There have already been some big upsets at the US Open and we have not even completed the First Round yet.
In recent years it has been a tournament filled with surprise runs, but I also think the ball they are using at the US Open is one that is largely alien to players and so levels the playing field between the very best and the rest.
This is going to be something to keep an eye on as a wide open tournament moves into Day 2.
A really poor start had me watching the remainder of the Tennis on Day 1 through gaps in the hands and I am feeling almost fortunate to escape a really bad start to the event.
Some of the picks were poor, but I was also a touch unfortunate with a couple of them and I am looking for an improvement on what looks a difficult Day 2 for the selections.
Carlos Alcaraz - 8.5 games v Sebastian Baez: You have to remember that Carlos Alcaraz is still a very young player on the Tour with his first real breakthrough coming at the US Open in 2021. He was Number 55 in the World Rankings ahead of the final Grand Slam last season, but Carlos Alcaraz reached the Quarter Final in fine style and this year he comes into the event as the World Number 4.
However, the fact that he is still relatively young has been highlighted by some of the comments made in recent events.
Carlos Alcaraz has admitted that he has not always coped very well with being a favourite in big events like the Canadian and Cincinnati Masters and it has led to some tougher matches than expected. There is no doubt that Carlos Alcaraz is not playing as well as he was earlier in the year and some may even suggest he is not quite over his French Open Quarter Final loss to Alexander Zverev as Carlos Alcaraz was looking to back up the expectations that had built on his shoulders in the lead up to that event.
The 19 year old may actually benefit from the relatively early losses in Montreal and Cincinnati and you should remember that Carlos Alcaraz has won the Miami Masters already this season. His hard court numbers look very impressive with a strong serve being backed up by a very strong return game and I do think Carlos Alcaraz can impress in this First Round as long as he can play the match with the aggression needed for a hard court.
I think that is the only way Carlos Alcaraz will want to play and it will also mean keeping Sebastian Baez running and preventing the clay court specialist from being able to defend as well as he would like. I really like how Sebastian Baez has played this season, but he is still learning his craft on the hard courts and I am not sure he has the tools to keep Carlos Alcaraz at bay.
Sebastian Baez has not won a hard court match since the First Round at the Australian Open and it should be said that he has largely been uncompetitive in the three losses suffered on the surface this summer. He has not won a set in any of those defeats and three of the six sets lost have been by the same 6/1 scoreline, which is a major concern for Sebastian Baez fans.
The World Number 37 is holding fewer than 70% of his service games played on the hard courts in 2022 and Baez has not been able to get into return games nearly as well as he can on the red dirt.
These two players met on a hard court at the Nxt Gen Finals last November, which are played in a different format to usual set tennis (first to four games to win a set for example), and it was a match dominated by Carlos Alcaraz. The Spaniard faced three break points in that match and managed to avoid being broken, while Carlos Alcaraz broke serve in 44% of return games played.
Barring the expectation getting on top of him, I think Carlos Alcaraz can get on top of this opponent on this surface in the First Round and he should be able to pull clear for a solid win.
Cameron Norrie - 8.5 games v Benoit Paire: Much of his formative years have been spent in the United States as Cameron Norrie decided to take the College route before entering the professional ranks. While many have chosen to turn professional as soon as possible, Cameron Norrie is the latest to come through the US College system to show that it is another effective avenue to success.
The conditions and courts in the United States should be very comfortable for Cameron Norrie who is the British Number 1 and a top ten player in his own right. Hard courts in general have been enjoyed by Cameron Norrie who has won a title and reached two more Finals on the surface, while he was a Semi Finalist at the Cincinnati Masters to underline his own credentials as a potential US Open Champion.
There will be plenty of challenges to overcome if Cameron Norrie is going to win this Slam, but the run to the Wimbledon Semi Final should have motivated him further. He will know it is important to try and get through the early Rounds as quickly as possible, especially in the hot conditions you tend to find at the US Open, and that means trying to get on top of Benoit Paire early and force the Frenchman to perhaps check out of the match.
It has been a big criticism of Benoit Paire throughout his career and I do think the Frenchman has underachieved, while he now sits well outside the top 150 in the World Rankings. I don't think Benoit Paire is someone who will regret his decisions, but all of the time he spent travelling the world and openly admitting that he was not bothered about winning matches has come back to bite him with the World Ranking dropping to where it currently stands.
Benoit Paire did Qualify for the Canadian Masters, but failed to do the same in Cincinnati and also had very early losses in Atlanta and Washington. The Frenchman has not had a winning record on the hard courts since 2018 and is on his way to another losing season, while Benoit Paire has pretty average numbers on both the serve and return.
Over the last twelve months, Benoit Paire has really struggled when facing top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and I do think he will struggle to be competitive in this one if he drops the first set.
The sole previous match between Cameron Norrie and Benoit Paire was won comfortably by the former and that was in January 2019- Cameron Norrie is much improved since then and I think he will have far too much for Benoit Paire, despite the talented Frenchman likely asking one or two questions of the top ten Ranked player.
MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 8.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 8.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
US Open Update: 4-5, - 3.64 Units (18 Units Staked, - 20.22% Yield)
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