The final Grand Slam of the year is set to get underway in New York City and I have to say the US Open has always been my favourite Slam as a fan.
This year I will be fortunate enough to be attending in the second week of the US Open so I am hoping the 'big names' can secure their places at that time especially with the top of the men's tournament missing so many of the marquee names.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will be generating most of the headlines over the next two weeks as they try and meet each other at this Slam for the first time, which is still something of a surprise when you think of how well both have played in New York City in their careers.
Watch out for the younger players on the men's Tour who may just have a huge opportunity for a breakthrough at the highest level with Alexander Zverev perhaps the biggest beneficiary of Andy Murray's decision to withdraw from the tournament.
The women's draw looks wide open, although Garbine Muguruza looks to have built on her Wimbledon win in much better fashion than she did when winning the French Open in 2016. I think the Spaniard may be the player to beat here, even if the likes of Karolina Pliskova and the main British hope, Johanna Konta, are both likely to be there or thereabouts.
Venus Williams will be the main home hope in both draws having reached two Grand Slam Finals in 2017 and in the absence of sister Serena, but all in all I am hoping for two brilliant weeks of tennis.
Day 1 on Monday sees half of the First Round matches being scheduled to be played. The weather looks good for tennis today, although the roof at Arthur Ashe Stadium is expected to be in use on Tuesday when rain is scheduled. That may mean the remainder of the First Round matches tomorrow also see some left over for Wednesday, but the Tennis Picks today should all be completed.
Camila Giorgi v Magdalena Rybarikova: This was one of the First Round matches that the layers have struggled to split when the draw was initially made. Since then there has been enough interest in Camila Giorgi to see her price come down to the point she is a favourite to win the match, although still at a reasonable price.
The run at Wimbledon which saw Magdalena Rybarikova reach the Semi Final was a career highlight for the Slovakian, but she has been inconsistent back on the hard courts this past two months. In the three tournaments since Wimbledon, Rybarikova has won back to back matches in only one tournament and she is 5-4 in matches on the hard courts.
Inconsistency has been a real problem for Giorgi too which makes it hard to trust the Italian, but I do think she is capable of winning this match. The run in Cincinnati through the Qualifiers and into the Third Round at that Premier Event has been a part of a stronger second half of the season for Giorgi and in that time she was also able to beat Rybarikova without a dropping a set too.
It was the superior performances at the break points which helped Giorgi win that match against Rybarikova despite the latter earning double the amount of break points during the match. The serve is going to be all-important to this match too with Giorgi perhaps slightly stronger on the surface judging the statistics.
Rybarikova has been able to win more return points on the hard courts, but only by a narrow margin over Giorgi and I think the latter will have the slight advantage behind serve. There would be no surprise if this match needs a third set to decide things and Rybarikova has been strong when matches have gone the distance, but I will be looking for Giorgi to frank her narrow win over Rybarikova from the Cincinnati Premier Event Qualifiers by winning this First Round match.
Johanna Konta - 5.5 games v Aleksandra Krunic: A strong run at Wimbledon raised the hopes of a nation, but I think most tennis fans who watch more than the limited grass court season will believe the hard courts offer Johanna Konta the best chance of winning a maiden Grand Slam. Winning titles in Sydney and, in particular, Miami will have raised those beliefs and I think Konta will go some way over the next two weeks.
The First Round matches can be difficult with nerves and expectation perhaps making things tougher than they should be for the top Seeds in the draws. That has to be watched for Konta who has had disappointing efforts in the Canadian and Cincinnati Premier Events in preparation for the US Open.
However the losses to Ekaterina Makarova and Simona Halep came against players higher up the World Rankings and against players in strong form. I am not sure Aleksandra Krunic can reach the same level as those two players and especially not for long enough to earn the upset in the First Round.
Thee isn't a lot of hard court form to lean back on for Krunic and the pressure will come if Konta is serving up to the level she can. Reaching that level will mean Konta is holding serve well enough to keep Krunic in a tough position to keep the British Number 1 off her when it comes to protecting her own service games.
Last year Krunic worked her way through the US Open Qualifiers before winning just a single game in the First Round of the main draw. I don't imagine she is going to be beaten as easily as that, but Konta has proven she is very strong on the hard courts and can cover this number of games to get her final Grand Slam of 2017 off to a strong start.
Sloane Stephens - 4.5 games v Roberta Vinci: After a couple of rough outings on her return to the Tour, Sloane Stephens has to be feeling very positive about the way the hard court season has shaped up for her. Reaching the Semi Final at back to back tournaments in Toronto and Cincinnati and beating some of the better players on the WTA Tour will have given the American confidence, although we can't ignore the fact she did ride her luck on a number of occasions.
Facing an opponent who reached the US Open Final just two years ago would usually be seen as a big test for anyone, but Roberta Vinci has just shown signs of decline as the 34 year old Italian has slipped down the World Rankings. This is going to be the nineteenth tournament Vinci has played in this season, but she has won back to back matches just three times and the hard court season has not been a good one for her.
Vinci has lost three of the four matches she has played on the hard courts since Wimbledon and she is just 5-10 on the surface in 2017. Eight of the ten losses Vinci has suffered on the hard courts would have seen her fail to cover this number of games and I do think she could be put under pressure by Stephens who has been playing well over the last month.
My one concern is the number of games being asked to cover by Stephens who has not dominated matches despite finding a way to get the win on the board. Stephens would have covered this number of games in half of the eight wins she has earned over the last month in Toronto and Cincinnati but I will be looking for her to take enough advantage of the Vinci serve to get this done.
The Italian can serve well when she is feeling confident, but that can't be the case going into Flushing Meadows and I will look for Stephens to find her way to a 7-5, 6-3 win in this First Round match.
Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 games v Ana Konjuh: If this match was played earlier in the 2017 season I would have expected Ana Konjuh to perhaps be favoured by the same amount as Ashleigh Barty is in this First Round match. However the form shown by the Australian who has returned to the tennis Tour has been much stronger in recent weeks than Konjuh's and I think she can get the better of her opponent here.
Both Barty and Konjuh have stronger serves than people may think and both will be looking to earn the first strike in the rallies behind the first serve which should bring up a short reply. The key for the two players in this match is making use of the second serves they see and the similar numbers produced by Barty and Konjuh means it should be a competitive match.
I believe the difference comes from the confidence the two players could be able to lean on in tough moments. Barty's Ranking means she has had to play the Qualifiers in both Toronto and Cincinnati, but she has put together eight wins all together which has seen her reach the Third Round in each event.
Losses to Garbine Muguruza and Caroline Wozniacki won't have dented too much of the Barty confidence and she has to be feeling better than Konjuh who has now lost three matches in a row. Like Barty, a couple of those losses have come against decent players, but a run without wins can knock anyone's confidence and I do think that is what is going to separate these players on the day.
Konjuh did reach the Quarter Final here at the US Open twelve months ago so the conditions and environment will be in her favour. However the hard court form in 2017 has been a little erratic and I will be looking for Barty to get the better of the big moments and earn a 6-4, 6-4 win to move into the Second Round.
Pauline Parmentier - 1.5 games v Oceane Dodin: This is a good opportunity for either Pauline Parmentier or Oceane Dodin to make it through to the Second Round of a Grand Slam tournament with both players likely to be looking at this as a good chance to progress. There are some real question marks around both players, but the difference between the compatriots comes from two matches that were played earlier in 2017.
Parmentier and Dodin played at the Indian Wells and Miami Premier Events on the hard courts and both times it was the older Frenchwoman who was able to make it through to the next Round. Parmentier lost six games when they played in Indian Wells and then halved that in Miami by losing three games to Dodin and I do think the current form of the latter is not exactly going to make it easy for her to turn that around.
She did reach the Semi Final in Washington but First Round losses in Toronto and Cincinnati will have knocked some of the confidence from Dodin. She actually retired with some issue in Toronto before losing 6-3, 6-0 in Cincinnati the following week and Dodin will have to do something very different to get the better of Parmentier.
The lack of hard court tennis this summer is a concern for Parmentier, having failed to play in a main draw after losing in Qualifiers in New Haven last week. That does make me lose a bit of belief in backing Parmentier, but the way she was able to dominate Dodin in both Indian Wells and Miami changes the feeling.
I do think Parmentier may need an extra set to get it done here, but I will be looking for her to get the better of this number of games as she moves past her fellow Frenchwoman.
Carla Suarez Navarro - 5.5 games v Ipek Soylu: All credit has to be given to Ipek Soylu for working her way through three Qualifiers to make her debut in the US Open main draw. The young Turkish player has produced her best performances on the Doubles circuit so far in her career, but the three wins earned this week may give her some belief in her Singles game.
This First Round match is a big test for Soylu who faces Carla Suarez Navarro who was once in the top ten of the World Rankings. The Spaniard has had a difficult twelve months which has seen her slip back, but she continues to play at a much higher level than her opponent and even a par performance will see her produce enough to move into the Second Round.
The hard court preparation could have gone better for Suarez Navarro, but she is up against opponents who are at a much higher level than the one she will meet in the First Round at the US Open. While she may only be 3-3 on the hard courts this summer, Carla Suarez Navarro can use her experience to negotiate the early Rounds at the US Open.
One concern for the Spaniard has always been the vulnerable serve but even that she is capable of protecting against players Ranked much lower down the World Rankings. That is backed up by her numbers against players Ranked outside the top 100 on the hard courts in recent years.
I expect that to show up when she meets Ipek Soylu in the First Round especially as the Turkish player just hasn't had the experience of playing the best players on the Tour. Soylu has never beaten a top 100 Ranked player having gone 0-13 in that time and eleven of those losses would have seen her fail to cover this number. I think that will happen again as Suarez Navarro wears her down and produces a 6-4, 6-2 win.
Joao Sousa - 1.5 sets v Paolo Lorenzi: Despite the top of the men's draw losing so many of the players that would have been Seeded, no one is going to expect Joao Sousa or Paolo Lorenzi from reaching the business end of the US Open event. However the First Round draw will have given both players belief that they can at least earn some solid World Ranking points which will keep them in a position to earn automatic entry into some of the big events for the rest of the season and going into 2018.
It is no surprise that Sousa is the favourite in this First Round match considering he has beaten Lorenzi in all three previous matches they have played. A couple of those matches have come down to a third set though, but even then I would suggest the surface is one that Sousa will enjoy more than his Italian opponent.
Neither player has a lot of form to fall back upon over the last month, but Sousa did produce some solid wins at the Cincinnati Masters before going down in the Second Round. He had to Qualify for that tournament but it is about as well as Lorenzi has done in the three events he has played in and overall Sousa is the superior hard court player.
The numbers do seem to back that up with Sousa getting a little more from his return game than Lorenzi and moving into a position to break serve in more games than his opponent. Neither has a great serve which means the break points should be fairly frequent, but Sousa's head to head with Lorenzi and hard court performances should see him come through.
I imagine this will be played with a clay court feel as both players will look to get involved in the rallies and try and wear the other down. To that extent I think Sousa may just have slightly more success which can give him the edge over the course of three or four sets and I will look for Sousa to cover the set handicap in this First Round match.
Gilles Muller 3-0 v Bernard Tomic: This is going to be the first time Bernard Tomic has played a competitive tennis match since Wimbledon when he admitted in a post-match new conference that he hadn't tried as he could. The Australian went on to admit that tennis is not something he loves and is simply a job for him, while also stating that he doesn't always produce his best as he loses his focus.
I am not sure the fans will have forgotten those words so I don't expect Tomic to receive a lot of support in this First Round match. It doesn't help that his opponent is going to be respected so much for a solid 'Indian Summer' to his career as well as the fact that Gilles Muller made so many positive headlines at Wimbledon.
It hasn't been so positive for Muller on the hard courts since the end of his Wimbledon fairytale run to the Quarter Final, but this is a match up that has been good to him in his career. He has beaten Tomic in four of his fie previous matches including three wins on the hard courts and I do wonder if the Australian is here to make a point or pick up another paycheque.
Tomic hasn't played any hard court tennis in preparation for the US Open and while the service numbers have been solid enough on the surface over the last year, he is also someone who has struggled on the return. That can show up against someone who serves as well as Muller can and I do think this match will be dictated by the higher Ranked player.
Backing any player to win in straight sets can be tough in a best of five set match because there are some fluctuations in performance over the longer format. However there is every chance Tomic 'gives up' if he does make a slow start and fall a set behind and Muller is likely to play at the same consistent level throughout which helps him move through to the Second Round without dropping a set in this match.
Daniil Medvedev v Denis Shapovalov: Two of the young and brightest talents on the men's Tour will be meeting in the First Round of the US Open and it is Denis Shapovalov who is considered the favourite to beat Daniil Medvedev.
That will have been influenced by his three Qualifier wins as well as the wonderful run to the Canadian Masters Semi Final earlier this month. I have to respect those performances, although I will say that Shapovalov was perhaps a little fortunate to have won at least a couple of the matches that he did win in Montreal.
His form has also been superior to Medvedev's in recent weeks as the young Russian player has lost four matches in a row. That began with a Quarter Final loss in Washington, but First Round losses to Adrian Mannarino, Fabio Fognini and Kyle Edmund were disappointing. A couple of those were very close losses though and I do think Medvedev is being under-rated in this First Round match.
Denis Shapovalov does look the flashier player, but the raw numbers are perhaps not as good as the young Canadian would like. While the serve is a decent weapon, Shapovalov has not been able to produce the same goods on the return and I do think Medvedev's returning numbers have been much stronger over the course of the season.
And it isn't like Medvedev's own serve is a weak part of his game so I do think the Russian can get the better of his fellow youngster in this one. I would expect Medvedev's experience at a higher level for longer than Shapovalov helps here and the expectation is all on the latter having been set as the favourite, which may just help Medvedev's cause.
I imagine it will be a tight match, but I will look for Medvedev to work his way to a four or five set victory as the underdog.
MY PICKS: Camila Giorgi @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 5.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pauline Parmentier - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Joao Sousa - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller Win 3-0 @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
No comments:
Post a Comment