have some success on the ground against this solid Bears Defensive Line. This is key for the Panthers as they look to manage the game and remain in front of the chains at all times, and it will also slow down any Chicago pass rush which did rattle Matthew Stafford.

The Rams Quarter Back still made some big time throws against this Bears Secondary and Andy Dalton should have a decent game when stepping back to throw. Avoiding Interceptions will be key for Dalton and the Panthers, but if he can play a clean game, the Panthers should be able to move the ball and the 60 points scored in the last two games is a number they can build upon.

Chicago snapped a two game losing run with their victory over the Rams in Week 4 and they saw some life from a struggling running game, and that was a huge benefit for their young Quarter Back. It took a bit of time for D'Andre Swift to get going in that victory, but the Running Back ended up having his most productive game of the season.

There will be a chance to back that performance up with another solid outing against this Panthers Defensive Line and that will be encouraging for Caleb Williams. The Offensive Line have not played as well as they would have liked this season, but they could be aided by some downhill running and staying in front of the chains will mean they do not have to protect Williams for too long.

Even if Caleb Williams needs time, the Panthers pass rush may not be able to take full advantage of the Chicago Offensive Line problems. Instead the Panthers will look to the Secondary to stay with some of the solid Receivers that Chicago have and will also be looking to tempt Williams into an errant throw or two.

You have to credit the Bears for covering as the favourite on two out of two occasions this season, but the distraction of playing in London next week is a factor. The improvements made by the Panthers in the last couple of games, especially Offensively, could see them keep this close and the play is taking the points with the road team.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: In recent years, the Baltimore Ravens (2-2) and Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) have combined to dominate the AFC North and games between these Divisional rivals have been hugely important to the final standings.

This season the Pittsburgh Steelers may have something to say about top spot in the Division, but there is still a feeling that the Ravens and Bengals are amongst the top teams in the entire League.

It has been tough for the Bengals early in the season and it was hugely important for them to beat the Carolina Panthers and earn their first win of the season. Questions have begun to be asked about Joe Burrow and Head Coach Zac Taylor, but they can only be answered by how they play on the field and Cincinnati have to be massively motivated by being set as the home underdog.

There will be a feeling that the Bengals can build momentum if they are able to upset the odds and win this game with the likes of the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns to come. However, winning this game is going to be anything but easy and especially not against a Baltimore team that have won back to back games and just blown out the Buffalo Bills in a prime time spot.

Much will depend on the Cincinnati Offensive Line on this side of the ball as they look to try and establish the run and avoid the team becoming predictable or one-dimensional. Running the ball against the Baltimore Ravens has been a huge challenge for all of their opponents this season though and it feels like a tough spot for the Bengals to have much more success.

Ultimately the game will lean on Joe Burrow at Quarter Back and some talented Wide Receivers.

This Ravens Secondary may not be as strong as previous versions, but the pass rush is very effective and that can cover up some of the holes that Quarter Backs would love to exploit. If the Bengals are in third and long spots, that pressure could still make an impact on the game and help to stall drives, although you also have to expect some solid numbers from Burrow and the passing game.

Pass rush can slow down drives, but the Ravens will also feel they can control the clock and keep the Cincinnati Offensive unit sitting on the sidelines for an extended period.

Some thought Derrick Henry was perhaps not the player he once was with the Tennessee Titans, but he has been producing big time Football for the Baltimore Ravens and could pick up from where he left off in Week 4. There is no doubting the power and quality of Henry, but playing alongside Lamar Jackson feels unfair to Defensive Lines and the Cincinnati Bengals will struggle to contain the tandem on the ground.

Everything good that Baltimore will do Offensively begins with the powerful running game and the Ravens should have plenty of success. It also means Lamar Jackson has time when he has been asked to throw the ball and being in front of the chains means the Quarter Back has been able to avoid costly mistakes, which is also important in a tight game like this one.

This should be a competitive and fun game for fans to watch, especially for the neutrals, and something of a back and forth contest. The ability of the Ravens to run the ball should be a key difference and they have won three of the last four regular season games between these Divisional rivals, although Cincinnati do hold a PlayOff win over Baltimore in that time too.

The Ravens had lost three in a row in Cincinnati before getting the better of them last season and Baltimore can ride the momentum gained over the last two weeks to an important win and the chance to move above 0.500 for the first time this season.

Cleveland Browns @ Washington Commanders Pick: If you had said at the start of the season that one of these teams would have a 3-1 record and the other 1-3, it is almost certain you would have predicted the wrong team to be holding that mark ahead of this Week 5 non-Conference game.

The Cleveland Browns (1-3) have been a huge disappointment so far in 2024 and they are playing in a very tough Division. On the other side, the Washington Commanders (3-1) have bounced back from a Week 1 defeat and won three in a row to move to the top of the NFC East and Jayden Daniels has performed at a high level to have people wondering if he should not have been the Number 1 Overall Draft Pick rather than Caleb Williams.

One Quarter Back is playing on his rookie deal, but that is far from the case for Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns. A lot of money and Draft Picks were invested into Watson when trading for him to take over as Quarter Back in Cleveland, but he has not been able to return to the form he had showed in his time with the Houston Texans.

It really does not make things easy when the Offensive Line is banged up and with Nick Chubb yet to return from a devastating injury. Even then, more has been expected from Watson at Quarter Back and there is no doubt that more will be needed if big decisions are to be avoided in the off-season.

The Offensive unit have struggled, but this game could be a chance for Cleveland to have a bit more success running the ball, which is all so important for them. Injuries have made it difficult for consistency, but the Commanders Defensive Line have not been clamping down on the run and so there is an opportunity for Cleveland to allow Watson to play in third and manageable situations.

Deshaun Watson has not really found any consistency in his passing, but being in front of the chains will help, even if that help is having a bit more time. He has been under a lot of pressure early in the season and the Commanders will bring the heat up front to rush the Cleveland Quarter Back.

This should give Washington the chance to at least slow the Cleveland Offensive unit and give the ball to Jayden Daniels in his bid to continue to impress.

Brian Robinson Jr is a potential big miss for the Washington Commanders having begun the season so well at Running Back, but Austin Ekeler is a capable replacement. With a dual-threat Quarter Back, the Commanders Offensive Line should be able to establish the run against this struggling Browns rushing Defense and that will help the rookie Jayden Daniels no end.

Credit has to be given to the Browns Defensive unit for keeping the team competitive since the Week 1 blowout to the Dallas Cowboys, but it will be tough to stop the Commanders if they continue to run the ball as effectively as they have been. For starters it should ease some of the pass rush and Jayden Daniels has shown an efficiency when throwing the ball, and that has impressed considering he has played just four NFL games.

Playing at that level will make it tough for the Browns and Washington look like they can keep the good times rolling through another week. The situation is different for both teams with the Cleveland Browns having been favoured while losing and the Washington Commanders coming through as the underdog in each of their last two victories.

Expectations can do funny things to players and teams, but the ability to run the ball like the Commanders have done will give them a slight edge and Jayden Daniels may just outplay Deshaun Watson.

MY PICKS: Minnesota Vikings - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Carolina Panthers + 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 2 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Washington Commanders - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Steelers - 2.5 Points @ 1.87 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

College Football Week 6 Picks 2024 (Saturday 5th October)

There are always some very difficult weeks in College Football and the Week 5 results stung.

Georgia almost came back to earn a victory at Alabama having trailed 28-0 early, but they were undone by a massive play just seconds after taking the lead in Tuscaloosa and the Bulldogs have had to suffer a setback.

They can still be very much involved in the College Football PlayOff chase the rest of the season and the SEC is on course to send a number of teams into the new twelve team format. The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are two, but the likes of the Missouri Tigers, Texas Longhorns and Tennessee Volunteers are all top ten teams in the latest Rankings.

Issues will be cleared up as these teams begin to play one another, and we are soon going to see another big SEC game when the Volunteers host Alabama in a couple of weeks time. Avoiding slips is the main focus for the majority of the top teams this week, while other Conferences are also trying to push their top teams to the forefront of the College Football PlayOff discussions that are already taking place.

Iowa Hawkeyes @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: There are two standout teams in the Big Ten early in the 2024 season and they are set to play one another in Week 7, which could decide which one, if any, is able to make it through to the Championship Game later in the year.

Of course that is no disrespect to others in the tough Conference, but the Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) have to make sure the upcoming game against the Oregon Ducks is not a distraction. Losing a game like this one would hurt the Buckeyes when you think there are teams like the Indiana Hoosiers and Penn State Nittany Lions ready to push into any open Championship Game slot, while the Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1) have to be afforded a lot of respect.

The line set for the game might suggest otherwise, but this is going to be a test for Ohio State, although also an opportunity to show what they are about.

Much is going to depend on the line of scrimmage when the Buckeyes have the ball- the Offensive Line have been opening some big running lanes, but this is the strength of the entire Iowa Defensive unit and the Line up front will feel they can restrict some of the damage done. Of course it should be noted that the Hawkeyes have not really played Offensive teams of the talent level that the Buckeyes possess, but keeping Ohio State in third and long spots will give the road team a chance.

The problem for Iowa is that their Secondary have allowed a few more yards than hoped and the Hawkeyes are unlikely to rush Will Howard at Quarter Back. With any time, Howard should be able to find some of his talented playmakers down the field and the Buckeyes should be able to wear down this opponent.

It will put some pressure on the Hawkeyes, who have not been the most exciting of Offensive units and now have to face what could be the best Defense they have seen all season.

Much like the Buckeyes, the Iowa Hawkeyes will lean on their Offensive Line and hope to find a way to establish the run against what has been a very effective Ohio State Defensive Line. So many games will come down to the Line of Scrimmage and Iowa would love to control the clock and keep the Buckeyes powerful unit cooling off on the sidelines with extended drives.

Despite the strong play in the Secondary, Ohio State are going to have plenty of respect for Cade McNamara, a former Michigan Quarter Back now leading the Hawkeyes. Back in 2021, McNamara led the Wolverines to a win over Ohio State on their way to a Big Ten Conference Championship, although they were eventually beaten in the final four of the College Football PlayOff.

He did not have massively impressive numbers in the win over Ohio State, but McNamara is a bit more experienced now and he has avoided turnovers. The problem for the Hawkeyes will be if they need Cade McNamara to push the boat out and attack this Ohio State Secondary if they are playing catch up and that is where a potentially damaging turnover or two could swing this game in favour of the home team and with every chance of covering this big line.

Two years ago, Ohio State blew out the Hawkeyes at home, but they were an almost 30 point favourite that day.

This one should be more competitive than the 44 point win in October 2022, but the Buckeyes might be the stronger team at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that should lead to a win and cover.

Clemson Tigers @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: It is the collapse of the Florida State Seminoles (1-4) that has opened the door for a new ACC Champion in 2024. The 1-3 Conference record will really sting, while the Seminoles were crushed by new Conference members SMU Mustangs in Week 5 as the season goes from bad to worse.

There will be no lack of motivation for the Florida State fans in this home game against the Clemson Tigers (3-1) who might be the best team in the Conference. They have bounced back very well from the crushing defeat to the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1, but the Tigers will be very aware of the threat that the Seminoles may continue to pose even if this season has been pretty miserable so far.

It was supposed to be the day when the Tigers would be facing an old colleague, but DJ Uiagalelei looks to have suffered an injury that will rule him out and that makes things that much more difficult for the Seminoles.

Instead of a Quarter Back with a lot of experience, Florida State will be preparing Brock Glenn who has not really shown a lot in his limited playing time. He will have earned plenty of reps to get ready, but Glenn will be hoping the Seminoles Offensive Line can pick up the majority of the slack and make his life easier on the day.

This has been the one area where Clemson have continued to struggle- they have not been able to contain the run, but it is perhaps asking even too much for this Florida State Offensive Line. There have been plenty of disappointments when it comes to talking about this Seminoles team, but the struggles on the ground have increased the pressure on the Quarter Back.

You have to feel that the Tigers will be looking to make especially Brock Glenn beat them through the air.

This may lead to a couple more players edging towards the Line of Scrimmage to just help the Tigers make some plays up front and then trust the Secondary to be able to distract and confuse an inexperienced Quarter Back. With the Seminoles Offensive Line also struggling when it comes to pass protection, the Tigers pass rush may just rattle Brock Glenn into a mistake or two and that could give the road team a big opportunity to put a statement win on the board.

Florida State have struggled Offensively, but they have also failed to make enough plays on the other side of the ball and that is where Clemson can pull away for a big win and cover of this line.

There has been some improvement in the performance up front, although the Clemson Offensive Line will still feel very confident in their ability to push the Seminoles around and create some solid running lanes. Any time they are in front of the chains, Cade Klubnik should be able to have his way with a Seminoles Secondary that have allowed over 275 passing yards per game in their last three.

You would have to believe that Klubnik can have a big game in this one and it should put Clemson in a strong position.

Games between these rivals have tended to be close and competitive, which is not a surprise, but at the moment there feels like a big gap between them. With the starting Quarter Back missing for Florida State, that gap could be all the wider and the Tigers can wear down a rival that is having a tough year and could be ripe for more hardship in Week 6.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: Winning road games in College Football is never easy, but winning those games in the SEC is that much more challenging.

This is where you can separate the contenders from the pretenders, although the Tennessee Volunteers (4-0) may already have shown why they have to be respected. Even earning a spot in the Championship Game is going to be considered a successful season with the amount of quality teams that are playing in this Conference, but that will be the target for the Volunteers.

The 10 point win at the Oklahoma Sooners has really shown that there is a huge amount of potential for what this Volunteers team can achieve and they are playing after a Bye Week. A big game is coming up in two weeks time when the Volunteers will be hosting the Alabama Crimson Tide, but overlooking the Arkansas Razorbacks (3-2) would be a big mistake.

Losing against the Texas A&M Aggies has dropped the Razorbacks to 1-1 within the Conference and this has all of the hallmarks of being a tough day in the office Offensively.

Everyone knows that the Razorbacks want to lean on their Offensive Line to grind opponents down on the ground and to give their own Quarter Back a chance to manage the game. Ja'Quinden Jackson has some decent numbers, but he was shut down in the loss to the Aggies and there is likely to be even less room up front against this Tennessee Defensive Line that has impressed so much all year.

Another day of struggle on the ground will really make things tough for Taylen Green at Quarter Back, who has been inconsistent as it is. That has been a source of frustration for Head Coach Sam Pittman, especially as he feels Green has not made the right decisions whenever he has been faced with pressure.

It is very likely that Taylen Green will be under immense pressure in this game with the Razorbacks expected to be performing from third and long situations. Any mistakes will be punished by this Volunteers Secondary that have played well through their first four games and ultimately it gives the road team a big edge.

The Volunteers might not be using an extremely experienced Quarter Back, but Nick Iamaleava is producing at a high level and has helped the team win in a tough environment already. This should mean he is ready to compete, especially with the Bye Week to prepare, and there are likely to be spaces to exploit in the Secondary.

Some of that will be down to the punishing Volunteers Offensive Line that should help the road team establish the run much more effectively than Arkansas when the Razorbacks have the ball. As the competition has ramped up, the Razorbacks have shown they can be attacked on the ground and this Offensive Line might be as good as it gets in College Football.

They have also offered Iamaleava plenty of time when he has dropped back to throw, while being in third and manageable opens up the playbook. It should give the Volunteers an edge as long as their young Quarter Back can avoid the ball-hawking Defensive Backs and Tennessee may be ready to end their three game losing run to the Arkansas Razorbacks in some style.

Tennessee are proving they are a legit team by not only winning games, but covering spreads too and they can be backed to secure another statement victory on the road out of their Bye Week.

MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 18 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 14.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 13.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions - 28.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Indiana Hoosiers - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)

Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)