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Saturday, 10 June 2017

French Open Tennis Day 15 Picks 2017- Men's Final (June 11th)

Men's Final- Stan Wawrinka vs Rafael Nadal
This is arguably the Final most would have hoped for at the beginning of the French Open as Stan Wawrinka looks for a fourth Grand Slam title which amazingly would see him surpass Andy Murray's number.

Wawrinka has never lost a Grand Slam Final in his previous three occasions being in the Final, but he has to take on Rafael Nadal who is looking for a simply ridiculous TENTH title at the French Open. The Spaniard has won all nine previous Roland Garros Finals and this looks an interesting match between the stand out players of the last fortnight.

Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: Once Stan Wawrinka blew the third set of his Semi Final against Andy Murray, I was not convinced he would have the fortitude to bounce back and win that match. To my surprise Wawrinka took a tight tie-breaker in the fourth set before running away with the fifth, although I have questions as to how much he invested both physically and mentally into the Semi Final.

You would have to be foolish to completely ignore it, although I can't have Wawrinka using fatigue as a complete excuse considering the straight sets wins he has had all week. Against most players the Semi Final success wouldn't really be a big factor for me considering how strong Wawrinka is, but the fact he is playing Rafael Nadal in what looks to be peak form does make that a bigger factor than normal.

Wawrinka has chances in this one with the way he has been returning, and he has beaten Nadal on the clay courts before. However there are a lot of 'ifs' around the Wawrinka game which makes it tough to really believe he can cause what would be a big upset in my mind.

If Wawrinka serves at his best and if he is able to recover from Friday's Semi Final and if Wawrinka is able to penetrate the Nadal defences with winner after winner, the Swiss star can win this match. However that feels like a lot of things needing to go right and also Nadal to slip off a level of complete and utter dominance that he has produced for basically the entire clay court season.

Forget about sets, Nadal is barely losing games at the moment and it may be a demoralising experience for Wawrinka if he is not able to get in front early on. The first set feels more important than usual for Wawrinka who might just lose some heart if Nadal is able to take his best shots, while the physical pain may also be revealed at that point.

Nadal has been returning so well and putting constant pressure on his opponents which has seen them crack. He looks focused and I think Wawrinka's run of successes at the Grand Slam Final level will come to an end here.

After a tight first set, I can see Nadal beginning to wear down Wawrinka who tries to hit the ball harder and harder to keep up with what the Spaniard is producing. It has been over twelve months since Nadal and Wawrinka last met, but both will be familiar with what the other is going to do against them.

I will be expecting Nadal to try and blunt Wawrinka early before pulling away with a 7-5, 6-3, 6-3 kind of win.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

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