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Friday, 16 June 2017

Tennis Picks 2017 (June 16th)

This has been an inconsistent week for the tennis picks, but I am never going to be disappointed when a winning week is being put together.

That is still in the balance with three more days for the tournaments in Hertogenbosch, Nottingham and Stuttgart still to be played. Thursday did prove to be another day with more winners than losers, but it just takes one really bad day to turn things into a negative despite three days of producing the wins.

On Friday we are down to the Quarter Finals in all of the tournament taking place this week. While that means there are sixteen main draw Quarter Final matches to be played, my focus is solely in Stuttgart from where I have made three picks.

Philipp Kohlschreiber - 1.5 games v Lucas Pouille: Both Philipp Kohlschreiber and Lucas Pouille had to dig deep to win their Second Round matches to move into this Quarter Final showdown on Friday. The oddsmakers are expecting a tight match with both players showing some decent form on the grass courts in their careers, but I am favouring the home player Kohlschreiber to win this one.

There is very limited grass court matches to take into consideration from 2017 and it feels like Pouille might be a touch overrated on his run to the Quarter Final at Wimbledon last year. He should really already be out of this tournament having struggled to deal with the Jan-Lennard Struff serve and also saving a boatload of break points in that match.

Kohlschreiber's win over Steve Johnson looks the strong one on paper and he didn't play badly in that match against a competent grass court player. The serves are similar, but Kohlschreiber should have the edge when it comes to the backhand battles and Pouille also had a pretty terrible record on the grass prior to the run at Wimbledon.

There also has to be the respect for the way Kohlschreiber tends to play at home and I will be looking for him to battle past Pouille with a 7-6, 6-4 win in this one.

Mischa Zverev - 1.5 games v Tommy Haas: This was supposed to be a farewell tournament for Tommy Haas who has struggled with injuries through his career but wanted to go out on his own terms. There won't be too many more chances to play at home for Haas and so being able to somehow produce a win over Roger Federer will be a memorable moment for him.

It will have been an emotional win for Haas who has now invested a lot of energy into his two wins here in Stuttgart. That will have taken both a physical and mental toll on the veteran and even a day of rest between matches may not be enough for Haas to be able to produce his best in this Quarter Final.

No one will doubt that Haas' best days are behind him despite him turning back the clock and playing some fantastic tennis at key times in his win over Federer. However the accumulated tiredness is a concern as well as the fact that Mischa Zverev is going to keep attacking the net and putting Haas into tough positions to pass.

Haas has played someone who plays a similar style as Zverev when beating Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the First Round, but rode his luck to do so. Zverev has played well so far this week, albeit against players who were perhaps overmatched, and I think his serve-volley game can give Haas some real problems.

I am just not anticipating Haas is going to be able to keep finding the tennis to escape the tough spots he has been in this week. I think Zverev is able to come through with a 7-6, 6-4 win as he wears down Haas.

Benoit Paire v Jerzy Janowicz: Backing Benoit Paire in back to back matches is a very brave decision, but I have been impressed with the numbers he has produced so far this week. Serving well and making the most of his return games has helped Paire come through the draw to the Quarter Final and I like the Frenchman to win this as the underdog.

He doesn't have a deep grass court pedigree, but he has shown he can clearly play on the surface. However you can understand the layers having Jerzy Janowicz down as the favourite when you think of the big game the Pole has and how well suited that should be to the grass.

On the face of things, Janowicz also has a couple of quality wins this week as the underdog, but the numbers do tell a different tale. In both of the matches this week Janowicz has won less return points than his opponent and it is only missed opportunities at break point compared with the Pole's clinical play at that time making the difference.

He will likely need more of the same to get through to the Semi Final, but Paire has shown signs of being focused this week. That can be a false dawn to thinking Paire will be able to do that consistently over the course of a tournament, but he has shown solid serving and that should give him every chance in this one.

The return stats have also been solid enough and I will look for the Frenchman to win this one as the underdog.

MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mischa Zverev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benoit Paire @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 13-10, + 3.76 Units (46 Units Staked, + 8.17% Yield)

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