I took a little time away from the Tennis Picks after the Australian Open, but there are some big tournaments to be played through the remainder of February.
This week there are five tournaments across the ATP and WTA Tours and that includes a couple of events with plenty of Ranking points attached in Dubai and Rio.
Monday is usually one of the quieter days of the week as tournaments complete Qualifiers and only a few of the First Round matches are scheduled to be played. I will add any selections from the tournaments in Rio and Delray Beach to this thread, but these will be the opening selections of the week.
Barbora Krejcikova - 5.5 games v Caroline Garcia: Andy Murray once famously stated that he believed Caroline Garcia was going to be the Number 1 Singles player on the WTA Tour, but the career high World Ranking has been Number 4 for the Frenchwoman. That Ranking was earned back in September 2018, but things have been much tougher over recent months and Caroline Garcia needs a big tournament to stop the decline as she has slipped to the edge of dropping out of the top 70 of the World Rankings.
Big points are available to her in Dubai this week, but Caroline Garcia had a poor Australian summer with a single win in four Singles matches played. An early loss at the Australian Open will have really hurt when you think of the performance produced by Caroline Garcia on the day, but now she has to take on players that are going to be amongst the best on the Tour in what is regularly an important tournament in this part of the Middle East.
Soon this will be a tournament that Caroline Garcia will not be able to play in without going through the Qualifiers and it is imperative for her to produce big wins over the coming weeks before heading onto the clay courts of Europe.
Caroline Garcia could have asked for a much easier draw than facing Barbora Krejcikova in the First Round in Dubai- she will have some mental hurdles to overcome having been beaten by this opponent in Australia while winning just two games.
Losses to Madison Keys and Paula Badosa over the Australian summer don't look terrible when you think of how well both of those players are playing, but Barbora Krejcikova has increased expectations as the World Number 3 and as a Grand Slam Champion. The Czech player reached the Final in Dubai last year before really announcing herself as one of the top performers on the WTA Tour, and her numbers on the serve and return so far in 2022 are very encouraging.
It has been the return where Caroline Garcia have really struggled in her matches over the first month of the season and I expect that is going to be an issue for her here. When they met in Sydney, Barbora Krejcikova had 12 break points compared to a single one for Caroline Garcia and I do think the higher Ranked player is going to have the better of the play.
This is a big spread, but Barbora Krejcikova has covered this number of games in both her previous wins against this opponent. With a serve that is pretty decent, Barbora Krejcikova can get her teeth into the return and eventually pull away for a comfortable enough passage through to the Second Round here.
Simona Halep - 5.5 games v Alison Riske: After turning 30 in September last year and with injuries perhaps hindering some of her tennis, Simona Halep may have been at a crossroads in her career. It didn't take long for the Romanian to knuckle down and look to return to the top of the WTA Tour and the main goal for the 2022 season has to be recovering to move back inside the top 10 of the World Rankings.
Her performances in Australia certainly suggest that Simona Halep is capable of doing that in what is a wide open Tour and it was a good start to the year to reach the Australian Open Fourth Round and also win a title in Melbourne. Simona Halep will be demanding more from herself though and will believe she missed an opportunity at the first Grand Slam of the season having looked in very good form before losing to Alize Cornet.
This is a good chance for Simona Halep to keep the momentum going after producing some very strong performances already this season and looking like she is getting back to her best. The serve can sometimes be a little vulnerable, but Simona Halep has been returning really well in 2022 and has won 55% of return points already played.
That is a very impressive number and it is certainly going to be good enough to give Alison Riske plenty to think about, although the American is a hard working player that definitely gets the most out of the talent she possesses. She has regularly been an effective hard court player without pulling up trees, but Alison Riske never shies away from the challenge that is given to her from the top players on the Tour.
Alison Riske has not returned as well as she would have liked in 2022, while her serve is one that can be attacked and that is an issue for her in this match up. At least Simona Halep is unlikely to overpower Alison Riske, but the longer rallies should see the higher Ranked player come out on top enough times to move into a position to cover this spread in this First Round match.
The American has taken a set from Simona Halep in two of the three matches played between them, and their sole hard court match was very competitive. However, I think Halep has been producing the stronger tennis by some distance so far in the early weeks of the season and I think that will be enough for her to attack the Alison Riske serve and work her way to the cover of this spread.
Mikael Ymer - 1.5 games v Richard Gasquet: The 36th birthday is coming up in a few months and injuries have begun to take their toll on Richard Gasquet as he has dropped to Number 77 in the World Rankings. He clearly still has a desire to compete having taken part in a number of Challenger events to close out 2021 as the Frenchman looks to have an Indian summer to his long career.
The numbers suggest it is going to be a tough ask for Richard Gasquet to do that as his body has broken down, although he did reach the Quarter Final in Montpellier following the Australian Open.
However, that tournament was ended by Mikael Ymer who is the opponent he will face in the First Round in Marseille. The Swedish player has struggled to really bring his tennis to the full ATP Tour level, but he has made a positive start to the 2022 season and Mikael Ymer has had plenty of time to get used to the conditions in Marseille having been beaten early in Rotterdam.
He had reached the Semi Final in Montpellier before being beaten by Alexander Zverev and Mikael Ymer beat a couple of Frenchmen at that tournament, including Richard Gasquet. The return game has been hugely important for Mikael Ymer so far this season with breaks in 27% of return games played, and that has been key considering he has a vulnerable serve that opponents do look to attack.
Richard Gasquet hasn't really had the same level of success on the return as Mikael Ymer and that was the case when they met earlier this month. He has only broken in 16% of return games played and won 7% fewer return points than Ymer when these two players met in the Quarter Final in Montpellier and I am looking for Mikael Ymer to frank that form.
I do think it can be hard to trust the younger player when you think of his serve and the vulnerabilities has had on that shot, but Mikael Ymer returned well enough against Richard Gasquet in the two previous matches against him. He has won both of those in France and I think the Swede can complete the hat-trick by seeing off the veteran in the First Round.
When Mikael Ymer has won, he has tended to do so by a good margin and I think he can do that here. Richard Gasquet can give him opponent something to think about with the adjustments he is likely to make, but that may not be enough and I will look for the favourite to move through.
MY PICKS: Barbora Krejcikova - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mikael Ymer - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
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