This has been a week in which I have largely been keeping an eye out on the opening matches at the five tournaments being played and that is because there have not been a lot of options that have hit my criteria to be down as a Tennis Pick.
Some quality players are looking to build some Ranking points, but the lines have been pretty tight, while the majority of the First Round and Second Round matches that have been played have been tough for me to get a really good read on.
The biggest event of the week is the WTA tournament in Abu Dhabi, where a number of top 20 Ranked players are playing, and that is where the focus for the Tennis Picks are for Wednesday.
Belinda Bencic - 3.5 games v Marta Kostyuk: Being inside the top ten of the World Rankings is clearly a positive for any player, but Belinda Bencic must feel her chances of winning a first Grand Slam are getting longer and longer in each passing season. She opened 2023 in pretty strong form with a defeat to Iga Swiatek the only one before the Australian Open, but the Swiss Miss was beaten by Aryna Sabalenka in Melbourne and her wait for a Slam goes on.
A glass half full kind of character would at least point out that the two defeats suffered by Belinda Bencic this season have both come against top quality opponents. And Sabalenka going on to win the Australian Open might suggest that Belinda Bencic is not that far away when it comes to winning a Grand Slam in what is a very open WTA Tour.
Belinda Bencic has shown she has an all-court game with some decent clay court results and she will look at February and March as an opportunity to build some momentum before the run towards the French Open begins. Winning a title in Abu Dhabi at a WTA 500 level will be a real boost for the overall confidence and I do think Bencic is rightly put down as the favourite to win this week.
However, she cannot expect players to roll over for her and this is the first match that Belinda Bencic will have played since her disappointing exit at the Australian Open. On the other hand, Marta Kostyuk reached the Quarter Final in Hua Hin last week and has already won a First Round match here in Abu Dhabi while Bencic was receiving a Bye into the Second Round.
The young Ukrainian has perhaps been at the forefront of other tennis discussions rather than those focused on her actual play, but that leadership quality will help Marta Kostyuk in the future. She has long been seen as a potential Grand Slam Champion and the 20 year old has shown the kind of level she can produce when she is at her best.
Consistency is going to be the key and Marta Kostyuk has yet to find that as often as she would like- her numbers have been decent on the hard courts since the start of the 2023 season, but five of her nine wins have been against players Ranked outside the top 100 and the 4-4 record against the stronger players on the Tour is less encouraging.
The returning numbers have not been good enough as far as Kostyuk is concerned, while she has a 0-5 record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. In that time Marta Kostyuk has won a single set, and her second serve has been a considerable weakness in those matches, which is an area that Belinda Bencic will look to exploit.
Belinda Bencic serves well to put the pressure on her opponents, but there is room for improvement when it comes to the points won against serve. However, there has been a big leap from her overall returning numbers to when Bencic faces players Ranked outside the top 50 on the hard courts over the last twelve months and I do think she can beat Marta Kostyuk as she did in Miami last year.
This one is not likely to be as comfortable as it was in that Masters event, but Belinda Bencic can win and cover this handicap mark.
Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: After their meeting at the Australian Open, Jannik Sinner will be looking to make a much faster start than he did in Melbourne when he found himself 0-2 down in sets to Marton Fucsovics.
They were two close sets and Sinner should have won at least one of those, but he managed to take full control of the match over the remaining three sets and only dropped three more games.
Marton Fucsovics has been on the path back from injury, but there is still work to do as he has dropped back to World Number 69 and the Hungarian was well beaten twice in Davis Cup action this past weekend. He did win a First Round match here and Jannik Sinner has not played since losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open, but it may still not be enough reason to believe Fucsovics can make this a closer match than it ended up being in Melbourne.
My biggest concern with backing Jannik Sinner to cover this kind of line is that he has not always been able to look after his serve as he would like- he has held 83% of hard court service games played in 2023 and Sinner was broken five times by Marton Fucsovics when they met last month. However, the Italian did show some positive improvement in the return part of his tennis over the first month of the season and this Fucsovics serve is still one that is vulnerable as he looks to get back up to full speed.
Over the last twelve months Marton Fucsovics has only held 76% of service games played on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents.
That number has dipped to 62% in the first month of this season against such opponents and I think Sinner can do enough to cover here.
MY PICKS: Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Veronika Kudermetova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Shelby Rogers @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.50 Units (6 Units Staked, - 41.67% Yield)
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