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Saturday, 28 January 2017

Australian Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2017- Women's Final (January 28th)

The tournament organisers for the Australian Open may not have been able to pick two more popular Finals than the ones that have been set up this season.

There are plenty of easy storylines from the Venus Williams versus Serena Williams Women's Final and the Roger Federer versus Rafael Nadal Men's Final that you have to think all eyes of the sporting world will be focused on Melbourne over the next two days.

Whoever is successful over the next couple of days are going to be popular winners and the Australian Open 2017 will go down as one of the more memorable Grand Slams of recent years.

It has also been a very good one for the picks which have produced some very good numbers over the last two weeks after some really poor ones to open the tournament. The turnaround from Day 5 to now has been significant and will be something that will hopefully set the tone for the rest of the 2017 season after a couple of tough years.

Not every week is going to be as good as the one I just had, but the key is to try and limit the damage on those bad weeks and pick up big numbers when things are going the way I have anticipated. That's the perfect way of doing things, but not always as possible as I would want in what is always a long grind to try and get on the right side of the numbers.

Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Venus Williams: When Venus Williams and Serena Williams last played in a Grand Slam Final at Wimbledon in 2009, it was elder sister Venus who went into the Final as the favourite. She had won three of four Wimbledon titles prior to that Final so it was not a big surprise, but it was Serena who came through the stronger and she has continued to dominate women's tennis ever since.

Injury and illness didn't help Venus since 2009, but she did reach two Quarter Finals and one Semi Final at the Slam level in 2010 before those began to really affect her. Up until the Australian Open in 2015, Venus Williams had only reached one Fourth Round as her best result in the Grand Slams in the previous four years.

Things have definitely looked better for Venus Williams in the last two years although this might be the last chance she really has to add to her seven Grand Slam titles. Her run through the draw has been impressive, but Venus is yet to play someone of the level of baby sister Serena and it has been much tougher graft for the 36 year old Venus.

That might take its toll in the Final against an opponent who has been playing very well in the entire tournament. Serena Williams' win over Johanna Konta, and the manner of the win, is the most impressive result either has had in the event and Serena should also be much more rested than Venus having breezed through her last two matches compared with Venus who has had to battle much harder.

There are some similarities in their games with both possessing a powerful serve that can set up the rest of their game, while Venus is better at the net and Serena has the bigger forehand. Baseline rallies should be dominated by Serena for the most part and I do think this is a really big test for Venus and one she is not likely to be able to pass.

Nerves can play a part with Serena on the brink of breaking Steffi Graf's record, while it will be emotional as Serena will likely know Venus won't have a better chance to win another Grand Slam. However I do think Serena has been able to put her attachment to Venus to the back of her mind much more effectively than Venus does and that can be important in deciding the outcome.

Matches between these siblings have tended to be close and competitive with the power on display meaning the player with the first strike tends to dominate. However Serena does tend to get a little more joy out of her serve consistently and I think she will be able to break down the Venus forehand the longer this match goes and I will look for her to win this match with a fairly comfortable margin.

It's been a great run for Venus Williams, but I am looking for Serena Williams to make a bit more history with a 6-4, 6-3 win in the Final on Saturday.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 48-35, + 24.10 Units (160 Units Staked, + 15.06% Yield)

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