Weekend Football Picks 2017 (August 19-21)

The second week of the new Premier League season begins on Saturday lunchtime and will be played through to Monday night.

This week is a big one with the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage draws being made on Thursday and Friday respectively and then we get into the final round of domestic League matches before the two international break as the World Cup Qualifiers reach the business end throughout the world.

I hate that international break so soon into the new season, and teams could be trying to gel new faces that have been signed before the transfer window closed. After the long wait for football it feels like we should be allowed to really get our teeth into the new season before having another break, but it does mean the matches will be coming thick and fast in September.


This weekend also sees the beginning of domestic football in the other major European Leagues with Germany, Italy and Spain all getting underway.

It should mean a fun weekend with some top matches to come as we get to see all the top teams in action.


Before we get onto the picks, I will mention the short piece written about Manchester United before the season started. You can read that here and the weekend picks follow below.


Swansea City v Manchester United Pick: You don't want to read too much into the opening weekend of a new Premier League season when results can be a little funny as some teams will naturally be further along with their preparation than others. However Swansea City are going to need to be a lot better than they were last weekend if they are going to contain this Manchester United side.

The goalless draw at Southampton may be seen in a positive for the simple fact that Paul Clement's men earned a point from the game. However Southampton had enough chances to win two games of football and only a lack of composure in front of goal prevented them doing that.

Not many will accuse Manchester United of a lack of composure after ripping apart West Ham United at Old Trafford last Sunday. No one will be patting themselves on the back though and Jose Mourinho will know there is room for improvement which I expect Manchester United to make the more the team gels together in the months ahead.

The goals scored by Romelu Lukaku will give him plenty of confidence though and the likes of Anthony Martial and Paul Pogba adding goals will be encouraging to Manchester United too. The attacking players at the Liberty Stadium should be encouraged if Swansea City defend as poorly as they did at times at Southampton and I do worry for the home team unless they can make some significant transfer moves before the summer transfer window closes.

Swansea City lost Gylfi Sigurdsson to Everton this week and Fernando Llorente is expected to miss out which takes away big attacking options for the home team. They didn't threaten Southampton enough and Manchester United have a strong defensive shape which should lay the foundation for success here.

The home team were beaten by 5 of the top 6 here last season and 4 of those losses have come by at least a couple of goals. 8 of Manchester United's 10 away Premier League wins came by that margin too and I will look for Jose Mourinho's men to make it two wins out of two on Saturday and in impressive fashion too.


Leicester City v Brighton Pick: The last two years have given Leicester City the kind of rollercoaster ride their fans could never have imagined. In fact no one in football would have picked Leicester City as Premier League Champions and then following that up with a run to the Champions League Quarter Final, the best any English club did in the Champions League last season.

Expectations are in a funny place going into the season but most would probably be looking for a top half finish and perhaps a strong run in one of the domestic Cup competitions. Leicester City will also hope to maintain the strong home form of the last couple of seasons which have seen them win 22 of 38 Premier League games here.

Last season Leicester City beat all but one of the teams that finished in the bottom half at the King Power Stadium and they will be confident they can get off the mark for the new season here. Of those 8 wins against teams in the bottom half, Leicester City were able to win 6 of them by at least a couple of goals as their home form proved critical to avoid any relegation concerns.

The Foxes will be hoping to continue the dominance of teams in the bottom half at home when they face Brighton this weekend as the newly promoted side are expected to be fighting to avoid relegation for much of the coming season. Brighton were given a lesson by Manchester City last weekend as to how tough life can be in the Premier League and now they have to head to Leicester City which has proved to be one of the stronger home teams in the Division over the last couple of years.

The layers seem to have recognised that with the price on offer for a Leicester City win, but I will look to back them on the Asian Handicap. A one goal win will offer a profit, but a win by a wider margin could provide solid profits and Leicester City showed last season they can beat the 'lesser' teams in the Premier League at home by comfortable margins.

The goals scored last week will give Leicester City more belief although they will feel they can handle Brighton's attack much better than they did against Arsenal. I will look for The Foxes to come through with a relatively comfortable win on the day and perhaps send Chris Hughton and Brighton searching for further squad members ahead of the transfer window closing.


Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: A big week is coming up for Liverpool with three games in a row at Anfield which can see them make a really positive start to the new Premier League season as well as earn them a place in the Champions League Group Stage. Jurgen Klopp would love to have complete focus on that, but the Philippe Coutinho situation looks likely to continue to dominate his press conferences despite the obvious irritation the German has towards that line of questioning.

At least Liverpool are coming into the weekend off a really positive win in Hoffenheim during the week to erase the memory of the 3-3 draw with Watford which saw Liverpool concede a late equaliser. The attacking performances in both fixtures will give the fans plenty to be excited about, but defensively Liverpool still look way short of the standards you would expect.

Set pieces have been a real bugbear for Klopp's Liverpool to deal with and Crystal Palace do have the size and quality to expose that vulnerable underbelly of the Liverpool defence. However Frank de Boer's new system is going to take some time for the players to be comfortable in and they showed that in their heavy loss to Huddersfield Town last weekend.

David Wagner is from the same school of thought as his 'best man' Klopp and I expect Liverpool to press from the front and look to exploit mistakes in the Crystal Palace passing game as Huddersfield Town did. With the added quality Liverpool have in the final third, I think there is every chance Liverpool can punish The Eagles as effectively as Huddersfield Town did and it could be a long day in the office for the visitors.

Losing Wilfried Zaha takes away a real counter attacking threat from Crystal Palace and I would be really surprised if they could make it four Premier League wins in a row at Anfield. Christian Benteke hurt his former club last season with two goals here, but he will need better all around service than last week and I think Liverpool will be too good on the day.

Even without Coutinho Liverpool have shown they can create chances and score goals and I expect them to do that here at Anfield. The home side can get this week off to a perfect start as Liverpool expose a Crystal Palace still getting settled into Frank de Boer's system and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Southampton v West Ham United Pick: There is plenty of room for improvement for both Southampton and West Ham United after their opening weekend performances in the Premier League. It will be Mauricio Pellegrino who is feeling better than Slaven Bilic going into the week, but there definitely feels like there was more expectation at West Ham United than Southampton.

Having to reverse fixtures due to the athletics at the London Stadium is not ideal for West Ham United even if they have been one of the better away sides in the Premier League over the last two seasons. After the thumping at Manchester United, Bilic may have wanted to get back home in front of their own supporters, but this is out of his hands now.

West Ham United do have a solid enough recent record at St Mary’s and you have to expect an all around better defensive performance than the one produced last Sunday. They will need that as I can’t see Southampton lacking as much composure in the final third as they did in their goalless draw with Swansea City.

It may have been a pretty easy day in the office for Southampton if their strikers had not left their shooting boots on a beach somewhere over the summer. In fact it has been longer than that as Southampton have now failed to score in 6 consecutive home Premier League games which makes it very hard to trust them here.

The odds on quote looks to be all about how the teams have been perceived to have performed last weekend with Southampton a little unfortunate and West Ham United outplayed. However the early weeks of a new season can see performances fluctuate wildly and these teams are perhaps more evenly matched than the layers think.

Southampton as an odds on favourite shouldn’t appeal with the struggles in front of goal, although they created enough chances to be respected. Defensively they have looked sound for the most part and a West Ham United side without Manuel Lanzini may not have the guile to break The Saints down, even without Virgil Van Dijk to call upon.

It feels like this is going to be a close match between these teams and one goal may be enough to decide with the current shyness in front of goal. Picking a winner doesn’t look straight forward but backing two or fewer goals to be shared out looks the call.

Before last season, 5 consecutive games between Southampton and West Ham United on the south coast ended with two or fewer goals and I will look for that trend to get going again on Saturday.


Stoke City v Arsenal Pick: You could almost hear the rustling of paper and cardboard being put away frantically when Arsenal took the lead against Leicester City late in the game last weekend. A vocal minority may have been ready to blast Arsene Wenger and the team when trailing 2-3, but there are more positives which come after a 4-3 opening weekend win.

That hasn’t stopped the layers putting the Arsenal price on the drift this weekend with the poor defending looking like it may play into the Stoke City hands. Set pieces proved to be a real achilles heel for the Arsenal defence last week and that is one area where you would think Stoke City will be able to cause plenty of panic.

Per Mertesacker’s likely availability will help Arsenal, but they have to defend better as a unit if they are going to avoid a defeat here. However if they can get the defending right from set pieces, visiting Stoke City isn’t as daunting as it once was and Arsenal could win here.

They did that very effectively at the end of last season with a 1-4 win here and Arsenal will feel they have the attacking threats to hurt Stoke City even without Alexis Sanchez. Last week they scored four goals from four different sources and Stoke City were massively outplayed by Everton while looking short of confidence.

Mark Hughes is likely to be active in the transfer window over the next couple of weeks, but this current Stoke City squad look short. The change in style means it has become easier to play here for the big clubs and Hughes has to be concerned that Stoke City didn’t beat any team at home that finished above them in the Premier League table.

In fact Stoke City had just 1 win overall against a team that finished higher in the League table and were beaten by the top 5 here at the Bet365 Stadium. They have usually caused plenty of problems for Arsenal but a weaker looking squad that may be short of confidence and only three months ago took a beating from The Gunners is perhaps ripe for the taking.

There is every chance this price drifts a little more to become even more attractive, but I will lock in Arsenal now and back them to win for a second season in a row at a venue they haven’t enjoyed too much.


Huddersfield Town v Newcastle United Pick: A lot of teams will struggle to beat Tottenham Hotspur this season, but Newcastle United fans have to be worried about the standard of the current squad at the club. After earning promotion last season, there was a hope that huge investment would be made but both Rafa Benitez and the fans have been disappointed.

Moves may be made before the end of the transfer window, but this current squad looks short of the standard required in the Premier League. It was the main reason I picked Newcastle United to be one of the sides relegated from the Premier League this season and there has to be a concern that confidence has been knocked ahead of this second game of the season.

The match with Huddersfield Town may be more to Newcastle United's liking when you think how well they played against Championship opposition for much of last season. They won here in the second half of the season which was a part of their best away record in the Division and Newcastle United will feel they can create chances against a Huddersfield Town that will push forward to score the goals to win games.

However Newcastle United have to remember Huddersfield Town had the energy to beat them at St James' Park twelve months ago and the high press worked wonders that day. David Wagner's tactics created errors in the Crystal Palace game which helped Huddersfield Town win comfortably and they will feel they can expose the injuries in the Newcastle United defence.

Jonjo Shelvey's ridiculously selfish sending off has shorn Newcastle United of some of their better quality players and you can see why the home team are favoured. However Newcastle United played well away from home against the top teams which included winning in Brighton and here and they showed they can create chances in those games.

I do expect a more positive approach from Newcastle United than the one they had last Sunday and I expect the players to be more comfortable against the level they face this week. I also think Huddersfield Town will be very positive in the tactics that David Wagner will send his team out with and this could make this a more exciting game than the layers are anticipating.

Both League games between the two teams featured at least three goals last season and I will look for a positive approach from both teams to see that outcome reached at a big price this weekend.


Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: When the fixture list came out in June this was obviously the biggest game in the Premier League in the second week of the new season. Unsurprisingly it was quickly snapped up for television coverage, although Chelsea do come in with more problems than most would envision for the defending Champions.

Injury and suspension have shorn Chelsea of some of their key players, while Diego Costa has been ostracised and decided he won’t even return to the training ground. Selling off players like Nemanja Matic have upset Antonio Conte who has been desperate in calling for reinforcements before the transfer window closes.

All in all this has made Chelsea look vulnerable and the 2-3 home defeat to Burnley would have been another shock to the system.

The question is are Chelsea on the brink of imploding as they did in Jose Mourinho’s final season two years ago, or can Conte right the ship?

I think the latter will eventually occur once some of these early season injuries and suspensions clear up, and I do expect Chelsea to be active in the transfer market in the next two weeks. However this fixture may come a little too soon for The Blues and I am expecting Tottenham Hotspur to take advantage.

Tottenham Hotspur were not at their fluid best at Newcastle United last weekend until Jonjo Shelvey saw the red mist descend, but you can’t worry too much about performances in the early stages of a season. They have the more settled starting line up who will be familiar with the jobs expected of them and I think that makes more of a difference than anything else this weekend.

Obviously playing at Wembley Stadium rather than White Hart Lane changes some of the dynamics of the fixture, but this may be the best way for the players to believe in their new ‘home’ by winning their opening League fixture here.

I don’t want to read too much into Chelsea’s loss to Burnley when everything seemed to conspire against them. However losing Gary Cahill and Cesc Fabregas to suspension is a big blow for Antonio Conte and I think some unfamiliarity with the new partnerships at the heart of the defence and midfield goes against them.

I do think Chelsea have a reaction, but Tottenham Hotspur look the more settled squad and I will look for them to win this fixture at odds against.


Manchester City v Everton Pick: Last weekend we opened the Premier League season with the first Friday Night Football of the season and this weekend we have the first Monday Night Football. It looks a good game on paper and one that will perhaps show what we are going to come to expect from Manchester City and a new look Everton team during the course of the season.

There has been a lot of talk about the improvement Everton have made, but I will be honest and say I would be surprised if they finished in the top six. It would need one of those clubs to really have a poor season, like Chelsea did two years ago, for that to happen and I don’t believe this Everton starting eleven is better than the one they had back in May.

Gylfi Sigurdsson is a good purchase, but I struggle to see him getting into the first eleven of any of the teams that finished above Everton last season.

With that in mind I think Everton may have to settle for a decent Cup run or two and another 7th placed finish in the Premier League. I think that could be highlighted here against a Manchester City team who look strong and with options for Pep Guardiola which is going to make it tough to contain them for the full ninety minutes.

Manchester City won’t have a cakewalk to the Premier League title, because no team really achieves that, but I think they will be much improved from last season if everyone remains fit and healthy.

The big failure for Manchester City last season was the fact they beat only 1 of the top 8 clubs at the Etihad Stadium. However the performances in those games does bode well for them and a little better composure in front of goal and things would have looked a lot brighter for them. Keeping Vincent Kompany fit is huge for them but I do expect better from Manchester City in the big games this time around.

Everton were beaten at 6 of the top 9 clubs last season and half of those losses came by at least two goals. They are an organised team under Koeman which can make Everton tough to beat, but I am expecting the Manchester City pressure to pay off in this one and the home team can wear down their visitors.

I am expecting Manchester City to massively improve the home scoring this time around and I will look for them to beat Everton by a couple of goals in this one.


Bristol City v Millwall Pick: The Championship is already proving how highly competitive it is going to be this season and I have struggled to find any picks I am confident about from the fourth round of fixtures this weekend.

At this stage a watching brief can be the best way forward as teams continue to find new faces to bring in with the transfer window still a couple of weeks away.

The one pick that did stand out comes from Ashton Gate where Bristol City will host Millwall in what feels like could be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. Both Lee Johnson and Neil Harris like to see their teams go forward in search of goals and so far both Bristol City and Millwall have responded.

However neither has looked completely sure of themselves at the back and that should mean chances are created throughout this match. Millwall’s lack of composure against Nottingham Forest in their one away game this season is a concern with some gilt-edged chances missed in that one, but they have since scored 6 goals in 3 home games.

Bristol City have managed at least two goals in 3 of their 4 games this season, but have also only kept a single clean sheet.

With both teams likely circling this kind of fixture as one they ‘can win’, I will look for an exciting, attacking game to develop and at least three goals shared out between them.


Girona v Atletico Madrid Pick: The opening games in every League around Europe can be difficult for every club with the fitness issues meaning the differences in quality between clubs might not always show up.

We do get surprise results and you have to be wary of those, but I do think Atletico Madrid will be too good for the new boys Girona especially having kept Diego Simeone and Antoine Griezmann around.

The transfer ban is a problem in terms of Atletico being able to get closer to Real Madrid and Barcelona domestically, but they still look to be the third best team in Spain.

I expect their continuity will help early in the season and I do think Atletico Madrid will have a little too much experience for Girona to deal with. Girona have worked wonders to make their debut season in the Primera Division and being linked with Manchester City may mean some key players arrive before the transfer window closes to aid them in staying in this Division.

That has to be the only goal for Girona this season, but they are not coming up with a lot of momentum having struggled down the stretch in the Segunda Division. Some of that may have been down to feeling the pressure of earning promotion, but I do wonder if they will be able to compete with the higher level of the Primera Division.

Facing a side who pride themselves on being defensively organised will be a challenge for Girona and Atletico Madrid have had 21 clean sheets in their last 38 away League games.

I expect they can get another one here and I will look for Atletico Madrid to open their season with a narrow win. That should be based on a clean sheet too and I will back Atletico at odds against to win with one of those in the pocket.


Deportivo v Real Madrid Pick: The absence of Cristiano Ronaldo didn’t bother Real Madrid as they brushed Barcelona aside for the second time in a number of days in the Spanish Super Cup. A team who has won four trophies in their last five games has to be full of confidence even without their talisman and Real Madrid are strong favourites to get their season off to a positive start in the Primera Division.

It’s hard to see Deportivo really being able to stay with Real Madrid even if they did beat Barcelona here last season. This is a team who have generally been struggling since returning to the top flight and I am not sure this season is going to be much different for them.

Deportivo were able to raise their game against the top clubs last season, but they have not been able to compete with Real Madrid who bring plenty of firepower to the table.

That feels like being the difference again even if the layers are not so sure without Ronaldo playing. I still think Real Madrid have enough talent to win here by a couple of goals for the fourth season in a row since Deportivo returned to the top flight.

Real Madrid have had competitive matches under their belt which should mean they are to ready to come out of the traps in the Primera Division and they may catch Deportivo out here. The chances Real Madrid create should ensure they have every chance of covering the Asian Handicap on the opening weekend of the season and I will back the current Spanish and European Champions to do that.

MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Southampton-West Ham United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bristol City-Millwall Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)

August 2017/18 Update: 14-14-2, + 0.92 Units (42 Units Staked, + 2.19% Yield)