There are plenty of matches set to be played on Tuesday when the majority of the First Round matches at the five tournaments are scheduled to go onto the courts around the world.
I will be looking to add any selections from Rio and Delray Beach to this thread, but for now I have selections from Doha, Dubai and Marseille which can be read below.
Corentin Moutet - 3.5 games v Hugo Gaston: The primetime evening session at the ATP Marseille tournament features French players on Tuesday, but the second match may be of more interest from a picks point of view.
That is the match featuring two of the younger ATP players from France after Jo-Wilfred Tsonga and Gilles Simon have met prior to this First Round encounter. In this one Hugo Gaston and Corentin Moutet are facing one another and the poor form of the former has got to be a worry when they meet in Marseille.
Hugo Gaston has only won once in 2022, while the numbers have been really worrying. The left hander has only held 62% of the service games played on the hard courts so far in 2022 and that has placed a big burden on the returning aspect, something that has ultimately broken down the Hugo Gaston game.
He is not a bad return player though and that should give Hugo Gaston some chances to get into the Corentin Moutet serve considering the lower Ranked, but older, Frenchman can sometimes have issues holding on his serve. In 2022 it has been a different story for Corentin Moutet though who has held 84% of the service games played on the hard courts and that is where I think the difference will be made in this match.
Like his opponent, Corentin Moutet has actually returned pretty well, but his serve has been better protected than Hugo Gaston's and I think that will show up to separate the two players on the day. Corentin Moutet has the slightly superior return numbers too and I am going to look for him to produce the better tennis in this match which eventually sees him wear down and beat Hugo Gaston.
In matches between compatriots, there can be a pecking order when it comes to how players deal with one another on the court and I think the older Corentin Moutet will have an edge over Hugo Gaston overall. The latter may start turning his form around, but I think he will have to wait at least one more week to do that and Corentin Moutet can find the breaks of serve to win this one and cover the spread.
Lorenzo Musetti - 2.5 games v Elias Ymer: There is a bright future ahead of Lorenzo Musetti, but the young Italian has yet to find the consistency he would like on the Tour. Plenty of new faces are beginning to make a real impact on the Tour led by Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, but Lorenzo Musetti will feel he has the tennis to challenge those players for the big titles in the years ahead.
A poor Australian summer would have hurt, but Lorenzo Musetti has reached the Quarter Final at the last two tournaments he has played. Some may feel it is a little surprising that the Italian has not decided to play in the events in South America rather than the indoor hard courts, but it may be a learning experience for a player that has been a little inconsistent on this surface.
The returning side of his game has been letting Lorenzo Musetti down, but he may have more joy against Elias Ymer who enters this tournament as a Lucky Loser. Those players can be dangerous having had a couple of matches in the conditions to become accustomed to how the court and the balls are playing, while Elias Ymer also reached the Quarter Final of a hard court tournament played in 2022.
Unlike his brother Mikael, Elias Ymer has yet to really find his feet on the full ATP Tour and remains well outside the top 100 of the World Rankings. Many felt he had the talent to produce more than we have seen and Elias Ymer has yet to crack the top 100, but he has beaten both players from inside the top 100 that he has faced so far this season.
Eiias Ymer may have surprised some with his two top 100 wins considering he was 1-8 in those matches on the hard courts in 2021. His return has been pretty decent in those matches, but Elias Ymer has a serve that can be attacked and that should give Lorenzo Musetti a chance to produce one of his better days in the office.
Last week Lorenzo Musetti actually beat Mikael Ymer in Rotterdam and I think the tennis he will be facing in this one will be similar, although Elias Ymer is not playing at the same kind of level as his brother.
It will be a tough test for the young Italian, but it is one that he can find a way of winning and I think he will be able to cover this spread too.
Taro Daniel + 4.5 games v Andy Murray: After meeting at the Australian Open, Taro Daniel and Andy Murray will face each other once again at the ATP Doha tournament being played this week. This First Round match could be quite interesting after Daniel upset the former World Number 1 at Melbourne Park, but the layers are not convinced there will be much chance of a repeat.
I think that underestimates Taro Daniel who had a very productive Australian summer, although he has not played any competitive tennis since losing in the Fourth Round at the first Grand Slam of the season. His numbers have been very productive behind serve and return in 2022, although the big question for someone like Taro Daniel is how long he can continue to produce at a level that he has not been able to sustain previously.
Taro Daniel has been serving really well, but winning 68% of points played behind that shot is a level that he is unlikely to keep performing at. However, Andy Murray has been a mixed bag in 2022 as he looks to find the tennis that took him to World Number 1 and it can be hard to know what kind of form he is going to bring to the court on a day to day basis.
At his peak, Andy Murray's return was a key part of the successes he was able to have on the Tour, but he hasn't always been able to defend around the court as he did at his best, That has allowed opponents to get on top of rallies and break down Andy Murray, while the British player is only holding 80% of service games played on the hard courts so far this season.
Andy Murray did reach the Final of a tournament in Sydney before the Australian Open begun, but his numbers have been disappointing since then. The service hold percentage has dropped to 72% in the four matches played after the Final in Sydney, and that has to offer Taro Daniel plenty of belief when he arrives on the court.
Their match at the Australian Open was closer than a straight sets win for Taro Daniel would suggest, but it may be a big ask for Andy Murray to turn the result and win by a wide enough margin to cover this spread. If Taro Daniel serves anything like he has been in 2022, I expect him to keep this match tight on the scoreboard and he can be backed with the games being given to him by the layers.
MY PICKS: Corentin Moutet - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lorenzo Musetti - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Taro Daniel + 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
No comments:
Post a Comment