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Saturday, 10 September 2016

US Open Tennis Day 13 Picks- Women's Final 2016 (September 10th)

The US Open can sometimes be a bit of anti-climax of a tournament, especially in recent years when the athletic ability of the players on the court sees energy levels sapped at this time of the season. This has always been my favourite Grand Slam and I think the 2016 edition has produced some really top quality matches in the second half which will make this one of the better events held in New York City.

On Saturday we have the Women's Final between Angelique Kerber, the new World Number 1, and Karolina Pliskova. It might not be the 'Dream Final' between Kerber and Serena Williams, but the German is fully deserving of her Number 1 spot having reached three of the four Grand Slam Finals in 2016.

I am anticipating a good Final though with both players in strong form and the contrasting ways they play should make it fun for the fans.

Angelique Kerber - 2.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: I had a look at what I had wrote about Karolina Pliskova on the first day of the tournament which I have extracted here:

The likes of Sam Stosur (2011) and Flavia Pennetta (2015) have won titles at Flushing Meadows and wouldn't have had a lot of backers when they did. The three years in between have been dominated by Serena Williams but this is a tournament that can see a surprise winner and the big prices that perhaps appeal the most are Petra Kvitova and Karolina Pliskova who have had solid summers.

I don't think either player can be massively trusted, but if they can build some steam up in the tournament and Serena Williams is shocked in the First Round and you never know. Pliskova has a terrible Grand Slam record, but I have a feeling she is the kind of player who will suddenly put seven wins together and her tournament success in Cincinnati has to be respected.

Now I don't know about you, but I think the last two weeks have basically backed up my feelings about her pre-tournament although I am not sure she will go on and win the seventh match I had suggested. The success in Cincinnati included a win over Angelique Kerber in the Final when she dropped just four games and Pliskova has been serving well enough to think she can beat any player on the WTA Tour.

So far she has handled the nerves so impressively that Pliskova has to be respected in this Final, but I am not sure if she will eventually betray her feelings. The win over Serena Williams was very impressive, but the former World Number 1 might not have been at 100% and the Pliskova serve is likely to be tested by the ability the new World Number 1 has when it comes to the return of serve.

While the manner of her defeat to Pliskova will play a part in this one, I also think Kerber was coming in much more physically affected after three long weeks on the Tour than she will be in this one. Kerber hasn't dropped a set in the tournament and that should mean she is going to be able to run as much as she needs to as she tries to break down the Pliskova serve.

There is a clear edge for Pliskova from the serve, but Kerber is the better player when the rallies are extended and has the experience edge thanks to her two previous Grand Slam Finals in 2016. I think that is going to be important for her and at some point Pliskova is going to realise the situation she is in and I think at that point things will begin to get tight for her.

Matches between these players have been competitive, but I am looking for Kerber to underline her position as the new World Number 1 with a battling 75, 46, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

US Open Update: 39-37, + 10.18 Units (144 Units Staked, + 7.07% Yield)

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