I actually can't quite believe the NFL season is coming to an end, but here we are in mid-February with just the Super Bowl to be played.
My pick from the big game can be read below in what has been another up and down season.
Back in September I did have both of these teams amongst my leading contenders to win the Super Bowl, although the Eagles have perhaps been a much bigger surprise for most. However, they look the team to beat now and I think the narrow favourite for the Super Bowl are likely going to find a way to come out on top on Sunday too.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick: It has felt this might be the Super Bowl clash the fans would be most excited about for a while and the top two Seeds in both the AFC and NFC have both made it through to the Super Bowl LVII.
The Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) have won both of their PlayOff games without too much fuss, although they did earn a Championship Game win over a San Francisco team that did not have a Quarter Back who could throw the ball. There has been plenty of saltiness from the 49ers since the win, although I did think the Eagles would have won anyway, but this team have not been tested nearly as much as the Kansas City Chiefs (16-3).
Both of the Chiefs wins have come by 7 points or fewer against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals and there were plenty of controversy about the win over the Bengals. Some of the officiating was questionable to say the least, but the Chiefs did earn their place in the Super Bowl and they are a much experienced team when it comes to dealing with playing in the big game in February.
Head Coach Andy Reid is facing his former team, one that he guided to the Super Bowl before falling narrowly short against the New England Patriots. He has since won the Super Bowl with the Kansas City Chiefs, but they are 1-1 in the Super Bowl under Andy Reid and the AFC have lost the last two Bowls.
The big question for the Kansas City Chiefs is the health of Patrick Mahomes- the reality is the Chiefs can only really go as far as their Quarter Back will take them and he has had two weeks to get over the ankle injury suffered against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional Round. Personally I am not sure Mahomes can really hope to be at full health, but he is one of a couple of positions on both sides of the ball where the Kansas City Chiefs may feel they have the edge over the Philadelphia Eagles.
However, we saw how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were able to crush the Patrick Mahomes chances two years ago and the Philadelphia Eagles will feel they can slow down this passing game. It has not been as explosive as it was when Tyreek Hill was playing for the Chiefs, while the Philadelphia Eagles Secondary is amongst the best in the NFL and have played at a high level all season.
Stopping Travis Kelce is unlikely, but the Eagles will feel they match up really well with the Wide Receivers that Kansas City will trot out onto the field. There is also the pass rush pressure that the Eagles can generate without having to send the house after the Quarter Back and I do think that will make life tough for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City passing game that has shown an ability to break open the deep threat for much of the season.
As long as he is close to being at full health, Mahomes Magic is likely to be seen at times and you have to have a healthy respect for this Quarter Back and all he has achieved since entering the NFL. And as long as the Coaching staff respect the game, the Chiefs should be looking to establish the run and try and open passing lanes by pounding the rock.
It is not something that Andy Reid enjoys, but the Eagles have continued to show a weakness to the run even when signing veterans to try and plug the Defensive Line holes. Patrick Mahomes is capable of moving the ball with his legs too and I do think the Chiefs have to try and keep the Eagles as honest as possible while this game is close and competitive.
Anything else and it is the Eagles pass rush that may get on top and help the strong Secondary make some big plays for Philadelphia as they look for a second Super Bowl title in six years.
This time the Philadelphia Eagles will be led not by a Quarter Back that has ended the season in hot form, but one that has been a season-long success. Jalen Hurts might not have won the MVP, but that might not be a bad thing considering the last nine winners have all lost when making the Super Bowl (by the way, Patrick Mahomes won this year).
The Quarter Back has proven to be an integral part of the Philadelphia Eagles Offensive unit and the way they want to operate- everyone knows the Eagles want to establish the run and that opens thing up for their big time Receivers, but they are much harder to contain with the threat that Jalen Hurts presents in the RPO approach.
As improved as the Kansas City Defensive unit have been, they have also remained a unit that is weak at controlling the run and this is where I think the Philadelphia Eagles Offensive Line could have a big edge. If the Eagles pound the ball as we know they can, extended drives to wear out the Kansas City Defense will come with the added bonus of keeping Patrick Mahomes and the Offense sitting and cooling down on the sidelines.
I think that is the way the game is going to shake out on this side of the ball, while Jalen Hurts is operating behind a strong Offensive Line that has given him plenty of protection and time when he does want to throw to the likes of AJ Brown. Even a tough Chiefs pass rush may not be able to rattle the Quarter Back and especially not if the Eagles are moving the ball effectively on the ground and just getting those pass rushers wondering when to crash into the line.
Lane Johnson has not been a full participant this week in practice, but he has had two more weeks to deal with an injury suffered towards the end of the regular season and is pivotal to the Eagles chances of success.
I do like Philadelphia to edge this game and it should be a good one.
They just look to have more players that can make an impact across the board on both sides of the ball and Patrick Mahomes may not be able to produce enough magic to drag the Chiefs over the line, at least not with more eyebrow raising calls from the officials as we saw in the AFC Championship Game.
I expect Kansas City to take plenty of motivation from the fact they are the underdog, but they are just 1-1 against the spread in that position this season. At the same time the Philadelphia Eagles are 7-4 against the spread when favoured by less than a Touchdown and I do think they have been the best team in the NFL this season.
Opposing Patrick Mahomes is never easy, but this looks like being a second defeat in the Super Bowl for the Quarter Back as Philadelphia's Defensive unit make a late play to close the Kansas City rally.
MY PICK: Philadelphia Eagles - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
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