Headlines have been earned by a number of underdogs over the first two days at the US Open and a relatively slow start for the Tennis Picks are probably appreciated with so much going on around the grounds.
The Women's defending Champion was beaten on Day 2 and Emma Raducanu will now be able to try and build on her fairytale run in 2021 by playing with less pressure going forward. It didn't do anything for her to be Ranked at Number 11 off the back of one strong tournament and the fact she will be slipping to at least World Number 80 and perhaps even lower may mean she can work on her tennis, rather than her commercial brand building, and try and get back to doing the basics.
I am not convinced we will see that to be honest- Raducanu is made for life after winning the US Open and I would not be surprised at all if she retires in her mid-20s if her Ranking is not vastly improved sooner rather than later. That may be a big statement to make about a Grand Slam Champion, but that was really a miracle couple of weeks and the tennis played over the last twelve months has truly not been good enough.
She is young enough to come again, but a complete change in mentality is likely going to be needed and someone who has gone through three or four Coaches in the space of twelve months suggests to me that the blame is attributed to others rather than someone looking inwards to improve. I might be wrong, time will tell...
The Men's draw is largely intact after the First Round, but the Women's draw looks as wide open as anticipated with a number of former Grand Slam Champions already exiting before the Second Round. Throw a dart onto a board- that may be the most productive way to pick a Women's winner over the next fortnight.
Day 3 looks to be another scorcher in New York City and it is going to be a tough test for all out on the courts. It is a much busier day for the Tennis Picks with the tournament really feeling lime it is underway now and I am hoping for an improvement in results too.
Daniil Medvedev - 8.5 games v Arthur Rinderknech: A dominant First Round win has gotten Daniil Medvedev's defence of his US Open title off to the perfect start and it was a positive day all around for the top Seed. Focusing on his own performance will be the kind of answer you would expect from Daniil Medvedev if you asked if he had seen the other results from the day, but I have no doubt that he will have noted the exit of Stefanos Tsitsipas to further enhance his own chances of making it through to the Final in a little under two weeks time.
The surprising loss for Tsitsipas will also make sure that Daniil Medvedev is very focused on each match as it comes and I do think it will make sure he is not overlooking any opponent that will be placed in front of him.
As one of the stronger hard court players on the Tour as well as being the reigning US Open Champion, Daniil Medvedev is likely going to be asked to cover some big numbers early in the tournament. He was able to do that with little fuss against Stefan Kozlov in the First Round, but the expectation is that Daniil Medvedev will be challenged by Arthur Rinderknech, despite the Frenchman having limited experience of this level of tennis.
Arthur Rinderknech reached the Final at the Vancouver Challenger and that run has to be respected, but he has suffered early losses in the main draw in Indian Wells, Miami and Montreal. Last year he was beaten in the Second Round at the US Open by Carlos Alcaraz and this is a very difficult test for Arthur Rinderknech who is going to have to serve very well to be competitive.
The return game is not really good enough to expect an upset, but Arthur Rinderknech does hold 85% of his service games played over a twelve month period on the hard courts and that makes him potentially awkward. It should be noted again that Daniil Medvedev is a very effective returner of serve and can nullify the rallies very quickly, but Rinderknech may be able to breeze through some of his service games and make it very difficult for the Number 1 Seed to cover.
Daniil Medvedev did make relatively comfortable work of some of his early opponents last year in his run to the US Open title and I do think he can find a way to earn the breaks to do the same here. I am finding it hard to ignore the early losses suffered by Arthur Rinderknech at Masters level on the hard courts, especially as those have not come against players of the quality of Medvedev, and I think there will be at least one set that gets away from the lower Ranked player and gives the defending Champion a chance to make it back to back wins and covers on his way into the Third Round.
Andy Murray - 6.5 games v Emilio Nava: An impressive win in the First Round was not as comfortable as the straight sets win would suggest, but the big question for Andy Murray is whether he can back that up at a venue where he won his first Grand Slam title. He has beaten one of the Seeds in the top half and a number of other Seeded players have already been dumped out of the US Open around the Andy Murray draw, although he is likely going to need at least one more really big win if he is going to return to the second week of a Grand Slam for the first time since the beginning of his big injury issues at Wimbledon in 2017.
In fact Andy Murray has not even reached the Third Round of a Grand Slam since then, but the draw looks to be one that should give him every chance of doing that.
Andy Murray is still a fiery competitor, but he is not at the level he once produced and that is most clear from his return numbers, which are considerably down on his peak levels. Over the last twelve months, Andy Murray has only broken in 21% of return games played on the hard courts, but back in 2016 that number was 35% and it has put additional pressure on a serve that always had one or two vulnerabilities about it.
While he may not be the player he once was, Andy Murray has been stronger in those matches played on the hard courts against players Ranked outside the top 20. Over the last twelve months, Andy Murray has been able to break in 25% of the return games played in that situation and he will certainly hold a considerable experience edge against Emilio Nava.
The 20 year old home hope will receive plenty of support from the crowd in this huge match, but Emilio Nava did have to dig deep and win in five sets in the First Round. The back and forth nature of that match will have taken something away from Nava both mentally and physically, while he has a 1-3 record against top 100 Ranked players on the hard courts this season.
In fact Emilio Nava had lost all six matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface until beating Taro Daniel last week in Winston Salem and the American has struggled to be competitive in those matches. He has not been able to get himself into the return games as well as he would have liked, while Nava's serve has been a weakness as he continues to grow onto the main Tour.
Winning back to back matches has been a very difficult challenge for Andy Murray this season, but I do think he is going to have enough to find the breaks needed to win the match and cover this handicap mark.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 8.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brandon Holt - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniel Elahi Galan - 1.5 Sets @ 2.50 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 6.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sebastian Korda @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Yibing Wu - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Maria Sakkari - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alison Riske - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anett Kontaveit - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
US Open: 6-8, - 6.50 Units (28 Units Staked, - 23.21% Yield)
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