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Thursday, 30 January 2020

Australian Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2020 (January 31st)

So the Women's Final was set on Thursday and Novak Djokovic overcame a slow start to dominate Roger Federer and move into the Final of the Men's tournament which he is looking to win for the eighth time.

It should be a couple of good Finals regardless of who Djokovic faces on Sunday, but he will be a big favourite and I do think the Women's Final between Sofia Kenin and Garbine Muguruza will be the more competitive of the two to come.

On Day 12 at the Australian Open we only have the one Singles match and that is the second Men's Semi Final. The Tennis Picks had been on a strong run, but Thursday was more difficult with a 1-2 finish.

A stronger start from Novak Djokovic might have helped produce a winning record, but it is what it is and at least the tournament is in a position to produce a positive return. Much will depend on Novak Djokovic going on and winning the Men's Final on Sunday, but we will get to that in a couple of days time.

Dominic Thiem - 1.5 sets v Alexander Zverev: The main reason I am not more bullish about Dominic Thiem's chances to win this Semi Final has to be the fact that he spent over four hours on court to finally edge out Rafael Nadal in the Quarter Final. This is not the first long match the Austrian has had to play at the Australian Open and he is playing a relatively fresh Alexander Zverev who has quietly made his way through the draw.

Prior to the tournament I am not sure either of these players would have been considered genuine Finalists considering their recent records- Dominic Thiem has long played his best tennis on the clay courts rather than the hard courts and had never made a Quarter Final here, while Alexander Zverev had been struggling massively with his serve and had never reached a Quarter Final at a Grand Slam outside of Paris.

However both players have been in very good form and have some solid looking wins on the board. Both have been serving very well, but I have noted that Zverev has just had one or two difficulties on the return in his last couple of matches. He is not winning a lot of points on the return, but Zverev is winning the big points and the German has broken in eight games from twenty break points created in the last couple of matches.

The Zverev serve has been surprisingly effective throughout the tournament despite the fact he looked to be struggling with that shot prior to the Australian Open.

He is going to need all of that against Dominic Thiem whose own serve has been a very important weapon throughout the tournament too as he takes advantage of the conditions. It has given Thiem some freedom when it comes to the return of serve and I think his overall numbers have been a little more consistent than Zverev's which could be key to the outcome of the match.

Their head to head matches shows Dominic Thiem has an edge on the return of serve over Alexander Zverev and that has led to a 6-2 lead. The Austrian is 2-1 on the hard courts having won the last two meetings on the surface including a straight sets win over Zverev at the ATP Finals in London in November.

In the last two matches Dominic Thiem's edge on the return has proven to be quite significant and I think he can use his experiences to win this match. If it goes the distance you would think the fatigue issues could strike Thiem and so I do think he is likely to push to get this done in three or four sets.

Alexander Zverev has been in fine form over the last twelve days, but this has not been a good match up for him and I think Dominic Thiem out-serves him on his way to another Grand Slam Final.

MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 36-30, + 5.48 Units (134 Units Staked, + 4.09% Yield)

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